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01.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

UrbanWell: Benchmarking Multimodal Large Language Models for Spatio-Temporal Urban Wellbeing Analytics

arXiv:2606.15890v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Understanding urban wellbeing from multimodal data requires integrating heterogeneous spatial and temporal signals, posing significant challenges for current multimodal large language models (MLLMs). We introduce UrbanWell, a large-scale benchmark designed to systematically evaluate the spatio-temporal reasoning capabilities of MLLMs for urban wellbeing analytics through joint modeling of satellite and street view imagery. UrbanWell spans 38 cities across multiple years and includes diverse indicators covering (1) environmental conditions (CO$_2$, NO$_2$, PM${2.5}$, and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), (2) spatial accessibility (minimum distance to supermarkets and restaurants), (3) urban form (road length, road density, and land use), (4) urban vitality (population, economic activity diversity, and land use diversity), and (5) subjective perception attributes (e.g., safety, beauty, liveliness, wealth, and quietness). All indicators are aligned at grid level to enable standardized evaluation. Beyond static prediction, UrbanWell defines temporal reasoning tasks, including future value forecasting from historical observations and temporal trend classification. We benchmark 15 state-of-the-art representative MLLMs in a zero-shot setting, providing a comprehensive comparative evaluation across spatial and temporal dimensions. Experimental results indicate that while MLLMs capture salient spatial and perceptual cues, their performance varies substantially across heterogeneous urban indicators spanning environment and subjective perception. UrbanWell serves as a unified benchmark for evaluating multimodal spatial and temporal reasoning in urban wellbeing analytics, offering a standardized testbed for systematic assessment and future research on multimodal urban intelligence. Our codes and datasets are accessible via https://github.com/axin1301/UrbanWell-Benchmark.

02.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-19

Majorana bound states in a hybrid Kitaev ladder with long-range pairing

arXiv:2606.19963v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We investigate an inter-leg coupled hybrid Kitaev ladder composed of two parallel superconducting chains with distinct pairing interactions. The upper chain of the ladder hosts conventional $p$-wave pairing, while the lower chain exhibits long-range pairing that decays algebraically with distance. We demonstrate that the mutual influence of long-range pairing exponent, chemical potential, and inter-leg coupling strength gives rise to a rich topological phase diagram characterized by multiple Majorana zero modes and massive Dirac modes. In particular, we show that the inter-leg coupling renormalizes the effective energy scales, leading to a systematic shift of the topological phase boundaries and enabling controlled tuning of the Majorana modes. Furthermore, we identify a transition from a two Majorana zero mode phase to a phase encapsulating four Majorana zero modes, as the long-range pairing exponent is varied. This transition is accompanied by a crossover regime in which Majorana zero modes coexist with massive Dirac modes, reflecting hybridization between edge and bulk excitations. This ladder thus provides a minimal and attractive platform for realizing the impact of a long-range pairing on topological phases. Our results highlight the potential of long-range hybrid systems for engineering tunable topological states relevant for quantum information applications.

03.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Functional Gradient Descent with Adaptive Representations

arXiv:2606.16926v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Functional optimization problems are typically solved by optimizing the parameters of a fixed representation, such as a neural network, resulting in highly nonconvex losses that complicate both training and theoretical analysis. An interesting alternative is functional gradient descent (FGD), that is, gradient descent directly in function space, which benefits from strong convergence results and admits a clean theory. However, FGD is difficult to implement in practice because functional gradients are infinite-dimensional, and thus cannot be fully computed nor stored in memory. Existing implementations therefore rely on fixed approximations, which introduce approximation error. We propose a new, theoretically-grounded FGD algorithm that adapts the representation of the functional gradients over the course of optimization. By explicitly incorporating this approximation into the analysis, we establish convergence to a stationary point (for smooth losses) and to a global minimizer (under smoothness + a Polyak-Lojasiewicz-type condition) regardless of our approximations. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first implementable FGD method with such guarantees in a general setting. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on regression, numerical solution of PDEs, and modern computer vision. Across settings, our method consistently outperforms both FGD with fixed approximations and neural network baselines in efficiency and accuracy.

04.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

Data-Driven Decoding of Russell's Circumplex Model of Affect

Affective computing increasingly relies on deep learning to represent emotions, yet latent spaces often remain opaque, high-dimensional black boxes. This paper investigates whether Transformers' embeddings recover the geometric regularities of Russell's circumplex model. We unify two complementary experiments testing the hypothesis that, after training models on text and speech, their resulting latent spaces encode a topology consistent with valence-arousal and reproduce human-like neighborhood relations. Specifically, we evaluate deep representations extracted from Transformer-based text (RoBERTa) and speech (wav2vec 2.0) encoders, along with a multimodal Transformer fusion architecture, across naturalistic datasets like MSP-Podcast and controlled LLM-generated stimuli. Our analysis reveals that multimodal fusion of text and audio yields perfect topological alignment with Russell's primary emotion ordering. Furthermore, in a zero-shot setting using generic text embeddings, projected fine-grained emotion terms fall close to their established human-mapped coordinates. Our contribution is a novel, data-driven framework for validating emotion models, demonstrating that Russell's circumplex structure is intrinsically encoded in the embeddings of these modalities rather than being solely an artifact of human labeling, thereby bridging the gap between psychological theory and representation learning.

05.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-17

LLM-Powered Multi-Agent System for Automated Crypto Portfolio Management

arXiv:2501.00826v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Cryptocurrency portfolio management requires the fusion of heterogeneous multi-modal signals, including structured price and on-chain time series, unstructured news text, and technical indicators, under high-volatility and real-time constraints. While deep learning approaches show predictive capability, their opacity limits practical adoption, and single large language model (LLM) agents struggle to process the breadth of modality-specific inputs needed for robust decision-making. We propose a multi-agent system (MAS) framework in which three modality-specialised agents, a Crypto Agent for market dynamics, a News Agent for weekly news sentiment, and a Trading Agent for signal fusion and portfolio execution, decompose the task across three communication architectures: hierarchical, collaborative, and debate. We evaluate four capability configurations: zero-shot, chain-of-thought (CoT), retrieval-augmented generation (RAG), and skill-augmented. In a 52-week backtest over calendar year 2025 across the top 15 L1 blockchain native cryptocurrencies by market capitalisation as of January 2025, the best configuration, Hierarchical (Skill), achieves a cumulative return of 133.52% and a Sharpe ratio of 1.502, outperforming single-agent variants, passive benchmarks, and deep learning baselines. An ablation study identifies the Crypto Agent as the most critical component, with its removal reducing cumulative return by 42.57 percentage points. A cross-model comparison further shows that MAS outperforms the single-agent baseline under GPT-4o, GPT-5, and Claude Sonnet 4.5, suggesting that the benefit of multi-agent coordination is model-agnostic. Unlike black-box deep learning models, every portfolio decision is traceable to explicit agent reasoning, offering an interpretable and effective approach to multi-modal cryptocurrency portfolio management.

06.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-11

Arrangements of Consecutive Numbers in Mallows Permutations

arXiv:2606.12410v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We study the random variable that counts the number of specific arrangements of clustered consecutive numbers in permutations under the Mallows distribution. We provide an asymptotic expression for the expected value of this random variable. This result extends and tightens the previously known result by Pinsky (2022) concerning clustered consecutive numbers in Mallows permutations. Moreover, we identify a range of parameters for which the distribution of the number of arrangements of clustered consecutive numbers in Mallows permutations is close to a Poisson distribution.

07.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-11

Auditing Demographic Bias in Facial Landmark Detection for Fair Human-Robot Interaction

Fairness in human-robot interaction critically depends on the reliability of the perceptual models that enable robots to interpret human behavior. While demographic biases have been widely studied in high-level facial analysis tasks, their presence in facial landmark detection remains unexplored. In this paper, we conduct a systematic audit of demographic bias in this task, analyzing the age, gender, and race biases. To this end, we introduce a controlled statistical methodology to disentangle demographic effects from confounding visual factors. Our analysis demonstrates that visual confounders, particularly head pose and face resolution, heavily outweigh the impact of demographic attributes. Notably, after accounting for these confounders, performance disparities across gender and race vanish. However, we identify a statistically significant age-related bias, with higher localization errors for older individuals. This shows that fairness issues can emerge even in low-level vision components and can propagate through the HRI pipeline. We argue that auditing and correcting such biases is a necessary step toward trustworthy and equitable robot perception systems.

08.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-11

Approximation Properties of Evolutionary Dynamics in Continuous-Time Finite State Space Games

Authors:

arXiv:2606.11193v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: This thesis studies the convergence of finite-population stochastic evolutionary dynamics to their deterministic mean-field limit in continuous-time finite state space games. We first develop refined ergodic theorems for Markov chains with a single positive-recurrent class, guaranteeing the existence of a unique invariant distribution and almost-sure convergence of time averages. Next, we prove that the mean-field model, described by a system of Lipschitz-continuous ordinary differential equations, admits a unique solution that depends continuously on its initial condition and that constitutes the almost-sure limit for the empirical distributions with fixed policy. Furthermore, we show that every Mixed Stationary Nash Equilibrium of the mean-field game is approximated by a Nash equilibrium of the corresponding $N$-player game within an error $\epsilon$ for sufficiently large $N$. We finally demonstrate, by Kurtz's theorem, that the empirical state-policy distribution converges in probability to the mean-field trajectory. Numerical simulations conducted in MATLAB confirm the theoretical $\mathcal{O}(N^{-1/2})$ convergence rate in both models across a range of population sizes.

09.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19

Streaming Interventions: Can Video Large Language Models Correct Mistakes as They Occur?

arXiv:2606.09547v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Learning everyday skills, like cooking a dish, relies increasingly on instructional media such as online videos. This opens the door to the use of video (and multimodal) large language models (LLMs) as task guidance assistants. A crucial capability for the real-world success of a prospective task guidance assistant is it's ability to intervene proactively as soon as a mistake is apparent in order to guide the user. To evaluate this crucial capability, we introduce Ego-MC-Bench (Mistake Corrections), a benchmark for evaluating reactive, step-by-step task guidance in realistic cooking scenarios. Extensive experiments show that Ego-MC-Bench is highly challenging for state-of-the-art video LLMs. We argue that a key reason is the limited availability of training data for fine-tuning models on this task. Although there exists a wide range of cooking video datasets, existing datasets lack examples of mistakes along with appropriately timed interventions. To help address this data limitation, we also introduce Ego-CoMist, a counterfactual synthetic dataset created by transforming non -interactive cooking videos into supervised training examples showing proactive interventions. We show that fine-tuning on Ego-CoMist yields performance gains especially for smaller and more efficient video LLMs that are well suited for delivering assistance on edge devices.

10.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Analytic Torsion and Spectral Gap Capture Persistent-Laplacian Performance

arXiv:2606.16990v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: While persistent Laplacians (PL) offer a richer geometric representation of data than persistent homology, utilizing their full eigenspectrum for learning tasks is often hampered by high dimensionality and the ``varying length'' problem across different filtration scales. We propose a compact spectral representation that distills the persistent Laplacian into three mathematically grounded invariants: Betti numbers, the spectral gap, and analytic torsion. Across benchmark datasets including MNIST, QM-3D, and SKEMPI WT, we demonstrate that this reduced feature space captures the essential predictive signal of the full spectrum, and in some cases outperforms it, while significantly reducing computational overhead and preventing the noise introduced by higher-frequency eigenvalues. Our results suggest that these invariants provide a principled, fixed-length interface between spectral geometry and topological learning.

11.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19

TetriServe: Efficiently Serving Mixed DiT Workloads

arXiv:2510.01565v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Diffusion Transformer (DiT) models excel at generating high-quality images through iterative denoising steps, but serving them under strict Service Level Objectives (SLOs) is challenging due to their high computational cost, particularly at larger resolutions. Existing serving systems use fixed-degree sequence parallelism, which is inefficient for heterogeneous workloads with mixed resolutions and deadlines, leading to poor GPU utilization and low SLO attainment. In this paper, we propose step-level sequence parallelism to dynamically adjust the degree of parallelism of individual requests according to their deadlines. We present TetriServe, a DiT serving system that implements this strategy for highly efficient image generation. Specifically, TetriServe introduces a novel round-based scheduling mechanism that improves SLO attainment by (1) discretizing time into fixed rounds to make deadline-aware scheduling tractable, (2) adapting parallelism at the step level and minimizing GPU hour consumption, and (3) jointly packing requests to minimize late completions. Extensive evaluation on state-of-the-art DiT models shows that TetriServe achieves up to 32% higher SLO attainment compared to existing solutions without degrading image quality.

12.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-19

On creating convexity in high dimensions

arXiv:2502.10382v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Given a subset $A$ of $\mathbb{R}^n$, we define \begin{align*} \mathrm{conv}_k(A) := \left\{ \lambda_1 s_1 + \cdots + \lambda_k s_k : \lambda_i \in [0,1], \sum_{i=1}^k \lambda_i = 1 , s_i \in A \right\} \end{align*} to be the set of vectors in $\mathbb{R}^n$ that can be written as a $k$-fold convex combination of vectors in $A$. Let $\gamma_n$ denote the standard Gaussian measure on $\mathbb{R}^n$. We show that for every $\varepsilon > 0$, there exists a subset $A$ of $\mathbb{R}^n$ with Gaussian measure $\gamma_n(A) \geq 1- \varepsilon$ such that for all $k = O_\varepsilon(\sqrt{\log \log(n)})$, $\mathrm{conv}_k(A)$ contains no convex set $K$ of Gaussian measure $\gamma_n(K) \geq \varepsilon$. This result acts as a complement to the recent affirmative resolution of Talagrand's convexity conjecture by Hua, Song, and Tudose, which states that a universal dilation of the threefold Minkowski sum $A+A+A$ of a large set $A$ guarantees a large convex subset. Our approach utilises concentration properties of random copulas and the application of optimal transport techniques to the empirical coordinate measures of vectors in high dimensions.

13.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-15

Verbatim Chunks Beat Extracted Artifacts: A Controlled Ablation of Memory Representations for Long LLM Conversations

Authors:

A growing class of conversational-memory systems compresses dialogue history into structured artifacts – extracted facts, decisions, or events – on the premise that distilled structure retrieves better than raw text. We test this premise with a controlled ablation: within one fixed retrieval-rerank-reasoning pipeline, we swap only the stored representation – LLM-extracted typed artifacts versus verbatim conversation chunks – holding the model, retriever, reranker, and judge constant. Verbatim chunks win by 15.9 points on LoCoMo (43.9% vs. 28.0%) and 22.0 points on LongMemEval-S (67.4% vs. 45.4%); a 1-hop semantic graph does not recover the gap, and five confound controls reproduce the effect. The mechanism is lossy distillation: extraction discards verbatim detail that chunks retain for free, and the extracted-artifact pipeline never beats naive RAG in overall accuracy. Concurrent positive results with near-verbatim, provenance-preserving units fit the same account: retrieval accuracy tracks how far the representation departs from the source. For the extraction designs we test, structured memory should augment verbatim text rather than replace it: a chunks $\cup$ artifacts union store matches chunks on both benchmarks while artifacts alone forfeit the gap. Code and data: https://github.com/tao-hpu/cog-canvas

14.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-12

VISTA: Video Interaction Spatio-Temporal Analysis Benchmark

Existing benchmarks for Vision-Language Models (VLMs) primarily evaluate spatio-temporal understanding on simple single-action videos, closed attribute sets and restricted entity types, failing to capture the freeform, multi-action interactions between diverse entities which characterize real-world video understanding. Furthermore, the lack of a systematic framework for analyzing model failures across complementary spatio-temporal axes hinders comprehensive evaluation. To address these gaps, we introduce VISTA, a Video Interaction Spatio-Temporal Analysis benchmark designed for open-set, multi-entity and multi-action spatio-temporal understanding in VLMs. VISTA decomposes videos into interpretable entities, their associated actions, and relational dynamics, enabling multi-axis diagnostics and unified assessment of relational, spatial, and temporal understanding. Our benchmark integrates multiple datasets into a single interaction-aware taxonomy and comprises ~12K curated video-query pairs spanning diverse scenes and complexities. We systematically evaluate 11 state-of-the-art VLMs on VISTA, and break down aggregate performance across our taxonomy to reveal shortcomings and pronounced spatio-temporal biases obscured by traditional metrics. By providing detailed, taxonomy-driven diagnostics on a challenging dataset, VISTA offers a nuanced framework to guide advances in model design, pretraining strategies, and evaluation protocols. Overall, VISTA is the first, large-scale, interaction-aware diagnostic benchmark for spatio-temporal understanding in VLMs.

15.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

Echo2ECG: Enhancing ECG Representations with Cardiac Morphology from Multi-View Echos

arXiv:2603.08505v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Electrocardiography (ECG) is a low-cost, widely used modality for diagnosing electrical abnormalities like atrial fibrillation by capturing the heart's electrical activity. However, it cannot directly measure cardiac morphological phenotypes, such as left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), which typically require echocardiography (Echo). Predicting these phenotypes from ECG would enable early, accessible health screening. Existing self-supervised methods suffer from a representational mismatch by aligning ECGs to single-view Echos, which only capture local, spatially restricted anatomical snapshots. To address this, we propose Echo2ECG, a multimodal self-supervised learning framework that enriches ECG representations with the heart's morphological structure captured in multi-view Echos. We evaluate Echo2ECG as an ECG feature extractor on two clinically relevant tasks that fundamentally require morphological information: (1) classification of structural cardiac phenotypes across three datasets, and (2) retrieval of Echo studies with similar morphological characteristics using ECG queries. Our extracted ECG representations consistently outperform those of state-of-the-art unimodal and multimodal baselines across both tasks, despite being 18x smaller than the largest baseline. These results demonstrate that Echo2ECG is a robust, powerful ECG feature extractor. Our code is accessible at https://github.com/michelleespranita/Echo2ECG.

16.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

VeriGraph: Towards Verifiable Data-Analytic Agents

LLM-based agents have demonstrated strong capabilities in data-intensive analytical tasks, yet their outputs are rarely verifiable: a reliance on linear text trajectories makes their reasoning difficult to audit. In particular, deterministic computations over raw data and semantic deductions over natural-language claims are often entangled in an unstructured stream, leaving numerical conclusions hard to reproduce and qualitative judgments hard to inspect. To address this, we propose VeriGraph, a traceable neuro-symbolic reasoning framework that enables agents to construct an explicit heterogeneous evidence directed acyclic graph (DAG) during execution. VeriGraph introduces three evidence-expansion primitives, namely computational, grounding, and derivational expansion, to connect raw data, interpreter variables, computed results, and natural-language claims in a unified graph. Under this formulation, structural traceability is reduced to graph reachability from raw data sources to terminal claims, while semantic support is measured by claim-level evidence evaluation. To improve graph construction, we further design a graph-based policy optimization strategy with a composite reward that jointly supervises answer correctness, computational integrity, and derivational coherence. Experiments on four benchmarks show that VeriGraph-8B achieves the highest overall score among all baselines. More importantly, VeriGraph produces auditable evidence graphs with substantially stronger claim grounding, achieving a 87.61\% Grounding Rate under our claim-level evidence support evaluation. These results suggest that explicit evidence-graph construction is a promising path toward verifiable data-analytic agents. Our code is available at https://github.com/ignorejjj/VeriGraph.

17.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-17

MIVE: A Minimalist Integer Vector Engine for Softmax LayerNorm and RMSNorm Acceleration

arXiv:2606.17781v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: The rapid growth of Large Language Models (LLMs) has intensified the need for specialized hardware accelerators that can satisfy stringent inference latency and power constraints. Although matrix multiplications dominate the overall computational workload, non-linear vector normalization operations, such as LayerNorm, RMSNorm and Softmax can become critical hardware bottlenecks. Existing accelerators typically implement these functions using dedicated hardware blocks, leading to duplicated resources and inefficient silicon utilization. To address this limitation, we propose a Minimalist Integer Vector Engine (MIVE), a programmable architecture capable of executing all three operations within a unified datapath. By exploiting common computational patterns across LayerNorm, RMSNorm and Softmax the proposed vector engine maximizes hardware sharing while reducing implementation overhead. Physical ASIC implementation results show that MIVE provides comprehensive multi-function support while achieving higher area and hardware efficiency than most state-of-the-art standalone accelerators.

18.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-18

Low-Cost Neuromorphic Fall Detection Using Synthetic Event Data and Hybrid SNNs

This work presents the development of hybrid models that integrate spiking neural networks (SNNs) with components of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to learn from simulated event-based camera data (Dynamic Vision Sensor, DVS) generated from conventional smartphone videos. Aimed primarily at human fall detection, the approach leverages the energy efficiency and spatio-temporal processing capabilities of SNNs by converting video frames into event-based data. The proposed models are evaluated through simulations on multiple datasets, comparing their performance to that of traditional machine learning models. Results demonstrate significant gains in efficiency without sacrificing accuracy, underscoring the potential of combining SNNs and DVS technology for complex tasks in real-world environments.

20.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-24

A Differentially Private Weighted Empirical Risk Minimization Procedure and its Application to Outcome Weighted Learning

arXiv:2307.13127v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Data used to train predictive models via empirical risk minimization (ERM) often contain sensitive personal information. While differential privacy (DP) provides mathematically provable bounds to protect such data, previous work has focused almost exclusively on unweighted ERM. We consider weighted ERM (wERM) – an important generalization where individual contributions to the objective function vary. We propose the first DP algorithm for general wERM with formal privacy guarantees and derive both its empirical and population excess risk bounds. Crucially, this general wERM framework provides a pathway for deriving privacy-preserving learning methods for individualized treatment rules, including the popular outcome-weighted learning (OWL) approach. We evaluate DP-wERM applied to OWL in simulated and real data experiments. Our empirical results demonstrate that training OWL models via wERM provides strong DP guarantees while maintaining robust performance, proving the method is practical for sensitive, real-world data.

21.
bioRxiv (Bioinfo) 2026-06-22

When Less Is Not More: DICEPro Mitigates the Impact of Incomplete Reference Matrices on Cellular Frequency Deconvolution.

Cellular deconvolution aims to estimate the frequencies of different cell populations from gene expression measurements in a biological sample. Supervised approaches, such as CIBERSORTx and DISSECT, critically depend on the reference signature matrix, which encodes the gene expression profiles of cell-types based on prior knowledge. Despite numerous deconvolution methods, the impact of missing cell populations in the reference matrix remains understudied. Here, we evaluate the robustness of state-of-the-art deconvolution approaches using simulations based on real dataset examples combined with statistical modeling, validated against published data, and multiple real benchmark datasets. Results show that deconvolution performance remains stable when the reference matrix includes most cell-types, but declines sharply as the matrix becomes incomplete, especially for abundant cell populations. To address the limitations of incomplete reference matrices, we introduce DICEPro, an optimization-based framework designed to enhance existing deconvolution methods. By systematically adjusting the reference signatures, DICEPro better accounts for missing or underrepresented cell populations, leading to improved precision and robustness. We show that DICEPro consistently boosts deconvolution performance across both simulated datasets, derived from real data examples, and multiple real biological datasets, offering a practical solution when standard methods are hindered by incomplete references.

22.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-12

Robust State-Conditional Feature-Weighted Jump Models for Temporal Clustering

arXiv:2606.13146v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We propose a robust feature-weighted jump model for time-dependent clustering. A penalty is used to encourage smoothness of transitions over time, while robustness is achieved through the use of a Tukey's biweight loss function. An additional parameter controls the variability of feature weights across states, allowing the model to assign state-specific relevance to each feature. We illustrate in simulation how the method accurately recovers the true cluster sequence and reliably identifies relevant features, outperforming competing approaches, particularly in the presence of outliers. We conclude with two empirical applications, one on the number of conflict-related homicides in Kosovo in the period 1998-2000, and another on macroeconomic performance of twelve European countries in the period 1949-2024.

23.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

Is Code Better Than Language for Algorithmic Reasoning

arXiv:2606.15589v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: For tool-augmented language models, comparing natural-language reasoning with code-execution pipelines is difficult because the comparison changes both the intermediate representation and the execution mechanism. We separate these factors with an intermediate intervention: the model expresses its reasoning as executable code, and the language model simulates that code in context to produce an answer. On a 40-task verifiable algorithmic benchmark, deterministic code execution outperforms natural-language reasoning by +31.6pp. We observe that the intermediate intervention is not meaningfully different from natural-language reasoning (+0.15pp). These results suggest that, in our evaluated setting, changing the intermediate representation alone does not explain the tool-use advantage, providing evidence for the performance gains requiring reliable external execution. We formalize this intuition with a simple statistical decision-theoretic model that characterizes when execution dominates end-to-end risk in our disentangled trace-generation/execution regime. We validate our theory using a reconstruction intervention that leverages a proxy language model to infer natural-language reasoning traces from code representations, recovering performance comparable to the original natural-language reasoning pipeline. All experiments are at https://github.com/TerryTong-Git/ToolProj.

24.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

RAID: Semantic Graph Diffusion for True Cold-Start and Cross-Lingual Forecasting

arXiv:2606.16925v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Time-series foundation models show strong transfer performance when given a non-empty history window. However, true cold-start scenarios, where a new item has no prior observations, violate this assumption. We propose RAID (Retrieval-Augmented Iterative Diffusion) a framework, which replaces history-based correlation learning with metadata-driven semantic retrieval and graph-conditioned diffusion. RAID maps textual metadata into a shared semantic space using a frozen multilingual embedding model and constructs an inductive retrieval graph that extends naturally to unseen items. It first forms a base forecast by aggregating information from semantically related neighbors, then refines this forecast with a gated diffusion module to model residual uncertainty. Under a strict true cold-start protocol, RAID outperforms strong foundation models and competitive baselines on both forecasting accuracy and prediction interval coverage, while reducing inference latency by an order of magnitude through non-autoregressive decoding. The shared semantic space also enables zero-shot cross-lingual transfer, allowing a model trained on English descriptions to generalize to items described in other languages without direct supervision.

25.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-24

UniRED: Unified RGB-D Video Frame Interpolation with Event Guidance

High frame-rate RGB-D videos are crucial for a variety of downstream tasks, including motion analysis, dynamic scene understanding, and 3D reconstruction. However, due to hardware and sensing constraints, practical RGB-D cameras are typically limited to low frame rates, making it difficult to capture rapid scene dynamics. Existing video interpolation methods have achieved strong performance on RGB data, but they are not readily applicable to RGB-D scenarios, where they often yield blurry boundaries, visible artifacts, and degraded geometric consistency. Furthermore, motion estimation from only two boundary frames is inherently under-constrained in complex dynamic scenes. Event cameras, by contrast, provide asynchronous measurements with ultra-high temporal resolution, offering dense motion cues. In this paper, we propose a unified multimodal framework for RGB-D video interpolation that jointly exploits RGB appearance, depth geometry, and event-based temporal cues. Specifically, it first extracts and fuses RGB, depth and event cues, then estimates bidirectional flow with motion basis refinement for RGB and Z-axial refinement for depth, and finally synthesizes the target RGB-D frame via bidirectional warping and soft blending. In addition, we construct a new RGB-D-Event dataset to alleviate the scarcity of tri-modal training data. Extensive experiments on a public benchmark and the proposed dataset demonstrate that our method achieves superior photometric fidelity for RGB interpolation and stronger geometric accuracy for depth interpolation than existing approaches.