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01.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-19

Fidelity bounds for adiabatic gates and other quantum operations with time-dependent dissipation

arXiv:2606.20501v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: As quantum-computing platforms are susceptible to noise, the fidelity of quantum operations is limited by decoherence. Understanding this limitation is crucial for building utility-scale quantum processors. In previous works [Phys. Rev. Lett. 129, 150504 (2022); Quantum 9, 1684 (2025)], we presented analytical formulae for the average gate fidelity of multi-qubit operations under static Markovian noise processes, including operations that temporarily leave the computational subspace. However, some quantum-computing architectures dynamically modulate qubit or coupler frequencies to implement two-qubit gates, e.g., baseband flux gates; such modulation can lead to dissipation rates varying in time. In this Letter, we therefore generalize the fidelity-reduction formulae to encompass time-dependent dissipation. Applying our generalized formula, we obtain a fidelity bound for adiabatic operations and demonstrate that flux-dependent noise sensitivity, combined with qubit-coupler hybridization, significantly reduces the fidelity of adiabatic controlled-Z (CZ) gates in superconducting quantum computers. Our work thus provides essential theoretical tools for evaluating error budgets and optimizing the design of quantum operations in tunable quantum-computing architectures, and may also find applications in quantum-sensing and quantum-communication protocols that are affected by time-dependent dissipation.

02.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-18

MCompassRAG: Topic Metadata as a Semantic Compass for Paragraph-Level Retrieval

Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) systems depend critically on how documents are chunked and searched. Fine-grained chunks can improve retrieval precision but expand the search space, increasing latency and cost; larger chunks reduce the number of candidates but make dense similarity less reliable, as the representation for each chunk mixes multiple topics and introduces more semantic noise. This trade-off becomes especially limiting in deep research tasks, where retrieval must be both fast and precise across large, heterogeneous corpora. We introduce MCompassRAG, a metadata-guided retrieval framework that uses topic-level signals as a semantic compass for selecting relevant evidence. Instead of relying only on cosine similarity between queries and noisy chunk embeddings, MCompassRAG enriches chunk representations with topic metadata in the same embedding space and trains a lightweight retriever through LLM-teacher distillation. At inference time, MCompassRAG performs topic-aware retrieval without additional LLM calls, improving both efficiency and evidence quality. Across six complex retrieval benchmarks, MCompassRAG improves information efficiency (IE) by 8.24% on average with over 5 times lower latency than the strongest efficient RAG baselines. Code is available on https://github.com/AmirAbaskohi/MCompassRAG.

03.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-16

Systematic Construction of Time-Dependent Hamiltonians for Microwave-Driven Josephson Circuits

arXiv:2512.20743v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Time-dependent electromagnetic drives are fundamental for controlling complex quantum systems, including superconducting Josephson circuits. In these devices, accurate time-dependent Hamiltonian models are imperative for predicting their dynamics and designing high-fidelity quantum operations. Existing numerical methods, such as black-box quantization (BBQ) and energy-participation ratio (EPR), excel at modeling the static Hamiltonians of Josephson circuits. However, these techniques do not fully capture the behavior of driven circuits stimulated by external microwave drives, nor do they include a generalized approach to account for the inevitable noise and dissipation that enter through microwave ports. Here, we introduce numerical techniques that leverage classical microwave simulations, efficiently executable in finite-element solvers, to obtain the time-dependent Hamiltonian of microwave-driven superconducting circuits with arbitrary geometries under charge, flux, or mixed electromagnetic modulation. Importantly, our techniques do not rely on a lumped-element description of the superconducting circuit, in contrast to previous approaches to tackling this problem. We demonstrate the versatility of our approach by characterizing the driven properties of realistic circuit devices in complex electromagnetic environments, including coherent dynamics due to charge and flux modulation, as well as drive-induced relaxation and dephasing. Our techniques offer a powerful toolbox for optimizing circuit designs and advancing practical applications in superconducting quantum computing.

04.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-15

CoRe-MoE: Contrastive Reweighted Mixture of Experts for Multi-Terrain Humanoid Locomotion with Gait Adaptation

arXiv:2606.04718v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Humans primarily rely on walking and running to traverse complex terrains. Similarly, humanoid robots should be able to smoothly transition between walking and running while maintaining natural and stable locomotion. However, unifying gait transition and multi-terrain adaptation within a single policy remains challenging due to gradient interference between tasks and the distribution shift caused by terrain variations. Although Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architectures can mitigate multi-skill interference, direct joint training often fails to achieve clear expert specialization. To address these challenges, we propose CoRe-MoE, a two-stage reinforcement learning framework that decouples gait generation from terrain adaptation. In the first stage, a stable locomotion policy is learned to produce natural walking and running behaviors with smooth transitions. In the second stage, a terrain-aware MoE branch is introduced, and the gating network is trained with a contrastive objective to learn structured terrain representations and promote expert specialization. The final action is obtained through weighted fusion of the base gait policy and the terrain-aware branch, enabling the policy to preserve stable locomotion while adapting to complex terrains. Extensive simulation results demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms baseline approaches in terms of success rate, locomotion stability, and multi-terrain adaptability. Furthermore, zero-shot deployment on a Unitree G1 humanoid robot validates the effectiveness of our framework, achieving robust walking and running across stairs, slopes, steps, obstacles, and unstructured outdoor terrains while maintaining accurate foothold control and dynamic stability.

05.
PLOS Medicine 2026-05-21

U = U for all: Advancing equity in HIV prevention

by Thiago S. Torres, Paula M. Luz Suppression of HIV with antiretrovirals eliminates HIV transmission risk, summarized as Undetectable = Untransmittable (U = U). However, U = U literacy remains unevenly understood and shared, and stigmas persist. Equitable and accurate awareness of U = U requires culturally tailored interventions, improved provider education, and supportive policy environments beyond biomedical evidence alone. Suppression of HIV with antiretrovirals eliminates HIV transmission risk, summarized as Undetectable = Untransmittable (U=U). However, U=U literacy remains unevenly understood and shared, and stigmas persist. In this Perspective, Thiago Torres and Paula Luz outline what is needed to improve equity and accuracy in global awareness and education of U=U.

06.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-17

A Dynamical Systems Perspective on the Analysis of Neural Networks

arXiv:2507.05164v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: In this chapter, we utilize dynamical systems to analyze several aspects of machine learning algorithms. As an expository contribution we demonstrate how to re-formulate a wide variety of challenges from deep neural networks, (stochastic) gradient descent, and related topics into dynamical statements. We also tackle three concrete challenges. First, we consider the process of information propagation through a neural network, i.e., we study the input-output map for different architectures. We explain the universal embedding property for augmented neural ODEs representing arbitrary functions of given regularity, the classification of multilayer perceptrons and neural ODEs in terms of suitable function classes, and the memory-dependence in neural delay equations. Second, we consider the training aspect of neural networks dynamically. We describe a dynamical systems perspective on gradient descent and study stability for overdetermined problems. We then extend this analysis to the overparameterized setting and describe the edge of stability phenomenon, also in the context of possible explanations for implicit bias. For stochastic gradient descent, we present stability results for the overparameterized setting via Lyapunov exponents of interpolation solutions. Third, we explain several results regarding mean-field limits of neural networks. We describe a result that extends existing techniques to heterogeneous neural networks involving graph limits via digraph measures. This shows how large classes of neural networks naturally fall within the framework of Kuramoto-type models on graphs and their large-graph limits. Finally, we point out that similar strategies to use dynamics to study explainable and reliable AI can also be applied to settings such as generative models or fundamental issues in gradient training methods, such as backpropagation or vanishing/exploding gradients.

07.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

Robust $Q$-learning for mean-field control under Wasserstein uncertainty in common noise

arXiv:2606.20356v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: In this article, we present a robust $Q$-learning algorithm for discrete-time mean-field control problems under Wasserstein uncertainty in the common noise law. The algorithm combines a quantization-and-projection scheme with a Wasserstein dual reformulation on the common-noise space. We establish its convergence together with finite-time iteration bounds for both synchronous and asynchronous learning schemes. Numerical experiments on systemic risk and epidemic models compare the asynchronous implementation with an idealized Bellman iteration, illustrate the robustness-performance tradeoff under common-noise misspecification, and report the observed convergence behavior of the asynchronous $Q$-learning algorithm.

08.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-12

Branching-selection particle systems and inverse first passage problems

Authors:

arXiv:2606.13487v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: A generalised inverse first passage problem asks whether, given a probability measure $p$ on $[0,\infty]$, one can find a boundary $b:[0,\infty]\to \mathbb{R}$ such that the stopping time:\[\tau:=\inf\left\{t:\Lambda\int_0^t \omega(W_s-b(s))ds \geq U\right\}\] has distribution $p$, where $U\sim Exp(1)$, $\Lambda\in(0,\infty)$ and $\omega$ is a monotonic decreasing function. We construct a branching-selection particle system whose hydrodynamic limit is governed by a free boundary problem and connect this to the generalised inverse first passage problem. In the $N$-particle system, particles move as independent Brownian motions, branch at a prescribed rate, and are removed at a rate proportional to their location relative to a position $b^N(t)$ which is a function of the empirical distribution. We identify the limit of $b^N$ as the solution of the inverse first passage problem.

09.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-18

FoMoE: Breaking the Full-Replica Barrier with a Federation of MoEs

arXiv:2606.19025v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Pre-training Large Language Models (LLMs) typically demands large-scale infrastructure with tightly coupled hardware accelerators. While increasing model and dataset scale remains the dominant driver of performance, Mixture-of-Experts (MoEs) architectures have recently achieved state-of-the-art results by decoupling parameter count from computational cost. This efficiency enables training massive models on constrained compute budgets, yet it typically requires the high-speed interconnects of a single datacenter. To overcome these physical limits, recent approaches such as DiLoCo and Photon use low-communication data-parallel methods to enable scaling across geographically distributed, weakly connected data centers. However, these methods suffer from a fundamental inefficiency: they require full model replicas at every site, which imposes prohibitive memory constraints and communication overheads. In this work, we introduce FoMoE, a system that breaks the full-replica paradigm by partitioning expert layers across workers. We demonstrate that FoMoE: (I) reduces communication costs by up to 1.42x over efficient baselines and 45.44x over DDP via partial expert replication in the studied regimes; (II) achieves empirical throughput speedups of up to 1.4x through a novel skip-token mechanism; and (III) shows stable routing in the trained proxy regimes and projects the communication/memory benefits to 100B-scale configurations through system modelling.

10.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-24

A Unified Framework for Runtime Verification and Model-Based Diagnosis in LOLA

arXiv:2606.23720v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We present an integrated framework that unifies runtime verification and model-based diagnosis within the stream specification language LOLA. By encoding system descriptions, component health states, and observations into a single stream-based formalism, the approach enables continuous, online fault localization directly alongside fault detection, without requiring separate toolchains. The framework supports both time-invariant and transient faults, and naturally accommodates nondeterministic observations.

11.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-18

Functions of Bounded Variation and Point Processes

arXiv:2606.08304v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We investigate the relationship between the analytical properties of functions of bounded variation and the statistical behavior of hyperuniform point processes. We establish several characterization formulas for the jump part of the gradient of a bounded variation function, extending and unifying previous results by Beretti–Gennaioli and Dávila. In particular, we provide new expressions for the $L^2$-jump of the gradient using both difference quotients and Fourier transform methods. Furthermore, we connect these analytic structures to the theory of hyperuniform point processes. By analyzing the variance of linear statistics associated with bounded variation functions, we provide asymptotic estimates that depend on the specific classification of the hyperuniformity of the point process. The results show how the regularity and jump discontinuities of a function dictate the growth rate of fluctuations in point processes. Finally, we introduce an averaged quadratic BMO-type oscillation functional over translated and rotated cube partitions, similar to the one recently studied by Ambrosio et al., and prove, using results from point process, that it converges to an explicit dimensional constant times the $L^2-$jump, giving in particular a further new characterization of the perimeter of a set.

12.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-24

PEARL: Self-Evolving Assistant for Time Management with Reinforcement Learning

Overlapping calendar invitations force busy professionals to repeatedly decide which meetings to attend, reschedule, or decline. We refer to this preference-driven decision process as calendar conflict resolution. Automating this decision process is crucial yet challenging. Scheduling logistics can drain hours, and human delegation often fails at scale, which motivates us to ask: Can we trust large language models (LLMs) or language agents to manage time? To enable a systematic study of this question, we introduce CalConflictBench, a benchmark for long-horizon calendar conflict resolution. In CalConflictBench, conflicts are presented to agents round-by-round over a calendar year, requiring them to infer and adapt to user preferences progressively. Our experiments show that current LLM agents perform poorly with high error rates, e.g., Qwen-3-30B-Think has an average error rate of 35%. To address this gap, we propose PEARL, a reinforcement-learning framework that (i) augments the language agent with an external preference memory that stores and updates inferred strategies (e.g., attendee priorities, topic importance, time/location preferences), and (ii) optimizes the agent with round-wise rewards that directly supervise decision correctness, ranking quality, and memory usage across rounds. Experiments on CalConflictBench show that PEARL achieves an error reduction rate of 0.76 and a 55% improvement in average error rate compared to the strongest baseline.

13.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-24

Pigeonholing: Bad prompts hurt models to collapse and make mistakes

While in-context learning is generally shown to be effective in Large Language Models (LLMs), bad contexts can cause performance degradation and mode collapse, a phenomenon we call "pigeonholing." **Unintentionally bad** contexts can happen without malicious jailbreaking intents: For example, a user asks the model to justify an incorrect math theorem or fails to correct the model's buggy code. Specifically, we investigate ``pigeonholing" in two scenarios: (1) when the user suggests a solution, and (2) when the conversation context includes the assistant's previous (incorrect) responses. Our experiments across 10 verifiable and open-ended tasks with 10 different models show that pigeonholing manifests in several ways: (1) repeating the incorrect answers from context (leading to 38-40% performance drop), (2) converging on a narrow set of answers in coding and text generation without exploring alternatives, and (3) flipping stance on controversial topics to align with the user or the assistant's previous claims. We find that pigeonholing worsens almost monotonically with the number of conversation turns (performance drops by additional 14+% as repeated mistakes increase from 1 to 5), and pigeonholing-induced mode collapse can happen even when the provided example is correct. As a step toward mitigation, we propose RLVR with synthetic errors which improves models by 43-60% under bad contexts compared to vanilla RLVR baselines.

14.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-17

Optimality Condition for the Petz Map

arXiv:2410.23622v5 Announce Type: replace Abstract: In quantum error correction, the Petz map serves as a perfect recovery map when the Knill-Laflamme conditions are satisfied. Notably, while perfect recovery is generally infeasible for most quantum channels of finite dimension, the Petz map remains a versatile tool with near-optimal performance in recovering quantum states. This work introduces and proves, for the first time, the necessary and sufficient conditions for the optimality of the Petz map in terms of entanglement fidelity. In some special cases, the violation of this condition can be easily characterized by a simple commutator that can be efficiently computed. We provide multiple examples that substantiate our new findings.

15.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-18

Sequential Hiring of Contingent Workers Through Learning-Based Optimization

arXiv:2606.18438v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: In this paper, we study a sequential workforce management problem in a contingent labor setting with uncertainty in both worker production and labor supply. A firm seeks to maximize cumulative profit by maintaining an active team of fixed size while learning worker productivity over time. We emphasize two critical operational frictions in this problem: replacing workers is costly, and workers may not be available immediately for hiring because of, for example, prior job commitments, scheduling constraints, or onboarding procedures. Thus, hiring decisions take effect only after a random delay. We formulate this problem as a stochastic multi-play bandit with costly switching and delayed actions, and develop a learning-based hiring policy, DR-UCB (DelayedReplacement-UCB), that makes replacement and hiring decisions sequentially through learning cycles. In each cycle, the policy uses real-time production data to determine when to initiate workforce changes and which workers to replace and hire. We show that the leading-order regret of the proposed policy matches its lower bound in its dependence on the time horizon. Our numerical experiments show that DR-UCB outperforms benchmark policies.

16.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-11

A Survey on Evaluating Quality and Trustworthiness in LLM-Generated Data

arXiv:2601.17717v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Large Language Models (LLMs) have emerged as powerful tools for generating data across various modalities. By transforming data from a scarce resource into a controllable asset, LLMs mitigate the bottlenecks imposed by the acquisition costs of real-world data for model training, evaluation, and system iteration. However, ensuring the high quality of LLM-generated synthetic data remains a critical challenge. Existing research primarily focuses on generation methodologies, with limited direct attention to the quality of the resulting data. Furthermore, most studies are restricted to single modalities, lacking a unified perspective across different data types. To bridge this gap, we propose the LLM Data Auditor framework. In this framework, we first describe how LLMs are utilized to generate data across six distinct modalities. More importantly, we systematically categorize intrinsic metrics for evaluating synthetic data from two dimensions: quality and trustworthiness. This approach shifts the focus from extrinsic evaluation, which relies on downstream task performance, to the inherent properties of the data itself. Using this evaluation system, we analyze the experimental evaluations of representative generation methods for each modality and identify substantial deficiencies in current evaluation practices. Based on these findings, we offer concrete recommendations for the community to improve the evaluation of data generation. Finally, the framework outlines methodologies for the practical application of synthetic data across different modalities.

18.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-12

When Does Mixing Help? Analyzing Query Embedding Interpolation in Multilingual Dense Retrieval

While mixed-language querying is ubiquitous in multilingual communities, the sensitivity of dense retrievers to such queries remains poorly understood. We present a ratio-controlled study on mMARCO that systematically evaluates retrieval performance by varying the mixing proportion of parallel query translations via embedding-level mixing – constructing mixed queries as an interpolation of monolingual embeddings. Experiments with BGE-M3 demonstrate that an optimal mixing ratio outperforms the best monolingual endpoint in 88/105 cases. We uncover a distinct asymmetry driven by English dominance: mixing is uniformly beneficial when retrieving from non-English document indices, whereas indices containing English are best served by pure English queries. Furthermore, English acts as the strongest mixing partner for every non-English document language. Finally, when controlling for English dominance, mixing gains correlate negatively with typological distance. We conclude that language-mix sensitivity is structured and predictable, and we validate the robustness of these patterns across model families and scales.

19.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-12

Non-commutative Law of iterated logarithm

arXiv:2509.22037v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We prove optimal non-commutative analogues of the classical Law of Iterated Logarithm (LIL) for both martingales and sequences of independent (non-commutative) random variables. The classical martingale version was established by Stout [Sto70b] and the independent case by Hartman-Wintner [HW41]. Our approach relies on a key exponential inequality essentially due to Randrianantoanina [Ran24] that improves that from Junge and Zeng [JZ15]. It allows to derive an optimal non-commutative Stout-type LIL just as in [Zen15], from that martingale result we then deduce a non-commutative Hartman-Wintner type LIL for independent sequences of random variables.

20.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-15

Characterizing Cultural Localization in AI-Generated Stories

The global use of artificial intelligence has increased interest in assessing the ability to generate culturally localized content, including stories. Cultural localization in stories often occurs through either templated localization – the use of cultural markers (e.g., names, locations) in a generic narrative – or holistic localization – the variation of plots, values, and themes, in addition to cultural markers. We propose a method to measure the degree to which content was generated through templated localization. Specifically, we identify the lexical tokens that distinguish stories across nationalities and measure the similarity of the narratives that remain after removing them. In stories generated by five models on 125 topics for 193 nationalities, our method is able to detect that only a small subset (9-17%) of the vocabulary accounts for the variation across nationalities and that the narratives that remain after removing them contain repeated multi-word sequences, suggesting the presence of a shared culturally-agnostic narrative template. Finally, we characterize the cultural markers for their stereotypicality and offensiveness, finding that markers from 19 countries, mostly located in the Global South, are on average offensive.

21.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-15

Towards Mitigating Hallucinations in Large Vision-Language Models by Refining Textual Embeddings

Hallucinations in Large Vision-Language Models (LVLMs) remain a persistent challenge, often stemming from inadequate integration of visual information during multimodal reasoning. A key cause is the model's over-reliance on textual priors and underutilization of visual cues, leading to outputs that are linguistically fluent but visually inaccurate. For example, given an image of an empty kitchen countertop, an LVLM might hallucinate a "bowl of fruit" or "cup of coffee", relying on language associations rather than visual evidence. Most LVLMs incorporate visual features by appending them to the input stream of a pre-trained LLM and training on large-scale vision-language datasets. Our systematic analysis reveals that this strategy often leads to over-dependence on textual information due to the inherent bias of LLMs towards language-dominant representations. This imbalance skews attention towards the text over visual content, weakening the model's ability to ground outputs in visual inputs. To address this, we propose a simple yet effective visual feature incorporation method that encourages the model to learn visually-informed textual embeddings distinct from those of the base LLM and promotes a more balanced attention distribution. Experimental results across multiple hallucination benchmarks demonstrate that our method significantly reduces hallucinations and fosters more balanced multimodal reasoning. Notably, our approach achieves substantial gains, including +9.33% on MMVP-MLLM, +2.99% on POPE-AOKVQA, up to +3.4% on Merlin, and +3% on the hard-data split of HallusionBench.

22.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

Analyzing the Narration Gap in LLM-Solver Loops

arXiv:2606.19588v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Formal tools such as SAT and SMT solvers are increasingly embedded in language model reasoning pipelines when a safety or security critical question can be formulated in logic. Unlike chain of thought whose steps are sampled from the model distribution without formal guarantee, a solver produces a sound and independently verifiable answer. However, the soundness guarantee can be lost in the interaction between the solver and the model. The hybrid pipeline has three components: formalizing the question, deciding it, and narrating the result. Prior work has studied the formalization and decision, but not narration, which is the step that turns a formal tool's output into the user answer. To fill the narration gap, we first model the LLM-solver loop as a verified decision procedure. We further evaluate five open-sourced models under prompt injection, and we find certificate gating makes the solver verdict sound, while an adversary can invert a verified conclusion across phrasings and channels. We study the mitigation through hardened prompt that reduces injection significantly but cannot eliminate it and still suffers under adaptive attack. Combining the formal analysis and empirical studies, we show in the LLM-solver loop, robustness does not reach to the answer that the user finally reads.

23.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

To forget is to preserve: Machine Unlearning for 3D medical image segmentation

With new data privacy laws such as the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) [1] that allow individuals to ask that any of their personal information be erased from trained machine learning models, there has been a push to investigate the unlearning of data from models as a way to comply with these laws. In this regard, based on four mechanics, we consider several approximate unlearning strategies applied to the MRBrainS18 dataset [2]. We use a 3D ResNet-50 [3] as a backbone architecture for segmentation that has been pre-trained with the Med3D framework [4]. Considering the pre-trained model as a baseline, we evaluate respective retention accuracy on 2 types of subjects, i.e., retain and forget. We assess these approaches through their Dice similarity coefficient and mean absolute error (MAE) values using two separate training horizons 20 and 50 epochs. The results show that the Noisy Label strategy had the best overall trade-off with a decrease of 93% in the forget set while maintaining 84% accuracy for the retained set after 50 epochs. All other strategies showed extreme levels of forgetting at higher epoch numbers while also demonstrating catastrophic degradation of their retain set performance. The results of this study provide a strict baseline of performance metrics for unlearning on a subject-specific level and provide practitioners with clear criteria for selecting the proper strategies.

24.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-25

Imprecise Transition Matrices for Markov Cohort Models: Lower and Upper Expectations with a Practical Health Economic Application

arXiv:2606.25716v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: In applied health research, Markov cohort models are built on a precisely specified transition probability matrix. However, in many applications, the available evidence – transition counts, structural constraints, and treatment-effect data – identifies a set of admissible matrices rather than one uniquely justified matrix. This paper formulates an imprecise-probability extension in which inference yields lower and upper expectations over an evidence-compatible set of precise Markov cohort models. The contribution differs from existing imprecise Markov-chain work by focusing on finite-horizon cohort trajectories, additive accumulated outcomes, and transition matrices constructed from empirical transition counts. Under non-empty compact separately specified outgoing-row sets, the lower and upper accumulated outcomes are computed exactly by Bellman-style lower and upper transition operators. We prove the envelope theorem, reduction to the classical model, coherence properties of the lower transition operator, and algebraic conditions under which a single selected matrix yields a non-robust decision. We then show how multinomial transition counts induce admissible matrix sets through the Imprecise Dirichlet Model. A real-world cost-effectiveness example of patent foramen ovale closure after cryptogenic stroke illustrates the practical consequence: the empirical transition matrix slightly favors closure, whereas the imprecise analysis yields an incremental net monetary benefit interval crossing zero. The method provides both a rigorous lower-expectation formulation and a practical diagnostic for decisions that depend on transition probabilities not fully resolved by the evidence.

25.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-17

SEAGym: An Evaluation Environment for Self-Evolving LLM Agents

arXiv:2606.17546v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Self-evolving LLM-based agents improve mainly by changing their agent harness: the structured execution layer around a base model, including prompts, memory, tools, middleware, runtime state, and the model-tool interaction loop. Existing evaluations often reduce this process to isolated task scores or a single sequential curve, obscuring whether an update produces reusable improvement, overfits recent tasks, increases cost, or harms older behavior. We introduce SEAGym, an evaluation environment for measuring agent harness updates across training, validation, test, replay, and cost records. SEAGym turns Harbor-compatible benchmarks into dynamic self-evolution task sources with train batches, frozen update-validation, held-out ID and OOD transfer views, replay diagnostics, and saved snapshot and metric records. Instantiating SEAGym on Terminal-Bench 2.0 and HLE, we compare ACE, TF-GRPO, and AHE under a shared epoch/batch protocol. The results show that these evaluation views provide complementary signals about the evolution process: frequent updates may fail to improve held-out performance, useful intermediate snapshots may collapse later, and source diversity and model backend can affect harness reliability.