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01.
Nature (Science) 2026-06-24

Genetic technologies to enhance crop nutritional value under climate change

At present, more than 700 million people live with caloric hunger, and more than two billion suffer from micronutrient deficiencies, known as ‘hidden hunger’. From an agricultural viewpoint, three major objectives need to be worked towards simultaneously to achieve zero hunger (the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 2): (1) enhanced yield; (2) higher vitamin and mineral density to sustain recommended daily intake (multi-biofortification); and (3) enhanced climate-change resilience. Although the Green Revolution increased global calorie production, it exacerbated hidden hunger by prioritizing high yield over nutritional quality. Stress from global climate change has been shown to reduce the densities of several micronutrients. CRISPR–Cas, which allows genome editing with extremely high precision, has emerged as a groundbreaking breeding technology that has already been adopted by many countries. Here we examine how CRISPR–Cas-based approaches could be used to achieve biofortification targets by enhancing micronutrient densities to the levels necessary to alleviate dietary vitamin and mineral deficiencies. Given the limited time frame available to achieve zero hunger, we argue that CRISPR–Cas technologies should be combined with metabolic engineering based on transformation and other technologies. We also consider untapped resources beyond metabolic pathways and current CRISPR–Cas methodologies to address one of the most important societal issues of the twenty-first century. This Review reflects on the joint power of genetic technologies, including untapped CRISPR–Cas techniques to combat hidden hunger and improve crop resilience, and argues in favour of their combined use to overcome these societal challenges.

02.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-18

On-Manifold Variational Learning with Heat-Kernel Priors

Learning unsupervised representations of medical imaging cohorts can reveal clinically meaningful prototypes without expert labels, which are often noisy and fail to capture true pathological heterogeneity. However, existing deep latent-variable models estimate Gaussian mixture priors via Euclidean averaging, producing prototypes that drift off the curved data manifold and degenerate as the number of sub-populations grows. We propose a manifold-anchored variational framework built on a geometry-aware Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm, whose M-step selects each sub-population prototype as the graph medoid with the highest diffusion centrality on a heat-kernel-weighted latent graph, ensuring that every prototype remains on-manifold. A Dirichlet energy regularizer enforces geometric smoothness of the latent space, and a per-sub-population uncertainty score enables label-free quality assessment. \rev{The manifold-anchored EM is a general-purpose geometric tool that extends standard EM and applies readily to other latent-variable models beyond this setting.} On cardiac scar and brain MRI benchmarks, our framework attains the highest accuracy among all compared methods, produces the sharpest prototypes reported to date, and remains stable at large sub-population counts where all baselines degenerate.

03.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-15

Context-aware Modality-Topology Co-Alignment for Multimodal Attributed Graphs

Multimodal Attributed Graphs (MAGs) model real-world entities by coupling graph topology with heterogeneous attributes such as text and images. They support graph-centric tasks requiring structural and class-discriminative representations, and modality-centric tasks requiring fine-grained cross-modal correspondence. However, existing MAG methods often rely on fixed graph contexts or uniformly fused representations, causing task-agnostic propagation and over-compressed fusion that hinder diverse task requirements and modality-specific evidence preservation. To address this, we propose CoMAG, a unified MAG backbone that learns task-adaptive reliable contexts and modality-preserving alignment within them. CoMAG first conducts Reliable Context Learning by estimating edge reliability from multimodal semantic consistency, complementing raw topology with semantic neighbors, and selecting context components through a task-aware gate. It then performs Modality-preserving Hop-token Alignment by maintaining modality-specific multi-hop trajectories, matching modality-hop tokens across modalities, and decoupling shared and private representations. Thus, CoMAG produces graph and modality representations from one forward pass while retaining modality-specific cues. We further analyze stable propagation, over-smoothing mitigation, and modality-collapse control. Experiments on nine OpenMAG datasets compare CoMAG with feature-only, graph-only, multimodal, and unified MAG baselines across graph-level prediction, modality matching, and graph-conditioned generation. Results show that CoMAG achieves the best reported performance, demonstrating that task-adaptive reliable contexts and modality-preserving alignment improve structural prediction, cross-modal matching, and graph-conditioned generation while retaining sparse edge-linear complexity.

04.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-24

REM universality and Poisson-Dirichlet Gibbs weights for linear random energy

arXiv:2606.07757v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We study the Hamiltonian $H_n(h,\sigma)=\sum_{i=1}^n h_i(\sigma_i-m), $ where $(h_i)$ are i.i.d.\ real random variables and $(\sigma_i)$ are i.i.d.\ Ising spins. We consider the energy levels obtained after an independent thinning that retains an exponential number of configurations ($e^{O(n)}$). We prove that, after an $(h_i)$-dependent centering, the resulting point process converges in distribution to a Poisson point process with exponential intensity. Thus, the energy levels asymptotically has the one of the Random Energy Model (REM). Our results extend previous ones, where REM universality for this model was established only either for energy fluctuations of order $e^{-O(n)}$ or for $e^{o(\sqrt n)}$ randomly selected configurations. We also identify the limiting Gibbs weights, which converge to a Poisson–Dirichlet law, and the quenched free energy, which exhibits a freezing transition at $\beta=\tilde\lambda$. The proofs are presented here in compressed form; full details are given in the companion preprint.

05.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-25

LastAct: Trajectory-Guided Latest-Activity Localization for Real-Time Smart-Home Activity Recognition

Human Activity Recognition (HAR) from ambient sensors enables smart-home applications such as health monitoring and assisted living. In realistic deployments, however, sensor events arrive as a continuous stream and activity boundaries are unknown. Sliding-window inference therefore produces many windows that straddle transitions and contain mixed activities, creating boundary contamination that violates the pre-segmented instance assumption used by most benchmarks and models. Moreover, many pipelines under-use spatial context by treating sensor IDs as independent tokens. We present LastAct, a trajectory-centric framework for streaming smart-home HAR that targets the most recent activity under mixed windows while explicitly modeling spatial structure. LastAct projects sensor events onto the home floorplan to form a layout-aligned trajectory image sequence that preserves spatial continuity. A lightweight gate identifies contaminated windows, and a boundary localizer estimates the last transition to enable boundary-guided masking that emphasizes post-boundary evidence and suppresses stale context. For efficiency, we reuse a precomputed layout-aligned template cache to avoid repeated rendering. Empirically, across four public smart-home datasets under near-realistic mixed-activity protocols, LastAct achieves competitive or superior performance on pure windows and yields substantial Macro-F1 gains on cross/mixed windows, demonstrating improved robustness under near-realistic sliding-window regimes.

06.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

UrbanWell: Benchmarking Multimodal Large Language Models for Spatio-Temporal Urban Wellbeing Analytics

arXiv:2606.15890v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Understanding urban wellbeing from multimodal data requires integrating heterogeneous spatial and temporal signals, posing significant challenges for current multimodal large language models (MLLMs). We introduce UrbanWell, a large-scale benchmark designed to systematically evaluate the spatio-temporal reasoning capabilities of MLLMs for urban wellbeing analytics through joint modeling of satellite and street view imagery. UrbanWell spans 38 cities across multiple years and includes diverse indicators covering (1) environmental conditions (CO$_2$, NO$_2$, PM${2.5}$, and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), (2) spatial accessibility (minimum distance to supermarkets and restaurants), (3) urban form (road length, road density, and land use), (4) urban vitality (population, economic activity diversity, and land use diversity), and (5) subjective perception attributes (e.g., safety, beauty, liveliness, wealth, and quietness). All indicators are aligned at grid level to enable standardized evaluation. Beyond static prediction, UrbanWell defines temporal reasoning tasks, including future value forecasting from historical observations and temporal trend classification. We benchmark 15 state-of-the-art representative MLLMs in a zero-shot setting, providing a comprehensive comparative evaluation across spatial and temporal dimensions. Experimental results indicate that while MLLMs capture salient spatial and perceptual cues, their performance varies substantially across heterogeneous urban indicators spanning environment and subjective perception. UrbanWell serves as a unified benchmark for evaluating multimodal spatial and temporal reasoning in urban wellbeing analytics, offering a standardized testbed for systematic assessment and future research on multimodal urban intelligence. Our codes and datasets are accessible via https://github.com/axin1301/UrbanWell-Benchmark.

07.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-24

Hessian-augmented Supervised Learning for Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman PDEs

arXiv:2606.23827v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: A data-driven method is developed for approximating value functions in deterministic optimal control problems with nonlinear control-affine dynamics. The Pontryagin Maximum Principle optimality system is solved from multiple initial conditions to generate training data consisting of values, gradients, and Hessians of the value function, where Hessian information is obtained from a matrix Riccati equation along optimal trajectories. These quantities augment a weighted least-squares regression over sparse polynomial bases on hyperbolic cross index sets, with gradients and Hessians contributing additional linear equations per sample and substantially reducing sample complexity compared to value-only regression. Feedback laws are recovered analytically from the learned value function. In high dimensions, a partial Hessian strategy controls the cost of data generation. The approach is validated on problems of increasing state dimension, where second-order data augmentation is shown to improve approximation accuracy and closed-loop performance, with up to an order-of-magnitude reduction in the number of training samples required relative to lower-order methods.

08.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Spectral Analysis of Molecular Features: When Richer Features Do Not Guarantee Better Generalization

arXiv:2510.14217v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: The spectral properties of feature embeddings offer critical insights into model generalization and representation quality. While deep learning models are widely used for molecular property prediction, kernel methods remain competitive in low-data regimes, yet their spectral behavior is largely unexplored. We present the first comprehensive spectral analysis of kernel ridge regression across diverse representations-including molecular fingerprints (ECFP), pretrained transformers, graph neural networks, and 3D descriptors-evaluated on QM9 and 3 MoleculeNet benchmarks. Surprisingly, richer spectral features do not consistently yield better generalization performance, contradicting common representation heuristics used in self-supervised learning (SSL). Across 4 spectral metrics, only ECFP-based kernels show a strictly positive correlation with performance. Transformer and global 3D representations exhibit mixed behavior, whereas local 3D representations show consistently negative correlations. Truncation analysis further emphasizes this disparity: for local 3D representations on thermodynamic targets, fewer than 2\% of eigenvalues (and occasionally as few as 0.02\%) are needed to recover 95\% of performance, whereas ECFP and transformer kernels require significantly more. By demonstrating a strong dependence on both task and representation, our results challenge the heuristic that richer spectra inherently improve generalization, providing new guidance for evaluating representations in SSL and in label-limited scientific tasks.

09.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-24

Dirac-Frenkel dynamics with inertia for nonlinearly parametrized solutions of evolution problems

arXiv:2606.24769v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Even when Dirac-Frenkel dynamics determine a well-defined evolution in function space, the corresponding parameter dynamics can be non-unique or ill-conditioned for redundant nonlinear parametrizations such as neural networks or mixture models. We propose to add inertia to the Dirac-Frenkel dynamics and show that this allows useful parameter velocity information to persist from the past trajectory in directions that are weakly informed, while well-informed parameter velocity directions continue to follow the Dirac-Frenkel dynamics. We prove that the inertial formulation yields well-posed parameter dynamics and provide a posteriori error bounds. After time discretization, the method requires the solution of the same type of regularized linear least-squares problem as standard Dirac-Frenkel dynamics, but with the previous velocity appearing as an anchor. Numerical experiments demonstrate the increased robustness obtained with inertia.

10.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-25

Tracking Large-scale Shared Bikes with Inertial Motion Learning in GNSS Blocked Environments

arXiv:2605.07412v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Although Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) provide a general solution for bike tracking outdoors, there still exist complex riding environments where only inertial navigation systems work, such as urban canyons. Despite decades of research, localization using only low-cost inertial sensors still faces challenges such as cumulative drifts and poor robustness caused by filtering methods. Furthermore, sensors such as visual and LiDAR could provide reliable measurements, but they are not suitable for large-scale deployment. In this paper, we propose an inertial tracking framework that integrates bicycle mechanical constraints with a mixture-of-experts model. Specifically, we leverage multiple expert modules to capture shared representations and weight them through the gating mechanism, thus improving multi-task learning performance and enabling uncertainty-aware trajectory estimation. Furthermore, based on the mechanical transmission between the pedal and the rear wheel of a bike, we explore the intrinsic relationship between the rider's periodic pedalling behaviors and acceleration variations, and convert such patterns into bike's wheel speed for dynamic calibration. Experiments with real-world riding data from shared bikes of the DiDi ride-hailing platform demonstrate that our system improves the accuracy of baselines by at least 12%, with wheel speed errors below 0.5 m/s at 95-percentile.

11.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-24

Task Decomposition for Efficient Annotation

High-quality annotations of structured representations are expensive to collect over large corpora. Manual annotation of structure is laborious, and model-based annotation, although cheaper to generate, requires expensive validation and potentially significant supervision to ensure that the annotation quality is strong enough to be useful downstream. In traditional annotation workflows, annotation of each complete example is performed end-to-end by a single annotator. However, structured annotation is complex, and each aspect of the task represents a unique challenge with an associated inferential load for a given annotator. Modern annotation projects can incorporate heterogeneous groups of annotators, including both models and human annotators with varying domain and linguistic expertise. It remains unclear, however, how to redesign annotation tasks in this setting, where efforts are discriminately allocated across heterogeneous annotators with respect to distinct annotation challenges. We propose to decompose annotation tasks into sub-tasks in order to reduce the aggregate inferential load of annotation projects. Inspired by the notion of centers from centering theory, we introduce a formal model of inferential load based on the degrees of freedom in the space of valid annotations. Using this model, we show that identifying these centers (i.e. salient anchor entities realized by annotation sub-tasks) constrains the output space complexity, and decompositions which isolate and advance center identification reduce the aggregate inferential load. We provide guidelines for decomposing complex structured annotation tasks, supported by examples demonstrating improved cost-efficiency from our prior work. Finally, we present a procedure for allocating sub-tasks across annotators to maximize quality under a fixed budget.

12.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-11

Exact Entanglement Dynamics Beyond Nearest-Neighbor Dual-Unitary Floquet Systems

Authors:

arXiv:2606.11311v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Exact results using dual-unitarity largely rely on nearest-neighbor structures, while finite-range interactions typically lead to complications. Going beyond the usual nearest-neighbor setting, we introduce an analytically tractable family of finite-range kicked Ising models that admit exact closed-form entanglement dynamics. The construction is based on a staggered structure in which dual-unitarity is present on sublattices that are then coupled to each other. The central observation is that these inter-sublattice couplings do not obstruct the dual-unitarity of the resulting model. For the minimal interaction range of $r= 2$, we derive exact expressions for all the $n-$Rényi entanglement entropies at all times and show that the result is the sum of the two coupled sublattice contributions. Our framework extends naturally to larger finite interaction ranges and to systems with heterogeneous local Hilbert spaces, without additional assumptions. It thus provides a controlled setting for studying exact entanglement growth beyond strictly nearest-neighbor dual-unitary models.

13.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-23

Shared Polygenic Architecture Across Arteriopathies: An Integrative Cross-Trait Analysis

Background: Non-monogenic arteriopathies are often classified as distinct entities according to the arterial territory involved, yet they share clinical features and may co-occur in the same individual. This pattern suggests shared susceptibility across anatomically distinct arteriopathies, potentially driven by common biological and genetic mechanisms. Methods: We investigated the shared genetic architecture of five arteriopathies (cervical artery dissection (CeAD), intracranial aneurysm (IA), spontaneous coronary artery dissection (SCAD), aortic aneurysm and dissection (AAD), and fibromuscular dysplasia (FMD)) using LD score regression, Association analysis based on SubSETs (ASSET), pairwise Multi-Trait Analysis of Genome-wide association summary statistics (MTAG), pleiotropy mapping and Mendelian randomization (MR) to identify shared loci and prioritise candidate causal genes. Results: LD score regression identified significant positive genetic correlations between CeAD-SCAD (rg = 0.64), IA-AAD (rg = 0.33), IA-SCAD (rg = 0.37), CeAD-AAD (rg = 0.56) and SCAD-AAD (rg = 0.20). ASSET identified 37 shared independent loci, and in MTAG analyses, one novel locus was identified for CeAD and SCAD (SLC39A8) and one for IA (FGF5). 13 loci showed strong cross-trait colocalization, including PHACTR1, LRP1, and CDKN2B-AS1. Using the Genotype-Phenotype Map, we found that arteriopathy-associated variants colocalized with blood pressure- and migraine-related traits, while many showed effect directions opposite to those observed for coronary artery disease. Proteome-wide MR identified 67 circulating proteins associated with at least one trait, including ECM1 and SHISA5 for CeAD and FGF5 for IA, with 17 supported by colocalization. Transcriptome-wide MR identified 204 colocalized tissue?specific signals, of which, 14 were shared across multiple traits. Enrichment analyses implicated pathways related to vascular development, smooth muscle cell function, extracellular matrix organization, and TGF-? signaling. Conclusions: These findings support shared genetic architecture across anatomically distinct arteriopathies, implicating pathways involved in vascular structure and prioritising therapeutic targets for future mechanistic investigation.

14.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-12

MDForge: Agentic Molecular Dynamics Pipeline Design under Sparse Simulator Feedback

Molecular dynamics (MD) is the canonical in-silico method for atomistic molecular science, simulating molecular behavior from first-principle physics. Designing an MD pipeline for a new system requires substantial expert knowledge: running it on even one molecule is expensive, ruling out trial-and-error. We automate this expert pipeline-design process with an LLM agent. Unlike existing MD agents that orchestrate a predefined tool set, we treat pipeline design as open-ended code generation in which the agent's behavior is reshaped online by verbal reward. Specifically, we build MDForge, an LLM agent whose in-context update rule densifies the sparse reward via a multi-agent debate among physics experts. On three SAMPL host-guest binding free-energy benchmarks, MDForge automatically designs MD pipelines competitive with human experts. Deployed on a library of unseen candidate guests, its CB[7] pipeline discovers a novel binder that wet-lab competition NMR confirms is a high-affinity, picomolar CB[7] binder. Our data and code are available at https://github.com/Zehong-Wang/MDForge.

15.
Nature (Science) 2026-06-24

GW250114 reveals signatures of post-merger black-hole horizon

Authors:

The horizon of a black hole, the ‘surface of no return’, is characterized by its rotation frequency ΩH and surface gravity κ. A striking signature is that any infalling object appears to orbit at ΩH owing to frame dragging, while its emitted signals decay exponentially at a rate set by κ as a consequence of gravitational redshift. Recent theoretical work1 predicts that gravitational waves from binary black-hole mergers carry direct imprints of the properties of the merger remnant in the form of a ‘direct wave’. This gravitational-wave component oscillates near 2ΩH, reflecting the horizon’s frame dragging, and decays at an increasing rate characterized by κ, with additional screening from the black hole’s spacetime. Here we report observational evidence of a direct wave in GW2501142, with a 90% credible matched-filter signal-to-noise ratio of $${15.8}_{-0.5}^{+0.1}$$ ( $${17.1}_{-0.4}^{+0.1}$$ ) in the LIGO Hanford (Livingston) detector. The measured properties are in full agreement with theoretical predictions for a Kerr black hole. These findings establish an observational channel to directly measure frame-dragging effects in black-hole ergospheres and explore (near-)horizon physics in dynamical, strong-gravity regimes. The observation of a direct wave after the merger of two black holes reveals signatures associated with the remnant black-hole horizon, establishing an observational channel to directly measure frame-dragging effects in black-hole ergospheres and probe the horizon surface gravity.

16.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-12

SmartFont: Dynamic Condition Allocation for Few-Shot Font Generation

Few-shot font generation simultaneously requires global structural completeness and fine-grained local style fidelity. Existing methods usually either rely on global content-style modeling, which is robust but imperfectly disentangled, or emphasize component/local modeling, which captures fine details but relies heavily on local priors and reference coverage. We argue that the key challenge is not merely to learn purer conditions, but to organize complementary yet biased global and local conditions through multi-level allocation during generation. To this end, we propose SmartFont, a diffusion-based few-shot font generation framework that combines global content-style generation with weakly supervised local corrective experts. The local branch performs semantic-spatial allocation by learning expert-wise local concepts and semantically meaningful spatial maps under weak component supervision, enabling fine-grained correction without requiring explicit component-conditioned inference. On top of this, a denoising-state condition allocation module adaptively weights global content, global style, and local corrective feature across timesteps and injection blocks. Extensive experiments show that SmartFont achieves better global-local balance, improves glyph quality and local detail fidelity.

17.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-15

Can LLMs Accurately Score Medical Diagnoses and Clinical Reasoning?

arXiv:2604.14892v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Evaluating medical AI systems using expert clinician panels is costly and slow, motivating the use of large language models (LLMs) as alternative adjudicators. Here, we evaluate an LLM Jury, composed of three frontier AI models, for scoring 3334 diagnoses on 300 real-world low- and middle-income country (LMIC) hospital cases. Both LLM- and clinician-generated diagnoses are scored against expert panel diagnoses across four dimensions: diagnosis, differential diagnosis, clinical reasoning, and negative treatment risk. The LLM Jury scores are compared with expert and independent re-scoring panel scores to assess error metrics, inter-rater agreement, severe-risk errors, and the effect of post hoc calibration using isotonic regression. In our data, we find that: (i) the uncalibrated LLM Jury scores preserve ordinal agreement with the expert clinician panel scores, but are systematically lower; (ii) the probability of severe-risk errors is lower for the LLM Jury than the human expert re-score panels; (iii) the LLM Jury combined with LLM diagnoses can be used to identify diagnoses at high risk of error, enabling targeted expert review and improved panel efficiency; (iv) the calibrated LLM Jury scores and rankings of diagnosing agents show excellent agreement with those of the primary expert panels; (v) LLM Jury models show no self-preference bias, they did not score diagnoses generated by their own underlying model or models from the same vendor more (or less) favourably than those generated by other models. Together, these results provide evidence that a calibrated LLM Jury is a trustworthy and reliable proxy for expert clinician evaluation in medical AI benchmarking. Confirming these findings in other clinical settings is an important direction for future work.

18.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-15

OLaPh: Optimal Language Phonemizer

Phonemization is a critical component in text-to-speech synthesis. Traditional approaches rely on deterministic transformations and lexica, while neural methods offer potential for higher generalization on out-of-vocabulary (OOV) terms. We introduce OLaPh (Optimal Language Phonemizer), a hybrid framework that integrates extensive multilingual lexica with advanced NLP techniques and a statistical subword segmentation function. Evaluations on the WikiPron benchmark show OLaPh significantly outperforms established baselines in overall accuracy and maintains robustness on OOV data through advanced fallback mechanisms. To further explore neural generalization, we utilize the framework to synthesize a high-consistency training corpus for an instruction-tuned Large Language Model (LLM). While the deterministic framework remains more accurate overall, the LLM demonstrates strong generalization, matching or partly exceeding the framework's performance. This suggests that the LLM successfully internalized phonetic intuitions from the synthetic data that transcend the framework's capabilities. Together, these tools provide a comprehensive, open-source resource for multilingual grapheme-to-phoneme conversion (G2P) research.

19.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-16

Semiclassical Gravity Efficiently Solves $\mathsf{NP}$-Complete Problems

arXiv:2606.14806v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Assuming the gravitational field is classical and that it couples to quantum fields via the semiclassical Einstein field equations, we show that the weak-field dynamics of a massive and non-relativistic qubit can in principle be used to solve an $\mathsf{NP}$-complete problem in polynomial time. We attribute this vast computational power to the non-linear dynamics afforded by the semiclassical Einstein field equations. Consequently, the above two assumptions entail a violation of the Physical Extended Church–Turing Thesis, which we regard as evidence for the quantization of gravity.

20.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-11

WorldReasoner: Evaluating Whether Language Model Agents Forecast Events with Valid Reasoning

Forecasting real-world events requires language-model agents to reason under uncertainty from incomplete, time-bounded information. Yet evaluating whether agents genuinely forecast requires more than final-answer accuracy: a model may be correct by recalling memorized training facts, citing fabricated evidence, or producing an unsupported causal story. We present WorldReasoner, an evaluation framework for temporally valid event forecasting. Each task gives an agent a resolved forecasting question, a simulated forecast date, and access only to evidence available before that date; after resolution, the framework scores the submitted probability, cited evidence, and optional causal event graph. WorldReasoner reports three complementary axes: outcome quality against resolved answers, evidence quality over cited sources, and reasoning quality against post-resolution hindsight graphs. The benchmark is built by an agentic construction pipeline that generates forecasting questions, collects time-stamped evidence, and builds hindsight reference graphs at scale, yielding 345 resolved tasks derived from 14,141 articles with graphs covering 8,087 extracted events. Across six controlled agent settings, temporally valid retrieval is the strongest driver of outcome accuracy; causal graph construction improves key-event recovery; and correct graph-enabled forecasts are more strongly grounded in key events and relevant sources, yet agents still struggle to convert grounded evidence into calibrated probabilities.

21.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-11

K-Forcing: Joint Next-K-Token Decoding via Push-Forward Language Modeling

Autoregressive (AR) language modeling is the dominant paradigm for text generation, yet its sequential token-by-token decoding makes inference memory-bound and inefficient. Existing acceleration approaches, such as speculative decoding and diffusion language models, can yield speedups under certain conditions but do not directly address high-load batch serving–the scenario most critical for industrial-scale deployment. We introduce K-Forcing, a push-forward language modeling paradigm for joint next-k-token decoding. K-Forcing distills an existing AR model into a conditional push-forward mapping–one that transforms independent uniform noise variables into a joint sample of multiple future tokens in a single forward pass. This design preserves fixed-length outputs, reuses the AR teacher backbone, and remains compatible with standard AR serving infrastructure. We train this mapping via progressive self-forcing distillation, which gradually expands the prediction window while enabling the student to closely match the sequence distribution of the AR teacher. We evaluate K-Forcing on LM1B and OpenWebText using a standard causal Transformer backbone. When aggressively configured to generate k = 4 tokens per forward pass, K-Forcing delivers approximately 2.4-3.5x speedup across different batch sizes, while incurring modest quality degradation relative to its AR teacher. As inference increasingly dominates the lifetime compute cost of modern LLMs, K-Forcing offers a promising route toward accelerating AR generation under real-world high-load deployment.

22.
bioRxiv (Bioinfo) 2026-06-18

Calculation of sequence space coverage in a mutagenesis library

Directed evolution requires screening of large mutagenesis libraries, but accurate calculation of library sizes needed to discover functional variants remains challenging. Existing models provide baseline estimates, yet current computational approaches for finding the best variants scale poorly with library complexity. Here, we introduce a scalable algorithmic framework to compute exact discovery probabilities in saturation mutagenesis libraries with no requirement for explicit sequence enumeration. By aggregating variants into a composition log–sum distribution and applying log-space convolution across randomisation blocks, it is possible to extend this to massive sequence spaces and mixed codon schemes. By inverting these calculations, absolute mathematical ceilings for experimental design are established. Ultimately, this framework provides a rapid, quantitative tool to balance the statistical coverage-diversity trade-off within the limitations of laboratory screening. Finally, this is implemented as an open-source web application (SSCC) that allows researchers to construct heterogeneous library designs and compute required sampling depths, coverage probabilities, and absolute randomisation limits.

23.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

Where Did It Go Wrong? Process-Level Evaluation of Web Agents with Semantic State Tracking

arXiv:2606.15673v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Web agents act through long interaction sequences, yet existing benchmarks evaluate only terminal success, discarding all process information and offering little guidance on improvement. In this work, we conduct a process-level analysis of web agents. We introduce WebStep, a benchmark of 1,800 task instances with controlled difficulty and automatic semantic state tracking. Each website exposes a deterministic semantic MDP alongside the GUI: the agent operates on the interface, while the environment records high-level states and transitions in the background, enabling fine-grained analysis without manual annotation. Based on the semantic trajectory, we first show that process metrics reveal differences invisible to outcome evaluation: three agents whose success rates cluster within 31-33% diverge in exploration reach versus execution accuracy. Then, decomposing by skill characterizes the nature of these differences, exposing opposite per-skill rankings hidden within the same website: e.g., on Housing, OpenAI CUA outperforms Qwen3.5 by 23.7% on commit actions yet underperforms it by 15.6% on filtering, pinpointing a concrete skill to improve even within a domain. Bifurcation analysis further localizes the decisive error that loses the task and shows that this error is agent-specific rather than shared. Finally, these differences widen as tasks grow harder: success rate is similar on easy tasks but separates sharply as exploration becomes more demanding. Our process-level analysis opens a new avenue in web agent evaluation, providing fine-grained and actionable insight into where and how each agent should be improved.

24.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-11

Irresponsible AI: big tech's influence on AI research and associated impacts

arXiv:2512.03077v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: The accelerated development, deployment and adoption of artificial intelligence systems has been fuelled by the increasing presence of big tech in the AI field. This trend has been accompanied by growing ethical concerns and intensified societal and environmental impacts. This position paper argues that irresponsible AI development is strongly driven by big tech's influence and involvement in the field. First, we examine the growing and disproportionate influence of big tech in AI research and argue that its drive for scaling and general-purpose systems is fundamentally at odds with the responsible, ethical, and sustainable development of AI. Second, we review key current environmental and societal negative impacts of AI and trace their connections to big tech's influence. Third, we discuss the underlying economic forces driving big tech's actions. Finally, as a call to action, we invite AI researchers to counter big tech's influence in irresponsible AI development through strategies that build on the responsibility of implicated actors and collective action.

25.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Enhancing Visual Feature Attribution via Weighted Integrated Gradients

arXiv:2505.03201v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Integrated Gradients (IG) is a widely used attribution method in explainable AI, particularly in computer vision applications where reliable feature attribution is essential. A key limitation of IG is its sensitivity to the choice of baseline (reference) images. Multi-baseline extensions such as Expected Gradients (EG) assume uniform weighting over baselines, implicitly treating all baseline images as equally informative. In high-dimensional vision models, this assumption often leads to noisy or unstable explanations. This paper proposes Weighted Integrated Gradients (WG), a principled approach that evaluates and weights baselines to enhance attribution reliability. WG introduces an unsupervised criterion for baseline suitability, enabling adaptive selection and weighting of baselines on a per-input basis. The method preserves the core axiomatic properties of IG in a generalized weighted-baseline form. Under an expected, proxy-based fitness–relevance monotonicity assumption, WG provides a probabilistic justification for assigning larger weights to more informative baselines. Experiments on commonly used image datasets and models show that WG improves over EG under our protocol, with up to 36% gains across evaluated convolutional and Transformer architectures. These gains come with additional fitness-evaluation cost, so WG should be viewed as an attribution-fidelity trade-off rather than a faster alternative to EG. By moving beyond the assumption that all baselines contribute equally, Weighted Integrated Gradients offers a clearer and more reliable approach to explaining computer-vision models, improving both understanding and practical usability in explainable AI.