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01.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-11

A Geometric Profile of Semantic Information in Text: Frame-Conditional Uniqueness and a Trade-Off Triangle for Scalar Summaries

How much meaning does a text carry? Shannon's theory measures uncertainty over symbols and is intentionally indifferent to meaning, while pairwise metrics such as BERTScore compare two texts rather than characterizing one. We develop a geometric framework that measures semantic content from the structure of a text's sentence embeddings. The framework has three parts. First, within a fixed embedding and baseline, six natural axioms uniquely determine a scalar measure up to scale, a frame-conditional uniqueness theorem. The resulting scalar is empirically too coarse, motivating a richer representation. Second, we propose a three-coordinate semantic profile capturing novelty (displacement from generic discourse), breadth (diversity of distinct ideas), and integration (connectedness among them), together with a discrete minimal unit (the semantic quantum) whose resolution is fixed by a clustering threshold $\tau$. Third, we prove a no-go theorem: no scalar summary of the profile can simultaneously satisfy analytic stability under paraphrase and concatenation, ordinal robustness across text scales, and cross-representation comparability. We exhibit two practical scalars, $S_{\mathrm{minmax}}$ and $S_{\mathrm{rank}}$, each occupying a distinct corner of this trade-off triangle. Validation across 23 synthetic categories, 5 Project Gutenberg novels, and 3 embedding models confirms the trade-off. The recommended rank-normalized configuration passes 25 of 28 ordinal checks as point estimates (21 of 28 after Benjamini-Hochberg correction), outperforming seven baselines including unigram entropy and a BERTScore-based novelty signal. A separate variational result connects the breadth coordinate to the log-determinant of a determinantal point process (Spearman $\rho = 0.985$ over 507 Gutenberg chapters), giving an optimization-theoretic foundation for breadth.

02.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-15

Sorries Are Not the Hard Part: An Expert-Review Case Study of a Semi-Autonomous Formalization

arXiv:2606.13925v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large language models can often close proof gaps in interactive theorem provers, but a verified theorem is not the same thing as a reusable library contribution. We study this distinction through a detailed case study: a semi-autonomous formalization of Grothendieck's vanishing theorem. The initial version compiles with no sorries, but an expert review found serious problems in definitions, theorem generality, file organization, and the API. We then ran a review-driven refactor and compression process and obtained a second expert review. The before-and-after comparison shows a sharp split: agents adapted well to local, mechanically checkable feedback, but remained weak at choosing definitions and designing APIs. We argue that autoformalization should be evaluated not only by closed sorries, but by whether the resulting formalization survives expert review.

03.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-24

MuTRAP: Multi-trigger Trojans Attacking Robot Task Planning Systems

arXiv:2504.17070v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Robots need task planning methods to achieve goals that require more than one action. Recently, large pretrained models have demonstrated impressive performance in task planning. For instance, large language models (LLMs) can generate task plans using action and goal descriptions. Despite the rapid progress of large models in robot intelligence, their security implications remain only partially understood, leaving important gaps in the exploration of potential vulnerabilities in LLM-driven robotic planning systems. To investigate such risks, in this paper, we develop MuTRAP, the first multi-trigger trojan attack specifically designed and targeted for LLM-assisted robot task planners. MuTRAP follows the standard practice of LLM usage in robotics where the backbone LLM is typically frozen and hosted in a central server limiting attacker's reach. In contrast, MuTRAP injects backdoor using a small set of task-specific parameters. In addition, we develop a trigger optimization method for selecting multiple-trigger words that are most effective for different robot applications. For instance, one can use unique trigger word "herical" to activate a specific malicious behavior, e.g., cutting hand on a kitchen robot. Through MuTRAP that demonstrates the vulnerability of current LLM-based planners, our goal is to promote the development of secured robot intelligence. Details and demos are provided in: https://mutrap.github.io/MuTRAP/

04.
PLOS Medicine 2026-06-04

Comparative impacts and cost-effectiveness of tuberculosis systematic screening strategies in prisons in Brazil, Colombia, and Peru: A mathematical modeling study

Authors:

by Yiran E. Liu, José Victor Bortolotto Bampi, Ronan F. Arthur, Argita D. Salindri, Caroline Busatto, Pedro Avedillo Jiménez, Daniele Maria Pelissari, Fernanda Dockhorn Costa Johansen, Robert Arana-Narvaez, Alvaro Fernando Moreno Roca, Wilfredo Santos Solís Tupes, Esther Mori Jiu, Christian Alfredo Moreno Roca, Erika Albertina Abregú Contreras, Valentina Antonieta Alarcón Guizado, Julián Trujillo Trujillo, Belkys Marcelino, Mónica Alonso Gonzalez, Mayra Cecilia Córdova Ayllon, Ted Cohen, Moises A. Huaman, Jeremy D. Goldhaber-Fiebert, Julio Croda, Jason R. Andrews Background Incarceration is a leading driver of tuberculosis in Latin America. Systematic screening in prisons may reduce tuberculosis burden, but optimal strategies and cost-effectiveness remain uncertain. We examined the population-wide health impacts and cost-effectiveness of systematic screening in prisons in Brazil, Colombia, and Peru, comparing different timepoints, frequencies, and screening algorithms. Methods and findings Using dynamic transmission models calibrated to Brazil, Colombia, and Peru, we simulated annual or biannual (twice-yearly) prison-wide screening, alone or combined with entry and exit screening from 2026 to 2035. We evaluated four algorithms: (1) symptom screening, (2) chest X-ray with computer-aided detection (CXR-CAD), (3) symptoms and CXR-CAD (follow-up testing if either is positive), and (4) GeneXpert Ultra (Xpert) with pooled sputum. Individuals screening positive then received individual Xpert. We projected impacts on within-prison and population-level tuberculosis incidence in 2035, along with discounted costs (2023 US dollars) and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Model projections showed that combined entry, exit, and biannual screening with CXR-CAD was highly impactful and cost-effective across countries, reducing tuberculosis incidence by 61%–87% in prisons and 18%–28% population-wide. Compared to only biannual CXR-CAD (the next best strategy), the incremental cost per DALY averted of adding entry and exit screening was $2,984 (Brazil), $2,925 (Colombia), and $645 (Peru). Adding symptom screening to CXR-CAD marginally increased benefit and was only cost-effective in Peru’s higher-incidence prisons. Biannual screening alone remained cost-effective at prison incidence levels well below national averages, as well as at far lower willingness-to-pay thresholds. In settings without CXR-CAD, pooled Xpert was an impactful, cost-effective alternative. Key limitations include the model’s simplified representation of tuberculosis disease states and lack of stratification by age, gender/sex, HIV, or drug resistance. Conclusions These modeling results support immediate national-level adoption of prison-wide tuberculosis screening twice-yearly and at entry and exit, using CXR-CAD or pooled Xpert.

05.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-11

Re-evaluating Confidence Remasking in Masked Diffusion Language Models

arXiv:2606.12232v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Masked diffusion language models (dLLMs) have recently emerged as a competitive alternative to autoregressive language models, with the promise of faster inference via parallel token generation. A notable limitation of the masked formulation, however, is that once a token has been unmasked it can no longer be revised, leaving dLLMs vulnerable to early sampling mistakes. To address this, a growing body of work has sought to extend masked dLLMs with self-correcting (remasking) capabilities. One appealing subset of these methods does so in a training-free, post-hoc manner based on token confidences, with encouraging early reported results. In this work, we revisit the empirical evaluation of a representative post-hoc remasking method, WINO [Hong et al., 2026], and find that under standard decoding settings (shorter block lengths) it brings little-to-no benefit over confidence-based unmasking alone [Wu et al., 2025]. Extending the evaluation to non-greedy decoding, we find that while confidence-based remasking can mitigate errors introduced by increased stochasticity to some extent, it also exacerbates the diversity collapse previously reported for confidence-based unmasking. Overall, our results show that the benefits of post-hoc confidence-based remasking are highly setting-dependent, underscoring the need for a more comprehensive evaluation framework.

07.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-15

VeriGeo: Controllable Geometry Question Generation with Numerical and Analytical Verification

arXiv:2606.14176v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Geometry problem generation is useful for AI-assisted education and multimodal mathematical reasoning, but reliable synthesis remains difficult because the problem statement, diagram, constraints, and solution should be mutually consistent. Existing methods often trade off controllability and reliability: seed-based rewriting is flexible but weakly verifiable, whereas diagram-first construction improves validity but is less suited to arbitrary user-specified constraints. We introduce VeriGeo, a controllable geometry generation framework grounded in executable reasoning traces. Given user constraints such as target concepts and difficulty, an Author agent generates a problem and diagram, and a Solver agent produces a proof-aligned solution. Both agents use a shared action sequence that connects natural language, diagrams, geometric constraints, and proof steps into a verifiable representation. A three-stage pipeline checks numerical consistency, analytical realizability, and global consistency, using verification-guided reflection to repair recoverable failures and reject unrecoverable ones. Across five LLM backbones, raw generations frequently fail these checks, while VeriGeo repairs a substantial fraction of the invalid attempts. Supervised fine-tuning on 8.7k examples generated by VeriGeo achieves the best reported GeoQA performance among end-to-end multimodal LLM-based solvers, and obtains strong results on PGPS9K and MathVista-GPS, demonstrating the effectiveness of verified synthetic data for improving multimodal geometry reasoning.

08.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-25

Knowledge Cascade: Reverse Knowledge Distillation on Nonparametric Multivariate Functional Estimation

arXiv:2606.25927v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: As machine learning models and datasets continue to grow, developing complex models has become increasingly computationally demanding. Knowledge distillation reduces deployment cost by compressing a large, well-trained teacher model into a compact student model, but it does not address settings where constructing the teacher itself is the bottleneck. Motivated by this challenge, we introduce Knowledge Cascade (KCas), a reverse knowledge distillation framework that uses information from a small, inexpensive student model to guide the development of a more complex teacher model. Although this direction is counterintuitive because the teacher typically has greater representational capacity, we show that student-to-teacher transfer can be principled when supported by statistical scaling relationships. We first develop KCas for nonparametric multivariate functional estimation in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces via smoothing splines, where selecting multiple smoothing parameters is a major computational bottleneck. KCas transfers student-selected smoothing parameters to the full-sample regime through asymptotic scaling laws, substantially reducing computational cost for high-dimensional and large-scale datasets while retaining theoretical guarantees. Beyond smoothing splines, we illustrate the same principle through kernel density estimation and deep learning hyperparameter transfer. Simulations and real-data experiments show that KCas achieves substantial computational savings while maintaining strong statistical performance, and can sometimes outperform the corresponding full-sample procedure.

09.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-25

Do Prompt-Elicited Trajectories Reflect Training-Time Reward Hacking? A Systematic Study on Monitoring Trainig-Time Reward Hacking in Code Generation

arXiv:2604.23488v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Reward hacking in code generation, where models exploit evaluation loopholes to obtain high reward without correctly solving the intended task, poses a critical challenge for Reinforcement Learning (RL) and the deployment of reasoning models. Existing studies often rely on explicitly prompted hacking trajectories, but it remains unclear whether monitors trained on such data can detect reward hacks that arise without direct hacking instructions during RL training. In this work, we introduce Trace-and-Amplify, a framework for scalable curation of reward-hacking trajectories that arise during RL training without explicit hacking instructions. The framework uses unit-test tracers to identify hacking solutions when they occur and retains such trajectories for monitor training and evaluation. Through controlled comparisons between monitors trained on prompt-elicited hacking trajectories and training-time reward-hacking trajectories collected by Trace-and-Amplify, we find that (1) prompt-elicited-data-trained monitors often fail to generalize to trajectories curated by our framework, and (2) monitors trained on our Trace-and-Amplify trajectories demonstrate stronger generalizability to unseen hacking types. Our results indicate that prompted reward hacking data may not fully reflect training-time reward-hacking behaviors, and that relying solely on these data can lead to misleading conclusions. Codebase is available at https://github.com/LichenLillc/CoTMonitoring.git

10.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-11

RedAct: Redacting Agent Capability Traces for Procedural Skill Protection

Users rely on execution traces to observe agent behavior, diagnose failures, and ensure accountability. These traces contain rich procedural detail, including tool invocations, intermediate decisions, and error-recovery logic. Yet this detail can expose private procedural skills, allowing downstream methods to recover key formulas, thresholds, and strategies without access to model weights or skill files. To quantify this risk and evaluate protection, we construct \textsc{CapTraceBench}, a benchmark of 75 specialized long-horizon tasks and 154 curated skills across seven domains. We also introduce \textsc{RedAct} https://github.com/XuShuwenn/RedAct, a protected trace release framework that localizes protected key information, rewrites traces while preserving verifier-critical evidence, and embeds behavioral watermarks for downstream provenance analysis. Across representative trace reuse methods, \textsc{RedAct} reduces normalized skill transfer (NST) from 44.7–67.1\% on raw traces to below the no-skill baseline, while preserving audit evidence. Its standalone behavioral watermarks reach 93.6–100.0\% true detection with a false alarm rate of at most 1.9\%. These results frame public agent traces as security interfaces and show that selective redaction can reduce procedural capability leakage without removing audit evidence.

11.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-24

Abstractions of Queries in Ontology-Based Data Access

arXiv:2606.24618v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In ontology-based data access (OBDA), multiple data sources are integrated via mappings to an ontology. We consider an OBDA setting based on existential rules and the certain answer semantics. We address the recent issue of query abstraction, which consists of abstracting data queries by translating them to the ontology layer. Since a perfect abstraction may not exist, the notions of minimally complete and maximally sound abstractions have been introduced. We study abstractions within an extension of UCQs with a limited form of inequality and a special predicate marking database constants. While this extension does not lead to an increased complexity of the problems of interest, it is able to express minimally complete abstractions, hence perfect abstractions when they exist. We also characterize maximally sound abstractions by making a new connection with the notion of maximum recovery stemming from data exchange.

12.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-24

Sakana Fugu Technical Report

arXiv:2606.21228v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: The capabilities of frontier Large Language Models (LLMs) continue to advance, with different providers increasingly specializing in distinct domains. This raises a natural next objective: how to combine the individual specializations of various LLMs into a collectively intelligent system. To this end, we report the development of Sakana Fugu, a family of orchestrator models that harness and amplify the capabilities of an LLM agent team. Fugu models are themselves language models trained to understand user queries and dynamically devise agentic scaffolds to solve them. Through these adaptive scaffolds, Fugu accesses performance beyond any individual LLM agent, achieving state-of-the-art results compared to other publicly accessible models across a range of challenging tasks, including SWE-Bench Pro, Terminal Bench, LiveCodeBench, GPQA-Diamond, Humanity's Last Exam, and CharXiv Reasoning. We release two models: Fugu, which balances performance with latency for everyday use, and Fugu-Ultra, which prioritizes answer quality on the hardest problems. We describe our training paradigm, which encompasses large-scale fine-tuning, evolutionary algorithms, and reinforcement learning approaches, along with the infrastructure and core design principles that turn these methods into a production system. We hope this report encourages further research into multi-agent systems and dynamic, query-adaptive agentic scaffolds as a path toward the next frontier of AI capabilities, accessed through collective intelligence.

13.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-17

Functional Equivalence in Attention: A Comprehensive Study with Applications to Linear Mode Connectivity

arXiv:2606.17830v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Neural network parameter spaces are inherently non-injective, as distinct parameter configurations can realize identical functions through functional equivalence. While this symmetry is well understood in classical fully connected and convolutional models, it becomes substantially more intricate in modern attention-based architectures. Existing analyses of multihead attention have largely focused on the vanilla formulation, overlooking positional encodings that fundamentally reshape architectural symmetries. In this work, we provide a formal study of functional equivalence in Transformers with positional encodings. Focusing on the two most widely used variants–sinusoidal and rotary positional encodings (RoPE)–we show that sinusoidal encodings preserve the equivalence structure of vanilla attention, whereas rotary encodings significantly reduce the symmetry group, thereby enhancing expressivity. This offers a principled explanation for the growing prominence of RoPE in practice. We further examine how positional encodings affect linear mode connectivity, and through an alignment algorithm, empirically demonstrate that the presence and variability of connectivity across Transformer settings crucially depend on the positional encoding.

14.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-24

From Open Waters to Enclosed Cabins: ProteusVPR for Cross-Scene Visual Place Recognition in Maritime Perception and Cabin Inspection

Autonomous robotic inspection in maritime environments presents unique challenges for Visual Place Recognition (VPR) due to cross-scene perceptual shifts. Robots navigating ship-borne environments must transition between visually distinct domains: open decks with sparse textures and severe illumination changes, and enclosed cabins with repetitive structures and high visual ambiguity. Existing VPR methods, designed primarily for urban or indoor scenes, fail to generalize reliably across these starkly different scenarios. To address this, we propose ProteusVPR, a two-stage retrieval-refinement framework. The first stage employs any standard VPR model for initial image retrieval. The second stage introduces a geometric-visual estimation network that fuses the retrieved image with two temporally preceding frames, incorporating geometric descriptors, a local affine coordinate system, and camera azimuth encoding to achieve precise localization. To support this task, we introduce the XHZ dataset, an 8K-panoramic ship-borne dataset collected from an operational vessel, featuring multi-floor cabin structures, deck transition zones, and strict query-database separation for rigorous evaluation. Extensive experiments on the XHZ dataset demonstrate that ProteusVPR consistently improves the localization accuracy across multiple VPR backbones, reducing mean localization error by over 60\% on average and that ProteusVPR offers an effective and robust solution for precise visual localization in challenging, cross-scene maritime environments.

15.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-25

Learning Optimization Proxies for Sequential Contextual Stochastic Programs: An Order Fulfillment Application

arXiv:2606.25362v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Sequential contextual stochastic programs model real-time decision systems in which each time epoch commits to an action under uncertainty whose consequences propagate into future decisions. In many practical contexts, these programs require obtaining solutions rapidly as new information becomes available. These problems can be represented through scenario approximations to be solved by off-the-shelf optimization solvers, which achieve high decision quality offline but typically run in seconds to minutes per instance, falling short of the sub-second responses that peak periods of planning require. This paper develops a learning-based optimization proxy: a scenario-embedded neural network trained offline on solver-generated labels, paired online with a decoder that enforces feasibility, replacing the per-epoch solve with a single forward pass. The framework is specialized to omnichannel order fulfillment, where each arriving order requires a sub-second assignment of products to distribution centers and carrier services under stochastic delivery times and future demand. A two-stage contextual stochastic program is introduced to formulate this problem, and its contextual sample average approximation (C-SAA) supplies the offline labels, while a composite training loss combines label imitation, a constraint-violation penalty, and self-supervised cost alignment. In a calibrated simulator built from JD.com transactional records, a detailed computational study is provided. The proxy reduces decision latency by roughly 2800x relative to the online finite-sample C-SAA reference and improves over it by 3.3% in realized fulfillment cost. Relative to established fulfillment policies, the proxy lowers total realized cost by at least 10.7% and roughly halves the late-delivery rate.

16.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-25

Position: Reasoning After Perception Means Reasoning Without Vision

A common belief in multimodal research is that the perceptual weaknesses of vision–language models can be compensated by stronger language reasoning (e.g., chain-of-thought, in-context learning, or external tools). We challenge this assumption. We argue that for a broad class of visual tasks hard to specify in language, failures stem from a structural fatality where the temporal decision of when to reason strictly dictates the spatial constraint of where reasoning takes place. When visual reasoning is deferred to language generation, current architectures do not merely delay computation; they displace it from the continuous visual representation to a discrete textual space. Consequently, the sequential ``Perception-then-Reasoning'' paradigm degenerates perception into a passive, one-off feature encoding process, rendering it functionally equivalent to ``Reasoning-in-Text-Space'', where task-critical spatial signals are collapsed before reasoning begins. We substantiate this claim with the Turing Eye Test (TET): tasks that must be resolved in visual space and are hard to verbalize; results show text-only reasoning cannot remedy these perceptual failures. Our findings suggest rethinking the architectural divide: shifting from reasoning about perception to reasoning within perception. This facilitates actively reasoning-driven perception that operates directly on pixel-level visual representations, rather than within a collapsed textual space.

17.
PLOS Computational Biology 2026-06-11

A zero-parameter first-principles gate framework for full-length TP53 missense variant interpretation

by Masamichi Iizumi Missense variant interpretation often achieves useful predictive performance but remains mechanistically opaque, particularly in proteins that combine structured domains with intrinsically disordered regions (IDRs). We developed Gate & Channel, a zero-parameter, first-principles framework for full-length TP53 missense variant analysis in which each prediction is generated by explicit IF-THEN gates derived from physicochemistry, geometry, structural constraints, and polymer physics rather than fitted weights. Variants are evaluated across independent channels representing distinct physical failure modes; a variant is predicted disruptive if any gate closes. A second hierarchical layer (“Geta”) encodes physically grounded post-closure exceptions, allowing sensitivity and specificity to be improved on disjoint variant populations. The v18 framework consists of 12 channels and 2 Getas spanning structured domains and IDRs, capturing DNA-contact disruption, Zn coordination, burial-dependent packing, secondary-structure compatibility, post-translational modification chemistry, short linear motif disruption (including a multi-partner coupled-folding face), proline-directed kinase recognition, and IDR-specific proline and glycine backbone constraints. Across 1,369 TP53 missense variants, the framework achieved 84.5% sensitivity and 89.1% positive predictive value, with 90.9% sensitivity preserved in the DNA-binding core and all 9/9 hotspot mutations captured. A post hoc audit of discordant IDR calls indicated that many apparent false positives had plausible molecular rationales, consistent with a distinction between molecular mechanism disruption and clinical penetrance. Applied to KRAS, TDP-43, and BRCA1, the same channels capture the dominant pathogenic mechanisms in each protein as a proof of principle, while residual missed variants name specific gates yet to be written. The framework is distributed as the open-source Python package pathogenicity-gates (v0.5.1, MIT). These results show that a substantial fraction of full-length TP53 missense variation can be resolved through explicit, auditable physical gates that carry meaning beyond TP53, with each remaining failure naming the next rule to be written.

18.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-25

CoGeoAD: Hierarchical Color-Geometric Fusion with Multi-View Attention for Zero-Shot 3D Anomaly Detection

Zero-shot 3D anomaly detection is essential for industrial quality inspection, where labeled anomaly samples are scarce. Meanwhile, existing methods lack an effective mechanism to fuse complementary 2D color images with 3D geometric structures, limiting their ability to detect both surface and structural defects in a unified framework. To address these issues, we propose CoGeoAD, a unified CLIP-based framework that fuses color and geometric features by constructing pixel-aligned paired multi-view images. The framework introduces a Data-Driven Multi-View Attention (MVA) mechanism to adaptively aggregate 3D features and a Multi-Stage Color-Geometric Fusion (MS-CGF) module to hierarchically integrate multi-level features from both modalities. Extensive experiments on the MVTec3D-AD and Eyecandies benchmarks demonstrate that CoGeoAD achieves state-of-the-art performance, effectively capturing both structural and textural anomalies in complex industrial scenarios. our source code is available at https://github.com/kingdomShu/CoGeoAD.

20.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-11

LSTM-Based Detection of Structural Breaks in Property Insurance Loss Reserving: A Climate-Informed Approach

arXiv:2606.11463v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Accurate loss reserving is foundational to insurer solvency, yet accelerating climate driven catastrophes systematically violate the stability assumptions on which traditional actuarial methods depend. This white paper presents a research program testing whether Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks can detect and adapt to these structural breaks faster and more accurately than Chain Ladder, Bornhuetter Ferguson, and Cape Cod methods. Using 15 plus years of regulatory development triangle data from Florida and Louisiana, enriched with NOAA hurricane intensity indices and sea surface temperatures, we hypothesize a targeted improvement of 15, 20% in reserve accuracy for catastrophe exposed years, a threshold grounded both in the prior neural network reserving literature and in the formal convergence results developed here. Beyond empirical validation, we develop a theoretical framework grounding LSTM structural break detection in probabilistic terms, providing formal performance guarantees that compensate for the limited number of catastrophe events in the test period. We document the research design, methodology, expected contributions, and a candid assessment of limitations.

21.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

CLAD: Constrained Latent Action Diffusion for Vision-Language Procedure Planning

We propose CLAD, a Constrained Latent Action Diffusion model for vision-language procedure planning in instructional videos. Procedure planning is the challenging task of predicting intermediate actions given a visual observation of a start and a goal state. However, future interactive AI systems must also be able to plan procedures using multi-modal input, e.g., where visual observations are augmented with language descriptions. To tackle this vision-language procedure planning task, our method uses a Variational Autoencoder (VAE) to learn the latent representation of actions and observations as constraints and integrate them into the diffusion process. This approach exploits that the latent space of diffusion models already has semantics that can be used. We use the latent constraints to steer the diffusion model to better generate actions. We report extensive experiments on the popular CrossTask, Coin, and NIV datasets and show that our method outperforms state-of-the-art methods by a large margin. By evaluating ablated versions of our method, we further show that the proposed integration of the action and observation representations learnt in the VAE latent space is key to these performance improvements.

22.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-24

Structural ethnic inequities in maternal mortality between Indigenous and non-Indigenous women in Paraguay, 2014-2023: a national analysis of territorial, institutional, and preventable factors.

Background: Indigenous women in Paraguay continue to experience disproportionately high maternal mortality despite national efforts to improve maternal health. Evidence on the structural factors underlying these disparities remains limited. Objectives: To analyze structural ethnic inequities in maternal mortality between Indigenous and non-Indigenous women in Paraguay, focusing on territorial patterns, institutional access, and potentially preventable causes of death. Design: National population-based study using maternal mortality records registered in Paraguay between 2014 and 2023. Maternal mortality ratios (MMRs), incidence rate ratios (IRRs), and absolute differences were estimated according to Indigenous status. Logistic regression models were used to assess associations with deaths occurring outside healthcare institutions and specific preventable causes of death. Results: A total of 907 maternal deaths were identified, including 112 among Indigenous women (12.3%). Indigenous women were overrepresented by a factor of 4.8 relative to their population share. Maternal mortality remained consistently higher among Indigenous women throughout the study period, with mortality ratios ranging from 317.7 to 773.6 per 100,000 live births, compared with 58.7 to 145.1 among non-Indigenous women. Absolute inequalities remained persistently high over time. Overall, 24.3% of maternal deaths occurred outside healthcare institutions, with a substantially higher proportion among Indigenous women (44.6% versus 21.5%). After adjustment for age and educational level, Indigenous women had more than three times greater odds of dying outside healthcare institutions (aOR = 3.41; 95% CI: 2.20-5.29). Potentially preventable causes accounted for 42.4% of maternal deaths. Obstetric hemorrhage was strongly associated with Indigenous status (aOR = 3.83; 95% CI: 2.31-6.37). Conclusion: Indigenous women in Paraguay experience a disproportionate burden of maternal mortality characterized by persistent ethnic disparities, higher occurrence of deaths outside healthcare institutions, and a substantial burden of preventable causes of death. These findings suggest the presence of enduring territorial, institutional, and healthcare access barriers that contribute to structural ethnic inequities in maternal health.

23.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-16

A small noise approximation for Muller's Ratchet

arXiv:2606.15842v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We consider an infinite system of SDEs with Fleming-Viot noise indexed by $k=0,1,2,\dots$, whose parameters $\alpha,\lambda$, and $\nu$ are the (deleterious) selection coefficient, the (uni-directional) mutation rate, and a quantity which determines the size of the system's fluctuations. The SDE's unique weak solution $X(t) = (X_k(t))_{k=0,1,2,...}$ models what is known in population genetics as Muller's ratchet. Here, $X_k(t)$ stands for the frequency of individuals carrying $k$ deleterious mutations. Since the mutation process is uni-directional, $t\mapsto \inf\{k: X_k(t)> 0\}$ is non-decreasing for almost every path of $X$, and we refer to an increase as a click of Muller's ratchet. A long standing question concerns the clicking rate of Muller's ratchet. Using Duhamel's principle for semigroups, we give a partial answer by approximating $E(\sum_{k=1}^\infty kX_k(t) )$ and $E\big(X_0(t)\big)$ up to $O(1/\nu^2)$ for fixed $\alpha$, $\lambda$ and $t>0$. Our results suggest that $\psi:=\nu \alpha e^{-\lambda/\alpha}$ is a crucial quantity also when the mutation/selection ratio $\theta = \lambda/\alpha$ is moderately large: for large $\nu \alpha$, clicking of the ratchet on the time scale $\frac 1\alpha \log \theta$ becomes rare as soon as $\psi$ becomes large.

24.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-19

Quantifying Aleatoric Uncertainty of In-Context Learning for Robust Measure of LLM Prediction Confidence

In-Context Learning (ICL) allows LLMs to adapt to new tasks from a few demonstrations, but its reliability remains a concern: predictions are highly sensitive to both prompt design and the model's ability to understand the context, obscuring whether failures arise from data properties or model limitations. Uncertainty decomposition-separating aleatoric from epistemic sources-is particularly crucial in this setting, yet existing methods, designed for standard generation tasks, fail to capture the unique dynamics of ICL. To address this, we introduce a concept of self-function vectors, built upon Bayesian views and the mechanistic interpretability of ICL. These vectors leverage internal model representations to model the latent concept learned during in-context prompting, thereby enabling a direct estimation of aleatoric uncertainty within a Bayesian framework and circumventing the reliance on brittle input or decoding manipulations. Given the lack of established benchmarks and suitable evaluation protocols, we also propose the first and rigorous evaluation protocol, in which data is manipulated in controlled ways so as to quantify aleatoric uncertainty precisely and separately from epistemic uncertainty. With this new evaluation framework, initially grounded in synthetic tasks for conceptual development and subsequently extended to real-world datasets, we show that our proposed methodology can measure uncertainty of LLM predictions made under ICL more reliably than existing alternative methods. Moreover, we show it can be used as a practical tool for trustworthy-related applications, such as hallucination detection. Our findings pave a new direction for connecting the quantitative view of uncertainty with the mechanistic understanding of model behavior.

25.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

No One-Size-Fits-All Neurons: Task-based Neurons for Artificial Neural Networks

arXiv:2405.02369v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: In the past decade, many successful networks are on novel architectures, which almost exclusively use the same type of neurons. Recently, more and more deep learning studies have been inspired by the idea of NeuroAI and the neuronal diversity observed in human brains, leading to the proposal of novel artificial neuron designs. Designing well-performing neurons represents a new dimension relative to designing well-performing neural architectures. Biologically, the brain does not rely on a single type of neuron that universally functions in all aspects. Instead, in our brain, neurons are often task-based. In this study, we address the following question: since the human brain is a task-based neuron user, can the artificial network design go from the task-based architecture design to the task-based neuron design? Since methodologically there are no one-size-fits-all neurons, given the same structure, task-based neurons can enhance the feature representation ability relative to the existing universal neurons due to the intrinsic inductive bias for the task. Specifically, we propose a two-step framework for prototyping task-based neurons. As the initial step, we evaluate the proposed framework using polynomials as base functions. Empirically, systematic experimental results on synthetic data, classic benchmarks, and real-world applications show that the proposed task-based neuron design is not only feasible but also delivers competitive performance over other state-of-the-art models.