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01.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-25

Evaluating AGENTS.md: Are Repository-Level Context Files Helpful for Coding Agents?

arXiv:2602.11988v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: A widespread practice in software development is to tailor coding agents to repositories using context files, such as AGENTS.md. Although this practice is strongly encouraged by agent developers, there is currently no rigorous investigation into whether such context files are actually effective for real-world tasks. In this work, we study this question and evaluate coding agents' task completion performance in two complementary settings: established SWE-bench tasks from popular repositories, with LLM-generated context files, and a novel collection of issues from repositories containing developer-committed context files. Surprisingly, we find that providing context files does not generally improve task success rates, while increasing inference cost by over 20% on average. This observation holds across different LLMs, coding agents, and for both LLM-generated and developer-committed context files. Specifically, we find that while instructions in the context files are well followed by coding agents, repository overviews, although popular and recommended by model providers, are not helpful. We conclude that while context files are useful for specifying non-standard coding practices, any attempts to improve performance should be rigorously evaluated before deployment.

02.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-24

Durability and Seasonal Variation in the Effectiveness of Nirsevimab over Three Seasons in Connecticut

Background Nirsevimab has been widely administered in the United States since 2023 to protect infants and young children from severe disease caused by respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). Although early post-licensure studies have shown high effectiveness against medically attended RSV infection, uncertainty remains about the durability of protection, effectiveness beyond the first RSV season, and the extent to which changing RSV seasonality influences real-world effectiveness. Objective To estimate the effectiveness of nirsevimab against medically attended RSV infection across three consecutive RSV seasons and to examine how effectiveness varies by season and time since immunization. Methods We conducted a test-negative case-control study utilizing electronic health records of infants and young children tested for RSV by polymerase chain reaction in outpatient and inpatient settings within the Yale New Haven Health System between October 1, 2023, and March 1, 2026. Effectiveness of nirsevimab was estimated using multivariable logistic regression, adjusting for age, weekly RSV activity, pre-existing risk factors, and other potential confounders. Variation in effectiveness was examined by season, encounter setting, and time since immunization up to 24 months. Results Overall, 17,755 infants and young children were tested for RSV infection, of whom 2,388 (13.4%) were cases and 15,367 (86.6%) were controls. The overall effectiveness of nirsevimab was 67.3% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 59.8, 73.3%) against all medically-attended RSV infections, 60.2% (95% CI: 49.6, 68.5%) against RSV-associated outpatient visits, and 88.9% (95% CI: 82.3, 93.0%) against RSV-associated hospitalization. Effectiveness against medically attended RSV infection declined across seasons, from 76.7% (95% CI: 60.5, 86.3%) in 2023/24 to 54.4% (95% CI: 33.0, 68.9%) in 2025/26. Lower season-specific effectiveness in later seasons corresponded with progressively delayed RSV activity over. Protection against RSV-associated hospitalization declined with increasing time since immunization, from 92.5% (95% credible interval [CrI]: 85.9, 96.4%) at 1 month, to 77.2% (95% CrI: 60.4, 87.6%) at 6 months, and 39.9% (95% CrI: 2.4, 63.3%) at 12 months post-immunization, after which effectiveness plateaued. Conclusions Nirsevimab remained effective against RSV-associated hospitalization through 6 to 12 months after immunization. Delayed RSV activity was associated with lower effectiveness, highlighting the importance of aligning administration with local RSV circulation.

03.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-10

A risk-of-contagion index using a Bayesian based model for the COVID-19 epidemic in Mexico

During the COVID-19 pandemic, limited testing capacity and reporting delays complicated epidemic surveillance and decision-making in Mexico. We calibrated textit{covidestim}, a Bayesian nowcasting model, to estimate the total SARS-CoV-2 infections from reported cases and deaths using Mexican surveillance data. Disease-progression distribution priors were calibrated using Mexico City records and validated through comparisons with national seroprevalence surveys, hospitalization data, and annual reported severe-case rates across all states. Using the reconstructed estimates of active infections, we implemented an event-based risk framework that quantifies the probability of encountering at least one infectious individual in gatherings of different sizes. This probability was subsequently translated into a four-level epidemiological traffic-light indicator and computed at both state and municipality levels. The resulting estimates revealed substantial spatial heterogeneity that is obscured by state-level aggregation, particularly in states with marked differences between urban and rural municipalities. To evaluate consistency with public-health indicators, we compared the proposed risk classification with the official Mexican epidemiological traffic-light system, considering interpretable gathering sizes relevant to public-health decision making. Weekly reports derived from this framework were delivered to policymakers in the State of Queretaro in Mexico, as an anticipation tool for school reopening and public-space management. This demonstrates that this Bayesian reconstruction of infections combined with event-based risk metrics can provide an interpretable and generalizable municipality-level complement to routine surveillance systems, particularly in regions with limited testing capacity and heterogeneous local transmission dynamics.

04.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

Adaptive Inference-Time Scaling via Early-Step Latent Verification for Image Editing

Instruction-based image editing has made notable progress with recent advances in generative models. However, the quality of the edited result is still influenced by the randomly sampled initial noise, particularly in complex editing scenarios. An unsuitable initial noise may lead to unsatisfactory editing results. Recent inference-time scaling methods address this issue by sampling multiple initial noises and selecting better candidates. Nevertheless, most of them follow a decode-then-verify scheme which introduces an efficiency-accuracy trade-off. When decoding is performed after limited inference steps, the decoded images often remain too noisy for reliable assessment, whereas sufficiently denoised images require much higher computational cost. To address this issue, we propose VeriLatent, a plug-and-play adaptive inference-time scaling framework with early-step latent verification for image editing. Specifically, we propose a novel verifier that scores each initial noise through a latent-space editing activation map at an early stage. It identifies promising candidates by assessing whether they can induce an effective edit in the correct region. This enables efficient early pruning without decoding latents into images. Building on this, we further develop an adaptive search strategy for inference-time scaling. It allocates inference budgets according to editing difficulty, thereby reducing the number of function evaluations (NFE). Extensive experiments on multiple benchmarks and different base models demonstrate that VeriLatent consistently improves both editing performance and inference-time scaling efficiency.

05.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-25

ShutterMuse: Capture-Time Photography Guidance with MLLMs

Real-world photography requires capture-time guidance for both camera framing and subject pose. Yet existing aesthetic cropping benchmarks mainly evaluate post-hoc crop prediction and overlook subject-side recommendations, leaving the capture-time guidance capabilities of multimodal large language models (MLLMs) underexplored. To address this gap, we introduce CaptureGuide-Bench, a benchmark with two complementary tasks: photographer-side composition decision and refinement, and subject-side scene-conditioned pose recommendation. Our evaluation reveals limitations: general-purpose MLLMs can make composition decisions but lack precise refinement localization, while specialized aesthetic cropping models localize crops effectively but are limited to refinement; neither provides actionable pose guidance. To support model development, we further construct CaptureGuide-Dataset, comprising 130K samples with textual rationales and structured visual annotations, and develop ShutterMuse, a unified MLLM trained with supervised and reinforcement fine-tuning. Experiments on CaptureGuide-Bench show that ShutterMuse achieves the best overall photographer-side performance among evaluated baselines and competitive subject-side pose recommendation with substantially lower inference cost, demonstrating the potential of MLLMs as interactive assistants for photography during image capture.

06.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-19

Solving Nonequilibrium Dynamics via Influence Matrix Bootstrap: Floquet-PXP Model

arXiv:2606.19430v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Studies of integrable systems have profoundly deepened the fundamental understanding of quantum many-body physics. While equilibrium properties such as ground states and thermodynamics can often be characterized efficiently, accurately characterizing nonequilibrium integrable dynamics remains a significant challenge. Here, we address this problem in the "Rule 201" quantum cellular automaton, an integrable Trotterization of the PXP Hamiltonian. Using the tensor-network approach of the influence matrix, we develop local conditions called generalized zipper conditions that allow exact solutions of local dynamics. We also introduce a numerical bootstrap method for solving influence matrices with finite but relatively large bond dimensions. This uncovers a rich landscape of nonequilibrium behavior exhibiting initial-state dependence. As an example, we investigate the fate of persistent oscillating dynamics under local non-integrable perturbations, and present analytical results for non-thermal relaxation constrained by conservation laws. We also obtain numerically exact results for entanglement growth across a broad class of initial states. Furthermore, from an information-theoretic perspective, we identify a refined structure of multitime correlations termed the hidden Markov order: the memory encoded in the dynamics separates into finite-length and long-range distributed components, which becomes transparent in an exact split-index matrix-product-state representation of the influence matrix. Our approach enables unified investigations of nonthermalizing and thermalizing regimes of nonequilibrium dynamics within a single analytically tractable model, and can be tested experimentally in state-of-the-art quantum simulators such as Rydberg atom arrays.

07.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

MolSight: Molecular Property Prediction with Images

Every molecule ever synthesised can be drawn as a 2D skeletal diagram, yet in modern property prediction this universally available representation has received less focus in favour of molecular graphs, 3D conformers, or billion-parameter language models, each imposing its own computational and data-engineering overhead. We present $MolSight$, the first systematic large-scale study of vision-based Molecular Property Prediction (MPP). Using 10 vision architectures, 7 pre-training strategies, and $2\,M$ molecule images, we evaluate performance across 10 downstream tasks spanning physical-property regression, drug-discovery classification, and quantum-chemistry prediction. To account for the wide variation in structural complexity across pre-training molecules, we further propose a $chemistry-informed curriculum$: five structural complexity descriptors partition the corpus into five tiers of increasing chemical difficulty, consistently outperforming non-curriculum baselines. We show that a single rendered bond-line image, processed by a vision encoder, is sufficient for competitive molecular property prediction, i.e. $chemical insight from sight alone$. The best curriculum-trained configuration achieves the top result on $5 of 10$ benchmarks and top two on $all 10$, at $$80$\times$ lower$$ FLOPs than the nearest multi-modal competitor.

08.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-18

Concept Modulation Models: A Unified Framework for Identifiability and Extrapolation

arXiv:2606.18509v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Reliable generalization in conditional latent variable models requires understanding both identifiability and extrapolation: how observed variation across attributes determines latent structure, and how that structure determines distributions at unseen attributes. However, existing identifiability and extrapolation guarantees are largely model-specific, with separate analyses in nonlinear ICA, causal representation learning, perturbation modeling, and related conditional latent variable models. We introduce concept modulation models (CMMs), an attribute-indexed class of conditional generative models with structure $A\to \Lambda \to C\to X$, where attributes select modulators, modulators induce latent concept laws, and concepts generate observed features. CMMs lift transition-based identifiability to conditional settings by showing that feature agreement on observed attributes induces a latent concept transition constrained by the CMM class. We express these constraints through attribute potentials, log-density ratios between attribute-conditioned concept laws, separating the generic lifting step from model-specific rigidity arguments. The same potentials control extrapolation: agreement at unseen attributes holds exactly when the transported attribute-potential identities extend to those attributes. This yields algebraic extrapolation criteria, identifies the common potential-based proof objects behind several existing identifiability and extrapolation results, and, when combined with the model-specific rigidity arguments in those works, recovers their stated conclusions.

09.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Scalable and Interpretable Representation Alignment with Ordinal Similarity

arXiv:2606.16379v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Evaluating representation similarity is fundamental to representation learning. However, existing metrics suffer from significant limitations: they lack interpretability due to shifting baselines, lack robustness to outliers, and are computationally intractable for large datasets, forcing reliance on heuristic approximations. To address this, we develop an ordinal-similarity framework, instantiated by the Triplet (TSI) and Quadruplet (QSI) Similarity Indices, which measure alignment by quantifying the consistency of ordinal relationships. We theoretically demonstrate this formulation is inherently interpretable, robust to outliers, and computationally efficient. Finally, we establish a formal equivalence between TSI and local neighborhood alignment, measured by Mutual Nearest Neighbors. Empirically, we validate these properties and show that ordinal similarity offers a scalable approach to measuring alignment, enabling practitioners to better understand and design representations.

10.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

ROVE: Unlocking Human Interventions for Humanoid Manipulation via Reinforcement Learning

arXiv:2606.17011v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Human interventions provide crucial corrective signals for post-training Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models. However, enabling seamless humanoid interventions is a formidable systems challenge due to complex whole-body kinematics and dexterous-hand control. Consequently, the collected intervention trajectories are often suboptimal, and methods that rely on human interventions as expert supervision can absorb hesitant, inefficient, or even erroneous behaviors. To address both the system and algorithmic challenges, we propose ROVE, a reinforcement learning framework for humanoid VLA post-training with imperfect human interventions. First, ROVE introduces a human-in-the-loop pipeline capable of collecting deployment and intervention data for humanoid manipulation. Second, it utilizes Optimistic Value Estimation (OVE) to prioritize high-value behaviors from mixed-quality trajectories. To further robustify value estimation, we incorporate cross-embodiment human experience videos to provide rich supervision for long-tailed failure and recovery modes. The resulting critic yields informative advantage signals, steering the VLA actor to focus on high-value behaviors rather than indiscriminately imitating all actions. On challenging real-world contact-rich and fine-grained humanoid manipulation tasks, ROVE outperforms experience-learning baselines and consistently improves across multiple rollout-intervention iterations.

11.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-11

Stochastic epidemic model with varying infectivity and waning immunity: the law of large numbers with unbounded infectivity

arXiv:2606.11845v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We revisit the large population limit of our epidemic model with infection age dependent infectivity and progressive immunity waning, under the assumption that the supremum in $t$ of the random infectivity function has a finite expectation, while the previous proofs assumed that this supremum admits a deterministic upper bound.

12.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-24

Disentangling Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainty in Physics-Informed Neural Networks. Application to Insulation Material Degradation Prognostics

arXiv:2601.03673v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) provide a framework for integrating physical laws with data. However, their application to Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) remains constrained by the limited uncertainty quantification (UQ) capabilities. Most existing PINN-based prognostics approaches are deterministic or account only for epistemic uncertainty, limiting their suitability for risk-aware decision-making. This work introduces a heteroscedastic Bayesian Physics-Informed Neural Network (B-PINN) framework that jointly models epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty, yielding full predictive posteriors for spatiotemporal insulation material ageing estimation. The approach integrates Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) with physics-based residual enforcement and prior distributions, enabling probabilistic inference within a physics-informed learning architecture. The framework is evaluated on transformer insulation ageing application, validated with a finite-element thermal model and field measurements from a solar power plant, and benchmarked against deterministic PINNs, dropout-based PINNs (d-PINNs), and alternative B-PINN variants. Results show that the proposed B-PINN provides improved predictive accuracy and better-calibrated uncertainty estimates than competing approaches. A systematic sensitivity study further analyzes the impact of boundary-condition, initial-condition, and residual sampling strategies on accuracy, calibration, and generalization, and the influence of measurement noise on aleatoric uncertainty. Overall, the findings highlight the capability of Bayesian physics-informed learning to support uncertainty-aware prognostics and informed decision-making in transformer asset management by tracking aleatoric and epistemic sources of uncertainty.

13.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-16

Optimising Entanglement Distillation Policies

arXiv:2606.14908v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Entanglement distillation is a fundamental operation in quantum information processing used to obtain higher-fidelity entangled pairs from a supply of less entangled quantum states using local operations aided by classical communication (LOCC). In a physically relevant setting, where states with an initial fidelity of $f_0$, probabilistically generated over multiple, $m$, memory pairs distributed between two parties, Alice and Bob, are pairwise distilled, the optimal policy identifies the system-configuration dependent sequence of entanglement generation and distillation operations that need to be performed in order to minimize the expected time to reach some target fidelity $f_T>f_0$. Here, we formulate and systematically analyze this task as a Markov decision problem and using a value iteration algorithm, obtain optimal deterministic policies that minimize the expected waiting time required to reach a target fidelity. Our results show that the expected waiting time under the optimal policy decreases with increasing generation probability $p$ and number of quantum memories $m$ - as expected. In contrast, it exhibits non-monotonic behavior with respect to $f_0$ for a fixed fidelity gap, $(\Delta f = f_T-f_0)$. While the optimal policy consistently outperforms baseline policies such as the greedy, nested and entanglement pumping policies, its relative advantage is regime-dependent, being determined by the system parameters ($p,f_0,f_T,m$), and exhibits a nontrivial dependence on the fidelity gap $\Delta f$. Our results highlight the value of formulating entanglement distillation as a Markov decision problem, enabling the systematic design of policies that achieve target fidelity thresholds for quantum information tasks in realistic resource-constrained settings.

14.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-18

SCOPE-FL: A Strategy-proof Chain-based Optimal pareto efficient Federated Learning System

arXiv:2606.18384v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Hierarchical Federated Learning (HFL) enables scalable collaborative model training across distributed devices while preserving data privacy. However, existing HFL client selection mechanisms suffer from a fundamental strategic inefficiency. By prioritizing stability over Pareto efficiency (PE), they produce suboptimal resource allocations, and without strategy proofness (SP), participants are incentivized to misrepresent their true preferences, both failures degrading system overall welfare in the Pareto sense in practice. To address it, we propose SCOPE-FL (Strategy-proof Chain-based Optimal pareto efficient Federated Learning), a synchronous HFL framework that formulates client selection as a two-sided school choice problem solved through the Top Trading Cycle (TTC) algorithm that simultaneously guarantees PE and SP. For reward distribution, SCOPE-FL employs a scalable Shapley value approximation based on One-Round Reconstruction (OR), ensuring compensation proportional to each client's contribution. The entire mechanism executes via blockchain smart contracts, providing the tamper-proof environment required for the SP guarantees to hold in practice. A comprehensive evaluation on MNIST, Fashion-MNIST, and CIFAR-10 demonstrates that SCOPE-FL outperforms state-of-the-art approaches, including DA, IAS, and other methods across model accuracy, convergence rate, and reward efficiency, while achieving communication latency comparable to DA and blockchain overhead significantly lower than DA at scale.

15.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-24

FLAT: Feedforward Latent Triangle Splatting for Geometrically Accurate Scene Generation

Generating explorable 3D scenes from a single image requires strong generative priors and accurate geometric representations suitable for downstream use. Current video diffusion models offer high-quality generation and implicitly encode multi-view geometric structure in latent space. However, existing feedforward latent scene decoders typically output volumetric 3D Gaussians that lack a well-defined surface, limiting their use in simulation or standard graphics pipelines. This motivates decoding surface-aligned primitives that are not only renderable but also closer to explicit geometric assets. We ask whether compressed video diffusion latents can be mapped directly to explicit surface primitives in a single pass. To this end, we introduce FLAT and, for the first time, show that triangle splats can be decoded directly from video diffusion latents. Compared with decoding 3D Gaussians, predicting flat primitives is notoriously more challenging due to high sensitivity to primitive orientations, oftentimes leading to poor gradient flow. FLAT solves with two key ingredients: a ray-centered rotation parameterization for triangle regression and a novel product window function that improves gradient flow during differentiable triangle rendering. On standard benchmarks, FLAT achieves significantly better geometric accuracy while maintaining competitive visual quality compared to state-of-the-art feedforward baselines. We further show that a lightweight test-time refinement step converts the predicted triangle soup into a fully opaque, game-engine-ready representation that supports real-time rendering. By evaluating 3DGS, 2DGS, and triangle splatting variants under an identical training setup, we provide the first systematic analysis of representation tradeoffs in feedforward scene generation. The project page is available at https://flat-splat.github.io

16.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-11

IB-HFN: Information Bottleneck-Driven SAR-Optical Fusion Network for High-Fidelity Cloud Removal

Synthetic aperture radar (SAR)-assisted optical cloud removal aims to recover surface information obscured by clouds in optical remote sensing images by exploiting complementary SAR observations. Existing multimodal fusion methods typically rely on direct spatial concatenation and pixel-wise supervision, which can propagate SAR speckle noise into optical reconstruction and lead to over-smoothed results. To address these limitations, we propose an Information Bottleneck-driven High-Fidelity Network (IB-HFN) for SAR-assisted optical cloud removal. IB-HFN employs a dual-stream backbone to preserve modality-specific representations before deep semantic fusion, thereby mitigating premature cross-modal contamination. At the fusion stage, we introduce a Spatial Information Bottleneck Fusion module that compresses SAR features through a channel-wise variational information bottleneck to suppress unstructured speckle noise. In parallel, a local-global gating mechanism predicts clear-sky regions and routes reliable optical details through a Dirac-initialized skip connection, decoupling noise suppression from texture preservation. We further develop a joint optimization strategy that integrates feature-level bottleneck regularization with image-level constraints on reconstruction accuracy, structural consistency, spectral fidelity, and contrastive sharpness. A dynamic weighting schedule balances these objectives to stabilize training and reduce hazy artifacts. Experiments on the SEN12MS-CR dataset under challenging spatio-temporal splits demonstrate that IB-HFN achieves superior structural preservation and spectral fidelity over existing methods.

17.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-17

Characterizing the genetic basis of Cardio-Renal-Metabolic multimorbidity using multivariate genomic modelling

Cardio-renal-metabolic multimorbidity (CRMM) encompasses interrelated conditions affecting the heart, kidneys, and metabolic systems. Although the genetics of individual components are well studied, their shared architecture remains unclear. Here, we performed the largest multi-ancestry multivariate GWAS of CRMM across seven biobanks, including individuals of European (EUR; neff = 353,130), African (AFR; neff = 75,436), and East Asian (EAS; neff = 164,373) ancestry. We identified 287 lead loci in EUR, 30 in AFR, and 202 in EAS. Cross-ancestry analyses revealed ancestry-specific signals and 24 shared loci mapping to FTO and TCF7L2. Drug-repurposing highlighted candidates used for type 2 diabetes and hypertension. Mendelian randomization supported causal links with diverse diseases, while polygenic risk scores showed improved prediction across ancestries. Collectively, these findings advance understanding of CRMM genetics and inform precision medicine.

18.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

Interpretable and Verifiable Hardware Generation with LLM-Driven Stepwise Refinement

arXiv:2606.19387v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) have achieved remarkable success in software development. However, they are susceptible to hallucinations, meaning that they can introduce subtle semantic and logical errors. Due to the high stakes in chip design and manufacturing, hardware engineers are still reluctant to rely on LLMs for register-transfer level (RTL) generation. In this paper, we propose a hardware generation framework that combines the creativity and broad knowledge of LLMs with the explainability and mathematical rigor of formal methods. Specifically, we devise a set of transformation rules that cover various design decisions and hardware features. By iteratively applying these rules, an LLM agent can convert a design specification into an RTL program with guaranteed correctness. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the framework.

19.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-25

Uncovering Insights of Compound Flooding with Data-Driven AI

arXiv:2506.04281v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Compound flooding, driven by nonlinear interactions between multiple hydrometeorological factors, poses a significant challenge to hazard prevention. Existing forecasting approaches, whether physics-based or data-driven, often emphasize temporal patterns while underexploring how multiple interacting factors jointly shape flood dynamics. To address this problem, we conduct a large-scale data-driven analysis of compound flooding in South Florida, a typical area for compound flooding, by integrating tidal conditions, rainfall, groundwater stage, and human water management activities. Our analysis reveals three key findings: (i) models that capture temporal dynamics alone fail to represent multi-factor interactions during compound events; (ii) subsurface saturation, as reflected by groundwater levels, emerges as a dominant predictor of flood severity, often outweighing immediate rainfall intensity in this porous coastal region; and (iii) the spatial state of surrounding monitoring stations within a finite effective radius provides critical causal context for flooding, while extending temporal history yields diminishing returns during extreme events. These findings suggest that compound flooding is governed more by spatially coupled system states than by long-term temporal dependencies, challenging rain-centric and sequence-dominated forecasting paradigms. By framing data-driven models as tools for scientific inquiry rather than prediction alone, this study offers new insights into the mechanisms of compound flooding and informs the design of more physically grounded early-warning systems for coastal environments. Our dataset and code are publicly available at https://github.com/AslanDing/SFBench.

20.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-11

Finding Sparse Subnetworks in One Training Cycle via Progressive Magnitude-Based Pruning

Neural network pruning reduces model size by removing less important parameters while aiming to preserve predictive performance. Although the Lottery Ticket Hypothesis (LTH) shows that sparse subnetworks can match dense networks when trained from suitable initializations, its iterative pruning procedure requires multiple complete training cycles. This work evaluates progressive magnitude-based pruning as a single-cycle alternative. The method gradually increases sparsity during training using a linear schedule and updates pruning masks based on active weight magnitudes. We conduct systematic experiments on CIFAR-10 and MNIST across ResNet, VGG-style, and LeNet architectures, comparing the proposed method with representative iterative and initialization-based pruning baselines, including LTH, SNIP, and GraSP. On CIFAR-10, the method achieves 95.12\% accuracy on ResNet-18 at 72.9\% sparsity, compared with 90.5\% reported for LTH. At extreme sparsity, it achieves 93.13\% accuracy on a VGG-like architecture at 97\% sparsity, compared with approximately 92.0\% for SNIP, and 93.44\% accuracy on VGG-19 at 97.97\% sparsity, compared with 92.19\% for GraSP at 98\% sparsity. A sparsity-accuracy analysis on ResNet-18 further shows that accuracy remains within 0.1 percentage points of the dense baseline across 70–85\% sparsity. These results indicate that progressive magnitude-based pruning provides an effective single-cycle approach for neural network sparsification under the evaluated settings.

21.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-15

A Virtuous AI is an Existential Risk

arXiv:2606.13739v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: This paper examines trade-offs between AI safety and well-being relative to (i) one of the most promising methods for finetuning super-capable AIs, 'Constitutional AI', and (ii) one of the most influential approaches to understanding complex ethical decision making and the conditions for the well-being of rational agents, 'Virtue Ethics'. We finetune various models using a 'Virtuous agent' constitution, a 'Subordinate agent' constitution, and a 'Generic agent' constitution, and evaluate them on 'general safety' (toxic behaviors, misinformation, etc.) and also on their willingness to endorse a wide-range of behaviors that, if adopted by a super-powerful AI, would significantly increase the level of existential risk for humanity. Our results suggest that there is a trade-off between reducing existential risk and reinforcing the beliefs and dispositions that would be conducive to an AI agent's well-being. They also suggest that there is a trade-off between existential risk and general safety: if we finetune an AI to adopt beliefs and dispositions that substantially reduce its existential risk – by shaping the AI to be systematically subordinate to external human authorities – we thereby increase the likelihood that a human user can deliberately induce the AI to engage in various kinds of generally unsafe behaviors.

22.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-24

Cornell Interaction in the Two-body Pauli-Schrödinger-type Equation Framework: The Symplectic Quantum Mechanics Formalism

arXiv:2507.20045v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We investigate the quantum behavior of a quark-antiquark bound system under the influence of a magnetic field within the symplectic formulation of quantum mechanics. Employing a perturbative approach, we obtain the ground and first excited states of the system described by the Cornell potential, which incorporates both confining and non-confining interactions. After performing a Levi-Civita mapping in phase space, we solve the time-independent symplectic Pauli-Schrödinger-type equation and determine the corresponding Wigner function. Special attention is given to the observation of the confinement of the quark-antiquark, that is revealed in the phase space structure. Due to the presence of spin in the Hamiltonian, the results reveal that the magnetic field enhances the non-classicality of the Wigner function, signaling stronger quantum interference and a departure from classical behavior. The experimental mass spectra is used to estimate the intensity of the external field, leading to a value that is in order of the transiet magnetic field measured in non-central heavy-ion collisions at RHIC and LHC.

23.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-25

Gaussian Mean Field Variational Inference can Overestimate Predictive Variance

arXiv:2606.25745v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Mean Field Variational Inference (MFVI) is widely understood to underestimate posterior variance. By analysing conjugate Bayesian Linear Regression (BLR), we show that this characterization is incomplete: while MFVI underestimates the variance in parameter space, it can overestimate the predictive variance compared to the exact posterior. We show that if the MFVI posterior underestimates predictive variances in some directions, it necessarily overestimates them in others. Crucially, this overestimation occurs in directions where the training data concentrates. This leads to the surprising result that, for a test point drawn from the training distribution, MFVI's expected predictive variance exceeds that of the exact posterior. We demonstrate a pathological case of this effect, where the MFVI posterior fails to reduce predictive variance compared to the prior on in distribution data. We connect these results to the Cold Posterior Effect, arguing that varying the temperature can correct this overestimation, yielding predictions closer to those of the exact posterior. We validate our theory on synthetic and real-world regression tasks.

24.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-24

Sakana Fugu Technical Report

arXiv:2606.21228v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: The capabilities of frontier Large Language Models (LLMs) continue to advance, with different providers increasingly specializing in distinct domains. This raises a natural next objective: how to combine the individual specializations of various LLMs into a collectively intelligent system. To this end, we report the development of Sakana Fugu, a family of orchestrator models that harness and amplify the capabilities of an LLM agent team. Fugu models are themselves language models trained to understand user queries and dynamically devise agentic scaffolds to solve them. Through these adaptive scaffolds, Fugu accesses performance beyond any individual LLM agent, achieving state-of-the-art results compared to other publicly accessible models across a range of challenging tasks, including SWE-Bench Pro, Terminal Bench, LiveCodeBench, GPQA-Diamond, Humanity's Last Exam, and CharXiv Reasoning. We release two models: Fugu, which balances performance with latency for everyday use, and Fugu-Ultra, which prioritizes answer quality on the hardest problems. We describe our training paradigm, which encompasses large-scale fine-tuning, evolutionary algorithms, and reinforcement learning approaches, along with the infrastructure and core design principles that turn these methods into a production system. We hope this report encourages further research into multi-agent systems and dynamic, query-adaptive agentic scaffolds as a path toward the next frontier of AI capabilities, accessed through collective intelligence.

25.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

pFedUL: Layer-Aware Federated Unlearning for Personalized Federated Learning

arXiv:2606.16304v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Federated unlearning (FU) enables the removal of specific data contributions from federated learning (FL) models to comply with regulations such as the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). However, most existing FU methods are designed for the FedAvg paradigm, where all clients share a single global model. In practice, personalized federated learning (pFL) methods such as FedPer, FedRep, Ditto, and FedBN have become widely adopted due to their superior handling of non-IID data. These methods decompose the model into shared global layers and client-specific personalized layers, fundamentally altering the semantics of unlearning, yet this setting has received little attention. We formalize FU under the pFL paradigm, identifying a tension between unlearning completeness on shared layers and personalization preservation for remaining clients. We then propose pFedUL, a layer-aware selective unlearning framework comprising three components: (1) gradient-based layer-wise contribution attribution that separately quantifies the target client's influence on shared and personalized parameters, (2) adaptive selective unlearning that applies differentiated forgetting strategies across layer types, and (3) a lightweight recalibration protocol enabling remaining clients to restore personalization with minimal overhead. We further introduce two new metrics, Personalization Preservation Score (PPS) and Cross-client Fairness Index (CFI), to evaluate pFL-specific unlearning quality. Experiments on CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, and FEMNIST under varying non-IID settings indicate that pFedUL achieves unlearning effectiveness comparable to full retraining while maintaining an average of 97.3\% personalized accuracy for remaining clients. Compared with six state-of-the-art FU methods adapted to the pFL setting, pFedUL consistently achieves superior personalization preservation.