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01.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-24

IV-CoT: Implicit Visual Chain-of-Thought for Structure-Aware Text-to-Image Generation

Authors:
Zixuan Li↗Haokun Lin↗Yicheng Xiao↗Zhiwei Li↗Xinyang Song↗Zelong Zheng↗Yong He↗Heng Yao↗Ke Ding↗Chao Yu↗Chuan Yuan↗Qi Li↗…

arXiv:2606.24849v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Unified multi-modal large language models (MLLMs) have achieved strong text-to-image generation quality, but still struggle with structure-aware prompt following, where object counts, spatial relations, attribute bindings, and coarse layouts must be preserved. We attribute this limitation in part to the entanglement of structural planning and appearance rendering within a single conditioning stream. To address this issue, we propose Implicit Visual Chain-of-Thought (IV-CoT), a latent visual reasoning framework for query-conditioned image generation. IV-CoT decomposes the visual conditioning queries into a structural-to-semantic cascade, where structural queries first form a latent visual plan and semantic queries then render appearance conditioned on this plan. To guide the structural queries, we introduce training-only sketch supervision, which encourages them to capture structure from sketches without requiring sketch extraction or intermediate decoding at inference time. IV-CoT performs implicit CoT reasoning in a single forward pass and achieves superior results on GenEval and T2I-CompBench. Visualizations and analyses demonstrate that the learned structural and semantic queries play complementary roles in structure-aware generation.

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02.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-19

3D Vessel Reconstruction from Sparse-View Dynamic DSA Images via Vessel Probability Guided Attenuation Learning

Authors:
Zhentao Liu↗Huangxuan Zhao↗Wenhui Qin↗Zhenghong Zhou↗Xinggang Wang↗Wenping Wang↗Xiaochun Lai↗Chuansheng Zheng↗Dinggang Shen↗Zhiming Cui↗

Digital Subtraction Angiography (DSA) is one of the gold standards for vascular disease diagnosis. With the help of a contrast agent, time-resolved 2D DSA images deliver comprehensive blood flow information and can be utilized to reconstruct 3D vessel structures for medical assessment. Current commercial DSA systems typically require hundreds of scanning views to perform reconstruction, resulting in substantial radiation exposure. In this study, we propose a neural rendering-based optimization framework tailored for high-quality sparse-view DSA reconstruction to reduce radiation dosage. Our approach, termed vessel probability guided attenuation learning, represents DSA imaging as a complementary weighted combination of static and dynamic attenuation fields, with the weights derived from the time-independent vessel probability field. Functioning as a foreground mask, vessel probability provides proper gradients for both static and dynamic fields adaptive to different scene types. This mechanism enables self-supervised decomposition between static backgrounds and dynamic contrast agent flow, and significantly improves reconstruction quality. Our model is trained by minimizing the discrepancy between synthesized projections and real captured DSA images. We further employ two training strategies to improve reconstruction quality: (1) coarse-to-fine progressive training for better geometry and (2) temporal perturbed rendering loss for temporal consistency. Experimental results have demonstrated high-quality 3D vessel reconstruction and 2D DSA image synthesis.

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03.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-15

MAD: Manifold Attracted Diffusion

Authors:
Dennis Elbr\"achter↗Giovanni S. Alberti↗Matteo Santacesaria↗

arXiv:2509.24710v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Score-based diffusion models are a highly effective method for generating samples from a distribution of images. We consider scenarios where the training data comes from a noisy version of the target distribution, and present an efficiently implementable modification of the inference procedure to generate noiseless samples. Our approach is motivated by the manifold hypothesis, according to which meaningful data is concentrated around some low-dimensional manifold of a high-dimensional ambient space. The central idea is that noise manifests as low magnitude variation in off-manifold directions in contrast to the relevant variation of the desired distribution which is mostly confined to on-manifold directions. We introduce the notion of an extended score and show that, in a simplified setting, it can be used to reduce small variations to zero, while leaving large variations mostly unchanged. We describe how its approximation can be computed efficiently from an approximation to the standard score and demonstrate its efficacy on toy problems, synthetic data, and real data.

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05.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-17

On Injectivity of Phase Retrieval

Authors:
Zhangsong Li↗

arXiv:2606.17922v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: In this short note, we prove that if $A \in \mathbb C^{N \times M}$ with $N=4M-5$ has i.i.d.\ standard complex Gaussian entries, then the probability that the phase retrieval map generated by $A$ is not injective is positive. This proves Part (1) of a conjecture of Cynthia Vinzant, which was later restated by Afonso S. Bandeira in [BDL+26]. The main result of this paper was obtained using generative AI, in particular the Rethlas system.

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06.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-15

CADET: Physics-Grounded Causal Auditing and Training-Free Deconfounding of End-to-End Driving Planners

Authors:
Zikun Guo↗

arXiv:2606.14438v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: End-to-end (E2E) autonomous-driving planners trained by imitation are prone to statistical shortcuts: they associate scene elements that merely co-occur with expert actions (a roadside object, a building facade) with driving decisions, rather than the variables that causally determine them. Such causal confusion silently compromises reliability in long-tail scenarios, and it is difficult to detect, because prevailing open-loop metrics (L2 displacement and collision rate) are dominated by ego status and do not indicate whether a planner depends on spurious cues. Existing remedies based on causal-intervention training require retraining large models and cannot audit a planner that is already deployed. We present CADET, a training-free framework that audits, benchmarks, and repairs spurious reliance in pretrained E2E planners without any parameter update.

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07.
PLOS Computational Biology 2026-06-01

Supervised deep learning with gene functional annotation for cell classification

Authors:
Zhexiao Lin↗

by Zhexiao Lin, Yuanyuan Gao, Wei Sun Gene-by-gene differential expression analysis is a widely used supervised approach for interpreting single-cell RNA-sequencing (scRNA-seq) data. However, modern scRNA-seq datasets often contain large numbers of cells, leading to the identification of many differentially expressed genes with extremely small p-values but negligible effect sizes, thus making biological interpretation difficult. To overcome this challenge, we developed Supervised Deep learning with gene functional ANnotation (SDAN), a method that integrates gene functional annotation information (e.g., protein-protein interaction) with gene-expression profiles through a graph neural network. SDAN identifies functionally coherent gene sets that optimally classify cells, and the resulting cell-level classification scores can be aggregated to make individual-level predictions. We evaluated SDAN alongside three representative existing methods in three real-data applications aimed at identifying gene sets associated with severe COVID-19, dementia, and cancer immunotherapy response. Across all applications, SDAN consistently outperformed the alternative approaches by achieving two objectives simultaneously: accurate outcome classification and clear assignment of genes to functionally related gene sets.

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08.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-11

Automated Creativity Evaluation of Language Models Across Open-Ended Tasks

Authors:
Min Sen Tan↗Zachary Kit Chun Choy↗Syed Ali Redha Alsagoff↗Nadya Yuki Wangsajaya↗Mohor Banerjee↗Swaagat Bikash Saikia↗Alvin Chan↗

Large language models (LLMs) have achieved remarkable progress in language understanding, reasoning, and generation, sparking growing interest in their creative potential. Realizing this potential requires systematic and scalable methods for evaluating creativity across diverse tasks. However, most existing creativity metrics are tightly coupled to specific tasks, embedding domain assumptions into the evaluation process, and limiting scalability and generality. To address this gap, we introduce an automated, domain-agnostic framework for quantifying LLM creativity across open-ended tasks. Our approach separates the measurement apparatus from the creative task itself, enabling scalable, task-agnostic assessment. Divergent creativity is measured using semantic entropy, a reference-free and robust metric for novelty and diversity, validated against human annotations, LLM-based novelty judgments and baseline diversity measures. Convergent creativity is assessed via a novel retrieval-based multi-agent judge framework that delivers context-sensitive evaluation of task fulfilment with over 60% improved efficiency. We validate our framework in three qualitatively distinct domains: problem-solving (MacGyver), research ideation (HypoGen), and creative writing (BookMIA), using a broad suite of LLMs. Empirical results show that our framework reliably captures key facets of creativity, including novelty, diversity, and task fulfilment, and reveal how model properties, such as size, temperature, recency, and reasoning, impact creative performance. Our work establishes a reproducible and generalizable standard for automated LLM creativity evaluation, paving the way for scalable benchmarking and accelerating progress in creative AI.

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09.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

Continuous Splatting meets Retinex: Continuous Gaussian Splatting and Implicit Reflectance Modeling for Low-Light Image Enhancement

Authors:
Yuhan Chen↗Yicui Shi↗Guofa Li↗Wenxuan Yu↗Ying Fang↗Guangrui Bai↗Wenbo Chu↗Keqiang Li↗

Low-light image enhancement aims to recover clear images from low-illumination observations and is crucial for high-level downstream vision tasks. However, existing methods frequently encounter color distortion and structural artifacts when balancing global smooth illumination adjustment and local high-frequency detail recovery. To address these issues, we propose CGS-Retinex as the first low-light image enhancement framework based on explicit-implicit joint modeling. Our framework deeply integrates continuous Gaussian splatting with Retinex theory. Specifically, we represent the image grid as a continuous parameter field and propose a continuous Gaussian renderer to estimate the spatially continuous global illumination distribution. This approach fundamentally eliminates grid artifacts caused by discrete Gaussian sampling. Furthermore, we introduce an implicit neural representation to model reflectance independently. We leverage shallow high-frequency features to guide the network in accurately reconstructing degraded texture details. Within the Retinex framework, we incorporate physics-inspired brightness consistency constraints and illumination smoothness regularization to enable explicit illumination and implicit reflectance to maintain proper exposure and achieve high-fidelity recovery of high-frequency structures and colors. Extensive experiments demonstrate that CGS-Retinex significantly suppresses dark-region noise and overexposure while achieving exceptional high-frequency structural fidelity and color restoration by precisely decoupling illumination and texture. This work establishes a novel continuous physical representation paradigm for low-light image enhancement.

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10.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

FlowRL: A Taxonomy and Modular Framework for Reinforcement Learning with Diffusion Policies

Authors:
Chenxiao Gao↗Edward Chen↗Tianyi Chen↗Bo Dai↗

arXiv:2603.27450v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Thanks to their remarkable flexibility, diffusion models and flow models have emerged as promising candidates for policy representation. However, efficient reinforcement learning (RL) upon these policies remains a challenge due to the lack of explicit log-probabilities for vanilla policy gradient estimators. While numerous attempts have been proposed to address this, the field lacks a unified perspective to reconcile these seemingly disparate methods, thus hampering ongoing development. In this paper, we bridge this gap by introducing a comprehensive taxonomy for RL algorithms with diffusion/flow policies. To support reproducibility and agile prototyping, we introduce a modular, JAX-based open-source codebase that leverages JIT-compilation for high-throughput training. Finally, we provide systematic and standardized benchmarks across Gym-Locomotion, DeepMind Control Suite, and IsaacLab, offering a rigorous side-by-side comparison of diffusion-based methods and guidance for practitioners to choose proper algorithms based on the application. Our work establishes a clear foundation for understanding and algorithm design, a high-efficiency toolkit for future research in the field, and an algorithmic guideline for practitioners in generative models and robotics. Our code is available at https://github.com/typoverflow/flow-rl.

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11.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

Spatial-Aware Reduction Framework: Towards Efficient and Faithful Visual State Space Models

Authors:
Jindi Lv↗Aoyu Li↗Yuhao Zhou↗Zheng Zhu↗Xiaofeng Wang↗Qing Ye↗Yueqi Duan↗Wentao Feng↗Jiancheng Lv↗

arXiv:2606.19932v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Mamba demonstrates strong efficiency in modeling long visual sequences. However, when token reduction is applied to structurally enhanced Mamba variants, these models exhibit a severe performance collapse. We attribute this degradation to the spatially agnostic nature of existing reduction methods, which violate the two-dimensional structural premise required by the selective scanning mechanism. In this work, we propose STORM, a spatial-aware token reduction framework designed to maintain structural integrity throughout the compression process. STORM reformulates reduction into a structured operation on spatial units, enforcing localized constraints to maintain both grid topology and neighborhood coherence. As a plug-and-play module, STORM equips existing reduction pipelines with explicit spatial awareness without any training. Empirical results demonstrate that STORM achieves state-of-the-art pruning accuracy across diverse vision Mamba backbones under training-free settings. Notably, STORM delivers a substantial accuracy recovery on VMamba, outperforming prior methods by up to 63.3\% in top-1 accuracy. Meanwhile, STORM incurs only a 1.0\% accuracy drop on PlainMamba, achieving performance comparable to ViT.

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12.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-19

Connect the Dots: Training LLMs for Long-Lifecycle Agents with Cross-Domain Generalization Via Reinforcement Learning

Authors:
Yanxi Chen↗Weijie Shi↗Yuexiang Xie↗Boyi Hu↗Yaliang Li↗Bolin Ding↗Jingren Zhou↗

This work presents a general framework for training large language models (LLMs) to "Connect the Dots" (CoD), a meta-capability required by long-lifecycle agents: as an LLM-based AI agent gets deployed in an environment, it solves a long sequence of tasks while continuously exploring the environment, learning from its own experiences, and iteratively self-updating its context about the environment, thereby achieving progressively better performance on future tasks conditioned on the updated context. Major components of the CoD framework include: (1) algorithm design and infrastructure for end-to-end reinforcement learning (RL) with long rollout sequences interleaving solve-task and update-context episodes; (2) tasks and environments for incentivizing and eliciting the targeted meta-capability in LLMs during training, as well as for faithfully measuring progress during evaluation. We present proof-of-concept implementations of the CoD framework, including a GRPO-style RL algorithm with fine-grained credit assignment, as well as tasks and environments tailored to the targeted meta-capability (rather than domain-specific LLM capabilities or standard task-by-task RL). Empirical results validate the efficacy of end-to-end RL training in the CoD setting, and demonstrate the potential for out-of-distribution generalization – within the training domains, across different domains, and from CoD to Ralph-loop settings – of the elicited meta-capability. Our investigation of CoD connects several lines of prior works, and opens up new opportunities for advancing LLMs and AI agents. To facilitate further research and applications, we release our implementations at \url{https://github.com/agentscope-ai/Trinity-RFT/tree/research/cod/examples/research_cod}.

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13.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-24

Universal Extraction of Quantum Critical Exponents and Phase Transitions via Tailored Hilbert Space

Authors:
Ye Xiong↗

arXiv:2606.24312v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Finite-size scaling and the renormalization group form the central toolkit for analyzing quantum phase transitions (QPTs). In this Letter, we introduce a novel Hilbert-space tailoring scheme to probe quantum critical phenomena. Applied to the second-order QPT of the one-dimensional (1D) XY model, our method yields precise critical points and exponents on lattices containing merely 50 unit cells. We further establish the universal applicability of this framework via investigations of the Berezinskii-Kosterlitz-Thouless transition in the 1D XXZ chain: critical parameters are recovered with as few as 12 lattice sites. This technique may open an alternative, efficient route to universally characterize QPT across many-body lattice systems.

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14.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-24

Bengal-HP_RU: A Dataset of Bengal People For Head Pose Estimation

Authors:
Md. Ahanaf Arif Khan↗Md. Tawhidur Rahman↗Sangeeta Biswas↗Md. Iqbal Aziz Khan↗Subrata Pramanik↗Sanjoy Kumar Chakravarty↗Bimal Kumar Pramanik↗

Existing head pose datasets predominantly feature subjects of Western or East Asian origin, leaving South Asian populations, particularly Bengali individuals, largely underrepresented. We introduce Bengal-HP_RU, the first publicly available head pose dataset centred on Bengali subjects, comprising 12,894 labelled head images annotated with continuous yaw, pitch, and roll values. Images were collected from Wikimedia Commons under free licences and processed through an automated pipeline followed by manual label correction. The dataset is partitioned by Wikimedia uploader identity to prevent data contamination, yielding 10,494 training and 2,400 test images across 296 unique uploaders. Bengal-HP_RU exhibits substantial diversity in subject age, gender, occlusion, illumination, and background, reflecting realistic in-the-wild conditions. The dataset is publicly available at https://doi.org/10.17632/xbw9kr37jb.2.

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15.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-15

Dynamic Free-Rider Detection in Federated Learning via Simulated Attack Patterns

Authors:
Motoki Nakamura↗

arXiv:2604.04611v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Federated learning (FL) enables multiple clients to collaboratively train a global model by aggregating local updates without sharing private data. However, FL often faces the challenge of free-riders, clients who submit fake model parameters without performing actual training to obtain the global model without contributing. Chen et al. proposed a free-rider detection method based on the weight evolving frequency (WEF) of model parameters. This detection approach is a leading candidate for practical free-rider detection methods, as it requires neither a proxy dataset nor pre-training. Nevertheless, it struggles to detect ``dynamic'' free-riders who behave honestly in early rounds and later switch to free-riding, particularly under global-model-mimicking attacks such as the delta weight attack and our newly proposed adaptive WEF-camouflage attack. In this paper, we propose a novel detection method S2-WEF that simulates the WEF patterns of potential global-model-based attacks on the server side using previously broadcasted global models, and identifies clients whose submitted WEF patterns resemble the simulated ones. To handle a variety of free-rider attack strategies, S2-WEF further combines this simulation-based similarity score with a deviation score computed from mutual comparisons among submitted WEFs, and separates benign and free-rider clients by two-dimensional clustering and per-score classification. This method enables dynamic detection of clients that transition into free-riders during training without proxy datasets or pre-training. We conduct extensive experiments across three datasets and five attack types, demonstrating that S2-WEF achieves higher robustness than existing approaches.

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16.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

Protein Design with Agent Rosetta: A Case Study for Specialized Scientific Agents

Authors:
Jacopo Teneggi↗S. M. Bargeen A. Turzo↗Tanya Marwah↗Alberto Bietti↗P. Douglas Renfrew↗Vikram Khipple Mulligan↗Siavash Golkar↗

arXiv:2603.15952v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) are capable of emulating reasoning and using tools, creating opportunities for autonomous agents that execute complex scientific tasks. Protein design provides a natural testbed: although machine learning (ML) methods achieve strong results, these are largely restricted to canonical amino acids and narrow objectives, leaving unfilled need for a generalist tool for broad design pipelines. We introduce Agent Rosetta, an LLM agent paired with a structured environment for operating Rosetta, the leading physics-based heteropolymer design software, capable of modeling non-canonical building blocks and geometries. Agent Rosetta iteratively refines designs to achieve user-defined objectives, combining LLM reasoning with Rosetta's generality. We evaluate Agent Rosetta on design with canonical amino acids, matching specialized models and expert baselines, and with non-canonical residues – where ML approaches fail – achieving comparable performance. Critically, prompt engineering alone often fails to generate Rosetta actions, demonstrating that environment design is essential for integrating LLM agents with specialized software. Our results show that properly designed environments enable LLM agents to make scientific software accessible while matching specialized tools and human experts.

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17.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-18

Architectural Bias in Face Presentation Attack Detection: A Comparative Study of Vision Transformers and Convolutional Neural Networks

Authors:
Ngela Landon Ntung↗Floride Tuyisenge↗Jema David Ndibwile↗

Face Presentation Attack Detection (PAD) systems constitute a critical security layer in biometric authentication; however, existing approaches exhibit systematic performance disparities across demographic groups, disproportionately affecting individuals with darker skin tones. This paper presents a comparative empirical investigation of whether Vision Transformer architectures reduce demographic bias in face PAD systems relative to convolutional baselines. Experiments are conducted on the CASIA-SURF Cross-Ethnicity Face Anti-Spoofing (CeFA) dataset. Three architectures are evaluated: a Multimodal ViT-Tiny trained from scratch, a ResNet18 CNN baseline, and a pretrained DeiT-S fine-tuned on CeFA across African, East Asian, and zero-shot Central Asian demographic groups. DeiT-S achieves the highest overall accuracy of 97.27% and the lowest EER of 0.86%, outperforming ResNet18 at 90.15% accuracy. In terms of fairness, DeiT-S reduces the inter-ethnic ACER gap between African and East Asian subjects to 0.13%, compared to 0.75% reported in an LBP-based work [6], representing an 83% reduction. Most notably, while ResNet18 records a BPCER of 10.44% on zero-shot Central Asian subjects, DeiT-S maintains 2.89% on the same unseen group, demonstrating a 3.6x generalization advantage. These results suggest that pretrained Vision Transformers achieve superior PAD accuracy, produce smaller demographic performance gaps, and generalize more equitably across unseen demographic groups, indicating that cross-demographic fairness in PAD may partly be influenced by architectural design.

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18.
Nature (Science) 2026-06-16

Mathematicians are developing rules for AI use — other fields should follow

Authors: Unknown Author

The mathematics community is right to call for transparency, integrity and fairness to be protected when AI tools are used. Researchers in other disciplines could learn from this approach. The mathematics community is right to call for transparency, integrity and fairness to be protected when AI tools are used. Researchers in other disciplines could learn from this approach.

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19.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-24

Entity Resolution via Batched Oracle Queries

Authors:
Lorenzo Balzotti↗Donatella Firmani↗Luca Gagliardelli↗Giovanni Simonini↗

arXiv:2606.24407v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We consider an oracle that processes a limited batch of records at a time and clusters those that refer to the same real-world entity. We study how to interrogate such an oracle to resolve entities in a dataset whose size is far larger than a single batch, and where no batch is guaranteed to contain all records of any given entity. We aim at a pay-as-you-go approach, to have full control over the costs (the number of oracle consults), while achieving the highest possible recall at every step. We formally cast this problem as batched entity resolution, prove that selecting optimal batches is NP-hard, and provide an optimal solution under a natural condition on entity sizes. Finally, we evaluate our approach on six datasets and show its superiority over state-of-the-art baselines.

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20.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-15

PERRY: Policy Evaluation with Confidence Intervals using Auxiliary Data

Authors:
Aishwarya Mandyam↗Jason Meng↗Ge Gao↗Jiankai Sun↗Mac Schwager↗Barbara E. Engelhardt↗Emma Brunskill↗

arXiv:2507.20068v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Off-policy evaluation (OPE) methods estimate the value of a new reinforcement learning (RL) policy prior to deployment. Recent advances have shown that leveraging auxiliary datasets, such as those synthesized by generative models, can improve the accuracy of OPE methods. Unfortunately, such auxiliary datasets may also be biased, and existing methods for using data augmentation within OPE lack principled uncertainty quantification. In high stakes domains like healthcare, reliable uncertainty estimates are important for ensuring safe and informed deployment of RL policies. In this work, we propose two methods to construct valid confidence intervals for OPE with data augmentation. The first provides a confidence interval over $V^{\pi}(s)$, the policy value conditioned on an initial state $s$. To do so we introduce a new conformal prediction method suitable for Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) with continuous state spaces, extending prior work to higher-dimensional settings. Second, we consider the more common task of estimating the average policy performance over all initial states, $V^{\pi}$; we introduce a method that draws on ideas from doubly robust estimation and prediction powered inference. Across simulators spanning inventory management, robotics, healthcare, and a real healthcare dataset from MIMIC-IV, we find that our methods can effectively leverage auxiliary data and consistently produce confidence intervals that cover the ground truth policy values, unlike previously proposed methods. Our work enables a future in which OPE can provide rigorous uncertainty estimates for high-stakes domains.

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21.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-16

The distribution of the de Moivre experiment

Authors:
Hac\`ene Belbachir↗Hamza Zeggada↗

arXiv:2606.15178v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In this paper, we focus on de Moivre random experience which allows us to introduce the $ s- $Bernoulli distribution and the bi$ ^s $nomial distribution. We present some probabilistic properties such as the expectation, the variance, the skewness and kurtosis coefficients, the moments and the generating functions. Then we establish that for $ s\in\mathbb{N} $, the bi$ ^s $nomial distribution converges to a limiting Poisson and normal distributions when $ n\rightarrow\infty. $

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22.
bioRxiv (Bioinfo) 2026-06-16

Super Learner Ensemble Modeling of CPTAC Proteomic Data for Survival Prediction in Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma

Authors:
Park↗Lee↗Oh↗E. J↗Tham↗Ahn↗

Survival analysis in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) is traditionally performed using Cox proportional hazards models, alongside some exploration into black-box machine learning methods. The Super Learner (SL) algorithm addresses this model selection dilemma by combining diverse candidate algorithms into a weighted ensemble to perform comparably to the best candidate method. This study evaluates the performance of SL in HNSCC. Proteomic features as well as clinical covariates from 96 CPTAC HNSCC samples were modeled with three candidate algorithms (Cox LASSO, Cox Ridge, and Random Survival Forest) as well as the ensemble SL method. Models were optimized via Uno's time-dependent Concordance Index (C-index) and tested at 1- and 3-year time horizons using 2000 bootstrap resamples. The Cox Ridge regression model achieved the highest predictive accuracy among the four total methods. However, the SL demonstrated stable performance over both time horizons (1-year C-index: 0.985; 3-year C-index: 0.960). Variable importance analysis of the Cox Ridge model successfully identified malignant proteins (ATR, MAML1, MIEN1) alongside novel potential prognostic indicators (ZNF800, KERA). This analysis emphasizes the statistical necessity for larger cohorts for ensemble learning, while providing a benchmark of proteomic indicators in HNSCC.

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23.
PLOS Medicine 2026-06-04

Comparative impacts and cost-effectiveness of tuberculosis systematic screening strategies in prisons in Brazil, Colombia, and Peru: A mathematical modeling study

Authors:
Yiran E. Liu↗

by Yiran E. Liu, José Victor Bortolotto Bampi, Ronan F. Arthur, Argita D. Salindri, Caroline Busatto, Pedro Avedillo Jiménez, Daniele Maria Pelissari, Fernanda Dockhorn Costa Johansen, Robert Arana-Narvaez, Alvaro Fernando Moreno Roca, Wilfredo Santos Solís Tupes, Esther Mori Jiu, Christian Alfredo Moreno Roca, Erika Albertina Abregú Contreras, Valentina Antonieta Alarcón Guizado, Julián Trujillo Trujillo, Belkys Marcelino, Mónica Alonso Gonzalez, Mayra Cecilia Córdova Ayllon, Ted Cohen, Moises A. Huaman, Jeremy D. Goldhaber-Fiebert, Julio Croda, Jason R. Andrews Background Incarceration is a leading driver of tuberculosis in Latin America. Systematic screening in prisons may reduce tuberculosis burden, but optimal strategies and cost-effectiveness remain uncertain. We examined the population-wide health impacts and cost-effectiveness of systematic screening in prisons in Brazil, Colombia, and Peru, comparing different timepoints, frequencies, and screening algorithms. Methods and findings Using dynamic transmission models calibrated to Brazil, Colombia, and Peru, we simulated annual or biannual (twice-yearly) prison-wide screening, alone or combined with entry and exit screening from 2026 to 2035. We evaluated four algorithms: (1) symptom screening, (2) chest X-ray with computer-aided detection (CXR-CAD), (3) symptoms and CXR-CAD (follow-up testing if either is positive), and (4) GeneXpert Ultra (Xpert) with pooled sputum. Individuals screening positive then received individual Xpert. We projected impacts on within-prison and population-level tuberculosis incidence in 2035, along with discounted costs (2023 US dollars) and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Model projections showed that combined entry, exit, and biannual screening with CXR-CAD was highly impactful and cost-effective across countries, reducing tuberculosis incidence by 61%–87% in prisons and 18%–28% population-wide. Compared to only biannual CXR-CAD (the next best strategy), the incremental cost per DALY averted of adding entry and exit screening was $2,984 (Brazil), $2,925 (Colombia), and $645 (Peru). Adding symptom screening to CXR-CAD marginally increased benefit and was only cost-effective in Peru’s higher-incidence prisons. Biannual screening alone remained cost-effective at prison incidence levels well below national averages, as well as at far lower willingness-to-pay thresholds. In settings without CXR-CAD, pooled Xpert was an impactful, cost-effective alternative. Key limitations include the model’s simplified representation of tuberculosis disease states and lack of stratification by age, gender/sex, HIV, or drug resistance. Conclusions These modeling results support immediate national-level adoption of prison-wide tuberculosis screening twice-yearly and at entry and exit, using CXR-CAD or pooled Xpert.

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24.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

REVEAL++: Differentiable Phenotypic Grouping for Vision-Language Retinal Modeling of Alzheimer's Disease Risk

Authors:
Ethan Elio Meidinger↗Seowung Leem↗Zeyun Zhao↗Ruogu Fang↗

arXiv:2606.19522v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The retina offers a noninvasive window into neurodegenerative disease, capturing subtle structural patterns associated with a risk of future cognitive decline. Vision-language alignment frameworks such as REVEAL have shown that pairing retinal fundus images with structured clinical risk narratives improves early prediction of Alzheimer's disease (AD). A key design choice in these approaches is the use of phenotypic grouping, where individuals with similar risk profiles are treated as multi-positive pairs during contrastive learning. However, existing methods operationalize phenotypic similarity as a discrete construct, relying on hard group assignments that impose rigid supervision and decouple group formation from representation learning. We propose a continuous formulation of phenotypic structure within contrastive learning. Rather than assigning samples to fixed clusters, we model inter-subject similarity as a differentiable weighting function derived from intra-modality embedding similarities in both retinal images and risk profiles. These weights define soft multi-positive relationships through a continuous aggregation operator, enabling graded supervision that reflects the spectrum nature of disease risk. We further introduce a soft-target contrastive objective that jointly learns cross-modal alignment and phenotypic structure in an end-to-end manner. Evaluated on UK Biobank retinal imaging data for incident AD prediction, the proposed framework consistently outperforms discrete group-based contrastive learning and standard vision-language baselines. By treating phenotypic similarity as a learnable, continuous signal rather than a fixed grouping rule, our approach provides a principled and robust foundation for population-scale neurodegenerative risk modeling from multi-modal retinal and clinical data.

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25.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-18

ForecastBench-Sim: A Simulated-World Forecasting Benchmark

Authors:
Jaeho Lee↗Nick Merrill↗Ezra Karger↗

Forecasting benchmarks for general-purpose AI systems usually inherit the constraints of the real world: outcomes resolve slowly, tail events are rare, and counterfactual questions are difficult to score. We introduce ForecastBench-Sim, a simulated-world forecasting benchmark built on game rollouts from Freeciv, a turn-based strategy game modelled on the Civilization series. Forecasters receive a fixed world report (a structured snapshot of the current game state) and answer questions about hidden future states; the benchmark then continues the simulation and scores forecasts. Because the world is simulated, the same setup can generate continuous or binary forecasting questions at arbitrary time horizons, paired intervention worlds for conditional or causal questions, and resolved examples of rare or disruptive outcomes. We describe the benchmark pipeline, question families, scoring protocol, and release artifacts, and report validation slices from model evaluations and an anonymized human pilot. ForecastBench-Sim is intended to complement real-world forecasting benchmarks by providing controlled, immediately resolvable tasks for studying probabilistic reasoning under dynamic world states.

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