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01.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-19

Theory of uncertain probability: can we derive the probability density function of uncertain random experiments with continuously changing conditions?

Authors:
Xiaolin Gong↗

arXiv:2606.20169v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: This paper aims to explore the formation mechanism of probability distribution in situations where the differences among random experiments are distinguishable, and these differences continue to evolve along with the dynamic changes in conditions and their mechanisms of action. To this end, we are motivated to devise a new theoretical system – theory of uncertain probability (TUP) with Kolmogorov's system and nonlinear theories as special cases. TUP develops a novel model that integrates probability and uncertainty as well as the known and unknown to more accurately depict numerous typical random phenomena under more realistic assumptions, and thus provides appropriate tools for greater variety of real needs. It also allows for pioneering interpretation of the causal mechanisms underlying many important distributional characteristics and incorporation of pathwise property to distribution model.

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02.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

Benchmarking Counterfactual Prediction in Epidemic Time Series with Time-Varying Interventions

Authors:
Wenhao Mu↗Facundo Yan↗Anik Mumssen↗Marisa Eisenberg↗Alexander Rodr\'iguez↗

arXiv:2606.05692v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Deep learning has enabled significant advances in time-series causal inference, yet progress remains constrained by the lack of realistic benchmarks with observable counterfactual outcomes. Existing datasets either rely on real-world observations without ground-truth counterfactuals or on simplified simulations that fail to capture complex causal dynamics. To address this gap, we develop a large-scale benchmark for counterfactual prediction in epidemic time series under dynamic interventions. Unlike existing benchmarks, it supports static and time-varying treatments, as well as both single-policy and multi-policy intervention settings, enabling evaluation of causal inference methods across a broad range of causal inference scenarios. Leveraging a calibrated agent-based model grounded in real-world demographic, mobility, epidemiological, and policy data, we generate realistic counterfactual trajectories across more than 150 U.S. counties. Using this benchmark, we evaluate widely used and state-of-the-art causal inference methods, revealing substantial performance differences and highlighting the challenges of realistic time-series causal reasoning.

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03.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-18

Beyond AHI: An Interpretable Causal-Discovery-Guided Framework for Sleep Recovery in Connected Health

Authors:
Saba A. Farahani↗Elahe Khatibi↗Manoj Vishwanath↗Amir M. Rahmani↗Hung Cao↗

arXiv:2606.18506v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Objective sleep assessment relies on polysomnography (PSG), yet clinical impact is often better reflected in patient-reported outcomes (PROs) such as sleepiness and fatigue. Existing summary indices, including the Apnea-Hypopnea Index (AHI), provide limited insight into the multidomain physiology underlying functional recovery. We propose an interpretable, causal-discovery–guided framework for deriving a hierarchical Sleep Recovery Score (SRS) from multimodal PSG. Using two large population cohorts (MESA: n=1540; MrOS: n=825), we apply directed acyclic graph (DAG) learning to identify candidate physiological drivers spanning respiratory burden, hypoxic burden, sleep fragmentation, sleep architecture, and autonomic regulation. Although derived from clinical PSG, these domains map naturally to sensing streams increasingly available in connected health technologies, including wearable ECG, oximetry, and sleep-stage estimation devices. To preserve mechanistic plausibility, we introduce a two-stage screening process that combines physiology-based constraints with constrained LLM-assisted auditing to identify and remove structural confounders and construct-overlapping variables. Across cohorts, these five domains emerge as recurrent physiological domains associated with recovery, and the resulting SRS shows up to 2.5$\times$ stronger alignment with perceived recovery than AHI. By linking multimodal sleep physiology to patient-centered outcomes through an interpretable, bias-aware, and domain structured framework, this work provides a practical foundation for recovery modeling across both clinical sleep studies and emerging smart and connected health settings.

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04.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-18

When AUC Misleads: Polarization-Aware Evaluation of Deepfake Detectors under Domain Shift

Authors:
Dat Nguyen↗Cosmin Radoi↗Romain Hermary↗Marcella Astrid↗Nesryne Mejri↗Enjie Ghorbel↗Djamila Aouada↗

Recent advances in generative AI, such as diffusion models and face-swapping tools, have enabled the creation of highly realistic deepfakes, leading to real-world harms including financial fraud and non-consensual explicit content. In response, deepfake detection has become an active research area, with recent methods increasingly focusing on improving generalization to unseen manipulations. This is typically evaluated using the Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) measured separately across multiple datasets. However, such an evaluation fails to reflect real-world scenarios where detectors face a mixture of data sources and varying artifact types. To address this limitation, we introduce a novel metric, Cross-dataset AUC (Cross-AUC) that averages per-domain AUCs with a measure of prediction polarization for taking into account the robustness to domain shift. The polarization extent is quantified by the Wasserstein Distance between class score distributions. Cross-AUC not only assesses the generalization capabilities of deepfake detectors under domain shifts more realistically, but it is also interpretable as it better explains the reason behind a drop in performance. Experiments performed on seven benchmark datasets demonstrate its practical relevance.

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05.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

CASHEW: Stabilizing Multimodal Reasoning via Iterative Trajectory Aggregation

Authors:
Chaoyu Li↗Deeparghya Dutta Barua↗Fei Tao↗Pooyan Fazli↗

Vision-language models achieve strong performance across a wide range of multimodal understanding and reasoning tasks, yet their multi-step reasoning remains unstable. Repeated sampling over the same input often produces divergent reasoning trajectories and inconsistent final predictions. To address this, we introduce two complementary approaches inspired by test-time scaling: (1) CASHEW, an inference-time framework that stabilizes reasoning by iteratively aggregating multiple candidate trajectories into higher-quality reasoning traces, with explicit visual verification filtering hallucinated steps and grounding reasoning in visual evidence, and (2) CASHEW-RL, a learned variant that internalizes this aggregation behavior within a single model. CASHEW-RL is trained using Group Sequence Policy Optimization (GSPO) with a composite reward that encourages correct answers grounded in minimal yet sufficient visual evidence, while adaptively allocating reasoning effort based on task difficulty. This training objective enables robust self-aggregation at inference. Extensive experiments on 13 image understanding, video understanding, and video reasoning benchmarks show significant performance improvements, including gains of up to +26.2 percentage points on ScienceQA and +9.1 percentage points on EgoSchema.

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06.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-19

OTCHA: Optimal Transport-driven Confidence-aware Latent Hub Alignment for Multi-View Medical Image Classification

Authors:
Jiwoong Yang↗Haejun Chung↗Ikbeom Jang↗

Multi-view imaging, such as mammography and chest radiography, is a standard component of clinical practice. However, medical images are often unregistered and contain view-specific artifacts or irrelevant background cues that can obscure diagnostically relevant findings. Many existing methods directly fuse per-view representations, allowing such irrelevant content to contaminate the fused embedding and reducing robustness under varying view configurations. We propose OTCHA, a confidence-aware latent hub token alignment module based on optimal transport (OT) that refines patch tokens before fusion for multi-view classification. OTCHA introduces a set of learnable latent hub tokens shared across views. For each view, we compute an OT plan between patch tokens and hub tokens that jointly considers feature similarity and geometry, and augment the OT formulation with token-conditional dustbins to enable partial matching and discard irrelevant tokens. The resulting transport plan provides token-wise matching confidence, which gates hub-mediated message passing and weights a novel optimal-transport-based representation alignment loss to stabilize refinement. Experiments on three multi-view medical image datasets demonstrate consistent improvements over competing baselines across diverse anatomies and view configurations. Our code is available at https://github.com/labhai/OTCHA.

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07.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-15

When Language Representations Interact: Separability and Cross-Lingual Effects in LLMs

Authors:
Boris Marinov↗Angira Sharma↗Christian Schroeder de Witt↗Philip Torr↗Anisoara Calinescu↗Jialin Yu↗

arXiv:2606.14347v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large language models exhibit strong multilingual capabilities, however, their internal representations are difficult to interpret. Understanding these interactions is important for ensuring reliable behavior in multilingual systems. Recent work has shown that causal-geometric structure can explain how certain concepts are encoded as approximately linear and separable directions, but whether this framework extends to multilingual models, where language identity is correlated and hierarchical, is underexplored. We apply causal-geometric analysis to multilingual LLMs, studying 28 bilingual contrasts across three models, allowing us to analyze when languages behave as approximately independent factors and when structured dependencies persist. We find evidence that language concepts admit stable linear representations that are largely separable under a covariance-adjusted (causal) inner product, with structured deviations reflecting linguistic similarity. Moreover, languages within the same family (such as Germanic or Romance) exhibit a simplex-like geometric structure, suggesting hierarchical organization. These results extend causal-geometric interpretability to multilingual settings and provide insight into how separability and similarity may exist in multilingual LLM representations, motivating interpretability analyses that diagnose when and how structured dependencies between concepts can be anticipated. This has implications for trustworthy deployment, as residual structure between languages may lead to unintended cross-lingual effects when models are monitored or intervened upon.

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08.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-12

Stereo Vision-Based Fall Prediction and Detection using Human Pose Estimation on the AMD Kria K26 SOM

Authors:
Shreyas Narasimhiah Ramesh↗P. D. Rathika↗Mahasweta Sarkar↗Kristen Wells↗Michel Audette↗Christopher Paolini↗

Background and Objective: Falls among elderly people can cause serious injury and reduce quality of life. Timely prediction and detection are essential to prevent harm and support well-being. We propose a portable, low-power, battery-operated, vision-based fall prediction and detection system using HPE on an AMD Kria K26 System-on-Module (SOM). The objective is a non-intrusive, privacy-preserving system for real-time fall detection. Methods: The system uses an Intel RealSense D455 range-sensing camera connected to the K26 SOM by USB. It captures synchronized RGB and depth frames, 640 x 480 x 3 and 640 x 480 pixels, at 60 FPS. The SOM runs a three-stage pipeline with quantized YOLOX, Anchor-to-Joint (A2J), and fall-detection models. YOLOX identifies human bounding boxes from RGB frames, then discards the RGB frames to preserve privacy. A2J uses depth frames to estimate 15 joint keypoints per person. A CNN uses selected joint coordinates (x, y, z) to classify fall activity. YOLOX was trained on CrowdHuman; A2J on ITOP, MP-3DHP, UR Fall Detection, and a custom SDSU PSG dataset; and the CNN on UR Fall Detection and SDSU PSG. The design used a single-core DPU with a serial pipeline and a dual-core DPU running YOLOX and A2J with multiple threads. Results: Quantized accuracy was evaluated using IoU >= 50% for YOLOX, mAP with a 10-cm rule for A2J, and classification accuracy, (TP + TN)/(TP + TN + FP + FN), for the CNN. Accuracies were 74%, 84.13%, and 75.85%. Throughput improved from 2.5 FPS for the single-threaded pipeline to 4.5 FPS for the multi-threaded version. Conclusion: Results demonstrate the feasibility of privacy-preserving fall detection on an AMD Kria K26 edge device. On-device HPE and fall classification runs without cloud dependency, supporting elderly monitoring and assistive healthcare. Future work will improve model accuracy and speed.

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09.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-11

PCS-UQ: Uncertainty Quantification via the Predictability-Computability-Stability Framework

Authors:
Abhineet Agarwal↗Fange Xiao↗Rebecca Barter↗Omer Ronen↗Boyu Fan↗Bin Yu↗

arXiv:2505.08784v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: As machine learning (ML) enters high-stakes domains, trustworthy uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for safety. In this paper we introduce PCS-UQ, a framework based on the Predictability, Computability, and Stability (PCS) principles for veridical data science. Starting with a candidate set of models or algorithms, PCS-UQ integrates a rigorous prediction-check to screen out unsuitable models in the set and utilizes bootstrap samples, in order to capture both inter-sample variability and algorithmic instability for the prediction-checked algorithms. We then introduce a novel multiplicative calibration scheme to enhance local adaptivity, which basically corresponds to a new score in conformal prediction. Moreover, we produce a compilation of 17 real-world regression datasets with manually-constructed subgroups. On this benchmark, PCS-UQ maintains the target coverage while outperforming or matching conformal methods equipped with oracle-selected algorithms in interval width. PCS-UQ achieves consistent subgroup coverage, outperforming these oracle-selected conformal methods. Notably, PCS-UQ stands out in achieving both competitive interval widths and consistent subgroup coverage.Across 6 classification datasets, PCS-UQ reduces prediction set sizes by 20\%. To scale the framework for deep learning, we propose computationally efficient variants that bypass expensive retraining. On three computer vision benchmarks, these variants reduce prediction set sizes by 20\% over conformal baselines. Finally, we provide theoretical proof that a modified PCS-UQ algorithm preserves valid coverage under exchangeability as a form of split conformal inference.

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10.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-12

A Unified Latent Space Disentanglement VAE Framework with Robust Disentanglement Effectiveness Evaluation

Authors:
Xiaoan Lang↗Md Mostafizer Rahman↗Fang Liu↗

arXiv:2603.11242v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Evaluating and interpreting latent representations, such as variational autoencoders (VAEs), remains a significant challenge for diverse data types, especially when ground-truth generative factors are unknown. To address this, we unify several state-of-the-art disentangled VAE approaches for latent space disentanglement into one framework – bfVAE. To assess the effectiveness of a disentangled VAE model and enhance latent space interpretability, we propose Feature Variance Heterogeneity via Latent Traversal (FVH-LT) and Dirty Block Sparse Regression in Latent Space (DBSR-LS). To ensure robust interpretability of learned latent space, we develop a greedy alignment strategy (GAS) that mitigates label switching and aligns latent dimensions across runs to set the foundation of result aggregation. We also introduce a convenient scalar latent space separation index (LSSI) based on the GAS-aligned outputs of FVH-LT and DBSR-LS to summarize the overall latent structural separation without knowledge of the ground-truth generative factors. We compare bfVAE to five VAE models and validate the effectiveness FVH-LT, DBSR-LS, and LSSI in on seven tabular and image datasets. Under our examined experimental settings, bfVAE provides a more flexible disentanglement framework achieves more favorable overall trade-off between disentanglement and reconstruction than the benchmark VAE models; FVH-LT and DBSR-LS reliably uncover semantically meaningful and domain-relevant latent structures and generally yield consistent results; and LSSI makes an effective quantitative summary of latent structural separation.

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12.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-17

Vibrato Expression Control for Singing Voice Conversion with Improving Independent Control

Authors:
Joon-Seung Choi↗Dong-Min Byun↗Seong-Whan Lee↗

arXiv:2606.17126v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Singing style is a crucial aspect of a natural and expressive singing voice. Singers utilize singing styles to convey the feeling or emotion of the songs. Several works have been proposed to control singing style for making the more expressive singing voice. Recently, VibE-SVC successfully controls vibrato by predicting high-frequency F0 contour. In this paper, we introduce a singing voice conversion framework, called VibE-SVC2, to improve singing style conversion performance and controllability. The model offers control over two types of singing styles: a pitch style and a timbre style. For the pitch style, to resolve the pitch-energy entanglement issue that is unresolved in our previous work, we introduce a novel Energy Style Converter to address remaining style information in the energy contour. In addition, we propose a Zero-shot Pitch Style Converter, which mimics the pitch style of reference audio. To expand the controllability of the model, we propose vibrato rate scaling that is an independent control of vibrato extent, which is unavailable in VibE-SVC. For the timbre style, we extend the model to handle a variety of phonation styles. However, addressing specific styles such as vocal fry poses a challenge, as conventional F0 extraction often fails due to their inherent subharmonic characteristics, which degrades the conversion quality. To address this, we propose a novel Subharmonic Correction algorithm to refine the F0 contour for more natural timbre conversion. Through comprehensive objective and subjective evaluations, we demonstrate that VibE-SVC2 provides fine-grained, independent control over two types of singing styles, outperforming existing methods.

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13.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19

Capturing Intransitive Dominance in Tennis Forecasting: A Graph Neural Network Approach

Authors:
Lawrence Clegg↗John Cartlidge↗

arXiv:2510.20454v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Intransitive player dominance, where player A beats B, B beats C, but C beats A, is common in competitive tennis. Yet, there are few known attempts to incorporate it within forecasting methods. We address this problem with a graph neural network approach that explicitly models these intransitive relationships through temporal directed graphs, with players as nodes and their historical match outcomes as directed edges. Our model (65.7% accuracy, 0.214 Brier score) forecasts competitively with established rating systems such as Weighted Elo. Although it does not improve on the baseline in unconditional accuracy, a forecast-encompassing test shows that it carries complementary information. A combined forecast significantly outperforms Weighted Elo, and there is some indication that the gain grows more strongly on the intransitive matchups our model targets. A graph-based representation of player interactions thus captures a forecasting signal that transitive rating systems discard, even between players who share no common opponents.

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14.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

Different Layers, Different Manifolds: Module-Wise Weight-Space Geometry in Transformer Optimization

Authors:
Kirato Yoshihara↗

arXiv:2606.13276v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Weight-space geometry plays a central role in neural network optimization, yet manifold constraints are often applied uniformly across all weight matrices. In this work, we ask whether different transformer modules prefer different manifold geometries. We study Manifold Muon for GPT-2 pretraining and compare layer-wise assignments of Stiefel and DGram constraints across attention and MLP blocks. Our results show a clear asymmetry: constraining attention layers with Stiefel geometry while assigning DGram geometry to MLP layers gives the best performance among the tested configurations, whereas the inverted assignment and all-DGram configuration become unstable under the shared hyperparameter setting. We trace this failure to singular value growth in DGram-constrained attention weights, which can amplify attention logits and induce softmax saturation. These findings suggest that symmetry-aware and geometry-aware optimization for transformers should be module-specific rather than uniform.

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15.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-17

Differential Privacy of Gaussian Process Posterior Sampling

Authors:
Tomasz Maciazek↗

arXiv:2606.17995v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We study the privacy of releasing posterior sample paths from a Gaussian process (GP) when the entire training set including covariates and responses is private. Unlike standard differential-privacy (DP) mechanisms that add external noise, posterior sampling is random by construction. We show that this intrinsic randomness yields DP guarantees by deriving explicit Rényi-DP bounds for GP posterior sample-path release. The bounds separate posterior-mean leakage from data-dependent posterior-covariance leakage showing that meaningful privacy depends sharply on effective ridge regularisation. We apply membership-inference attacks to show that empirical leakage follows the predicted dependence on regularisation, posterior variance and the number of released posterior sample-paths. Utility experiments on downstream posterior-sampling tasks identify noisy-observation regimes where privacy-compatible regularisation preserves useful decisions with modest utility loss. When stronger privacy is needed, the intrinsic guarantee can be sharpened by adding calibrated GP noise, providing an explicit additional privacy knob.

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16.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Active Learning with Low-Rank Structure for Data Selection

Authors:
Vincent Cohen-Addad↗Sasidhar Kunapuli↗Vahab Mirrokni↗Mahdi Nikdan↗David P. Woodruff↗Samson Zhou↗

arXiv:2606.16045v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In the data selection problem, the objective is to choose a small, representative subset of data that can be used to efficiently train a machine learning model. Sener and Savarese [ICLR 2018] showed that, given an embedding representation of the data and suitable geometric assumptions, heuristics based on $k$-center clustering can be used to perform data selection. This perspective was further explored by Axiotis et. al. [ICML 2024], who proposed a data selection approach based on $k$-means clustering and sensitivity sampling. However, these methods rely on the assumption that the dataset exhibits intrinsic geometric structure that can be effectively captured by clustering, whereas many modern datasets instead possess global algebraic structure that is better exploited by low-rank approximation or principal component analysis. In this paper, we introduce a new data selection framework based on low-rank approximation and residual-based sampling, formulated through the lens of row subset selection and loss-preserving coreset construction. Given an embedding representation of the data satisfying mild regularity conditions, which can be interpreted as algebraic or angular notions of Lipschitz continuity, we show that it is possible to select a weighted subset of $\tilde{O}\left(k + \frac{1}{\varepsilon^2}\right)$ data points whose average loss approximates the average loss over the full dataset within a $(1+\varepsilon)$ relative error, up to an additive $\varepsilon \Phi_k$ term, where $\Phi_k$ denotes the optimal rank-$k$ approximation cost of the embedding matrix. We complement these theoretical guarantees with empirical evaluations, demonstrating that on a range of real-world datasets, our data selection approach achieves improved performance over prior strategies based on uniform sampling or clustering-based sensitivity sampling.

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17.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-18

HAARES Half-Split Residual Basis Routing for Deep Transformers

Authors:
Kehan Wang↗

arXiv:2606.06564v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Block-level residual routing makes learned residual aggregation practical by routing over block summaries, but each summary compresses an ordered sequence of attention and MLP updates into one cumulative vector. We propose \method{}, a lightweight residual basis router that keeps the cumulative block source and adds one half-split detail basis, computed as the difference between first-half and second-half residual updates. The detail basis is RMS-matched and updated online, exposing coarse intra-block trajectory information without dense sublayer-level routing. Across OpenWebText, cross-domain character-level benchmarks, and BPE-tokenized OpenWebText, the empirical pattern is depth-dependent: gains are small or mixed at shallow depth and most reliable in 48-layer models. In the 201M 48-layer setting, \method{} improves over Block AttnRes across all three seeds, while a 453M two-seed probe shows the same direction. Ablations rule out source duplication, random signed details, fixed detail-source biases, or block-count changes alone. Cost analysis shows that the method is FLOP-light but not wall-clock-free: it adds memory and routing overhead, yet its relative arithmetic cost is amortized as width grows and earlier convergence can reduce time-to-target.

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18.
Science (Express) 2026-04-16

Protein-templated synthesis of dinucleotide repeat DNA by an antiphage reverse transcriptase | Science

Authors: Unknown Author

Defense-associated reverse transcriptases (DRTs) are widespread bacterial anti-phage systems that use unconventional mechanisms of polynucleotide synthesis. We show that DRT3, which comprises two distinct RTs (Drt3a and Drt3b) and a noncoding RNA (ncRNA), synthesizes alternating poly(GT/AC) double-stranded DNA. Cryo–electron microscopy structures at 2.6 Å resolution reveal a D3-symmetric 6:6:6 complex of Drt3a, Drt3b, and ncRNA. Drt3a produces the poly(GT) strand using a conserved ACACAC template within the ncRNA. Notably, Drt3b synthesizes a complementary, protein-primed poly(AC) strand in the complete absence of a nucleic acid template, using conserved active site residues specific to Drt3b to enforce precise base alternation. These findings expand the functional landscape of nucleic acid polymerases, revealing a protein-templated mechanism for sequence-specific DNA synthesis.

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19.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-15

Overhead Wildlife Locator (OWL): Benchmarking Weakly Supervised Learning for Aerial Wildlife Surveys

Authors:
Isai Daniel Chac\'on↗Zhongqi Miao↗Bruno Demuro↗Caleb Robinson↗Rahul Dodhia↗Lasha Otarashvili↗Jason Holmberg↗Kirk Larsen↗Howard Frederick↗Nathan J. Pamperin↗Pablo Arbel\'aez↗Juan M. Lavista Ferres↗…

Automated aerial wildlife surveys increasingly rely on deep learning, yet standard object detectors require bounding-box annotations, reported to be up to seven times slower and three times more expensive to produce than point-level labels. To address this bottleneck, we introduce the Overhead Wildlife Locator (OWL), a weakly supervised density-estimation framework with three variants: OWL-C, a fully convolutional model for high-throughput screening; OWL-T, a Swin-augmented hybrid for heterogeneous, cluttered scenes; and OWL-D, built on a frozen DINOv3 ViT-H+/16 encoder with a DPT-style fusion decoder. We benchmark all three against POLO, YOLOv11n, and YOLOv11l across five public aerial datasets, from sparse fixed-wing savanna surveys to dense UAV paddock imagery, and against the published HerdNet baseline on its native Delplanque split. OWL-D sets a new state of the art on Delplanque (0.934 AP vs. HerdNet's 0.840) and records the highest AP on four of the five datasets. Performance is regime-dependent: on the extreme-density SheepCounter UAV dataset the hybrid OWL-T leads (0.978 AP) and the convolutional variants attain the lowest counting error, whereas the foundation-based OWL-D degrades, indicating which variant suits which survey type. We further validate operational readiness on the Alaska Department of Fish and Game's 2022 Central Arctic Caribou census: under cross-herd and cross-temporal transfer, OWL-C fine-tuned on the 2017 Porcupine Caribou Herd split attains F1 = 0.965 on a held-out patch test set, with a signed count error of +3.1% aggregated across the released test patches. We release the OWL code, model weights, and the annotated Porcupine Caribou Herd 2017 (PCH) and Central Arctic Herd 2022 (CAH) patches, the first open patch-level datasets for large-scale caribou aerial surveys, at https://github.com/microsoft/MegaDetector-Overhead.

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20.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-11

Sharp log-Sobolev inequalities on finite cyclic groups

Authors:
Xinyuan Xie↗Haonan Zhang↗

arXiv:2606.02847v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Let $\mathbb Z_n$ be the cyclic group equipped with the uniform probability measure $\pi$, and let $A_{\psi_n}$ be the Laplacian with word length \[ \psi_n(k) = \min(k,n-k). \] We prove the sharp log-Sobolev inequality \[ Ent_{\pi}(f^2) \le 2\pi(f A_{\psi_n} f), \qquad f:\mathbb Z_n \to [0,\infty), \] for every $n \ge 4$. The proof is inspired by the recent work of Frank and Ivanisvili[FrankIvanisvili2026] on a sharp log-Sobolev inequality for nearest-neighbor simple random walk. We use their cubic-majorant reduction, which turns the problem into a 3rd moment estimate; the new point is a blockwise 3rd moment estimate adapted to the word-length multiplier. The same 3rd moment argument also recovers the log-Sobolev inequality for Poisson-semigroup on the circle, first proved by Weissler[Weissler1980]. The same sharp inequalities were also obtained recently by Yao[Yao2026] by a different method.

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21.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-11

An Introduction to the Foundations and Interpretations of Quantum Mechanics

Authors:
Theodore McKeever↗Ahsan Nazir↗

arXiv:2603.09818v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: This article surveys a selection of key conceptual and interpretational developments in quantum mechanics, tracing the theory from its foundational postulates to contemporary discussions of measurement, nonlocality, and the emergence of classicality. Beginning with the structure of Hilbert space and the postulates governing state evolution and measurement, the epistemic stance of the Copenhagen interpretation and its modern reformulations are examined. The Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen argument, Bell's theorem, and Hardy's paradox are then discussed as probes of locality and realism, alongside the deterministic but explicitly nonlocal de Broglie-Bohm theory. The measurement problem and the implications of contextuality are analyzed in relation to objective collapse models, which introduce new physical dynamics to account for definite outcomes. Finally, the role of decoherence in the suppression of interference and the emergence of classical behavior is explored, together with the interpretational frameworks of many-worlds and consistent histories. This material aims to provide a coherent introductory overview of how several of the most prominent interpretations address the central concern of what quantum mechanics tells us about the nature of physical reality.

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22.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

Controlled Comparison of Machine Learning Models for Fault Classification and Localization in Power System Protection

Authors:
Julian Oelhaf↗Georg Kordowich↗Changhun Kim↗Paula Andrea P\'erez-Toro↗Christian Bergler↗Andreas Maier↗Johann J\"ager↗Siming Bayer↗

arXiv:2510.00831v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: The increasing complexity of modern power systems, driven by the integration of inverter-based and distributed energy resources, challenges the reliability of conventional protection schemes and motivates the use of machine learning for protection tasks. However, published results are often difficult to compare because datasets, sensing assumptions, and decision horizons vary across studies. This paper presents a controlled comparison of machine learning models for fault classification (FC) and fault localization (FL) under identical sensing, timing, and validation conditions on a common electromagnetic transient dataset, using decision windows of 10-50 ms to reflect protection-relevant time scales. For FC, the best-performing nonlinear models achieve F1 scores above 0.98 already at 10 ms, while lower-capacity models degrade at shorter horizons but improve with longer windows, indicating that relevant fault-type information is already present in the earliest transient. For FL, the top-performing models reach a stable localization error of about 10 % of normalized line length across all evaluated horizons, while weaker models form a clearly separated second performance tier. Line-resolved analysis shows that localization accuracy varies across grid segments, indicating topology-dependent difficulty rather than insufficient temporal context alone. These findings provide a controlled reference for comparing machine learning models across two protection tasks with fundamentally different information requirements.

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23.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-11

MPK: A Compiler and Runtime for Mega-Kernelizing Tensor Programs

Authors:
Xinhao Cheng↗Zhihao Zhang↗Yu Zhou↗Jianan Ji↗Jinchen Jiang↗Zepeng Zhao↗Ziruo Xiao↗Zihao Ye↗Yingyi Huang↗Ruihang Lai↗Hongyi Jin↗Bohan Hou↗…

arXiv:2512.22219v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We introduce Mirage Persistent Kernel (MPK), the first compiler and runtime system that automatically transforms multi-GPU model inference into a single high-performance mega-kernel. MPK introduces an SM-level graph representation that captures data dependencies at the granularity of individual streaming multiprocessors (SMs), enabling cross-operator software pipelining, \rev{fine-grained overlap of computation and communication, and other optimizations that are infeasible under the conventional kernel-per-operator execution model}. The MPK compiler lowers tensor programs into optimized SM-level task graphs and generates fast CUDA implementations for each task, while the MPK in-kernel parallel runtime executes these tasks within a single persistent mega-kernel using decentralized scheduling across SMs. Together, these components provide end-to-end kernel fusion with minimal developer effort, while preserving the flexibility of existing programming models. Our evaluation shows that MPK significantly outperforms existing kernel-per-operator LLM serving systems, achieving up to 1.7$\times$ lower end-to-end inference latency and pushing LLM inference performance close to the limits of the underlying hardware. MPK is publicly available at https://github.com/mirage-project/mirage.

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24.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-19

Extremal representations of functions of matrices and applications to multivariate prediction

Authors:
Michael Frank↗Lutz Klotz↗Andreas Lasarow↗

arXiv:2606.19359v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Motivated by two seminal results of multivariate prediction theory by Helson and Lowdenslager and by Wiener and Masani we prove extremal representations of functions of matrices and derive their prediction-theoretic consequences. We also sketch a way to obtain matricial inequalities from our results. The main goal of the paper is the computation of the infimum of a set of values of the form $tr(A \Delta A^*)$, where $\Delta$ is a given non-negative Hermitian $n \times n$ matrix and the choices for $A$ exhauste a certain set of $n \times n$ matrices. In particular, we focus on norm-bounded unit spheres with certain types of properties of unitary invariance, what allows an application of the theory of majorization.

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25.
Nature (Science) 2026-06-10

Gene ancestries reveal diverse microbial associations during eukaryogenesis

Authors:
Moisès Bernabeu↗

The origin of eukaryotes remains a central enigma in biology1. Continuing debates agree on the pivotal role of a symbiosis between an alphaproteobacterium and an Asgard archaeon2,3. However, the nature, timing and contributions of other potential bacterial partners4–6 and the role of interactions with viruses7–9 remain contentious. To address these questions, we used advanced phylogenomic approaches and comprehensive datasets spanning the known diversity of cellular life and viruses. Our analysis provided a revised reconstruction of the last eukaryotic common ancestor (LECA) proteome, in which we traced the phylogenetic origin of each protein family. We found compelling evidence for multiple waves of horizontal gene transfer from diverse bacterial donors, with some likely to have preceded mitochondrial endosymbiosis. We inferred plausible traits of the major donors and their functional contributions to the LECA. Our findings support a contribution of horizontal gene transfers to shaping the proteomes of pre-LECA ancestors and suggest a facilitating role of Nucleocytoviricota viruses. Taken together, our results suggest that ancient eukaryotes may have originated within complex microbial ecosystems through a succession of diverse associations that left a footprint of horizontally transferred genes. Phylogenomic reconstruction of the proteome of the last eukaryotic common ancestor sheds light on the origin of eukaryotes, indicating an important role of horizontal transfer of genes from diverse bacterial and viral donors.

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