Explore the Frontier of Global Academia

01.

Nature (Science) 2026-06-22 DOI: HASH:5c9837b475e0a18faba3609cfcb18315

Why heritage sites are at risk in a warming world — and how to save them

Authors:

William Megarry↗

As rising seas and intensifying disasters threaten historic sites worldwide, new ways to understand, preserve and adapt these places are needed urgently. As rising seas and intensifying disasters threaten historic sites worldwide, new ways to understand, preserve and adapt these places are needed urgently.

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02.

bioRxiv (Bioinfo) 2026-06-11 DOI: HASH:6b752f4c6ba911b6dc514c9dee2dc163

Calibrated Uncertainty Quantification for Patient-Level AML Drug Sensitivity Prediction Using Split Conformal Prediction

Authors:

Shokrzadeh↗A. J↗

Accurate prediction of ex vivo drug sensitivity in acute myeloid leukemia (AML) patients from transcriptomic data is a critical challenge for precision oncology. Existing computational approaches have explored uncertainty quantification in cancer drug response prediction primarily using cell line data, while patient-level AML models typically rely on heuristic confidence measures rather than statistically calibrated uncertainty estimates. Here, we present a framework applying split conformal prediction to patient-level AML drug response modeling using the BeatAML 2.0 cohort. We trained Elastic Net and XGBoost regressors on bulk RNA-seq gene expression profiles from 318 AML patients, analyzing 34,764 patient-drug observations across 122 compounds. Baseline models achieved median Pearson R values of 0.291 (Elastic Net) and 0.281 (XGBoost) across 122 drugs. Wrapping these models with split conformal prediction yielded well-calibrated prediction intervals across three confidence levels: empirical coverages of 81.4%, 90.7%, and 95.5% against nominal targets of 80%, 90%, and 95%, respectively. Analysis of prediction interval widths revealed substantial drug-class-specific uncertainty patterns, with HDAC and BCL-2 inhibitors exhibiting markedly higher uncertainty than MDM2 inhibitors, suggesting a potential association between transcriptomic predictability and drug mechanism of action, although several drug classes were represented by only a small number of compounds. Predictive uncertainty was not significantly associated with ELN2017 molecular risk classification (Kruskal-Wallis p=0.395) or NPM1 mutation status (p=0.788). These results demonstrate that statistically valid uncertainty quantification can be achieved for patient-level AML drug response prediction despite substantial biological heterogeneity. to the best of our knowledge, no published study has applied split conformal prediction to patient-level ex vivo drug sensitivity prediction in the BeatAML cohort, providing a principled alternative to heuristic confidence scoring approaches. Keywords: Acute myeloid leukemia (AML); Ex vivo drug sensitivity; Conformal prediction; Uncertainty quantification; Precision oncology; BeatAML; Transcriptomic biomarkers; Machine learning.

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03.

arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-25 DOI: arXiv:2606.25745

Gaussian Mean Field Variational Inference can Overestimate Predictive Variance

Authors:

James Odgers↗Ben Riegler↗Siddharth Swaroop↗Vincent Fortuin↗

arXiv:2606.25745v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Mean Field Variational Inference (MFVI) is widely understood to underestimate posterior variance. By analysing conjugate Bayesian Linear Regression (BLR), we show that this characterization is incomplete: while MFVI underestimates the variance in parameter space, it can overestimate the predictive variance compared to the exact posterior. We show that if the MFVI posterior underestimates predictive variances in some directions, it necessarily overestimates them in others. Crucially, this overestimation occurs in directions where the training data concentrates. This leads to the surprising result that, for a test point drawn from the training distribution, MFVI's expected predictive variance exceeds that of the exact posterior. We demonstrate a pathological case of this effect, where the MFVI posterior fails to reduce predictive variance compared to the prior on in distribution data. We connect these results to the Cold Posterior Effect, arguing that varying the temperature can correct this overestimation, yielding predictions closer to those of the exact posterior. We validate our theory on synthetic and real-world regression tasks.

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04.

arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16 DOI: arXiv:2606.15225

Edu-Theater: A Data-Efficient Agent Framework for Scalable Learner Behavior Simulation through Staging Roll-Call

Authors:

Weibo Gao↗Qi Liu↗Linan Yue↗Zheng Zhang↗Yichao Du↗Fangzhou Yao↗Ao Yu↗Zhenya Huang↗Shijin Wang↗

arXiv:2606.15225v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large-scale learner-task interaction data are crucial for intelligent educational systems but are costly to collect and constrained by privacy and learner engagement. Learner simulators play a critical role in simulating scalable learner behavior without the need for continuous involvement of real learners. However, existing methods are predominantly individual-centric, pairing a simulator with each learner to iteratively infer latent knowledge states from dense interaction histories, which is both data- and computation-intensive, and fragile in cold-start scenarios. We propose a cohort-aware roll-call simulation paradigm that first constructs cohort-level proficiency priors and refines individual learner states through a small number of targeted diagnostic queries. Based on this paradigm, we introduce Edu-Theater, an LLM-powered agent system that performs cohort-aware learner simulation via a teacher agent and retrospective roll-call probing over learner logs. Edu-Theater enables scalable future behavior simulation without the need for dense per-learner histories. Experiments on two real-world datasets demonstrate that Edu-Theater achieves higher simulation accuracy with significantly fewer LLM calls, producing synthetic data that enhances downstream applications such as adaptive testing.

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05.

arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-15 DOI: arXiv:2604.04611

Dynamic Free-Rider Detection in Federated Learning via Simulated Attack Patterns

Authors:

Motoki Nakamura↗

arXiv:2604.04611v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Federated learning (FL) enables multiple clients to collaboratively train a global model by aggregating local updates without sharing private data. However, FL often faces the challenge of free-riders, clients who submit fake model parameters without performing actual training to obtain the global model without contributing. Chen et al. proposed a free-rider detection method based on the weight evolving frequency (WEF) of model parameters. This detection approach is a leading candidate for practical free-rider detection methods, as it requires neither a proxy dataset nor pre-training. Nevertheless, it struggles to detect ``dynamic'' free-riders who behave honestly in early rounds and later switch to free-riding, particularly under global-model-mimicking attacks such as the delta weight attack and our newly proposed adaptive WEF-camouflage attack. In this paper, we propose a novel detection method S2-WEF that simulates the WEF patterns of potential global-model-based attacks on the server side using previously broadcasted global models, and identifies clients whose submitted WEF patterns resemble the simulated ones. To handle a variety of free-rider attack strategies, S2-WEF further combines this simulation-based similarity score with a deviation score computed from mutual comparisons among submitted WEFs, and separates benign and free-rider clients by two-dimensional clustering and per-score classification. This method enables dynamic detection of clients that transition into free-riders during training without proxy datasets or pre-training. We conduct extensive experiments across three datasets and five attack types, demonstrating that S2-WEF achieves higher robustness than existing approaches.

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06.

arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-18 DOI: arXiv:2606.18886

DINO-Med3D: Bridging Dimension and Domain Gaps in Volumetric Segmentation via Progressive Adaptation

Authors:

Haoyu Hu↗Xiyao Ma↗Shiqi Liu↗Linsen Zhang↗Xiaoliang Xie↗Xiaohu Zhou↗Zeng-Guang Hou↗

Although DINOv3 has demonstrated remarkable semantic discrimination in natural imagery, its direct application to volumetric medical segmentation is hindered by inherent dimension and domain disparities. To resolve these issues, we propose DINO-Med3D, a two-stage progressive framework that repurpose the pre-trained DINOv3 encoder for 3D medical tasks. In the first stage, we mitigate the dimension gap by introducing a multi-slice embedding module that incorporates pseudo-3D context, while simultaneously employing a segmentation proxy task to adapt representations learned from natural scenes to the medical domain. Subsequently, we further enhance volumetric understanding by adding lightweight 3D adapters into the frozen backbone to enforce global inter-slice continuity. Finally, to compensate for the spatial information loss inherent in the embedding process, we design a parallel detail recovery stream to explicitly preserve high-frequency boundary cues. Extensive experiments on five public datasets demonstrate that our approach successfully adapts DINOv3 to the medical domain and significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines.

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07.

arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-11 DOI: arXiv:2606.11417

Signed Compression Progress on a Sealed Audit is Goodhart-Resistant

Authors:

Ayush Mittal↗Dhruv Gupta↗

arXiv:2606.11417v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Compression progress is a long-standing proposal for intrinsic motivation: reward an agent when its world model becomes better at predicting or compressing experience. The folk claim is that this reward is "credible" because it is paid only for learning. We make this precise and prove it. If intrinsic reward is the signed decrease of a fixed sealed-audit loss, r_t = E(theta_{t-1}) - E(theta_t), then cumulative reward telescopes exactly to endpoint audit improvement, so no policy can push reward up indefinitely while true audit performance stagnates or degrades. For finite audit panels the same result holds with a sharp false-positive budget: cumulative empirical reward is at most true audit improvement plus 2 Delta_n(F, delta), the uniform audit deviation of the model class. This is horizon-free: adaptivity over time costs nothing once the sealed panel uniformly controls the class. The theorem also identifies the failure modes: the guarantee disappears if progress is clipped, scored on the agent's own stream, exposed to a high-capacity model on a reusable panel, or applied to a neural class that makes Delta_n vacuous. We give a Lean 4 mechanization of the structural core (telescoping, the finite-audit bound, finite Gibbs, and the entropy floor) and an experiment suite on ARC-TGI grid-transformation generators with adaptive holdout attacks. Experiments confirm the theory: finite-audit deviation scales as n^{-0.527}; signed progress resists clip-farming, stream leakage, and noisy-TV curiosity; naive reusable audits are exploitable by black-box scalar feedback, while standard release defenses keep the attack below the 2 Delta_n threshold. Signed compression progress on a sealed audit is an accounting signal of genuine improvement.

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08.

arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16 DOI: arXiv:2606.16354

GraphBEV++: Multi-Modal Feature Alignment for Autonomous Driving

Authors:

Ziying Song↗Caiyan Jia↗Lin Liu↗Shaoqing Xu↗Lei Yang↗Yadan Luo↗

Feature misalignment in BEV perception is a critical yet often overlooked challenge in autonomous driving, especially under calibration uncertainties between LiDAR and camera sensors. To address this issue, we propose a robust multi-modal fusion framework, GraphBEV++, which systematically mitigates projection-induced misalignment. The framework consists of two key modules: LocalAlign-v2 and GlobalAlign-v2. LocalAlign-v2 introduces neighborhood-aware depth features via graph matching to correct local misalignment. It supports both LSS-based and query-based BEV representations, making it compatible with BEVFusion and BEVFormer architectures for consistent cross-paradigm alignment. GlobalAlign-v2 encompasses two variants: Deformable and Diffusion. The Deformable variant addresses global misalignment in LSS-based multi-modal BEV by explicitly learning cross-modal feature offsets. In contrast, the Diffusion variant targets implicit misalignment in query-based BEV by injecting noise to simulate misalignment and employing a denoising process to recover aligned features. Experimental results show that GraphBEV++ achieves state-of-the-art performance under misalignment noise on nuScenes and Waymo subset, improves long-range detection on Argoverse2, and generalizes effectively to the 3D occupancy prediction task, consistently improving occupancy estimation accuracy and robustness under both clean and noisy settings. Furthermore, GraphBEV++ effectively alleviates misalignment issues in end-to-end autonomous driving. Compared with five baselines (UniAD, VAD, FusionAD, MomAD, and WoTE), it demonstrates superior performance in both open-loop (nuScenes) and closed-loop (Bench2Drive and NAVSIM) evaluations across perception, prediction, and planning tasks.

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09.

arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16 DOI: arXiv:2605.26290

Dynamic Link Prediction with Temporally Enhanced Signed Graph Neural Networks

Authors:

Derek Regier↗Andrew Polyak↗Aresh Dadlani↗Khosro Salmani↗

arXiv:2605.26290v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Temporal signed networks (TSNs) model the time evolution of cooperative and adversarial relationships that arise in applications such as social media analysis, trust and reputation systems, and financial transaction networks. While graph neural networks (GNNs) perform well for static or unsigned link prediction, effective learning in temporal signed graphs remains challenging due to the interaction of signed relations, evolving structure, and balance-theoretic constraints. To address this gap, we propose a modular temporal enhancement framework for signed GNNs that integrates historical context into otherwise static architectures. The framework introduces a Historical Context Integration Module (HCIM) that combines learnable recency-aware temporal weighting, LSTM-based embedding trajectory modeling, and multi-head temporal attention to capture both short- and long-term signed interaction dynamics. Historical information is fused with current node representations using either global or node-adaptive weighting, allowing the architecture-agnostic framework to accommodate heterogeneous temporal behaviors. We instantiate the approach on the Self-Explainable Signed Graph Transformer (SE-SGformer), preserving interpretability while extending it with temporal awareness. Experiments on real-world and synthetic TSNs, including Bitcoin OTC, Bitcoin Alpha, Reddit, and small-world network models, demonstrate consistent and statistically significant improvements over the static baseline.

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10.

medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-23 DOI: HASH:dcc61ceab9608a357c4ca5a36d3e1184

Estimating vaccine-prevented disease outcomes when vaccination has only direct effects

Authors:

Yang↗Magee↗Morris↗S. E↗Mathis↗S. M↗Wiegand↗Iuliano↗D. A↗Biggerstaff↗Olesen↗S. W↗…

Vaccination can be a useful intervention for reducing infectious disease burden. Estimating numbers of vaccine-prevented health outcomes is one approach to quantifying the benefits of vaccination. Here we improve a method described by Foppa et al. (1) that assumes vaccination has only direct effects, that is, it cannot prevent infection or onward transmission of the disease. We rederive this method and derive an improved method that increases estimation accuracy with minimal additional analytical complexity. To evaluate the improved method, we simulated disease outbreaks and compared the accuracy of the two methods for estimating prevented disease outcomes. In 84% of simulations performed over a wide parameter space, the improved method had an equal or smaller estimation error compared to the original Foppa method, with 7.9-fold smaller mean error and 44-fold smaller standard deviation of errors. Our study improves a method for estimating prevented burden when assuming vaccination has only direct effects.

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11.

arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-18 DOI: arXiv:2606.18650

BLADE: Scalable Bi-level Adaptive Data Selection for LLM Training

Authors:

Jiaxing Wang↗Deping Xiang↗Jin Xu↗Zirui Liu↗Zicheng Zhang↗Guoqiang Gong↗Jun Fang↗Chao Liu↗Pengzhang Liu↗Tongxuan Liu↗Ke Zhang↗Qixia Jiang↗…

arXiv:2606.18650v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: As Large Language Model (LLM) datasets scale to trillions of tokens, data selection has emerged as a critical frontier to filter out uninformative noise and construct adaptive learning trajectories. Beyond static heuristic filtering, advanced data selection methods for LLM training largely follow two paradigms, each with fundamental limitations. Influence-based methods provide principled bi-level objectives but require intractable inverse-Hessian computations, while excess-loss methods are computationally efficient but rely on a static reference model that becomes misaligned with the evolving proxy model during training. We propose BLADE (Bi-Level Adaptive Data sElection), a Hessian-free framework for data selection. BLADE reformulates the bi-level optimization problem underlying influence-based methods as a penalized single-level objective via Lagrange multipliers, avoiding inverse-Hessian computation while revealing a principled connection to excess-loss based data selection. The resulting objective recovers an excess-loss form but replaces the static reference model with a dynamic one that stays synchronized with training. Theoretically, we prove that this penalized formulation guarantees first-order convergence. For efficient online batch selection, we instantiate BLADE as a memoryless randomized block-coordinate Frank-Wolfe algorithm. Extensive experiments show that BLADE consistently outperforms state-of-the-art data selection baselines, providing a practical recipe for LLM training.

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12.

arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-12 DOI: arXiv:2606.12849

SemanticXR: Low Power and Real-time Queryable Semantic Mapping with an Object-Level Device-Cloud Architecture

Authors:

Rahul Singh↗Devdeep Ray↗Connor Smith↗Sarita Adve↗

Semantic mapping is a core service that enables grounded interactions in emerging Extended Reality (XR) applications such as AI assistants and spatial object search. Deploying this capability on mobile XR devices requires a system that is open-vocabulary, real-time, and low-power. Existing approaches are compute-intensive and assume server-class resources. Cloud offloading offers a practical path, but no existing system splits semantic mapping across the device-cloud boundary or manages its communication, execution, and memory footprint. We present SemanticXR, the first device-cloud system for real-time, open-vocabulary semantic mapping and querying under XR power, bandwidth, and memory constraints. Our key insight is to elevate semantically identifiable objects to first-class units of communication, execution, and memory across the device and server. On the server, object-level parallelism and geometry downsampling improve mapping latency, while object-level depth-mapping co-design reduces upstream bandwidth. On the device, an object-level sparse local map with incremental updates and update prioritization enables network-robust querying with bounded memory and downstream bandwidth. Object-level configurable resource usage vs. quality trade-offs let applications and the system adapt mapping to application requirements and operating conditions, respectively. Against a device-cloud baseline with the same perception models, object-level organization improves server-side mapping latency by 2.2X at equal semantic quality. Depth-mapping co-design maintains upstream bandwidth under 2.5 Mbps. On the device, SemanticXR sustains sub-100 ms query latency for up to 10,000 objects even under network drops, supports tens of thousands of objects within 500 MB, and scales downstream bandwidth with map changes, not total scene size. The system adds only 2% device power during normal operation.

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13.

arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12 DOI: arXiv:2606.13119

MP3: Multi-Period Pattern Pre-training forSpatio-Temporal Forecasting

Authors:

Lilan Peng↗Yandi Liu↗Qingren Yao↗Chongshou Li↗Tianrui Li↗

arXiv:2606.13119v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Spatio-Temporal forecasting is crucial in diverse fields, such as transportation, climate, and energy. Urban spatio-temporal data exhibits temporal mirage: similar short-window inputs have divergent future trends, and vice versa. Existing spatio-temporal graph neural networks (STGNNs) cannot effectively identify such mirages. We argue that the core reason lies in the short-window inputs that have incomplete period observation, heterogeneous global spatial correlation, and cross-period superposition causality. To bridge this gap, we develop a novel Multi- Period Pattern Pre-training (MP3), a plug-and-play pre-training plugin for distinguishing temporal mirages. MP3 presents two core innovations: (1) The multi-period pattern learning is designed to learn multi-period patterns from long time series. Specifically, multi-period temporal modeling leverages edge convolution to identify different multi-period patterns. Multi-period spatial modeling uses a bottleneck project and a global memory bank to capture heterogeneous global spatial relations efficiently. Cross-period pattern interaction employs a causality-enhanced Transformer to capture dependencies across different period patterns. (2) This plugin can seamlessly integrate into existing STGNN backbones to strengthen their forecasting performance. The experiment on five STGNN baselines across five real-world datasets (including a large-scale dataset CA) verify the effectiveness, superior scalability and strong adaptability of MP3, which brings consistent and robust performance improvements across all evaluated baselines. On average, MP3 reduces the MAE 4.7% and the RMSE 5.0%. The code can be available at https://github.com/YAN-outlook/MP3.

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14.

arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-11 DOI: arXiv:2606.08011

Rewrite to Translate, Translate to Reward: Reinforcement Learning for Source Rewriting in Machine Translation

Authors:

Boxuan Lyu↗Haiyue Song↗Zhi Qu↗Hidetaka Kamigaito↗Kotaro Funakoshi↗Manabu Okumura↗

Rewriting source text with large language models (LLMs) before translation has been shown to improve machine translation (MT) quality. However, we find that prompt-based rewriting can degrade translation quality rather than improve it, particularly when smaller LLMs, such as 4B-parameter models, are used. We argue that this limitation stems from the difficulty of controlling rewriting behavior through natural-language prompts alone: a rewrite is useful only if it improves downstream translation, yet existing prompt-based methods do not explicitly optimize for this signal. To address this issue, we propose RLSR (Reinforcement Learning for Source Rewriting), a reinforcement learning framework that trains the rewriting model with a reward based on the downstream translation-quality improvement produced by each rewrite. Experiments across six MT systems and 16 language pairs show that our 4B RLSR-trained rewriting models significantly outperform both the no-rewriting baseline and prompt-based rewriting baselines at the same model scale, while remaining competitive with baselines that use a 235B LLM.

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15.

medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-25 DOI: HASH:b328118597e09229badbcc964874a224

Psychosocial Factors Outweigh Short-Term Environmental Exposures in Subjective Cognitive Difficulties: A Causal AI Study

Authors:

Cao↗Ma↗

Short-term environmental exposures have been linked to cognitive and attention-related outcomes, but the robustness of these associations remains uncertain. We linked daily weather and air-pollution exposures to repeated measures of subjective cognitive difficulties and attention-related outcomes among participants in the All of Us Research Program from 2018 to 2024. Associations were evaluated using complementary longitudinal and causal-inference approaches, including fixed-effects, lagged-exposure, and event-study analyses. Machine-learning methods were used to characterize heterogeneity and latent psychosocial structure, and findings were independently evaluated using 2024 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System data. Several environmental exposure measures were associated with cognitive outcomes in pooled analyses; however, most associations attenuated substantially after accounting for within-location temporal variation. In contrast, mental-health burden, loneliness, and impaired social functioning remained consistently associated with subjective cognitive difficulty across analytical approaches. Similar patterns were observed in the validation dataset. These findings suggest that some observed environmental associations may reflect broader geographic and contextual differences rather than short-term environmental effects. Overall, psychosocial factors demonstrated more consistent associations with subjective cognitive difficulties than short-term environmental exposures across multiple analytical frameworks and independent datasets.

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16.

arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16 DOI: arXiv:2602.09326

Priority-Aware Shapley Value

Authors:

Kiljae Lee↗Ziqi Liu↗Weijing Tang↗Yuan Zhang↗

arXiv:2602.09326v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Shapley values are widely used for model-agnostic data valuation and feature attribution, yet they implicitly assume contributors are interchangeable. This can be problematic when contributors are dependent (e.g., reused/augmented data or causal feature orderings) or when contributions should be adjusted by factors such as trust or risk. We propose Priority-Aware Shapley Value (PASV), which incorporates both hard precedence constraints and soft, contributor-specific priority weights. PASV is applicable to general precedence structures, recovers precedence-only and weight-only Shapley variants as special cases, and is uniquely characterized by natural axioms. We develop an efficient adjacent-swap Metropolis-Hastings sampler for scalable Monte Carlo estimation and analyze limiting regimes induced by extreme priority weights. Experiments on data valuation (MNIST/CIFAR10) and feature attribution (Census Income) demonstrate more structure-faithful allocations and a practical sensitivity analysis via our proposed "priority sweeping".

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17.

arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-24 DOI: arXiv:2606.24165

Spectral Evolution-Guided Token Pruning in Multimodal Large Language Models

Authors:

Bin Chen↗Yuxiang Cai↗Yadan Luo↗Yi Zhang↗Jianwei Yin↗Zhi Chen↗

Reducing visual token redundancy is critical for accelerating Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) without degrading cross-modal reasoning performance. Existing token pruning methods typically rely on single-layer signals, such as attention scores or token similarities, which overlook the cross-layer transformation of visual representations and may exhibit positional bias in multimodal token sequences. To address this limitation, we propose a training-free token pruning framework based on Cross-Layer Spectral Evolution (CLSE). Instead of measuring token importance from single-layer feature magnitudes, CLSE quantifies how token representations evolve across Transformer layers in the frequency domain. This evolution reflects the transition from high-frequency structural details to low-frequency semantic abstractions. We observe that tokens with stronger spectral redistribution across layers are more likely to be semantically active and should therefore be preserved. By modeling cross-layer token dynamics, CLSE provides a stable importance criterion that mitigates positional bias. Extensive experiments on both image and video benchmarks demonstrate that CLSE achieves a superior trade-off between efficiency and accuracy under aggressive token reduction. Across multiple MLLMs, CLSE reduces FLOPs, KV cache memory, and latency while maintaining competitive or improved performance.

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18.

arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-11 DOI: arXiv:2605.28591

Models That Know How Evaluations Are Designed Score Safer

Authors:

Katharina Deckenbach↗Haritz Puerto↗Jonas Geiping↗Sahar Abdelnabi↗

The validity of AI safety evaluations depends on models behaving consistently across controlled and deployment settings. Prior work has identified test-time contextual cues, such as hypothetical scenarios, as a source of verbalized evaluation awareness and subsequent behavioral shift. In this paper, we investigate a potential explanation of this phenomenon: evaluation meta-knowledge, defined as parametric knowledge about the structural traits that characterize evaluations. Similar to dataset contamination, where benchmark exposure leads to higher performance through memorization, we hypothesize that models trained on texts describing evaluation practices may implicitly learn to recognize and respond to evaluation-like contexts, for instance, through exposure to scientific articles or social media posts about AI benchmarking. To test this, we fine-tune models on synthetic documents describing evaluation traits such as verifiable structures or moral dilemmas. Evaluating this fine-tuned model on six safety benchmarks, we find that it is significantly safer than the base model and control model. This behavioral shift persists even when restricting the analysis to responses lacking explicit verbalization of evaluation awareness. Our results demonstrate that evaluation meta-knowledge may inflate safety benchmark performance, introducing a novel confounder that is independent of explicit memorization or verbalized evaluation awareness, thus, challenging to detect. These findings have important implications for the design and interpretation of AI safety evaluations. Our code and models are available at https://github.com/compass-group-tue/arxiv2026_evaluation_meta_knowledge.

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19.

arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19 DOI: arXiv:2606.19895

A fast direct solver based neural network for solving PDEs

Authors:

Jashwanth Reddy Kadaru↗Vaishnavi Gujjula↗

arXiv:2606.19895v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: The matrices arising from large scale $N$-body problems can be efficiently represented using hierarchical matrices, whose key idea is that the admissible off-diagonal sub-matrices can be well approximated by low-rank matrices across a hierarchy of matrix partitions. HODLR (Hierarchical Off-Diagonal Low-Rank) matrices are a subclass of hierarchical matrices in which all off-diagonal submatrices at every level of a recursive binary partition are low-rank. In this article, we present a neural network that learns the inverse operation of HODLR matrices based on the fast direct solver for HODLR matrices developed by Ambikasaran and Darve (2013). We further extend the architecture to learn nonlinear solution operators associated with PDEs by replacing some of the linear layers with deep sub-networks. We demonstrate the performance of the proposed architecture by performing a comprehensive set of experiments that include (i) solving a linear problem such as the Fredholm integral equation of the second kind, (ii) solving PDEs such as the nonlinear Schrödinger equation, Burgers' equation, and the steady-state Darcy's flow equation, (iii) generalization study across varying parameter values, (iv) comparing the inference time of the proposed network with the run time of a classical numerical solver, and (v) comparing the proposed network with some of the existing neural operator learning networks.

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20.

arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-24 DOI: arXiv:2606.24883

BenchX: Benchmarking AI Models for Cancer Detection and Localization with Demographic and Protocol Biases

Authors:

Qi Chen↗Wenxuan Li↗Pedro R. A. S. Bassi↗Xinze Zhou↗Jakob Wasserthal↗Ibrahim Ethem Hamamci↗Sezgin Er↗Ashwin Kumar↗Yiwen Ye↗Yuhan Wang↗Yuyin Zhou↗Akshay S. Chaudhari↗…

Artificial intelligence (AI) has achieved remarkable success in medical imaging, but it is widely recognized that these models often perform inconsistently across real-world clinical settings. Such inconsistencies occur when patient demographics and imaging protocols vary, for example, in detecting small tumors, analyzing scans from different contrast phases, or evaluating patients of different ages or sexes. To quantify these inconsistencies, we develop a large-scale, open benchmark of 85,355 CT scans that systematically evaluates 12 tumor-detection AI models across tumor size, location, patient subgroup, and imaging protocol. We leverage large language models (LLMs) to extract and organize subgroup information from clinical data, which makes the analysis both scalable and reproducible. Our benchmark reveals that current state-of-the-art AI models, optimized for average accuracy, perform poorly in rare or underrepresented subgroups, such as young, female African Americans. However, collecting sufficient annotated data for these rare cases is often impractical. The benchmark provides a foundation for building more reliable and robust AI models for tumor detection and highlighting the need for rigorous, subgroup-level evaluation in medical imaging and computer vision. Datasets, code

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21.

arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-25 DOI: arXiv:2512.00804

Epistemic Bias Injection: Manipulating LLM Opinion via Selective Context Retrieval

Authors:

Hao Wu↗Prateek Saxena↗

arXiv:2512.00804v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: When answering user queries, LLMs often retrieve knowledge from external sources stored in retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) databases. These are often populated from unvetted sources, e.g. the open web, and can contain maliciously crafted data. This paper studies attacks that can manipulate the context retrieved by LLMs from such RAG databases. Prior work on such context manipulation primarily injects false or toxic content, which can often be detected by fact-checking or linguistic analysis. A more subtle threat, which we call epistemic bias injection (EBI), is where adversaries inject factually correct yet epistemically biased passages that systematically favor one side of an open-ended issue. Although linguistically coherent and truthful, such adversarial passages effectively crowd out alternative viewpoints during retrieval from the RAG and push LLM outputs towards an attack-desired stance. As a core contribution, we propose a novel characterization of the problem: We give a geometric metric that quantifies stance polarity and epistemic bias. This metric can be computed directly on embeddings of text passages. Leveraging it, we construct EBI attacks and develop a lightweight prototype defense called BiasDef for them. We evaluate them both on a comprehensive benchmark constructed from public question answering datasets. Our results show that: (1) the proposed attack induces significant stance polarity shifts, effectively evading existing retrieval-based sanitization defenses, and (2) BiasDef substantially reduces adversarial retrieval and epistemic bias in LLM's answers. Overall, this demonstrates the new threat as well as the ease of employing epistemic bias metrics for filtering in RAG-enabled LLMs.

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22.

arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-24 DOI: arXiv:2606.24335

Ill-Posed by Design: Probing Evidence Use in VLMs

Authors:

Boaz Meivar↗Shaked Perek↗Shani Shvartzman↗Eli Schwartz↗Shai Avidan↗

Counterfactual analysis is widely used to study evidence use in vision-language models, but its diagnostic value is limited on well-posed tasks: when several cues independently support the same answer, removing one may not change the prediction. We propose monocular metric object-size estimation as an ill-posed diagnostic setting for evidence selection: because physical size cannot be determined from a single uncalibrated image, models must rely on imperfect cues category priors, target appearance, local context, apparent image size, and scene geometry. We assemble Metric VQA ($10{,}813$ dimension queries from Objectron and $331$ tape-measured in-the-wild scenes) and evaluate $12$ open-weight VLMs ($3$–$397$\,B parameters) with counterfactual analysis decomposing six visual and language evidence channels. Even the largest VLMs tested (Qwen3-VL-235B, Qwen3.5-397B, InternVL3.5-241B) trail a text-only frontier LLM on the in-the-wild split. The diagnostic analysis shows: target identity is the most load-bearing cue, target pixels and local context help only some models, apparent size shifts predictions without a directional readout, and global scene geometry is largely unused. We analyze LoRA fine-tuning as an actionable intervention specific to metric estimation: while the task is learnable, the models do not learn to leverage scene geometry.

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23.

arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-24 DOI: arXiv:2606.24062

RAVEN: A Regime-Aware Variable-context Expert Network for Financial Time Series Forecasting

Authors:

Cheng He↗Zhenyu Guan↗Xijie Liang↗Defu Lian↗Jiajia Li↗Enhong Chen↗Patrick P. C. Lee↗Geng Hu↗Zehao Chen↗

arXiv:2606.24062v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Financial time series forecasting presents structural challenges absent from standard benchmarks. Log-returns are non-stationary, exhibit exceptionally low signal-to-noise (SNR) ratios, and are governed by regime-dependent temporal dependencies. We identify a key limitation of state-of-the-art (SOTA) time series models in financial settings. A fixed context window is mismatched to the time-varying optimal look-back of non-stationary price processes. We propose the Regime-Aware Variable-context Expert Network (RAVEN), a Mixture-of-Experts framework designed to adaptively determine the temporal context for each input sample. Instead of relying on a fixed look-back horizon, RAVEN constructs a hierarchy of nested contiguous windows whose lengths are determined by the data itself. Specifically, RAVEN scores patches by learned importance in reverse chronological order and applies the Cumulative Importance Thresholding (CIT) mechanism to derive nested prefix windows, each routed to a scale-specialized expert. A Global Compressed Representation (GCR) branch runs in parallel over the full context, preserving global temporal coherence that local experts cannot guarantee. Because the nested routing induces structured overlap among expert inputs, we introduce a Correlation-Aware Weighting (CAW) to align variable-length expert outputs and penalize pairwise cosine similarity prior to aggregation. Experiments on cumulative log-return prediction (HS300, S&P500) and fund sales forecasting demonstrate that RAVEN achieves SOTA performances, improves Pearson correlation by 9.2% on HS300 and 20.2% on S&P500, and reduces MSE by 18.2% on fund sales forecasting, while achieving the best results in 14 of 16 metrics on four PEMS traffic benchmarks.

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24.

arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16 DOI: arXiv:2605.09697

Discriminative Span as a Predictor of Synthetic Data Utility via Classifier Reconstruction

Authors:

Radhika Amar Desai↗Modigari Narendra↗

In many real-world computer vision applications, including medical imaging and industrial inspection, binary classification tasks are characterized by a severe scarcity of positive samples. A widely adopted solution is to generate synthetic positive data using image-to-image transformations applied to negative samples. However, a fundamental challenge remains: how can we reliably assess whether such synthetic data will improve downstream model performance? In this work, we propose a geometry-driven metric that predicts the utility of synthetic data without requiring model training. Our approach operates in the embedding space of a pre-trained foundation model and represents the dataset through difference vectors between samples. We evaluate whether the weight vector of a linear classifier can be expressed within the subspace spanned by these variations by measuring the relative projection error. Intuitively, if the variations induced by synthetic data capture task-relevant directions, their span can approximate the classifier, resulting in low projection error. Conversely, poor synthetic data fails to span these directions, leading to higher error. Across multiple datasets and architectures, we show that this metric exhibits strong correlation with downstream classification performance of CNNs trained on mixtures of real negative and synthetic positive data. These findings suggest that the proposed metric serves as a practical and informative tool for evaluating synthetic data quality in data-scarce settings.

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25.

arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12 DOI: arXiv:2606.12485

Speculative Rollback Correction for Quality-Diverse Web Agent Imitation

Authors:

Longkun Hao↗Hongyu Lin↗Hao Li↗Zhichao Yang↗Haojie Hao↗Dongshuo Huang↗Haitao Yang↗Hongyu Ge↗Ming jie Xie↗Yanjun Wu↗Zi Hao Yin↗Yan Bai↗…

arXiv:2606.12485v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Training interactive web agents through imitation learning from expert trajectories has emerged as a highly effective approach. However, determining the optimal timing for expert intervention presents a critical challenge in this context. Delayed intervention often leads to the accumulation of early-stage errors, pushing the page state into an irrecoverable regime. Conversely, premature or excessive intervention causes the agent to become overly reliant on expert policies, trapping the model in local optima characterized by a single, rigid trajectory. We propose Speculative Rollback Correction (SRC), a branch-level imitation framework for resettable agent environments. Instead of requesting teacher labels at every visited state or correcting only after a completed trajectory, SRC uses fixed-horizon branch review: the student executes a short speculative segment before teacher review, and the teacher localizes the first harmful deviation only when local progress breaks. Rollback preserves useful prefixes, while successful rollouts are filtered by a hard verifier and retained in a lightweight quality-diversity archive. The resulting data supports next-action supervised fine-tuning on both localized corrections and verifier-passing trajectories. On WebArena-Infinity, SRC collects 977 verifier-passing trajectories and 9,183 next-action examples; fixed-horizon review improves the recovery-versus-query tradeoff over step-level review while retaining verifier-passing solution variants. Code is available at https://github.com/LongkunHao/SRC_gui_agent.

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