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01.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-19

World Engine: Towards the Era of Post-Training for Autonomous Driving

Autonomous vehicles must operate safely in the real world, where errors can have severe consequences. Although modern end-to-end driving policies excel in routine scenarios, their reliability is limited by the scarcity of safety-critical ``long-tail'' events in real driving datasets. These rare interactions define the practical safety boundary of the learned policy, yet they are difficult to collect at scale in the real world. Here we show that this fundamental limitation can be addressed by post-training pre-trained driving models on synthesized high-stakes interactions. We introduce World Engine, a generative framework that reconstructs high-fidelity interactive environments from real-world logs and systematically extrapolates them into realistic safety-critical variations. This paradigm enables reinforcement-based post-training to align policies with safety constraints, circumventing the physical risks inherent in real-world exploration. On a public benchmark built on nuPlan, World Engine substantially reduces failures in rare safety-critical scenarios and yields significantly larger gains than scaling pre-training data alone. Furthermore, when deployed on a production-scale autonomous driving system, the resulting policy reduces simulated collisions and demonstrates measurable improvements in on-road testing, showing that post-training on synthesized, safety-critical interactions offers a scalable and effective pathway to safer autonomous driving. The full codebase suite, including training, is released to the public.

02.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

Gen-VCoT: Generative Visual Chain-of-Thought Reasoning via Diffusion-Based RGB Intermediate Representations

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) excel at visual reasoning but rely on text-based chain-of-thought (CoT), lacking interpretable visual intermediates. Existing methods use opaque tokens or external tools, missing key properties. We propose Gen-VCoT, a framework using expert vision models to generate RGB images as reasoning intermediates. It has three stages: visual grounding (SAM segmentation), geometric reasoning (Marigold depth maps), and semantic reasoning (Qwen2-VL integration). An adaptive router selects reasoning depth. Evaluations show Gen-VCoT improves spatial (25% better) and depth (50% better) questions, but may hurt simple factual queries. Text CoT outperforms visual intermediates on CLEVR (91.2% vs 62.5%), showing task-dependent optimal representations. Gen-VCoT establishes a new paradigm for interpretable multimodal reasoning.

03.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

LLM Jaggedness Unlocks Scientific Creativity

arXiv:2605.10574v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: As artificial intelligence advances, models are not improving uniformly. Instead, progress unfolds in a jagged fashion, with capabilities growing unevenly across tasks, domains, and model scales. In this work, we examine this dynamic jaggedness through the lens of scientific idea generation. We introduce SciAidanBench, a benchmark of open-ended scientific questions designed to measure the scientific creativity of large language models (LLMs). Given a scientific question, models are asked to generate as many unique and coherent ideas as possible, with the total number of valid responses serving as a proxy for creative potential. Evaluating 19 base models across 8 providers (30 total variants including reasoning versions), we find that jaggedness manifests both across models and within models. First, in a cross-task comparison between general and scientific creativity, improvements in general creativity do not translate uniformly to scientific creativity, revealing divergent capability profiles across models. Second, at the prompt level, stronger models do not improve uniformly; instead, they exhibit high variability, with bursts of creativity on some questions and limited performance on others. Third, at the domain level, individual models display uneven strengths across scientific subfields, reflecting fragmented internal capability profiles. Finally, we show that this jaggedness can be harnessed. We explore mechanisms of inference-time compute, knowledge pooling, and brainstorming to combine models effectively and construct meta-model ensembles that outperform any single model. Our results position jaggedness not as a limitation, but as a resource, a structural feature of AI progress that, when understood and leveraged, can amplify LLM-driven scientific creativity.

04.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

Classifying by Proxy: Explainable and Reproducible Ensemble of Proxy Tasks for Child Sexual Abuse Imagery Classification

Child Sexual Abuse Imagery (CSAI) classification systems are needed solutions for lessening the psychological impacts often felt by law enforcement agents responsible for evaluating these materials and for efficient removal of these materials from the web. However, due to the nature of the task, researching and developing such systems is not a trivial endeavor. The images are highly sensitive, and the related datasets are under restrictive access regimes, which means most studies in the area are not reproducible or distributable and are therefore hard to compare and validate. More concerning still, most models for this task today lack an aspect often desired by law enforcement agents: explainability. In this paper, we apply an ensemble of Proxy Tasks – tasks that correlate to CSAI classification – yielding improvements in reproducibility, explainability, and security for distribution. This concept is applied for the first time to real CSAI, with a novel selection of relevant Proxy Tasks (selected from the CSAI literature) and training adaptations to the original framework. Our final model achieves competitive results, yielding 91.9% balanced accuracy on the RCPD dataset with the best Proxy Task combination. We furthermore contrast these results with the best-in-class representation learning model, DINO, and show that our ensemble improves accuracy and provides explanations for its classification results, a feature that a single deep learning model can seldom provide.

05.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

CheXGenBench: A Unified Benchmark For Fidelity, Privacy and Utility of Synthetic Chest Radiographs

Structured benchmarks have advanced text-conditional image generation for real-world imagery, however, no such benchmark exists for synthetic radiograph generation. Despite being a highly active area of research, existing studies continue adopting inconsistent evaluation protocols and lack a unified assessment of the three most critical criteria: generative fidelity, privacy risk, and downstream utility. To address these limitations, we introduce CheXGenBench, the first unified evaluation framework for synthetic chest radiograph generation that simultaneously assesses fidelity, privacy risks, and downstream utility across frontier text-to-image (T2I) generative models. Our evaluation protocol, comprising over 20 quantitative metrics, covers 11 leading T2I architectures with plug-and-play integration for newer models. Through a rigorous and fair evaluation protocol, we establish comprehensive baseline state-of-the-art (SoTA) performances across all dimensions to guide future research. Furthermore, our results uncover several limitations of current generative models, which include first, even SoTA models struggle with long-tailed medical distributions; second, models pose high privacy risks regardless of fidelity quality; and third, while synthetic data already benefits downstream classification, it is of limited utility for downstream multimodal tasks. Drawing from these results, we propose concrete research directions to advance the field. The code is available at https://github.com/Raman1121/CheXGenBench

06.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-18

Reasoning as Intersection: Consensus-Frame Alignment for Visual Focus in Video-MLLMs

Reinforcement learning has improved the reasoning ability of large language models, but applying outcome-only rewards to video multimodal large language models (Video-MLLMs) provides limited guidance on which visual evidence should support the answer. Inspired by multisensory integration, where consistent cues can enhance the salience and reliability of perceptual estimates, we introduce Consensus Frame GRPO (CF-GRPO), a temporal-annotation-free process-level reward framework for evidence-aware video reasoning. CF-GRPO constructs a consensus frame prior from intrinsic video cues, including temporal coverage, scene-transition cues, and query-conditioned visual relevance. It then computes a model-side frame-use score from visual and response representations and optimizes their agreement through the Consensus Frame Reward (CFR). With salience-aware sparse aggregation and distribution sharpening, CFR provides a high-contrast reward signal without requiring human temporal annotations. Experiments show that VideoCFR achieves competitive performance across complex video reasoning benchmarks and improves several metrics over representative Video-MLLM and RL baselines, while the consensus prior provides an interpretable view of the evidence frames emphasized during training. The implementation is available at https://github.com/1Pansy/VideoCFR.

07.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Maximum Entropy Inverse Reinforcement Learning for Mean-Field Games with Average Reward

arXiv:2606.16759v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We study inverse reinforcement learning for discrete-time, infinite-horizon mean-field games (MFGs) under an average-reward criterion. Expert demonstrations are assumed to arise from a stationary mean-field equilibrium under an unknown reward, and the goal is to recover a policy explaining the observed behaviour via the maximum causal entropy principle. We formulate the inverse problem by enforcing consistency with the expert mean-field term and long-run feature expectations, treating two reward classes within a unified occupation-measure framework. For finite-dimensional linear rewards, we give a convex dual reformulation with an explicit log-partition objective, and prove smoothness and curvature properties justifying constant-step-size gradient descent. For infinite-dimensional RKHS rewards, we develop a Lagrangian relaxation whose inner-maximising policy is characterised by a soft Bellman equation. The main obstacle is the absence of a discount-factor contraction. We resolve this by introducing a minorisation-based sub-stochastic kernel that yields a strict contraction of the soft Bellman operator. We establish Fréchet differentiability and Lipschitz smoothness of the log-likelihood score, leading to a gradient ascent algorithm with convergence guarantees. Two numerical examples, a malware-spread MFG and an RKHS-based consumer-choice model, show that the recovered policies closely match expert behaviour.

08.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-15

Curvature-Guided Geometric Representation for Protein-Ligand Binding Affinity Prediction

arXiv:2606.14159v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Protein-ligand binding affinity (PLA) prediction is critical in drug discovery. Despite the notable advancements in machine learning-based approaches, existing methods struggle to jointly characterize local geometric organization and globally coordinated cross-molecular interactions, limiting their ability to model complex binding mechanisms. Here, we propose RicciBind, a geometric representation framework that integrates curvature-guided hierarchical structure learning with optimal transport (OT)-based cross-domain alignment to model molecular interactions. Specifically, RicciBind leverages Ricci curvature to capture local interaction tightness within molecular structures, enhancing structural awareness and organizing atomic interactions into curvature-aware hierarchical representations. An OT-based cluster matching mechanism then aligns protein and ligand clusters across heterogeneous domains under geometric constraints, enabling globally consistent correspondences and revealing higher-order interaction patterns beyond local neighborhoods. By coupling curvature-guided structure encoding with OT-driven cross-domain alignment, RicciBind effectively models complex interaction semantics and substantially improves both the accuracy and interpretability of binding affinity prediction. Extensive experiments demonstrate that RicciBind achieved superior predictive performance and generalization across PLA benchmarks and virtual screening tasks. Ablation studies further confirmed the essential role of Ricci curvature in enhancing molecular interaction representations.

09.
Nature (Science) 2026-06-17

Structure of the pre-initiation complex explains CMGE biogenesis

When cells enter S phase, bidirectional DNA replication is initiated through the kinase-regulated recruitment of three activators (Cdc45, GINS and Pol ε) to a duplex-DNA-loaded double hexamer of minichromosome maintenance (MCM) ATPases. Together, these proteins form two CMGE helicases that establish divergent replication forks as they become separated1. Here, to gain an understanding of CMGE biogenesis, we reconstituted the pre-initiation complex with purified yeast proteins. The cryo-electron-microscopy structure shows a set of firing factors caught in the act of assembling two symmetrical CMGEs. We show how stepwise complex formation reshapes MCM in preparation for DNA opening, and we explain how ATP promotes firing-factor ejection and CMGE maturation. We find that although Sld2 facilitates the recruitment of GINS to MCM, as expected, it also aids the efficient separation of the CMGE dimer, and is essential for the ejection of the lagging strand from MCM. These findings have direct implications for our understanding of the metazoan Sld2 orthologue, RECQL4, and point to a replication-fork establishment mechanism that is conserved across eukaryotes. Cryo-electron microscopy and biochemical reconstitution experiments in yeast provide insight into the assembly of the CMGE complex, a helicase that establishes bidirectional DNA replication in eukaryotic cells, and elucidate the role of the firing factor Sld2.

10.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-15

A Fixed-Point Neural Operator for Size- and Functional-Transferable Hamiltonian Prediction

arXiv:2606.14498v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Predicting the Kohn-Sham Hamiltonian with machine learning can accelerate density functional theory while retaining access to molecular orbitals, energy levels, and electronic-structure observables that energy-only surrogates cannot resolve. Yet element-wise agreement with the converged Hamiltonian, an implicit fixed point of the self-consistent field iteration, does not determine the occupied subspace that governs orbital energies and densities. Here we present HamEvo, a neural operator that learns the single-step self-consistent update and returns the converged Hamiltonian as its fixed point. HamEvo is pre-trained on intermediate self-consistent trajectories and calibrated at equilibrium with density-matrix supervision. Across benchmarks from MD17 to drug-like QMugs, HamEvo lowers Hamiltonian errors by 35-49% over direct-regression and deep-equilibrium baselines, and predicts QMugs HOMO and LUMO energies with mean absolute errors of 0.036 and 0.053 eV, near the 1 kcal/mol chemical-accuracy scale. Few-shot fine-tuning with only 20 reference conformations extends HamEvo to molecules of up to 122 atoms, well beyond the size range covered by pre-training. With thermal molecular-dynamics sampling, HamEvo captures temperature-dependent HOMO-LUMO gap renormalization beyond the harmonic approximation. Inference is up to 242 times faster than conventional DFT.

11.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-15

Active Inference for Adaptive Traffic Signal Control in Noisy Nonstationary IoT Environments

arXiv:2606.13698v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Urban traffic signal control at IoT-instrumented intersections must remain effective under sensor occlusion, weather attenuation, and nonstationary demand. Conventional controllers degrade under these conditions, and learned policies remain difficult to audit. To address these challenges, we propose an active inference controller for a four-arm signalized intersection that dynamically selects phases by minimizing expected free energy (EFE) over Gaussian beliefs about per-direction congestion levels, yielding a fully traceable decision pipeline. We benchmark the controller in a SUMO traffic simulator against a rule-based heuristic and a deep Q-network (DQN) across four scenarios that progressively increase noise and nonstationarity, spanning sensor occlusion, adverse weather, and stochastic accidents. Across 100 independent random evaluations per scenario, active inference attains the lowest idle times and CO2 emissions in the noisiest scenarios (56,977 s and 29.12 kg vs. 71,741 s and 30.56 kg for DQN). These gains come at a modest cost in bus priority service rate and phase switch frequency.

12.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-18

Predicting Motor Recovery After Stroke: Utility and Limits of Corticospinal Tract Biomarkers

Background: Corticospinal tract (CST) damage is a major cause of post-stroke motor deficits. However, it remains unclear which estimates of CST damage best predict motor recovery, especially regarding different aspects of motor control. While conventional CST-lesion metrics offer superior feasibility, data-driven machine learning (ML) approaches may better capture patients propensity for task-specific recovery with important implication for their use as future clinical biomarkers. Methods: Providing the first direct longitudinal comparison of these approaches based exclusively on CST-lesion patterns, we evaluated six conventional CST-lesion metrics and a voxel-wise ML approach using clinical MRI data from 127 acute ischemic stroke patients. Acute impairment and outcome (>3 months post-stroke) were assessed for basal and complex motor functions. Conventional CST-lesion metrics and ML were used to predict task-specific motor impairment and outcome. Results: All conventional CST-lesion metrics correlated significantly with both acute impairment and motor outcome across motor domains, with metrics weighted for CST narrowing and tract probability performing best. However, predictive performance for unseen patients was low. ML outperformed conventional markers in predicting acute impairment across motor domains and basal motor outcome, but failed to predict complex motor outcome. Topographically, predictive voxels clustered within and above the posterior limb of the internal capsule, with distinct CST subregions associated with basal versus complex motor impairment, consistent with a task-specific somatotopic organization. Conclusions: The predictive utility of CST biomarkers was task- and timepoint-dependent. While ML may improve predictive performance, complex motor outcome remained difficult to predict, likely reflecting greater reliance on distributed cortical reorganization beyond the CST. By revealing task-specific CST subregions, voxel-wise ML provides an anatomically informed foundation for future predictive models. Such future models should combine CST biomarkers with measures of broader motor network integrity to enable individualized prognosis tailored to specific motor domains and recovery stages.

13.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-12

Select to Think: Unlocking SLM Potential with Local Sufficiency

Small language models (SLMs) offer efficient deployment, yet they often lag behind their larger counterparts (LLMs) in reasoning. Existing remedies either invoke an LLM at points of reasoning divergence, incurring substantial latency and cost, or rely on standard distillation, which is limited by the SLM's capacity to accurately mimic the LLM's complex generative distribution. We address this dilemma by identifying local sufficiency: at divergence points, the LLM's preferred token often resides within the SLM's top-K next-token predictions, even when failing to emerge as the SLM top-1 choice. We therefore propose Select to Think (S2T), which reframes the LLM's role from open-ended generation to selection among the SLM's proposals, simplifying the supervision signal to discrete candidate rankings. Leveraging this, we introduce S2T-Local, which distills the selection logic into the SLM, empowering it to perform autonomous re-ranking without inference-time LLM dependency. Empirically, a 1.5B SLM's top-8 candidates contain the 32B LLM's choice with a 95% hit rate, and S2T-Local improves the 1.5B SLM's Math Avg. over greedy decoding by 24.1% relative gain, matching the efficacy of 8-path self-consistency with single-trajectory efficiency.

14.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

TelcoAgent: A Scalable 5G Multi-KPM Forecasting With 3GPP-Grounded Explainability

arXiv:2606.19821v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Key Performance Measurement (KPM) forecasting is essential for proactive network management of 5G and next-generation telecom networks. However, existing machine learning (ML) approaches face significant limitations in scalability and explainability, restricting their effectiveness in real-world deployments. We propose TelcoAgent, a foundation model-based framework that enables accurate, scalable, and explainable forecasting of multiple KPMs across diverse network cells without the need for site-specific training. Specifically, the framework comprises three key components: (i) an automated three-agent pipeline that constructs a 3rd Generation Partnership Project (3GPP) knowledge graph directly from specification documents, (ii) a scalable, time-series foundation model (TSFM)-based prediction pipeline to deliver accurate, zero-shot forecasting, and finally (iii) a reasoning and explanation pipeline that provides actionable, domain-grounded diagnostics. Evaluated using a 3-month, real-world, city-scale 5G KPM dataset from a U.S.-based network operator, TelcoAgent demonstrates high forecasting accuracy for all 7 considered KPMs per cell across 200 cells, while delivering explainable insights and actionable instructions to address network degradations.

15.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-12

Analog Quantum Asynchronous Event-Based Graph Neural Network

arXiv:2606.11000v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Asynchronous, event-based graph neural networks (AEGNNs) have recently emerged as an efficient paradigm for processing the sparse and high-temporal-resolution data from event cameras. In this paper, we propose quantum analog AEGNNs (QA-AEGNNs), a novel framework to implement an AEGNN on a neutral-atom quantum computer. Neutral-atom quantum processors offer a programmable analog quantum computing platform based on controllable Rydberg-atom interactions. To this end, we map the streaming event data to an array of trapped neutral atoms, where each atom represents a graph node (event) and is positioned such that geometric proximity reflects the spatio-temporal neighborhood of events. The native Rydberg Hamiltonian of the quantum processor is programmed to mirror the message-passing computations of the AEGNN, with atomic qubit states serving as node feature embeddings and inter-atom interactions realizing graph edges. Furthermore, we propose a hybrid quantum-classical training scheme in which the analog Hamiltonian parameters (e.g., laser pulse amplitudes and detunings) are optimized using classical feedback to learn the quantum AEGNN model from data. Our approach leverages the continuous Hamiltonian dynamics and massive parallelism of neutral-atom quantum systems to natively execute event-based graph computations with potential accuracy improvements

16.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

We Need Explanation Cards to Connect Explanation Algorithms to the Real World

arXiv:2606.16786v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Algorithmic explanations are intended to help stakeholders understand opaque algorithmic decisions, but in practice, they often fall short. First, the meaning of algorithmic explanations is often not what one might intuitively expect, so expert knowledge is required to interpret them correctly. Second, recent work has shown that popular explanation algorithms are uninformative about the behavior of complex decision functions. Together, these issues create a gap between what explanations appear to convey and what they actually provide. In this work, we propose Explanation Cards for Explanation Algorithms, which augment standard explanations with complementary information about robustness and validity, as well as clear instructions for interpretation. The complementary information can render otherwise uninformative explanations practically useful, while also helping to detect cases where they are not. Importantly, the interpretation instructions in explanation cards shift responsibility from users to providers: Rather than expecting users to recognize what can and cannot be concluded from an explanation, providers must make this explicit upfront. Using counterfactual explanations and SHAP as examples, we demonstrate how providers can construct explanation cards and that these cards provide users with the guidance needed for sound interpretation. We further argue that explanation cards offer a practical means of operationalising the explainability provisions of the EU AI Act. Overall, explanation cards are a significant step toward making explanation algorithms fit for real-world use cases.

17.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-19

Observation of alignment tensor effects in metastability-exchange collisions with highly polarized 3He ensembles

arXiv:2606.20330v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Highly polarized 3He ensembles prepared by metastability-exchange optical pumping (MEOP) have been widely used in precision measurements and fundamental physics. Metastability-exchange (ME) collisions, serving as the basis of MEOP, are traditionally described in terms of atomic orientation, while the significant contributions of metastable alignment tensor at high polarization remain unexplored. In this work, we develop a linearized model under mean-field approximation to investigate alignment tensor effects in highly polarized 3He , which originate from the metastable F = 3/2 manifold and are revealed through ME-induced relaxation and frequency shift. By means of free-induction-decay (FID) measurements, a pronounced dependence on nuclear polarization is experimentally observed in the response of the ground-state-metastable hybrid 3He ensembles to the external magnetic field. Furthermore, after obtaining the characteristics of tensor-induced phenomena, we demonstrate good agreement between the experiment and the theory. This work advances the understanding of nuclear spin dynamics in highly polarized 3He using MEOP. It further provides applications in systematic error correction of high-accuracy magnetometry, as well as in optimal protocol for the generation of nuclear spin-squeezed states.

18.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-12

From Uncertain Judgments to Calibrated Rankings: Conformal Elo Estimation for LLM Evaluation

arXiv:2606.13221v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Evaluating new large language models typically requires costly human annotation campaigns at scale. LLM-as-a-judge offers a cheaper alternative, but judge scores carry systematic errors - such as position bias, self-preference, or intransitivity - that can strongly miscalibrate the resulting rankings. We quantify the resulting judge-human disagreement at two complementary levels. At the local level, we estimate per-battle uncertainty from the judge's own score differences by propagating calibrated win probabilities rather than hard labels into the Bradley-Terry procedure. This alone provides a drastic improvement to Elo estimation accuracy, bringing LLM-derived ratings within 17.9 Elo MAE of human-derived ones when averaged over 55 held-out models on LMArena. At the global level, we apply split conformal prediction to the residual gap between LLM-derived and human-derived Elo ratings across held-out models, producing prediction intervals with distribution-free marginal coverage guarantees that account for irreducible LLM-human disagreement. Together, these two layers yield a low-cost evaluation tool that provides developers with calibrated Elo estimates and honest uncertainty bounds, without access to large-scale human annotations.To facilitate reproducibility, we release our code at https://github.com/kargibora/SoftElo .

19.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-15

PostDeg: Placement Beats Parameterization in LayerNorm GNNs

arXiv:2606.14022v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: LayerNorm-based GNNs routinely erase the topology signals (degree, centrality, $k$-core) that node-selection policies should depend on, but the literature has not located where in the residual block the erasure happens. We answer that question: a positive per-node scalar inserted before LayerNorm is divided out up to a stabilizer term, while the same scalar inserted after LayerNorm reaches the score head as representation magnitude. The surviving slot is the post-LayerNorm position. We instantiate it with PostDeg, a parameter-free post-LayerNorm inverse-degree scale, and pre-register four falsifiers (graphwise scalars, extra LayerNorm, expressive same-slot capacity, backbone-agnostic source) that would reject the rule. PostDeg gains $+3.5\%/+2.5\%/+5.6\%$ over the LN backbone on influence maximization, network dismantling, and maximum independent set, with $10/10$ paired-seed wins per task; none of the four falsifiers fires. The takeaway is that placement, not parameterization, carries the gain – a small invariance check that generalizes to any positive topology scalar in any normalized residual stack.

20.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-15

Capability Minimization as a Safety Primitive: Risk-Aware Causal Gating for Least-Privilege LLM Agents

arXiv:2606.13884v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Modern decision systems increasingly rely on learned components whose outputs may be confident yet wrong, exposing downstream actions to costly errors. We introduce Risk-Aware Causal Gating (RACG), a framework that decides whether to act on, defer, or abstain from a model's prediction by combining causal effect estimation with calibrated risk control. RACG models the causal pathway from candidate actions to outcomes and gates each decision according to an estimated counterfactual risk rather than raw predictive confidence. To make gating reliable, we derive distribution-free bounds on the probability of acting under high-risk conditions and show how these bounds translate into operating thresholds that satisfy user-specified safety constraints. We further propose an adaptive gating policy that adjusts to distribution shift by monitoring discrepancies between predicted and realized outcomes, tightening the gate when causal assumptions appear violated. Across simulated interventions and real-world decision benchmarks, RACG reduces high-cost errors substantially while preserving most of the utility of an ungated policy, and it outperforms confidence-based and selective-prediction baselines at matched abstention rates. Our results indicate that explicitly separating causal risk from predictive uncertainty yields decision systems that are both safer and more transparent, offering a principled mechanism for trustworthy automation in high-stakes settings.

21.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-15

Identifiable Markov Switching Models with Instantaneous Effects and Exponential Families

arXiv:2606.02231v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Temporal systems often exhibit non-stationary behaviour, such as seasonal climate variation or glucose fluctuations in patients with type-1 diabetes. One way to model non-stationarity is through discrete latent regimes, i.e., stationary segments of time. Such systems induce a Markov Switching Model (MSM), a class of Hidden Markov Models with autoregressive dependencies among latent regimes and observed variables. Identifying latent regimes is challenging in the presence of frequent regime switches and nonlinear and non-Gaussian dynamics, particularly when there are instantaneous effects between the variables, e.g., due to slow rates of measurements. In this work, we establish the identifiability of both latent regimes and regime-dependent causal structures under temporal regime dependencies, nonlinear lagged and instantaneous effects, and independent noise from the exponential family. Our identifiability theory subsumes non-temporal mixtures of causal models. Furthermore, we introduce FlowMSM, a regime detection framework that can be paired with any stationary causal discovery method to recover regime-dependent causal structures. Experiments on synthetic benchmarks and a financial economics dataset demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach to detect latent regimes and discover causal structures from non-stationary time series.

22.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

Bayesian 3D Steerable CNNs: Enabling Equivariance and Uncertainty Quantification Simultaneously

arXiv:2606.15479v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Steerable convolutional neural networks (Steerable-CNNs) guarantee SE(3)-equivariance by parameterizing kernels as linear combinations of steerable basis functions, but their deterministic nature precludes uncertainty quantification - limiting their use in settings where confidence estimates are essential. We propose a Bayesian Steerable-CNN that places posterior distributions over the basis coefficients, yielding stochastic kernels while preserving equivariance exactly. The loss function of the model is obtained via variational inference and minimized by Bayes-by-Backpropagation. The framework admits a decomposition of predictive uncertainty into epistemic and aleatoric components. Empirically, the model attains competitive classification accuracy alongside an expected calibration error of 0.0263 and outperforms its deterministic counterpart by up to 6.17% under distributional shift induced by additive Gaussian noise. Furthermore, we leverage the model's uncertainty estimates to enhance its performance significantly, achieving a notable gain - approximately 4% higher accuracy across 84% of the test dataset. A statistically significant negative correlation between epistemic uncertainty and prediction error confirms that the learned posterior variance is semantically meaningful. The framework unifies Bayesian uncertainty quantification with the inductive bias of equivariant CNNs.

23.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

FairGen: Preference-Aligned Diffusion for Demographically Equitable Medical Image Synthesis

Medical imaging is central to modern diagnostics, and artificial intelligence (AI) systems are increasingly used to support image-based analysis by improving efficiency, accuracy, and access to care. However, inequities in healthcare access and differential disease prevalence create severe demographic imbalances in clinical image data. Such imbalances are compounded by the fact that diseases can manifest with distinct features across demographic groups, rendering certain phenotypic presentations naturally rare. AI models trained on such imbalanced data risk perpetuating diagnostic bias and widening healthcare disparities. Here we introduce FairGen, a fairness-aware diffusion framework that synthesizes demographically balanced medical images while preserving pathology-relevant visual features. By embedding physician-aligned preferences into the generation process, FairGen improves subgroup coverage during synthesis and downstream classification. Applied to dermatology, radiology, and neuroimaging benchmark tasks, FairGen achieves fairness improvements of 95.9% for skin images, 80.0% for chest radiography, and 35.2% for brain MRI, while maintaining competitive diagnostic accuracy relative to models trained on original clinical data. Clinician-facing expert review and external validation on independent cohorts further support that these gains extend beyond standard fidelity metrics and are not confined to the original in-distribution datasets.

24.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-17

Hybrid Ferromagnet-SNSPDs: Single photon induced order-to-disorder transition in ferromagnets coupled to thin film superconductors

arXiv:2606.17177v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: The development of midwave and longwave infrared single photon detectors is crucial for their emerging applications in spectroscopy, remote sensing, exoplanet detection, and free space quantum communications. However, existing sensors need to be operated at extremely low temperatures (0.08-0.9K) to reduce dark noise and hence require the use of advanced cryogenics such as dilution refrigerators or $^3$He cryogens, significantly limiting applications. Here we propose a vortex-engineering approach based on a hybrid phase transition in a ferromagnet/superconductor bilayer to increase the operating temperature of infrared single photon detectors up to 3.75K. We show that the introduction of a ferromagnetic layer produces a local magnetic field which impedes vortex crossing in the superconductor, reducing dark noise. When a single photon is incident, the photon-induced hotspot causes an order-to-disorder transition in the ferromagnet, leading to a vortex-induced phase transition in the superconducting layer. By engineering the ferromagnet's Curie temperature to be close to the device's operating temperature, single photon sensitivity can be achieved at increased operating temperatures. We predict at midwave/longwave infrared wavelengths (3-14$\mu$m) the operating temperature can be raised to 3.25-3.75K, enabling significantly simpler cooling systems.

25.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-17

MoonSplat: Monocular Online Gaussian Splatting with Sim(3) Global Optimization

Online 3D reconstruction from monocular image sequences is a challenging and ongoing research topic. 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS), leveraging its high-quality real-time rendering capability, empowers online 3D reconstruction to represent dense scenes with enhanced expressiveness, and thus holds great promise for a wide range of applications such as robotics and AR/VR. However, existing online 3DGS methods still suffer from some key challenges: fragile camera pose estimation due to the lack of global optimization, and low optimization efficiency in large-scale or long-sequence scenarios. To address these issues, we propose a robust and efficient online voxelized 3DGS reconstruction framework integrated with global $Sim(3)$ optimization, which enables reliable camera tracking and efficient global loop closure for both camera poses and voxelized 3DGS. To accelerate the convergence of the voxelized 3DGS, we further introduce a color residual learning strategy, which not only boosts optimization speed but also enhances rendering quality. Extensive experiments on diverse indoor and outdoor datasets demonstrate that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance in both camera pose estimation accuracy and rendering quality, while retaining real-time efficiency. Additionally, we develop and deploy a real-world UAV-based active reconstruction system grounded on our proposed method, validating its robustness and generalizability for practical online 3D reconstruction tasks. Our code and data are available at https://github.com/TrickyGo/MoonSplat.