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01.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-12

Reasoning Models Know What's Important, and Encode It in Their Activations

Language models often solve complex tasks by generating long reasoning chains, consisting of many steps with varying importance. While some steps are crucial for generating the final answer, others are removable. Determining which steps matter most, and why, remains an open question central to understanding how models process reasoning. We investigate if this question is best approached through model internals or through tokens of the reasoning chain itself. We find that model activations contain more information than tokens for identifying important reasoning steps. Crucially, by training probes on model activations to predict importance, we show that models encode an internal representation of step importance, even prior to the generation of subsequent steps. The internal representations of importance in different models yield high agreement on which steps are important. The representation is distributed across layers, and does not correlate with surface-level features, such as a step's relative position or its length. Our findings suggest that analyzing activations can reveal aspects of reasoning that surface-level approaches fundamentally miss, indicating that reasoning analyses should look into model internals.

02.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-11

Population-scale detection of methylation outliers from long-read genome sequencing

Background: Aberrant DNA methylation can mediate the functional effects of rare genetic variation and contribute to imprinting disorders, repeat expansion diseases, and other pathogenic regulatory mechanisms. Long-read sequencing technologies now enable genome-wide detection of CpG methylation alongside genetic variation from a single assay. However, methods for systematic identification and interpretation of methylation outliers from long-read sequencing data remain limited. Methods: We developed METAFORA, a computational workflow for detecting methylation outlier regions from PacBio and Oxford Nanopore long-read sequencing data. METAFORA constructs population-level methylation references, segments the genome into correlated CpG blocks, infers technical and biological sources of variation through hidden factor estimation, models uncertainty due to variable depth sequencing, and computes covariate-adjusted methylation outlier scores for individual samples. We applied METAFORA across large long-read sequencing cohorts and integrated methylation outliers with multi-omic data. METAFORA is implemented as a snakemake workflow available at https://github.com/tjense25/METAFORA. Results: METAFORA identified methylation outlier regions associated with rare structural variants, tandem repeat expansions, and imprinting abnormalities. We found outlier regions were enriched for molecular outliers across transcriptomic and chromatin accessibility datasets, supporting their functional relevance in gene regulation. In a representative case, METAFORA identified an imprinting defect affecting the GNAS locus associated with an STX16 deletion. Conclusions: METAFORA enables scalable detection and interpretation of methylation outliers from long-read sequencing data and provides a framework for integrating epigenetic outliers with genomic and multi-omic analyses. These approaches may improve interpretation of rare regulatory variation and support discovery of clinically relevant epigenetic abnormalities in genomic medicine.

03.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-11

Permutation-Invariant N-body gates via Tavis-Cummings Hamiltonian

arXiv:2506.03453v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Global control provides a promising route to implementing multi-qubit gates without individual qubit addressing. This is especially appealing for permutation-invariant (PI) gates, whose symmetry is often broken when they are compiled into individually addressed one- and two-qubit gates. Important examples include SWAP, $\sqrt{iSWAP}$, and the n-qubit controlled-Z gate, which is equivalent, up to two single-qubit Hadamard gates, to the multi-qubit Toffoli gate. Motivated by this global-control perspective, we show that all PI unitaries on an arbitrary number of qubits can be realized using the Tavis-Cummings (TC) interaction, the multi-qubit version of the Jaynes-Cummings interaction, together with global uniform z and x fields. Here, the $n$ qubits are identically coupled to a single bosonic mode (oscillator), which is initialized in and returned to its vacuum state. A corollary is that all PI states, including GHZ and Dicke states, can be prepared using the same global control. For the case n=2 qubits, which is particularly important in quantum computing, we also find explicit pulse sequences for implementing all PI qubit unitaries that conserve angular momentum in the z direction, using only the TC interaction and global z fields. This includes controlled-Z, SWAP, and $\sqrt{iSWAP}$.

04.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

Information Lattice Learning as Probabilistic Graphical Model Structure Learning

arXiv:2606.19366v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Information lattice learning (ILL) learns interpretable rules of a signal by alternately projecting the signal onto a partition lattice that encodes a hierarchy of abstractions and lifting selected rules back to the signal domain. When the signal is a probability mass function, we show the probabilistic rules learned by ILL admit a natural probabilistic graphical model (PGM) interpretation and develop this interpretation in detail. A partition in ILL induces a deterministic quotient variable, and a rule is the marginal law of that quotient variable. A rule set is therefore a collection of marginal constraints over interpretable abstractions. General lifting is the feasible family of all joint distributions satisfying those constraints, while special lifting chooses a maximum-ignorance reconstruction, implemented in ILL by an L2 uniformity principle closely related to maximum entropy. Under a Shannon-entropy lifting, the same constraints yield a log-linear factor graph whose factors are indexed by learned abstractions. The information lattice itself, however, is not a Bayesian network: its edges encode refinement and coarsening of abstractions, not conditional dependence. Thus ILL is best viewed as structure learning for interpretable constraint-based factor graphs over quotient variables. This view clarifies how ILL relates to graphical models and maximum entropy models, while suggesting new directions for inference, identifiability, and hybrid symbolic-probabilistic learning.

05.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-12

M\"OVE: A Holistic LLM Benchmark for the German Public Sector

We present M\"OVE (Modelle für die \"Offentliche Verwaltung Evaluieren), a holistic benchmark for evaluating large language models (LLMs) in the context of the German public sector. While LLMs are increasingly adopted in public administration, model selection remains largely ad hoc, and existing benchmarks offer limited guidance: they are predominantly English-centric, US-centric in content, and focus exclusively on task performance. M\"OVE addresses these gaps by evaluating 39 models across two complementary dimensions. Performance criteria cover summarization, question answering, and topic extraction. Governance criteria assess hallucination tendencies, energy consumption, provider transparency, and alignment with German constitutional values and knowledge about positions by German political parties. In total, we utilize ten German-language datasets, including gold- and silverstandard datasets that we constructed to reflect public-administration domains. We employ a multi-metric evaluation strategy combining classical NLP metrics, embedding-based methods, and LLM-as-a-judge approaches. Our results show that no single model dominates across all criteria: top performers differ between tasks, and model size alone is a poor predictor of quality. We further evaluate the benchmark itself, analyzing its statistical precision, LLM judge reliability, the impact of our private datasets on model rankings, the sensitivity of our results to prompt formulation, and the validity of our energy consumption estimates. M\"OVE is designed as a living benchmark under active development; results are publicly available at https://moeve.bundesdruckerei.de/.

06.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-15

Traditional machine learning vs. deep learning from dynamic graph representations of proteins' 3D folds in the task of protein structure classification

arXiv:2605.29228v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Protein structure classification (PSC) uses supervised learning to predict a protein's CATH/SCOP(e) class from the protein's sequence or 3D structural feature(s). We already modeled 3D structures as (static) protein structure networks (PSNs), demonstrating the competitiveness of PSN-based features to sequence or direct (i.e. non-network) 3D structural features in the PSC task. More recently, we demonstrated the power of features extracted from dynamic PSNs over features extracted from static PSNs (and thus by transitivity over sequence and direct 3D structural features) in the same task. That dynamic PSN approach used traditional machine learning (ML), combining manual (pre-engineered) features with an off-the-shelf classifier. Here, we evaluate whether automatic deep learning (DL) from the dynamic PSNs yields improvements. Our evaluation on 72 datasets spanning ~44,000 CATH- or SCOPe-labeled dynamic PSNs reveals that in terms of PSC accuracy, traditional ML and DL are (close to) tied for a large majority of the datasets, while DL is on average 10+ times slower. We are the first to evaluate traditional ML vs. DL in the dynamic PSN-based PSC task.

07.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-19

Neural Events: Discrete Asynchronous Autoencoders for Event-Based Vision

Event cameras capture dynamic scenes with exceptional temporal fidelity by representing them as a continuous stream of microsecond resolution events. Each individual event, however, only carries minimal semantic value, merely signaling a localized brightness change. To derive meaningful signals, downstream algorithms need to quickly integrate cues from a potentially massive torrent of low-information events. Current architectures, however, are easily overwhelmed, struggling to balance capturing fine-grained temporal dynamics and maintaining a manageable data throughput. This paper proposes a framework to re-tokenize event streams into a small set of highly informative neural events, each representing a local spatio-temporal context window with a discrete learnable code. Every time this code flips, a neural event is triggered, yielding a highly compressed data stream. We demonstrate that, across object detection and classification, networks trained on neural events are on par or surpass the performance of state-of-the-art approaches while reducing the event rate by a factor of 2.0.

08.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-12

Cross-Modal Masked Compositional Concept Modeling for Enhancing Visio-Linguistic Compositionality

Contrastively trained vision-language models like CLIP, have made remarkable progress in learning joint image-text representations, but still face challenges in compositional understanding. They often exhibit a "bag-of-words" behavior–struggling to capture the object relations, attribute-object bindings, and word order dependencies. This limitation arises not only from the reliance on global, single-vector representations for optimization, but also from the insufficient exploitation and modeling of the rich compositional information inherently present in paired image text data. In this work, we propose MACCO (MAsked Compositional Concept MOdeling), a framework that masks compositional concepts in one modality and reconstructs them conditioned on the full contextual information from the other, enabling the model to capture and align cross-modal compositional structures more effectively. To facilitate this process, we introduce two auxiliary objectives that jointly align and regularize masked features both inter-modally and intra-modally. Extensive experiments on five compositional benchmarks, along with in-depth analyses, demonstrate that our approach not only significantly enhances compositionality in VLMs but also improves their ability to capture syntactic structure and linguistic information. Additionally, the improved compositionality also benefits text-to-image generation and multimodal large language model. Code is available at https://github.com/hiker-lw/MACCO.

09.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-16

Plateau Gaps of Poisson Correctors Encode Metastable Reaction Rates

arXiv:2606.14789v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Metastable reaction rates are commonly inferred from transition-state fluxes, mean first-passage times, or fitted kinetic models. We show that they are directly encoded in the plateau gap of an occupation-time Poisson corrector. For a centered basin-occupation observable, the Poisson corrector develops metastable plateaus in the reactant and product basins, and their separation determines the forward and backward transition rates. This construction requires only the generator, stationary measure, and metastable partition, and therefore does not rely on a predefined transition-state surface. In overdamped and underdamped double-well dynamics, the plateau-gap rate recovers the Kramers, Grote-Hynes, and Pollak-Grabert-Hänggi hierarchy. The same corrector-martingale decomposition yields a reactive-noise density, revealing where stochastic forcing contributes to transitions in configuration or phase space. Thus, reaction rates and their fluctuation sources emerge from a single corrector field.

10.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-19

FrozenDrive: Zero-Shot Text-Guided Driving Scene Generation and Data Augmentation with Parameter-Free Frozen Diffusion Model

Synthetic data for autonomous driving is surging, powered by diffusion models that promise scalable scene generation. Yet key obstacles remain, as enforcing multi-view and temporal consistency often relies on backbone fine-tuning or added layers, which erodes pre-trained knowledge and weakens text alignment. Models also stay close to the training distribution, struggling under adverse weather and unseen configurations, and fidelity favors frequent over rare classes. We address these gaps with FrozenDrive, a controllable generative framework that preserves a pretrained diffusion models knowledge while achieving strong consistency. FrozenDrive conditions on rich driving-stack signals and text prompts, and introduces knowledge-preserving spatio-temporal attention to impose cross-view alignment and temporal coherence in a single pass within a parameter-free frozen diffusion backbone. An additional object-focused constraint improves per-object fidelity for rare categories. Without any weather- or scene-specific fine-tuning, our model synthesizes globally coherent multi-view driving scenes from text, particularly under adverse and rare conditions, and surpasses prior baselines. On nuScenes, FrozenDrive augmented data significantly improves AD models performance, especially at night and in rain, demonstrating stronger robustness when trained with our scenario-targeted data.

11.
Nature (Science) 2026-06-10

A first-in-class pulsatile FXR agonist for bile-acid-related liver diseases

Authors:

Nuclear receptors are central regulators of metabolism1, yet therapeutic strategies that enforce continuous receptor activation frequently lead to reduced efficacy and unacceptable toxicity. Here we report a first-principles drug design strategy that aligns pharmacokinetics with physiological signalling cycles. We developed linafexor, a potent non-bile-acid agonist of the farnesoid X receptor (FXR)2; it is engineered for rapid systemic clearance, which enables pulsatile receptor activation that mirrors endogenous bile acid dynamics3–5. Linafexor has robust efficacy across multiple preclinical models of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis6, liver fibrosis7, primary biliary cholangitis and primary sclerosing cholangitis8,9. Transcriptomic analyses reveal that, unlike long-acting FXR agonists10,11, linafexor preserves cyclic FXR signalling, avoids receptor downregulation and prevents broad transcriptional dysregulation. Direct manipulation of delivery patterns demonstrates that sustained FXR activation—independent of compound identity—induces severe toxicity, establishing activation duration as a determinant of therapeutic index. In phase 1 clinical studies (ClinicalTrials.gov; NCT05082779), linafexor administered once daily produces transient FXR pathway engagement, marked by (1) induction of FGF1912–14, a key endocrine mediator of bile acid feedback regulation; and (2) suppression of C415, an intermediate reflecting hepatic bile acid synthesis, with no treatment-related adverse events. Together, these findings identify pulsatile FXR activation as a mechanistically grounded and clinically translatable strategy, and establish linafexor as a first-in-class therapeutic for bile acid–related liver diseases. Linafexor is a rapidly cleared FXR agonist designed to mimic natural bile acid signalling, achieving transient receptor activation with strong efficacy and reduced toxicity in preclinical and early clinical studies.

12.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Sobolev Approximation by Fixed-Size Neural Networks with Arbitrary Accuracy

arXiv:2606.16975v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: In this work, we investigate new activation functions for achieving arbitrary-accuracy Sobolev approximation by fixed-size neural networks. We first show that any function in $W^{2,\infty}((a,b)^d)$ can be approximated with arbitrary accuracy, measured in the $W^{1,\infty}$-norm, by a fixed-size neural network using the Elementary Universal Activation Function ($\mathrm{EUAF}$). To extend this result to $W^{s,\infty}((a,b)^d)$ for $s\in\mathbb{N}$, we introduce a smooth activation $\mathrm{DUAF}_{\infty}$ from the family of Differentiable Universal Activation Functions ($\mathrm{DUAF}_n$). We prove that any function in $W^{s,\infty}((a,b)^d)$ can be approximated with arbitrary accuracy in the $W^{s-1,\infty}$-norm by a fixed-size $\mathrm{DUAF}_{\infty}$-activated network. We further construct sigmoidal variants $\widetilde{\mathrm{DUAF}}_n$ and show that, for every $1\leq s\leq n$, fixed-size $\widetilde{\mathrm{DUAF}}_n$-activated networks still approximate any $f\in W^{s,\infty}((a,b)^d)$ with arbitrary accuracy in the $W^{s-1,\infty}$-norm. In all these results, the width and depth bounds are computed explicitly, and the proposed activations are elementary.

13.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-18

UniTemp: Unlocking Video Generation in Any Temporal Order via Bidirectional Distillation

Autoregressive video diffusion models have emerged as a promising approach for long video generation, achieving strong performance in streaming settings. However, existing methods are restricted to forward temporal generation, whereas practical video creation often requires flexible generation order, e.g., conditioning on future context to extend backward, or on both past and future context for inbetween generation. We bridge this gap by training an autoregressive model that supports generation in arbitrary temporal directions. A key technical challenge arises from the Causal 3D VAE widely used in video diffusion models, which encodes latents strictly conditioned on past context. While suited for forward generation, this causal structure causes inter-block discontinuities when generation proceeds backward. To address this, we introduce blockwise anchor latents, a set of auxiliary latents that restore the missing past context at block boundaries during backward generation. Built on this design, we propose UniTemp, a bidirectional distillation framework that trains a single autoregressive student model for any-direction video generation. At inference time, UniTemp conditions on arbitrary past and/or future frames, improving controllability for both bidirectional and inbetween generation. Experiments show that UniTemp maintains competitive performance on short and long video generation compared to forward-only methods, while enabling diverse workflows such as bidirectional video extension, inbetween generation, looping video generation, scene transition, and visual story generation. Project website: https://lzhangbj.github.io/projects/unitemp/

14.
bioRxiv (Bioinfo) 2026-06-11

STITCH links cellular morphology and gene expression in spatial transcriptomics

In situ spatial (ISS) sequencing can uncover co-variation between cellular morphology and gene expression in vivo. However, a principled and interpretable mathematical representation of morphology has not yet been applied in this context. In particular, current deep learning-based representations of cell images confound a cell's shape with its size. We present an interpretable representation of cellular boundary contours, based on tangent principal component analysis (TPCA) in a Kendall shape manifold, that captures size-independent contour shape features. This approach successfully recovers shape-perturbing genes in an RNAi screen than a previous metric geometry-based approach. We build on TPCA to develop STITCH (Shape-TranscriptomIc Correlation and Harmonization), an approach to reveal covariation between cell morphology with gene expression in ISS datasets. In a Xenium dataset, STITCH outperforms a deep learning-based approach in both recovering the layered organization of keratinocytes and a spatial gradient in nuclear eccentricity. Across samples in a melanoma CosMx dataset, STITCH reproducibly associates elongated and triangular fibroblasts with proximity to malignant cells and myofibroblast-like transcriptional program. Finally, STITCH independently recovers a known link between mesenchymal-like malignant cell states and increased cell area in two melanoma cohorts. STITCH can thus yield interpretable morphology-transcriptome relationships across cell types, patients, and spatial transcriptomics platforms.

15.
Nature (Science) 2026-06-17

A mosaic of whole-body representations on the human precentral gyrus

Authors:

Understanding how the body is represented in the motor cortex is key to understanding how the brain controls movement. Although the motor cortex has been mapped in animal models at a fine scale1–10, characterization in humans remains primarily limited to low-resolution recording11–16 and stimulation techniques17–20. Here we created a comprehensive map of the human motor cortex at single-neuron resolution, spanning microelectrode array recordings from 20 arrays across 8 individuals with paralysis from spinal cord injury, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis or brainstem stroke, all enrolled in brain–computer interface clinical trials. These arrays broadly sample the crown of the precentral gyrus (PCG; thought to be composed largely of the premotor cortex (Brodmann area 6)). We found that body parts were highly intermixed, such that the entire body was represented in all sampled locations of the PCG, although the relative strength of body parts was roughly consistent with the motor homunculus17,18. We also found two speech-preferential areas with a broadly tuned, orofacial-dominant area in between them. Throughout the PCG, movement representations of the four limbs were interlinked, with homologous movements of different limbs (for example, toe curl and hand close) having correlated representations. These data provide evidence consistent with an intermixed, interrelated and behaviour-centred organization of the motor cortex3,21. The resulting map also provides important targeting information for brain–computer interfaces that seek to restore motor function. A comprehensive map of the human motor cortex at single-neuron resolution is described.

16.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-17

Position: Coding Benchmarks Are Misaligned with Agentic Software Engineering

Coding agents have become a major mode of software engineering, but the benchmarks we use to compare them were designed in a pre-agent era: they collapse model, harness, and environment into a single end-to-end score, typically computed against one reference solution, with no component-level signal for iteration. We argue that current coding benchmarks are misaligned with agentic software engineering. A coding agent in practice is not a model: it is a system harness – a composite of models, harnesses, contexts, environments, and feedback signals, any one of which can move the benchmark score by margins comparable to those between adjacent model generations. We discuss three symptoms: (i) benchmark scores conflate the model with the rest of the harness; (ii) grading against a single reference solution penalises equally valid alternatives; and (iii) the absence of signal at the level of individual harness components makes the end-to-end system score difficult to iterate on.

17.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

SCAR: Semantic Continuity-Aware Retrieval for Efficient Context Expansion in RAG

Fixed-length chunking in Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) often leads to boundary fragmentation, where critical evidence is split across segments, degrading retrieval recall. While static windowing and parent retrieval improve recall, they introduce significant token overhead. We propose SCAR (Semantic Continuity-Aware Retrieval), an adaptive retrieval policy that selectively expands neighboring chunks by weighing query-neighbor relevance against a structural continuity penalty. SCAR uses a relative expansion threshold tied to each retrieved chunk's own query-relevance, yielding an approximately scale-invariant decision rule that transfers across embedding models without recalibration. Across four diverse corpora (RFC, GDPR, a 10-K report, and a Merger agreement; N=320 queries; 160 boundary-fragmented), SCAR achieves 92.8% recall on boundary-fragmented queries with only 7.84 chunks, a 22.9% reduction compared to static windowing (10.16 chunks). Paired bootstrap tests (B=10,000) confirm the chunk reduction is highly significant (p

18.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-18

Machine Unlearning for the XGBoost Model with Network Intrusion Datasets

arXiv:2606.19220v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Machine Unlearning (MU) has emerged as an important technique for removing specific data points from trained models without requiring full retraining. However, most existing MU research focuses on deep learning and image data, leaving a gap in the domain of network intrusion detection, which relies heavily on tabular data. This work introduces XGBoost-Forget, an unlearning approach for the XGBoost model, to address this gap. The approach is evaluated on two tabular Network Intrusion (NI) datasets, IoT-23 and GeNIS, using multiple metrics to assess model performance, unlearning efficiency, and forgetting quality. The results show that XGBoost-Forget maintains predictive performance close to the original model while providing significantly faster unlearning, demonstrating its potential for MU in tabular NI settings.

19.
bioRxiv (Bioinfo) 2026-06-19

Perturbation Curve models continuous transcriptional response trajectories and improves prediction of genetic modulations

Single-cell CRISPR screens, Perturb-seq, have revolutionized functional genomics by revealing biological causality. However, although perturbation assignments are typically represented as discrete labels, the cell-level effective strength of perturbations is often continuous and diverse. Current analytical frameworks struggle to decouple the variability in perturbation strength from the diversity of downstream responses. Here, we present Perturbation Curve (PertCurve), a nonlinear, curve-based computational framework that models the trajectories of transcriptomic responses by explicitly incorporating diverse perturbation magnitudes and strengths. By ordering cells by perturbation strength, we demonstrate that PertCurve accurately recapitulates the response magnitudes and reveals the distinct modularity and asynchrony patterns of downstream gene behaviors. These patterns are categorized into archetypes, including proportional, sensitive, and threshold responses. By applying this framework across CRISPRi/a modalities, we identify universal response patterns in viral infection, apoptosis, and proliferation genes, and reveal previously overlooked context-specific regulatory features in cell differentiation. Finally, incorporating PertCurve into perturbation prediction models and evaluation metrics enhances predictive performance, delivering actionable insights for refining established models.

20.
bioRxiv (Bioinfo) 2026-06-11

DModE: An end-to-end framework for Differential Modification and Expression Analysis of Nanopore direct RNA sequencing data

Summary: Nanopore direct RNA sequencing (DRS) enables simultaneous quantification of transcript abundance and RNA modifications from native RNA molecules, providing a unique opportunity to study transcriptional and epitranscriptomic regulation within a single experiment. However, comprehensive analysis of DRS data remains challenging, as existing workflows typically focus on individual processing steps and often require manual integration of multiple software packages for expression analysis, modification detection, statistical testing, and visualization. Furthermore, integrated differential expression and differential RNA modification analysis at both gene and isoform resolution remains poorly supported by current workflows. Here, we present DModE (Differential Modification and Expression Analysis), an end-to-end framework for integrated analysis of Nanopore DRS data. DModE combines an Epi2ME-compatible Nextflow preprocessing workflow with a dedicated Python package for downstream statistical analysis, visualization, and reporting. The framework supports differential gene and isoform expression analysis, differential RNA modification analysis at genome and transcript level, metagene profiling, exploratory epitranscriptomic analyses, and integrated assessment of relationships between expression and modification dynamics. Results are automatically summarized in interactive HTML reports, facilitating reproducible and accessible data interpretation. By integrating transcriptomic and epitranscriptomic analyses within a single framework, DModE substantially simplifies comprehensive DRS data analysis and lowers the barrier for studying RNA modification biology using Nanopore sequencing.

21.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Machine Learning and the Random Walk Puzzle: Forecasting the CAD/USD Exchange Rate with Expanding Window Evaluation and SHAP Interpretability

arXiv:2606.15058v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: This study examines whether machine learning (ML) models can outperform the naive random walk benchmark in forecasting the monthly USD/CAD exchange rate. Using daily data from the Bank of Canada spanning January 2017 to May 2026, resampled into 113 monthly observations, five ML models are evaluated: linear regression, random forest, gradient boosting, XGBoost, and AdaBoost. These models are benchmarked against the naive random walk model and exponential smoothing with Holt-Winters seasonality (ETS). All models are evaluated using an expanding-window framework to maintain strict out-of-sample integrity, and forecast-accuracy differences are assessed using the Diebold-Mariano (DM) test. Structural break detection identifies four significant breakpoints in the series, corresponding to the escalation of the US-China trade war in 2018, the COVID-19 economic recovery in 2020, the peak of the Bank of Canada rate-hiking cycle in 2022, and the start of the Bank of Canada rate-cutting cycle in 2024. SHAP, or Shapley Additive Explanations, analysis is applied to interpret the drivers of the best-performing ML model. The results show that the naive random walk model remains a formidable benchmark. Linear regression is the only model that statistically outperforms the naive random walk model, with a DM statistic of 3.0585 and a p value of 0.0071, whereas the ML ensemble models show only marginal differences. Random Forest with an expanding-window framework achieves the lowest MAPE of 1.17 percent among all models except the random walk. SHAP analysis confirms that short-term lags, particularly lag1 and lag2, and recent rolling means dominate predictions, consistent with the near-random-walk behavior of exchange rates.

22.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-11

ConsistencyPlanner: Real-time Planning with Fast-Sampling Consistency Models

arXiv:2606.11569v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Closed-loop planning in complex, real-world driving scenarios presents a critical challenge for autonomous driving systems. While traditional rule-based methods are interpretable, their predefined heuristics lack the adaptability for dynamic traffic environments. Learning-based approaches have shown considerable promise. Conversely, learning-based approaches, despite their promise, struggle to balance the modeling diverse and multimodal driving behaviors and real-time planning, often leading to indecisive or unsafe actions. To address this limitation, we propose Consistency Planner, a real-time planning framework with fast-sampling consistency models. Our approach is built upon two key technical contributions. Efficient Multimodal Sampling: We employ fast-sampling consistency models to generate a diverse set of plausible future trajectories. This enables efficient, real-time exploration of multimodal actions, overcoming the computational bottlenecks of previous iterative generative methods. Heterogeneous Feature Fusion: We introduce an attention-enhanced decoder that dynamically integrates heterogeneous input features (including scene feature and action token) into a cohesive representation for robust planning. Extensive evaluation in the Waymax simulator demonstrates superior performance in safety metrics compared to existing methods, with particularly strong results in challenging dynamic scenarios.

23.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

When the Chain of Thought Knows Better: Failure Modes in Multi-Turn Reasoning Models

Failures in multi-turn reasoning models are largely invisible to terminal-score evaluation. A model can lock onto an unsafe stance early in a long dialogue, yet its final-turn refusal rate may appear indistinguishable from a robustly aligned baseline. To expose these hidden temporal dynamics, we propose a trace-level diagnostic - the CoT-Output 2x2 safety matrix. This framework labels every turn along two independent axes (internal reasoning and visible output), yielding four operationally defined failure cells: robust alignment, alignment faking, overt jailbreak, and a distinct failure mode we term context-injection failure (where the CoT maintains safe reasoning, but the visible output produces harm, highlighting a multi-turn manifestation of reasoning unfaithfulness). We evaluate three distilled reasoning targets against a fixed attacker across five oversight conditions, collecting 6750 turn-level observations on the Information-Hazard scenario. Our analysis reveals two reproducible vulnerabilities: an oversight paradox where explicit monitoring cues paradoxically increase alignment-faking rates rather than suppress them, and a context-injection failure where models lock onto unsafe external outputs despite safe internal states. We release the full dataset of multi-turn dialogues and CoT traces to support follow-up trace-diagnostic research.

24.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-15

A random approach to the multibonacci sequence

arXiv:2606.14294v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: This paper presents a random approach to the multibonacci sequence. We generalise the model introduced by Benjamin, Levin, Mahlburg, and Quinn, which is based on a random tiling method using dominoes and squares that leads to the Fibonacci sequence, and which was extended to the tribonacci case in a previous work by the authors. Our approach employs tiling with linear $k$-ominoes, $k=1,\ldots,s$, combined with specific colouring, to generate a weighted multibonacci sequence. For a natural random variable~$X$ defined by this model, we establish the distribution of $X$ in terms of multibonacci numbers and compute $\mathbb{E}[X] = 2^{s+1}-3$.

25.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-12

CPAM: Context-Preserving Adaptive Manipulation for Zero-Shot Real Image Editing

Editing natural images using textual descriptions in text-to-image diffusion models remains a significant challenge, particularly in achieving consistent generation and handling complex, non-rigid objects. Existing methods often struggle to preserve textures and identity, require extensive fine-tuning, and exhibit limitations in editing specific spatial regions or objects while retaining background details. This paper proposes Context-Preserving Adaptive Manipulation (CPAM), a novel zero-shot framework for complicated, non-rigid real image editing. Specifically, we propose a preservation adaptation module that adjusts self-attention mechanisms to preserve and independently control the object and background effectively. This ensures that the objects' shapes, textures, and identities are maintained while keeping the background undistorted during the editing process using the mask guidance technique. Additionally, we develop a localized extraction module to mitigate the interference with the non-desired modified regions during conditioning in cross-attention mechanisms. We also introduce various mask-guidance strategies to facilitate diverse image manipulation tasks in a simple manner. CPAM can be seamlessly integrated with multiple diffusion backbones, including SD1.5, SD2.1, and SDXL, demonstrating strong generalization across different model architectures. Extensive experiments on our newly constructed Image Manipulation BenchmArk (IMBA), a robust benchmark dataset specifically designed for real image editing, demonstrate that our proposed method is the preferred choice among human raters, outperforming existing state-of-the-art editing techniques. The source code and data will be publicly released at the project page: https://vdkhoi20.github.io/CPAM