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01.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-19

JAMER: Project-Level Code Framework Dataset and Benchmark on Professional Game Engines

Current AI-driven game development has made substantial progress in asset generation, gameplay design, and web-based game coding, yet project-level code engineering on professional game engines remains largely unexplored due to the absence of large-scale datasets and deterministic evaluation methods. We present JamSet and JamBench, the first project-level game code framework dataset and benchmark built on a professional game engine. Our key insight is that Game Jam competitions, community events where developers build complete games under tight time constraints, yield thousands of open-source projects suitable for this purpose. Building on the Godot engine's text-based format and headless execution mode, we design a deterministic verification pipeline from file integrity to runtime behavior collection, distilling 8,133 verified projects from over 240,000 repositories. Of these, 300 manually verified projects form JamBench; the rest constitute JamSet. JamBench defines theme-driven generation and code completion tasks, evaluated through a pipeline combining compilation pass rates, Structural Completeness Score (SCS), and Behavioral Alignment Score (BAS). Evaluation of 9 frontier models reveals a capability cliff as project scale increases, with runtime pass rates dropping from 80.4% on small projects to 5.7% on large ones (Task2a). Code Agents improve compilation rates yet yield no gains in runtime behavioral quality, indicating that the bottleneck lies in architectural design rather than syntactic correctness. Experiments validate JamSet as effective training data. All data and code are publicly available.

02.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-17

HLS-GPT: A Generative Pretrained Transformer (GPT) for Continental-Scale NASA Harmonized Landsat and Sentinel-2 (HLS) Reflectance Reconstruction Across All Bands on Arbitrary Dates

Recent deep learning methods for Landsat and Sentinel-2 reflectance time series reconstruction remain limited by restricted spectral coverage, limited geographic scalability, or patch-based designs with short temporal contexts. We present HLS-GPT, a large-scale generative pretrained Transformer model for reconstructing NASA Harmonized Landsat Sentinel-2 30 m surface reflectance for all bands, any date, and any pixel location. HLS-GPT uses a hierarchical Transformer architecture to handle the different spectral band configurations of Landsat and Sentinel-2 and operates on single-pixel 12-month time series. To capture geographic and seasonal variability, the model was trained with nine years of HLS time series from more than 0.25 million training pixels across the conterminous United States. A random cropping and masking strategy extracts 12-month periods with varying start dates across epochs, masks 50% of valid observations, and trains the model to reconstruct the masked reflectance values from the remaining observations. Evaluation using more than 62,000 independent test pixels shows robust reconstruction under diverse land surface conditions, including complex crop phenology and sparse, irregular observations. Leave-one-observation-out evaluation achieved reconstruction RMSE below 0.026 for all HLS spectral bands, with relative RMSE below 35% for visible bands and below 13% for other bands. Red-edge band errors were comparable to red and near-infrared errors despite the absence of red-edge bands on Landsat. Sensitivity analyses that randomly masked 10% to 90% of test observations showed only modest degradation when 10% to 50% of observations were masked, with all-band RMSE below 0.028. Image reconstruction over nine independent 109 by 109 km CONUS HLS tiles further demonstrates that HLS-GPT outperforms two conventional methods and the NASA-IBM Prithvi model.

03.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-25

Modelling the Impact of Device Imperfections on Electron Shuttling in SiMOS devices

arXiv:2512.03853v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Extensive theoretical and experimental work has established high-fidelity electron shuttling in Si/SiGe systems, whereas demonstrations in Si/SiO2 (SiMOS) remain at an early stage. To help address this, we perform full 3D simulations of conveyor-belt charge shuttling in a realistic SiMOS device, building on earlier 2D modelling. We solve the Poisson and time-dependent Schrodinger equations for varying shuttling speeds and gate voltages, focusing on potential pitfalls of typical SiMOS devices such as oxide-interface roughness, gate fabrication imperfections, and charge defects along the transport path. The simulations reveal that for low clavier-gate voltages, the additional oxide screening in multi-layer gate architectures causes conveyor-belt shuttling to collapse to the bucket-brigade mode, inducing considerable orbital excitation in the process. Increasing the confinement restores conveyor-belt operation, which we find to be robust against interface roughness, gate misalignment, and charge defects buried in the oxide. However, our results indicate that defects located at the Si/SiO2-interface can induce considerable orbital excitation. For lower conveyor gate biases, positive defects in the transport channel can even capture passing electrons. Hence we identify key challenges and find operating regimes for reliable charge transport in SiMOS architectures.

04.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-12

Reservoir-controlled electromagnetically induced gratings in a weakly driven two-level medium

arXiv:2606.13085v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We theoretically investigate the transmission and diffraction of a weak probe field from an electromagnetically induced grating formed in a weakly driven two-level medium coupled to engineered quantum reservoirs. Using a perturbative solution of the optical Bloch equations in the weak-driving regime, we analyze how normal-vacuum, thermal, and broadband squeezed-vacuum environments modify the probe susceptibility and consequently reshape both the spatial transmission function and the far-field diffraction patterns. We show that reservoir statistics have a pronounced impact on the diffraction response by altering the amplitude and phase of the induced grating. Thermal reservoirs enhance the transmission modulation and increase the intensity of the dominant diffraction orders, whereas squeezed-vacuum reservoirs generate strongly phase-sensitive modifications that selectively redistribute optical power among diffraction channels. We further demonstrate that the detuning between the squeezed reservoir and the driving field provides an efficient mechanism for controlling diffraction directionality, leading to substantial amplification of selected angular orders. In two-dimensional geometries, squeezed-vacuum correlations produce highly structured phase landscapes and strongly anisotropic diffraction patterns, enabling directional enhancement of specific diffraction channels while suppressing others. These results establish reservoir engineering as a versatile approach for controlling transmission, diffraction efficiency, and angular selectivity in minimal two-level systems, with potential applications in programmable photonic devices, beam steering, and quantum optical platforms.

05.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Spectral Adaptive Conformal Prediction for Structured Non-Exchangeable Data

arXiv:2606.15950v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Conformal prediction gives prediction intervals with finite-sample coverage when the data are exchangeable. Many time-indexed datasets are not exchangeable. They have seasons, recurring regimes, changing frequencies, or other forms of structured dependence. This paper studies a simple way to use that structure. We propose spectral adaptive conformal prediction, a method that forms weighted conformal quantiles using local spectral similarity and then updates the target miscoverage level online. The spectral weights choose calibration residuals that look relevant to the current test point. The adaptive update corrects the long-run miss rate when uncertainty changes over time. We give an approximate coverage result for the fixed spectral weighted quantile and a deterministic long-run calibration result for the adaptive update. Simulations with recurring regimes and slowly changing frequencies, together with three U.S. real-data examples, show that the hybrid method can improve on fixed spectral weighting, while also showing that spectral weighting must be monitored through effective sample size diagnostics.

06.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-11

Beyond Dark Knowledge: Mixup-Based Distillation for Reliable Predictions

Knowledge Distillation (KD) and mixup have proven effective at inducing smoothness in class boundaries; KD captures inherent class relationships in probability distributions, and mixup enforces them through convex combinations of inputs. Their interaction, however, remains poorly understood, particularly when mixup is applied only during student training. In this setting, the teacher is queried on inputs drawn from a vicinal distribution it never saw during training, a controlled mismatch whose effect on knowledge transfer has not been characterised. We show that this mismatch causes the teacher's supervisory signal to be dominated by distributional confusion rather than inter-class structure. Despite it, the student does not merely imitate the teacher: it independently acquires greater linearity in the vicinal region, a structural property that the teacher lacks, and goes beyond dark-knowledge transfer. KD with mixup consistently improves student accuracy and reduces overconfidence by an order of magnitude relative to the baseline, across CIFAR and ImageNet with varying-capacity teachers. Crucially, calibration propagates from teacher to student independently of accuracy transfer, and temperature scaling governs a measurable accuracy-calibration trade-off that becomes more pronounced under vicinal training. These results reframe mixup distillation not as a degraded version of standard KD, but as a richer transfer channel that simultaneously shapes discriminative performance, uncertainty estimation, and representational geometry.

07.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-16

Compressed Qubit Noise Spectroscopy: Piecewise-Linear Modeling and Rademacher Measurements

arXiv:2601.02516v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Random pulse sequences are a powerful method for qubit noise spectroscopy, enabling efficient reconstruction of sparse noise spectra. Here, we advance this method in two complementary directions. First, we extend the method using a regularizer based on the total generalized variation (TGV) norm, in order to reconstruct a larger class of noise spectra, namely piecewise-linear noise spectra, which more realistically model many physical systems. We show through numerical simulations that the new method resolves finer spectral features, while maintaining an order-of-magnitude speedup over conventional approaches to noise spectroscopy. Second, we simplify the experimental implementation of the method, by introducing Rademacher measurements for reconstructing sparse noise spectra. These measurements use pseudorandom pulse sequences that can be generated in real time from a short random seed, reducing experimental complexity without compromising reconstruction accuracy. Together, these developments broaden the reach of random pulse sequences for accurate and efficient noise characterization in realistic quantum systems.

08.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-23

Intellectual Property Literacy, Innovation Readiness and Innovation Practice in Syria's Pharmaceutical Sector: A Cross-Sectional Study

Background Innovation in pharmaceutical sectors operating under resource and institutional constraints may depend not only on knowledge and attitudes but also on the conditions that enable innovation-related activities to occur. This study examined the relationships among intellectual property (IP) literacy, innovation attitudes, innovation readiness, and reported innovation practice among pharmaceutical professionals in Syria. Methods A cross-sectional survey was conducted among 303 pharmaceutical professionals between March and April 2026. Four composite indices were constructed to assess IP literacy, innovation attitudes, innovation readiness, and innovation practice. Descriptive statistics, correlation analyses, group comparisons, and multivariable regression models were used to characterize patterns of association among study domains. The analysis was designed to identify empirical patterns rather than infer causal relationships. Results Innovation attitudes were comparatively high (73.56/100), whereas innovation readiness (17.00/100) and innovation practice (12.65/100) were substantially lower. IP literacy was positively associated with innovation readiness (r = 0.384, p < 0.001) and innovation practice (r = 0.205, p < 0.001). In contrast, innovation attitudes were not significantly associated with reported innovation practice (p = 0.332). Regression analyses indicated that the inclusion of innovation readiness improved model fit beyond specifications based on knowledge and attitudes alone ({Delta}R{superscript 2} = 0.058, p = 0.028). Significant differences in readiness and practice were observed across professional groups (p < 0.001), whereas knowledge and attitudes showed limited variation. Conclusions High levels of innovation-related knowledge and positive attitudes did not correspond to high levels of reported innovation practice in this setting. The findings suggest that innovation readiness may capture enabling conditions that are not reflected by knowledge or attitudinal measures alone. These results support the value of examining contextual and institutional factors when assessing innovation capacity in resource-constrained pharmaceutical systems. Given the substantial gap observed between innovation attitudes and innovation practice, educational strategies may represent one avenue for strengthening innovation readiness. In the Syrian context, strengthening innovation-oriented education and university-industry engagement may help cultivate innovation competencies and support the translation of research into practical applications.

09.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-19

Quantum Algebraic Diversity: Single-Copy Density Matrix Estimation via Group-Structured Measurements

arXiv:2604.03725v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We extend the algebraic diversity (AD) framework from classical signal processing to quantum measurement theory. The Quantum Algebraic Diversity (QAD) Theorem establishes that a group-structured positive operator-valued measure (POVM) applied to a single copy of a quantum state produces a full-rank, group-averaged density matrix estimator whose eigenbasis and eigenvalue ordering track those of the true density matrix, with a bias toward the symmetrized state, analogous to the classical recovery of covariance eigenstructure from a single observation. We establish a Classical-Quantum Duality Map connecting classical covariance estimation to quantum state tomography, and an Optimality Inheritance Theorem showing that classical group optimality transfers to quantum settings via the Born map within the group-averaged family. SIC-POVMs are identified as AD with the Heisenberg-Weyl group and mutually unbiased bases as AD with the Clifford group, revealing the hierarchy $\mathrm{HW}(d) \subseteq \mathcal{C}(d) \subseteq S_d$ that mirrors the classical $\mathbb{Z}_M \subseteq G_{\min} \subseteq S_M$. The double-commutator eigenvalue theorem gives polynomial-time adaptive POVM selection. A worked qubit example shows the group-averaged estimator from a single computational-basis measurement, averaged over a matched $\mathbb{Z}_2$ group, reaching fidelity 0.99 where standard single-basis tomography gives a rank-1 estimate of fidelity 0.80. Monte Carlo simulations for $d = 2$ to $13$ confirm fidelity above 0.90 from a single outcome while standard fidelity degrades as $\sim 1/d$. The growing ratio reflects collapse of the rank-1 standard estimator, not fewer copies per parameter: the biased single-copy estimator reduces the number of distinct measurement settings, not the per-parameter sampling cost, and a genuine copy reduction holds only under exact symmetry.

10.
Nature (Science) 2026-06-10

Human migration has surged since 2000 — these maps reveal where people are going

Authors:

Modelling with artificial-intelligence tools has filled gaps in migration data, revealing detailed global population movements from 1990 to 2023. Modelling with artificial-intelligence tools has filled gaps in migration data, revealing detailed global population movements from 1990 to 2023.

11.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

The Autonomy Tax: Defense Training Breaks LLM Agents

arXiv:2603.19423v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Large language model (LLM) agents increasingly rely on external tools (file operations, API calls, database transactions) to autonomously complete complex multi-step tasks. Practitioners deploy defense-trained models to protect against prompt injection attacks that manipulate agent behavior through malicious observations or retrieved content. We reveal a fundamental capability-alignment paradox: defense training designed to improve safety systematically destroys agent competence while failing to prevent sophisticated attacks. Evaluating defended models against undefended baselines across 97 agent tasks and 1,000 adversarial prompts, we uncover three systematic biases unique to multi-step agents. Agent incompetence bias manifests as immediate tool execution breakdown, with models refusing or generating invalid actions on benign tasks before observing any external content. Cascade amplification bias causes early failures to propagate through retry loops, pushing defended models to timeout on 99\% of tasks compared to 13\% for baselines. Trigger bias leads to paradoxical security degradation where defended models perform worse than undefended baselines while straightforward attacks bypass defenses at high rates. Root cause analysis reveals these biases stem from shortcut learning: models overfit to surface attack patterns rather than semantic threat understanding, evidenced by extreme variance in defense effectiveness across attack categories. Our findings demonstrate that current defense paradigms optimize for single-turn refusal benchmarks while rendering multi-step agents fundamentally unreliable, necessitating new approaches that preserve tool execution competence under adversarial conditions.

12.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

Sensorimotor World Models: Perception for Action via Inverse Dynamics

arXiv:2606.20104v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Perception for action suggests that representations of the world should be shaped not by visual fidelity alone, but by their relevance for actions. At the same time, latent JEPA-style world models advocate learning compact predictive states from high-dimensional observations to facilitate the prediction of future states, but end-to-end training of these models is nontrivial because representations may collapse if our only goal is to construct a latent state that is easy to predict. We introduce a sensorimotor world model (SMWM): a latent world model trained end-to-end with inverse dynamics regularization. This single regularizer addresses both issues: it prevents representation collapse and induces action-aligned representations. By forcing latent states to preserve information about the action underlying a transition, it biases the model toward the controllable degrees of freedom of the environment while discarding uncontrollable distractors. This yields stable latent world models trained from offline, reward-free trajectories, without frozen encoders, exponential moving averages, or complex latent regularizers. Empirically, SMWM learns compact, interpretable latent spaces and enables competitive planning performance across simple 2D and 3D control tasks.

13.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-11

The Statistical Compass

arXiv:2606.11282v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: This monograph develops probability and stochastic-process ideas as a translation language for statistics: from designed observations and data objects to targets, stability statements, inference, and use. The chapters move from motivating examples and randomization through probability measures, kernels, likelihoods, data objects, weak convergence, empirical fields, functional data, M- and Z-estimation, testing, local approximations, event-time processes, and prediction. Historical and biomedical examples are used to keep abstract objects tied to records, mechanisms, and decisions. The aim is to give readers a common grammar for classical probability, modern data structures, and statistical practice.

14.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-12

Stereo Vision-Based Fall Prediction and Detection using Human Pose Estimation on the AMD Kria K26 SOM

Background and Objective: Falls among elderly people can cause serious injury and reduce quality of life. Timely prediction and detection are essential to prevent harm and support well-being. We propose a portable, low-power, battery-operated, vision-based fall prediction and detection system using HPE on an AMD Kria K26 System-on-Module (SOM). The objective is a non-intrusive, privacy-preserving system for real-time fall detection. Methods: The system uses an Intel RealSense D455 range-sensing camera connected to the K26 SOM by USB. It captures synchronized RGB and depth frames, 640 x 480 x 3 and 640 x 480 pixels, at 60 FPS. The SOM runs a three-stage pipeline with quantized YOLOX, Anchor-to-Joint (A2J), and fall-detection models. YOLOX identifies human bounding boxes from RGB frames, then discards the RGB frames to preserve privacy. A2J uses depth frames to estimate 15 joint keypoints per person. A CNN uses selected joint coordinates (x, y, z) to classify fall activity. YOLOX was trained on CrowdHuman; A2J on ITOP, MP-3DHP, UR Fall Detection, and a custom SDSU PSG dataset; and the CNN on UR Fall Detection and SDSU PSG. The design used a single-core DPU with a serial pipeline and a dual-core DPU running YOLOX and A2J with multiple threads. Results: Quantized accuracy was evaluated using IoU >= 50% for YOLOX, mAP with a 10-cm rule for A2J, and classification accuracy, (TP + TN)/(TP + TN + FP + FN), for the CNN. Accuracies were 74%, 84.13%, and 75.85%. Throughput improved from 2.5 FPS for the single-threaded pipeline to 4.5 FPS for the multi-threaded version. Conclusion: Results demonstrate the feasibility of privacy-preserving fall detection on an AMD Kria K26 edge device. On-device HPE and fall classification runs without cloud dependency, supporting elderly monitoring and assistive healthcare. Future work will improve model accuracy and speed.

15.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-23

Clinical Characteristics and Predictors of Delayed Cerebral Ischemia in High-Altitude Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage

Background and Purpose-Aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) remains a devastating cerebrovascular event, with delayed cerebral ischemia (DCI) representing its most feared complication. High-altitude environments induce profound cerebrovascular adaptations, yet no study has systematically examined aSAH outcomes in chronically hypoxic populations. We characterized clinical features and identified DCI predictors among aSAH patients on the Tibetan Plateau. Methods-This single-center retrospective cohort included 256 consecutive aSAH patients admitted at a tertiary neurosurgical center in Tibet (altitude 2,330-4,920 m) between 2013 and 2015. The primary outcome was DCI per consensus criteria. Multivariable logistic regression identified independent predictors; receiver operating characteristic analysis evaluated model performance. Altitude and hemoglobin were specifically evaluated as altitude-related risk factors. Results-DCI occurred in 26 patients (10.2%). In-hospital mortality was 1.6%. Most patients presented with good-grade aSAH (Hunt-Hess I-II, 73.0%; Fisher I-II, 73.1%). On multivariable analysis, only Fisher grade independently predicted DCI (odds ratio, 3.63 [95% CI, 1.14-11.52]; P=0.029). Neither altitude (P=0.697) nor hemoglobin concentration (P=0.858) was associated with DCI risk. The predictive model achieved an area under the curve of 0.812. At 1-year follow-up, 77.8% achieved favorable functional outcomes (modified Rankin Scale 0-2). Conclusions-Fisher grade is the sole independent predictor of DCI in high-altitude aSAH patients, while chronic hypoxia and compensatory hemoglobin elevation do not significantly modify DCI risk. Established sea-level prognostic frameworks remain valid in high-altitude settings, supporting their continued use for clinical risk stratification. Keywords: aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage; high altitude; delayed cerebral ischemia; Fisher grade; Tibetan Plateau; prognosis

16.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-25

How Does the Pretraining Distribution Shape In-Context Learning? A Fundamental Trade-Off

arXiv:2510.01163v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: The factors driving the performance of in-context learning (ICL) in large language models (LLMs) remain poorly understood despite ICL's surprising effectiveness, enabling models to adapt to new tasks from only a handful of examples. To clarify and improve these capabilities, we characterize how the statistical properties of the pretraining distribution (e.g., tail behavior, coverage) shape ICL. We develop a theoretical framework that encompasses generalization and task selection and show how distributional properties govern sample efficiency, task retrieval, and robustness. To this end, we generalize existing concentration results to heavy-tailed priors and dependent sequences, better reflecting the structure of LLM pretraining data. Our framework reveals a fundamental design trade-off: heavy-tailed pretraining distributions facilitate robust task selection under distribution shifts but are detrimental to generalization, especially in low-data regimes. We then empirically evaluate our predictions by studying how ICL performance varies with the pretraining distribution on challenging tasks such as stochastic differential equations and stochastic processes with memory. Together, these findings suggest that controlling key statistical properties of the pretraining distribution is essential for building ICL-capable and reliable LLMs.

17.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19

An adaptive framework for the axisymmetric pulsar magnetosphere using physics-informed Kolmogorov-Arnold networks

arXiv:2606.10686v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: The pulsar magnetosphere has only recently been addressed using Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs), by deploying a domain-decomposition approach and treating the separatrix and equatorial current sheet as infinitesimally thin discontinuities. However, this baseline requires extensive manual hyperparameter tuning, achieves limited final accuracy and demands several hours of training. We refine this framework by introducing domain-specific neural architectures based on Kolmogorov-Arnold networks, an automated adaptive training pipeline and a physics-based convergence criterion that eliminate the need for manual calibration. The proposed methodology delivers self-consistent axisymmetric magnetosphere solutions with mean squared errors of the PDE residuals at O(1e-6) in double precision - an improvement of two orders of magnitude over the baseline - while achieving convergence in under 20 minutes in single precision. Importantly, the method reliably resolves stellar radii reduced by up to 80% compared to the baseline, overcoming the severe spatial scale disparities that also challenge traditional solvers. Furthermore, by varying the flux that opens to infinity, we provide a correction to the equation that connects it to the equatorial T-point's position. The complete framework is released as the open-source library PulsarX.

18.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

Creativity Reconsidered: Generative AI and the Problem of Intentional Agency

arXiv:2601.15797v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Many theorists maintain that conscious intentional agency is a necessary condition of creativity. We argue that this requirement, which we call the Intentional Agency Condition (IAC), should be abandoned. We motivate this by highlighting the problems this criterion encounters in the face of recent advances in generative AI, which is ostensibly creative despite being incapable of intentional agency. We present two corpus analyses to illustrate the rapidly increasing tendency of people to predicate creativity to generative AI. In response to this predicament, theorists of creativity have proposed a range of conflicting solutions, which we critically evaluate. We find that none of these satisfyingly resolves the initial predicament, and we therefore propose a novel approach. Our claim is that ascriptions of creativity are dependent on what we call creative ability. This solution explains why intentional agency is important for judgements of creativity, without being a necessary condition. Our approach thereby accommodates AI creativity without dismissing the intuition that perceived intentions are of key importance for ascriptions of creativity.

19.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-18

SWE-Future: Forecast-Conditioned Data Synthesis for Future-Oriented Software Engineering Agents

arXiv:2606.18733v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Realistic coding-agent benchmarks often replay public GitHub issues and pull requests, making them vulnerable to overlap with model pretraining, fine-tuning, synthetic-data generation, or benchmark-driven model selection. Fully synthetic tasks avoid direct historical replay, but can drift away from real repository needs. We propose SWE-Future, a forecast-conditioned data synthesis method for future-oriented coding tasks. Given a forecast snapshot at time $T_0$, the method uses only pre-$T_0$ repository evidence to forecast future feature implementation/enhancement, bugfix, and refactor task families. We first validate this forecasting step retrospectively: after forecasts are fixed, later pull requests are used only to measure whether the predicted task families match future repository work. In an 80-repository study, the forecaster achieves 58.1\% future-work relevance under the main semantic matching metric. We then use validated forecast families as conditioning signals to synthesize a 200-task coding-agent dataset across 61 repositories from a task-generation snapshot, rather than replaying the later pull requests used for validation. SWE-Future shows that repository-evolution forecasts can guide realistic, future-oriented coding-task synthesis while reducing direct dependence on historical pull-request replay.

20.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-15

Minimum Distance Summaries for Robust Neural Posterior Estimation

arXiv:2602.09161v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Simulation-based inference (SBI) enables amortized Bayesian inference by first training a neural posterior estimator (NPE) on prior-simulator pairs, typically through low-dimensional summary statistics, which can then be cheaply reused for fast inference by querying it on new test observations. Because NPE is estimated under the training data distribution, it is susceptible to misspecification when observations deviate from the training distribution. Many robust SBI approaches address this by modifying NPE training or introducing error models, coupling robustness to the inference network and compromising amortization and modularity. We introduce minimum-distance summaries, a plug-in robust NPE method that adapts queried test-time summaries independently of the pretrained NPE. Leveraging the maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) as a distance between observed data and a summary-conditional predictive distribution, the adapted summary inherits strong robustness properties from the MMD. We demonstrate that the algorithm can be implemented efficiently with random Fourier feature approximations, yielding a lightweight, model-free test-time adaptation procedure. We provide theoretical guarantees for the robustness of our algorithm and empirically evaluate it on a range of synthetic and real-world tasks, demonstrating substantial robustness gains with minimal additional overhead.

21.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-24

Distributional Statistical Models: Weak Moments, Cumulants, and a Central Limit Theorem

Authors:

arXiv:2604.20634v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Many important statistical models fall outside classical moment-based methods due to the non-existence of moments or moment generating functions. We propose a generalised probabilistic framework in which a probability law is represented by a tempered distribution $T \in \mathcal{S}'$, on the same footing as a density, a distribution function, or a characteristic function. Information about the law is extracted by evaluating $T$ on test functions regularised by a given positive Schwartz kernel $\varphi \in \mathcal{S}$ – the kernel serving as a probe, not as part of the law. Expectations are defined via the action of distributions on regularised test functions, yielding well-defined weak moments, weak characteristic functions, and weak cumulants of all orders. These extend classical quantities and retain key algebraic properties such as additivity under independence and natural affine transformation rules. The main results are: (i) a systematic algebra of weak cumulants; (ii) a weak moment problem where existence of all moments holds unconditionally and uniqueness depends on the kernel, with uniqueness results under Gaussian kernels (via Hermite completeness), positive Schwartz kernels with an exponential tail bound and square-integrable densities (via a Carleman-type criterion), and kernels with exponential decay (via Denjoy-Carleman quasi-analyticity); and (iii) a weak central limit theorem formulated as convergence of weak characteristic functions to a Gaussian limit, covering cases where the classical theorem fails. The framework is illustrated with Student's $t$, stable, and hyperbolic distributions. As a statistical consequence, the weak first moment yields a consistent estimator of the location parameter in the Cauchy model, where no classical moment-based estimator exists. A full statistical treatment is given in a companion paper.

22.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

HRIR-Former: Grid-Free Time-Domain Reconstruction of Head-Related Impulse Responses with a Spatially Encoded Transformer

arXiv:2603.27998v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Individualized head-related impulse responses (HRIRs) enable binaural rendering, but dense per-listener measurements are costly. We address HRIR spatial up-sampling from sparse per-listener measurements: given a few measured HRIRs for a listener, predict HRIRs at unmeasured target directions. Prior learning methods often work in the frequency domain, rely on minimum-phase assumptions or separate timing models, and use a fixed direction grid, which can degrade temporal fidelity and spatial continuity. We propose HRIR-Former, a time-domain, grid-free binaural Transformer for reconstructing HRIRs at arbitrary directions from sparse inputs. It uses sinusoidal spatial features, a Conv1D refinement module, and auxiliary interaural time difference (ITD) and interaural level difference (ILD) heads. On SONICOM, it improves normalized mean squared error (NMSE), cosine distance, and ITD/ILD errors over prior methods; ablations validate modules and show minimum-phase preprocessing is unnecessary.

23.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-12

Sociodemographic and health correlates of reimbursement authorizations for cannabis for medical purposes in Canadian veterans: A cross-sectional study linking the Life After Services Studies 2019 and Health Administrative Databases

Background Evidence on factors associated with cannabis for medical purposes (CMP) authorizations among Veterans Affairs Canada (VAC) clients remains limited and inconsistent, particularly concerning mental health and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), a leading indication for use. We investigated demographic, clinical and service characteristics associated with VAC authorizations for CMP reimbursement. Method We linked VAC administrative CMP program data with responses from the 2019 Life After Services Studies cross-sectional survey of Regular Force veterans released between 1998 and 2018. Multivariable logistic regressions examined associations between CMP reimbursement (yes/no) and demographic, clinical and well-being factors, with analyses stratified by PTSD status. Results Among 1,289 respondents (weighted n=33,131), 18.4% were authorized for CMP reimbursement. Younger age (

24.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-12

Does the method matter? Evaluating the effectiveness, efficiency and ease of hearing-aid gain self-adjustment

In conventional hearing-aid personalisation, clinicians cannot hear what their patients hear, and patients cannot often reliably detect or describe what they hear. Self-adjustment avoids this issue but requires user controls that adjust hearing-aid signal processing parameters to be effective, efficient and easy. In this study, we explored (a) the roles of interface complexity and stimulus type in the self-adjustment of hearing-aid gain, and (b) how well individuals can adjust one sound to match another to assess the same interfaces and stimuli. Adult hearing-aid users with mild to moderate symmetrical sensorineural hearing loss repeatedly adjusted the gain (a) to their preference from individual prescription (n = 41) and (b) to match their previous preferences from a random starting point (n = 32) using three interfaces representing different bass/mid/treble configurations and three stimuli (music, speech and speech-in-noise). The large interindividual variability in self-adjusted gains clustered into three patterns of deviation from initial prescription: increased relative bass, overall gain reduction, and close to initial prescription. There were no substantial effects of interface nor stimulus on self-adjustment reliability (median {sigma} = 2.8 dB), whereas absolute sound-matching error increased with increasing interface complexity and centre frequency. Neither individual matching accuracy nor questionnaire responses predicted either self-adjusted gains or reliability. Overall, these results show that many - but not all - hearing-aid users can adjust gains with reasonable reliability, and while it can be difficult to predict the behaviour from the individual, the individual applies a similar self-adjustment behaviour across different interfaces and stimuli.

25.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-17

Descriptor: Certus Caliber Classification Gunshot Dataset (C3GD)

arXiv:2606.18135v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: In this work, we introduce the Certus Caliber Classification Gunshot Dataset (C3GD), a publicly accessible data set developed for the analysis of firearm muzzle blast sounds. The dataset aims to provide a wide variety of firearms, calibers, cartridges, microphones, and microphone locations with metadata detailed beyond what is currently otherwise available. It comprises more than 8000 field-collected data points from 28 firearms across 16 calibers. Because data collection in the field is costly, much of the existing research has been done using gunshot audio collected from the internet, which increases the risk of low-quality data and label noise. This dataset is primarily focused on caliber classification, but can also be used for gunshot detection, audio separation, and audio signal processing, providing a diversified and real-world reference. The dataset aims to provide enough diversity to be able to generalize to more real-world applications while also providing enough metadata for detailed academic analysis.