Academic Intelligence · Curated Daily

Explore the Frontier of Global Academia

AcademicHub aggregates real-time literature from top journals and preprint platforms. Build your personal research radar and let large language models compile cross-disciplinary analysis briefings automatically.

01.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

Beyond English: Uncovering the Multilingual Gap in Vision-Language-Action Models

Vision-Language-Action models have recently demonstrated promising capabilities in learning generalist robot policies from large-scale multimodal data. However, most existing VLA systems are trained and evaluated primarily with English instructions, leaving their ability to understand and execute instructions in other languages largely unexplored. While the underlying large language models often possess multilingual capabilities, it remains unclear whether these multilingual capabilities transfer to VLAs during training. In this work, we present the first systematic study of multilingual instruction following in VLA models. We first construct multilingual instructions by extending existing benchmarks with translations of their instructions. Using these instructions, we evaluate several representative VLA models across a range of tasks in simulation settings. Our experiments reveal a significant multilingual gap: models trained primarily on English instructions exhibit substantial performance degradation when evaluated on other languages, even when the underlying language backbone is multilingual. We provide several findings and analyses to understand the multilingual gap. Cross-lingual transfer behavior analysis shows that performance drops correlate with both instruction understanding and action execution. Representation analyses suggest that multilingual instruction-caused representation shifts may contribute to the multilingual gap. Motivated by these findings, we further explore strategies to improve multilingual performance in VLAs. We propose a simple yet effective multilingual fine-tuning approach, Multilingual Principal Component Alignment, which leverages Principal Component Analysis to get the principal component subspace and align projected multilingual representations, effectively reducing the multilingual performance gap.

02.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-15

AgentSpec: Understanding Embodied Agent Scaffolds Through Controlled Composition

LLM agents are increasingly built not as single model calls, but as scaffolded systems that combine reasoning, memory, reflection, action execution, and learning. While such scaffolds often improve performance, they are often embedded in tightly coupled pipelines, making it difficult to isolate component contributions, compare alternative designs, or understand how module interactions shape agent behavior. We introduce AgentSpec, a modular specification framework that represents embodied agents as typed compositions of reusable policy components with standardized interfaces. AgentSpec standardizes the interfaces among perception, memory, reasoning, reflection, action, and optional learning, enabling components to be swapped and recombined under controlled conditions. We instantiate this framework across DeliveryBench, ALFRED, MiniGrid, and RoboTHOR, and analyze reasoning, memory, reflection, and reinforcement-learning modules across model backbones. Our results show that agent performance is governed by scaffold compatibility and interaction effects rather than isolated module strength. In particular, structured multi-granularity memory improves long-horizon state tracking, reasoning and memory interact non-uniformly across environments, reflection trades off correction and cost, and RL-trained policies compose best when optimized with deployment-time scaffold structure. AgentSpec provides a controlled foundation for studying, comparing, and designing composable LLM agents. Our code, baselines and interactive playground are publicly available at https://agentspec-embodied.github.io.

03.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-11

The Dynamics of Human and AI-Generated Language: How Semantics Fluctuates across Different Timescales

Spoken language, whether produced by humans or large language models (LLM), unfolds over time with varying semantic content. However, we still lack simple, interpretable time-series features that capture how generic versus specific content is distributed over time, and that can be used to compare human and AI-generated speech. We introduce a semantic-timescale analysis pipeline that turns word-level transcripts with timestamps into semantic time-series. For each spoken narrative, we compute (i) semantic specificity using WordNet-based word depth and (ii) contextual similarity using SBERT embeddings and quantify their temporal dependence using autocorrelation-window measures (ACW-0 and related metrics). We then compare original speech to multiple shuffled controls that selectively disrupt lexical identity, temporal order, and word duration. Across human-read autobiographical narratives, TTS readings, and LLM-generated texts rendered with TTS, we find that segments with longer ACW-0 in the semantic time-series tend to contain more generic vocabulary, whereas segments with shorter ACW-0 are enriched in more specific words. These associations are strongly attenuated or abolished when word order and timing are randomized, indicating that ACW-based measures capture non-trivial temporal organization of semantic content beyond static lexical distributions. Our results suggest that ACW-based semantic timescales are a useful family of features for analyzing and comparing the temporal structure of human and AI-generated speech.

04.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-11

Prediction-Powered Risk Monitoring of Deployed Models for Detecting Harmful Distribution Shifts

arXiv:2602.02229v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We study the problem of monitoring model performance in dynamic environments where labeled data are limited. To this end, we propose prediction-powered risk monitoring (PPRM), a semi-supervised risk-monitoring approach based on prediction-powered inference (PPI). PPRM constructs anytime-valid lower bounds on the running risk by combining synthetic labels with a small set of true labels. Harmful shifts are detected via a threshold-based comparison with an upper bound on the nominal risk, satisfying assumption-free finite-sample guarantees on the type-I error. We demonstrate the effectiveness of PPRM through extensive experiments on image classification, large language model (LLM), and telecommunications monitoring tasks.

05.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-15

Scalable estimation of temporal clustering in accelerometry: a kernel-independent dispersion index grounded in the Hawkes process

Background. Self-exciting (Hawkes) point processes are a natural model for the temporal clustering of human physical activity (PA) recorded by accelerometers, yet they have seldom been used in this setting—in part because the usual maximum-likelihood fitting is challenging due to potential estimation bias and convergence failures on these data. A moment-based alternative—estimating the Hawkes branching ratio from the dispersion index, the variance-to-mean ratio of event counts—is kernel-independent and computationally trivial, but it has not been evaluated for accelerometry or adapted to the intensity-marked recordings accelerometers provide. Methods. Treating each minute above a sedentary threshold as an event, we estimated the Hawkes branching ratio $n$ by maximum likelihood and, as a kernel-independent and far cheaper alternative, from the dispersion index. We compared four dispersion-based estimators—event-count-based, intensity-mark-weighted using the mark-moment ratio, and time-of-day (TOD) adjusted variants of each—against the marked and unmarked maximum-likelihood estimates. Estimators were evaluated for mutual agreement, goodness of fit, and finite-window results in two National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) accelerometry cohorts (hip-worn, $n=2{,}560$; wrist-worn, $n=3{,}132$). We related the resulting temporal clustering measures to all-cause mortality using survey-weighted Cox models, adjusting for PA frequency, Peak30 (the average of the 30 highest PA values), and demographic covariates. Results. Event-count-based dispersion estimates agreed strongly with maximum-likelihood branching ratios ($rapprox0.74$ in both cohorts); the intensity-marked variant incorporating PA intensity variability agreed less well. Marked and unmarked Hawkes models yielded similar excitation and decay parameters, suggesting PA intensity added little clustering information beyond event timing. In the survival analysis, temporal clustering was associated with all-cause mortality independently of PA frequency and Peak30; the direction of association differed between the hip- and wrist-worn cohorts. Conclusions. A scalable dispersion-index estimator recovers the Hawkes branching ratio and matches maximum-likelihood estimates without requiring kernel specification or iterative optimization. It offers a practical tool for quantifying temporal clustering in accelerometry, enabling decomposition of temporal PA patterns into its exogenous initiation and endogenous persistence. Such temporal patterns carry health-relevant information beyond PA intensity and volume. Keywords: dispersion index; Hawkes process; branching ratio; temporal clustering; point process estimation; accelerometry; mortality

06.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-17

Robustness of Similarity-based Positional Encoding Under Rotations: Theoretical Analysis and Experimental Validation

Positional encoding is a fundamental component of Transformer architectures, as it injects information about the spatial or sequential arrangement of inputs. Among recent alternatives to standard absolute and sinusoidal encodings, similarity-based positional encoding (simPE) has emerged as a flexible framework for representing positional structure through pairwise relations. simPE was originally designed for medical imaging applications, where geometric robustness is especially relevant: small rotations naturally arise during image acquisition, induced by imaging instruments, patient positioning, or slight acquisition misalignments. Despite its empirical promise, the theoretical behavior of simPE under geometric perturbations has not been fully characterized. In this paper, we study the robustness of simPE with respect to rotations, combining formal theoretical analysis with experimental validation. We first show that simPE is generally not rotation-invariant. We then prove that, under mild Lipschitz assumptions on the elementary components, simPE is stable under rotational perturbations and derive explicit perturbation bounds in Frobenius norm. We validate these findings experimentally on four controlled datasets–a synthetic Arrow dataset, a synthetic Shapes dataset (four geometric shape categories), a synthetic Digits dataset, and a benchmark image classification dataset (FashionMNIST)–in which training and validation images are kept in a fixed canonical orientation while test images are subjected to increasing rotation angles. Across all datasets, simPE consistently outperforms standard learned positional encoding in terms of accuracy, F1 score, precision, and recall under rotation, particularly in the small-to-moderate angle regime, corroborating the theoretical stability guarantees.

07.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-24

Accurate computation of the energy variance and $\langle\langle \mathcal{L}^\dagger \mathcal{L} \rangle\rangle$ using iPEPS

arXiv:2511.22669v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Infinite projected entangled-pair states (iPEPS) provide a powerful tensor network ansatz for two-dimensional quantum many-body systems in the thermodynamic limit. In this paper we introduce an approach to accurately compute the energy variance of an iPEPS, enabling systematic extrapolations of the ground-state energy to the exact zero-variance limit. It is based on the contraction of a large cell of tensors using the corner transfer matrix renormalization group (CTRMG) method, to evaluate the correlator between pairs of local Hamiltonian terms. We show that the accuracy of this approach is substantially higher than that of previous methods, and we demonstrate the usefulness of variance extrapolation for the Heisenberg model, for a free fermionic model, and for the Shastry-Sutherland model. Finally, we apply the approach to compute $\langle \langle \mathcal{L}^\dagger \mathcal{L} \rangle \rangle$ for an open quantum system described by the Liouvillian $\mathcal{L}$, in order to assess the quality of the steady-state solution and to locate first-order phase transitions, using the dissipative quantum Ising model as an example.

08.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-25

Towards Continuous Power Forecasting: Practical Continual Learning for Real-World Energy Systems in Nonstationary Time Series

arXiv:2606.24955v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Power forecasting models deployed in real-world energy markets must operate under nonstationary conditions, where data distributions continually evolve due to weather variability, infrastructure upgrades, and changing consumption behaviors. In practice, these models face strict operational constraints: historical data may be limited or unavailable for repeated retraining, and uninterrupted long-term service is often required. This paper addresses these challenges by proposing the paradigm of Continuous Power Forecasting, which views power forecasting as a continual learning problem rather than a static offline task. Based on an adaptive continual learning framework for regression, we systematically investigate the practical effectiveness of six representative continual learning approaches from three methodological categories. These approaches are evaluated under different realistic assumptions regarding data accessibility and update policies. Experimental validation on real-world power datasets demonstrates that continual learning enables forecasting models to self-adapt to distributional drift, accumulate knowledge over time, and mitigate catastrophic forgetting without relying on large-scale historical data storage. Beyond performance gains, our study provides practical insights into the stability and adaptation behaviors of different continual learning approaches under realistic operational constraints. Overall, this work illustrates how continual learning can be pragmatically integrated into industrial power forecasting pipelines, offering a scalable and sustainable solution for long-term deployment in dynamic environments.

09.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-25

LibEvoBench: Probing Temporal Knowledge Stratification in Code Generation Models

arXiv:2606.25402v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large software projects often depend on older versions of libraries, even as APIs continue to evolve across releases. This creates a challenge for LLMs: they must maintain knowledge of multiple API versions, not merely the latest or most common one. However, current LLMs are trained on temporally mixed corpora and lack explicit mechanisms for such version-specific reasoning, leading to anachronistic errors - calling APIs as they exist in a different library version. To systematically evaluate this phenomenon, we introduce LibEvoBench, a multi-task benchmark spanning multiple versions of widely used Python libraries, along with a new metric, the Software Evolution Understanding Score (SEUS), to measure models' consistency when working with evolving APIs. Our results show that state-of-the-art models are largely version-oblivious: performance degrades for evolving APIs, while for stable APIs it remains the same across versions. Moreover, simply specifying the target version provides no benefit, while relevant documentation significantly boosts models' accuracy. These findings highlight a systematic limitation of current training paradigms and motivate new approaches for temporally grounded knowledge in code generation.

10.
Science (Express) 2026-05-06

A 481-meter-high landslide-tsunami in a cruise ship–frequented Alaska fjord | Science

Authors: Unknown Author

Early in the morning of 10 August 2025, a >64 × 10 6 m 3 landslide struck Tracy Arm fjord in Alaska. The landslide was preconditioned by glacial retreat caused by climate change. The resulting 481 m runup megatsunami followed an initial 100-m-high breaking wave traveling >70 m s −1 . The landslide was preceded by several days of microseismicity, which increased in rate and magnitude until ~1 hour before failure. The landslide produced globally observed long-period seismic waves equivalent in size to a M5.4 earthquake. A long-period (~66 s) global seismic signal, produced by a landslide-induced seiche trapped within the fjord, persisted for up to 36 hours, the second time a days-long seiche has been thus observed. With fjord regions increasingly visited by cruise ships, and climate change making similar events more likely, this unanticipated, near-miss event highlights the growing risk from landslides and tsunamis in coastal environments.

11.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-25

Spin-Momentum Impedance and Filtering by a Spin-Coupled Absorbing Boundary Condition

arXiv:2606.25650v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Absorbing boundaries are often treated as scalar sinks. Here we show that a spin-coupled absorbing boundary for a Pauli particle acts instead as a spin–momentum impedance. Its tangential boundary symbol has two branches, $i\kappa\pm|\boldsymbol{\xi}|$, coupling normal absorption to in-plane momentum. In a harmonic guide, the transverse ground state samples $|\boldsymbol{\xi}|\sim \ell_\perp^{-1}\sim\sqrt{\omega}$; narrowing the guide therefore strengthens a local evanescent boundary response without introducing a bulk potential barrier. Solving the detector-present spinor absorbing-boundary evolution, we identify boundary-induced filtering: the prompt detector flux is suppressed, the fixed-window detected fraction is reduced, and a delayed oscillatory sector appears. Over that window the restricted mean detection time is fitted by $A+B\sqrt{\omega}$, with setup-dependent coefficients. The robust result is a spin–momentum filtering mechanism with boundary scale $|\boldsymbol{\xi}|\sim\sqrt{\omega}$, not a universal arrival-time law.

12.
PLOS Computational Biology 2026-06-05

A multiscale, Bayesian inference approach to augment mechanistic models of cell signaling with machine-learning predictions of binding affinity

by Holly A. Huber, Stacey D. Finley Computational models in systems biology are often underdetermined—that is, there is little data relative to the complexity and size of the model. This lack of data is primarily due to limits in our ability to observe specific biological systems and restricts the utility of computational models. To reduce this uncertainty, recent methods have explored augmenting parameter inference of systems biology models with predictions from machine learning models. Such approaches expand the pool of data that is applicable for the inference problem. Here, we explore augmenting the parameter inference of intracellular signaling models. We choose to investigate signaling because experimental measurements of the variables of interest, protein dynamics, are still quite limited. To investigate, we propose a novel, multiscale, Bayesian inference approach that augments traditional signaling data with predictions of binding affinity. These predictions are generated using a machine learning pipeline with measurements of amino acid sequence, from the Universal Protein Resource, or protein structure, from the Protein Data Bank, as inputs. We find that we can successfully integrate these measurements into the inference problem using our novel framework. Excitingly, this integration significantly improves the parameter estimates of signaling models. We demonstrate that how much this improvement impacts predictions of signaling depends on the sensitivity of the prediction to perturbations in the parameter values. Overall, the framework we establish here improves the parameter inference of intracellular signaling models by successfully bridging data on protein sequence and structure with systems-level signaling.

13.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19

Humanoid Everyday: A Comprehensive Robotic Dataset for Open-World Humanoid Manipulation

arXiv:2510.08807v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: From loco-motion to dextrous manipulation, humanoid robots have made remarkable strides in demonstrating complex full-body capabilities. However, the majority of current robot learning datasets and benchmarks mainly focus on stationary robot arms, and the few existing humanoid datasets are either confined to fixed environments or limited in task diversity, often lacking human-humanoid interaction and lower-body locomotion. Moreover, there are a few standardized evaluation platforms for benchmarking learning-based policies on humanoid data. In this work, we present Humanoid Everyday, a large-scale and diverse humanoid manipulation dataset characterized by extensive task variety involving dextrous object manipulation, human-humanoid interaction, locomotion-integrated actions, and more. Leveraging a highly efficient human-supervised teleoperation pipeline, Humanoid Everyday aggregates high-quality multimodal sensory data, including RGB, depth, LiDAR, and tactile inputs, together with natural language annotations, comprising 10.3k trajectories and over 3 million frames of data across 260 tasks across 7 broad categories. In addition, we conduct an analysis of representative policy learning methods on our dataset, providing insights into their strengths and limitations across different task categories. For standardized evaluation, we introduce a cloud-based evaluation platform that allows researchers to seamlessly deploy their policies in our controlled setting and receive performance feedback. By releasing Humanoid Everyday along with our policy learning analysis and a standardized cloud-based evaluation platform, we intend to advance research in general-purpose humanoid manipulation and lay the groundwork for more capable and embodied robotic agents in real-world scenarios. Our dataset, data collection code, and cloud evaluation website are made publicly available on our project website.

14.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-15

Hybrid Uncertainty Sensitivity Analysis Based on the HSIC for High-Dimensional Responses with Aleatory–Epistemic Separation

arXiv:2606.14053v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Quantifying the influence of hybrid aleatory and epistemic uncertainties on high-dimensional system responses remains a major challenge in global sensitivity analysis (GSA). Existing Hilbert–Schmidt Independence Criterion (HSIC)-based approaches are primarily restricted to single-output settings and lack a rigorous decomposition of heterogeneous uncertainty sources and their interactions. To address this limitation, a novel double-space tensor-product RKHS framework is proposed for sensitivity analysis under hybrid uncertainty. By constructing factorized kernels over both the latent input space and the multidimensional output space, a concurrent double Möbius inversion is derived to orthogonally decompose the global dependence measure into pure aleatory effects, pure epistemic effects, and their interaction contributions. The resulting dimension-wise sensitivity indices preserve the uncertainty attribution structure across all output dimensions. To satisfy the independence assumptions required by the decomposition, an auxiliary-variable representation based on the inverse probability integral transform is introduced, enabling the treatment of hierarchical uncertainties and Copula-induced correlations within a unified latent space. A fully vectorized single-loop implementation is further developed to avoid the computational burden of nested Monte Carlo simulation. Statistical significance and estimation uncertainty are quantified through permutation testing and Bootstrap confidence intervals. Numerical studies on a modified multi-output Ishigami function and an aerodynamic pressure-field problem demonstrate the accuracy, scalability, and practical applicability of the proposed framework.

15.
PLOS Medicine 2026-06-24

Cardiovascular outcomes and safety associated with statin therapy for primary prevention in older adults with type 2 diabetes: A target trial emulation study

Authors:

by Linda Chan, Wanchun Xu, Esther W. Y. Chan, Eric Yuk Fai Wan Background There is limited evidence on the use of statins for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in older adults with type 2 diabetes due to underrepresentation of this population in randomized controlled trials (RCTs). We aimed to determine the effectiveness and safety of statin therapy for primary CVD prevention among type 2 diabetes patients aged ≥75 years. Methods and findings In this cohort study, territory-wide electronic health records (EHRs) from the Hospital Authority Clinical Management System in Hong Kong were used to emulate a sequence of nested target trials. Eligible patients were included in a rolling basis in each calendar month from January 2009 to December 2015, and thus we emulated 84 ‘nested monthly trials’. In each monthly trial, all type 2 diabetes patients aged ≥60 years with elevated low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (≥2.6 mmol/L) in the baseline calendar month were included; patients with a history of type 1 diabetes, CVDs, cancers, muscle-related disorders, or liver dysfunction were excluded from analysis. Eligible individuals were classified into statin initiators or noninitiators based on whether they initiated statin therapy at the time of enrollment. They were categorized into various age groups (60–74, 75–84, ≥85 years) for analysis, with those aged 60–74 years forming a benchmark group to test the validity of the emulated target trial. Patients were followed up until the outcome of interest, death, or the administrative end (December 2018), whichever occurred first. We estimated hazard ratios (HRs) comparing statin use versus nonuse for CVDs, all-cause mortality, muscle-related adverse events (AEs), and liver dysfunction using pooled logistic models, with inverse probability weighting to adjust for time-varying confounders related to treatment adherence, under the assumption of no unmeasured confounding. Propensity score matching was performed on eligible person-trials at baseline, incorporating demographic characteristics, clinical and laboratory parameters, comorbidities, medication history, and healthcare utilization as matching variables. Among 30,804 matched person-trials aged 75–84 years, a significant reduction in the incidence of CVDs (HR 0.69 (95% CI [0.65, 0.75]; p 

16.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-15

CANN-EUCLID: unsupervised constitutive artificial neural network model discovery from full-field data

arXiv:2606.14565v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Constitutive artificial neural networks (CANNs) provide interpretable material model discovery, but have so far been used in stress-supervised settings based on apparent stress-strain data from homogeneous tests. Because each test samples only a narrow loading path and provides homogenized rather than local stress information, robust discovery typically requires multiple loading modes to constrain the multidimensional response. This is challenging for soft biological tissues, where repeated testing, damage, and sample variability limit reliable information from a single specimen. Here, we combine CANNs with the stress-unsupervised full-field discovery framework EUCLID to identify sparse hyperelastic laws directly from displacement fields and reaction forces in one heterogeneity-inducing loading case. CANN-EUCLID minimizes equilibrium imbalance with sparsity-promoting regularization selecting compact active terms, without local stress measurements or a prescribed law. We evaluate the approach on isotropic and anisotropic benchmarks with prescribed ground-truth laws. When the ground truth is representable by the chosen CANN basis, our method recovers the correct terms with near-exact accuracy, including exponential terms with embedded parameters. When it is not contained in the basis, the method retains shared terms and approximates missing contributions using available basis functions. Generalization depends strongly on sampled deformation states: exponential strain-stiffening terms can be recovered accurately when sufficiently probed, but can produce large extrapolation errors when the stiffening regime lies outside the sampled domain. Forward FE validation simulations show that the discovered behavior accurately replicates the ground truth. These results establish stress-unsupervised CANN discovery as a promising framework for interpretable full-field constitutive model identification.

17.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-12

DIMOS: Disentangling Instance-level Moving Object Segmentation

Moving instance segmentation (MIS) attracts increasing attention due to its broad applications in traffic surveillance, autonomous driving, and animal tracking. Event cameras record asynchronous brightness changes, providing high temporal resolution and dynamic range, which makes them highly sensitive to motion information. By fusing event and image features, motion cues from events can complement spatial details from images, enhancing the performance of MIS. However, current multimodal MIS methods still struggle to segment small moving instances, as event cameras often yield sparse features under limited resolution. Moreover, event features entangle appearance attributes with motion cues, which further restricts effective cross-modal fusion. To address these challenges, we first propose a dual-disentangling feature extraction framework that separates and extracts appearance and motion information within both image and event modalities, thereby improving feature density. Subsequently, a multi-granularity cross-modal alignment is introduced to align distributionally and semantically consistent features across modalities, enabling more effective fusion with rich spatial and temporal details. The experiment results demonstrate that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance in multimodal MIS, especially for small instances under challenging conditions such as fast motion and low-light settings.

18.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

Label Shift Aware Adaptation for Online Zero-shot Learning with Contrastive Language-Image Pre-Training (CLIP)

Vision-language models like Contrastive Language-Image Pre-Training (CLIP) have been extensively studied in data-scarce scenarios. A particularly challenging and realistic task in this area is online zero-shot learning with CLIP, where unknown test samples are predicted sequentially in random order by CLIP while keeping the feature extraction and model parameters fixed during the sequential inference phase. Most existing approaches in this setting address the problem by adapting representations online using incoming test samples, while neglecting the distribution of the data on which CLIP was initially trained. This mismatch can lead to degraded performance when the label distribution in the test data differs from that of the training domain. To address this gap, we propose Label Shift Aware (LSA), which formulates the online zero-shot classification task as a domain adaptation problem. Specifically, LSA adapts the predictions computed by CLIP, which was trained on an unknown source distribution, to a target distribution using only unlabeled test data, and applies label shift correction to mitigate the mismatch between the source and target domains. The extensive experiments across multiple datasets demonstrate that the proposed LSA consistently outperforms state-of-the-art online zero-shot learning methods based on CLIP.

19.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Beyond Defensive Reporting: Machine Learning for Active Anti-Money Laundering Control in Insurance

arXiv:2606.16663v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Money laundering through insurance claims poses a threat to insurers both through fraudulent payouts and reputational and regulatory risk. Despite this, little research has examined how such laundering can be prevented. This paper examines whether machine learning can help insurers flag suspicious claims before payout, shifting the focus from passive reporting to active prevention. Using production data from a major Norwegian insurer, we train gradient-boosted decision tree models to detect claims later reported to authorities for suspected money laundering. Because fraud and laundering may share behavioural patterns, we also examine whether insurance fraud labels can serve as an auxiliary training signal. We compare different learning setups using the Budget-Weighted Capture Rate, a metric introduced in this paper to measure how many laundering cases are captured when only a small share of claims can be manually reviewed. The results show that incorporating fraud-related investigation labels substantially improves laundering detection. The best-performing model captures nearly two-thirds of laundering cases within the top-ranked 2 to 6 percent of claims selected for investigation. To our knowledge, this is the first empirical study of machine learning for money laundering detection in insurance claims.

20.
Nature (Science) 2026-06-24

Small-molecule modulation of β-arrestins

β-Arrestins are multifunctional regulators of G-protein-coupled receptor (GPCR) signalling and orchestrate diverse downstream signalling events and physiological responses across the GPCR superfamily1–3. Although GPCR pharmacology has advanced to target orthosteric and allosteric sites, as well as G proteins and GPCR kinases, direct chemical tools to modulate β-arrestin activities have remained conspicuously absent. Here we report the identification of small-molecule inhibitors that selectively target β-arrestins and delineate their mechanism of action through integrated pharmacological, biochemical, biophysical and structural analyses. These inhibitors disrupt β-arrestin engagement with agonist-activated GPCRs, impairing desensitization, internalization and β-arrestin-dependent physiological functions while sparing G protein–receptor coupling. Cryo-electron microscopy, molecular dynamics simulations and structure-guided mutagenesis reveal that one modulator, Cmpd-5, engages a pocket within the central crest of β-arrestin1 formed by the middle, C and lariat loops, a critical receptor-binding interface, stabilizing a distinct conformation that is incompatible with full β-arrestin–receptor engagement. Together, these findings establish a mechanistic framework for β-arrestin modulation, reveal a novel allosteric site for structure-based drug design, and open new avenues for transducer-targeted, pathway-specific GPCR therapeutic agents. Integrated pharmacological, biochemical, biophysical and structural analyses of small-molecule β-arrestin inhibitors show how they block β-arrestin engagement with activated GPCRs, revealing their mechanism of action and uncovering a previously unrecognized allosteric regulatory site.

21.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

Cognitive Debt: AI as Intellectual Leverage and the Dynamics of Systemic Fragility

Authors:

arXiv:2606.15078v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We develop a formal theory of cognitive debt: the stock of unverified reasoning obligations that accumulates when individuals use AI as a substitute rather than a complement for first-principles cognition. The model features two state variables per agent, cognitive capital and cognitive debt, and a multiplicative production technology in which cognitive capital functions as collateral that determines the return to AI adoption. We establish six propositions. Rational agents incur positive cognitive debt because the costs are deferred, partially external, and masked by short-run productivity gains. Tranquil periods lower subjective risk assessments, raise AI substitution intensity, and compound leverage, generating a cognitive Minsky moment in which subjective risk falls while true systemic fragility rises. Expected crisis losses are convex in aggregate leverage. Post-crisis, output-target pressure can produce a false-correction loop in which agents patch AI failures with more AI. The decentralised equilibrium over-adopts substitutive AI relative to the social optimum because of systemic risk, cognitive public goods, and arms-race externalities. In a two-type heterogeneous-agent economy, high-cognitive-capital agents adopt AI more intensively and may eventually erode their unaided cognitive capital below that of initially lower-skilled agents.

22.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-12

Order-Based Bayesian Network Modeling of Early Detection and Post-Diagnosis Control for Cardiovascular Disease Risk in Type 2 Diabetes

Patients diagnosed with type 2 diabetes (T2D) are at increased risk of developing cardiovascular disease (CVD), the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in this population. Early detection and glycemic control within the first year after diagnosis reduce CVD risk. However, gaps remain in how to operationalize early detection of T2D using Electronic Health Record (EHR) data and quantify its relationship with subsequent CVD risk using longitudinal observations. We developed a probabilistic graph model to analyze the interdependencies between early detection of T2D, post-diagnosis glycemic control, and CVD occurrence. Using a temporally structured Bayesian Network (BN) learned from EHR data of 9,450 primary care patients between 2017 and 2023, we quantified probabilistic dependencies between demographics, diagnostic delay surrogates, glycemic control, and post-diagnosis CVD occurrence. Percentile based thresholds defined risk groups, where individuals with predicted probabilities in the bottom decile ([≤] 10th percentile) were classified as low risk, and those in the top decile ([≥] 90th percentile) as high risk. Results demonstrated heterogeneity in predicted risks across glycemic and cardiovascular outcomes. Predicted probability of developing CVD within the first year after T2D diagnosis ranged from a mean of 5.2% in the low-risk group to 28.9% in the high-risk group, while predicted probabilities of mean Hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) [≥] 8% during the first year post-diagnosis ranged from 1.6% in low-risk to 55.1% in high-risk group. Patients with HbA1c at diagnosis [≥] 8% had higher predicted probabilities of first-year post-diagnosis mean HbA1c [≥] 8% (53.3% vs. 1.9%) and high HbA1c coefficient of variation (18.7% vs. 3.1%) compared with those with HbA1c [≤] 6.5%. Incorporating early clinical outcomes refined later risk predictions, with long-term CVD risk reaching 33.5% among high-risk individuals. The proposed model achieved predictive performance comparable to conventional machine learning approaches while providing interpretable relationships for risk stratification in primary care populations.

23.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-19

S2D2: Fast Decoding for Diffusion LLMs via Training-Free Self-Speculation

Block-diffusion language models offer a promising path toward faster-than-autoregressive generation by combining block-wise autoregressive decoding with within-block parallel denoising. However, in the few-step regime needed for practical acceleration, standard confidence-thresholded decoding is often brittle: aggressive thresholds hurt quality, while conservative thresholds require unnecessary denoising steps. Existing approaches that address this issue either require additional training or incur extra test-time compute. We present S2D2, a training-free self-speculative decoding framework for block-diffusion language models. Our key observation is that a block-diffusion model becomes autoregressive when the block size is reduced to one, allowing the same pretrained model to act as both drafter and verifier. S2D2 inserts a speculative verification step into standard block-diffusion decoding and uses lightweight routing policies to decide when verification is worth its cost. This yields a hybrid decoding trajectory in which diffusion proposes tokens in parallel, while the autoregressive mode acts as a local sequence-level critic. Across three mainstream block-diffusion families, S2D2 consistently improves the accuracy-speed tradeoff over strong confidence-thresholding baselines. On SDAR, we observe up to $4.7\times$ speedup over autoregressive decoding, and up to $1.57\times$ over a tuned dynamic decoding baseline while improving accuracy by up to $4.5$ points. On LLaDA2.1-Mini, S2D2 remains complementary to built-in self-correction, including a conservative setting where it is $4.4\times$ faster than the static baseline with slightly higher accuracy.

24.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

Evaluation of Alternative-Based Information Systems for Deliberative Polling using an Agentic Simulator

arXiv:2606.11692v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Deliberative polling promises to improve collective decision-making by exposing shareholders to a broad range of arguments before they vote. Yet ensuring that every voter encounters a representative sample of the reason space, the coverage problem, remains an open challenge, particularly at scale and in adversarial or strategically motivated electorates. This paper introduces a way of evaluating solutions using the LLM-based Agentic Bipolar Argumentation Simulator, grounded in a framework which formalises a poll as a six-tuple of endorsing and opposing justifications, attack and enhance relations, and shareholder- and relation-weights. ABAS simulates N autonomous shareholder agents, each assigned a latent opinion according to desired distributions in [-1, 1], who sequentially vote, choose or author justifications, and optionally submit argumentation-graph links. The simulator implements recommendations that rank existing justifications by their observable endorsement mass. It evaluates the mechanism's success by coverage, namely the fraction of the corpus reason-tag set represented in the K recommendations presented to each shareholder, as a solution to the NP-hard Subsuming Justification Problem. Reported experiments characterise how creativity rate (pown), recommendation size (K), argumentation density (plinks), and population size (N) affect coverage and corpus diversity. In an authenticated electorate where Sybil attacks are impossible and only the relation graph is gameable, we stress-test the scoring with coordinated strategic voting attacks: a tag-flood attack collapses coverage, while author-count relation weighting through a reversed-PageRank rule resists the flood markedly better than uniform weights.

25.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

A Compositional Framework for Open-ended Intelligence

arXiv:2606.15386v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Open-ended intelligence is the capacity to adapt to novel problems and environments that are substantially different from those in training. We formalize open-ended intelligence as the closure induced by a finite primitive set \(P\) and a set of composition operators \(C\). We characterize properties of the induced closure \(\mathcal{L}(P,C)\) that support unbounded compositional generation across families of tasks and worlds. A mathematics of open-ended intelligence requires two pillars: a minimal set of representational primitives (e.g., states, actions) and algorithmic primitives (e.g., nearest neighbor), together with composition motifs (e.g., recursion, sequencing) that reflect an acquired compositional grammar. The closure of these two pillars enables the generation of infinite adaptive responses across a wide range of settings. The mathematics supports complementary research agendas, including evaluation metrics for explanation and interpretability, as well as building architectures where compositional generalization is native. We propose next primitive prediction as a novel architectural objective, where the training objective encourages the acquisition of reusable algorithmic primitives and their compositional grammar, such that new solutions are generated through recombination. Curriculum learning and self-play enable lifelong learning and expansion of the closure by discovering reusable primitives and transition motifs across families of tasks and worlds. We ground the framework through case studies in physics, evolution, and neuroscience.