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01.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-18

Human-AI Coevolution Dynamics: A Formal Theory of Social Intelligence Emergence Through Long-Term Interaction

Current conversational AI systems have made significant progress in language generation, personalization, and long-context interaction. However, most existing methods model social behavior through isolated components such as emotion modeling, memory retrieval, or persona conditioning, lacking a unified framework to explain the emergence of stable social relationships and social intelligence in long-term human-AI interaction.To address this, we propose the Human-AI Coevolution Dynamics Framework (HACD-H), a formal model of human-AI interaction as a self-organizing social cognitive system. HACD-H integrates emotional adaptation, relational organization, social memory, and personality consistency into a unified dynamical framework and introduces principles including multi-timescale social cognition, relational attractors, trust basins, developmental phase transitions, and social cognitive energy dynamics.We construct a conversational dataset with approximately 14,700 interaction turns and develop a theory-driven empirical evaluation framework. Results reveal a hierarchy of temporal persistence in social cognition, stable relational attractors, phase-transition-like developmental patterns, and a structured social cognitive energy landscape. Social intelligence shows a significant negative correlation with social cognitive energy (r = -0.391, p < 0.001), and interaction trajectories exhibit progressive energy reduction over time.These findings suggest that social intelligence emerges from long-term social cognitive coevolution rather than isolated conversational capabilities. HACD-H provides a unified theoretical foundation for modeling adaptive human-AI social interaction and developing socially intelligent AI systems.

02.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

A Tool for the Synthesis of Adaptive Probabilistic Processors Based on the Ising Model

arXiv:2606.19533v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: This work presents a tool for the synthesis and simulation of probabilistic architectures for solving combinatorial optimization problems by mapping them to the Ising model. The proposed approach automatically constructs the Ising Hamiltonian and determines the number of probabilistic elements (p-bits) based on problem characteristics such as size and topology. Furthermore, the tool introduces an adaptive strategy for selecting the most suitable update algorithm among Gibbs Sampling, Simulated Annealing (SA), Simulated Quantum Annealing (SQA), and cluster-based methods. Experimental results using benchmark problems demonstrate improved convergence behavior and flexibility compared to fixed approaches. The proposed framework enables systematic evaluation of probabilistic computing strategies and supports the development of future hardware implementations based on MTJs and p-bits.

03.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-11

NightFeats @ MMU-RAGent NeurIPS 2025: A Context-Optimized Multi-Agent RAG System for the Text-to-Text Track

We present NightFeats, a structured multi-agent retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) system submitted to the MMU-RAGent competition at NeurIPS 2025, where it was awarded Best Dynamic Evaluation in the text-to-text track. Rather than targeting benchmark maximization, this work proposes a principled pipeline that decomposes knowledge synthesis into three coordinated phases: retrieval, curation, and composition, each governed by explicit intermediate representations and handoff contracts. Inspired by Agentic Context Engineering (ACE), the system introduces temporal-semantic reranking, bounded contradiction reconciliation, and citation-preserving composition as core architectural primitives. Competition results show that NightFeats surpasses proprietary baselines including Claude-SonnetV2 and Nova-Pro on LLM-as-a-Judge and Human Likert evaluations, confirming that architectural transparency and verifiable evidence grounding are better aligned with human preferences than systems optimizing narrowly for automatic similarity metrics.

04.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-15

Which Directions Matter? Sparse Design for Affine Robust Optimization

arXiv:2606.14648v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Robust machine learning and optimization rely on the uncertainty model choice. We investigate which uncertainty directions a model must cover when defined by a finite dictionary and a budget constraint. Selecting a subset forms an atomic uncertainty set with a closed form support function, yielding tractable robust programs for affine objectives. We propose a data driven selection rule based on a coverage objective over evaluation directions, including gradients, adversarial perturbations, or shifts observed on held out data. We prove this objective is monotone and submodular, supporting a greedy method with a $(1-1/e)$ approximation guarantee and a matching hardness barrier. We also provide a certificate bounding the loss from the selected subset and a radius calibration rule with out of sample control.

05.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-12

Toward Entanglement Bootstrap for Conformal Field Theory in Any Dimension

arXiv:2606.12540v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Given a quantum critical wavefunction in any dimension, we propose a reconstructed Hamiltonian, analogous to the ones previously found for 1+1d CFT and for 2+1d bosonic liquid topologically-ordered states. We test numerically that, for known regularized approximate CFT groundstates (on the icosahedron and the fuzzy sphere), (1) they are close to the groundstate of their reconstructed Hamiltonian, and (2) the spectrum of their reconstructed Hamiltonian on the unit sphere has CFT properties (integer spacing of descendants) and matches known low-lying energies. We show that this provides an automated method to improve the finite-size effects in a fixed Hilbert space.

06.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-24

VoltanaLLM: Energy-Efficient and SLO-Aware Disaggregated LLM Serving via Adaptive Frequency Control and State-Space Routing

arXiv:2509.04827v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: The energy cost of Large Language Model (LLM) inference is rapidly becoming a barrier to sustainable and scalable deployment. Although modern serving architectures expose distinct prefill and decode behaviors, existing systems fail to exploit these phase differences for energy-efficient serving under strict latency SLOs. This paper introduces VoltanaLLM, the first system that explicitly targets and reduces the energy bloat in modern prefill-decode (P/D) disaggregated LLM serving. Guided by a control-theory perspective, VoltanaLLM separates two levers: per-instance operating-point selection (GPU frequency per iteration) and system-level state-space routing of requests. We empirically observe that LLM inference exhibits a U-shaped energy-frequency curve creating "sweet spots" that depend on phase behavior and load. VoltanaLLM exploits this by combining phase-specific, iteration-level frequency selection driven by a lightweight, online-adaptive latency predictor, with a decode state-space guided router that avoids architectural granularity-induced inefficiencies, all while meeting desired SLOs. We implement VoltanaLLM using SGLang and evaluate it across multiple models and real-world workloads. Our results show VoltanaLLM reduces end-to-end energy by up to 36.3% versus a static max-frequency baseline while maintaining high SLO attainment, and generalizes to newer GPUs. These results point to sustainable LLM serving via phase-aware, iteration-level frequency selection coupled with architecture-aware routing. Source code is available in https://github.com/Supercomputing-System-AI-Lab/VoltanaLLM.

07.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

Null-Space Diffusion Distillation Unlocks Speed, Fidelity and Realism in Lensless Imaging

Lensless imaging reconstructs scenes from highly multiplexed measurements, resulting in a severely ill-posed inverse problem. In this work, we identify a fundamental trade-off between measurement consistency, perceptual quality, and inference speed across lensless reconstruction paradigms. Traditional methods favor consistency but produce perceptually degraded results, supervised approaches achieve high-quality reconstructions with fast inference but may violate physical constraints, and diffusion-prior methods achieve high perceptual quality and consistency–particularly when structured constraints such as range-null decomposition are used–but remain slow due to iterative sampling. Motivated by this observation, we propose Null-Space Diffusion Distillation (NSDD), a single-pass reconstruction model that distills structured diffusion-prior inference into an efficient feed-forward network. NSDD learns to produce high-quality reconstructions that preserve measurement consistency while avoiding costly iterative sampling. Experimental results demonstrate that NSDD achieves perceptual quality and consistency competitive with diffusion-prior methods, while providing significantly faster inference and offering a favorable balance across all three objectives. Furthermore, ablation experiments show that distilling the range–null decomposition improves reconstruction quality and robustness over unstructured full-reconstruction distillation, including on unseen real scenes. These results highlight the potential of structure-aware distillation for efficient lensless imaging. Code is available at github.com/JRCSAVSN/NullSpaceDiffusionDistillation.

08.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-11

Fun with Graph States: Nonlocal Bell Pairs and the Arf Invariant

arXiv:2606.06582v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We study inner products and partial amplitudes of graph states–a commonly employed class of quantum states, which are specified by graphs. We find that the magnitudes of these quantities are simply related to the rank of the adjacency matrix of the graph over F_2 while the phase is determined by the Arf invariant of its quadratic refinement. These facts motivate a nonlocal tensor factorization of the Hilbert space, with respect to which all graph states are products of Bell pairs with unentangled ancillae. These results may illuminate the quantum advantage in the framework of Measurement-Based Quantum Computation and suggest that graph states can be usefully visualized in the language of algebraic topology. In addition, we develop a specialized technique for computing expectation values of qubit-wise permutations in graph states, which is useful for calculating multi-invariants.

09.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Semi-Supervised Speech Confidence Detection using Pseudo-Labelling and Whisper Embeddings

arXiv:2606.16505v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Understanding speaker confidence is crucial in educational settings, as it can enhance personalised feedback and improve learning outcomes. This study introduces a novel framework for detecting speaker confidence by integrating human-engineered features with embeddings from the Whisper encoder. To address data limitations, a pseudo-labelling technique is employed to expand the labelled dataset, allowing the model to learn from both human-annotated and model-generated labels. The framework combines traditional speech features including pitch, volume, rate of speech, and the presence of disfluencies and stress, with Whisper embeddings, and uses a co-attention mechanism to fuse these representations and achieve an overall accuracy of 75%. This study contributes to advancing speech analysis, enabling applications that support personalised learning and speaking skill development.

10.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-11

Mahalanobis-Guided Latent OOD Detection for Hybrid ES-DRL Control in Time-Varying Systems

arXiv:2606.11474v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In this paper, we study Mahalanobis-guided latent out-of-distribution (OOD) detection for test-time RL controller switching in nonlinear time-varying systems. RL controllers can quickly control high-dimensional systems within the training distribution, but their performance can degrade when time-varying dynamics produce unseen observations. We consider a combined ES–DRL controller, where RL provides fast in-distribution actions and bounded extremum seeking (ES) provides robust model-independent control under OOD operation. The key challenge is deciding when to switch. We train a variational autoencoder (VAE) on in-distribution beam-profile observations and use Mahalanobis distance in the VAE latent space to detect OOD beam profiles at test time. This OOD decision sets a binary switch that selects either the RL controller or the ES controller. We evaluate the approach in safety-critical particle accelerator control. In this setting, spatial magnet motion creates OOD beam profiles that were not seen during RL training. Visualization of the VAE latent space shows that the proposed method identifies this OOD scenario and provides an interpretable signal for switching between RL and ES in the combined controller.

11.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

Fantastic Scientific Agents and How to Build Them: AgentBuild for Rietveld Refinement

arXiv:2606.12834v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: As scientific workflows shift from deterministic executables to LLM-based agents, the development practices on offer, such as fine-tuning, reinforcement learning, and prompt-and-go, bury the scientist's judgment. We propose treating agent construction as a workflow stage and introduce AgentBuild, which builds a scientific agent from a contract the scientist authors. The contract is a version-controlled rubric, a difficulty-graded curriculum, and a curated external knowledge base. A rubric-driven judge gates a meta-optimizer coding agent that edits the agent within a declared boundary, so the build compiles the agent, not the scientist's judgment. We instantiate this for Rietveld refinement of X-ray diffraction data through GSAS-II behind MCP and A2A, where a blank-harness construction run progresses through a lithium lanthanum zirconium oxide (LLZO) signal-to-noise ladder, reaches the 4 hour scan as a frontier case, and exposes the workflow-scope limits that remain. The same rubric that rewards credible fits also scores trajectory scope, making the frontier a contract failure rather than a pattern-fitting failure. As base models evolve, re-running AgentBuild is a re-tune, not a rebuild, and the scientist's authored contract remains the durable asset.

12.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-15

When Should Agent Trust Be Conditional? Characterizing and Attacking Skill-Conditional Reputation in Agent Swarms

arXiv:2606.14200v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Open platforms increasingly route tasks among heterogeneous LLM agents–differing in base model, scaffold, and tool stack–whose competence varies sharply by skill: an agent excellent at one skill may be useless at another. The standard reputation approach summarizes each agent by a single global trust score, but that scalar is the wrong object here, because routing every task to the globally most-trusted agent leaves the value of specialization unclaimed. We study skill-conditional trust R(i | k)–the trust to place in agent i for a task requiring skill k, rather than one score per agent–and pose three falsifiable questions: when is conditioning worth it, how much cross-skill evidence should be borrowed, and whether that borrowing is safe. A controlled phase-diagram analysis answers the first two: conditional trust wins only in a specific regime–high agent heterogeneity, sparse per-skill evidence, and correlated skills–and the coupling strength beta that buys this data efficiency is dual-use, because the same cross-skill borrowing is also a laundering channel. On a public benchmark of 14 genuinely heterogeneous AppWorld agents, real pools land inside the beneficial regime–a small but genuine gain, with the per-skill best agent genuinely changing across skills. We then show that an attacker with cheap evidence in one skill and none in a target skill hijacks the conditional router, driving routing regret from 0 to 0.94 on a pool our zero-cost Conditional Information Value Test (CIVT) rates GREEN–while the ungated trust verdict it contaminates reads -0.06 instead of the honest +0.19. A zero-evidence gate bounds the attack but does not eliminate it; we characterize the residual cost under an explicit budget. We do not claim Sybil-resistance–we quantify the trade-off.

13.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

Modeling Sarcastic Speech: Semantic and Prosodic Cues in a Speech Synthesis Framework

Sarcasm is a pragmatic phenomenon in which speakers convey meanings that diverge from literal content, relying on an interaction between semantics and prosodic expression. However, how these cues jointly contribute to the recognition of sarcasm remains poorly understood. We propose a computational framework that models sarcasm as the integration of semantic interpretation and prosodic realization. Semantic cues are derived from an LLaMA 3 model fine-tuned to capture discourse-level markers of sarcastic intent, while prosodic cues are extracted through semantically aligned utterances drawn from a database of sarcastic speech, providing prosodic exemplars of sarcastic delivery. Using a speech synthesis testbed, perceptual evaluations show that semantic and prosodic cues enhance perceived sarcasm, with the combined system achieving the best downstream F1 while maintaining high subjective sarcasm ratings. These findings highlight the complementary roles of semantics and prosody in pragmatic interpretation and illustrate how modeling can shed light on the mechanisms underlying sarcastic communication.

14.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-12

Non-Hermitian skin effect induced by spatial noncommutativity

arXiv:2606.12961v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In all known schemes for the non-Hermitian skin effect, the non-Hermitian ingredient that drives the skin localization, whether asymmetric hopping or gain and loss, is invariably introduced by hand as an independent model parameter along the skin direction. Here we show that when two spatial coordinates do not commute, the skin effect can break free of this paradigm: a gain-loss potential applied along one coordinate automatically generates non-reciprocity along the other through the coordinate noncommutativity, driving all eigenstates to pile up exponentially at a boundary. We term this phenomenon the noncommutative skin effect. The inverse skin length is proportional to the noncommutativity parameter and is given by an analytic formula, exact in the thermodynamic limit and verified by exact diagonalization of lattice models; the reflection symmetry of the imaginary potential furnishes an exact criterion for the presence or absence of the effect, valid rigorously for finite-size systems. For a sinusoidal imaginary potential, the skin direction of all eigenstates flips collectively at parameter points fixed purely by geometry. Because the flip point is independent of the potential strength, the reversal constitutes a zero-crossing measurement scheme intrinsically robust against systematic errors, from which the noncommutativity parameter can be extracted directly. The qualitative transition of the eigenstates from uniform to exponentially localized renders the effect a nonperturbative probe of spatial noncommutativity, and the Peierls-phase structure of its lattice model is in principle accessible to cold-atom synthetic dimensions, photonic resonators, and topolectrical circuits.

15.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Finite Resources False Discovery Rate Control in Structured Hypothesis Spaces

arXiv:2606.15393v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Scientific discovery relies on large-scale hypothesis testing. However, the capacity to identify true discoveries while controlling false discovery faces major challenges: obtaining relevant reference data (the null distribution) is resource-intensive, leaving finite-data uncertainty, and the procedure should account for the inherent structure in the hypothesis space, when such structure exists. Here, we present a framework for controlling the false discovery rate both when each hypothesis is evidenced only by a finite count of null draws, leaving its p-value uncertain, and when the hypothesis space carries arbitrary structure, requiring only that the structure be represented through a suitable reproducing kernel. We present two decision rules that are both robust to structural mis-specification, yet offer a distinct trade-off between exact FDR control and statistical power. The first rule guarantees exact FDR control; the second maximizes power by adapting mirror-statistic control into count space, utilizing an analytical framework to assess FDR control when exact mirror symmetry is relaxed. Furthermore, the tractability gained by the RKHS framework allows us to directly investigate finite-data uncertainties, which we leverage to suggest a policy for the efficient allocation of null distribution samples.

16.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-11

Quantum Entanglement, Stratified Spaces, and Topological Matter: Towards Entanglement-Sensitive Langlands Data

arXiv:2601.13467v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Using the spinless Haldane model, we study the witness-filtered Berry curvature, quantum geometric tensor, and quantum Fisher information on the gapped strata of the parameter space and evaluate them through the Fukui-Hatsugai-Suzuki discretization. The filtered quantities isolate the part of the geometric response carried by sublattice coherence: they suppress contributions from regions where the occupied Bloch state is locally A/B-separable and emphasize regions where curvature and coherence coexist. We derive exact lattice identities, reconstruction formulas for the curvature-weighted coherence, and bounds relating the filtered quantum geometric tensor and quantum Fisher information to single-particle mode entanglement. Across the gap-closing stratum, the quantized response changes admit a natural description in terms of Hecke modifications. We elicit a corresponding Langlands viewpoint – not as a full correspondence, but as an organizational principle and as the mathematical shadow of these physical geometric constructions.

17.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-19

Quantum Entanglement Degree, Mean Positronium Lifetime, and the $3\gamma$/$2\gamma$ Annihilation-Rate Ratio as Novel PET Biomarkers for Hypoxia – Concept, Challenges, and Predictions

Authors:

arXiv:2605.00021v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: This manuscript introduces a novel method to assess tissue oxygen concentration via the quantum entanglement (QE) of photons originating from positronium which is produced within the patient's body during positron emission tomography. We also investigate the possibility of assessing hypoxia by simultaneously detecting positronium lifetime and the positronium decay rate ratio. We introduce two distinct quantum sensing approaches. Method 1 utilizes the correlation between oxygen concentration and ortho-positronium (o-Ps) decay rates, relying on the simultaneous measurement of the mean o-Ps lifetime ($\tau_{\mathrm{oPs}}$) and the $3\gamma$-to-$2\gamma$ annihilation rate ratio of o-Ps ($R_{\mathrm{oPs-3\gamma/2\gamma}}$). Method 2 introduces a novel hypothesis: that the degree of QE is sensitive to the relative contribution of annihilation mechanisms (pick-off vs. conversion), which in turn depends on oxygen concentration. We derive a formula for partial pressure of oxygen ($p\mathrm{O}_2$) as a function of $R_{\mathrm{oPs-3\gamma/2\gamma}}$ and $\tau_{\mathrm{oPs}}$ and estimate the measurement accuracy required for these parameters - and for the degree of QE - to sense in-vivo oxygen pressure in the range between hypoxic and physoxic conditions. Theoretical models and quantitative estimates for $R_{\mathrm{oPs-3\gamma/2\gamma}}$, $\tau_{\mathrm{oPs}}$ and for the degree of QE ($C_{\mathrm{QE}}$ ) as a function of $p\mathrm{O}_2$ are provided for water, isopropanol, cyclohexane, isooctane, and adipose tissue. In particular, applying the formulas derived under the working hypothesis that in pick-off process the photons are not entangled, we estimated that for $p\mathrm{O}_2 = 0$, the degree of quantum entanglement $C_{\mathrm{QE}}$ is equal to 0.890 for adipose, 0.886 for isopropanol, 0.867 for water, 0.818 for cyclohexane, and 0.784 for isooctane.

18.
PLOS Medicine 2026-05-29

Characterization of the VHH-Fc construct rimteravimab in healthy adults and patients hospitalized for mild-to-moderate COVID-19: Two Phase 1 randomized clinical trials

Authors:

by Ellen Jansen, Viki Bockstal, Florence Herschke, Per Olsson Gisleskog, Manuela Rinaldi, Angélique Boerboom, Salah Hadi, Natalia Gaibu, Michel Moutschen, Dominique Tersago Background Variable Heavy domain of Heavy chains (VHH) are innovative tools to target unique epitopes, yet few have been developed as heavy chain-only antibodies for clinical use. Rimteravimab (referred to here as XVR011) is a humanized antibody developed for the treatment of mild-to-moderate coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), consisting of two identical VHHs targeting the receptor binding domain (RBD) of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spike, with a human immunoglobulin (Ig) G1 fragment constant of antibody (Fc), silenced for Fc effector functions. We conducted two Phase 1 studies in healthy volunteers or hospitalized COVID-19 patients to evaluate its safety, tolerability, pharmacokinetics and immunogenicity. Methods and findings A randomized, double-blinded, single-center, placebo-controlled, single ascending dose study was performed in healthy volunteers (Phase 1a, EXEVIR0102, EudraCT 2021-003707-17), in parallel to an open-label, multi-center, single ascending dose study in patients hospitalized for mild to moderate COVID-19 (Phase 1b, EXEVIR0101, EudraCT 2020-005299-36, NCT04884295). Participants received a single intravenous infusion of 250, 500 or 1,000 mg of XVR011. The primary objective for both trials was the safety and tolerability of XVR011. Pharmacokinetics were evaluated as a secondary objective in Phase 1a and as an exploratory objective in Phase 1b. Efficacy (evaluated as respiratory parameters and COVID-19 clinical status) and antiviral activity in patients were evaluated as a secondary objective in Phase 1b. Immunogenicity was evaluated as an exploratory objective. Part 2 of the EXEVIR0101 study (initially a phase 1b/2 study) was not conducted due to the loss of XVR011 potency against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2. Demographics, safety, efficacy, and immunogenicity were analyzed using descriptive statistics, while pharmacokinetics were analyzed with noncompartmental pharmacokinetics (PK) modeling.In the Phase 1a study, there were no infusion-related reactions, serious treatment-emergent adverse events (TEAEs) or TEAEs grade ≥3. 22/30 volunteers (73.3%) reported 53 TEAEs (49 Grade 1, 4 Grade 2) with none being related to XVR011. The most common TEAE was headache (n = 8, 26.7%) in various treatment groups. In the Phase 1b study, 27 hospitalized patients were enrolled, and followed up to 30 days. Seven patients (25.9%) reported a total of 15 TEAEs, the majority (80%) being mild to moderate (Grade 1–2). There were no treatment-related serious TEAEs. All TEAEs resolved by the end of the study. Peak exposure (maximal concentration, Cmax) and systemic exposure (area under the curve, AUC0-t, and AUC0-inf) for XVR011 increased dose-proportionally. Geomean half-life ranged from 15.4 to 17.0 days in Phase 1a, while individual half-life ranged from 11.4 to 15.6 days in Phase 1b. SARS-CoV-2 viral load, as detected in nasopharyngeal samples by reverse transcription and quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR), decreased similarly in all cohorts compared to baseline. No treatment-induced anti-drug antibodies (ADA) were detected in Phase 1a. In Phase 1b, higher XVR011 concentrations increased the likelihood of ADA formation, without impacting pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics. No obvious dose-response in COVID-19 clinical status or respiratory parameters was observed.Technological limitations included study size, absence of placebo for the Phase 1b, absence of repeated dosing, evolving SARS-CoV-2 variants and standard-of-care. Conclusions XVR011 displayed a favourable safety, tolerability, pharmacokinetics, and immunogenicity profile, both in healthy volunteers and in patients hospitalized for mild to moderate COVID-19. These data pave the way for the design and clinical development of VHH-Fc constructs.

20.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Machine Learning and the Random Walk Puzzle: Forecasting the CAD/USD Exchange Rate with Expanding Window Evaluation and SHAP Interpretability

arXiv:2606.15058v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: This study examines whether machine learning (ML) models can outperform the naive random walk benchmark in forecasting the monthly USD/CAD exchange rate. Using daily data from the Bank of Canada spanning January 2017 to May 2026, resampled into 113 monthly observations, five ML models are evaluated: linear regression, random forest, gradient boosting, XGBoost, and AdaBoost. These models are benchmarked against the naive random walk model and exponential smoothing with Holt-Winters seasonality (ETS). All models are evaluated using an expanding-window framework to maintain strict out-of-sample integrity, and forecast-accuracy differences are assessed using the Diebold-Mariano (DM) test. Structural break detection identifies four significant breakpoints in the series, corresponding to the escalation of the US-China trade war in 2018, the COVID-19 economic recovery in 2020, the peak of the Bank of Canada rate-hiking cycle in 2022, and the start of the Bank of Canada rate-cutting cycle in 2024. SHAP, or Shapley Additive Explanations, analysis is applied to interpret the drivers of the best-performing ML model. The results show that the naive random walk model remains a formidable benchmark. Linear regression is the only model that statistically outperforms the naive random walk model, with a DM statistic of 3.0585 and a p value of 0.0071, whereas the ML ensemble models show only marginal differences. Random Forest with an expanding-window framework achieves the lowest MAPE of 1.17 percent among all models except the random walk. SHAP analysis confirms that short-term lags, particularly lag1 and lag2, and recent rolling means dominate predictions, consistent with the near-random-walk behavior of exchange rates.

21.
Nature (Science) 2026-06-10

Gen Z scepticism towards AI is a wake-up call — universities must take it seriously

Authors:

The challenge for universities is not adopting artificial intelligence, but doing so in ways that the current generation of students can trust. The challenge for universities is not adopting artificial intelligence, but doing so in ways that the current generation of students can trust.

22.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-19

CoMo: Learning Continuous Latent Motion from Internet Videos for Scalable Robot Learning

Unsupervised learning of latent motion from Internet videos is crucial for robot learning. Existing discrete methods generally mitigate the shortcut learning caused by extracting excessive static backgrounds through vector quantization with a small codebook size. However, they suffer from information loss and struggle to capture more complex and fine-grained dynamics. Moreover, there is an inherent gap between the distribution of discrete latent motion and continuous robot action, which hinders the joint learning of a unified policy. We propose CoMo, which aims to learn more precise continuous latent motion from internet-scale videos. CoMo employs an early temporal difference (Td) mechanism to increase the shortcut learning difficulty and explicitly enhance motion cues. Additionally, to ensure latent motion better captures meaningful foregrounds, we further propose a temporal contrastive learning (Tcl) scheme. Specifically, positive pairs are constructed with a small future frame temporal offset, while negative pairs are formed by directly reversing the temporal direction. The proposed Td and Tcl work synergistically and effectively ensure that the latent motion focuses better on the foreground and reinforces motion cues. Critically, CoMo exhibits strong zeroshot generalization, enabling it to generate effective pseudo action labels for unseen videos. Extensive simulated and real-world experiments show that policies co-trained with CoMo pseudo action labels achieve superior performance with both diffusion and auto-regressive architectures.

23.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-11

The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Discrete-Time Gaussian Process Mixtures for Robot Policy Learning

arXiv:2505.03296v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We present Mixture of Discrete-time Gaussian Processes (MiDiGap), a novel approach for flexible policy representation and imitation learning in robot manipulation. MiDiGap enables learning from as few as five demonstrations using only camera observations and generalizes across a wide range of challenging tasks. It excels at long-horizon behaviors such as making coffee, highly constrained motions such as opening doors, dynamic actions such as scooping with a spatula, and multimodal tasks such as hanging a mug. MiDiGap learns these tasks on a CPU in less than a minute and scales linearly to large datasets. We also develop a rich suite of tools for inference-time steering using evidence such as collision signals and robot kinematic constraints. This steering enables novel generalization capabilities, including obstacle avoidance and cross-embodiment policy transfer. MiDiGap achieves state-of-the-art performance on diverse few-shot manipulation benchmarks. On constrained RLBench tasks, it improves policy success by 76 percentage points and reduces trajectory cost by 67%. On multimodal tasks, it improves policy success by 48 percentage points and increases sample efficiency by a factor of 20. In cross-embodiment transfer, it more than doubles policy success. We make the code publicly available at https://midigap.cs.uni-freiburg.de.

24.
PLOS Computational Biology 2026-06-10

Interpreting higher-order dependence in multimorbidity using cohort data: A partial information decomposition approach

by Cillian Hourican, Geeske Peeters, René J. F. Melis, Almar Kok, Natasja M. van Schoor, Sandra Wezeman, Mike Lees, Marcel G. M. Olde Rikkert, Rick Quax In the context of multimorbidity, clinical features seldom act in isolation: symptoms, signs and behaviours form interdependent systems in which joint effects on function can be demonstrated only when features are considered together. We introduce an open, reusable workflow that detects and interprets these “together-only” interactions using bivariate Partial Information Decomposition (PID; two sources to one target), linking synergy-based dependence to the broader network of clinical variables rather than to a single target. The workflow estimates synergy with small-sample bias correction and summarises each pair in a Breadth–Uniformity–Synergy–Total (BUST) map: breadth of synergy across target variables (broad “generalist” vs narrow “specialist” patterns), cross-stratum uniformity across age, sex and multimorbidity (uniform vs subgroup-specific), synergy strength, and total shared information. Simple diagnostics contrast observed targets with additive expectations, revealing the specific joint configurations through which non-additive effects arise. Applied to data from the Longitudinal Ageing Study Amsterdam, we treated all health-related variables—covering symptoms, clinical signs, behaviours, lifestyle factors, and self-rated health indicators—as both sources and targets in the PID framework. This symmetric design permits synergy to be quantified for every pair of variables with respect to every other variable. The workflow identifies synergistic constellations that additive models miss. Multidomain cliques involving subjective health, pain, cognition and grip strength showed multiple non-additive configurations, whereas pairs such as alcohol use with grip strength exhibited focused, narrow but uniform synergy. Notably, the pairs with the strongest synergistic contributions were largely distinct from those with the highest total mutual information, indicating that synergy captures dependency structure overlooked by conventional association measures. Rather than a new measure, this work provides a bias-aware workflow that makes higher-order dependence visible and transferable. Our results support synergy-aware mapping as a practical complement to conventional multimorbidity analyses: it highlights specific combinations of routinely assessed features whose joint states may be especially informative across multiple health targets and therefore candidates for prioritised joint assessment and future multi-domain intervention studies.

25.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-24

Meet UD_Czech-PDTC: A Large and Genre-Rich Treebank in Universal Dependencies

Czech has been part of Universal Dependencies since its first release in 2015. It has also been one of the best represented languages, with the Prague Dependency Treebank being order of magnitude larger than most other UD treebanks. More recently, three other datasets from the Prague family were added and the annotations thoroughly revisited, forming the "Prague Dependency Treebank-Consolidated" (PDT-C). In comparison to the original PDT, PDT-C is more than twice as large, but it is also much more diverse in terms of genres and domains. In this paper, we describe the conversion of the new resource to Universal Dependencies. While the two annotation schemes are relatively similar at the first sight, there are numerous small differences in topology of the dependency structures and in granularity of the POS and relation type inventories. We demonstrate a selection of such differences on examples, discuss the diverging motivations, as well as ways to overcome the differences during conversion. We argue that while PDT is less "universal" and more tightly bound to one language, its multi-layer annotation is rich and provides all information needed for basic UD trees, and much more.