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01.
bioRxiv (Bioinfo) 2026-06-17

MetaHarmonizer: robust biomedical metadata harmonization and a contamination control for inflated LLM performance on public benchmarks

Public biomedical repositories hold substantial reuse potential, but inconsistent metadata routinely blocks integration across studies. Recent LLM-based harmonization approaches address scale but suffer from non-determinism, hallucinated ontology terms, and, in their highest-accuracy configurations, dependence on proprietary APIs or labeled fine-tuning data. A more fundamental concern is that LLM accuracies on widely-used public benchmarks may substantially inflate transferable capability: under a contamination-controlled evaluation protocol we developed, the apparent LLM-only advantage on the GDC schema-mapping benchmark is inverted, and three out of five LLMs recover 80 -100% of GDC identifiers from zero-schema context, suggesting direct memorization. Building on this insight, we present MetaHarmonizer, an automated metadata harmonization system designed to be robust by construction: SchemaMapper aligns attribute names across schemas, and OntologyMapper standardizes values to controlled vocabularies. Both modules implement a multi-stage cascade that escalates to more resource-intensive methods only when earlier stages fall short, with all candidates grounded in pre-defined controlled vocabularies to preclude hallucinated outputs and LLMs used only as bounded preprocessing components rather than inference-time dependencies. On the GDC schema-matching benchmark, SchemaMapper with the deployment-optimized LLM-generated alias dictionary achieved 71.6% Top-1 accuracy and the higher Recall@GT than Magneto bipartite variants, recovering significantly more ground-truth mappings; with the best performing alias dictionary, it reached the highest Top-1/Top-5/Recall@GT, and also matched the best Magneto reranker (fine-tuned LLM-reranker) on MRR; and it also outperforms LLM-only performance under contamination-controlled conditions. On four EFO benchmarks, OntologyMapper achieved 77.9 - 95.5% Top-1 accuracy, outperforming text2term by up to 16.4 pp and direct LLM inference (against the smaller corpus) by 19.2 pp because memorization is not a viable shortcut for this task. Across both modules, calibrated confidence scores separate correct from incorrect predictions (AUC 0.73 - 0.94), enabling principled human-in-the-loop triage. Inference is fully local, deterministic, and computationally efficient - seconds on schema mapping and under a minute for ontology mapping of up to ~7,000 terms against the pre-indexed 33,230-term corpus. Released as a Python package with a domain-agnostic architecture, MetaHarmonizer provides a scalable foundation for improving the FAIRness of biomedical data and enabling cross-study integration, alongside an evaluation methodology applicable to any LLM-augmented bioinformatics benchmark built on public benchmarks.

02.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

Creative Collision: Directorial Persona Steering and Competition in Large Language Models

Activation steering has emerged as a powerful tool for shaping the behaviour of large language models at inference time, yet most prior work injects a single semantic direction into the residual stream. We study the richer setting in which two semantically opposing steering vectors are superimposed – a regime we call Creative Collision. Concretely, we construct directorial persona vectors for Steven Spielberg (optimistic, redemptive moral valence) and Martin Scorsese (dark, morally ambiguous) via mean-difference activation contrast on curated screenplay-derived corpora, then interpolate between them with a scalar mixing parameter $\alpha \in [0,1]$ and a steering coefficient $\lambda$. Across five evaluation axes – moral valence, generation coherence, surface style, directional dominance, and vector geometry – three principal findings emerge: (i)~Spielberg's representational signature exhibits robust directional dominance, suppressing Scorsese's moral influence across almost the entire interpolation range; (ii)~intermediate collision points paradoxically improve generation coherence relative to pure single-director steering at high $\lambda$; and (iii)~both personas localise maximally to layer~28 of a 40-layer decoder-only transformer, revealing a shared moral-tone substrate. These results illuminate the geometry of competing semantic directions in transformer residual streams and have direct implications for controllable creative generation and value-aligned narrative synthesis.

03.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

NVMOS: Non-Verbal Vocalization Quality Assessment in Speech

arXiv:2606.15888v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Non-verbal vocalizations (NVs), such as laughter, sighs, and coughs, are important acoustic cues for emotion and intent. Existing speech quality assessment methods typically focus on overall naturalness, while non-verbal TTS evaluations mainly examine whether a target NV appears with the correct type and position. However, the perceptual quality of NV events themselves remains underexplored. To address this gap, we construct an NV-MOS dataset containing outputs from multiple NV-TTS systems and naturally occurring NV samples, with ratings collected from three acoustic experts on a perceptual quality scale. We further analyze audio-capable multimodal large language models such as Gemini and find clear inconsistencies between their scores and expert ratings. These results suggest that general-purpose multimodal models cannot reliably replace human judgments for NV quality assessment. We then propose NVMOS, to our knowledge the first model that can reliably predict the perceptual quality of NV events in speech. Experimental results show that, with a local NV-event focusing module, NVMOS reaches expert-level or stronger agreement with human MOS.

04.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-15

Scaling native entanglement generation in layered semiconductors with quasi-phase matching

arXiv:2606.14553v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Efficient generation of entangled photons typically relies on spontaneous parametric down-conversion (SPDC) in phase-matched macroscopic nonlinear media. However, generating entanglement under phase-matching constraints requires additional bulk optics or interferometers. In contrast, ultrathin van der Waals semiconductors - such as transition metal dichalcogenides (TMDs) - exhibit strong enough optical nonlinearities for SPDC to be observed from subwavelength-thick media, thereby bypassing conventional phase-matching constraints. In this microscopic domain, the intrinsic crystal symmetry governs the nonlinear optical response, enabling the native generation of polarization-entangled photon pairs. However, generating these states efficiently has been fundamentally restricted by the material's coherence length ($L_c$), which limits the attainable conversion efficiency. Here, we investigate periodically-poled TMDs (PPTMDs) designed to scale up this interaction via quasi-phase matching. We demonstrate that mechanically flipping the sign of the nonlinearity at precise intervals of $L_c$ introduces quasi-phase matching, that scales the pair-production rate while preserving the pristine, symmetry-generated polarization entanglement, with fidelities exceeding 99%. Backed by a rigorous theoretical model, our work clarifies the interplay between crystal symmetry and propagation effects in thin nonlinear media, providing a new avenue for engineering quantum light in nanophotonic systems.

05.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-17

Fast Nonparametric Conditional Independence Testing via Two-Stage Regression

arXiv:2606.18011v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Constraint-based causal discovery relies on repeated conditional independence tests, but fast nonparametric tests often sacrifice calibration, especially when variables depend on the conditioning set through nonlinear relationships. We introduce BLITZ (Broad-to-Local Independence Testing via residualiZation), a nonparametric conditional independence test designed to run well under a second while maintaining the accuracy needed for the thousands of queries performed by constraint-based causal discovery algorithms. BLITZ first removes broad smooth dependence on the conditioning set using low-order polynomial regression, then applies a small nonlinear feature map and residualizes those features with shallow tree regressions. The resulting statistic tests residual cross-covariance, with a moment-matched chi-square approximation to the null distribution. We show theoretically that the two-stage design reduces the effective complexity faced by the tree residualizers, allowing shallow trees to control residual conditional-mean bias while avoiding excessive overfitting. In simulations, BLITZ provides better null calibration than fast kernel, random-feature, and regression-based competitors while remaining among the fastest methods tested. In causal discovery experiments on synthetic graphs and flow-cytometry data, BLITZ yields more reliable endpoint orientations among retained adjacencies and competitive structural recovery. These results suggest that broad-to-local residualization is a practical route to calibrated, scalable nonparametric conditional independence testing for causal discovery.

06.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-17

An energy-based uncertainty principle and low-energy state preparation

Authors:

arXiv:2603.15495v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Preparing low-energy states of many-body Hamiltonians is a central challenge in quantum computing, quantum complexity, and condensed matter physics. Existing approaches often get trapped in suboptimal states such as high-energy eigenstates or, more generally, low-variance states that resist further energy reduction. In this work, we explore a different perspective: instead of optimizing with respect to a single Hamiltonian, we leverage the fact that many systems admit families of Hamiltonians that share similar low-energy subspaces but differ at higher energies. We show that this redundancy can be turned into an algorithmic resource by establishing an energy-based uncertainty principle, which implies that these Hamiltonians cannot simultaneously admit low-variance states at higher energies. This suggests a simple strategy of alternating energy-lowering steps across such Hamiltonians, which we investigate numerically on several models. We also introduce a sparse variant where the uncertainty principle yields quadratically larger variance at higher energies, leading to more pronounced energy change. Overall, this work suggests a range of open questions at the interface of random matrix theory, local Hamiltonians and low-energy state preparation, aimed at understanding when such approaches are practical and how they can be analyzed rigorously.

07.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

KGEdit: Ambiguity-Aware Knowledge Graphs for Training-Free Precise Video Generation and Editing

In recent years, training-free video generation has progressed remarkably. However, when handling complex textual instructions, existing methods still suffer from semantic ambiguity, incorrect concept binding, and cross-frame inconsistency. To address these issues, we propose KGEdit, a structured semantic control framework for text-to-video (T2V) diffusion models. Specifically, we first construct an ambiguity-aware knowledge graph (AAKG) to disentangle and disambiguate the input prompt, converting it into four types of structured semantics: identity, relation, attribute, and negative constraints. We then design a structured semantic injection module (SSIM) to inject these semantic signals into key layers of the diffusion Transformer, enabling fine-grained semantic control. In addition, we introduce a temporal-aware semantic control (TASC) module that dynamically schedules semantic objectives according to the stage-wise characteristics of the denoising process, further improving semantic alignment and temporal consistency. Experiments show that KGEdit outperforms existing methods in editing precision and temporal stability, while offering higher efficiency and controllability in text-driven interaction scenarios.

08.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-12

Influcoder: Distilling Decoders' Gradient Influence Rankings into an Encoder for Data Attribution

With the growth of LLMs' (Large Language Models) capabilities, there has been an increasing push to curate high quality datasets by filtering samples in the training data. In general, Data Attribution (DA) methods aim to estimate how individual samples in a training dataset can precondition a model to generate certain outputs. As an example, one might be interested in which samples in the data could be the source of toxic behavior after training the LLM. Many methods quantify this conditioning through the paradigm of influence functions. While methods of this family are effective in its function, they lack the necessary processing speed and storage compactness to be practically implemented on large datasets. We propose a method, Influcoder, as a quick and cost-effective approach to influence-based Data Attribution at scale.

09.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-24

Picosecond Schrödinger cat states for ultrafast optical quantum processing

arXiv:2606.24002v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Non-Gaussian states are essential resources for universal, fault-tolerant optical quantum computing, but their generation rate remains limited by low heralding probabilities and operation in nanosecond temporal modes. Here, we demonstrate multi-photon generalized photon subtraction in picosecond optical wave packets, establishing the state-generation capability required for high-rate operation by addressing the temporal-mode bottleneck that has constrained the achievable rate. Two interfering ultrashort squeezed vacua are heralded by photon-number-resolving detection with a high-speed transition-edge sensor and characterized by pulsed homodyne detection matched to 10-ps temporal modes at a 5-MHz pump repetition rate. We reconstruct Wigner functions without loss correction that exhibit up to four distinct negative regions for four-photon heralding, together with an effective cat-state amplitude of $\alpha_{\mathrm{eff}} = 1.69$. This amplitude approaches the range of practical relevance for fault-tolerant cat-code architectures and for adaptive breeding toward logical-qubit generation, while the picosecond temporal mode establishes a platform compatible with high-rate, scalable time-multiplexed photonic architectures.

10.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-12

When Does Mixing Help? Analyzing Query Embedding Interpolation in Multilingual Dense Retrieval

While mixed-language querying is ubiquitous in multilingual communities, the sensitivity of dense retrievers to such queries remains poorly understood. We present a ratio-controlled study on mMARCO that systematically evaluates retrieval performance by varying the mixing proportion of parallel query translations via embedding-level mixing – constructing mixed queries as an interpolation of monolingual embeddings. Experiments with BGE-M3 demonstrate that an optimal mixing ratio outperforms the best monolingual endpoint in 88/105 cases. We uncover a distinct asymmetry driven by English dominance: mixing is uniformly beneficial when retrieving from non-English document indices, whereas indices containing English are best served by pure English queries. Furthermore, English acts as the strongest mixing partner for every non-English document language. Finally, when controlling for English dominance, mixing gains correlate negatively with typological distance. We conclude that language-mix sensitivity is structured and predictable, and we validate the robustness of these patterns across model families and scales.

11.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-11

The Language You Ask In: Language-Conditioned Ideological Divergence in LLM Analysis of Contested Political Documents

Authors:

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed as analytical tools across multilingual contexts, yet their outputs may carry systematic biases conditioned by the language of the prompt. This study presents an experimental comparison of LLM-generated political analyses of a Ukrainian civil society document, using semantically equivalent prompts in Russian and Ukrainian administered to two frontier models from different developers, ChatGPT 5.2 and Claude Opus 4.5. Despite identical source material and parallel query structures, both models diverged along the same axis: Russian-language outputs leaned toward delegitimizing framings, characterizing civil society actors as externally funded elites constraining a democratic mandate, while Ukrainian-language outputs treated the same actors as legitimate stakeholders in democratic contestation. The magnitude of this divergence, however, was model-dependent. ChatGPT's Russian output reproduced vocabulary characteristic of Russian state discourse; Claude Opus's stayed in a mainstream critical idiom and hedged its judgments in both languages. These findings demonstrate that prompt language alone can systematically shift the ideological orientation of an unchanged model analyzing identical content. The shift is a general property of multilingual LLMs whose severity, and whose alignment with propaganda narratives, varies across systems. The implications reach AI deployment in polarized information environments, cross-lingual research, and AI governance in multilingual societies.

12.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-24

Computational references are not experiments: pre-registered validation of machine-learned sodium-cathode voltages

arXiv:2606.23725v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Machine-learning screens for battery materials are trained and judged almost entirely against computed reference voltages, and those references carry their own systematic errors. We report a case in which this matters quantitatively: our own screening stack (a graph-network voltage screen, a prior-art triage layer, and a local PBE+U bench) fails pre-registered validation against experiment-anchored literature values. Verdict thresholds, failure modes, and the primary metric were committed before analysis. On an operator-audited set of known Na-ion cathodes (n = 6 after one documented exclusion; verdict unchanged at n = 7), the raw held-out mean absolute error was 0.67 V, the pre-registered conservative metric, the upper 95% confidence bound of the cross-validated bias-corrected error, was 1.09 V, and the residual was strongly voltage-dependent (r = -0.94), so no additive calibration is valid. On the two compounds where prediction, database reference, and experiment could all be compared, the Materials Project PBE+U reference sat about 0.54 V below measurement: the reference, not the model, dominated the error. A prior-art screen found at least 70% of the targeted Na substitution space already published. We retire the screen, bound what "verified" means for our DFT ledger, and pre-register a calibration audit of it against four benchmark Li couples.

13.
bioRxiv (Bioinfo) 2026-06-17

AMaNITA: an end-to-end workflow for native tRNA nanopore sequencing data analysis

Transfer RNA (tRNA) molecules serve as essential adapters during protein translation. While direct RNA sequencing (DRS) via Oxford Nanopore Technologies has emerged as a powerful platform for systematic tRNAome profiling, we currently lack a simple and robust statistical framework for nanopore tRNA data analyses. Here, we address this gap by developing AMaNITA (Abundance, Modifications, and Nanopore Intensity Toolbox Application), an end-to-end bioinformatic workflow that enables simplified, robust, and scalable analyses of nanopore native tRNA sequencing datasets. AMaNITA streamlines the entire analytical trajectory: from upstream processing (basecalling, mapping, filtering, batch effect correction) to downstream assessment of differential tRNA abundance and modification stoichiometry. The workflow generates an interactive HTML report for data exploration and analysis, allowing the user to download the source data files and resulting plots. AMaNITA can be executed using Singularity from the command line, without requiring installation of dependencies.

14.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-15

The Holistic Storage of Verb+Up Phrases in Text-based and Audio-based Language Models

A crucial aspect of linguistic capability is the ability to trade off between stored representations and abstract knowledge: one must retrieve learned representations, but also generate novel ones by applying productive rules. While recent work has examined abstract knowledge in language models, holistic storage of multi-word units has received far less attention. We probe internal representations in text-based LLMs and an ASR model, testing whether V+up phrasal verbs develop distinct representations as a function of frequency and predictability. All models show evidence of holistic storage driven by frequency and predictability, further supporting usage-based theories of language.

15.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-12

ShapeBench: A Scalable Benchmark and Diagnostic Suite for Standardized Evaluation in Aerodynamic Shape Optimization

arXiv:2605.20763v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Rapid progress in aerodynamic shape optimization (ASO) has outpaced currently-available standardized evaluation frameworks. Fair comparison requires a unified benchmark spanning diverse shape classes, objective formulations, and matched-budget state-of-the-art baselines. We introduce ShapeBench, an open-source ASO benchmark with a unified API spanning 103 tasks across eight shape categories and multiple optimization regimes. Each ShapeBench task includes a validated surrogate for fast search; when feasible, a high-fidelity Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) pipeline for final verification is available, enabling systematic fidelity-gap analysis. ShapeBench provides a reproducible protocol with well-configured baselines to compare fairly using a consistent budget metric, allowing for comparison among both classical and LLM-driven methods, including general-purpose optimizers and a new domain-specialized evolutionary LLM baseline, ShapeEvolve. Results on ShapeBench demonstrate substantial variance in optimizer rankings across shape categories and problem formulations, with mean pairwise Spearman $\rho = 0.013$, so single-task conclusions do not reliably generalize across problem classes. The benchmark is also far from saturation; classical methods are rarely applicable across all shape categories and tasks, further highlighting the need for more general-purpose approaches.

16.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-18

AI Sandboxes: A Threat Model, Taxonomy, and Measurement Framework

arXiv:2606.18532v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: AI systems are increasingly evaluated in bounded environments that combine isolation, simulation, instrumentation, supervision, and evidence capture. For physical AI, AIoT, and cyber-physical systems, this shift is not a matter of terminology: the system under test may sense, decide, actuate, communicate, and fail through physical processes, networked devices, and human operators. This article develops an assurance-oriented account of AI sandboxes as controlled environments for testing, evaluation, verification, and validation across digital AI, embodied autonomy, and cyber-physical deployments. We formalize the sandbox boundary and a weakest-link rule for composing per-dimension evidence into a bounded deployment claim; separate major sandbox archetypes; define a cyber-physical threat model that includes attacks on the assurance apparatus itself; and introduce a measurement framework spanning fidelity, controllability, observability, containment, reproducibility, and governance artifacts, instantiated on three worked case studies of real sandboxes. The resulting threat model, taxonomy, and measurement framework clarify what a sandbox can validly test, which risks it can contain, and what forms of evidence it can support for safety, security, and regulatory assurance.

17.
bioRxiv (Bioinfo) 2026-06-10

Bias-mitigated microbiome inference refines coronary artery disease signature

Authors:

Roughly half the cells in the human body are microbial, and changes in these communities are increasingly implicated in cardiovascular, metabolic, and oncological diseases. Yet identifying which taxa truly differ in abundance, differential abundance (DA), is distorted by four major sources of bias: loss of total microbial load, taxa measurement efficiencies, arbitrary pseudocounts required to handle pervasive zeros, and contamination which has recently driven retractions. No existing DA method accounts for all four. Here we introduce BootDA, a non-parametric bootstrap-based method that explicitly models each bias source without data transformations, pseudocounts, parametric assumptions, or assuming that most taxa are non-DA. In semi-parametric simulations preserving the sparsity (>70% zeros) and correlation structure of real 16S amplicon data, BootDA achieved the highest sensitivity among tested methods, including ANCOM-BC2, LinDA, MaAsLin 3, and Wilcoxon tests, while controlling the false discovery rate. Performance was retained in low biomass settings when contamination contributed ~50% of counts, and without negative controls, indicating de novo decontamination capability. Applied to a coronary artery disease cohort, BootDA refined the original signature to two co-enriched genera, Klebsiella and Gemmiger, and excluded likely contaminants. BootDA is available as an R package and could generalise to other sparse, high dimensional biological data.

18.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-22

A blinded, counterbalanced rater design for evaluating AI-assisted summarisation of tertiary clinical genomics reports: methodology of the QNOMX-VHIR-CPSP-001 Phase 1 study

Background. Tertiary clinical genomics reports condense layered molecular findings into documents that treating oncologists must read, translate, and act upon; manual summarisation of these reports is time-consuming and variable. Tools that assist summarisation and translation into local languages are emerging, yet the field lacks an agreed methodology for evaluating such tools before any downstream clinical use. The appropriate first endpoint is fidelity of the generated summary to its source report, assessed by qualified human raters under blinded scoring, not downstream variant classification. Methods. QNOMX-VHIR-CPSP-001 Phase 1 is a single-site, non-interventional clinical performance study conducted at Vall d'Hebron Institut de Recerca (VHIR) under ISO 20916:2019 as a Clinical Performance Study Protocol. De-identified tertiary cancer genomics reports from pediatric oncology cases are summarised by the AI-assisted summarisation system under evaluation and, in parallel, by the standard manual workflow. Qualified raters score both summary types against the source genomics report using the Quality Summary Index (QSI), a six-dimension, five-point rubric adapted from the Provider Documentation Summarization Quality Instrument, under a blinded, counterbalanced, two-period crossover with a minimum fourteen-day washout. Two co-primary composite endpoints, content and presentation, are analysed for non-inferiority under a Bayesian hierarchical model, with a frequentist linear mixed model as the convergence check. Inter-rater reliability is reported as Krippendorff's ; a Monte-Carlo power analysis of the fixed clustered design is pre-specified. Discussion. The design isolates summarisation quality from clinical decision-making by scoring both summary types against the same source report under blinding, counterbalancing, and a fourteen-day washout. Conclusion. The QSI rubric, the counterbalanced crossover, and the pre-specified Bayesian primary with frequentist convergence check define a replicable protocol for early-stage evaluation of AI-assisted summarisation in tertiary genomics reporting; observed variance components will inform sample-size determination for Phase 2.

19.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-18

Probing Semantic Alignment, Lexical Invariance, and Syntactic Influence in LLM Metaphor Processing

Large language models (LLMs) achieve strong performance on metaphor detection and interpretation tasks, yet it remains unclear what such behavioral success reveals about metaphor processing. We present a diagnostic analysis that examines the limits of behavioral evidence by probing three complementary dimensions: semantic attribute alignment, lexical invariance, and syntactic sensitivity. Using geometric probing, we assess whether model-generated interpretations align with reference semantic attributes; through context-varying substitution, we analyze the stability of lexical associations between metaphorical and literal expressions; and via controlled syntactic perturbations, we examine sensitivity in metaphor detection. Our analysis reveals that LLM-generated interpretations can exhibit semantic drift relative to reference attributes; stable lexical anchors persist across contextual conditions, potentially supporting conventional metaphors while biasing novel metaphors requiring contextual integration; and detection performance is sensitive to syntactic irregularities. These findings suggest that strong behavioral performance may reflect heterogeneous underlying signals, highlighting the need for caution when interpreting metaphor benchmarks as evidence of robust, integrated semantic understanding.

20.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-17

Counterfactual Optimization of Baseball Pitch Sequences and Estimation of Its Impact on Season-Level Statistics

arXiv:2606.17345v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Although pitch sequencing is a central topic in baseball analytics, previous studies have primarily focused on optimizing the final pitch within a single plate appearance, leaving the role of preceding setup pitches and their impact on long-term season-level performance insufficiently examined. To address these issues, this study conducted counterfactual analyses using MLB Statcast data. A Transformer-based machine-learning model was trained to predict whether a target pitch would result in an in-play outcome or swing-out. Counterfactual pitch sequences were then generated by replacing either the final pitch or the preceding setup pitch with alternative pitch types and locations while keeping the surrounding contextual information fixed. Optimal counterfactual selections were defined as those that minimized the predicted in-play probability, and their expected effects on pitchers' seasonal statistics were estimated using regression models linking model outputs to season statistics. The results suggest that the optimization of both final and setup pitches may substantially influence season-level performance, including improvements of more than 1.0 in K/9. The analyses also provided several practical insights, including velocity-band-specific effective locations, the importance of pitch commands, and the expansion of pitch-selection options through middle-velocity pitches. These findings quantitatively support the strategic importance of pitch sequencing in baseball.

21.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-19

Finite-Sample Bounds for Expected Signature Estimation under Weak Dependence

arXiv:2605.20541v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: The expected signature uniquely determines the law of a random rough path under a moment-growth condition, yet finite-sample bounds for estimating its truncations from a single long dependent trajectory remain unavailable. We study a strictly stationary stochastic process equipped with a geometric rough-path lift, observed in non-overlapping blocks of equally-spaced samples, and prove a non-asymptotic mean-squared error (MSE) bound for the block-averaging estimator of its truncated expected signature. Under moment and stationarity assumptions together with a direct covariance-decay condition on block signatures – strictly weaker than $\alpha$-mixing and applicable to long-range-dependent processes – the error separates into a discretization term and a fluctuation term, with rates determined respectively by path regularity and dependence strength. A levelwise rough-factorial variance analysis keeps finite-truncation constants explicit and yields an optimal allocation rule under a fixed observation budget. We verify the assumptions for independent-coordinate fractional Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes in three regimes: short-range (Hurst $1/41/2$. Monte Carlo experiments show empirical slopes steeper than the guaranteed upper-bound rates.

22.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-12

Using Seismic Statistical Features and VQ-VAE to Improve Spatiotemporal Seismicity Predictability

arXiv:2606.10069v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: In this paper we build upon a previous study in which we demonstrated, using XGBoost and earthquake catalogue data from Japan and Chile, that a set of 60 seismic statistical features (SSFs) had much greater predictive value than a set of 428 generic time series features from the tsfresh package. We here extend this previous work in two key ways, focusing on data from Japan as a large dataset is necessary in order to allow for the training of a deep learning (autoencoder) model. First, we move from whole-region prediction (considering, for each candidate event, the likelihood of an event M $\geq$ 5.0 anywhere in the region in the next 15 days) to localised predictions in which both the region of feature computation and the region of prediction are restricted to a circle of radius 24 km around the candidate event, and we show that performance remains excellent, similar to our previous whole-region study for the same area. Second, we here couple this proven set of SSFs, based on one-dimensional (catalogue) data, with a novel feature based on two-dimensional seismic maps, obtained by training a VQ-VAE model to reproduce such maps as output and identifying a measure of its error in doing so with a localised build-up of crustal stress. We show that while localised prediction based on SSFs can be effective alone, with test AUC values as high as those obtained in the case of Japan in our previous whole-region study, the inclusion of the new natively-spatial VQ-VAE-derived feature, top-ranked by SHAP analysis, can enhance performance and additionally appears to near-wholly replace the traditionally-computed $b$-value in terms of feature usage.

23.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-11

EverydayGPT: Confidence-Gated Routing for Efficient and Safe Hybrid GPT-RAG Conversational QA

Standard Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) pipelines route every query through retrieval and generation unconditionally, incurring unnecessary computation and propagating low-quality context to the generator. We introduce EverydayGPT, a lightweight conversational QA system built around a Confidence-Gated Routing (CGR) mechanism that formalises the routing decision as a joint policy over retrieval distance and extraction adequacy. The backbone is a 205M-parameter GPT trained from scratch on 10B tokens of FineWeb-Edu. CGR avoids invoking the costly GPT pathway (~5.9s) for 85 percent of queries by resolving them via fast RAG extraction (~45 ms), yielding over 120x latency reduction on the majority of queries while maintaining answer quality. On a 500-question in-domain benchmark, the system achieves F1 = 0.226 +/- 0.004 compared to 0.171 for GPT-only and 0.210 for unconditional RAG. Gains over strong baselines are modest but consistent, while efficiency improvements are substantial (6.3x mean latency reduction). A structured grounding audit finds no unsupported claims in the sampled set, with explicit scope limitations. We position this work as a study of routing strategies under resource constraints rather than a claim of state-of-the-art performance.

24.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-15

The Program Is Still There: A Conservation Law for Program Discovery

arXiv:2606.13799v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Finding the shortest program that generates a sequence is uncomputable, and for six decades that fact has been mistaken for a wall around finding any generating program. It is not a wall but a price, and this paper measures it. For every algorithm that learns about a candidate program only through its score, a class spanning Levin search, evolutionary methods, simulated annealing, and the cross-entropy method, we define the coupling width of a search problem and prove an unconditional worst-case lower bound, exponential in that width with base one less than the domain size. From it follows a conservation law: structural knowledge injected into a search trades one for one against the search it removes, and their sum can never fall below the length of the program sought. Levin's 1973 upper bound and the lower bound proved here are the two ends of one conserved quantity, closing on each other as the instruction set grows. The only escape is to read a candidate's structure rather than its score, and its price, which we prove for generic targets, is incompleteness. A deterministic engine built on this theory recovers a generating program, certified by compressing its data and predicting an unseen continuation, for 2,383 of 3,914 sequences across four independent populations, including 244 of the 256 elementary cellular automata, with measured discovery cost rising along program length more than an order of magnitude inside the score-oracle worst case.