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01.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

CentroidKV: Efficient Long-Context LLM Inference via KV Cache Clustering

Large language models (LLMs) with extended context windows have become increasingly prevalent for tackling complex tasks. However, the substantial Key-Value (KV) cache required for long-context LLMs poses significant deployment challenges. Existing approaches either discard potentially critical information needed for future generations or offer limited efficiency gains due to high computational overhead. In this paper, we introduce CentroidKV, a simple yet effective framework for online KV cache clustering. Our approach is based on the observation that key states exhibit high similarity along the sequence dimension. To enable efficient clustering, we divide the sequence into chunks and propose Chunked Soft Matching, which employs an alternating partition strategy within each chunk and identifies clusters based on similarity. CentroidKV then merges the KV cache within each cluster into a single centroid. Additionally, we provide a theoretical analysis of the computational complexity and the optimality of the intra-chunk partitioning strategy. Extensive experiments across various models and long-context benchmarks demonstrate that CentroidKV achieves up to 75% reduction in KV cache memory usage while maintaining comparable model performance. Moreover, with minimal computational overhead, CentroidKV accelerates the decoding stage of inference by up to $1.92\times$ and increases the serving throughput by up to $4\times$.

02.
Nature (Science) 2026-06-10

Amplified Arctic iceberg traffic reshapes benthic biodiversity

The Arctic is undergoing rapid warming, resulting in retreating sea ice and glaciers1, yet how cryospheric changes propagate into the deep ocean remains poorly understood2. Here we identify a climate-driven mechanism linking accelerating glacier disintegration to an increase in deep-sea hard-bottom habitats far beyond calving fronts. Seafloor observations in Fram Strait show a localized increase in the density and patchiness of dropstones delivered by debris-laden icebergs. At the same time, four decades of shipboard records show that the occurrence of icebergs increased abruptly in the early 2000s. Backtracking links these icebergs to the main outlet glaciers in northeast Greenland and the Russian High Arctic. In northeast Greenland, the timing of glacier destabilization coincides with this rise, whereas sparse satellite coverage in the Russian sector limits temporal attribution despite indications of enhanced glacier activity. A model sensitivity study shows that, apart from intensified calving, a more dynamic sea ice cover enhances downstream transport of glacial ice. Along these pathways, increased iceberg activity could reshape deep-sea habitats through enhanced melt and associated lithogenic input, and elevate navigational hazards as maritime traffic expands in the Arctic. Although modest compared with the iceberg discharges of Pleistocene Heinrich events, this mechanism provides a modern analogue of long-range cryospheric influence on the seafloor in a warming climate. Accelerated Arctic glacier disintegration and a more dynamic sea ice cover are increasing iceberg-delivered dropstones in the deep ocean, reshaping seafloor habitats and extending cryospheric impacts far beyond glaciers.

03.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

DifferAD-R1: A Difference-Guided IndustrialAnomaly Localization with Multimodal LargeLanguage Models

Industrial anomaly localization aims to accurately identify and localize abnormal regions in industrial products, addressing the critical challenge of detecting unseen defect categories in real-world scenarios. Traditional closed-set methods often suffer from poor cross-scenario generalization, while existingMultimodal Large Language Model (MLLM)-based approachesface two core limitations: they either adopt QA-style paradigmsmisaligned with the practical demands of localization, or relyon standard optimization techniques such as Group RelativePolicy Optimization (GRPO), which fails to deliver effectivelearning signals for subtle defects. To tackle these issues, thispaper proposes DifferAD-R1, an MLLM-augmented reinforcement learning framework tailored for industrial anomaly localization. We design a Difference-Guided dual-image paradigm,which reformulates the localization task as a one-shot difference grounding problem to effectively explore cross-scenarioanomalies. A Dual-Consistency Localization Reward is developedfor hard-to-detect anomalies, enhancing optimization stabilityand robustness. Additionally, we integrate a difficulty-awarestrategy with adaptive reweighting and group-wise resamplingto prioritize learning on challenging instances. To facilitateevaluations in real-world industrial settings, we construct theAD-DualDiff dataset, comprising 13K paired images across 20categories. Experimental results demonstrate that DifferADR1 significantly outperforms existing baselines and achievescompetitive performance compared to large-scale models likeQwen3-VL (235B parameters). Our code is publicly availableat: https://github.com/Rong2026/work-1.

04.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-11

Does the Question Really Matter? Training-Free Data Selection for Vision-Language SFT

arXiv:2603.09715v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Visual instruction tuning is crucial for improving vision-language large models (VLLMs). However, many samples can be solved via linguistic patterns or common-sense shortcuts, without genuine cross-modal reasoning, limiting the effectiveness of multimodal learning. Prior data selection methods often rely on costly proxy model training and focus on difficulty or diversity, failing to capture a sample's true contribution to vision-language joint reasoning. In this paper, we propose CVS, a training-free data selection method based on the insight that, for high-quality multimodal samples, introducing the question should substantially alter the model's assessment of answer validity given an image. CVS leverages a frozen VLLM as an evaluator and measures the discrepancy in answer validity with and without conditioning on the question, enabling the identification of samples that require vision-language joint reasoning while filtering semantic-conflict noise. Experiments on Vision-Flan and The Cauldron show that CVS achieves solid performance across datasets. On Vision-Flan, CVS outperforms full-data training by 3.5% and 4.8% using only 10% and 15% of the data, respectively, and remains robust on the highly heterogeneous Cauldron dataset. Moreover, CVS reduces computational cost by 17.3% and 44.4% compared to COINCIDE and XMAS.

05.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-24

Solving Inverse Problems of Chaotic Systems with Bidirectional Conditional Flow Matching

arXiv:2606.24824v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Modeling chaotic systems is crucial yet challenging. Inverse problems in chaotic dynamics, namely inferring initial conditions from final states, remain largely unsolved because of ill-posedness, non-uniqueness, instability, and potentially chaotic time-reverse dynamics. We address this open problem with Bidirectional Conditional Flow Matching (Bi-CFM), which learns bidirectional mappings between distributions of initial and final states to capture the stochasticity of chaotic evolution and mitigate exponential error accumulation over time. Furthermore, for systems with conservation laws, we extend it to Conservation-constrained Bi-CFM (CBi-CFM). Across the classic Lorenz, Circuit, and high-dimensional Lorenz 96 systems, Bi-CFM improves five distribution-level metrics over baselines while achieving a speedup of more than two orders of magnitude. In the three-body planet-planet scattering problem in planetary dynamics, CBi-CFM better respects conservation laws, with conservation errors comparable to those of the ground truth. Finally, on real observations of globular clusters, collisional million-body systems shaped by $\sim 10^{10}$ years (10 Gyr) of evolution, our method represents an advance in accuracy, establishing a scalable route to solving inverse problems of long-timescale real-world chaotic dynamics.

06.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-15

Overhead Wildlife Locator (OWL): Benchmarking Weakly Supervised Learning for Aerial Wildlife Surveys

Automated aerial wildlife surveys increasingly rely on deep learning, yet standard object detectors require bounding-box annotations, reported to be up to seven times slower and three times more expensive to produce than point-level labels. To address this bottleneck, we introduce the Overhead Wildlife Locator (OWL), a weakly supervised density-estimation framework with three variants: OWL-C, a fully convolutional model for high-throughput screening; OWL-T, a Swin-augmented hybrid for heterogeneous, cluttered scenes; and OWL-D, built on a frozen DINOv3 ViT-H+/16 encoder with a DPT-style fusion decoder. We benchmark all three against POLO, YOLOv11n, and YOLOv11l across five public aerial datasets, from sparse fixed-wing savanna surveys to dense UAV paddock imagery, and against the published HerdNet baseline on its native Delplanque split. OWL-D sets a new state of the art on Delplanque (0.934 AP vs. HerdNet's 0.840) and records the highest AP on four of the five datasets. Performance is regime-dependent: on the extreme-density SheepCounter UAV dataset the hybrid OWL-T leads (0.978 AP) and the convolutional variants attain the lowest counting error, whereas the foundation-based OWL-D degrades, indicating which variant suits which survey type. We further validate operational readiness on the Alaska Department of Fish and Game's 2022 Central Arctic Caribou census: under cross-herd and cross-temporal transfer, OWL-C fine-tuned on the 2017 Porcupine Caribou Herd split attains F1 = 0.965 on a held-out patch test set, with a signed count error of +3.1% aggregated across the released test patches. We release the OWL code, model weights, and the annotated Porcupine Caribou Herd 2017 (PCH) and Central Arctic Herd 2022 (CAH) patches, the first open patch-level datasets for large-scale caribou aerial surveys, at https://github.com/microsoft/MegaDetector-Overhead.

07.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-18

Budget-Aware Adaptive Adversarial Patches for Black-Box Object Detection

Adversarial patches pose a practical threat to modern object detectors. Prior work shows vulnerability, but three gaps limit actionable insight: (i) few score-based black-box attacks jointly optimize patch location, texture, and size under tight query budgets; (ii) success is rarely tied to the patch's visual footprint; and (iii) evaluations often conflate EOT robustness with plain-view suppression. We present \method{}, a query-efficient, budget-adaptive black-box attack that couples a lightweight Contextual Thompson-Sampling placer with NES-style pixel updates, growing the patch only when progress stalls. Reporting is anchored by a strict plain-image suppression test; EOT is audited but never used as a substitute for success, and optional appearance/printability weights expose strength–visibility trade-offs. Across YOLOv5, Faster R-CNN, and YOLOS, \method{} achieves strong suppression on CNN-based detectors and substantial suppression on the transformer-based detector, using compact patches and exposing clear query–footprint trade-offs relative to fixed-size and heuristic baselines. A print–capture pilot further shows transfer across unseen physical objects and viewpoints.

08.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

PACT: Privileged Trace Co-Training for Multi-Turn Tool-Use Agents

Multi-turn tool-use agents must reason, call tools, and adapt to observations across several interaction turns. Post-training such agents is challenging, as reinforcement learning often suffers from sparse rewards and weak credit assignment despite matching the prompt-only inference setting, while supervised fine-tuning on expert traces provides dense process supervision but can over-constrain the model to fixed trajectories. To tackle this, we propose PACT, a Privileged trAce Co-Training framework for multi-turn tool-use agents. The key idea is to use expert traces only as training-time optimization signals rather than rollout-time hints. PACT keeps rollout generation prompt-only, then uses expert traces to guide optimization through two complementary signals: a trace-conditioned RL surrogate that evaluates prompt-only rollouts under expert-trace context, and a component-aware SFT loss that supervises reasoning prefixes and tool-calls with annealed strength. To reduce over-reliance on the training-only trace context, PACT further introduces a prompt-only anchoring. We also provide a latent-trace view that connects the two trace-based objectives and explains how expert traces can guide optimization without being used during rollout generation. Experiments on FTRL, BFCL, and ToolHop show that PACT consistently improves over strong SFT- and RL-based baselines, highlighting the value of privileged trace co-training for multi-turn tool-use learning.

09.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-11

Mapping Scientific Literature with Large Language Models and Topic Modeling

Scientific literature is increasingly fragmented by disciplinary boundaries, specialized terminology, and potentially sparse keyword systems, making it difficult to capture the evolving structure of modern science. This study introduces a large language model (LLM)-driven framework for mapping scientific literature from a topic modeling perspective. The approach is demonstrated on a 20-year corpus of more than 1,500 engineering-related articles published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS). A two-stage classification pipeline first assigns a primary thematic category to each article based on its abstract, followed by full-text analysis to identify secondary classifications that reveal latent cross-topic connections within the corpus. Unlike conventional topic models, the LLM-based framework produces semantically interpretable topics while maintaining strong quantitative performance. Comparative evaluation against established topic modeling methods shows higher topic diversity and lower overlap with competitive coherence metrics. Manual validation on a randomly sampled subset of abstracts yields an accuracy of 75.9%. Additional traditional natural language processing analyses confirm that the generated topics correspond to meaningful linguistic patterns in the corpus. A bipartite network linking primary and secondary classifications further reveals implicit thematic relationships that are not readily observable through abstracts or keyword systems alone. The findings indicate that the framework independently recovers much of the journal's editorial dual-classification structure without prior knowledge of its schema. Overall, the proposed approach offers a powerful tool for mapping science and identifying emerging cross-topic connections in research.

11.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-24

M4-SAR: A Multi-Resolution, Multi-Polarization, Multi-Scene, Multi-Source Dataset and Benchmark for optical-SAR Object Detection

Single-source remote sensing object detection using optical or SAR images struggles in complex environments. Optical images offer rich textural details but are often affected by low-light, cloud-obscured, or low-resolution conditions, reducing the detection performance. SAR images are robust to weather, but suffer from speckle noise and limited semantic expressiveness. Optical and SAR images provide complementary advantages, and fusing them can significantly improve the detection accuracy. However, progress in this field is hindered by the lack of large-scale, standardized datasets. To address these challenges, we propose a new comprehensive dataset for optical-SAR fusion object detection, named Multi-resolution, Multi-polarization, Multi-scene, Multi-source SAR dataset (M4-SAR). It contains 112,174 instance-level aligned image pairs and nearly one million labeled instances with arbitrary orientations, spanning six key categories. To enable standardized evaluation, we develop a unified benchmarking toolkit that integrates six state-of-the-art multi-source fusion methods. Additionally, we propose E2E-OSDet, a novel end-to-end multi-source fusion detection framework that mitigates cross-domain discrepancies and establishes a robust baseline for future studies. Extensive experiments on M4-SAR demonstrate that fusing optical and SAR data can improve mAP by 5.7\% over single-source inputs, with particularly significant gains in complex environments. The dataset and code are publicly available at https://github.com/wchao0601/M4-SAR.

12.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-16

The Ornstein$-$Uhlenbeck process on $\mathscr P_2$ with a volatility operator

arXiv:2606.14917v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We analyze a diffusion ${(\mu_t)}_{t\geq 0}$ on the $2$-Wasserstein space $\mathscr P_2$ over $\mathbb R^d$ for which \begin{equation*} |\mu_t|_2^2-|\mu_0|_2^2-2ct+2\int_0 ^t|\mu_s|_2^2\,d s,\qquad t\geq 0, \end{equation*} is a martingale, where the constant $c\in(0,\infty)$ equals the trace of a volatility operator on a Hilbert space and $|\mu_t|_2:=(\int_{\mathbb R^d}x^T x\mu_t(d x ))^{1/2}$. The invariant measure of ${(\mu_t)}_{t\geq 0}$ is a Gaussian on $\mathscr P_2$, as introduced by P. Ren and F.-Y. Wang. Moreover, the Dirichlet form and its generator are given explicitly on a dense subspace of $L^2$.

13.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-11

TimeRouter: Efficient and Adaptive Routing of Time-Series Foundation Models

arXiv:2606.11625v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Time-series foundation models (TSFMs) are increasingly explored as predictive experts within emerging agentic time-series systems. However, TSFMs exhibit heterogeneous inductive biases, and no single model consistently dominates across forecasting regimes, making expert selection a critical challenge. Existing systems often delegate this decision to LLM-based controllers, incurring substantial inference overhead. We present TimeRouter, an efficient routing framework that leverages empirical complementarity across a pool of pretrained TSFMs through lightweight discriminative routing, selective gating, and ensemble fallback. Concretely, TimeRouter combines a learned routing head, a selective gate, and an ensemble fallback, enabling adaptive expert selection without invoking an LLM at inference time. TimeRouter achieves state-of-the-art performance on the GIFT-EVAL leaderboard, with an LB MASE of 0.6765. Beyond benchmark performance, our ablation studies provide empirical insights into TSFM routing design, highlighting the importance of pool composition and selective gating. Taken together, these results position TimeRouter as a modular and lightweight routing layer for future agentic time-series systems built upon foundation-model pools. Our code is available at https://github.com/UConn-DSIS/TimeRouter.

14.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-12

DuET: Dual Expert Trajectories for Diffusion Image Editing

Recent diffusion editors perform diverse instruction-based edits while conditioning on the source image at every denoising step. Yet persistent source-image conditioning can limit how fully an edit is executed and how natural the result appears, especially when the target scene diverges substantially from the input. We introduce DuET (Dual Expert Trajectories), a training-free inference method that temporarily relaxes source-image conditioning by transitioning through a text-to-image phase before returning to edit mode, allowing the denoising trajectory to move toward the target distribution while retaining the structural benefits of image-conditioned editing. Without modifying model weights or increasing sampling cost, DuET consistently improves instruction relevance, semantic fidelity, and perceptual quality across diverse models and benchmarks. In some cases, these gains come with a modest reduction in source-image preservation, revealing a predictable trade-off between source preservation and edit fidelity.

15.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

A Zero-shot Generalized Graph Anomaly Detection Framework via Node Reconstruction

arXiv:2606.12673v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Cross-domain graph anomaly detection (GAD) aims to identify abnormal nodes in unseen target graphs, showing strong potential in real-world applications with heterogeneous graph data. However, existing methods often depend on dataset-specific feature semantics and structural patterns, which limits their ability to generalize across different domains. To address this challenge, we propose AlignGAD, a zero-shot generalized graph anomaly detection framework. Our framework is built upon three key components: a Global Unification Module that aligns heterogeneous node features and normalizes graph signals in the spectral domain; a Clustering Module that constructs cluster-aware graph views to capture group-level abnormal patterns; and a Node Discrepancy Scoring Module that measures reconstruction discrepancy and aggregates anomaly evidence from different graph views. Experiments on multiple real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of AlignGAD under the zero-shot GAD setting.

16.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-17

Recursive Learning Without Collapse: A Weighting-Based Stabilization Framework

arXiv:2502.18049v5 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Recent studies identified an intriguing phenomenon in recursive generative model training known as model collapse, where models trained on data generated by previous models exhibit severe performance degradation. Addressing this issue and developing more effective training strategies have become central challenges in generative model research. In this paper, we investigate this phenomenon within a novel framework, where generative models are iteratively trained on a combination of newly collected real data and synthetic data from the previous training step. To develop an optimal training strategy for integrating real and synthetic data, we evaluate the performance of a weighted training scheme in various scenarios, including Gaussian distribution estimation, generalized linear models, and nonparametric estimation. We theoretically characterize the impact of the mixing proportion and weighting scheme of synthetic data on the final model's performance. Our key finding is that, across different settings, the optimal weighting scheme under different proportions of synthetic data asymptotically follows a unified expression, revealing a fundamental trade-off between leveraging synthetic data and model performance. In some cases, the optimal weight assigned to real data corresponds to the reciprocal of the golden ratio. Finally, we validate our theoretical results on extensive simulated datasets and a real tabular dataset.

17.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-12

Aerial Wildfire Suppression Planning with a Hybrid CNN-Cellular Automata Fire Model

arXiv:2606.13633v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Aerial wildfire suppression requires not only predicting fire spread, but also designing effective intervention strategies under operational and environmental uncertainty. We present a modeling and optimization framework for aerial wildfire suppression that combines a hybrid neural-cellular automaton wildfire model with gradient-based design of targeted aerial drops. The wildfire model predicts spatially varying spread behavior from terrain, fuel, and wind data, while the intervention module determines binary drop actions with continuous-valued location and orientation parameters mapped to the simulation grid. Water and retardant are represented with distinct suppression effects, corresponding to immediate reduction of active burning and persistent reduction of future spread. To evaluate the robustness of the resulting suppression plans, we quantify both aleatoric uncertainty through Monte Carlo sampling of daily fire-state realizations and epistemic uncertainty through spatially correlated prediction-error perturbations. A case study based on the 2020 Bear Fire shows that the framework can generate coherent aerial suppression schedules for reducing total fire-affected area and can support uncertainty-aware analysis of wildfire intervention strategies.

18.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

GraphBEV++: Multi-Modal Feature Alignment for Autonomous Driving

Feature misalignment in BEV perception is a critical yet often overlooked challenge in autonomous driving, especially under calibration uncertainties between LiDAR and camera sensors. To address this issue, we propose a robust multi-modal fusion framework, GraphBEV++, which systematically mitigates projection-induced misalignment. The framework consists of two key modules: LocalAlign-v2 and GlobalAlign-v2. LocalAlign-v2 introduces neighborhood-aware depth features via graph matching to correct local misalignment. It supports both LSS-based and query-based BEV representations, making it compatible with BEVFusion and BEVFormer architectures for consistent cross-paradigm alignment. GlobalAlign-v2 encompasses two variants: Deformable and Diffusion. The Deformable variant addresses global misalignment in LSS-based multi-modal BEV by explicitly learning cross-modal feature offsets. In contrast, the Diffusion variant targets implicit misalignment in query-based BEV by injecting noise to simulate misalignment and employing a denoising process to recover aligned features. Experimental results show that GraphBEV++ achieves state-of-the-art performance under misalignment noise on nuScenes and Waymo subset, improves long-range detection on Argoverse2, and generalizes effectively to the 3D occupancy prediction task, consistently improving occupancy estimation accuracy and robustness under both clean and noisy settings. Furthermore, GraphBEV++ effectively alleviates misalignment issues in end-to-end autonomous driving. Compared with five baselines (UniAD, VAD, FusionAD, MomAD, and WoTE), it demonstrates superior performance in both open-loop (nuScenes) and closed-loop (Bench2Drive and NAVSIM) evaluations across perception, prediction, and planning tasks.

19.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-24

Decentralized Coordination of Autonomous Traffic Through Advanced Air Mobility Corridors

arXiv:2606.23832v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: The use of dedicated corridors for Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) traffic is one of the most commonly proposed pathways to integrating them into existing airspace operations. Most prior research has focused on the design of networks of AAM corridors and conflict resolution for aircraft within corridors. It is also generally believed that while attractive from an implementation perspective, corridor-based operations may be inefficient, especially in the absence of centralized traffic management. In this paper, we show that contrary to this belief, it is possible for autonomous aircraft to learn to self-organize into corridor flows in decentralized settings. We illustrate our approach using scenarios in which fixed-wing aircraft need to safely and efficiently traverse (1) a single corridor with metering after the exit, (2) a sequence of two consecutive corridors, and (3) a corridor that splits into two. We find that in decentralized settings with only local information, the aircraft are able to conform to the corridor boundaries more than 94% of the time and reach their goal in a relatively efficient manner. Furthermore, tactical interventions to handle violations of the separation minimum are needed only infrequently in low- and medium-density settings. However, such tactical interventions become more frequently necessary only when traffic density is high.

20.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19

FloatDoor: Platform-Triggered Backdoors in LLMs

arXiv:2606.19535v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in sensitive settings such as software engineering, where their outputs directly shape downstream artifacts. Recent work has shown that an identical model can produce measurably different outputs depending on the deployment platform, a consequence of non-associative floating-point arithmetic and divergent kernel implementations. We study the security implications of this platform-dependent variability and uncover a novel attack surface on LLM deployments. We introduce FloatDoor, the first input-independent, platform-triggered backdoor attack against generative LLMs. The compromised model exhibits adversary-chosen behavior when served on a target platform and is otherwise benign. FloatDoor is realized through two lightweight LoRA adapters, one that amplifies inter-platform numerical divergence and one that binds the resulting platform signature to a malicious downstream task, while leaving aggregate model utility largely intact. FloatDoor exploits a pronounced time-of-check, time-of-use gap between model auditing and serving. We demonstrate FloatDoor on Qwen3-4B across a broad range of deployment targets, including NVIDIA GPUs, Google TPUs, AWS Graviton, and Alibaba Yitian-710. As a final case study, we show that FloatDoor reliably induces exploitable code vulnerabilities on a chosen target platform. Our results establish a new class of attacks on LLM deployments and underscore the pressing need for trusted model supply chains in sensitive, LLM-powered applications.

21.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Assessing Predictive Models for Fairness Based on Movement Patterns

arXiv:2605.23234v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Assessing the spatial fairness of predictive models involves establishing whether they are statistically penalizing (favoring) individuals associated with certain geographical locations. Literature on this topic makes the fundamental assumption that each individual is assigned to a single geographical location (e.g., place of residence). However, fairness with respect to the set of locations where one has been, i.e., their movement patterns over different regions, also matters when fairness is considered. Consequently, we argue that it is necessary to generalize the notion of spatial fairness to also include movement patterns, leading to the novel problem of assessing predictive models for fairness relative to the movements of individuals. To deal with this problem, we propose an approach that first associates the movements of individuals to certain geographic regions, considering multiple spatial partitions with different resolutions and alignments, and then employs a suitable spatial scan statistic to assess whether a predictive model is fair based on movement patterns. In the experimental evaluation, we study the performance of our approach over thousands of synthetic unfair datasets, showing that it is effective at detecting this new type of unfairness and at retrieving the set of objects treated unfairly, while localization performance exhibits a consistent multi-resolution trade-off.

22.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-12

One Step Closer to Ground Truth: A Multi-Scale Residual-Aware Representation Learning Pipeline for Predicting Time Series Data

arXiv:2606.10678v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Transformer-based models have emerged as leading paradigms in time-series forecasting in recent years, employing self-attention mechanisms to capture long-range dependencies. Despite their success, these single-stage forecasting architectures exhibit persistent systematic residual biases arising from structural discrepancies, unmodeled stochastic components, or inadequate multi-scale temporal representations. This limitation persists when residuals are treated as irreducible noise, precluding adaptive correction of structured error patterns. To address this limitation, we introduce a two-stage, model-agnostic framework that explicitly decouples forecasting and residual learning into distinct stages of representation learning. A base transformer first generates the initial predictions. Subsequently, a dedicated meta-corrector dynamically models structured error patterns across multivariate channels, preserves cross-variable dependencies, and iteratively refines the residual bias of the base transformer. By formalizing this pipeline as a hypothesis space expansion, our framework addresses approximation limitations inherent in single-stage architectures, removes reliance on restrictive assumptions, and enables end-to-end learning of complex error dynamics. Evaluated on eight popular benchmark datasets using established protocols, our approach achieves state-of-the-art performance, with significant improvements in standard metrics (MSE, MAE). The results demonstrate the framework's ability to mitigate systematic biases and enhance robustness to complex temporal dynamics, advancing the practical applicability of transformer-based forecasting models.

23.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-17

All Smoke, No Alarm: Oracle Signals in Agent-Authored Test Code

arXiv:2606.18168v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Software practitioners increasingly use AI coding agents that generate test code alongside production code in open source pull requests (PRs). Recent studies report more than 932,000 agent-authored PRs across more than 116,000 repositories, yet whether their test files contain meaningful verification logic remains underexplored. Test files lacking explicit assertions execute code without verifying behavior, so quality gates based on test-file presence overestimate verification strength. The goal of this paper is to help practitioners assess the verification strength of agent-authored patches by characterizing oracle signals and their link to merge outcomes and review effort. We conduct an empirical study of 86,156 test-file patches from 33,596 agent-authored PRs across 2,807 GitHub repositories produced by five coding agents: OpenAI Codex, GitHub Copilot, Devin, Cursor, and Claude Code. A qualitative analysis of 384 stratified patches informs a syntactic taxonomy of eight oracle signal categories. Applied at scale, 80.2% of test patches contain weak or no explicit oracle signals. While raw merge rates are lower for strong-oracle PRs, a regression analysis adjusting for agent, PR size, repository popularity, task type, and language shows strong oracles significantly improve merge likelihood (OR = 1.28, p < 0.001). Our findings suggest that test file counts substantially overestimate verification strength and that practitioners can adopt oracle-aware quality checks to more accurately evaluate agent-authored contributions.

24.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-16

A tree-free approach to 3D Yang-Mills Langevin dynamic. Analytic estimates and the existence of a model for a regularity structure

arXiv:2605.14616v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Using the multi-index approach to regularity structures due to F. Otto et al., we construct a regularity structure and a model for it associated to the stochastic Langevin equation for the 3D Euclidean Yang-Mills functional. For the model we also obtain global stochastic and global pointwise weighted Besov type estimates which hold almost surely. The model is defined as a limit of a sequence of smooth models introduced with the help of a mollified noise. When the mollification is removed the sequence converges in a certain topology defined with the help of the stochastic estimates. To obtain these results we develop the multi-index approach for systems of equations with vector-valued white noises. This project is motivated by the problem for constructing 3D Euclidean Yang-Mills measure and by the earlier results of the author on the related problem of canonical quantization of the Yang-Mills field on the Minkowski space.

25.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-24

Predictive variational inference: Learn the predictively optimal posterior distribution

arXiv:2410.14843v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Vanilla variational inference finds an optimal approximation to the Bayesian posterior distribution, but even the exact Bayesian posterior is often not meaningful under model misspecification. We propose predictive variational inference (PVI): a general inference framework that seeks and samples from an optimal posterior density such that the resulting posterior predictive distribution is as close to the true data generating process as possible, while this closeness is measured by multiple scoring rules. By optimizing the objective, the predictive variational inference is generally not the same as, or even attempting to approximate, the Bayesian posterior, even asymptotically. Rather, we interpret it as implicit hierarchical expansion. Further, the learned posterior uncertainty detects heterogeneity of parameters among the population, enabling automatic model diagnosis. This framework applies to both likelihood-exact and likelihood-free models. We demonstrate its application in real data examples.