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01.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-18

Risk Stratification for ICU Delirium using Pervasive Ambient Sensing Information

arXiv:2606.19292v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Delirium is a common and serious complication in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU), associated with increased morbidity, prolonged hospital stays, and higher healthcare costs. Despite its prevalence, early prediction and prevention remain challenging. Environmental factors such as ambient sound and light may influence the onset of delirium, yet they are often overlooked in risk assessments. In this study, we examined whether light intensity and sound pressure levels can independently predict delirium across multiple prediction horizons. We evaluated four efficient sequential neural network models on data collected from 9 ICUs across 309 patients to predict delirium for 10 prediction-window sizes. We reported feature importance and direction of influence using Shapley Additive Explanations analysis. The convolutional model achieved the strongest discrimination, with AUC = 0.80 on sound data and on combined data. Sound features were the dominant predictors overall. Integrating sound with light improved short-term ($

02.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

TimeVista: Exploring and Exploiting Vision-Language Models as Judges for Time Series Forecasting

arXiv:2606.16173v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: High-quality time series forecasting is pivotal for real-world decision-making. However, traditional point-wise metrics often fail to reveal complex temporal patterns and align poorly with human intuitive preferences. While the ''LLM-as-a-Judge'' paradigm has revolutionized text evaluation by providing flexible, human-aligned judgment, its application to time series remains largely unexplored. In this paper, we leverage Vision-Language Models (VLMs) as judges for time series forecasting, harnessing their ability to comprehend time series plots grounded in textual information. Specifically, we propose a novel framework integrating micro- and macro-level judgments informed by contextual information to evaluate time series forecasting. To this end, we introduce TimeVista, a comprehensive VLM-as-a-Judge benchmark comprising 5563 time series samples paired with detailed evaluation rubrics. Extensive meta-evaluations demonstrate that VLMs are highly reliable judges, achieving significantly higher consistency with human preferences than conventional metrics. Building upon our benchmark, we comprehensively assess recent Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) under the VLM-as-a-Judge paradigm. Our results demonstrate that VLMs serve as robust and interpretable judges, providing a comprehensive, human-aligned standard for evaluating time series models.

03.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-11

I Understand How You Feel: Enhancing Deeper Emotional Support Through Multilingual Emotional Validation in Dialogue System

Emotional validation - explicitly acknowledging that a user's feelings make sense - has proven therapeutic value but has received little computational attention. Emotional validation in dialogue systems can be decomposed into (i) validating response identification, (ii) validation timing detection, and (iii) validating response generation. To support research on all three subtasks, we release M-EDESConv, a 120k English-Japanese multilingual corpus created through hybrid manual and automatic annotation, and M-TESC, a multilingual spoken-dialogue test set. For timing detection, we propose MEGUMI, a Multilingual Emotion-aware Gated Unit for Mutual Integration, that fuses frozen XLM-RoBERTa semantics with language-specific emotion encoders via cross-modal attention and gated fusion. MEGUMI shows superior performance on both the M-EDESConv and M-TESC datasets, both objectively and subjectively. Finally, our EmoValidBench benchmarks of GPT-4.1 Nano and Llama-3.1 8B indicate that current LLMs generate contextually similar and diverse validating responses, but emotional understanding remains a major area for improvement. Project page: https://github.com/zihaurpang/Multilingual-Emotional-Validation

04.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

LentiAvatar: Pseudo-Multiview Reconstruction and Subpixel Prism Rendering for Real-Time Stereoscopic Communication

Real-time stereoscopic video communication has long been a goal of immersive telepresence, yet practical systems still require specialized capture rigs or reduce remote users to a single portrait view. We present LentiAvatar, a Gaussian head-avatar system that connects monocular avatar capture with subpixel-encoded glasses-free lenticular display for real-time autostereoscopic communication. From a monocular portrait video, LentiAvatar reconstructs a controllable head avatar and optimizes it for the lateral viewing zones induced by the display. The method uses natural head turns as pseudo-multiview (PMV) supervision to constrain regions that are otherwise weakly observed in monocular training, including hair, ears, jaw contours, and neck boundaries. Reliable side frames are yaw-binned, aligned to virtual cameras, and supervised within a strict head-and-hair domain; contour-aware losses and staged regularization further suppress ghosting, alpha leakage, and depth instability while preserving lateral detail. At runtime, LentiAvatar renders 32 virtual views and encodes them into a 4K lenticular raster with calibrated subpixel-routing masks. The live-tracker prototype sustains 10.65 FPS, and a subject-specific distilled driver raises the same display pipeline to 38.49 FPS.

05.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-11

Trajectory Geometry of Transformer Representations Across Layers

arXiv:2606.09287v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Understanding how transformer representations evolve across layers, not merely what they encode, remains an open problem in mechanistic interpretability. We recast the transformer forward pass as a discrete population trajectory through a high-dimensional representation manifold, drawing on geometric tools from computational neuroscience. Rather than probing for pre-specified features, we characterize trajectory geometry using five metrics computed directly in the ambient space: trajectory length, curvature, a semantic convergence index, layerwise cosine similarity, and representational stability. Across three model families (GPT-2, TinyLlama, Qwen2.5) and five controlled prompt families, we report four findings. First, semantically related prompts converge significantly in middle-to-late layers (peak CI 0.41–0.58, p

06.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-18

MolmoMotion: Forecasting Point Trajectories in 3D with Language Instruction

Motion forecasting is central to visual intelligence: agents must anticipate how objects will move in order to plan actions, reason about physical interactions, and synthesize realistic futures. We argue that 3D points in world coordinates provide a general representation that is class-agnostic, view-stable, compact, and directly useful for downstream tasks. We formalize the task of goal-conditioned 3D point motion forecasting: given a short visual history, a set of 3D query points on an object of interest, and a language description of the intended goal, the model predicts the future 3D trajectory of each point. We introduce a full stack to study this task at scale: (1) MolmoMotion-1M is a large corpus of action-described, object-grounded 3D point trajectories annotated from 1.16M unconstrained videos; (2) PointMotionBench is a human-verified benchmark spanning 111 object categories and 61 motion types; and (3) MolmoMotion is a general motion forecasting model that supports both autoregressive coordinate prediction and flow-matching-based trajectory generation. MolmoMotion accurately predicts diverse motion patterns with different language instructions, and significantly outperforms existing motion prediction baselines on PointMotionBench. Finally, we show that the learned 3D motion prior transfers well to downstream applications: it improves training efficiency and generalization for robot manipulation, and its predicted trajectories provide effective motion guidance for generative models to synthesize videos with more realistic object motion.

07.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-11

Rule Taxonomy and Evolution in AI IDEs: A Mining and Survey Study

arXiv:2606.12231v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: The adoption of AI-powered Integrated Development Environments (AI IDEs) has introduced "Rules" as a novel software artifact, allowing developers to persistently inject project-specific constraints and architectural guidelines into the context of Large Language Models (LLMs). Despite their role in aligning AI behavior with developer intent, the taxonomy, evolution, and practical impact of these rules remain largely unexplored. To bridge this gap, we conducted a mixed-methods empirical study on AI IDE rules. By mining 83 open-source projects and extracting 7,310 rules, we established a comprehensive taxonomy comprising 5 primary and 25 secondary categories. We then triangulated these artifacts with survey responses from 99 practitioners. Our analysis identified a contrast between developer priorities and actual configurations: while practitioners rate architectural constraints as highly important, rule files in repositories primarily consist of low-level workflow and code formatting constraints. Furthermore, our analysis of 1,540 rule evolution events revealed that rules are updated frequently. Repository data further indicate that rule evolution is primarily driven by constructive context expansions (29.17%) and enrichments (26.59%). In contrast, surveyed developers reported modifying rules primarily to correct AI errors (77.78%), typically by adding new negative constraints rather than editing existing ones. Finally, an artifact compliance assessment of 160 rule evolution events revealed that updating rules significantly improves the adherence of software artifacts, with the average artifact compliance rate increasing by 22.99% (from 49.14% to 72.13%) following an update. Our study provides empirical insights that can help developers optimize prompting strategies and guide tool builders in designing automated conflict-detection and context-management mechanisms for AI IDEs.

08.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-17

Active Quantum Reservoir Engineering: Using a Qubit to Manipulate its Environment

arXiv:2505.16898v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Quantum reservoir engineering leverages dissipative processes to achieve desired behavior, with applications ranging from entanglement generation to quantum error correction. Therein, a structured environment acts as an entropy sink for the system and no time-dependent control over the system is required. We develop a theoretical framework for active reservoir engineering, where time-dependent control over a quantum system is used to manipulate its environment. In this case, the system may act as an entropy sink for the environment. Our framwork captures the dynamical interplay between system and environment, and provides an intuitive picture of how finite-size effects and system-environment correlations allow for manipulating the environment by repeated initialization of the quantum system. We illustrate our results with two examples: a superconducting qubit coupled to an environment of two-level systems and a semiconducting quantum dot coupled to nuclear spins. In both scenarios, we find qualitative agreement with previous experimental results, illustrating how active control can unlock new functionalities in open quantum systems.

09.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

Multi-Modal Spatio-Temporal Graph Neural Network with Mixture of Experts for Soil Organic Carbon Prediction

Top-soil organic carbon (SOC) prediction is fundamental to agricultural sustainability, land use policy and fertilization planning. Existing approaches face two limitations: they pair hand-crafted covariates with classical ML or single-modal deep models that miss rich spectral and temporal information, and grid-based architectures ignore the irregular spatial structure of field measurements. We introduce SpTGNN, a multi-modal spatio-temporal graph neural network addressing both. SpTGNN represents soil measurements as nodes in a heterogeneous graph with three edge types (spatial proximity, spectral similarity, elevation), and applies relational graph attention to learn separate patterns per relation. A fine-tuned TerraMind encoder extracts node features from Sentinel-2, Sentinel-1 and DEM signals, combined with per-sample environmental covariates and learned positional and temporal embeddings. A sparse Mixture-of-Experts module fuses the four streams via top-$k$ routing. Uncertainty is captured by pairing heteroscedastic regression (aleatoric) with deep ensembles (epistemic), and a Moran's $I$ penalty regularizes spatial autocorrelation. We evaluate on a global SOC corpus split into three regional instances ($\sim$49k samples globally, Africa $\sim$26k, Europe $\sim$14k). Our 5-member deep ensemble reports $R^2=0.762$, RMSE $=3.51\pm0.48$ g/kg and MAPE $=22.9\%$ on the Africa test split, improving over a tabular XGBoost baseline; the best single checkpoint reaches validation $R^2=0.864$. Ablations confirm the heterogeneous graph, MoE fusion and fine-tuned backbone each contribute substantively, and the ensemble UQ stack achieves post-calibration ECE of $0.031$ (hybrid) and $0.026$ ($\beta$-NLL). To our knowledge, this is the first framework to unify foundation-model feature extraction, heterogeneous graph attention and decomposed uncertainty quantification for SOC estimation.

10.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

MemBoost: A Memory-Boosted Framework for Cost-Aware LLM Inference

Large Language Models (LLMs) deliver strong performance but incur high inference cost in real-world services, especially under workloads with repeated or near-duplicate queries across users and sessions. In this work, we propose MemBoost, a memory-boosted LLM serving framework that enables a lightweight model to reuse previously generated answers and retrieve relevant supporting information for cheap inference, while selectively escalating difficult or uncertain queries to a stronger model. Unlike standard retrieval-augmented generation, which primarily grounds a single response, MemBoost is designed for interactive settings by supporting answer reuse, continual memory growth, and cost-aware routing. Experiments across multiple models under simulated workloads show that MemBoost substantially reduces expensive large-model invocations and overall inference cost, while maintaining high answer quality comparable to the strong model baseline.

11.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-15

Association of Genetic Liability to Psychiatric Disorders with Peripheral Metabolic Dysregulation

Importance: Individuals with psychiatric disorders face elevated cardiometabolic risk which is linked to increased mortality. The extent to which this reflects shared pathogenesis or the downstream effects of illness and treatment remains poorly understood. Objective: To characterize the direct pleiotropic effects of psychiatric genetic liability on circulating metabolites and aggregate cardiometabolic risk, independent of psychiatric diagnosis and psychotropic medication use. Design: Cohort study. Setting: Mass General Brigham Biobank (MGBB). Participants: MGBB participants with metabolomic profiling, genomic data, and linked electronic health records. Exposures: Genetic liability to nine psychiatric disorders quantified using polygenic risk scores (PRS): attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), anorexia nervosa (ANO), anxiety disorder (ANX), autism spectrum disorder (ASD), bipolar disorder (BD), major depressive disorder (MDD), PTSD, schizophrenia (SCZ), and substance use disorder (SUD). Main Outcomes and Measures: 249 circulating metabolites and four metabolomic risk scores (MRS) for type 2 diabetes, myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, and vascular dementia. PRS-metabolite associations were estimated using nested models adjusting for lifetime psychiatric diagnosis and psychotropic medication use. Results: Across 25,290 participants, we identified 604 significant PRS-metabolite associations (Bonferroni p< 1.36 x 10-4), of which 89% persisted after adjustment for lifetime diagnosis and medication use, suggesting that the direct genetic effects on metabolism are largely independent of illness or treatment. PRS for MDD, PTSD, and ADHD showed the most extensive dysregulation, with a transdiagnostic pattern of elevated lipids and systemic inflammation, specifically triglycerides ({beta} = 0.04 to 0.05, all p< 4.4 x10-13) and glycoprotein acetyls ({beta} = 0.05, all p< 2.2 x10-16). Notably, PRS for SCZ and BD showed minimal metabolite dysregulation despite having the strongest association with their target diagnoses. PRS for MDD, PTSD, ADHD, and SUD were associated with increased MRS across cardiometabolic conditions ({beta} = 0.03 to 0.08, all p< 2.1 x10-4). Sensitivity analyses controlling for BMI or excluding participants without any psychiatric history (N: 21,305 and 11,150, respectively) showed a similar pattern. Conclusions and Relevance: Psychiatric genetic liability is associated with systemic metabolic dysregulation independent of illness onset or treatment, supporting a partially pleiotropic basis for psychiatric-cardiometabolic comorbidity.

12.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

When Generator Replay Degrades: Projected Rehearsal Orchestration for Heterogeneous Federated Class-Incremental Learning

arXiv:2606.15695v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Federated class-incremental learning (FCIL) becomes substantially harder when clients observe different label subsets, progress through tasks at different stages, and provide uneven supervision for the same semantic concepts. Existing FCIL methods often preserve old knowledge through input-space synthesis, but they can be fragile under heterogeneous task streams and difficult to transfer across modalities. To alleviate such issues, we propose PRO, a framework that replaces synthetic input replay with projected rehearsal orchestration. To remove external pretraining, we evaluate all methods under the same warmup. After this, PRO maintains compact class-level projected memories on the server and allows clients perform balanced pseudo multi-task training over current examples and old projected memories. To handle stronger representation drift, we further introduce PRO-MAX, which augments PRO with neighborhood-weighted memory alignment while preserving the same server-light principle that the server only aggregates model updates and memory statistics. Across image, text, and graph benchmarks, PRO and PRO-MAX improve retention and final utility under heterogeneous streams while remaining competitive in homogeneous FCIL. Even when baselines are given expanded replay budgets, they degrade under supervision imbalance and stage misalignment, indicating that replay quantity alone does not resolve replay-quality failures. Additional weak-task diagnostics further show that larger replay mismatch is associated with larger downstream degradation, while our method keeps projected memories better aligned with the evolving representation.

14.
bioRxiv (Bioinfo) 2026-06-18

A unified smoothing framework for protein domain bigram model

Biomolecular sequences can be represented as strings over an alphabet, an analogy that has motivated many applications of computational linguistic techniques to biological problems. However, such methods must be adapted to the characteristic scale and organization of biomolecular data. Here, we consider the problem of bigram smoothing for multidomain protein architectures, where domain bigram frequency data is extremely sparse and differs from textual data in alphabet size, string length distribution, the relationship between bigram and unigram frequencies, tandem repeat lengths, and the distribution of domain adjacencies. Moreover, some domain combinations are unobserved because they are biologically incompatible, others because the data are incomplete. A smoothing method that distinguishes these two cases is required. We propose a unified smoothing framework based on interpolation that can be tuned to accommodate different bigram data characteristics. Within this framework, we design specific model variants suited to protein domain bigram data: these assign low adjusted counts to pairs that are likely incompatible, while making appropriate adjustments for undersampled pairs. We demonstrate empirically that this approach distinguishes the two cases while preserving the characteristic signatures of multidomain data.

15.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-11

Reinforcement Learning with Action-Triggered Observations

arXiv:2510.02149v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We introduce Action-Triggered Sporadically Traceable Markov Decision Processes (ATST-MDPs), a reinforcement learning framework for partial observability in which full state observations occur stochastically at each step, with probability determined by the chosen action. We derive Bellman equations tailored to this setting and establish the existence of an optimal policy. Exploiting the fact that sporadic observations reveal the full state, we provide an equivalent formulation in which agents commit to action-sequences between consecutive observations. Under the linear MDP assumption, we show that the value function over such action-sequences admits a linear representation in a finite-dimensional feature map, enabling standard regression-based methods. As an application, we derive ATST-LSVI-UCB, an optimistic algorithm achieving regret $\widetilde{O}(\sqrt{Kd^3(1-\gamma)^{-3}})$ for episodic learning with geometrically distributed horizons, where $K$ is the number of episodes, $d$ the feature dimension, and $\gamma$ the discount factor (episode continuation probability), matching the known rate for linear MDPs with full observability.

16.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

MAStrike: Shapley-Guided Collusive Red-Teaming on Multi-Agent Systems

arXiv:2606.12918v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Hierarchical multi-agent systems (MAS) are rapidly being deployed in high-stakes workflows across domains such as finance and software engineering. In these systems, safety and security are inherently distributed across role-specialized agents, significantly expanding the attack surface, particularly under coordinated adversarial behaviors such as privilege escalation and cross-agent collusion. Existing red-teaming approaches for MAS remain limited: they rely on heuristic selection of target agents and perturb isolated message streams, leaving critical questions unanswered as which agents are most responsible for system safety, and how compromised agents can coordinate to bypass defenses. We propose MAStrike, a closed-loop framework for collusive red-teaming in hierarchical MAS. We propose the first agent-level Shapley value analysis for MAS, quantifying each agent's marginal contribution to system robustness under task-specific distributions. GGuided by this attribution, MAStrike identifies vulnerable agent coalitions and generates coordinated, role-aware adversarial manipulations. These attacks are iteratively refined through structured causal diagnosis, attributing failure cases to uncompromised agents that block adversarial attempts. We further build a comprehensive MAS red-teaming benchmark and controllable environments spanning diverse hierarchical topologies and domains, including finance, software engineering, and CRM. Extensive experiments across MAS built on multiple frontier models show that MAStrike substantially outperforms heuristic baselines. Our analysis further uncovers non-trivial Shapley value distributions and higher-order interaction structures among agents, revealing critical vulnerabilities and coordination patterns that are overlooked by prior single-agent or template-based methods.

17.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-11

Annealed Entropic Allocation for Ranking and Selection

arXiv:2606.11347v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We propose Annealed Entropic Allocation, an annealed weighted soft-min framework for sequential budget allocation in ranking and selection. The central idea is to replace the non-smooth maximin large-deviation rate objective with a weighted log-sum-exp surrogate that aggregates challenger-specific pairwise scores through soft-min weights, mitigating hard switching when several challengers are nearly active. To improve finite-budget discrimination, we incorporate the saddlepoint approximation – a sub-exponential correction derived from refined pairwise tail asymptotics. Because these corrections are sub-exponential and the smoothing parameter is annealed to zero, the surrogate preserves the same first-order large-deviation target as the classical maximin formulation. We show that the surrogate converges uniformly to the hard minimum, that the soft-min weights concentrate on the active challengers, and that, under fixed weights, the induced target allocation map is continuous on the simplex interior. Numerical experiments on Gaussian and exponential instances demonstrate competitive performance, especially when multiple challengers are nearly tied.

18.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-17

AnchorKV: Safety-Aware KV Cache Compression via Soft Penalty with a Refusal Anchor

arXiv:2606.17872v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) outperform earlier architectures on generative inference and long-context tasks, but their large size introduces significant challenges in memory usage, energy cost, and on-device deployment. Since scaling pre-trained language models improves downstream capability [zhao2023survey], the key-value (KV) cache becomes a dominant inference bottleneck. Recent KV cache compression methods [jo2025fastkv,li2024snapkv,zhou2024dynamickv] reduce this cost by retaining only a subset of attention-relevant tokens. However, while these approaches preserve accuracy on benign workloads, their compression policies either fail to defend against jailbreak attacks [jiang2024robustkv] or degrade safety alignment under aggressive eviction. We propose AnchorKV, a drop-in modification to KV cache compression that biases token retention scores away from directions in key space associated with harmful prompts. AnchorKV constructs an offline safety anchor by adapting a difference-of-means representation engineering approach [arditi2024refusal,zou2023representation] to the layer-specific key projection space used in KV caching. Based on this anchor, a soft penalty token selection rule trades a small amount of utility for substantially improved safety alignment, while reducing to the original compressor when the penalty is zero.

19.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19

Federated Bilevel Performative Prediction

arXiv:2606.19734v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Federated bilevel optimization is widely used for nested learning problems across distributed clients, such as federated hyperparameter tuning and meta-learning under privacy and communication constraints. Most existing formulations assume fixed client data distributions, which can be violated by performativity, where deployed decisions reshape client behavior and data collection, inducing client-specific, decision-dependent distribution shift. We study federated bilevel performative prediction, where both upper-level (UL) and lower-level (LL) objectives are evaluated under client-dependent, decision-dependent distributions. We formalize the federated bilevel performatively stable (FBPS) point under a decoupled-risk perspective and provide sufficient conditions for its existence and uniqueness. We then develop two federated methods to compute the FBPS solution: FBi-RRM, which converges linearly under a contraction condition, and FBi-SGD, a communication-efficient stochastic method based on federated hypergradient estimation with convergence guarantees under diminishing step sizes when sensitivities are sufficiently small. Experiments on strategic regression and meta strategic classification validate the predicted stability thresholds and demonstrate improved meta-generalization over non-performative baselines, and CNN-based classification further demonstrates the practical effectiveness of the proposed methods in nonconvex neural network settings.

20.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-11

Quantum iterative approach to the Traveling Salesman Problem

arXiv:2606.11843v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The Traveling Salesman Problem (TSP) is a classical NP-hard problem in combinatorial optimization, where determining the shortest route among a set of cities becomes computationally prohibitive as the problem size increases. This work explores quantum computing as an alternative approach to address this complexity. Unlike existing methods that primarily rely on quantum annealing, we propose a quantum iterative framework integrating Quantum Phase Estimation (QPE) and Grover's search algorithm. Route costs are encoded as quantum phases, enabling QPE to efficiently evaluate them, while Amplitude Amplification, implemented via the Grover-Long algorithm, iteratively refines the solution space toward the optimal route. A proof-of-concept case study on a small-scale TSP instance demonstrates the feasibility of this approach and its potential for scaling to larger optimization problems. Furthermore, under an expectation-based analysis, the algorithm exhibits an expected computational complexity of $O(\frac{m^2\log_2(m)\log_2(1/\epsilon)}{\sqrt{\epsilon}})$ which depends on the error tolerance parameter $\epsilon$. This estimation omits the initialization term, which we expect future refinements to render subdominant to Phase Estimation.

21.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-11

SAGE: Answer-Conditioned Uncertainty Targets for Verbal Uncertainty Alignment

Large language models increasingly express uncertainty through natural-language statements, yet these expressions often fail to reflect the model's sampled behavior. We study verbal uncertainty alignment as a distributional calibration problem: the appropriate uncertainty target for a prompt should be estimated from repeated model outputs rather than from an isolated response. However, group rollouts alone are insufficient, since the resulting target must provide a useful training signal. Existing targets only partially satisfy this requirement. We propose SAGE, Semantic-Answer Guided Entropy, a group-level uncertainty target that constructs an answer-conditioned uncertainty geometry over sampled responses. SAGE preserves categorical, numeric, and symbolic answer distinctions while maintaining a smooth and scale-preserving calibration signal. We further apply this target through Group-Uncertainty Preference Optimization, or GUPO, an uncertainty-channel training framework that supervises verbal uncertainty expressions rather than the full response. Experiments across factual, mathematical, and multiple-choice reasoning tasks show improved uncertainty ranking, lower calibration error, and reduced overconfidence.

22.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-15

ECHOCARDIOGRAPHY ABNORMALITIES IN PREECLAMPSIA WITH SEVERE FEATURES.

Purpose To determine the frequency of echocardiographic abnormalities in women with preeclampsia with severe features. To describe the spectrum and types of echocardiographic abnormalities associated with preeclampsia with severe features. Method This is a Prospective observational study conducted in Vani Vilas hospital attached to Bangalore Medical College and Research Institute, Bangalore from January 2023 to December 2025. 560 pregnant women diagnosed with severe preeclampsia(SPE) were included in the study. Chronic hypertension without superimposed preeclampsia, underlying cardiac diseases and previous history of peripartum cardiomyopathy were excluded from the study. Transthoracic echocardiography-TTE (2D ECHO) was done to evaluate cardiac structure and function. Echocardiographic abnormalities identified during the study were documented and analysed using descriptive statistical methods. Results Abnormalities in ECHO was noted in 23.03%. A unique finding was the documentation of elevated pulmonary artery systolic pressures (PASP) suggestive of Pulmonary Hypertension (PH) (PASP >35 mm HG) among 20.25% of the participants. It was also the commonest abnormality on ECHO. Mild PH was the commonest (15.71%), moderate PH was seen in 3.92% and severe PH in 0.71% of cases. Next most frequent abnormality was moderate to severe valvular regurgitation (10%), followed by left ventricular hypertrophy (5.53%). Diastolic dysfunction (DD) was seen in 3.92%, systolic dysfunction(SD) in 3.57%, chamber dilatation in 3.57% and LV global hypokinesia in 3.03% cases of SPE Conclusion Preeclampsia with severe features (SPE) is associated with 23.03% abnormalities on echocardiography. SPE is associated with systolic dysfunction, diastolic dysfunction, chamber dilatation, valvular regurgitation, left ventricular hypertrophy and pulmonary hypertension.

23.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

Thermodynamic Measure of Intelligence

arXiv:2606.20231v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Can intelligence be measured? We propose that intelligence can be defined as the lawful amplification of rare but valid futures: a system increases the probability of outcomes that would be unlikely under passive dynamics but remain admissible under the constraints of the domain. We start with the premise that an intelligent system must model the world and its own place within it. Because the system is part of the world it models, this leads naturally to recursive self-simulation: the system represents futures in which its own actions are part of the trajectory. Our central results give a necessity statement and a conditional near-sufficiency statement connecting this architecture to a precise thermodynamic measure of lawful amplification of rare-valid futures: high rare-valid lift is impossible unless the internal simulation identifies rare-valid futures with high fidelity; conversely, when rare-valid fidelity is high and the simulation contains an effective policy, the achievable lift approaches the actuation-limited optimum. Thus recursive self-simulation is not merely a plausible feature of intelligence but, under the stated assumptions, is necessary and nearly sufficient for high thermodynamic intelligence. The resulting framework makes intelligence measurable on a universal scale, from passive matter and feedback controllers, large language models, and humans as text generators to Maxwell-demon-like information engines.

24.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-18

A Hybrid LSTM–Vision Transformer Architecture for Predicting HRRR Forecast Errors

arXiv:2606.19026v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Forecast errors in high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems are often linked to unresolved planetary boundary layer (PBL) processes, convection, terrain-induced circulations, and other vertically structured atmospheric phenomena. Previous work demonstrated that Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks can successfully predict forecast errors in the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model using mesonet observations, but we believe performance degradation is linked to periods of complex vertical atmospheric evolution. To address this limitation, we develop a hybrid LSTM-Vision Transformer (LSTM-ViT) framework that combines temporal sequence learning from surface observations with atmospheric profiles from the New York State Mesonet profiler network. The LSTM-ViT framework is trained to predict HRRR hourly precipitation, 10 m wind speed, and 2 m temperature forecast errors at individual mesonet stations. Across all three predictors, incorporation of profiler-derived atmospheric structure improves forecast error prediction skill relative to the baseline LSTM architecture, with the largest gains occurring at shorter forecast lead times and during periods of enhanced PBL activity. Improvements are particularly pronounced for precipitation forecast error, where the LSTM-ViT framework achieves approximately a twofold increase in predictive skill relative to the baseline LSTM while better capturing convectively driven error evolution and reducing degradation associated with PBL processes. These results demonstrate that combining temporal sequence learning with vertically informed attention mechanisms provides a physically meaningful pathway for improving forecast error prediction in operational NWP systems. Our research offers forecasters enhanced guidance regarding model bias and forecast confidence.

25.
bioRxiv (Bioinfo) 2026-06-12

CAREPath: Semantic Context-Aware Reasoning Paths with Mechanism-Augmented Embeddings for Drug Repurposing

Biomedical knowledge graphs (BKGs) that include drugs, genes, and diseases support drug repurposing by connecting drugs to diseases through gene-mediated multi-hop paths, thereby enabling mechanism-of-action reasoning. However, deeper traversal does not necessarily improve mechanistic reasoning: long paths grow combinatorially and frequently pass through hub genes, producing irrelevant gene regulatory signals, whereas overly constrained or sparse paths may miss broader biological context. We propose CAREPath, a KG-LLM framework inspired by depth-first search (DFS)-like and breadth-first search (BFS)-like reasoning to balance mechanistic specificity, scalability, and context recovery. The DFS-like module constrains traversal to short disease-gene-drug paths, converts each path into a structured prompt, and encodes it with a biomedical language model to generate semantic path embeddings. Complementarily, the BFS-like module constructs entity-level mechanism-context embeddings from one-hop gene neighborhoods and enriches them through similarity-guided augmentation using pharmacologically related drugs and gene-signature-similar diseases. Across five biomedical KGs, CAREPath achieves the best overall AUPRC among 18 baselines, improving performance by up to 3.8%. Additional analyses show that semantic short-path encoding contributes most to performance, while mechanism-context augmentation improves robustness under sparse evidence and strengthens Gene Ontology functional agreement. Case studies and recently FDAapproved indications further demonstrate its practical relevance, positioning CAREPath as an interpretable framework for scalable and mechanism-aware drug repurposing. Source code is available at https://github.com/hamppy-song/CAREPath.