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01.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-16

Probabilities

Authors:
Jean-Yves Ouvrard↗Xavier Ouvrard↗

arXiv:2601.18853v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Probabilities is the English translation of the book Probabilités Tome 1 and Tome 2. The mathematic content is authored by Prof. Jean-Yves Ouvrard. The English version has been done by his eldest son Dr. Xavier Ouvrard. This probability theory book covers not only an introduction to this field, but also advanced concepts based on measure theory. The first part introduces the fundamentals of probability theory across 7 chapters, targeting bachelor level, including event algebras, random variables, independence, conditional probabilities, moments of discrete and continuous random variables, generating functions, and limit theorems. The second part contains 10 chapters and corresponds to master level. Following a brief introduction to measure theory, this part develops more advanced topics: probability measures and their complements, distributions and moments of random variables, modes of convergence, laws of large numbers, conditional expectation, Fourier transforms and characteristic functions, Gaussian random variables, convergence of measures, convergence in distribution, discrete-time stochastic processes, martingales, and Markov chains. The reader's work is greatly facilitated by the inclusion, in every chapter, of numerous exercises, all accompanied by detailed solutions that often provide substantial extensions to the theoretical material.

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02.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-17

LoopCoder-v2: Only Loop Once for Efficient Test-Time Computation Scaling

Authors:
Jian Yang↗Shawn Guo↗Wei Zhang↗Tianyu Zheng↗Yaxin Du↗Haau-Sing Li↗Jiajun Wu↗Yue Song↗Yan Xing↗Qingsong Cai↗Zelong Huang↗Chuan Hao↗…

arXiv:2606.18023v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Looped Transformers scale latent computation by repeatedly applying shared blocks, but sequential looping increases latency and KV-cache memory with the loop count. Parallel loop Transformers (PLT) alleviate this cost through cross-loop position offsets (CLP) and shared-KV gated sliding-window attention, making loop count a practical design choice. We therefore study PLT loop-count selection through a gain–cost view: an extra loop may refine representations, but CLP also introduces a positional mismatch at each loop boundary. We instantiate this study by training LoopCoder-v2, a family of 7B PLT coders with different loop counts, from scratch on 18T tokens, followed by matched instruction tuning and evaluation. Empirically, the two-loop variant delivers broad gains over the non-looped baseline across code generation, code reasoning, agentic software engineering, and tool-use benchmarks, improving SWE-bench Verified from 43.0 to 64.4 points and Multi-SWE from 14.0 to 31.0 points. In contrast, variants with three or more loops regress, revealing a strongly non-monotonic loop-count effect. Our diagnostics show that loop 2 provides the main productive refinement, while later loops yield diminishing, oscillatory updates and reduced representational diversity. Because the CLP-induced mismatch remains roughly fixed as refinement gains shrink, the offset cost increasingly dominates. This gain–cost trade-off explains PLT's saturation at two loops and provides diagnostics for loop-count selection.

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03.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-12

Detecting Explanatory Insufficiency in Learned Representations: A Framework for Representational Vigilance

Authors:
Jacques Raynal↗Pierre Slangen↗Elsa Raynal↗Jacques Margerit↗

arXiv:2606.13172v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Learned representations are central to modern machine learning and are commonly evaluated through predictive performance, robustness, uncertainty estimation, or generalization. However, a learned representation may remain operationally successful while progressively failing to organize persistent residual structures that are not fully captured by conventional evaluation metrics. This article introduces VER, the Vigilant Evaluator of Representations, a conceptual framework for monitoring representational adequacy in learned representations. VER does not propose a new learning algorithm, loss function, or model architecture. Instead, it formalizes a diagnostic process through which persistent residual structures may be identified, analyzed, and interpreted as potential indicators of explanatory insufficiency. The framework distinguishes representational inadequacy from ordinary prediction error, uncertainty, noise, and distribution shift. It introduces a monitoring sequence based on representation identification, explanatory-domain delimitation, residual-structure detection, explanatory-resistance evaluation, and vigilance signaling. VER is intended as a contribution to representation diagnostics in machine learning. Its objective is not to replace existing evaluation methods but to complement them by treating representational adequacy as an explicit object of inquiry. A path toward empirical evaluation through representational-vigilance benchmarks is also outlined.

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04.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-22

MinderCare: protocol for a mixed-methods evaluation of a digitally enabled dementia care service.

Authors:
Jeyasingh-Jacob↗Tecilla↗Cro↗Lai↗Frigerio↗Joby↗Chavarro Novoa↗Fabusoro↗Rasulo↗James↗Amade Cassimo↗Hariss↗…

Introduction and aims Dementia is a growing public health challenge affecting millions of people worldwide. It is a progressive condition that increases the risk of infections, falls, hospital admissions, dependence in activities of daily living, safety issues such as wandering, care home transfers, and death. New ways of supporting people living with dementia (PLWD) at home are urgently needed. We describe the MinderCare study which evaluates a digitally enabled care model that integrates low-burden sensor-based remote monitoring within a nurse-led clinical service. Methods and analysis In this mixed-methods study, we will recruit 100 people with confirmed or suspected dementia living at home and deploy the Minder remote monitoring system for at least 12 months. A detailed characterisation of the cohort will be obtained, including cognition, frailty, participant and carer wellbeing, functioning, and quality of life. The feasibility, acceptability, sustainability, and resource requirements of the service will also be assessed. Low-cost sensors provide information about behaviour, environment and physiology from the home. Machine-learning algorithms have been used to develop digital biomarkers of infection, sleep, night-time behaviours, daily activities and routines, and the effects of clinical events and treatment. These will be assessed through clinical reports of sensor-derived data that include anomaly alerts provided to the clinical teams. Algorithms will be assessed for their clinical utility and acceptability. The comparative-effectiveness component will be designed as a target trial emulation using linked electronic health-record data to construct a time-indexed external usual-care control cohort. The primary comparative outcome will be Days Alive and Out of Hospital (DAOH) over 12 months from the activation-index date, with healthcare utilisation, costs, institutionalisation and mortality assessed as secondary outcomes. DAOH and estimated MinderCare effects will also be examined across prespecified strata of baseline inpatient utilisation. Ethics and dissemination Ethical approval has been granted by the North East Newcastle and North Tyneside 2 Research Ethics Committee, and the study has received confirmation of capacity and capability by the Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust. Study findings will be disseminated to patients, health and social care professionals, and policymakers through peer-reviewed publications and conference presentations. Study registration number: ISRCTN14997677 and NIHR portfolio CPMSID 63023.

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05.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

RSRCC: A Remote Sensing Regional Change Comprehension Benchmark Constructed via Retrieval-Augmented Best-of-N Ranking

Authors:
Roie Kazoom↗Yotam Gigi↗George Leifman↗Tomer Shekel↗Genady Beryozkin↗

Traditional change detection identifies where changes occur, but does not explain what changed in natural language. Existing remote sensing change captioning datasets typically describe overall image-level differences, leaving fine-grained localized semantic reasoning largely unexplored. To close this gap, we present RSRCC, a new benchmark for remote sensing change question-answering containing 126k questions, split into 87k training, 17.1k validation, and 22k test instances. Unlike prior datasets, RSRCC is built around localized, change-specific questions that require reasoning about a particular semantic change. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first remote sensing change question-answering benchmark designed explicitly for such fine-grained reasoning-based supervision. To construct RSRCC, we introduce a hierarchical semi-supervised curation pipeline that uses Best-of-N ranking as a critical final ambiguity-resolution stage. First, candidate change regions are extracted from semantic segmentation masks, then initially screened using an image-text embedding model, and finally validated through retrieval-augmented vision-language curation with Best-of-N ranking. This process enables scalable filtering of noisy and ambiguous candidates while preserving semantically meaningful changes. The dataset is available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/google/RSRCC.

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06.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-12

ProPlay: Procedural World Models for Self-Evolving LLM Agents

Authors:
Yijun Ma↗Zehong Wang↗Yiyang Li↗Ziming Li↗Xiaoguang Guo↗Weixiang Sun↗Chuxu Zhang↗Yanfang Ye↗

Self-evolving agents are expected to improve through interaction without external supervision, but this remains difficult in partially observable environments where agents must explore actively, learn from limited feedback, and decide when to trust prior experience. Existing LLM-agent methods often rely on memory or planning modules, yet they rarely close the loop between them to continually refine an internal understanding of environment dynamics. We introduce ProPlay, a procedural world model that supports procedure-level preplay, where agents can rehearse future procedural paths using the learned world knowledge. Rather than representing experience as isolated rules or low-level action constraints, ProPlay abstracts successful trajectories into procedures and organizes them in a procedure graph that captures causal transitions among task stages. Each transition is associated with a reliability record embedding to estimate its task-specific contribution from past outcomes. Before each episode, ProPlay simulates future procedural trajectories over known graph structures as structured soft guidance; after execution, it refines the graph using environment feedback. Experiments on public benchmarks show that ProPlay consistently improves environment understanding and self-evolution capability over strong baselines. Our code has been released in https://github.com/antman9914/proplay.

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07.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-17

Variational Quantum Eigensolver-Based Quantum Bootstrap Embedding for Molecules

Authors:
Derek Peng↗

arXiv:2606.17095v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Simulating strongly correlated molecular systems on near-term quantum hardware remains challenging due to modern hardware's limited quantum volume and moderate-fidelity qubits. One potential way to circumvent this challenge is through bootstrap embedding (BE). Bootstrap embedding breaks molecules into smaller fragments that are then embedded into the "bath" of other fragments in an iterative way. Bootstrap embedding is appealing for quantum simulation because fragmenting the system reduces the qubit requirements for any given fragment. In this work, we develop a quantum bootstrap embedding (QBE) workflow that uses variational quantum eigensolver (VQE) fragment solvers and study the algorithmic choices that determine the overall VQE-QBE algorithm's success. To improve efficiency, we introduce FastAdaptVQE, a sparse matrix-accelerated form of the adaptive variational quantum eigensolver (ADAPT-VQE) that replaces symbolic commutator evaluation with direct statevector linear algebra, and MatrixFreeAdaptVQE, a matrix-free extension that removes the sparse-matrix memory bottleneck that appears when treating larger fragments. We also modify the ADAPT-VQE operator selection step by replacing the purely greedy choice with a look-ahead strategy. Benchmarks on $H_4$ and $F_2$ reach chemical accuracy, within 1 kcal/mol of bootstrap embedding results using a full configuration interaction (FCI) solver. These results show that combining QBE with VQE can accurately calculate energies of molecular systems. This research lays the foundation for extending energy calculations to larger molecular systems and quantum materials on near-term quantum hardware.

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08.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

Counterfactual Explanations for Deep Two-Sample Testing

Authors:
Wei-Cheng Lai↗Marco Simnacher↗Christoph Lippert↗

arXiv:2606.04009v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Two-sample testing is a fundamental tool for detecting distributional differences across scientific domains, but classical tests (including kernel-based tests) can be ineffective on high-dimensional structured data such as images. Recent deep two-sample tests improve sensitivity in these settings by learning informative representations, yet they provide limited insight into which data features drive rejection of the null hypothesis $H_0$. To address this issue, we propose a counterfactual explanation framework for deep two-sample testing that generates sample-level edits moving observations from a source group toward a target group while explicitly reducing the discrepancy measured by the test. Our method combines a diffusion autoencoder with a pretrained deep two-sample test model and optimizes a maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) objective in the test model's representation space to produce plausible counterfactuals. We quantify distribution-level effects through changes in the test statistic and the resulting two-sample p-values. We evaluate the method on synthetic 2D shape datasets and two MRI cohorts. Across both settings, the counterfactual transformations consistently increase p-values relative to the original samples, indicating that the edited source set becomes statistically closer to the target distribution under the test. We measure minimality using LPIPS to ensure the counterfactuals remain close to the original samples. The resulting edits provide interpretable evidence of the features associated with the detected group differences. On MRI, the localized changes are consistent with known anatomical differences between cohorts.

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09.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-24

PORTER: Language-Grounded Event Representations for Portable Structured EHR Foundation Models

Authors:
Lin Lawrence Guo↗Adam Paul Yan↗Emily Vettese↗Lillian Sung↗

Most electronic health record (EHR) foundation models encode clinical events as discrete event tokens from a fixed vocabulary and therefore cannot directly represent events containing unseen concepts or new combinations of concepts and attributes such as numeric values. This limits transfer across institutions and even across deployment pipelines within the same institution. We introduce PORTER, a language-grounded structured EHR foundation model that decouples event representation from this fixed vocabulary. PORTER represents events through their descriptions using a frozen text encoder, integrates numeric values through a dedicated pathway, and learns clinical dynamics over patient timelines with an autoregressively pretrained temporal backbone. Across 74 clinical prediction tasks at a pediatric hospital, PORTER matched the mean AUROC of a fixed-vocabulary model with the same temporal backbone and pretraining objective. When the same patient timelines were rendered using event descriptions not seen during pretraining, PORTER transferred without retraining or vocabulary mapping, recovering 97.1% of the mean AUROC of a model trained directly on the target vocabulary. When transferred to MIMIC, PORTER outperformed the fixed-vocabulary model, which dropped 69% of events because their tokens were unseen. Mechanistic analyses showed cross-vocabulary transfer tracked preservation of patient-level representation geometry rather than the scale of the text encoder, and the numeric pathway improved sensitivity to magnitude without disrupting clinical concept identity. PORTER also achieved higher AUROC than a task-specific text serialization comparator, at 329-fold lower amortized compute. PORTER is a step toward vocabulary-independent EHR foundation models that reduce the need for vocabulary harmonization while preserving in-domain performance and enabling efficient cross-task reuse.

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10.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

3D Consistency Optimization for Self-Supervised Monocular Video Depth Estimation

Authors:
Yuanye Liu↗Ke Zhang↗Junzhe Jiang↗Li Zhang↗Vishal Patel↗Xiahai Zhuang↗

Reliable monocular video depth estimation is crucial for downstream 3D reasoning and embodied AI in endoscopic navigation. However, existing self-supervised approaches typically treat video frames independently or rely on weak temporal regularization. These methods, lacking a holistic perception of the underlying 3D scene, inevitably suffer from geometrically inconsistent predictions and severe cross-frame drift. To address these limitations, we introduce a new paradigm that recasts sequential video depth estimation as an unconstrained multi-view 3D reconstruction problem, enabling full exploitation of the powerful geometric priors embedded in recent 3D foundation models. The core of our approach is a 3D consistency optimization framework driven by three constraints: image-level photometric rendering, explicit world-coordinate geometric alignment, and multi-scale temporal gradient consistency. Such unified optimization elegantly anchors isolated frames to a globally coherent 3D structure. Our method has been validated in both the self-supervised training scenarios and challenging zero-shot clinical environments. Results show that the proposed approach achieves state-of-the-art spatial accuracy, outperforming the frame-based, video-based depth estimators and the multi-view 3D reconstruction baselines.

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11.
bioRxiv (Bioinfo) 2026-06-16

Accelerating String Comparison in RLZ Compressed Sequences via LCE Jumps

Authors:
Varki↗Boucher↗

Relative Lempel-Ziv (RLZ) is an effective compression method for large, repetitive collections; however, the fundamental primitives required to elevate it from a passive archival format to a tractable representation for compressed construction have yet to be fully established. In this paper, we introduce an algorithmic framework for structurally comparing and lexicographically sorting sequences of RLZ factors. We characterize when direct factor comparisons are necessary and when they can be bypassed using RLZ specific shortcuts. We further introduce a method for extending truncated factors into right-maximal matches, enabling the recovery of matching statistics from the RLZ parse. Experimentally, RLZ sorting achieved speedups of up to 3.93x over character-based sorting. Together, these results advance the use of the RLZ format as a foundation for compressed construction.

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12.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-12

Quantum Logic Codes: Complete Transversal Logical Clifford Instruction Sets for High-Rate Stabilizer Quantum Error Correcting Codes

Authors:
Adam Holmes↗

arXiv:2606.13521v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We study the structure and transversal logical capabilities of stabilizer quantum error correcting codes. Among our results, we identify universal lower bounds on circuit depth to generate a full logical Clifford algebra, and develop novel constructions of logical transversal gates including a new depth-one transversal phase $\mathrm{\overline{S}}$ gate in the rotated surface code and a depth-one intra-block $\mathrm{\overline{CZ}}$ gate in the 2D-toric code that generalizes to all odd distances and all lengths $L\ge3$, respectively. Finally, we construct a high-rate non-LDPC CSS code family with parameters $[[n,\sqrt{n},\Theta({n^{\beta}})]]$ where $\beta \approx 0.2823$ in one demonstrated case, that provably possesses a constant-depth complete 2-local transversal logical Clifford basis instruction set architecture (ISA) composed of all individually targeted $\mathrm{\overline{S}}$, $\mathrm{\overline{SHS}} = \sqrt{X}$, and $\mathrm{\overline{CZ}}$ gates. This ISA is depth-one for certain subfamilies that we design and generally constant-depth under certain conditions. The code family is built from a small code with parameters $[[n_0, 2, d_0]]$, and is tunable in the standard way: it tiles out to form utility-scale logical qubit counts, and it scales up through concatenation to achieve higher distances and error suppression. We show that this construction preserves the depth-one complete transversal logical Clifford basis ISA when composed with these commuting construction actions, inheriting structure from the core codes so that at scale the complete logical Clifford basis ISA remains depth-one up to depth-two addressable operations between tiled cores. We call these Quantum Logic Codes.

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13.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-17

Differential Privacy of Gaussian Process Posterior Sampling

Authors:
Tomasz Maciazek↗

arXiv:2606.17995v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We study the privacy of releasing posterior sample paths from a Gaussian process (GP) when the entire training set including covariates and responses is private. Unlike standard differential-privacy (DP) mechanisms that add external noise, posterior sampling is random by construction. We show that this intrinsic randomness yields DP guarantees by deriving explicit Rényi-DP bounds for GP posterior sample-path release. The bounds separate posterior-mean leakage from data-dependent posterior-covariance leakage showing that meaningful privacy depends sharply on effective ridge regularisation. We apply membership-inference attacks to show that empirical leakage follows the predicted dependence on regularisation, posterior variance and the number of released posterior sample-paths. Utility experiments on downstream posterior-sampling tasks identify noisy-observation regimes where privacy-compatible regularisation preserves useful decisions with modest utility loss. When stronger privacy is needed, the intrinsic guarantee can be sharpened by adding calibrated GP noise, providing an explicit additional privacy knob.

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14.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

Once-for-All: Scalable Simultaneous Forecasting via Equilibrium State Estimation

Authors:
Beinan Xu↗Andy Song↗Jiti Gao↗Feng Liu↗

arXiv:2606.13285v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We introduce Equilibrium State Estimation (ESE), a novel paradigm for simultaneous prediction, where multiple interacting systems require separate yet coordinated forecasts. Such scenarios often arise in real-world settings such as economics and healthcare modeling. Unlike existing approaches that predict one system at a time, ESE forecasts all systems in a single pass. It first estimates the equilibrium state across systems, then generates holistic forecasts based on the difference between the current state and the estimated equilibrium. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets, including currency exchange and COVID-19 spread modeling, demonstrate that ESE is at least as accurate as state-of-the-art (SOTA) methods while being significantly faster. In addition, ESE integrates seamlessly with conventional predictors, combining their accuracy with its exceptional efficiency and delivering a 10-70x speedup. With linear-time complexity, ESE scales far better than SOTA methods as the number of systems increases. Moreover, it remains accurate under diverse perturbations, establishing ESE as a fast, generalizable, robust, and scalable multi-prediction method.

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15.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-24

ErrorLLM: Modeling SQL Errors for Text-to-SQL Refinement

Authors:
Zijin Hong↗Hao Chen↗Zheng Yuan↗Qinggang Zhang↗Luyao Zhuang↗Qing Liao↗Feiran Huang↗Yangqiu Song↗Xiao Huang↗

Despite the remarkable performance of large language models (LLMs) in text-to-SQL (SQL generation), correctly producing SQL queries remains challenging during initial generation. The SQL refinement task is subsequently introduced to correct syntactic and semantic errors in generated SQL queries. However, existing paradigms face two major limitations: (i) self-debugging becomes increasingly ineffective as modern LLMs rarely produce explicit execution errors that can trigger debugging signals; (ii) self-correction exhibits low detection precision due to the lack of explicit error modeling grounded in the question and schema, and suffers from severe hallucination that frequently corrupts correct SQLs. In this paper, we propose ErrorLLM, a framework that explicitly models text-to-SQL Errors within a dedicated LLM for text-to-SQL refinement. Specifically, we represent the user question and database schema as structural features, employ static detection to identify execution failures and surface mismatches, and extend ErrorLLM's semantic space with dedicated error tokens that capture categorized implicit semantic error types. Through a well-designed training strategy, we explicitly model these errors with structural representations, enabling the LLM to detect complex implicit errors by predicting dedicated error tokens. Guided by the detected errors, we perform error-guided refinement on the SQL structure by prompting LLMs. Extensive experiments demonstrate that ErrorLLM achieves the most significant improvements over backbone initial generation. Further analysis reveals that detection quality directly determines refinement effectiveness, and ErrorLLM addresses both sides by high detection F1 score while maintain refinement effectiveness.

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16.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-24

Machine Learning Modeling for Real-Time Melt Pool Monitoring in Laser Powder Bed Fusion Additive Manufacturing: A Hybrid Approach

Authors:
Inioluwa Emmanuel↗Zhuo Yang↗Ho Yeung↗Xinyao Zhang↗

This work investigates the implementation of artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) for real-time monitoring in laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) additive manufacturing. We developed a binary image classification framework for distinguishing normal and abnormal melt pool images using a balanced dataset of 1,200 images collected from Nickel superalloy 625 on the NIST AMMT platform. The study evaluates accuracy and inference time based on control requirements and hardware limitations of open-architecture LPBF machines. We benchmark three transfer learning architectures (ResNet50, EfficientNetB0, and MobileNetV2) against two Random Forest approaches: one trained on EfficientNetB0 feature embeddings (hybrid) and one trained on raw pixel features (baseline). Images are stratified into 80/20 train-test splits, with a further 90/10 validation split on the training set, and undergo standardized resizing, normalization, and label-preserving data augmentation to emulate realistic process variability. Each model is evaluated using accuracy, precision, recall, F1 score, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), along with training time, inference latency, and CPU & GPU usage to capture deployability constraints relevant to factory-floor monitoring. The hybrid EfficientNetB0-plus-Random Forest approach achieves the best performance on the held-out test set, with an F1 score of 0.9451, accuracy of 0.9458, and AUC of 0.9904, while maintaining sub-millisecond per-image inference (1.15 ms). In contrast, purely deep learning models exhibit significantly higher inference times with lower accuracy. These results demonstrate that combining pre-trained convolutional features with classical ensemble methods provides a robust, computationally efficient route to real-time melt pool anomaly detection in data-limited additive manufacturing environments.

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17.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19

SSH-Net: A Deep Neural Network for Predicting Failure Time Distribution Functions under Competing Risks with Application to GPU Data

Authors:
Jie Min↗Yueyao Wang↗Mengkun Chen↗

arXiv:2606.20451v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Competing risks are commonly observed in engineering fields and can bring challenges to time-to-event data modeling when the application scenarios are complicated. Recently, deep neural networks have received great attention for prediction with competing risks, due to their flexibility and high learning capability. However, the complexity of neural network structure brings extra difficulty in hyperparameter tuning based on different data inputs. Additionally, when an engineered system has complex physical structures with multiple hierarchical levels, treating all structural levels as a single group of inputs may fail to capture critical information. To address the issues, we propose a Structured Segmented Hazard Deep Neural Network (SSH-Net) for failure time prediction under cause-specific competing risks framework. Our approach associates neural network structure with data structures, and allows different covariate groups to impact the failure prediction through separate sub-networks. The neural network is constructed based on a cause-specific competing risks model. The SSH-Net outputs cause-specific hazard functions, and utilizes the penalized log-likelihood as the loss function. The prediction accuracy of SSH-Net is validated through simulation studies by evaluating the Brier score, the area under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC), and the root mean square error (RMSE) of the predicted cause-specific cumulative incident function. We further demonstrate the model's ability to predict failure time distribution functions using the Titan GPU failure time data.

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18.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

Hierarchical Fine-Grained Aerial Object Detection

Authors:
Yan Zhang↗Fang Xu↗Wen Yang↗Gui-Song Xia↗

Fine-grained aerial object detection, driven by the intrinsic granularity of real-world object categories, is crucial for advanced scene understanding in remote sensing. Existing methods largely inherit the paradigm of coarse-grained object detection, relying solely on single-label supervision and thus struggling to distinguish model-level categories with subtle structural differences. However, for each specific model (e.g., Boeing 787), structured prior knowledge such as attributes and hierarchies offers discriminative semantics across multiple granularities. Motivated by this, we present ExpertDet, a scheme that incorporates expert-informed cues to enhance fine-grained aerial object detection. Specifically, we design Vision-aware Masked Attribute Modeling (VMAM), which aligns attribute semantics with visual structures by reconstructing randomly masked attributes from visual cues, enabling the detector to capture subtle structural distinctions. We further propose Hierarchical Visual Instance Promotion (HierVIP), which builds a visual prototype tree based on hierarchical relations and imposes taxonomy-aware constraints to preserve cross-level semantic continuity while enhancing category discrimination. Moreover, we curate a new fine-grained object detection benchmark for Precise recognition of model-specific Ships and Planes from aerial imagery, PSP, covering 106 ship classes and 30 airplane models, respectively, featuring the most extensive collection of model-specific categories among existing aerial object detection datasets to date. We benchmark state-of-the-art object detection algorithms on the PSP benchmark. Extensive evaluation demonstrates that ExpertDet consistently outperforms other fine-grained competitors across hierarchy levels. The dataset, benchmark, and code are available at https://nnnnerd.github.io/PSP-Benchmark/.

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19.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

Towards Engineering Scaling Laws with Pretraining Data Composition

Authors:
Jan-Lucas Uslu↗Kevin Greif↗Daniel Whiteson↗Benjamin Nachman↗

arXiv:2606.19781v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Neural scaling laws describe how model performance improves as a power law in compute, model size, and dataset size. While well-established for large language models, these relationships are emerging for large models in particle physics. As with language, empirical studies show that the performance scales as a power law. However, unlike natural language or image domains, fundamental physics has high-fidelity simulators that produce synthetic data cheaply. This favors scaling regimes where additional data is cheaper than additional parameters, and allows the pretraining dataset itself to be engineered to influence the scaling. For the task of classifying hadronic jets produced in collisions of high-energy particle beams, we show that the scaling behavior can be engineered towards requiring more data rather than larger models by inclusion of pretraining data which is more diverse and better aligned with the downstream classification task.

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20.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-17

Nothing from Something: Can a Language Model Discover 0?

Authors:
Phoebe Zeng↗Thomas L. Griffiths↗Brenden M. Lake↗

AI systems based on artificial neural networks are being developed with aspirations of pushing the boundary of human mathematical knowledge. A key question for these systems is how much they can reach beyond their training data. Mathematical discovery requires a strong form of out of distribution generalization; the ability to hypothesize genuinely new - and potentially logically more powerful - mathematical structures. It has been hypothesized that language abilities support such generalizations in human cognition. In this work, we use simple arithmetic as a case study for examining how modern AI models could expand their mathematical horizons, evaluating whether these models can independently discover the concept of "zero". We show that We show that (1) language models of a GPT-2 size are unable to perform this generalization at test time regardless of language pretraining, but (2) models can improve substantially after training on tens or hundreds of examples of zero. Additionally, we find that language pretraining reduces the number of required examples by approximately $50\%$, showing that language abilities can scaffold mathematical discovery in neural models.

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21.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

An LLM System for Autonomous Variational Quantum Circuit Design

Authors:
Kenya Sakka↗Wataru Mizukami↗Kosuke Mitarai↗

arXiv:2606.13380v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: The design of high performing quantum circuits remains largely dependent on human expertise. We introduce an autonomous agentic framework that employs large language models (LLMs) to conduct iterative quantum circuit designs under explicit design constraints. Our system integrates seven components: Exploration, Generation, Discussion, Validation, Storage, Evaluation, and Review. These components form a closed-loop workflow that combines web-based knowledge acquisition, literature-grounded critique, executable code generation, and experimental feedback. We evaluate the framework on two tasks: quantum feature map construction for quantum machine learning and ansatz generation for variational quantum eigensolver applications in quantum chemistry. In image classification benchmarks, the best generated feature map outperforms representative quantum feature maps and, when scaled to larger qubit counts, surpasses the classical radial basis function kernel. In molecular ground state estimation across seven molecules, the generated ansatz attains competitive accuracy with widely used chemically inspired and hardware-efficient constructions while satisfying the imposed scaling constraints. These results establish LLM driven agentic system as a viable paradigm for automated quantum circuit design and illustrate how AI systems can participate in iterative scientific optimization workflows across scientific domains.

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22.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-19

Model-independent upper bounds for the prices of Bermudan options with convex payoffs

Authors:
David Hobson↗Dominykas Norgilas↗

arXiv:2503.13328v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Suppose $\mu$ and $\nu$ are probability measures on $\mathbb{R}$ satisfying $\mu \leq_{cx} \nu$. Let $a$ and $b$ be convex functions on $\mathbb{R}$ with $a \geq b \geq 0$. We are interested in finding $$\sup_{\mathbf{M}} \sup_{\tau} \mathbb{E}^{\mathbf{M}} \left[ a(X) I_{ \{ \tau = 1 \} } + b(Y) I_{ \{ \tau = 2 \} } \right] $$ where the first supremum is taken over consistent models $\mathbf{M}$ (i.e., filtered probability spaces $(\Omega, \mathbf{F}, \mathbb{F}, \mathbb{P})$ such that $Z=(z,Z_1,Z_2)=(\int_{\mathbb{R}} x \mu(dx) = \int_{\mathbb{R}} y \nu(dy), X, Y)$ is a $(\mathbb{F},\mathbb{P})$ martingale, where $X$ has law $\mu$ and $Y$ has law $\nu$ under $\mathbb{P}$) and $\tau$ in the second supremum is a $(\mathbb{F},\mathbb{P})$-stopping time taking values in $\{1,2\}$. Our contributions are first to characterise and simplify the dual problem, and second to completely solve the problem under some structural assumptions on the measures $\mu$ and $\nu$ (namely that $\mu$ and $\nu$ are absolutely continuous probability measures that satisfy the Dispersion Assumption). A key finding is that the canonical set-up in which the filtration is that generated by $Z$ is not rich enough to define an optimal model and additional randomisation is required. This holds even though the marginal laws $\mu$ and $\nu$ are atom-free. The problem has an interpretation of finding the robust, or model-free, no-arbitrage bound on the price of a Bermudan option with two possible exercise dates, given the prices of co-maturing European options.

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23.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

Learning Directional Semantic Transitions for Longitudinal Chest X-ray Analysis

Authors:
Zhangfeng Hu↗Zefan Yang↗Ge Wang↗Tanveer Syeda-Mahmood↗Anushree Burade↗Mannudeep Kalra↗Pingkun Yan↗

Chest X-ray (CXR) interpretation often requires longitudinal comparison to assess disease progression. Existing approaches typically rely on temporal feature fusion or inter-study discrepancy modeling, yet remain limited in capturing subtle progression semantics and overlook the inherently directional nature of disease trajectories. In this paper, we propose ProTrans, a novel vision-language pretraining framework that formulates disease progression as a directional semantic transition between paired CXR studies. ProTrans leverages radiology reports to anchor individual CXR representations within interpretable disease states, and introduces a learnable progression feature map to explicitly encode semantic shifts between states, aligned with report-derived progression descriptions. To enforce direction-aware perception, ProTrans incorporates a reversed temporal modeling process and imposes bidirectional reconstruction consistency across states and transitions, thereby disentangling directional semantics and promoting coherent trajectory modeling. Extensive experiments on longitudinal downstream tasks, including disease progression classification and progression captioning, demonstrate that ProTrans consistently outperforms existing methods, establishing a unified pretraining framework for longitudinal CXR understanding. https://github.com/RPIDIAL/ProTrans

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24.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-22

Development and validation of a risk prediction algorithm to estimate all-cause mortality among community-dwelling Canadians: the Mortality Population Risk Tool (MPoRT)

Authors:
Manuel↗Bader Eddeen↗Fines↗Bennett↗Fisher↗Jessri↗Perez↗Tuna↗Sanmartin↗Sequeira↗Li↗Rosella↗…

BACKGROUND: The risk of all-cause mortality can inform decision-making for chronic disease prevention. We developed a predictive algorithm to estimate the 5-year risk of death among community-dwelling adults. METHODS: We derived and validated the Mortality Population Risk Tool (MPoRT) using data from population health surveys in Canada (the Canadian Community Health Survey) and the United States (the National Health Interview Survey), survey years 2001 to 2011, linked to vital statistics. The outcome was death within five years of the survey response. The algorithm was developed using data from Ontario respondents using a Cox proportional hazards model, then modified and re-estimated to allow cross-national assessment in Canada and the United States. Twenty-three prespecified predictors were assessed: seven sociodemographic, six behavioural, and ten general health and chronic disease. RESULTS: 527,369 respondents aged 20 to 105 years were included in the Canadian and United States development and validation cohorts, with 43,758 deaths during 3.68 million person-years follow-up. The final sex-specific MPoRT algorithms each contained 21 variables, showing strong discrimination (C-statistic: females 0.874 [0.871–0.877]; males 0.867 [0.865–0.871]) and good calibration overall and in 246 of 247 subgroups. Discrimination was modestly attenuated (0.01 decrease in C-statistic) in cross-national validation between Canada and the United States, with good calibration across all 71 subgroups. INTERPRETATION: MPoRT accurately discriminated all-cause mortality using only self-reported data, enabling broad application without clinical measures. While validation outside North America is needed to confirm broader applicability, MPoRT is designed for straightforward recalibration using routinely available national mortality data. This supports targeted chronic disease prevention strategies at both the population and individual levels, though the limitations inherent to self-reported predictors should be considered when interpreting predictions.

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25.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-12

Matrix phase-space representations for gaussian boson sampling

Authors:
Peter D. Drummond↗Alexander S. Dellios↗Margaret D. Reid↗

arXiv:2503.12749v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We introduce coherent matrix phase-space distributions. These use conservation laws and symmetries to improve the accuracy and speed of quantum phase-space representations. As an example, this is applied to validation of low-loss Gaussian boson sampling (GBS) quantum computational advantage experiments, where classical generation of the random photon-number counts is exponentially hard. Large improvements in sampling errors are demonstrated compared to previous methods. Matrix phase-space representations also provide a large numerical speed-up, due to their (at worst) quadratic scaling, compared to other methods for validating total count probabilities of large-scale, low-loss GBS networks.

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