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01.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-17

Guidelines for the Annotation and Visualization of Legal Argumentation Structures in Chinese Judicial Decisions

This Guideline presents a systematic and operationalizable annotation framework for representing legal argumentation structures in judicial decisions. Grounded in theories of legal reasoning and argumentation, the framework aims to reveal the logical organization of judicial reasoning and provide a reliable foundation for computational analysis. At the element level, the Guideline distinguishes between the non-propositional layer and the propositional layer. The non-propositional layer consists of two elements: Issue and Non-argumentative Component. At the propositional level, the Guideline defines four proposition types: General Normative Judgment, Particular Normative Judgment, General Factual Judgment, and Particular Factual Judgment. At the relational level, five relation types are defined to represent argumentative structures: Support, Attack, Joint, Match, and Identity. These relations capture positive and negative argumentative connections, conjunctive reasoning structures, correspondences between legal norms and case facts, and identity or semantic equivalence between propositions. The Guideline further specifies formal representation rules and visualization conventions for both basic and nested structures, enabling consistent visualization of complex argumentation patterns. In addition, it establishes a standardized annotation workflow and consistency control mechanisms to ensure the reproducibility and reliability of annotated data. By providing a clear conceptual model, formal representation rules, and practical annotation procedures, this Guideline supports large-scale analysis of judicial reasoning and future research in legal argument mining, computational modeling of legal reasoning, and AI-assisted legal analysis.

02.
bioRxiv (Bioinfo) 2026-06-23

Systematic benchmarking of zero-shot utility and robustness in single-cell transcriptomic foundation models

Single-cell foundation models (scFMs) have been proposed as reusable representations for transcriptomic analysis, yet their practical utility and robustness when applied without task-specific fine-tuning remain incompletely characterized. Here, we systematically evaluated single-cell transcriptomic representations in zero-shot settings across 20 methods, 6 downstream tasks and 1,607 datasets comprising nearly 21.8 million cells. We characterized model behavior along three complementary dimensions: baseline utility, structural robustness, and dataset-level drivers of performance variability. Our large-scale analysis reveals a decoupling between utility and robustness: methods ranking highly on standard benchmarks often show marked instability under shifts in dataset structure. Furthermore, no single model performs uniformly well across tasks. In several tasks, classical statistical representations based on highly variable genes remain competitive under zero-shot conditions. Together, these results define the practical boundaries of zero-shot use in scFMs and provide a large-scale benchmark and decision framework for representation selection in single-cell genomics.

03.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

PSCT-Net: Geometry-Aware Pediatric Skull CT Reconstruction via Differentiable Back-Projection and Attention-Guided Refinement

arXiv:2606.19867v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Computed Tomography (CT) is essential for diagnosing pediatric craniofacial abnormalities, yet poses radiation risks to developing anatomies. Reconstructing 3D CT from sparse bi-planar X-rays offers a low-dose alternative but is severely ill-posed. Existing methods employ geometry-agnostic feature lifting, naively projecting 2D features into 3D without explicit spatial modeling, causing depth ambiguity and degraded osseous boundaries. We present PSCT-Net, a geometry-aware framework with differentiable back-projection. Differentiable back-projection establishes a spatially faithful volumetric prior, alleviating depth ambiguity. An Attention-Guided Projection (AGP-3D) module then learns non-linear voxel-wise correspondences between 2D regions and 3D locations. A Bidirectional Mamba (BiM-3D) module captures long-range volumetric dependencies with linear complexity. We further curate a private institutional pediatric skull CT cohort, PedSkull-CT, comprising normal and pathological cases for internal evaluation, addressing the gap in adult-centric, trunk-focused datasets.

04.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

An Empirical Analysis of Optimization Dynamics and Sparsity Boundaries in Large-Scale Pedestrian Attribute Recognition

Pedestrian Attribute Recognition (PAR) is critical for video surveillance, enabling forensic search and re-identification systems. Extreme class imbalance remains a fundamental obstacle when merging PETA and PA-100K into a 109,000-image composite corpus, where minority attributes have positive sample fractions below 1%. This causes standard BCE optimization to suppress rare traits, a phenomenon we term the majority negative class cheating trap. We present a systematic ablation of Multi-Label Focal Loss hyperparameters (alpha and gamma) on a ResNet-18 backbone. A calibrated configuration (alpha=0.50, gamma=2.0) achieves a Macro F1-score of 62.32%, matching BCE baseline while preserving superior hard-example mining and convergence dynamics. Our approach uses pure loss-function engineering with zero computational overhead for edge deployment. We identify the Sparsity Wall, a hard boundary where positive sample fractions below 0.1% make global loss reweighting ineffective, requiring instance-level intervention.

05.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-15

Population-scale genomics reveals divergent pathogenicity of variant classes across paralogous collagen IV genes

Monoallelic pathogenic or likely pathogenic variants in COL4A3 and COL4A4 occur in approximately 1 in 106 individuals, yet whether these paralogous genes confer equivalent pathogenicity for the same variant classes has not been tested at population scale. Using whole-genome sequencing data from the UK Biobank (UKB; n = 500,000), with replication in the All of Us Research Program (n = 414,000), we performed per-variant association testing, gene-based collapsing analyses and phenome-wide association studies (PheWAS) across haematuria, proteinuria and chronic kidney disease. We identified 64 COL4A3 and 92 COL4A4 rare variants significantly associated with haematuria or proteinuria, generating a quantitative allelic series for clinical variant interpretation. Glycine substitutions within collagenous domains conferred similar risks in both genes. In contrast, truncating and non-collagenous domain (NC1) missense variants were strongly associated with haematuria and proteinuria in COL4A4 carriers but showed substantially attenuated or absent associations in COL4A3 carriers despite comparable carrier frequencies and predicted pathogenicity scores. These findings were independently replicated in All of Us. Genome-wide association analysis identified the COL4A3/COL4A4 locus as the dominant genetic determinant of haematuria, with the signal attributable to the aggregate effects of rare coding variants and no evidence of independent common variant or trans-acting modifier effects. These findings demonstrate substantial gene-specific differences in tolerance to truncating and NC1 variants between COL4A3 and COL4A4, challenging assumptions of equivalent pathogenicity across paralogous collagen IV genes. Gene identity and not variant class alone, should inform risk stratification, variant interpretation and genetic counselling in individuals carrying collagen IV risk genotypes.

06.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-18

Confidence is Not Reliability: Rethinking MC Dropout in Brain Tumour Segmentation

Glioma segmentation in multiparametric MRI is a critical component of treatment planning. A segmentation model that fails silently on treatment-critical sub-regions represents a patient safety risk that overlap-based metrics such as Dice scores cannot expose. We ask whether voxel-level uncertainty estimation via Monte Carlo (MC) Dropout can reliably identify segmentation errors in clinically critical sub-regions, and whether calibration failure modes are detectable from standard reporting metrics alone. In an empirical two-model case study on 126 BraTS21 patients, we evaluate a high-performance pretrained SegResNet and a locally trained UNet with residual units (UNet-Res). MC dropout preserved segmentation accuracy ($|\Delta Dice|$ $

07.
Nature (Science) 2026-06-09

Scientists have a bad case of AI FOMO, <i>Nature</i> poll reveals

Authors:

Almost half of the scientists who responded said that they feel broadly negative towards artificial intelligence, but they think that some tools are better than others. Almost half of the scientists who responded said that they feel broadly negative towards artificial intelligence, but they think that some tools are better than others.

08.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

Runtime Analysis of Cartesian Genetic Programming in Evolving Boolean Functions

arXiv:2606.15923v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Cartesian Genetic Programming (CGP) is among the practical and popular forms of Genetic Programming as it uses a graph-based representation of programs. This paper presents a first runtime analysis of CGP in evolving Boolean functions using complete training sets. We prove an asymptotic bound $O(n D^5)$ for the expected number of fitness evaluations of CGP to construct a conjunction of $n$ inputs using at most $D \geq n-1$ binary gates, a minimal function set, and even with a strict survival selection. When the non-strict selection is used, the bound is improved to $O(n D^4)$. Our analysis reveals interesting characteristics of CGP induced search, which have been only observed empirically. In particular, enabling the acceptance of equally good solutions, including those with connected gates non-contributing to fitness, can lead to a speedup, and consequently a better asymptotic time bound. In contrast to conjunctions, we also prove a negative result which shows that CGP requires exponential time to evolve an exclusive disjunction. Experiments evolving conjunctions complement our theoretical findings. The use of incomplete training sets is found to further reduce the average number of fitness evaluations while maintaining a good level of generalisation.

09.
bioRxiv (Bioinfo) 2026-06-10

Folding the unfoldable 2: using AlphaFold and ESMFold to explore spurious proteins

Motivation: Spurious protein sequences, resulting from gene prediction errors, theoretically should not yield folded structures. AlphaFold2 was previously shown to predict short spurious sequences with high pLDDT scores and was therefore unlikely to distinguish between real proteins and spurious proteins which are usually short. We evaluate whether newer structure prediction methods (ESMFold and AlphaFold3) similarly predict short sequences with high pLDDT or if they better discriminate between spurious and real proteins. Results: All three structure prediction methods (ESMFold, AlphaFold2, and AlphaFold3) predict short spurious sequences from AntiFam with unexpectedly high pLDDT scores, however the discrimination between spurious and real proteins improves beyond 100 amino acids. By analysing sequences with disparate pTM and pLDDT scores, we identified two likely spurious shadow ORFs in Swiss-Prot and one potentially non-spurious AntiFam entry. Using the structure prediction scores, we developed a Gaussian Process Model and evaluated its performance on AlphaFold DB, identifying potential spurious proteins at scale. While limited on its own, this model can increase confidence in spurious protein identification when combined with other methods.

10.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-12

Fibonacci Steady-States and Persistent Oscillations in an Ordered Multimode Dicke Model

arXiv:2606.13072v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Ultracold atoms in multimode optical cavities provide a rich testbed for many-body phenomena enabled by light-mediated interactions. Recent experiments include realizations of spin glasses and associative memories, as described by multimode Dicke models with disordered couplings. However, the properties of multimode Dicke models with ordered coupling geometries remain largely unexplored. In this work, we investigate the stable steady-states of the multimode Dicke model with an ordered nearest-neighbor coupling geometry, where $n_c$ atomic clusters are coupled via $n_c-1$ cavity modes. We show that the number of mean-field stable steady-states in the superradiant phase exhibits Fibonacci scaling with the number of atomic clusters, and that a subset of these steady-states exhibit persistent oscillations. Using both the truncated Wigner approximation and the numerically-exact hierarchy of pure states, we further demonstrate that these features of the stable steady-state solutions persist for finite cluster sizes. Ordered multimode Dicke models, such as the nearest-neighbor coupling geometry considered here, are accessible with current experimental technologies and point toward a broader class of strongly interacting dissipative systems with similarly rich behavior.

11.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-15

SuperThoughts: Reasoning Tokens in Superposition

Long Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning improves LLM problem-solving but is computationally expensive due to sequential token generation. While recent works explore reasoning in continuous latent spaces to bypass discrete token generation, they often struggle with training stability and fail to scale to complex, long-horizon tasks due to lack of supervision signal. We propose SuperThoughts, which compresses pairs of consecutive CoT tokens into single latent representations and decodes two tokens per step via a lightweight Multi-Token Prediction (MTP) module. This preserves discrete token supervision at training time while doubling throughput at inference time. We finetune Qwen2.5-Math-1.5B-Instruct, Qwen2.5-Math-7B-Instruct, Qwen2.5-Math-14B-Instruct, and evaluate on MATH500, AMC, OlympiadBench, and GPQA-Diamond. With a confidence-based adaptive mechanism that falls back to standard decoding when uncertain, SuperThoughts achieves $\sim$20–30\% CoT length reduction while maintaining accuracy with minimal degradation (1-2 points accuracy drop on most tasks).

12.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-11

Population-scale detection of methylation outliers from long-read genome sequencing

Background: Aberrant DNA methylation can mediate the functional effects of rare genetic variation and contribute to imprinting disorders, repeat expansion diseases, and other pathogenic regulatory mechanisms. Long-read sequencing technologies now enable genome-wide detection of CpG methylation alongside genetic variation from a single assay. However, methods for systematic identification and interpretation of methylation outliers from long-read sequencing data remain limited. Methods: We developed METAFORA, a computational workflow for detecting methylation outlier regions from PacBio and Oxford Nanopore long-read sequencing data. METAFORA constructs population-level methylation references, segments the genome into correlated CpG blocks, infers technical and biological sources of variation through hidden factor estimation, models uncertainty due to variable depth sequencing, and computes covariate-adjusted methylation outlier scores for individual samples. We applied METAFORA across large long-read sequencing cohorts and integrated methylation outliers with multi-omic data. METAFORA is implemented as a snakemake workflow available at https://github.com/tjense25/METAFORA. Results: METAFORA identified methylation outlier regions associated with rare structural variants, tandem repeat expansions, and imprinting abnormalities. We found outlier regions were enriched for molecular outliers across transcriptomic and chromatin accessibility datasets, supporting their functional relevance in gene regulation. In a representative case, METAFORA identified an imprinting defect affecting the GNAS locus associated with an STX16 deletion. Conclusions: METAFORA enables scalable detection and interpretation of methylation outliers from long-read sequencing data and provides a framework for integrating epigenetic outliers with genomic and multi-omic analyses. These approaches may improve interpretation of rare regulatory variation and support discovery of clinically relevant epigenetic abnormalities in genomic medicine.

13.
bioRxiv (Bioinfo) 2026-06-17

Beyond phylogeny: Genome-wide DNA sequence patterns suggest DNA physical properties associated with thermal adaptation in extremophile microbes

Authors:

Temperature is a fundamental constraint on biological systems, yet how it is reflected in genome sequence organization remains unclear. Here, we show that genome-wide distributions of short DNA sequences contain a robust signal of thermal adaptation that is largely independent of phylogeny. Using Structural Topic Modelling (STM), a machine-learning approach for identifying groups of co-occurring sequence motifs, we analyze canonical 6-mer and 9-mer frequency profiles of bacterial and archaeal genome proxies (randomly sampled genomic regions) and identify motif families systematically associated with thermophiles and psychrophiles. In bacterial thermophiles, the identified motif families are dominated by highly specific, overrepresented and co-occurring C- and G-stacked hexamers, and a distinct family of CG-periodic hexamers recurring across multiple temperature comparisons. In contrast, bacterial psychrophile-associated motifs are dominated by low-complexity A-, T-, and AT-run hexamers. Thermophilic archaea generally exhibit a distinct CTAG-centred hexamer family, suggesting that different domains may adapt to similar environmental constraints through different sequence-level solutions. However, this domain-level contrast is not absolute: in a targeted analysis of two thermophilic bacterium–archaeon pairs, we find unusually similar frequencies of all the STM-identified thermophile-associated hexamer families, suggesting that shared high-temperature environments can, in specific cases, partially override phylogenetic divergence. Notably, the identified motif families constitute only a small and highly selective subset of the vast space of possible G+C-rich or A+T-rich sequences. This indicates that thermal adaptation is associated with specific sequence architectures rather than broad shifts in nucleotide composition. Accordingly, the observed signal cannot be explained by overall base composition alone, but instead arises from structured combinations and positional arrangements of nucleotides within short sequence contexts. Related motif families are recovered at both k=6 and k=9, indicating that the signal reflects systematic shifts in genome-wide sequence organization rather than isolated sequence motifs. These patterns are consistent with known sequence-dependent DNA physical properties documented in biochemical and biophysical studies, including differences in base-stacking interactions and conformational flexibility. Together, our results suggest that genome-wide sequence organization reflects sequence-dependent DNA physical properties associated with thermal adaptation, revealing a previously underappreciated physical layer of genomic information beyond phylogenetic history.

14.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

Class-Incremental Motion Forecasting

arXiv:2603.09420v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Motion forecasting enables autonomous vehicles to anticipate scene evolution by predicting the future trajectories of dynamic agents. However, existing approaches typically assume a closed-world setting with a fixed object taxonomy and access to high-quality perception, limiting their applicability in the real world where perception is imperfect, and new object classes may emerge over time. In this work, we introduce class-incremental motion forecasting, a novel setting in which new object classes are sequentially introduced over time and future object trajectories are predicted directly from camera images. We propose the first end-to-end framework for this setting, which adapts to newly introduced classes while mitigating catastrophic forgetting of previously learned ones. Our method generates motion forecasting pseudo-labels for known classes and matches them with 2D instance masks from an open-vocabulary segmentation model. This 3D-to-2D keypoint voting mechanism filters inconsistent and overconfident predictions, while a query feature variance-based replay strategy samples informative past sequences to preserve prior knowledge. Extensive evaluations on nuScenes and Argoverse 2 show that our approach successfully preserves performance on known classes while effectively adapting to novel ones. We further demonstrate zero-shot transfer to real-world driving and show that the framework extends naturally to open- and closed-loop end-to-end class-incremental planning on nuScenes and NeuroNCAP. Code and models will be made publicly available at https://omen.cs.uni-freiburg.de.

15.
bioRxiv (Bioinfo) 2026-06-14

Prediction of parsimonious and temporally sensitive sets of cell fate engineering transcription factors with IMCell

Transcription factor (TF) cocktails used in cell identity reprogramming protocols have largely been developed from experimental approaches. A handful of computational approaches have been reported, though have not been widely adopted by the scientific community. To standardize their use and assess their performance, we built CompForce, a platform that integrates these tools. Using CompForce, we found that existing computational methods offer modest improvements over differential expression on both synthetic and literature-curated data, and that their lackluster and inconsistent performance could be attributed to a reliance on local centrality metrics. To improve upon these methods, we developed IMCell, a prediction method that is inspired by the influence maximization problem. Unlike existing tools, IMCell returns optimized TF sets rather than ranked TF lists. We demonstrate that IMCell vastly out-performs existing tools, and further extend it to dynamic, stepwise contexts. The tools presented here are available in the R packages CompForce and IMCell.

16.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-23

Socioeconomic Determinants of Guideline-Concordant Therapy for Early-Stage Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer: A Population-Based Analysis from Appalachian and Non-Appalachian Ohio, 2004-2015

Purpose: To examine the relative contributions of insurance, county-level poverty, and other socioeconomic factors, as compared with Appalachian geography, to receipt of guideline-concordant therapy for early-stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) in Appalachian and non-Appalachian Ohio. Methods: Retrospective population-based cohort study using the Ohio Cancer Incidence Surveillance System. We identified adults diagnosed with early-stage NSCLC between 2004 and 2015 (N=26,756). The primary outcome was receipt of guideline-concordant local therapy (surgery or definitive radiation). Rural-urban classification used USDA Rural-Urban Continuum Codes. Multivariable logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards models assessed predictors of treatment and survival, with E-values, race-stratified models, and propensity score weighting as sensitivity analyses. Findings: Median age was 71 years; 50.3% were male, 83.8% non-Hispanic White, and 20.4% Appalachian. Overall, 83.6% received guideline-concordant local therapy (59.6% surgery, 24.0% radiation). In adjusted analysis, Medicaid (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 0.53, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.44-0.63; adjusted risk ratio [RR] 0.94, 0.91-0.96), county-level poverty >20% (OR 0.77, 95% CI 0.68-0.87; RR 0.96, 0.95-0.98), and unmarried status were independently associated with lower therapy receipt, whereas Appalachian residence was associated with modestly higher receipt (OR 1.17, 95% CI 1.06-1.29; RR 1.02, 1.01-1.04). Therapy rates converged across regions over the study period (year x Appalachian interaction p20% (HR 1.13, 95% CI 1.07-1.20). Conclusions: Socioeconomic factors, particularly Medicaid insurance and county-level poverty, were the patient characteristics most strongly associated with lower receipt of guideline-concordant therapy, whereas Appalachian residence was not a barrier. Findings support targeted interventions addressing insurance-related and poverty-related barriers to lung cancer care in high-poverty communities regardless of geographic designation.

17.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-19

Sparse Configuration Interaction for the Electronic Schrödinger Equation Revisited: Complete Basis Set Limit Complexity and Quantum-Encoding Impact

arXiv:2606.20385v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In this article we revisit regularity results for eigenfunctions in the discrete spectrum of the electronic Schrödinger equation and study their consequences for approximation complexity. In particular, for the convergence to the complete basis set limit, it can be shown that the curse of dimensionality in the leading algebraic exponent can be mitigated. That is, for general sparse grid constructions, the main term of the convergence rate with respect to the number of degrees of freedom is independent of the number of electrons. These insights indicate potential benefits for classical numerical solvers of the electronic Schrödinger equation and also for quantum-computing approaches through new qubit-efficient wavefunction encodings.

18.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-16

A Poisson Process Life Expectancy framework for optimising patient lifetime during chemotherapy

Cancer therapy balances between two competing objectives - treatment efficacy against the tumour and the risk of treatment related severe adverse events, including patient death. Most existing optimal control theory (OCT) formulations rely on optimising heuristic cost functionals that lack direct clinical interpretability. In clinical practice treatment efficacy and patient tolerability are primarily assessed through survival metrics and adverse event rates. Here we introduce the Continuous Lifetime Payoff (CLP), a novel OCT objective functional that directly links treatment decisions to patient survival. It explicitly incorporates tumour dynamics, tumour eradication, and patient mortality from tumour progression, drug-related toxicity and age. We fit age-related mortality from life tables and infer parameters from simulated survival data. The CLP provides a clinically grounded framework for optimising chemotherapy regimens.

19.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-15

When Should Agent Trust Be Conditional? Characterizing and Attacking Skill-Conditional Reputation in Agent Swarms

arXiv:2606.14200v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Open platforms increasingly route tasks among heterogeneous LLM agents–differing in base model, scaffold, and tool stack–whose competence varies sharply by skill: an agent excellent at one skill may be useless at another. The standard reputation approach summarizes each agent by a single global trust score, but that scalar is the wrong object here, because routing every task to the globally most-trusted agent leaves the value of specialization unclaimed. We study skill-conditional trust R(i | k)–the trust to place in agent i for a task requiring skill k, rather than one score per agent–and pose three falsifiable questions: when is conditioning worth it, how much cross-skill evidence should be borrowed, and whether that borrowing is safe. A controlled phase-diagram analysis answers the first two: conditional trust wins only in a specific regime–high agent heterogeneity, sparse per-skill evidence, and correlated skills–and the coupling strength beta that buys this data efficiency is dual-use, because the same cross-skill borrowing is also a laundering channel. On a public benchmark of 14 genuinely heterogeneous AppWorld agents, real pools land inside the beneficial regime–a small but genuine gain, with the per-skill best agent genuinely changing across skills. We then show that an attacker with cheap evidence in one skill and none in a target skill hijacks the conditional router, driving routing regret from 0 to 0.94 on a pool our zero-cost Conditional Information Value Test (CIVT) rates GREEN–while the ungated trust verdict it contaminates reads -0.06 instead of the honest +0.19. A zero-evidence gate bounds the attack but does not eliminate it; we characterize the residual cost under an explicit budget. We do not claim Sybil-resistance–we quantify the trade-off.

20.
bioRxiv (Bioinfo) 2026-06-10

Is level-1 blob reconstruction under the network multispecies coalescent easy?

Authors:

Hybridization is an important evolutionary process, commonly modeled by the network multispecies coalescent. Reconstructing evolutionary histories under this model is notoriously costly, even for level-1 networks where hybridization events are isolated from each other. The widely used methods that combine speed with statistical guarantees rely on quartet concordance factors computed for all subsets of four species, resulting in an o(n^4k) bottleneck that severely limits scalability to large numbers of species (n) and genes (k). Among quartet-based methods, NANUQ+ is notable because it decomposes the problem into two steps: first reconstructing a tree of blobs, which compresses each non-treelike part of the network, called a blob, into a single vertex, and second reconstructing the internal structure of each level-1 blob, specifically its circular order and hybrid vertex. Here, we investigate whether level-1 blob reconstruction is difficult once the tree of blobs is known. We present a fast and statistically consistent algorithm, called NetCS, based on two simple primitives: majority voting and merge sort, circumventing the bottleneck of computing all quartet concordance factors. In simulations, NetCS achieved comparable accuracy to NANUQ+ and was dramatically faster, enabling analyses of 200 taxa and 1000 genes in only a few minutes. Both methods attained near-perfect accuracy when given the true tree of blobs; however, their performance degraded in end-to-end pipelines due to errors in tree of blobs reconstruction. Strikingly, even methods that reconstruct level-1 networks directly struggled to accurately predict hybrid ancestry. Our results suggest that reconstructing level-1 blobs is unexpectedly easy once the tree of blobs is known, and that a major challenge for phylogenetic network inference lies in accurate tree of blobs reconstruction.

21.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

From Affect Prediction to Affect Forecasting: Evidence for Distinct Information Sources in Longitudinal Text

Modeling dimensional affect in longitudinal text requires distinguishing current affect estimation from future affective change forecasting. Existing approaches often treat each text as an independent observation and apply similar assumptions to both tasks, without testing whether they rely on different information sources. This paper investigates that distinction using longitudinal self-reported ecological essays and feeling-word entries. We propose the Trait–State Affective Prediction (TSAP) framework and its temporal extension E-TSAP for per-text valence and arousal prediction, evaluated on a held-out prediction test set of 1,737 entries from 91 users. We further propose the Affective Change Forecaster Hybrid (ACF-Hybrid) for next-step affective change forecasting, evaluated on a held-out forecasting test set of 46 users. For prediction, E-TSAP achieves composite Pearson correlations of 0.670 for valence and 0.449 for arousal. For forecasting, textual representations perform worse than compact numeric trajectory baselines: the text-inclusive model achieves only r=0.316 for valence and r=0.284 for arousal, whereas a simple prior-state baseline reaches r=0.615 and r=0.670, respectively. ACF-Hybrid, using dimension-specific numeric trajectory features, achieves r=0.659 for valence and $r=0.658$ for arousal. These results show that textual semantics support current affect prediction, whereas future affective change is better captured through prior numeric trajectory dynamics.

22.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-18

Benchmarking Physics-Informed Time-Series Models for Operational Global Station Weather Forecasting

The development of Time-Series Forecasting (TSF) models is often constrained by the lack of comprehensive datasets, especially in Global Station Weather Forecasting (GSWF), where existing datasets are small, temporally short, and spatially sparse. To address this, we introduce WEATHER-5K, a large-scale observational weather dataset that better reflects real-world conditions, supporting improved model training and evaluation. While recent TSF methods perform well on benchmarks, they lag behind operational Numerical Weather Prediction systems in capturing complex weather dynamics and extreme events. We propose PhysicsFormer, a physics-informed forecasting model combining a dynamic core with a Transformer residual to predict future weather states. Physical consistency is enforced via pressure-wind alignment and energy-aware smoothness losses, ensuring plausible dynamics while capturing complex temporal patterns. We benchmark PhysicsFormer and other TSF models against operational systems across several weather variables, extreme event prediction, and model complexity, providing a comprehensive assessment of the gap between academic TSF models and operational forecasting. The dataset and benchmark implementation are available at: https://github.com/taohan10200/WEATHER-5K.

23.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-15

The Coin Flip Judge? Reliability and Bias in LLM-as-a-Judge Evaluation

Authors:

LLM-as-a-Judge is now widely used to rank model outputs, train reward models, and populate public leaderboards, but its run-to-run reliability remains under-characterized. We study repeated identical evaluations on 29 tasks spanning 10 categories using two OpenAI judge models (GPT-4o-mini and GPT-4.1-mini), with 50 pairwise trials and 50 pointwise trials per question, supplemented by temperature and prompt-sensitivity ablations. Across judges, pairwise preferences flip on average 13.6% of the time, with 28% of questions exceeding a 20% flip rate and one question reaching 56%. GPT-4o-mini also exhibits a significant first-position bias (72% A-majority, p = 0.024). At the same time, mean pointwise score gaps are small (0.19–0.36 on a 10-point scale) and not statistically significant in aggregate, producing a pairwise–pointwise gap: judges frequently choose a winner even when their own scalar scores provide little evidence of a meaningful quality difference. Beyond within-judge instability, cross-judge agreement is only 76% ($\kappa = 0.51$), semantically equivalent prompt templates change majority outcomes in 25% of tested cases, and deterministic decoding reduces but does not eliminate inconsistency. A reliability curve analysis shows that, in our dataset, 11 repeated trials are needed for a majority vote to recover the 50-trial reference verdict with 95% probability on average, rising to 15 for high-variance questions. These findings suggest that single-trial LLM judging is often too noisy for high-stakes evaluation, and that multi-trial aggregation, position randomization, and explicit uncertainty reporting should be standard practice. Because both judges are from a single provider, cross-provider replication remains an important next step.

24.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-16

Layerwise Terminal Discrepancy in Chen's Reverse-Heat Coupling on the Boolean Cube

arXiv:2606.04573v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Recently, Chen [Chen2026] proved that Talagrand's Boolean convolution conjecture holds up to the dimension-free factor \((\log\log\eta)^{3/2}\), namely for every fixed \(\tau>0\), \[ \mu\{P_\tau f>\eta\|f\|_1\} \le C_\tau \frac{(\log\log\eta)^{3/2}}{\eta\sqrt{\log\eta}}, \qquad \eta>e^3. \] We revisit the terminal testing-discrepancy step in Chen's perturbed reverse-heat coupling. Chen estimates this discrepancy globally in terms of the remaining gap to the terminal level. We keep the same coupling and the same reverse-heat formulations, but localize the terminal discrepancy on each remaining-gap layer before summing the layers. This changes the fixed-time anti-concentration cost from order \((\log L)^{3/2}/\sqrt L\) to order \((\log L)/\sqrt L\), where \(L=\log\eta\). Consequently, we obtain a \((\log\log\eta)^{1/2}\) improvement as \[ \mu\{P_\tau f>\eta\|f\|_1\} \le C_\tau \frac{\log\log\eta}{\eta\sqrt{\log\eta}}, \qquad \eta>e^3. \]

25.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-17

Precision Is Not Faithfulness: Coverage-Aware Evaluation of Grounded Generation with a Complete Oracle

Reference-free faithfulness metrics verify each atomic claim a model makes against ground truth, and are increasingly used to evaluate grounded generation. We show they share a blind spot: they measure only precision – are the stated claims supported? – and therefore reward abstention, since a model can score near-perfect faithfulness by saying almost nothing. We make this measurable using Formula 1 telemetry, a domain where strategic ground truth is derived deterministically and, crucially, completely: for each decision we know the full set of facts that mattered. This completeness – absent in open-domain faithfulness benchmarks – lets us measure recall (coverage of the relevant facts) exactly, alongside precision. On a multilingual (EN/ES/PT) benchmark of 7,253 decision instances spanning 157 races, the most precise frontier model covers under half of the relevant facts and ranks last by F1, so requiring coverage reorders the systems; the same effect reappears in a second complete-oracle domain (NOAA weather forecasts). Fine-tuning small models (1B-7B) on the complete oracle closes the precision-recall gap entirely (F1 ~0.98), beating every zero-shot frontier system regardless of scale. We pair faithfulness with coverage into a single score, validate the metric (controlled perturbation; agreement across a model-free regex extractor and a cross-family LLM extractor, system-level Spearman 1.0), and give a verifier-guided generation method that improves precision and recall without references. We release the benchmark, structured annotations, metric, baselines, and an interactive demo.