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01.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

The Machine Learning Approach to Moment Closure Relations for Plasma: A Review

arXiv:2511.22486v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: The requirement for large-scale global simulations of plasma is an ongoing challenge in both space and laboratory plasma physics. Any simulation based on a fluid model inherently requires a closure relation for the high order plasma moments. This review compiles and analyses the recent surge of machine learning approaches developing improved plasma closure models capable of capturing kinetic phenomena within plasma fluid models. We survey two methodological families: neural-network surrogates (from multilayer perceptrons to Fourier neural operators, the latter recently reproducing both linear and non-linear Landau damping online within a fluid solver) and equation-discovery methods such as sparse regression; and organise the studies by whether they are tested offline against reference data or online within a time-evolving solver. We outline the challenges associated with machine-learning closures, including off-diagonal pressure-tensor accuracy, generalisation beyond the training distribution, and stable integration into large-scale simulations, and the directions future research might take to address them.

02.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-18

From Concept-Aligned Tokens to Vulnerable Features: Mechanistic Localization of Jailbreaks

Jailbreak attacks expose a persistent failure mode in safety-aligned LLMs: models can be pushed into harmful behavior, but the internal representations enabling this shift remain poorly localized. Recent mechanistic safety studies often explain such behavior through broad representational objects, including global refusal directions, activation steering vectors, and refusal-related SAE features. We instead ask whether jailbreak vulnerability can be traced to finer-grained, prompt-conditioned SAE feature subgroups. We introduce a token-driven mechanistic pipeline that decomposes the residual stream of Gemma-2-2B into Sparse Autoencoder (SAE) features and identifies feature subgroups associated with unsafe behavior. Using single-category unsafe examples from BeaverTails to reduce cross-category interference, we extract harmful concepts from adversarial responses and align them with concept-relevant prompt tokens through subspace similarity. We then apply three feature-grouping strategies: cluster-based, hierarchical-linkage, and single-token-driven, to identify SAE feature subgroups across all 26 layers. Finally, we amplify the top features in each subgroup and evaluate the resulting generations with a standardized harmfulness judge. Single-token-driven grouping achieves harmfulness comparable to full cluster-based grouping, showing that individual harmful prompt tokens are sufficient to localize vulnerability-relevant SAE feature subgroups without relying on broader cluster-level aggregation. These subgroups appear across early and mid-to-late layers, with stronger concentration in mid-to-late layers, where targeted steering exposes specific model vulnerabilities. Overall, our results suggest that jailbreak susceptibility can be traced to sparse, token-localized SAE feature subgroups, complementing prior accounts based on broad adversarial, refusal, or steering directions.

03.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-24

Poster: Exploring the Limits of Audio-Based Detection of Turkish Phone Call Scams

Scam phone calls exploit vulnerable communities worldwide, yet research on detection has focused almost exclusively on English and other high-resource languages. In low-resource settings such as Turkish, detection is especially difficult, as annotated data is scarce and technological defenses remain limited. This research investigates how large language models (LLMs) can support scam detection in Turkish by introducing the first public multi-modal dataset of 100 aligned audio-transcript pairs of scam and benign conversations. We evaluate seven LLMs spanning three model families: Gemini 2.5 (Flash, Flash-Lite, Pro), GPT-4o, and Qwen (Max, Plus, Turbo), under three input conditions: raw audio, automatic speech-to-text transcripts, and transcripts refined by a native speaker. Our results suggest that transcript-based inputs consistently outperform direct audio processing, while human-corrected and uncorrected transcripts perform comparably. By centering a low-resource language and real world threat, this work highlights the urgent need for culturally and linguistically inclusive AI safety research and more robust multi-modal systems for fraud prevention.

04.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

Competition and Diversity in Generative AI

arXiv:2412.08610v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Recent evidence, both in the lab and in the wild, suggests that the use of generative artificial intelligence reduces the diversity of content produced. The use of the same or similar AI models appears to lead to more homogeneous behavior. Our work begins with the observation that there is a force pushing in the opposite direction: competition. When producers compete with one another (e.g., for customers or attention), they are incentivized to create novel or unique content. We explore the impact competition has on both content diversity and overall social welfare. Through a formal game-theoretic model, we show that competitive markets select for diverse AI models, mitigating monoculture. We further show that a generative AI model that performs well in isolation (i.e., according to a benchmark) may fail to provide value in a competitive market. Our results highlight the importance of evaluating generative AI models across the breadth of their output distributions, particularly when they will be deployed in competitive environments. We validate our results empirically by using language models to play Scattergories, a word game in which players are rewarded for answers that are both correct and unique. Overall, our results suggest that homogenization due to generative AI is unlikely to persist in competitive markets, and instead, competition in downstream markets may drive diversification in AI model development.

05.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-19

Holo-World: Unified Camera, Object and Weather Control for Video World Model

Video world models are moving toward preserving an observed world under controllable camera and object motion while allowing its environmental state to change. Yet these controls remain isolated, and weather generation typically relies on a source video or reconstructed scene that already specifies future structure. We study a first-frame-anchored source-to-state setting, where the model starts from a single image and follows explicit camera and object controls and an optional weather instruction, then generates a video that either preserves the source world or transfers it to a target weather state. To address these challenges, we first build HoloStateData, a state video dataset that turns diverse videos into unified control samples for camera, object, and weather supervision. Second, we introduce Holo-World, a unified controllable video world model that jointly controls scene from a single image. Its Unified Scene Adapter factorizes world preservation and weather transfer into distinct parameter subspaces, using rendered background, geometry buffers, and object controls to maintain controlled scene structure while modeling weather-dependent appearance and particle effects. Additionally, Scene-Weather Decomposed CFG guides scene and weather residuals separately, strengthening target weather effects without over-amplifying the full condition. Quantitative and qualitative experiments demonstrate that Holo-World maintains precise camera and object control with consistent scene structure while transferring scenes into diverse target weather state, outperforming video-to-video weather editing baselines on weather-state generation. Our project page is available at \url{https://xiangchenyin.github.io/Holo-World/}.

06.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-15

When the Tool Decides: LLM Agents Defer Blindly to Graph Neural Network Tools, and Stronger Backbones Defer More

arXiv:2606.14476v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: A growing line of work equips large language model (LLM) agents with graph neural networks (GNNs) as callable tools, assuming the agent exercises judgment over when and how much to rely on such a tool. We test this directly. We expose a frozen GNN to a ReAct-style LLM agent as an explicit tool and measure, on node classification over a text-attributed graph (ogbn-arxiv, replicated on WikiCS), whether the agent uses the tool or merely obeys it. We find the agent does not exercise judgment: its predictions agree with the raw GNN's 97.6-99.2% of the time (5 seeds), collapsing into a GNN parrot that adopts the tool's output wholesale and bypasses its own reasoning. Sweeping backbone capability (Qwen2.5 0.5B-7B), the deference is not a weak-model artifact: among models able to invoke the tool, agreement rises with capability (0.60 to 0.98 from 1.5B to 7B). Crucially, the cost of deference does not shrink as capability grows and grows where alternatives emerge: a per-node oracle over the available actions beats the parrot by 0.09-0.18 at 3B and 0.12-0.22 at 7B, roughly doubling at high homophily, because the parrot is pinned to the frozen GNN while the agent's alternatives improve; at 7B a simple neighbour-label tool overtakes the GNN at high homophily (0.81 vs 0.71) yet the agent still defers. A simple selective-invocation gate recovers about half of that high-homophily gap (0.71 to 0.83) but yields no net global gain, and held-out estimates bound the best achievable gate over standard test-time features to at most a third of the oracle headroom: reliable selective invocation looks limited by available information, not merely router design. Our results are a cautionary measurement: evaluations of agent+tool systems cannot assume the agent adds judgment on top of the tool, and selective invocation must be designed in rather than expected to emerge from scale.

07.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-16

Noise-induced shallow circuits and absence of barren plateaus

arXiv:2403.13927v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Motivated by realistic hardware considerations of the pre-fault-tolerant era, we comprehensively study the impact of uncorrected noise on quantum circuits. We first show that in the task of estimating observable expectation values any noise truncates most quantum circuits to effectively logarithmic depth. We then prove that quantum circuits under any non-unital noise do not exhibit barren plateaus for cost functions composed of local observables. However, by using the effective shallowness, we also design an efficient classical algorithm to estimate observable expectation values within any constant additive accuracy, with high probability over the choice of the circuit, in any circuit architecture. Taken together, our results establish that, unless we carefully engineer quantum circuits to take advantage of the noise, noisy quantum circuits are unlikely to offer an advantage over shallow ones for algorithms that output observable expectation value estimates, such as many variational quantum machine learning proposals.

08.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-12

Recursive Agent Harnesses

Recursive language models (RLMs) showed that recursion over model calls is an effective strategy for long-context reasoning, and production coding agents have begun to write code that spawns subagents at scale, most recently in Anthropic's dynamic workflows. We name and study the pattern between these two lines of work, where the recursive unit is a full agent harness with filesystem tools, code execution, and planning rather than a model call with no tools. We call this the Recursive Agent Harness (RAH) and frame it as harness recursion, the code-first extension to the model recursion of RLMs. A parent agent generates and runs an executable script that spawns subagent harnesses in parallel for fine-grained workloads and uses structured function calls for small subtasks. We provide a controlled evaluation on long-context reasoning. With the backbone held fixed at GPT-5 to match the published Codex and RLM baselines, RAH improves the Codex coding-agent baseline from 71.75% to 81.36% on Oolong-Synthetic (199 samples, 13 context-length buckets up to 4M tokens), a gain attributable to the harness rather than the model. With a stronger backbone, Claude Sonnet 4.5, the same design reaches 89.77%.

09.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-19

Passive-User Bell-State Loop-Back Key Establishment without Quantum Detectors at the User Nodes

arXiv:2606.19551v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We propose and analyze a Bell-state extension of the Loop-Back quantum key distribution architecture for secret-key establishment between two passive users that do not require quantum transmitters or quantum detectors. In the proposed setting, a single active station, Alice, provides the entangled-state infrastructure, retains one qubit of an initially prepared Bell pair, and sends the traveling subsystem through two passive users, denoted by $B_1$ and $B_2$. Each passive user applies a local Pauli operation to the same traveling subsystem, so that the operation observed by Alice is only the effective composition $U_{\mathrm{eff}}=U_2U_1$. After the subsystem returns, Alice performs a Bell-state measurement and, using her private knowledge of the initial Bell state, deterministically identifies the effective Pauli operation. However, the individual factors $U_1$ and $U_2$ remain algebraically hidden from Alice whenever the local choices are uniformly and independently selected. The public effective operation acts as a parity-like constraint: each passive user can infer the operation applied by the other from its own private choice, while the active station learns only the global composition. This construction transfers the essential distributed-transformation mechanism of passive-user Loop-Back QKD to the entangled-state regime. Unlike single-qubit passive-user schemes, whose useful events are intrinsically post-selected, the Bell-state version is limited primarily by the success probability of the Bell-state measurement. We discuss the algebraic structure of the protocol, its interpretation as an infrastructure-assisted mediated key-establishment mechanism, and the physical assumptions required to protect passive Pauli modulators against active injection or Trojan-horse-type attacks.

10.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-15

Persuasion Index: A Theory-Guided Framework for Persuasion Analysis

Identifying persuasive rhetorical cues is critical across domains, from detecting information manipulation and improving AI safety to advancing public health communication. We propose Persuasion Index (PI), a taxonomy of 15 dimensions grounded in persuasion theories from psychology and communication, and one transparent implementation using 55 sub-features built from lexicons and rule-based detectors. The taxonomy is modular: individual detectors can be replaced while preserving the theoretical structure. By evaluating PI on four public datasets varying in domain, style, and outcome measures, we show that PI provides a shared feature space for interpreting rhetorical patterns associated with persuasion-related outcomes. Linear models show that PI features carry meaningful predictive signal while remaining computationally lightweight. Dimension-level analyses reveal recurring associations between PI dimensions and persuasion outcomes across datasets, while also highlighting topic- and stance-specific variation. We release PI as an open-source package and web interface for principled and auditable analysis of human and AI-mediated communication.

11.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-15

Trusted Uncertainty in Large Language Models: A Unified Framework for Confidence Calibration and Risk-Controlled Refusal

Deployed language models must decide not only what to answer but also when not to answer. We present UniCR, a unified framework that turns heterogeneous uncertainty evidence including sequence likelihoods, self-consistency dispersion, retrieval compatibility, and tool or verifier feedback into a calibrated probability of correctness and then enforces a user-specified error budget via principled refusal. UniCR learns a lightweight calibration head with temperature scaling and proper scoring, supports API-only models through black-box features, and offers distribution-free guarantees using conformal risk control. For long-form generation, we align confidence with semantic fidelity by supervising on atomic factuality scores derived from retrieved evidence, reducing confident hallucinations while preserving coverage. Experiments on short-form QA, code generation with execution tests, and retrieval-augmented long-form QA show consistent improvements in calibration metrics, lower area under the risk-coverage curve, and higher coverage at fixed risk compared to entropy or logit thresholds, post-hoc calibrators, and end-to-end selective baselines. Analyses reveal that evidence contradiction, semantic dispersion, and tool inconsistency are the dominant drivers of abstention, yielding informative user-facing refusal messages. The result is a portable recipe of evidence fusion to calibrated probability to risk-controlled decision that improves trustworthiness without fine-tuning the base model and remains valid under distribution shift.

12.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-11

Breaking Entropy Bounds: Accelerating RL Training via MTP with Rejection Sampling

Reinforcement learning (RL) has become a key component in modern large language models, yet the rollout stage remains the key bottleneck in RL training pipelines. Although Multi-Token Prediction (MTP) offers a natural solution to accelerate rollouts through speculative decoding, many studies have observed that MTP acceptance rates degrade significantly during RL training, leading to limited speedup performance. To address this bottleneck, we present Bebop, a systematic study of MTP in LLM post-training, and offer practical recipes to integrate MTP into large-scale RL pipelines. First, we reveal that the MTP acceptance rate is fundamentally bounded by the fluctuation of model entropy, which demonstrates a clear negative linear relationship with the rise of entropy in the RL stage. Second, we show that probabilistic rejection sampling largely alleviates the disturbance introduced by entropy in RL compared to greedy draft sampling. We further identify that the conventional MTP training objectives (cross-entropy or KL) are suboptimal in such settings, and therefore we propose a novel end-to-end TV loss that directly optimizes multi-step rejection sampling acceptance rate, yielding ~10% acceptance rate improvements, achieving up to 95% acceptance rates and up to 25% extra inference throughput gains across mathematical reasoning, code generation, and agentic tasks. Third, we test various online MTP training strategies during RL and show that pre-RL MTP training with e2e TV loss and rejection sampling achieves a consistent acceptance rate and speedup throughout the entire RL, eliminating the need for costly online MTP updating. We provide extensive experiments and analysis that validate our findings. Experimental results show our method achieves up to 1.8x end-to-end acceleration in async RL training of Qwen3.5, Qwen3.6, and Qwen3.7 models.

13.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-24

Testing quantum-like markers in neural dynamics

arXiv:2508.21490v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We propose two experiments for identifying quantum markers in neural data based on quantum variants of well-known equations for neural activity that describe electrical signal propagation on axonal arbors and dendrites. These include (i) testing if power spectra from subthreshold oscillations in neuronal cultures follow the classical Fitzgugh-Nagumo equations or a recently introduced quantum variant of them and (ii) testing if propagation statistics of electrical activity in axons follow the classical diffusive cable equation or a quantum variant of it.

14.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Imbalanced Semi-Supervised Learning via Label Refinement and Threshold Adjustment

arXiv:2407.05370v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Semi-supervised learning (SSL) algorithms often struggle to perform well when trained on imbalanced data. In such scenarios, the generated pseudo-labels tend to exhibit a bias toward the majority class, and models relying on these pseudo-labels can further amplify this bias. Existing imbalanced SSL algorithms explore pseudo-labeling strategies based on either pseudo-label refinement (PLR) or threshold adjustment (THA), aiming to mitigate the bias through heuristic-driven designs. However, through a careful statistical analysis, we find that existing strategies are suboptimal: most PLR algorithms are either overly empirical or rely on the unrealistic assumption that models remain well-calibrated throughout training, while most THA algorithms depend on flawed metrics for pseudo-label selection. To address these shortcomings, we first derive the theoretically optimal form of pseudo-labels under class imbalance. This foundation leads to our key contribution: SEmi-supervised learning with pseudo-label optimization based on VALidation data (SEVAL), a unified framework that learns both PLR and THA parameters from a class-balanced subset of training data. By jointly optimizing these components, SEVAL adapts to specific task requirements while ensuring per-class pseudo-label reliability. Our experiments demonstrate that SEVAL outperforms state-of-the-art SSL methods, producing more accurate and effective pseudo-labels across various imbalanced SSL scenarios while remaining compatible with diverse SSL algorithms. The code is publicly available (https://github.com/ZerojumpLine/SEVAL).

15.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-15

Lifted Schrödinger Bridges for Gaussian Mixture Endpoints: Projection Gaps and Path-Space Obstructions

arXiv:2605.24795v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We study stochastic density control between Gaussian-mixture endpoint distributions under Brownian prior dynamics. Since the direct Schrödinger bridge between Gaussian mixtures is generally not available in closed form, we introduce a lifted path-space construction in which each trajectory is augmented with a source–target component label. Consequently, the problem decomposes into Gaussian component-to-component Schrödinger bridges with explicit marginal, drift, and cost formulas, while the mixture-level assignment reduces to a finite-dimensional entropic coupling problem with a Sinkhorn scaling form. We then analyze the projection obtained by discarding or forgetting the label. By construction, the projected law satisfies the original Gaussian-mixture endpoint constraints, but its relative entropy generally differs from the lifted relative entropy by a nonnegative conditional label-information gap. This gap reveals a path-space obstruction: the lifted optimizer cannot, in general, be identified with the direct unlabeled Schrödinger bridge after projection. We also derive the posterior-averaged Markov drift associated with the projected marginal flow, prove a kinetic-energy upper bound, and identify a common path-potential condition under which the projection gap vanishes. Several numerical illustrations showing density and shape control are recorded for a self-contained exposition.

16.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-24

BioMedVR: Confusion-Aware Mixture-of-Prompt Experts for Biomedical Visual Reprogramming

Recent advances in vision-language models (VLMs) such as CLIP have demonstrated strong generalization across natural-image domains. However, adapting these models to biomedical imaging is non-trivial: full-model fine-tuning is computationally expensive, while medical data are often scarce and exhibit subtle, fine-grained inter-class differences, making parameter-efficient adaptation particularly critical. Visual Reprogramming (VR) offers a parameter-efficient alternative by injecting learnable perturbations into the input space, but existing VR approaches for VLMs mainly focus on positive class prompts and overlook confusing negatives, leading to miscalibrated predictions in fine-grained medical scenarios. We present BioMedVR, the first VR-based framework for biomedical imaging, enabling few-shot adaptation of pretrained VLMs through compact learnable VR modules. To mitigate class confusion, we introduce a Confusion Minimization Mechanism that leverages LLM-generated confusion-aware attributes together with a Confusion-Suppression Loss to explicitly reduce false-positive alignment. Moreover, the designed Mixture-of-Prompt Experts combines a positive expert for main-class discrimination and a negative expert for confusion suppression, balanced via adaptive gating. Extensive experiments on 18 datasets, including 11 biomedical datasets and 7 natural image benchmarks, demonstrate that BioMedVR achieves superior accuracy and generalization, effectively bridging VR and VLMs in biomedical domains.

17.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

Beyond English: Uncovering the Multilingual Gap in Vision-Language-Action Models

Vision-Language-Action models have recently demonstrated promising capabilities in learning generalist robot policies from large-scale multimodal data. However, most existing VLA systems are trained and evaluated primarily with English instructions, leaving their ability to understand and execute instructions in other languages largely unexplored. While the underlying large language models often possess multilingual capabilities, it remains unclear whether these multilingual capabilities transfer to VLAs during training. In this work, we present the first systematic study of multilingual instruction following in VLA models. We first construct multilingual instructions by extending existing benchmarks with translations of their instructions. Using these instructions, we evaluate several representative VLA models across a range of tasks in simulation settings. Our experiments reveal a significant multilingual gap: models trained primarily on English instructions exhibit substantial performance degradation when evaluated on other languages, even when the underlying language backbone is multilingual. We provide several findings and analyses to understand the multilingual gap. Cross-lingual transfer behavior analysis shows that performance drops correlate with both instruction understanding and action execution. Representation analyses suggest that multilingual instruction-caused representation shifts may contribute to the multilingual gap. Motivated by these findings, we further explore strategies to improve multilingual performance in VLAs. We propose a simple yet effective multilingual fine-tuning approach, Multilingual Principal Component Alignment, which leverages Principal Component Analysis to get the principal component subspace and align projected multilingual representations, effectively reducing the multilingual performance gap.

18.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-24

Hybrid Sequence Modeling and Reinforced Verification for Controllable Target-Conditioned Decision Making

arXiv:2508.16420v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Target-conditioned sequence models provide a simple interface for controllable offline decision making, but the requested target return can be an unreliable control signal, especially when the target return lies in underrepresented regions of the dataset. This paper proposes Doctor, a hybrid sequence modeling and reinforced verification framework for controllable target-conditioned offline decision making. Doctor trains a shared masked trajectory Transformer with two complementary objectives: masked trajectory reconstruction for candidate generation and in-sample value learning for action-value verification. At inference time, the model samples multiple nearby target returns, generates candidate actions in parallel, and selects the action whose verified value is closest to the requested target return. We analyze this verifier-guided selection rule and show that its value-level alignment error is bounded by candidate-value coverage around the target return and verifier accuracy. Experiments on D4RL and EpiCare show that Doctor improves target-return alignment under reduced high-return coverage, remains competitive on standard offline return-maximization benchmarks, and enables a single policy to modulate between conservative and aggressive operating points in a simulated clinical decision-making task. These results suggest that reinforced verification can improve the controllability of target-conditioned policies.

19.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-11

NSVQ: Mitigating Codebook Collapse by Stabilizing Encoder Drift in Vector Quantization

Vector quantization is central to modern generative modeling pipelines, but large-codebook VQ models often suffer from codebook collapse. We identify encoder drift as a key driver of this failure: as the encoder moves the latent distribution, sparsely updated code vectors can lag behind, lose assignments, and increase quantization error, creating a feedback loop through the straight-through estimator. We propose NSVQ, a non-stationary-aware VQ training strategy that combines a dense non-stationary embedding loss, codebook replacement, and stage-wise encoder freezing. NSVQ first helps the codebook track encoder drift during early training, then freezes the encoder to consolidate the codebook under a fixed latent geometry, and finally reintroduces adversarial refinement. Experiments on ImageNet-1k show that NSVQ improves reconstruction quality while maintaining full codebook utilization. On ImageNet-1k at 128$\times$128 with 65,536 codes, NSVQ reduces rFID from 2.39 to 2.10 compared with SimVQ, while both methods maintain 100\% utilization. Additional latent diffusion experiments show that NSVQ also improves downstream ImageNet generation FID.

20.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-17

A Risk Decomposition Framework for Pre-Hoc Fine-Tuning Prediction

arXiv:2606.17649v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: The high cost of fine-tuning LLMs poses a significant economic barrier; pre-hoc performance prediction offers a critical solution to substantially reduce this expense. However, the theoretical limits of pre-hoc performance prediction remain unexplored. We formulate it as a stochastic estimation problem under information constraints, decomposing prediction risk into two components: an intrinsic limit (static data-model compatibility) and a reducible optimization variance. We prove that optimization variance admits a necessary lower bound on its decay rate, implying fundamental constraints on how quickly uncertainty dissipates, regardless of the predictor used. Based on these dynamics, we derive a budget-optimal probing principle and introduce a predictability phase diagram that organizes tasks into three distinct regimes: Static-Sufficient, Dynamic-Critical, and Noise-Dominant. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world benchmarks validate these theoretical regimes and demonstrate the efficiency of our probing strategy.

21.
bioRxiv (Bioinfo) 2026-06-11

Calibrated Uncertainty Quantification for Patient-Level AML Drug Sensitivity Prediction Using Split Conformal Prediction

Accurate prediction of ex vivo drug sensitivity in acute myeloid leukemia (AML) patients from transcriptomic data is a critical challenge for precision oncology. Existing computational approaches have explored uncertainty quantification in cancer drug response prediction primarily using cell line data, while patient-level AML models typically rely on heuristic confidence measures rather than statistically calibrated uncertainty estimates. Here, we present a framework applying split conformal prediction to patient-level AML drug response modeling using the BeatAML 2.0 cohort. We trained Elastic Net and XGBoost regressors on bulk RNA-seq gene expression profiles from 318 AML patients, analyzing 34,764 patient-drug observations across 122 compounds. Baseline models achieved median Pearson R values of 0.291 (Elastic Net) and 0.281 (XGBoost) across 122 drugs. Wrapping these models with split conformal prediction yielded well-calibrated prediction intervals across three confidence levels: empirical coverages of 81.4%, 90.7%, and 95.5% against nominal targets of 80%, 90%, and 95%, respectively. Analysis of prediction interval widths revealed substantial drug-class-specific uncertainty patterns, with HDAC and BCL-2 inhibitors exhibiting markedly higher uncertainty than MDM2 inhibitors, suggesting a potential association between transcriptomic predictability and drug mechanism of action, although several drug classes were represented by only a small number of compounds. Predictive uncertainty was not significantly associated with ELN2017 molecular risk classification (Kruskal-Wallis p=0.395) or NPM1 mutation status (p=0.788). These results demonstrate that statistically valid uncertainty quantification can be achieved for patient-level AML drug response prediction despite substantial biological heterogeneity. to the best of our knowledge, no published study has applied split conformal prediction to patient-level ex vivo drug sensitivity prediction in the BeatAML cohort, providing a principled alternative to heuristic confidence scoring approaches. Keywords: Acute myeloid leukemia (AML); Ex vivo drug sensitivity; Conformal prediction; Uncertainty quantification; Precision oncology; BeatAML; Transcriptomic biomarkers; Machine learning.

22.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

FlowMPC: Improving Flow Matching policies with World Models

Authors:

arXiv:2606.16286v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Flow Matching (FM) is a powerful approach for behavior cloning in multimodal action spaces [Jiang et al., 2025], but because it is not trained to directly maximize expected return, there is still room to improve how FM policies act at test time. This work investigates whether a learned world model can improve FM policies by enabling Model Predictive Path Integral (MPPI) planning over candidate action sequences proposed by the policy. Building on TD-MPC2 [Hansen et al., 2024], I introduce FlowMPC, a framework that combines an imitation-learned FM policy with a learned world model for test-time planning in ManiSkill manipulation tasks [Tao et al., 2025]. Across PickCube and PickSingleYCB, adding the world model improved performance over the FM policy alone, with especially clear gains in end-of-episode success. These results suggest that world-model-based planning can effectively complement flow-based imitation policies without modifying the FM training objective.

23.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-17

ASTEROID: A Spatiotemporal Information Transformer for Forecasting Multi-Step Time Series of Molecular Dynamics

arXiv:2606.17668v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Molecular dynamics (MD) simulation is computationally demanding, particularly for large-scale systems requiring long-term analysis. Accurate forecast of the outcomes of a MD simulation is not only an attractive scientific challenge but also has substantial practical value. In this work, we developed a data-driven framework, termed ASTEROID (Advanced Spatiotemporal TransformER fOr Inferring Dynamics), that can directly predict multi-step atomic coordinates, avoiding conventional iterative integration. For this purpose, our ASTEROID reformulates MD trajectories as high-dimensional spatiotemporal sequences and integrates the Spatiotemporal Information (STI) Transformation equation into a Transformer architecture. The core innovation of ASTEROID lies in its ability to model multiscale spatiotemporal dependencies. In particular, for spatial dependencies, a local-global self-attention mechanism captures both short- and long-range interactions. For temporal dependencies, an encoder-decoder structure integrates global context with autoregressive forecasting. ASTEROID was evaluated on several quantum-mechanics derived molecular datasets. Our results indicate that ASTEROID achieved not only a higher level of accuracy in multi-step prediction than existing methods on various benchmarks, but also significantly reduced computational cost of conventional MD simulation. Moreover, the model supports iterative multi-step forecasting over an extended time scale. This work establishes a robust and generalizable data-driven paradigm for accelerating MD simulations.

24.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19

Interactive Pareto navigation for deep multi-task learning

arXiv:2606.19521v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In multi-task learning, handling an increasing number of objectives can quickly become challenging, both in terms of the computational resources and the decision maker's capacity to choose appropriate trade-offs. A widely used approach is thus to aggregate the individual losses in a single loss function by a weighted sum. This often fails to capture either the decision maker's preferences as a result of the shape of the Pareto front, or requires multiple adjustments and computations which becomes prohibitively expensive in deep learning applications. To address these issues, we introduce a novel framework, Preference Pareto Exploration (PPE), which enforces the decision maker's preferences while accounting for the geometry of the Pareto set in an interactive exploration process. PPE is based on a predictor-corrector method that performs predictor steps tangential to the manifold of Pareto-optimal solutions, following the decision maker's preference. The subsequent corrector step results in a new trade-off reflecting this preference. To avoid explicit Hessian computations when characterizing the tangent space of the manifold, we employ a Krylov subspace method that relies solely on matrix-vector products. These products can be efficiently obtained via automatic differentiation, ensuring both efficiency and robustness throughout the optimization process. The method's functionality and performance are demonstrated using both toy problems and examples from deep learning.

25.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

How AI Agents Reshape Knowledge Work: Autonomy, Efficiency, and Scope

arXiv:2606.07489v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Frontier AI systems are bridging the gap between intelligence and utility by shifting from conversational assistants to autonomous agents that execute tasks end to end. Using production data from Perplexity's Search and Computer products, we study this transition by examining how AI agents accelerate and reshape knowledge work. Three key empirical findings emerge. First, using sessions with near-identical initial query pairs as natural experiments for the same underlying task attempted with both products, Computer performs 26 minutes of autonomous work per user session, versus 33 seconds for Search. Computer automates task decomposition and execution that Search users might otherwise manually orchestrate and implement. As a result, Computer shifts follow-up query distribution toward higher-order work such as verification and extension. Autonomy also increases execution quality, with per-query dissatisfaction rates 55% lower on Computer than on Search. Second, due to its autonomy advantage, Computer reduces completion time from 269 to 36 minutes on matched tasks, lowering estimated time and cost by 87% and 94%, respectively, compared to humans equipped with Search alone. Third, Computer changes the scope of work that users attempt: Computer queries more often cross occupational boundaries, require higher-order cognition, draw on broader expertise, take the form of composite tasks that bundle interdependent subtasks into a single query, and unlock work activities that are essentially absent from Search usage among the same users. Together, the evidence indicates that AI agents accelerate workflows, enhance output quality, reduce costs, and expand the breadth and depth of automated work.