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02.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-11

Prediction-Powered Risk Monitoring of Deployed Models for Detecting Harmful Distribution Shifts

Authors:
Guangyi Zhang↗Yunlong Cai↗Guanding Yu↗Osvaldo Simeone↗

arXiv:2602.02229v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We study the problem of monitoring model performance in dynamic environments where labeled data are limited. To this end, we propose prediction-powered risk monitoring (PPRM), a semi-supervised risk-monitoring approach based on prediction-powered inference (PPI). PPRM constructs anytime-valid lower bounds on the running risk by combining synthetic labels with a small set of true labels. Harmful shifts are detected via a threshold-based comparison with an upper bound on the nominal risk, satisfying assumption-free finite-sample guarantees on the type-I error. We demonstrate the effectiveness of PPRM through extensive experiments on image classification, large language model (LLM), and telecommunications monitoring tasks.

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03.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-18

A Reproducible Log-Driven AutoML Framework for Interpretable Pipeline Optimization in Healthcare Risk Prediction

Authors:
Rui Huang↗Lican Huang↗

arXiv:2605.21528v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Accurate disease risk prediction is challenged by heterogeneous features, limited data, and class imbalance. This study presents yvsoucom-iterkit, a deterministic AutoML framework that models pipeline optimization as a configuration-level system with full reproducibility and traceable execution logs, enabling systematic analysis of component attribution, interactions, similarity, and cross-seed robustness. Experiments on the Pima Indians Diabetes and Stroke datasets across more than 18,000 pipeline configurations reveal a structured yet partially redundant search space, where performance is dominated by a small subset of interacting components. Ensemble models achieve stable performance, reaching a Weighted-F1 of 0.89 on Pima and 0.94 on Stroke. Macro-F1 reaches approximately 0.88 on Pima but drops to 0.6560 on Stroke due to severe imbalance. Cross-seed experiments show that ensembles reduce variance compared to single models. Friedman testing ($p < 0.05$) confirms significant ranking differences across configurations. Based on analysis of component attribution, interaction, and similarity, optimal configuration design reveals dataset-dependent behavior. For the Pima dataset, computational efficiency benefits from simplified search spaces where redundant components can be removed, with split ratio playing a key role. In contrast, the Stroke dataset requires enhanced imbalance-aware strategies, where RandomOverSampler improves Macro-F1 from 0.6560 to 0.6766. These findings demonstrate that effective AutoML optimization is achieved through optimal configuration design, where carefully constraining the search space to high-impact components can improve performance, stability, and interpretability while reducing unnecessary search complexity.

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04.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-16

The distribution of the de Moivre experiment

Authors:
Hac\`ene Belbachir↗Hamza Zeggada↗

arXiv:2606.15178v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In this paper, we focus on de Moivre random experience which allows us to introduce the $ s- $Bernoulli distribution and the bi$ ^s $nomial distribution. We present some probabilistic properties such as the expectation, the variance, the skewness and kurtosis coefficients, the moments and the generating functions. Then we establish that for $ s\in\mathbb{N} $, the bi$ ^s $nomial distribution converges to a limiting Poisson and normal distributions when $ n\rightarrow\infty. $

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05.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-12

Rethinking Psychometric Evaluation of LLMs: When and Why Self-Reports Predict Behavior

Authors:
Rafal Kocielnik↗Pengrui Han↗Peiyang Song↗Myrl G. Marmarelis↗Ramit Debnath↗Dean Mobbs↗Anima Anandkumar↗R. Michael Alvarez↗

Anticipating LLM behavioral tendencies from low-cost psychometric probes is critical for safe deployment, but only if self-reports (SR) reliably predict behavior. Recent work documented substantial SR-behavior dissociation in LLMs, but relied on broad personality traits (Big 5) that predict specific behaviors weakly, even in humans. Furthermore, the isolation of conversational sessions combined with weak context matching left open whether LLMs truly lack coherence or whether the conditions needed to detect such coherence were not met. We contrast Big 5 with the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB), which measures intention targeted to a specific behavior and predicts human behavior substantially better than broad traits. We run experiments across four behavioral tasks and 11 frontier LLMs, while also varying session context and identity induction. We find that SR-behavior coherence exists but is selective. 1) Within a shared conversation, the Theory of Planned Behavior reaches human-level coherence; Big 5 does not. 2) Across separate conversations, coherence survives only for behaviors anchored outside the immediate prompt, such as implicit bias shaped by training, and collapses when behavior is strongly primed by context, as with sycophancy. 3) Persona prompting makes self-reports more consistent across conversations, but does not bring behavior into alignment. These findings suggest that coarse personality frameworks, such as Big 5 may not be the best tools for testing deployment behavior. More task- and behavior-specific instruments are needed, and even these must be evaluated across tasks and contexts.

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06.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-24

Anticipating the Optimism Gap: Predicting Distribution-Shift Degradation of RF-Impairment Detectors from In-Distribution Statistics

Authors:
Chakshu Baweja↗

arXiv:2606.22054v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Detectors for GNSS radio-frequency impairments (jamming, spoofing, multipath) are usually reported with a single AUC measured on the distribution they were tuned on. That number falls once conditions move, and the size of the drop is rarely known in advance because labelled field data is scarce. We ask whether this optimism can be predicted before any out-of-distribution data is seen. On an open, parameter-grounded synthetic testbed with a tunable severity shift, we evaluate thirteen detectors (five physics baselines, full-feature logistic regression and multilayer perceptrons, and single-feature learned controls) across four impairment classes. The optimism gap, the difference between in-distribution and shifted AUC, grows monotonically as the shift deepens (mean Spearman correlation 0.50). It is driven by how many observables a detector uses rather than by whether it is learned, and it varies systematically by class. Centrally, a ridge model built only from in-distribution score statistics predicts the gap for a detector it has never seen (R^2 = 0.47) and for an impairment class it has never seen (R^2 = 0.46); both are significant against a 2000-fold permutation null (p < 0.001) and survive removing the feature that is, by construction, part of the target. The headline findings are synthetic. We then run the pre-registered protocol on three open field corpora: on Jammertest 2024 the cross-detector prediction holds (R^2 = 0.11, p = 0.009), and on SatGrid, whose spoofer power sweep gives a calibrated severity axis, in-distribution AUC overstates higher-severity AUC by up to 0.22 and to the point of sign inversion, with in-distribution AUC and realised gap perfectly rank-correlated (Spearman rho = 1.0). The mechanism survives contact with real data, at smaller magnitude than in simulation. We release the testbed, a software-receiver front end, the ingest adapters and the protocol.

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07.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-12

Stereo Vision-Based Fall Prediction and Detection using Human Pose Estimation on the AMD Kria K26 SOM

Authors:
Shreyas Narasimhiah Ramesh↗P. D. Rathika↗Mahasweta Sarkar↗Kristen Wells↗Michel Audette↗Christopher Paolini↗

Background and Objective: Falls among elderly people can cause serious injury and reduce quality of life. Timely prediction and detection are essential to prevent harm and support well-being. We propose a portable, low-power, battery-operated, vision-based fall prediction and detection system using HPE on an AMD Kria K26 System-on-Module (SOM). The objective is a non-intrusive, privacy-preserving system for real-time fall detection. Methods: The system uses an Intel RealSense D455 range-sensing camera connected to the K26 SOM by USB. It captures synchronized RGB and depth frames, 640 x 480 x 3 and 640 x 480 pixels, at 60 FPS. The SOM runs a three-stage pipeline with quantized YOLOX, Anchor-to-Joint (A2J), and fall-detection models. YOLOX identifies human bounding boxes from RGB frames, then discards the RGB frames to preserve privacy. A2J uses depth frames to estimate 15 joint keypoints per person. A CNN uses selected joint coordinates (x, y, z) to classify fall activity. YOLOX was trained on CrowdHuman; A2J on ITOP, MP-3DHP, UR Fall Detection, and a custom SDSU PSG dataset; and the CNN on UR Fall Detection and SDSU PSG. The design used a single-core DPU with a serial pipeline and a dual-core DPU running YOLOX and A2J with multiple threads. Results: Quantized accuracy was evaluated using IoU >= 50% for YOLOX, mAP with a 10-cm rule for A2J, and classification accuracy, (TP + TN)/(TP + TN + FP + FN), for the CNN. Accuracies were 74%, 84.13%, and 75.85%. Throughput improved from 2.5 FPS for the single-threaded pipeline to 4.5 FPS for the multi-threaded version. Conclusion: Results demonstrate the feasibility of privacy-preserving fall detection on an AMD Kria K26 edge device. On-device HPE and fall classification runs without cloud dependency, supporting elderly monitoring and assistive healthcare. Future work will improve model accuracy and speed.

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08.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-19

Group-Sparse Matrix Factorization for Transfer Learning of Word Embeddings

Authors:
Kan Xu↗Xuanyi Zhao↗Hamsa Bastani↗Osbert Bastani↗

Unstructured text provides decision-makers with a rich data source in many domains, ranging from product reviews in retail to nursing notes in healthcare. To leverage this information, words are typically translated into word embeddings – vectors that encode the semantic relationships between words – through unsupervised learning algorithms such as matrix factorization. However, learning word embeddings from new domains with limited training data can be challenging, because the meaning/usage may be different in the new domain, e.g., the word ``positive'' typically has positive sentiment, but often has negative sentiment in medical notes since it may imply that a patient tested positive for a disease. In practice, we expect that only a small number of domain-specific words may have new meanings. We propose an intuitive two-stage estimator that exploits this structure via a group-sparse penalty to efficiently transfer learn domain-specific word embeddings by combining large-scale text corpora (such as Wikipedia) with limited domain-specific text data. We bound the generalization error of our transfer learning estimator, proving that it can achieve high accuracy with substantially less domain-specific data when only a small number of embeddings are altered between domains. Furthermore, we prove that all local minima identified by our nonconvex objective function are statistically indistinguishable from the global minimum under standard regularization conditions, implying that our estimator can be computed efficiently. Our results provide the first bounds on group-sparse matrix factorization, which may be of independent interest. We empirically evaluate our approach compared to state-of-the-art fine-tuning heuristics from natural language processing.

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09.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-25

Hybrid deep learning-based phase diversity method for wavefront reconstruction

Authors:
Y. Rodimkov↗A. Kotov↗K. Burdonov↗S. Perevalov↗V. Volokitin↗I. Meyerov↗A. Soloviev↗

The efficiency of high-power laser systems is limited by wavefront distortions in the beam, particularly non-common path aberrations, which reduce the peak intensity at the focal plane. Compensating for these aberrations requires the calibration of the adaptive optics system. Conventional calibration methods rely on a time-consuming iterative optimization that is highly sensitive to initial conditions. While deep learning-based models offer high speed, they often demonstrate insufficient accuracy. In this work, we present a hybrid wavefront reconstruction method that combines a convolutional neural network to generate an initial estimate of the wavefront distortions, with the L-BFGS (Limited-memory Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno) algorithm for its subsequent refinement. In numerical simulations, the method achieved an efficiency of $\sim 0.99$ in 80% of the cases for a root-mean-square (RMS) of wavefront distortions ranging from 0 to $1.3\lambda$. In a physical experiment, for initial wavefront distortions with RMS values from 0.15 to $0.6\lambda$, the method achieved an efficiency of $\sim 0.75$. As a result, focusing with a Strehl ratio of $0.96 \pm 0.02$ was attained within 2 to 4 iterations of the algorithm, confirming the applicability of the method for the fast and accurate calibration of adaptive optics systems under real experimental conditions.

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10.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-12

Net-Ev$^2$: A Generative Simulator for Network Event Evolution

Authors:
Guangyu Wang↗Zhaonan Wang↗

arXiv:2606.12494v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Reducing real-world trial and error has long been a central goal of decision making, and generative simulators advance this goal by modeling the evolution of future states. An even more challenging yet meaningful task is simulating how disturbance events (e.g., accidents) propagate their impacts across real-world networks. The existing approaches fall short of modeling both structured attributes and unstructured semantics of events, and capturing topological structures in simulating network event evolution. Therefore, we are motivated to propose Net-Ev$^2$ ($\underline{Net}$work $\underline{Ev}$ent $\underline{Ev}$olution), a novel generative simulator that jointly leverages event cues while preserving network topology in simulations. Specifically, the framework consists of two stages, namely structure-guided masked pre-training and topology-aware diffusion process, which is achieved by U-Net-like graph downsampling and upsampling during denoising. At inference time, Net-Ev$^2$ can generate simulations using natural-language event input only, with greater flexibility for practical usage. Furthermore, we introduce Net-Ev$^2$-6.5M, a multimodal benchmark of aligned event and network traffic data across four large-scale road networks, as well as a new topology-aware metric, namely JL-MMD, to evaluate topological fidelity in generated network dynamics. Extensive experiments demonstrate the state-of-the-art performance and strong generalization ability of Net-Ev$^2$. Code is made available at https://github.com/Guangyu4/Net-Ev-2.

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11.
Nature (Science) 2026-06-10

Light slows down carbon nanotubes in water

Authors:
Nikita Kavokine↗

Water-suspended carbon nanotubes move more slowly in green light, suggesting that excited electrons in the tubes couple to the water through ‘quantum friction’. Water-suspended carbon nanotubes move more slowly in green light, suggesting that excited electrons in the tubes couple to the water through ‘quantum friction’.

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12.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-25

Continual Knowledge Updating in LLM Systems: Learning Through Multi-Timescale Memory Dynamics

Authors:
Andreas Pattichis↗Constantine Dovrolis↗

LLMs are trained once, then deployed into a world that never stops changing. External memory compensates for this, but most systems manage it explicitly rather than letting it adapt on its own. Biological memory works differently: coupled multi-timescale dynamics make new associations immediately usable, strengthen what repetition confirms, and let the rest fade. We argue that external memory should follow a similar principle. In Memini, this view takes the form of an associative memory that organizes knowledge as a directed graph. Each edge carries two coupled internal variables, one fast and one slow, following the Benna-Fusi model of synaptic consolidation. From this coupling, episodic sensitivity, gradual consolidation, and selective forgetting are expected to emerge as facets of a single mechanism, reframing external memory as a learning substrate that reorganizes through its own dynamics. This workshop article describes an early-stage conceptual design without experimental evaluation.

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13.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-12

Sociodemographic and health correlates of reimbursement authorizations for cannabis for medical purposes in Canadian veterans: A cross-sectional study linking the Life After Services Studies 2019 and Health Administrative Databases

Authors:
Kendzerska↗Reyes↗Poirier↗Cull↗Murkar↗Saymeh↗Belanger↗Williams↗Shlik↗Jetly↗Robillard↗

Background Evidence on factors associated with cannabis for medical purposes (CMP) authorizations among Veterans Affairs Canada (VAC) clients remains limited and inconsistent, particularly concerning mental health and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), a leading indication for use. We investigated demographic, clinical and service characteristics associated with VAC authorizations for CMP reimbursement. Method We linked VAC administrative CMP program data with responses from the 2019 Life After Services Studies cross-sectional survey of Regular Force veterans released between 1998 and 2018. Multivariable logistic regressions examined associations between CMP reimbursement (yes/no) and demographic, clinical and well-being factors, with analyses stratified by PTSD status. Results Among 1,289 respondents (weighted n=33,131), 18.4% were authorized for CMP reimbursement. Younger age (

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14.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-12

OmniDirector: General Multi-Shot Camera Cloning without Cross-Paired Data

Authors:
Jiwen Liu↗Shujuan Li↗Zhixue Fang↗Xiaohan Li↗Yan Zhou↗Zijie Meng↗Zhimin Zhang↗Yawen Luo↗Guoxin Zhang↗Yu-Shen Liu↗Pengfei Wan↗

Cloning camera motion from reference videos is an important task in video generation, as videos provide intuitive and precise control. Existing methods either directly use parametric representations that fail to handle multi-shot generation or synthesize cross-paired data, which suffer from data scarcity, resulting in poor performance in complicated camera motion cloning. To address these issues, we introduce a general camera motion representation that encodes cameras as grid motion videos. This camera grid represents the camera parameters visually and supports the integration of diverse trajectories for multi-shot video generation. Building upon this, we propose OmniDirector, a unified framework trained on a million-scale camera grid-video pairs that coordinates characters, actions, and cameras to provide director-level control for multimodal diffusion transformers. Furthermore, we design a novel hierarchical prompt expansion agent that harmoniously integrates different control signals by systematically describing camera motion and visual content through understanding signal relationships. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superior performance and outstanding controllability of our framework. Project page: https://ymlinfeng.github.io/OmniDirector.github.io/

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15.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-24

Quantum-enhanced estimation of stimulated Raman optical activity

Authors:
Mahadeva Chanda Durjoy↗Girish S. Agarwal↗

arXiv:2606.23722v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In recent times there has been growing interest in Raman optical activity (ROA) for its label free detection of absolute configuration, conformation, and stereochemical structure in chiral biosamples and drug molecules. Since ROA signals are generally small, techniques such as stimulation by a probe beam can be used to enhance the signal strength. However, with a classical probe, the measurement precision is still fundamentally limited by its shot noise. To solve this problem we propose the use of two-mode squeezed vacuum and show that it can achieve sub-shot noise limited measurement sensitivity. Using quantum estimation theory, we derived the quantum Fisher information and the quantum Cramér-Rao bound (QCRB) for stimulated ROA measurement to quantify the precision enhancement. This improvement comes from photon-number correlations which suppress the intensity fluctuation common to both modes. We further show that balanced detection of the output intensity difference is a practical measurement scheme that approaches the QCRB and becomes optimal in the small-chirality limit. This opens a promising path toward more sensitive Raman chiroptical spectroscopy of weak and photosensitive samples.

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16.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-24

q-Askey Deformations of Double-Scaled SYK

Authors:
Sergio E. Aguilar-Gutierrez↗Trivko Kukolj↗Josef Seitz↗

arXiv:2605.13956v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We construct families of deformations of the double-scaled SYK (DSSYK) model and investigate their bulk interpretation. We introduce microscopic deformations of the SYK model which, after ensemble averaging and in the double-scaling limit, are described by a transfer matrix encoding the recurrence relations of basic orthogonal polynomials in the q-Askey scheme. For certain families of deformations in the semiclassical limit at finite temperature, the chord number (encoding Krylov complexity) corresponds to the length of an Einstein-Rosen bridge connecting an End-Of-The-World brane to an anti-de Sitter asymptotic boundary. By increasing one of the deformation parameters, the models eventually exhibit discrete energy levels, signaling a new geometric transition in sine dilaton gravity. Via the SYK-Schur duality, Krylov complexity also admits a representation-theoretic interpretation as the spread of the SU(2) spin in the index of an $\mathcal{N}=2$ SU(2) gauge theory. We study the operator algebras of the deformed theories. The algebras can be type II$_1$ or type I$_\infty$ factors, depending on the operators that are included. The entanglement entropy between the type II$_1$ algebras for a pure state manifests as an extremal surface through the Ryu-Takayanagi formula. We discuss connections between our results and the emergence of baby universes in the bulk.

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17.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

Fusion Learning from Dynamic Functional Connectivity: Combining the Amplitude and Phase of fMRI Signals to Identify Brain Disorders

Authors:
Jinlong Hu↗Jiatong Huang↗Zijian Cai↗

arXiv:2603.24603v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Dynamic functional connectivity (dFC) derived from resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) has been extensively utilized in brain science research. The sliding window correlation (SWC) method is a widely used approach for constructing dFC by computing correlation coefficients between amplitude time series of signals from pairs of brain regions. In this study, we propose an integrated approach that incorporates both amplitude and phase information of fMRI signals to improve the detection of brain disorders. Specifically, we introduce a multi-scale fusion learning framework, namely MSFL, which leverages two complementary dFC features derived from SWC and phase synchronization (PS). Here, SWC captures amplitude correlations, while PS measures phase coherence within dFC. We evaluated the efficacy of MSFL in classifying autism spectrum disorder and major depressive disorder using two publicly available datasets: ABIDE I and REST-meta-MDD, respectively. The results indicate that MSFL significantly outperforms existing comparative models. Moreover, we performed model explanation analysis using the SHAP framework, which showed that both types of dFC features from SWC and PS contribute to detecting brain disorders.

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18.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-24

A Simplex Witness Certificate and Escape Force for Constant Collapse in Variational Autoencoders

Authors:
Zegu Zhang↗Jian Zhang↗

arXiv:2605.18224v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We study exact constant collapse in variational autoencoders: the deterministic encoder mean becomes independent of the input. The prior remains the standard Gaussian. Before VAE training, we select a fixed teacher posterior from a GMM-based view of the data and attach a fixed latent-only simplex witness to the encoder mean. This construction yields two linked objects. The first is a certificate: if the witness prediction improves on the best constant predictor of the teacher, the encoder mean cannot be input-independent constant. The second is a local escape direction: on the collapsed manifold, the teacher residual gives a sample-dependent descent direction for the alignment loss. For any full-support teacher posterior, the same geometry also gives a closed-form latent code with zero teacher-witness alignment error. Its scaled versions trace a margin-energy path from the constant predictor to the exact teacher code, which quantifies non-collapse inside the protected witness subspace. We instantiate the method on MNIST, CIFAR-10, and CIFAR-100. With searched unsupervised PCA-GMM teachers, vanilla VAEs fail the teacher-witness certificate in all five seeds on CIFAR-10 and CIFAR-100, while RST variants pass in all five seeds. Under collapse-stress settings with \(\beta_{\mathrm{KL}}\in\{2,4,8\}\), vanilla VAE again fails in all seeds, whereas RST-alpha-prefit remains certificate-positive. Escape trajectories on both natural-image datasets increase the witness margin from a low-margin initialization and exhibit nonzero teacher-induced gradient norms. The analysis is confined to exact constant collapse of the encoder mean; generation quality, decoder use, and other collapse modes remain separate questions.

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19.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-25

TACO: Towards Task-Consistent Open-Vocabulary Adaptation in Video Recognition

Authors:
Minghao Zhu↗Xiao Lin↗Mengxian Hu↗Xun Zhou↗Liuyi Wang↗Xiaoyan Qi↗Chengju Liu↗Qijun Chen↗

Adapting CLIP for open-vocabulary video recognition necessitates a delicate balance between newly acquired video knowledge and the pretrained generalization. While existing studies pursue this generalization-specialization trade-off with additional regularizations or constraints, we argue that they overlook the deviation of representations beyond the fine-tuning data distribution, resulting in suboptimal adaptation effects. We believe such deviation is inherited from the inconsistency between the fine-tuning and evaluation objectives, where model optimization is restricted to the known training distribution but evaluated on unseen ones. In this paper, we introduce TACO, a simple yet effective framework to mitigate the potential negative effects induced by this inconsistency. Our key insight is that adaptation should preserve OOD-relevant alignment beyond the training distribution. To this end, we propose Relative Structure Distillation, which regularizes the relative geometry of the representation space and suppresses harmful alignment shift during training. We further decouple the representation space from the optimization space with a lightweight specialization projection, allowing task-specific adaptation without directly overspecializing the representations used at test time. TACO establishes state-of-the-art performance on diverse benchmarks under cross-dataset and base-to-novel settings. Code will be released at https://github.com/ZMHH-H/TACO.

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20.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-25

Judging the Judges: A Systematic Evaluation of Bias Mitigation Strategies in LLM-as-a-Judge Pipelines

Authors:
Sadman Kabir Soumik↗

arXiv:2604.23178v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: LLM-as-a-Judge has become the dominant paradigm for evaluating language model outputs, yet LLM judges exhibit systematic biases that compromise evaluation reliability. We present a comprehensive empirical study comparing nine debiasing strategies across five judge models from four provider families (Google, Anthropic, OpenAI, Meta), three benchmarks (MT-Bench n=400, LLMBar n=200, custom n=375), and four bias types. Our headline practical finding is that a mid-tier model with the right debiasing can outperform frontier judges at a fraction of the cost: Gemini 2.5 Flash with the Combined Budget strategy reaches the highest agreement of any configuration we tested (71.0%, kappa=0.549) at ~$0.001 per evaluation, about 15x cheaper than the best frontier setup (Claude Sonnet 4, 69.5%, ~$0.015). Other key findings: (1) Style bias is the dominant bias (0.10-0.76 across models, favoring markdown over plain prose), far exceeding position bias (

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21.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-17

Conditional Attribution for Root Cause Analysis in Time-Series Anomaly Detection

Authors:
Shashank Mishra↗Karan Patil↗Cedric Schockaert↗Didier Stricker↗Jason Rambach↗

arXiv:2604.17616v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Root cause analysis (RCA) for time-series anomaly detection is critical for the reliable operation of complex real-world systems. Existing explanation methods often rely on unrealistic feature perturbations and ignore temporal and cross-feature dependencies, leading to unreliable attributions. We propose a conditional attribution framework that explains anomalies relative to contextually similar normal system states. Instead of using marginal or randomly sampled baselines, our method retrieves representative normal instances conditioned on the anomalous observation, enabling dependency-preserving and operationally meaningful explanations. To support high-dimensional time-series data, contextual retrieval is performed in learned low-dimensional representations using both variational autoencoder latent spaces and UMAP manifold embeddings. By grounding the retrieval process in the system's learned manifold, this strategy avoids out-of-distribution artifacts and ensures attribution fidelity while maintaining computational efficiency. We further introduce confidence-aware and temporal evaluation metrics for assessing explanation reliability and responsiveness. Experiments on the SWaT and MSDS benchmarks demonstrate that the proposed approach consistently improves root-cause identification accuracy, temporal localization, and robustness across multiple anomaly detection models. These results highlight the practical utility of conditional attribution for explainable anomaly diagnosis in complex time-series systems. Code and models are available at: https://github.com/dfki-av/Conditional-Attribution-for-Root-Cause-Analysis-in-Time-Series-Anomaly-Detection.

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22.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-11

From Awareness to Action: Understanding and Overcoming the Research-Practice Gap in Algorithmic Fairness for Public Health

Authors:
Sara Altamirano↗Tijs Portegies↗Sennay Ghebreab↗

arXiv:2606.11214v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Algorithmic fairness is essential for responsible ML-driven public health research, yet its practical implementation remains limited. To investigate this awareness-action gap, we conducted a sequential mixed-methods study comprising expert interviews, an online survey, and systematic mapping. The expert interviews informed the design of the survey, which in turn revealed fragmented definitions of fairness, limited training and guidance, reliance on external sources, and rare use of formal assessment, mitigation, or monitoring. These findings were subsequently mapped onto three established research-practice gap lenses: the Knowledge-Practice Gap, the Knowledge-to-Action Cycle, and the Knowing-Doing Gap, each offering complementary perspectives. Building on this synthesis, we introduce the Fairness-to-Action framework, which integrates methodological, organizational, and systemic dimensions to identify where translation of algorithmic fairness knowledge stalls. Our analysis shows that fairness remains weakly institutionalized, translation mechanisms are externally driven, and system-level priorities continue to emphasize accuracy over fairness. These insights suggest critical leverage points for advancing safe, fair, and ethical ML-driven public health research practice.

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23.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

Enhancing Generative Auto-bidding with Offline Reward Evaluation and Policy Search

Authors:
Zhiyu Mou↗Yiqin Lv↗Miao Xu↗Qi Wang↗Yixiu Mao↗Jinghao Chen↗Qichen Ye↗Chao Li↗Rongquan Bai↗Chuan Yu↗Jian Xu↗Bo Zheng↗…

arXiv:2509.15927v5 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Auto-bidding is a critical tool for advertisers to improve advertising performance. Recent progress has demonstrated that AI-Generated Bidding (AIGB), which learns a conditional generative planner from offline data, achieves superior performance compared to typical offline reinforcement learning (RL)-based auto-bidding methods. However, existing AIGB methods still face a performance bottleneck due to their inherent inability to explore beyond the static dataset with feedback. To address this, we propose AIGB-Pearl (Planning with \textbf{EvaluAtor via RL}), a novel method that integrates generative planning and policy optimization. The core of AIGB-Pearl lies in constructing a trajectory evaluator to assess the quality of generated scores and designing a provably sound KL-Lipschitz-constrained score-maximization scheme to ensure safe and efficient exploration beyond the offline dataset. A practical algorithm that incorporates the synchronous coupling technique is further developed to ensure the model regularity required by the proposed scheme. Extensive experiments on both simulated and real-world advertising systems demonstrate the state-of-the-art performance of our approach.

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24.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-16

Risk-averse mean field games: exploitability and non-asymptotic analysis

Authors:
Ziteng Cheng↗Sebastian Jaimungal↗

arXiv:2301.06930v5 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: In this paper, we use mean field games (MFGs) to investigate approximations of $N$-player games ($N$pGs) with uniformly symmetrically continuous heterogeneous closed-loop actions. To incorporate agents' risk aversion (beyond the classical expected utility of total costs), we use an abstract evaluation functional for their performance criteria. Centered around the notion of exploitability, we conduct non-asymptotic analysis on the approximation capability of MFGs from the perspective of state-action distributions without requiring the uniqueness of equilibria. Under suitable assumptions, we first show that scenarios in the $N$pGs with large $N$ and small average exploitabilities can be well approximated by approximate solutions of MFGs with relatively small exploitabilities. We then show that $\delta$-mean field equilibria can be used to construct $\varepsilon$-equilibria in $N$pGs. Furthermore, in this general setting, we prove the existence of mean field equilibria. This proof reveals a possible avenue for incorporating penalization for randomized action into MFGs.

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25.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Single-Round Clustered Federated Learning via Data Collaboration Analysis for Non-IID Data

Authors:
Sota Sugawara↗Yuji Kawamata↗Akihiro Toyoda↗Tomoru Nakayama↗Yukihiko Okada↗

arXiv:2601.09304v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Federated Learning (FL) enables distributed learning across multiple clients without sharing raw data. When statistical heterogeneity across clients is severe, Clustered Federated Learning (CFL) can im-prove performance by grouping similar clients and training cluster-wise models. However, most CFL approaches rely on multiple communication rounds for cluster estimation and model updates, which limits their practicality under tight constraints on communication rounds. We propose Data Collaboration-based Clustered Federated Learning (DC-CFL), a single-round framework that completes both client clustering and cluster-wise learning, using only the information shared in DC analysis. DC-CFL quantifies inter-client similarity via total variation distance between label distributions, estimates clusters using hierarchical clustering, and performs cluster-wise learning via DC analysis. Experiments on multiple open datasets under representative non-IID conditions show that DC-CFL achieves accuracy comparable to multi-round baselines while requiring only one communication round. These results indicate that DC-CFL is a practical alternative for collaborative AI model development when multiple communication rounds are impractical. Our source code is publicly available at https://github.com/souta-suga/DC-CFL.

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