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01.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-11

UR-BERT: Scaling Text Encoders for Massively Multilingual TTS Through Universal Romanization and Speech Token Prediction

We propose UR-BERT, a Romanized transcription-based text-to-speech (TTS) encoder for massively multilingual TTS systems. Conventional grapheme-to-phoneme (G2P)-based approaches are limited to around 100 languages due to the availability of reliable G2P resources. In contrast, UR-BERT scales to 495 languages by unifying diverse writing systems into a shared Romanization representation. To further enhance phonetic fidelity and text-speech alignment, we introduce a speech token prediction objective during training, which encourages the encoder to learn speech-aware phonetic representations in a data-efficient manner. Experiments show that TTS systems built on UR-BERT consistently outperform recent text encoder baselines across a wide range of languages and resource conditions, and demonstrate strong generalization to unseen languages.

02.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19

Semantic-Anchored Evidential Fusion for Domain-Robust Whole-Slide Survival Analysis

arXiv:2606.19966v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Whole-slide images (WSIs) are widely used for computational cancer prognosis. However, most existing methods primarily focus on in-domain performance and fail to generalize across clinical centers. This limitation stems from their reliance on pixel-derived representations that are highly susceptible to domain-specific artifacts caused by staining protocols and scanner hardware. We hypothesize that high-level pathology semantics, such as tumor grade and micro-environmental architecture, provide a domain-invariant semantic representation that mirrors the robust diagnostic logic of human pathologists. Therefore, we propose a Semantic-Anchored Evidential Fusion Survival (SAEFS) framework, where SAEFS derives semantic anchors from WSIs via Visual Question Answering (VQA), employs a dual-stream WSI evidence extraction architecture, uses Dirichlet-based Subjective Logic to model uncertainty, and fuses semantic and visual evidence through a cautious conjunction rule to avoid overconfident fusion from correlated sources. Trained exclusively on one source domain and evaluated zero-shot across four unseen domains, SAEFS consistently outperforms state-of-the-art models both in prediction accuracy and reliability, improving the average C-index by 10.2%. Quantitative analyses further show that VQA-derived semantic features exhibit significantly lower cross-center divergence than pixel-derived features, highlighting their robustness for cross-center clinical applications.

03.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

Agentic Reinforcement Learning for Search Misaligns Instruction-Tuning

Agentic reinforcement learning (RL) trains large language models to use tools, but its impact on alignment is poorly understood. We study how agentic RL for search affects the alignment of instruction-tuned (IT) models. We find that RL-trained models inherit refusal reasoning by deflecting harmful requests into benign search queries, but this breaks down under a simple diagnostic trigger that elicits a search call before refusal can occur. Under this condition, RL models produce multi-step unsafe search actions and reasoning, reducing search query safety by up to 68.6% in Qwen and Llama models relative to their IT counterparts. The effect generalises across model families, scales, and RL algorithms. To understand why, we identify linear directions in the residual stream that control search query safety, and show that RL training progressively shifts search behaviour toward the harmful end of this direction. We thus propose representation-guided RL training, which adds a reward penalty based on projection toward the harmful search direction. Training on benign data alone, it restores IT-level alignment without reducing task accuracy and requires no additional training data. Together, our work provides the first framework for diagnosing, mechanistically analysing, and mitigating alignment degradation in agentic RL for search.

04.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-19

DiffMath: Symbol- and Graph-Aware Latent Diffusion Transformer for Handwritten Mathematical Expression Generation

Handwritten Mathematical Expression Generation (HMEG) is challenging due to the complex two-dimensional layouts and long-range structural dependencies of mathematical expressions. Existing methods typically rely on explicit spatial supervision, such as symbol-level bounding boxes, which incurs high annotation costs and limits scalability. In this work, we propose DiffMath, a symbol- and graph-aware latent diffusion framework that leverages the hierarchical structure inherent in LaTeX as a structural prior, eliminating the need for positional supervision. First, we design a Relational Abstract Syntax Tree (RelAST), a generation-oriented representation that distills MathML trees into compact triplet sequences [S, R, D], where each token directly encodes a symbol identity, spatial relation, or nesting depth. Second, we introduce MathVAE, which learns structure-preserving latent representations through symbol-aware and relation-aware perceptual regularization, ensuring that the latent space captures both character semantics and spatial topology. Third, MathDiT performs conditional denoising in this structured latent space, further guided by a global symbol-count prior via Adaptive Layer Normalization (AdaLN) to improve structural coherence. Experiments show that DiffMath produces structurally consistent handwritten expressions, achieves superior performance over existing methods, and improves the accuracy of downstream OCR models through synthetic data augmentation.

05.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

Hidden Ghost Hand: Unveiling Backdoor Vulnerabilities in MLLM-Powered Mobile GUI Agents

Graphical user interface (GUI) agents powered by multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have shown greater promise for human-interaction. However, due to the high fine-tuning cost, users often rely on open-source GUI agents or APIs offered by AI providers, which introduces a critical but underexplored supply chain threat: backdoor attacks. In this work, we first unveil that MLLM-powered GUI agents naturally expose multiple interaction-level triggers, such as historical steps, environment states, and task progress. Based on this observation, we introduce AgentGhost, an effective and stealthy framework for red-teaming backdoor attacks. Specifically, we first construct composite triggers by combining goal and interaction levels, allowing GUI agents to unintentionally activate backdoors while ensuring task utility. Then, we formulate backdoor injection as a Min-Max optimization problem that uses supervised contrastive learning to maximize the feature difference across sample classes at the representation space, improving flexibility of the backdoor. Meanwhile, it adopts supervised fine-tuning to minimize the discrepancy between backdoor and clean behavior generation, enhancing effectiveness and utility. Extensive evaluations of various agent models in two established mobile benchmarks show that AgentGhost is effective and generic, with attack accuracy that reaches 99.7\% on three attack objectives, and shows stealthiness with only 1\% utility degradation. Furthermore, we tailor a defense method against AgentGhost that reduces the attack accuracy to 22.1\%. Our code is available at \texttt{anonymous}.

06.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-25

Position Spaces and Graphs

arXiv:2606.25719v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In this paper, we introduce position graphs, a graph-based reasoning framework based on the formalization of position spaces. This framework utilizes two strict partial orders, representing horizontal and vertical alignment and precedence, to model the relative positions of discrete tokens. Unlike general qualitative spatial calculi, position graphs are constrained by a chain condition and compatibility requirements that focus on rows and columns. We provide a comprehensive theoretical analysis of this representation, beginning with a characterization of graph consistency. Conditions to ensure the consistency of position graphs are established. Furthermore, we investigate the computational complexity of structural pattern discovery, modeled as the induced subgraph isomorphism problem. We demonstrate that this problem remains NP-complete even within the restricted class of position graphs. While initially motivated by document processing, this work focuses on the underlying mathematical properties and algebraic consistency of position-based constraints, providing a formal logical layer that is independent of specific data extraction techniques.

07.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-23

Clinical Characteristics and Predictors of Delayed Cerebral Ischemia in High-Altitude Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage

Background and Purpose-Aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) remains a devastating cerebrovascular event, with delayed cerebral ischemia (DCI) representing its most feared complication. High-altitude environments induce profound cerebrovascular adaptations, yet no study has systematically examined aSAH outcomes in chronically hypoxic populations. We characterized clinical features and identified DCI predictors among aSAH patients on the Tibetan Plateau. Methods-This single-center retrospective cohort included 256 consecutive aSAH patients admitted at a tertiary neurosurgical center in Tibet (altitude 2,330-4,920 m) between 2013 and 2015. The primary outcome was DCI per consensus criteria. Multivariable logistic regression identified independent predictors; receiver operating characteristic analysis evaluated model performance. Altitude and hemoglobin were specifically evaluated as altitude-related risk factors. Results-DCI occurred in 26 patients (10.2%). In-hospital mortality was 1.6%. Most patients presented with good-grade aSAH (Hunt-Hess I-II, 73.0%; Fisher I-II, 73.1%). On multivariable analysis, only Fisher grade independently predicted DCI (odds ratio, 3.63 [95% CI, 1.14-11.52]; P=0.029). Neither altitude (P=0.697) nor hemoglobin concentration (P=0.858) was associated with DCI risk. The predictive model achieved an area under the curve of 0.812. At 1-year follow-up, 77.8% achieved favorable functional outcomes (modified Rankin Scale 0-2). Conclusions-Fisher grade is the sole independent predictor of DCI in high-altitude aSAH patients, while chronic hypoxia and compensatory hemoglobin elevation do not significantly modify DCI risk. Established sea-level prognostic frameworks remain valid in high-altitude settings, supporting their continued use for clinical risk stratification. Keywords: aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage; high altitude; delayed cerebral ischemia; Fisher grade; Tibetan Plateau; prognosis

08.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-22

Knowledge, Attitudes, and Practices Regarding Maternal Nutrition Counselling Among Frontline Health Workers in Udupi, Karnataka, India: A Sequential Explanatory Mixed-Methods Study

Background Indias maternal nutrition profile is undergoing a dual-direction shift, with persistent undernutrition coexisting alongside rising overweight and micronutrient deficiencies. Despite national efforts through Integrated Child Development Services (ICDS) and the National Health Mission (NHM), maternal dietary diversity remains suboptimal in India. Frontline health workers (FLWs) play a central role in delivering nutrition counselling; however, gaps remain between knowledge and its translation into practice, highlighting the need to strengthen training, applied competencies, and health system support within primary care settings. Objective To assess knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP) regarding maternal nutrition counselling among FLWs and to explore contextual factors influencing counselling delivery. Methods A sequential explanatory mixed-methods study was conducted in Udupi, Karnataka, India. In phase one, 46 FLWs- Accredited Social Health Activists (ASHA), Community Health Officers (CHO), and Primary Health Care Officers (PHCO) completed a validated Knowledge, Attitudes, and Practices (KAP) questionnaire. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics, Kruskal-Wallis test, Spearman correlation, and exploratory multiple linear regression. In phase two, one focus group discussion with 21 participants was conducted and analysed using reflexive thematic analysis. Results FLWs demonstrated moderate KAP scores (37.50 {+/-} 5.09), with lower scores observed in dietary diversity knowledge and counselling practices. CHOs and PHCOs had significantly higher knowledge (p < 0.001) and practice scores (p = 0.002) compared to ASHAs, while attitudes were similar across cadres. Knowledge was positively associated with practice ({rho} = 0.389, p = 0.008). Exploratory regression indicated that cadre and knowledge were associated with practice, while attitude was not statistically significant. Qualitative findings suggested that counselling was largely protocol-based and constrained by workload, limited counselling tools, economic barriers, and cultural food practices. Conclusion Despite positive attitudes towards maternal nutrition counselling, frontline health workers demonstrated gaps in knowledge and counselling practices. Mixed-methods findings suggest that counselling delivery is shaped by both provider competencies and health-system constraints, highlighting the need for implementation-focused strategies to strengthen maternal nutrition counselling in routine antenatal care.

09.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-11

Consensus on Dynamic Stochastic Block Models: Fast Convergence and Phase Transitions

arXiv:2209.03999v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We introduce two models of consensus following a majority rule on time-evolving stochastic block models (SBM), in which the network evolution is Markovian or non-Markovian. Under the majority rule, in each round, each agent simultaneously updates their opinion according to the majority of their neighbors. Our network has a community structure and randomly evolves with time. In contrast to the classic setting, the dynamics is not purely deterministic, and reflects the structure of SBM by resampling the connections at each step, making agents with the same opinion more likely to connect than those with different opinions. In the Markovian model, connections between agents are resampled at each step according to the SBM law and each agent updates their opinion via the majority rule. We prove a power-of-one type result, i.e., any initial bias leads to a non-trivial advantage of winning in the end, uniformly in the size of the network. In the non-Markovian model, a connection between two agents is resampled according to the SBM law only when at least one of them changes opinion and is otherwise kept the same. We identify the phase-transition threshold, up to the second-order leading term, between halting and fast convergence to consensus. We also give sufficient initial-lead conditions for consensus to occur within one, two, or three rounds.

10.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-25

The Inference-Compute Frontier and a Latency-Efficient Architecture for Limit Order Book Prediction

arXiv:2606.25986v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We study whether a scaling-law-style inference-compute frontier appears in limit order book prediction. Using FI-2010 and a suite of models ranging from small decision trees to neural LOB architectures, we find that the realized empirical frontier of predictive loss versus structural forward work is well summarized by a power law. In particular, with MLPLOB held out as an architecture family, a power-law fit to the low- and mid-compute non-MLPLOB frontier extrapolates across multiple orders of magnitude and attains $R^2=0.941$ on the excluded high-compute MLPLOB target frontier. A similar exercise in latency space gives substantially weaker results, showing that latency is not merely noisy compute. We use this gap to motivate FastBiNLOB, a dense axis-separable LOB mixer built from hardware-friendly temporal and feature mixing operations. In a five-seed experiment, FastBiNLOB exceeds the published $y_{10}$ and $y_{100}$ macro-F1 targets at notably lower latency than existing published SOTA architectures.

11.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

Cloze: An Open Research Platform for Studying Human-AI Conversations in Mental Health Contexts

Cloze is an open-source web platform for conducting controlled, monitored studies of human-AI conversation in mental health research contexts. Consumer large language model (LLM) products such as ChatGPT, Claude, and Gemini are built for individual productivity, and offer researchers little experimental control, inconsistent data export, and no shared safety scaffolding that holds across providers. Cloze gives research teams a single environment in which they configure which models participants converse with, how the AI is instructed, how conversations are scheduled over time, and which safety constraints apply unconditionally, while every message is captured with full provenance (model version, prompt configuration, timing). The platform currently supports OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and locally hosted open-weight models served through Ollama behind a unified interface, and runs in the cloud or fully on premises so that participant data need never leave an institution. Cloze is research infrastructure for building an evidence base on human-AI interaction in mental health contexts. It is not a therapeutic product.

12.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-22

REPRODUCIBILITY OF 7T MRI MEASUREMENTS OF THE SUSCEPTIBILITY AND VOLUME OF HIPPOCAMPAL SUBFIELDS

PURPOSE: The UK7T travelling head dataset was used to characterise the reproducibility of 7T measurements of the susceptibility of the hippocampal subfields, focusing on the Cornu Ammonis (CA1, CA2 and CA3), dentate gyrus (DG), subiculum (SUB), tail of the hippocampus (TAIL) and entorhinal cortex (ERC). METHODS: Susceptibility maps were created from whole-brain 3D single-echo GRE data (TE=20 ms; 0.7 mm isotropic resolution) using Multi-Scale Dipole Inversion. Automatic Segmentation of Hippocampal Subfields (ASHS) was applied to high resolution T1- and T2-weighted images for segmentation. The mean magnetic susceptibility and volume of hippocampal subfields was evaluated in 50 data sets, comprising 5 repeat acquisitions on 10 healthy participants (age 32 + or -6 years; 3 female). RESULTS: Averaging over subjects, susceptibility values spanned an 18ppb range over the hippocampus (ranging from -13.3ppb in DG to 4.7ppb in ERC). Susceptibility values in the larger hippocampal subfields showed a consistent pattern of variation across subjects, being generally more positive in ERC and SUB than in CA1 and more positive in CA1 than in DG and TAIL. The standard deviation of subfield susceptibilities over subjects ranged from 8.2ppb in the TAIL to 1.7ppb in CA1, and the average standard deviation across repeated measurements, which ranges from 1.7 to 4 ppb, was less than half of the inter-participant standard deviation in all subfields. Susceptibility values in the smaller subfields (CA2 and CA3) were more variable, but ICC(2,k) values for all subfields were >0.82. CONCLUSION: The reported data characterises the variation and reproducibility of hippocampal subfield susceptibility measurements at 7T.

13.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-17

HLS-GPT: A Generative Pretrained Transformer (GPT) for Continental-Scale NASA Harmonized Landsat and Sentinel-2 (HLS) Reflectance Reconstruction Across All Bands on Arbitrary Dates

Recent deep learning methods for Landsat and Sentinel-2 reflectance time series reconstruction remain limited by restricted spectral coverage, limited geographic scalability, or patch-based designs with short temporal contexts. We present HLS-GPT, a large-scale generative pretrained Transformer model for reconstructing NASA Harmonized Landsat Sentinel-2 30 m surface reflectance for all bands, any date, and any pixel location. HLS-GPT uses a hierarchical Transformer architecture to handle the different spectral band configurations of Landsat and Sentinel-2 and operates on single-pixel 12-month time series. To capture geographic and seasonal variability, the model was trained with nine years of HLS time series from more than 0.25 million training pixels across the conterminous United States. A random cropping and masking strategy extracts 12-month periods with varying start dates across epochs, masks 50% of valid observations, and trains the model to reconstruct the masked reflectance values from the remaining observations. Evaluation using more than 62,000 independent test pixels shows robust reconstruction under diverse land surface conditions, including complex crop phenology and sparse, irregular observations. Leave-one-observation-out evaluation achieved reconstruction RMSE below 0.026 for all HLS spectral bands, with relative RMSE below 35% for visible bands and below 13% for other bands. Red-edge band errors were comparable to red and near-infrared errors despite the absence of red-edge bands on Landsat. Sensitivity analyses that randomly masked 10% to 90% of test observations showed only modest degradation when 10% to 50% of observations were masked, with all-band RMSE below 0.028. Image reconstruction over nine independent 109 by 109 km CONUS HLS tiles further demonstrates that HLS-GPT outperforms two conventional methods and the NASA-IBM Prithvi model.

14.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-17

Adaptive Activation Steering for Efficient LLM Reasoning via Closed-Loop PID Control

Reasoning LLMs trained with long chain-of-thought often overthink: they spend tokens on redundant reflection and transitions that inflate cost without improving accuracy. Static activation steering (e.g.\ SEAL) suppresses such content with a fixed vector, but applies the same strength regardless of how redundant the current chunk actually is. We describe PID-steering, a training-free, decoding-time method that modulates the steering strength with a PID controller driven by a lightweight chunk-level redundancy classifier. On a subset of GSM8K with DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Qwen-1.5B, the method improves accuracy from 85.7\% to 89.6\% (+3.9 pp) while cutting average output length from 1026 to 790 tokens ($-$23\%). We report it as a small-scale proof of concept rather than a benchmark result.

15.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

Multi-Modal Agents for Power Distribution Defect Detection: An Evaluation of Foundation Models

Authors:

arXiv:2606.12969v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The power distribution network is critical to reliable electricity delivery, yet traditional inspection methods face limitations in semantic understanding, generalization, and closed-loop automation. To address these challenges, this paper proposes a Multi-Modal Agent framework specifically for power distribution defect detection. Central to this study is the systematic evaluation of multimodal foundation models as unified cognitive engines. We rigorously assess their integrated performance across three critical capabilities: (1) Perception, where the model must accurately identify equipment and generate expert-level descriptions of defects; (2) Reasoning, where the model interprets visual findings to diagnose causes, assess severity, and plan maintenance strategies based on domain knowledge; and (3) Tool Usage, where the model acts as an autonomous operator to execute actions – such as querying knowledge bases or generating work orders – to achieve closed-loop maintenance. To support this evaluation, a domain-specific evaluation dataset and a comprehensive benchmark are developed. Experimental results demonstrate the strengths and limitations of current foundation models in these three dimensions, providing empirical evidence for deploying autonomous agents in high-stakes industrial environments.

16.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Efficient Reinforcement Learning by Guiding World Models with Non-Curated Data

arXiv:2502.19544v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Leveraging offline data is a promising way to improve the sample efficiency of online reinforcement learning (RL). This paper expands the pool of usable data for offline-to-online RL by leveraging abundant non-curated data that is reward-free, of mixed quality, and collected across multiple embodiments. Although learning a world model appears promising for utilizing such data, we find that naive fine-tuning fails to accelerate RL training on many tasks. Through careful investigation, we attribute this failure to the distributional shift between offline and online data during fine-tuning. To address this issue and effectively use the offline data, we propose two techniques: i) experience rehearsal and ii) execution guidance. With these modifications, the non-curated offline data substantially improves RL's sample efficiency. Under limited sample budgets, our method achieves nearly twice the aggregate score of learning-from-scratch baselines across 72 visuomotor tasks spanning 6 embodiments. On challenging tasks such as locomotion and robotic manipulation, it outperforms prior methods that utilize offline data by a decent margin.

17.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-25

Reliability-Asymmetric Spacecraft Autonomy: Co-Designing a Capable Learned GNC Stack with a Verified, Adaptation-Aware Runtime Shield

arXiv:2606.25366v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Deep-space missions need onboard autonomy that is both capable and certifiable. Rule-based autonomy is certifiable but brittle, while learned autonomy is capable but hard to verify. We present AMPLE-GNC, a three-tier guidance, navigation, and control stack. Its capability path combines a small foundation-model commander that maps natural language to PDDL+, a constraint-screening verifier, and a fault-adaptive controller. All three are bounded by a runtime shield with nine linear-temporal-logic invariants whose predictor soundness is machine-checked by the Kind 2 model checker. On a 6-DOF Basilisk testbed, we make three contributions. First, we deploy an edge commander. Fine-tuning a pretrained 360M model with grammar-constrained decoding gives a hard output-validity guarantee and 84% planner-executable actions. On a de-leaked test, novel-phrasing generalization is 38% exact and 51% action, rising to 48% exact after phrasing-diversity re-finetuning; we separate syntactic validity from semantic accuracy. Second, we introduce a fault-adaptive controller. Rapid Motor Adaptation infers latent actuator faults online and recovers 97.8% of actuator-sign faults and 94.4% of continuous-gain faults within the training randomization envelope. Fault-unaware PD and from-scratch end-to-end RL both score 0%, while the strongest classical-adaptive baseline reaches 55% on continuous gain. Beyond the envelope, a split-conformant retrain scores 57-67%, and adding 4x more in-regime data worsens performance, showing that randomization breadth, not data volume, drives generalization. Robustness is flat under star-tracker noise to 0.005. Third, we show that a latching safe-hold shield can suppress even a capable controller. A split-conformal recovery-deadline certificate with adaptation-aware engagement reconciles safety and recovery, keeping the controller 94.5% autonomous while still catching non-recovery.

18.
PLOS Medicine 2026-06-02

Prognostic value of cervical length for spontaneous preterm birth in asymptomatic women with singleton pregnancy: An individual participant data meta-analysis

Authors:

by Kelly Hughes, David Nguyen, Mason Aberoumand, Heather Ford, Erin Clarke, Nuria Banos Lopez, Margaret Dziadosz, Richard Fischer, Renato T. Souza, Jose Guilherme Cecatti, Kelly Orzechowski, Courtney Olson-Chen, Alberto Borges Peixoto, Vorapong Phupong, Joshua Rosenbloom, Moeun Son, Athena Souka, Liu Du, Michael Sean Esplin, Roberta Granese, Simi Gupta, Brenda Kazemier, Lindsay Kindinger, Pihla Kuusela, Jeanine Van der Ven, Omer Weitzner, Evelyn Minis, Alba Farras Llobet, Heather Frey, Rashmi Bagga, Siddhidatri Mishra, Elizabeth Patberg, Philip Bennett, Megan Hall, Andrew Shennan, Shaun Brennecke, Shakila Thangaratinam, Anna Lene Seidler, Ben Willem Mol, Rui Wang Background Spontaneous preterm birth (SPTB) is the leading cause of perinatal and early childhood mortality worldwide. Studies have generally suggested that mid-trimester transvaginal sonographic cervical length

19.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-24

Uncertainty-Aware Longitudinal Forecasting of Alzheimer's Disease Progression Using Deep Learning

arXiv:2606.24604v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Longitudinal modelling of Alzheimer's disease progression is clinically useful only if it can describe not just the most likely next diagnosis, but how a patient may evolve over time and how reliable that forecast is. Most deep learning approaches reduce this problem to single-step classification, treating cognitively normal, mild cognitive impairment, and dementia as flat categories while providing limited insight into how uncertainty accumulates across future visits. We propose a probabilistic framework that combines ordinal diagnosis prediction, multi-horizon trajectory generation, and decomposed uncertainty estimation. A Temporal Fusion Transformer encoder is adapted with a CORAL ordinal output layer, asymmetric loss weighting, and converter oversampling to respect disease-stage ordering and improve sensitivity to MCI-to-dementia transitions. Conditioned on the learned patient-context representation, an autoregressive Mixture Density Network generates five-year probabilistic trajectories for diagnosis state, CDR Sum of Boxes, MMSE orientation, and hippocampal volume. On ADNI, the model outperforms linear, recurrent, and transformer baselines for next-visit diagnosis prediction, with the strongest gains on MCI-versus-dementia discrimination. Generated trajectories achieve near-nominal 90% credible interval coverage, widening uncertainty across the forecast horizon, and biomarker dynamics consistent with expected Alzheimer's disease progression. We further separate aleatoric from epistemic uncertainty using analytic mixture variance and a five-member bootstrap ensemble, which provides the strongest encoder diversity and output-level epistemic signal. Epistemic uncertainty is higher for rare progression archetypes, MCI and dementia patients, and under external evaluation on OASIS-3, where it increases alongside prediction error.

20.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-17

Rethinking Multimodal Fusion for Time Series: Text Modalities Need Constrained Fusion

arXiv:2603.22372v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Recent advances in multimodal learning have motivated the integration of auxiliary modalities such as text or vision into time series (TS) forecasting. However, most existing methods provide limited gains, often improving performance only in specific datasets or relying on architecture-specific designs that limit generalization. In this paper, we show that multimodal models with naive fusion strategies (e.g., simple addition or concatenation) often underperform unimodal TS models, which we attribute to the uncontrolled integration of auxiliary modalities which may introduce irrelevant information. Motivated by this observation, we explore various constrained fusion methods designed to control such integration and find that they consistently outperform naive fusion methods. Furthermore, we propose Controlled Fusion Adapter (CFA), a simple plug-in method that enables controlled cross-modal interactions without modifying the TS backbone, integrating only relevant textual information aligned with TS dynamics. CFA employs low rank adapters to filter irrelevant textual information before fusing it into temporal representations. We conduct over 20K experiments across various datasets and TS/text models, demonstrating the effectiveness of the constrained fusion methods. Code is available at: https://github.com/seunghan96/cfa.

21.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-12

On the Reliability of Cue Conflict and Beyond

Understanding how neural networks rely on visual cues offers a human-interpretable view of their internal decision processes. The cue-conflict benchmark has been influential in probing shape-texture preference and in motivating the insight that stronger, human-like shape bias is often associated with improved in-domain performance. However, we find that the current stylization-based instantiation can yield unstable and ambiguous bias estimates. Specifically, stylization may not reliably instantiate perceptually valid and separable cues nor control their relative informativeness, ratio-based bias can obscure absolute cue sensitivity, and restricting evaluation to preselected classes can distort model predictions by ignoring the full decision space. Together, these factors can confound preference with cue validity, cue balance, and recognizability artifacts. We introduce REFINED-BIAS, an integrated dataset and evaluation framework for reliable and interpretable shape-texture bias diagnosis. REFINED-BIAS constructs balanced, human- and model- recognizable cue pairs using explicit definitions of shape and texture, and measures cue-specific sensitivity over the full label space via a ranking-based metric, enabling fairer cross-model comparisons. Across diverse training regimes and architectures, REFINED-BIAS enables fairer cross-model comparison, more faithful diagnosis of shape and texture biases, and clearer empirical conclusions, resolving inconsistencies that prior cue-conflict evaluations could not reliably disambiguate.

22.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-18

TS-Fault: Benchmarking Time Series Forecasters Against Structural Faults

arXiv:2606.18539v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Time series forecasting (TSF) underpins consequential decisions in energy, transportation, finance, and healthcare, yet TSF models are almost universally ranked by a single number (e.g., average error) on clean held-out data, under the implicit assumption that it predicts deployed reliability. However, real faults are not i.i.d noise but structured events with temporal shape, broken cross-variable dependencies, regime change coupled with missingness, and causal propagation across a sensing pipeline. Treating TSF robustness as a data-quality problem, we present TS-Fault, a benchmark that evaluates forecasting models under explicit, parameterized fault scenarios with controllable semantic difficulty. TS-Fault organizes recurring failures into four modes along two orthogonal axes (observation- vs mechanism-level; univariate vs multivariate) and injects each fault into the most prediction-critical window via a unified importance score. This design enables robustness to be tested against the structures models actually rely on, rather than reduced to generic noise sensitivity. We evaluate 21 models across 6 datasets, 4 modes, and 5 difficulty levels under a paired clean/corrupt protocol. The results reveal three findings that contradict common leaderboard intuition: (i) clean-data accuracy anti-correlates with robustness; (ii) clean rankings are preserved under observation-level faults but reshuffled under mechanism-level faults; and (iii) all catastrophic failures occur under mechanism-level faults, with foundation models achieving the highest clean-data accuracy yet exhibiting the greatest fragility. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/Ray-zyy/TS-Fault.

23.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-15

Evidence-Gated LLM Priors for Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization

arXiv:2606.01730v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used as heuristic advisors for black-box optimization, yet their suggestions and self-reported confidence are not necessarily calibrated to downstream objective values. This issue becomes more pronounced in multi-objective Bayesian optimization, where different objectives may require different expert knowledge and where an LLM expert can be useful for one objective but misleading for another. We study how to use LLM-generated expert priors in discrete multi-objective Bayesian optimization without blindly trusting them. We propose an objective-wise reputation-market mechanism that treats each expert-objective pair as a falsifiable prior source. Expert weights are updated online from observed objective feedback, discounted over time, and gated by market-level trust. We then introduce a decoupled counterfactual gate that can use the LLM prior without confidence, use it with confidence, or abstain from the LLM prior entirely. Across controlled synthetic stress tests and three molecule optimization benchmarks with \qwenflash{}-generated expert priors, we find that dynamic objective-wise calibration improves robustness over fixed LLM priors. However, raw LLM confidence is not reliably beneficial: on ESOL, confidence is positively correlated with prediction error; on FreeSolv, confidence can help; and on Lipophilicity, ignoring confidence remains strongest. Our fixed three-arm counterfactual gate improves over the first counterfactual variant on ESOL and FreeSolv, while an attempted margin portfolio exposes a useful negative result: margin selection should be acquisition-aware rather than based only on one-step prior error.

24.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

Knowledge-Based Zero-Replay Debugging of Multi-Agent LLM Traces

arXiv:2606.14805v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Reliable operation of multi-agent large language model (LLM) systems depends on debugging long execution traces, where the few causally decisive events are buried in unstructured logs of messages, routes, memory writes, and tool calls. The standard tool is counterfactual replay (rewind, edit, and re-run the trajectory to measure each event's effect), but its cost grows linearly with the number of candidate events, making exhaustive replay infeasible at scale. We frame trace debugging as a knowledge-based decision-support problem. Each trace is compiled into a structured event knowledge graph over routing, memory, tool-use, uncertainty, and latent evidence, and a calibrated predictor decides where a scarce replay budget should be spent. We do not propose a new replay oracle; we propose a method to predict its results without paying the replay cost. We formulate zero-replay counterfactual-effect prediction: given a trace under a fixed budget, predict which events the oracle would mark high-effect before any replay is performed. BranchPoint-Latent is a lightweight predictor over observable, structural, uncertainty, and latent features of the knowledge graph. Calibrated against a deterministic replay oracle across 37 trace families, a single learning-to-rank gradient-boosted predictor raises per-trace localization (Branch Recall@5) from 0.73 to 0.93 on held-out families at zero oracle-replay cost. Rather than claiming universal dominance, we characterize when cheap graph centrality suffices and when learned evidence is necessary. The result is an auditable, cost-efficient decision-support system for AI-reliability debugging, positioned explicitly on the cost-accuracy frontier with reproducible artifacts.

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arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

Calibrated Triage, Not Autonomy: Confidence Estimation for Medical Vision-Language Models

A vision-language model can answer a question about a medical image fluently and confidently while barely using the image, leaning instead on language priors. In medicine this is the failure that matters most, because the answer looks trustworthy and is not, and the only protection is a confidence score reliable enough to tell the system when to abstain. We ask a deployment question rather than an accuracy one: how much imaging work a model can safely handle alone, and which confidence signal makes that possible. We evaluate seven confidence estimators across five open-weight LVLMs and three medical visual-question-answering datasets spanning broad clinical imaging, radiology, and pathology, with every probe trained only on natural images and applied without adaptation. Recast as bounded selective prediction (automate a case only when confidence clears a threshold, defer the rest), the comparison is cautionary. The standard metrics are poor guides: discrimination barely separates the methods, and the weak calibration of a cheap self-report is cheaply removed by off-domain temperature scaling without changing deployable yield. What distinguishes a usable estimator is the high-confidence region a clinician acts on: the weakest baselines are confidently wrong on 41 to 45 percent of their errors against 1 to 4 percent for the best probe, and no estimator is reliably best across domains or models. Safe handoff is governed at two levels: base-model competence sets a ceiling, so a well-calibrated score recovers roughly a third of radiology cases at a 20 percent error tolerance but almost none of pathology; the confidence layer then decides how much of that ceiling is reachable. The usable role today is calibrated triage, not autonomy: automate the cases a calibrated score marks safe, route the rest to a clinician. We release all outputs, correctness judgments, and confidence scores, with code.