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01.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-11

Density estimation for Hellinger via minimum-distance estimators: mixtures of Gaussians, log-concave, and more

arXiv:2606.11469v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We study the task of density estimation, where we hope to accurately estimate a probability density from $n$ samples. A textbook method for density estimation in total variation distance is the minimum-distance estimator approach, where we conclude both the algorithm and the analysis merely from bounding the VC dimension of a particular concept class (the so-called Yatracos class). While this technique has originally yielded sharp guarantees primarily for total variation distance, in this work we extend the minimum-distance estimator approach for learning within Hellinger distance. Our main observation is that we may produce an analogous recipe for Hellinger (where we only require bounding the VC dimension of a related concept class) by drawing connections to recent results yielding reverse data processing inequalities. This recipe is flexible enough to accommodate fast algorithms originally designed for total variation distance; by modifying the approach of Acharya et al. (2017) we conclude the first near-linear time algorithm for learning classes including univariate mixtures of log-concave densities and mixtures of Gaussians (with arbitrary variances), with near-optimal sample complexity.

02.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-15

Equivariant Representation Learning via Class-Pose Decomposition

arXiv:2207.03116v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We introduce a general method for learning representations that are equivariant to symmetries of data. Our central idea is to decompose the latent space into an invariant factor and the symmetry group itself. The components semantically correspond to intrinsic data classes and poses respectively. The learner is trained on a loss encouraging equivariance based on supervision from relative symmetry information. The approach is motivated by theoretical results from group theory and guarantees representations that are lossless, interpretable and disentangled. We provide an empirical investigation via experiments involving datasets with a variety of symmetries. Results show that our representations capture the geometry of data and outperform other equivariant representation learning frameworks.

03.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-15

Nonlocal Bayesian Modeling of Continuous Spatio-Temporal Dynamics

arXiv:2606.14313v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Real-world spatio-temporal forecasting must handle irregular time points, spatially sparse observations, and the need for uncertainty quantification. This setting is often further compounded by nonlocal interactions (long-range spatial coupling). Modeling continuous-space, continuous-time nonlocal dynamics naturally leads to infinite-dimensional integro-differential equations (IDEs), making principled Bayesian inference intractable. We propose the NonLocal Bayesian Spatio-Temporal model (NLBST), a hierarchical Bayesian framework for continuous spatio-temporal fields that learns explicit nonlocal coupling while retaining tractable inference. NLBST represents the latent field via a coordinate-based spatial basis expansion and models the coefficient process with a continuous-time ODE whose learnable linear operator corresponds to a Galerkin reduction of a nonlocal IDE; a Neural ODE residual captures additional nonlinear dynamics. A linear-Gaussian observation model enables Kalman-style sequential updates under missing and irregular observations, while the spatial basis representation enables inductive prediction at unmeasured locations without retraining. Global parameters are learned via variational inference, and uncertainty is handled through a Bayesian hierarchy. Experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate strong forecasting and spatial generalization with well-calibrated uncertainty, yielding substantial gains over baselines in strongly nonlocal and partially observed regimes.

04.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

ReportQA: QA-Based Radiology Report Evaluation

Radiology report evaluation is essential for advancing automated report generation. Natural language generation metrics have limited clinical relevance. Clinical efficacy (CE) metrics evaluate important medical findings, but focus mainly on presence and cover only a limited set of entities. Due to heavy reliance on manual annotations, it is difficult for CE metrics to extend clinical entities or attributes. In clinical practice, radiology reports serve as a medium for information transfer. Clinicians use them to perform downstream diagnostic tasks without directly inspecting images. Based on this insight, we propose ReportQA, a clinical-related and flexible radiology report evaluation framework, supporting detailed quantitative analysis of radiology report generation systems. We first collect datasets covering multiple imaging modalities and anatomical regions. We then construct knowledge trees of clinical entities and attributes with radiologist guidance, and use large language models (LLMs) to extract structured information from raw reports. Next, we generate QA pairs from predefined templates and apply quality control through self-filtering and report-based filtering. During evaluation, the report is treated as context, and an LLM acts as a judge model to answer the QA pairs. Based on the resulting QA accuracy, we introduce QAScore metric. Compared with existing metrics, QAScore shows better alignment with radiologist judgments. Experiments on multiple state-of-the-art vision-language models reveal that current report-based inference paradigms struggle to learn fine-grained clinical representations and exhibit strong negative prior biases. In contrast, question-driven inference provides a more effective alternative. For reproducibility and extensibility, we release the knowledge trees, structured reports, and QA pairs, along with the pipeline code for QA construction and evaluation.

05.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

RoboSSM: Scalable In-context Imitation Learning via State-Space Models

arXiv:2509.19658v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: In-context imitation learning (ICIL) enables robots to learn tasks from prompts consisting of just a handful of demonstrations. By eliminating the need for parameter updates at deployment time, this paradigm supports few-shot adaptation to novel tasks. However, recent ICIL methods rely on Transformers, which have computational limitations and tend to underperform when handling longer prompts than those seen during training. In this work, we introduce RoboSSM, a scalable recipe for in-context imitation learning based on state-space models (SSM). Specifically, RoboSSM replaces Transformers with Longhorn – a state-of-the-art SSM that provides linear-time inference and strong extrapolation capabilities, making it well-suited for long-context prompts. Through diverse experiments on the LIBERO benchmark, we demonstrate the effectiveness of applying SSMs to ICIL, achieving improved generalization to both unseen and long-horizon tasks than Transformer-based ICIL methods by handling longer contexts at test-time. These results show for the first time that SSMs are an efficient and scalable backbone for ICIL. Our code is available at https://github.com/youngjuY/RoboSSM.

06.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Semi-Supervised Noise Adaptation: Transferring Knowledge from Noise Domain

arXiv:2606.00558v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Transfer learning aims to facilitate the learning of a target domain by transferring knowledge from a source domain. The source domain typically contains semantically meaningful samples (*e.g.*, images) to facilitate effective knowledge transfer. However, a recent study observes that the noise domain constructed from simple distributions (*e.g.*, Gaussian distributions) can serve as a surrogate source domain in the semi-supervised setting, where only a small proportion of target samples are labeled while most remain unlabeled. Based on this surprising observation, we formulate a novel problem termed *Semi-Supervised Noise Adaptation* (SSNA), which aims to leverage a synthetic noise domain to improve the generalization of the target domain. To address this problem, we first establish a generalization bound characterizing the effect of the noise domain on generalization, based on which we propose a Noise Adaptation Framework (NAF). Extensive experiments demonstrate that NAF effectively leverages the noise domain to tighten the generalization bound of the target domain, leading to improved performance. The codes are available at https://github.com/AIResearch-Group/SSNA.

07.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-11

Quantum thermodynamics of the Caldeira-Leggett model with non-equilibrium Gaussian reservoirs

arXiv:2405.00215v5 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We introduce a non-equilibrium version of the Caldeira-Leggett model in which a quantum particle is strongly coupled to a set of engineered reservoirs. The reservoirs are composed by collections of squeezed and displaced thermal modes, in contrast to the standard case in which the modes are assumed to be at equilibrium. The model proves to be very versatile. Strongly displaced/squeezed reservoirs can be used to generate an effective time dependence in the system Hamiltonian and can be identified as sources of pure work. In the case of squeezing, the time dependence is stochastic and breaks the fluctuation-dissipation relation, this can be reconciled with the second law of thermodynamics by correctly accounting for the energy used to generate the initial non-equilibrium conditions. To go beyond the average description and compute the full heat statistics, we treat squeezing and displacement as generalized Hamiltonians on a modified Keldysh contour. As an application of this technique, we show the quantum-classical correspondence between the heat statistics in the non-equilibrium Caldeira-Leggett model and the statistics of a classical Langevin particle under the action of squeezed and displaced colored noises. Finally, we discuss thermodynamic symmetries of the heat generating function, proving a fluctuation theorem for the energy balance and showing that the conservation of energy at the trajectory level emerges in the classical limit.

08.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Photon: Federated LLM Pre-Training

arXiv:2411.02908v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Scaling large language models (LLMs) demands extensive data and computing resources, which are traditionally constrained to data centers by the high-bandwidth requirements of distributed training. Low-bandwidth methods like federated learning (FL) could enable collaborative training of larger models across weakly-connected GPUs if they can effectively be used for pre-training. To achieve this, we introduce Photon, the first complete system for federated end-to-end LLM training, leveraging cross-silo FL for global-scale training with minimal communication overheads. Using Photon, we train the first federated family of decoder-only LLMs from scratch. We show that: (1) Photon can train model sizes up to 7B in a federated fashion while reaching an even better perplexity than centralized pre-training; (2) Photon model training time decreases with available compute, achieving a similar compute-time trade-off to centralized; and (3) Photon outperforms the wall-time of baseline distributed training methods by 35% via communicating 64x-512xless. Our proposal is robust to data heterogeneity and converges twice as fast as previous methods like DiLoCo. This surprising data efficiency stems from a unique approach combining small client batch sizes with extremely high learning rates, enabled by federated averaging's robustness to hyperparameters. Photon thus represents the first economical system for global internet-wide LLM pre-training.

09.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-12

Characterizing the functional role of quantum coherence in energy transfer

arXiv:2606.13404v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Quantum coherence is understood to play a role in excitation energy transfer in open quantum systems, yet a quantitative approach to assessing its influence on the transfer process is still missing. Using Nakajima-Zwanzig projection operators, we derive a general memory kernel identity that enables us to characterize and quantify the impact of coherence in the eigenenergy basis on a generalized rate of energy transfer. Applying our approach to the electronic dynamics of a dimer coupled to a structured phonon bath, we demonstrate how quantum coherence acts to modulate energy transfer.

10.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-17

Macrophage-targeted glucocorticoid prodrug resolves acute inflammation while preserving HPA axis function: mechanistic, preclinical, and Phase II/III clinical evidence

Glucocorticoids (GCs) remain the fastest-acting anti-inflammatory agents but are constrained by systemic exposure that suppresses the hypothalamic pituitary adrenal (HPA) axis, silences adaptive immunity, and drives chronic toxicities. Chronic inflammatory diseases are sustained by long-lived CD206+ macrophages containing immune-resistant pathogenic material not cleared physiologically. We developed 101-PGC-005 ('005), a macrophage-targeted type 1a dexamethasone prodrug engineered for low-affinity, recycling-compatible uptake via CD206, with intracellular release triggered by acidic endosomes. We evaluated '005 in mechanistic assays, pathogen-diverse preclinical models, three human pharmacokinetic (PK) studies, and an adaptive-design randomized Phase II/III trial in 309 hospitalized patients with moderate COVID-19. In two completed Phase I human studies, a first-in-human dose-escalation and repeated-dose study and a dedicated single/multiple-dose PK and safety study; '005 circulated as intact prodrug with rapid systemic clearance (Tmax ~0.5 h; terminal half-life ~1.9 h), with no measurable free dexamethasone after single dosing and only low, clinically non-significant free dexamethasone after repeated dosing, and intact prodrug recovered unchanged in urine. Morning cortisol and ACTH were preserved after 30 mg once daily for three consecutive days (1.5 times the intended therapeutic dose). A cerebrospinal fluid PK study is evaluating central-compartment penetration. In the Phase II/III trial, powered for non-inferiority, conducted across six sites in India under GCP with Ministry of Health approval and independent DSMB oversight; '005 (20 mg IV daily for 3 days) was superior to dexamethasone (6 mg IV daily for 3 -10 days) on the primary endpoint of time to > a 2-point improvement on the WHO ordinal scale (HR 2.31; 95% CI 1.83-2.93; p < 0.0001; median 3 vs. 4 days). '005 was also superior on viral clearance (HR 1.47; 95% CI 1.17-1.84; p = 0.0001), hospital discharge rate, SpO2; recovery, and fever resolution. Zero patients in the '005 arm received investigator-initiated corticosteroid supplementation despite protocol allowance. All 309 randomized patients completed the study (ITT = per-protocol). Safety profiles were equivalent (TEAEs 54.8% vs 54.5%; p = 0.958), with no Grade 3+ events, SAEs, deaths, or discontinuations in either arm. Mechanistically, '005 delivered dual benefit: acute debulking of inflammatory macrophages and selective depletion of chronically activated pathology-sustaining macrophages, while preserving CXCL10 antiviral signaling and physiologic HPA control. Critically, HPA preservation is not merely a safety feature, it is a core efficacy mechanism: by clearing the pathogenic macrophage burden that was overriding HPA regulation, '005 restores the conditions for endogenous cortisol to resume its pulsatile, demand-responsive anti-inflammatory role across all GR-expressing cells, lymphocytes, endothelial cells, neurons, and newly differentiated macrophages, that '005 itself cannot reach. These findings support regulatory-grade evidence for macrophage-targeted corticosteroid therapy and provide the foundation for further development across acute inflammatory indications (sepsis, viral pneumonia, cytokine-release syndromes) and chronic macrophage-driven diseases (atherosclerosis, metabolic steatohepatitis, neurodegeneration, tumor-associated macrophages).

11.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-11

Hybrid Iterative Neural Low-Regularity Integrator for Nonlinear Dispersive Equations

arXiv:2605.04853v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We propose HIN-LRI, a hybrid framework that augments a classical numerical solver with a neural operator trained to correct the solver's structured truncation error. A base low-regularity integrator provides a consistent first-order approximation to nonlinear dispersive PDEs, while a lightweight neural network, operating on a low-dimensional latent manifold, learns the residual defect that analytical methods cannot close. An explicit time-step scaling on the neural correction ensures that its Lipschitz contribution remains $\mathcal{O}(\tau)$, yielding a Gronwall stability factor bounded uniformly in the step size and independent of the spatial resolution. The network is trained end-to-end through a solver-in-the-loop objective that unrolls the full iteration and penalises trajectory error in a Bourgain-type norm, aligning learning with multi-step solver dynamics rather than isolated one-step targets. Under stated assumptions, the global error satisfies $C(\varepsilon_{net}+\delta)\,\tau^\gamma\ln(1/\tau)$, where $\varepsilon_{net}$ measures the network approximation quality and $\delta$ the training shortfall. Experiments on three dispersive benchmarks with rough data show that HIN-LRI improves accuracy over analytical integrators, splitting methods, and neural PDE surrogates, with stable spatial refinement, effective out-of-distribution transfer, and modest online overhead.

12.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-11

Accurate and Resource-Efficient Federated Continual Learning

arXiv:2606.11480v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Federated continual learning (FCL) must learn from distributed task streams under limited resources, such as communication, computation, memory, and label availability. Existing FCL methods often rely on repeated local optimization, replay, and full supervision. Analytic alternatives avoid iterative training and replay, but using high-dimensional random features to improve accuracy requires a second-order feature statistic, the Gram matrix, which has a quadratic communication cost in the random feature size $M$. We propose FedRAN, a resource-aware analytic FCL framework that replaces gradient-based updates with compact random feature statistics. Each client transmits a truncated-SVD summary of its Gram matrix, reducing the dominant second-order upload from quadratic to linear in $M$ for fixed rank. The server performs a two-level QR-SVD subspace merge, spatially across clients and temporally across tasks, and solves a ridge classifier in closed form. FedRAN further supports label scarcity through prototype-based pseudo-labeling. Across CIFAR-100, ImageNet-R, and VTAB datasets, FedRAN improves average accuracy by up to 4.8 percentage points over the strongest baseline, uses 30.6-121.8$\times$ less per-client communication than optimization-based FCL, and is 190.3$\times$ faster on average than gradient-based baselines; with only 20% labels, pseudo-labeling improves average accuracy by up to 6.61 points. These results show that FedRAN enables accurate and resource-efficient FCL under communication, computation, and label constraints. The source code is available at https://github.com/JebacyrilArockiaraj/Fed-RAN-SSL.

13.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-17

Curiosity-Critic: Cumulative Prediction Error Improvement as a Tractable Intrinsic Reward for World Model Training

arXiv:2604.18701v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Local prediction-error-based curiosity rewards focus on the current transition without considering the world model's cumulative prediction error across all visited transitions. We introduce Curiosity-Critic, which grounds its intrinsic reward in the improvement of this cumulative objective, and show that it admits a tractable per-step surrogate: the difference between the current prediction error and the asymptotic error baseline of the current state transition. We estimate this error baseline online with a learned critic co-trained alongside the world model; since the critic only has to learn how hard a transition is to predict, its estimate of the irreducible noise floor converges well before the world model saturates, redirecting exploration toward learnable transitions. The reward is higher for learnable transitions and collapses toward zero for stochastic ones, thereby separating epistemic (reducible) from aleatoric (irreducible) prediction error online. Prior prediction-error curiosity formulations, from Schmidhuber (1991) to learned-feature-space variants, emerge as special cases corresponding to specific approximations of this error baseline. Experiments on a stochastic grid world show that Curiosity-Critic outperforms prediction-error, visitation-count, and Random Network Distillation methods in training speed and final world model accuracy.

14.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

From Correlation to Causation in Lane Change Prediction for Automated Driving: A Causal Explanation Framework

arXiv:2606.15756v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Lane-change prediction is a central task in intelligent vehicles, where early maneuver anticipation can support safer decision-making. However, many existing approaches mainly learn statistical associations between observed driving variables and future maneuvers, while overlooking the causal dependencies among the input variables themselves. This limits interpretability, especially when physically related variables such as longitudinal gap, relative longitudinal velocity, and Time-To-Collision (TTC) are treated as independent flat inputs. This article presents a causal-inference-based framework for lane-change prediction and explanation. The proposed approach combines linguistic feature construction, expert-constrained causal discovery, deep structural causal modeling with Deep End-to-end Causal Inference (DECI), intervention-based effect analysis, refutation testing, and recursive causal-chain explanation. The objective is not only to predict the future maneuver, but also to identify candidate variables that directly contribute to the prediction, the upstream factors influencing them, and the causal chains through which these effects propagate. The framework achieves average F1-scores above 95% during the first three seconds before the lane-marking crossing event. Beyond prediction accuracy, the framework uses intervention-based effect analysis to distinguish influential from weakly influential variables under the learned causal structure. It further distinguishes candidate direct contributors from mediated effects and generates contrastive causal-chain explanations that clarify why the predicted maneuver is favored and why the alternative maneuvers are less supported. The main contribution is therefore a mechanism-aware lane-change prediction pipeline that moves beyond correlation-based classification toward more interpretable causal reasoning for maneuver prediction.

15.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

Privacy-Preserving Text Sanitization for Distributed Agents Collaboration via Disentangled Representations

When distributed agents exchange text across organizational boundaries, privacy leakage arises not only from explicit identifiers but also from distributional signatures such as formatting conventions, vocabulary choices, and syntactic patterns. We propose DiSan(Disentangled Sanitization), a privacy-preserving sanitization framework and a built-in component of Intern-Shannon for multi-agent collaboration. DiSan uses a two-stream encoder to factorize text into a source-invariant role subspace that preserves task semantics and a source-identifying style subspace that remains local. Federated proto-type alignment and adversarial regularization enable joint training without centralizing raw text. Experiments show that identifier-level masking is insufficient: masking 19.2% of tokens reduces TF-IDF stylometric attribution by only 18.6%. By contrast, DiSan reduces answer-level PII exposure by 20 times while maintaining 83% answer faithfulness on a distributed multi-agent RAG benchmark, and lowers Enron stylometric attribution by 73.2% under TF-IDF and 70.6% under a neural probe.

16.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-15

Cost-Performance Evaluation of Large Language Models for Aspect-Based Sentiment Analysis of HCAHPS Patient Comments: A Validation Study

Background: Hospital Consumer Assessment of Healthcare Providers and Systems (HCAHPS) free-text comments contain actionable feedback, but timely, scalable, and affordable sentiment analysis remains challenging for health systems that rely on third-party vendors. Objectives: To evaluate cost-performance tradeoffs between a cost-optimized and a flagship large language model (LLM) for aspect-based sentiment analysis of HCAHPS comments, using human inter-rater agreement as a reproducibility benchmark. Methods: We analyzed 512 free-text HCAHPS comments collected from two community hospitals in calendar year 2023. Six trained reviewers (medical students, recent medical graduates, and practicing internists) independently assigned positive, negative, or neutral labels to each comment-aspect pair; the majority label among three reviewers formed the consensus reference standard. Two OpenAI models - GPT-5-nano (cost-optimized) and GPT-5 (flagship) - were prompted in a zero-shot setting via the OpenAI API. We calculated pairwise Cohen's {kappa} to establish a human inter-rater baseline, then compared each model's labels to the consensus using Cohen's {kappa}, accuracy, weighted F1, and per-call cost and latency. Results: Mean human inter-rater agreement was {kappa} = 0.79 (substantial). Both LLMs exceeded this baseline (cost-optimized {kappa} = 0.85; flagship {kappa} = 0.85) with nearly identical accuracy (0.92) and weighted F1 (0.93 vs. 0.93). Performance was strong on positive (F1 ~ 0.97) and negative (F1 ~ 0.90) classes but poor on the underrepresented neutral class (F1

17.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-11

When Does Deep RL Beat Calibrated Baselines? A Benchmark Study on Adaptive Resource Control

arXiv:2605.26418v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: A properly calibrated rule-based autoscaler can beat every one of six mainstream deep reinforcement learning (DRL) algorithms on cost across every workload we test - so when, if ever, does DRL actually help? We study this in RLScale-Bench, a reproducible benchmark and evaluation protocol for DRL on adaptive resource control, where an agent allocates compute to a dynamic workload under cost and service-level constraints. We evaluate PPO, DQN, A2C, SAC, TD3, and DDPG under matched architectures, training budgets, and reward functions against a calibrated rule-based baseline across six workload patterns and five seeds (240 runs), instantiate the benchmark on Kubernetes Horizontal Pod Autoscaling, and probe distribution-shift generalization. Three findings challenge common assumptions: (i) the calibrated controller achieves the lowest cost on all six workloads, though it trails the best RL agents on bursty and flash traffic; (ii) discrete-action algorithms outperform continuous-action ones by one to two orders of magnitude in constraint violations due to action-space mismatch; and (iii) no single algorithm dominates across workloads, with rankings shifting by up to four positions. The bottleneck in RL-based resource control is not algorithm selection but baseline calibration, reward engineering, and realistic evaluation protocols.

18.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-18

HAARES Half-Split Residual Basis Routing for Deep Transformers

Authors:

arXiv:2606.06564v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Block-level residual routing makes learned residual aggregation practical by routing over block summaries, but each summary compresses an ordered sequence of attention and MLP updates into one cumulative vector. We propose \method{}, a lightweight residual basis router that keeps the cumulative block source and adds one half-split detail basis, computed as the difference between first-half and second-half residual updates. The detail basis is RMS-matched and updated online, exposing coarse intra-block trajectory information without dense sublayer-level routing. Across OpenWebText, cross-domain character-level benchmarks, and BPE-tokenized OpenWebText, the empirical pattern is depth-dependent: gains are small or mixed at shallow depth and most reliable in 48-layer models. In the 201M 48-layer setting, \method{} improves over Block AttnRes across all three seeds, while a 453M two-seed probe shows the same direction. Ablations rule out source duplication, random signed details, fixed detail-source biases, or block-count changes alone. Cost analysis shows that the method is FLOP-light but not wall-clock-free: it adds memory and routing overhead, yet its relative arithmetic cost is amortized as width grows and earlier convergence can reduce time-to-target.

19.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-10

A risk-of-contagion index using a Bayesian based model for the COVID-19 epidemic in Mexico

During the COVID-19 pandemic, limited testing capacity and reporting delays complicated epidemic surveillance and decision-making in Mexico. We calibrated textit{covidestim}, a Bayesian nowcasting model, to estimate the total SARS-CoV-2 infections from reported cases and deaths using Mexican surveillance data. Disease-progression distribution priors were calibrated using Mexico City records and validated through comparisons with national seroprevalence surveys, hospitalization data, and annual reported severe-case rates across all states. Using the reconstructed estimates of active infections, we implemented an event-based risk framework that quantifies the probability of encountering at least one infectious individual in gatherings of different sizes. This probability was subsequently translated into a four-level epidemiological traffic-light indicator and computed at both state and municipality levels. The resulting estimates revealed substantial spatial heterogeneity that is obscured by state-level aggregation, particularly in states with marked differences between urban and rural municipalities. To evaluate consistency with public-health indicators, we compared the proposed risk classification with the official Mexican epidemiological traffic-light system, considering interpretable gathering sizes relevant to public-health decision making. Weekly reports derived from this framework were delivered to policymakers in the State of Queretaro in Mexico, as an anticipation tool for school reopening and public-space management. This demonstrates that this Bayesian reconstruction of infections combined with event-based risk metrics can provide an interpretable and generalizable municipality-level complement to routine surveillance systems, particularly in regions with limited testing capacity and heterogeneous local transmission dynamics.

20.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-15

On the Poisson Follower Model

arXiv:2309.04864v5 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We introduce a stochastic geometry dynamics inspired by opinion dynamics that captures the essence of modern asymmetric social networks with leaders and followers. Points in the Euclidean space represent opinions, and the leader of an agent is the one with the closest opinion. In this dynamics, each follower updates its opinion by halving the distance to its leader. We demonstrate that this simple dynamics and its iterations exhibit several interesting purely geometric phenomena related to the evolution of leadership and opinion clusters, which resemble those observed in social networks. We also show that when the initial opinions are randomly distributed as a stationary Poisson point process, the spatial frequency of each of these phenomena can be expressed through an integral geometry formula involving semi-algebraic domains. Finally, we analyze numerically the limiting behavior of this follower dynamics. In the Poisson case, the agents fall into two categories: ultimate followers, who continue updating their opinions indefinitely, and ultimate leaders, who adopt a fixed opinion after a finite time. Spatial discrete event simulations support all our findings.

21.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-19

VFACamou: View-Fused Adversarial Camouflage for Environment-Adaptive Physical Evasion

Adversarial camouflage in the physical world remains highly challenging, particularly under UAV reconnaissance where targets undergo continuous geometric changes and extreme illumination variations. Existing methods either optimize 2D digital perturbations that fail to generalize to dynamic viewpoints or produce visually unnatural textures that cannot be deployed in real scenarios. Therefore, we propose an end-to-end framework for adversarial camouflage generation that automatically produces wearable adversarial patterns and maintains stable attack performance in real physical environments with changing viewpoints, poses, and lighting conditions. Our method integrates UV-volume rendering with a diffusion-based texture generator, enabling consistent appearance under varying scales, poses, and lighting conditions. To ensure environmental realism, we propose an illumination color consistency estimator that extracts dominant background attributes and guides a natural texture loss to align the generated UV texture with the surrounding environment. A multi-scale dynamic training strategy further enhances robustness against viewpoint shifts and body deformation. Extensive experiments across multiple mainstream detectors demonstrate that our method achieves strong and stable physical attack performance while maintaining high perceptual naturalness, reducing human detection rates without introducing unnatural artifacts.

22.
bioRxiv (Bioinfo) 2026-06-12

From Proteome Mining to Structural Validation: Phosphopyruvate Hydratase as a Structurally Tractable Drug Target in Kinetoplastid Parasites

Chagas disease, caused by Trypanosoma cruzi, demands novel therapeutic strategies that overcome the toxicity and limited efficacy of current treatments. To address this need, herein we report an integrative, target-centric strategy that combines parasite proteome mining, structural modeling, and experimental validation. Functional enrichment and druggability analyses identified phosphopyruvate hydratase (PPH) as a promising candidate due to its essential metabolic role and limited similarity to human homologs. Notably, proteome mining revealed the presence and conservation of PPH across kinetoplastid parasites, including Leishmania donovani, supporting its evaluation beyond T. cruzi. For the selected PPH sequences, AlphaFold-derived three-dimensional models underwent extensive molecular dynamics refinement, yielding stable conformational ensembles suitable for structure-based studies. Using this validated model, virtual screening of the Latin American Natural Products Database - LANaPDB - identified aptosimon as a top-ranked compound candidate. Molecular dynamics simulations further showed ligand-dependent binding behavior, suggesting alternative binding modes distinct from the canonical substrate configuration. In vitro assays demonstrated consistent antiparasitic activity against intracellular T. cruzi amastigotes (IC50 = 3.52 ug/mL) and Leishmania donovani promastigotes (IC50 = 13.06 ug/mL), supporting the biological relevance of the aptosimon-related lignan chemotype, hinokinin, across two kinetoplastid parasite models. Together, these results support PPH as a structurally tractable and biologically relevant candidate target, while identifying an aptosimon-related lignan chemotype, represented experimentally by hinokinin, as a cross-species antiparasitic scaffold that warrants further biochemical target-validation studies.

23.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Data-driven Control with Real-time Uncertainty Compensation for Multi-Fuel Engines

arXiv:2606.16171v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Multi-fuel compression ignition (CI) engines offer superior power density and fuel flexibility. However, achieving consistent and optimal combustion phasing across a wide range of operating conditions remains a major challenge, particularly in the presence of modeling uncertainties. This paper presents a novel, data-driven real-time uncertainty compensation framework for combustion control in multi-fuel CI engines. The proposed approach introduces a pseudo-engine speed that enables dynamic adaptation of control inputs in response to uncertainty affecting the engine. To model the underlying combustion process, a Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) model is first trained on available input-output data, capturing the nonlinear and fuel-dependent behavior across varying operating conditions. Control inputs are then synthesized through model inversion of the learned GPR surrogate and augmented with an uncertainty compensator designed to mitigate deviations caused by dynamic variations in operating conditions and model inaccuracies. This integrated control strategy allows for real-time input corrections within a finite number of combustion cycles. Theoretical analysis establishes finite-time convergence guarantees for the proposed controller. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed method steers the combustion phasing to the desired value in real-time, providing a scalable and adaptive control solution for multi-fuel CI engine operation.

24.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-16

Classical Explanations in (and of) General Probabilistic Theories

arXiv:2603.05627v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We introduce a notion of the ``explanation" of one (generalized) probabilistic model by another as particular kind of span in the category $\Prob$ of probabilistic models and morphisms. We show that explanations compose under a standard pullback construction (notwithstanding that $\Prob$ does not support arbitrary pullbacks). We then show that every locally-finite probabilistic model has a canonical, sharp classical explanation. The construction is functorial, so every locally-finite probabilistic theory has a canonical, sharp classical (though of course, usually non-local) representation.

25.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-11

From Persistence to Survival: Hypothesis Testing, Effect Sizes and Vectorisation for Topological Features

arXiv:2606.11911v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Persistence diagrams are common representations in topological data analysis, but they do not naturally live in a vector space, and the statistical tools developed for comparing them have largely evolved separately from those used for downstream prediction. We introduce STRAND (Survival Topological Representation ANalysis of Diagrams), which treats (collections of) PDs as survival data: each topological feature with persistence value $p = d - b$ is a fully observed time-to-event, and the persistence survival function $S(t) = \mathbb{P}(p > t)$ is the central object for comparing diagrams. From this single representation we derive (i) a non-parametric two-sample test with calibrated Type I error and high power from a small number of diagrams; (ii) interpretable effect sizes; and (iii) a 1-Wasserstein-stable feature vector for downstream machine learning. We validate calibration and power on synthetic manifolds with controlled topology, demonstrate competitive vectorisation across 14 graph and 3D point cloud benchmarks, and apply the method to study functional brain connectivity in fMRI/neuroscience data. To our knowledge, STRAND is the first method to provide hypothesis testing and vectorisation for persistence diagrams from a single coherent and interpretable representation.