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01.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-24

Quantum-enhanced estimation of stimulated Raman optical activity

arXiv:2606.23722v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In recent times there has been growing interest in Raman optical activity (ROA) for its label free detection of absolute configuration, conformation, and stereochemical structure in chiral biosamples and drug molecules. Since ROA signals are generally small, techniques such as stimulation by a probe beam can be used to enhance the signal strength. However, with a classical probe, the measurement precision is still fundamentally limited by its shot noise. To solve this problem we propose the use of two-mode squeezed vacuum and show that it can achieve sub-shot noise limited measurement sensitivity. Using quantum estimation theory, we derived the quantum Fisher information and the quantum Cramér-Rao bound (QCRB) for stimulated ROA measurement to quantify the precision enhancement. This improvement comes from photon-number correlations which suppress the intensity fluctuation common to both modes. We further show that balanced detection of the output intensity difference is a practical measurement scheme that approaches the QCRB and becomes optimal in the small-chirality limit. This opens a promising path toward more sensitive Raman chiroptical spectroscopy of weak and photosensitive samples.

02.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-17

Fixed-Point Reasoners: Stable and Adaptive Deep Looped Transformers

arXiv:2606.18206v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Looped architectures provide an inductive bias toward learning step-by-step procedures for tasks that require compositional reasoning. The number of effective layers reached by looping determines the quality of the solution these models find. Like deep architectures, looped architectures are prone to a signal propagation problem induced by depth as the halting decision is postponed. In this paper, we address this signal propagation issue using pre-norm layers and residual scaling. Building on these architectural modifications, we propose FPRM, a Transformer-based Fixed-Point Reasoning Model that uses fixed-point convergence as an end-to-end halting mechanism in a looped architecture. We show that fixed-point halting allows FPRM to adapt its compute to task difficulty. FPRM is effective on common reasoning benchmarks, namely Sudoku, Maze, state-tracking, and ARC-AGI.

03.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19

A fast direct solver based neural network for solving PDEs

arXiv:2606.19895v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: The matrices arising from large scale $N$-body problems can be efficiently represented using hierarchical matrices, whose key idea is that the admissible off-diagonal sub-matrices can be well approximated by low-rank matrices across a hierarchy of matrix partitions. HODLR (Hierarchical Off-Diagonal Low-Rank) matrices are a subclass of hierarchical matrices in which all off-diagonal submatrices at every level of a recursive binary partition are low-rank. In this article, we present a neural network that learns the inverse operation of HODLR matrices based on the fast direct solver for HODLR matrices developed by Ambikasaran and Darve (2013). We further extend the architecture to learn nonlinear solution operators associated with PDEs by replacing some of the linear layers with deep sub-networks. We demonstrate the performance of the proposed architecture by performing a comprehensive set of experiments that include (i) solving a linear problem such as the Fredholm integral equation of the second kind, (ii) solving PDEs such as the nonlinear Schrödinger equation, Burgers' equation, and the steady-state Darcy's flow equation, (iii) generalization study across varying parameter values, (iv) comparing the inference time of the proposed network with the run time of a classical numerical solver, and (v) comparing the proposed network with some of the existing neural operator learning networks.

04.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-17

Reconfigurable Computing Challenge: Transformer for Jet Tagging on Versal AI Engines

arXiv:2606.17500v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Transformer-based models achieve strong performance for jet tagging at the CERN LHC, but deploying them in low-latency, resource-constrained trigger systems is challenging. We present an initial implementation of a quantized, integer-only transformer for jet tagging on the AMD Versal AI Engine (AIE), mapping dense and multi-head attention (MHA) layers to AIE tiles. The main contribution is a reusable software framework that represents transformer layers as composable AIE building blocks and automatically generates the corresponding Vitis graph code from a high-level Python model description. This framework provides a foundation for future research and is released as open-source software at https://github.com/KastnerRG/particle_transformer_aie.

05.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-18

Fisher Width: A Geometric Measure of Complexity on Statistical Manifolds

Authors:

arXiv:2606.18306v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Gaussian width is a central geometric complexity measure in high-dimensional probability, compressed sensing, convex optimization, and learning theory. It quantifies the average extent of a set along random directions, thereby capturing the effective dimension of constraint sets, hypothesis classes, and descent cones. However, this notion is intrinsically Euclidean. Statistical models instead carry a natural Riemannian geometry induced by the Fisher information metric, where directions are scaled according to statistical distinguishability rather than ambient Euclidean length. We introduce Fisher width, a Fisher-geometric analogue of Gaussian width for statistical manifolds. At a parameter point $\theta$, Fisher width replaces the Euclidean identity by the local metric tensor $G(\theta)^{1/2}$, measuring the Gaussian width of the Fisher-rescaled set. This makes the resulting quantity sensitive to local statistical curvature and invariant under smooth reparameterizations. We develop the basic theory of Fisher width, showing that it retains key structural features of Gaussian width, including concentration, metric perturbation stability, and spectral comparison bounds with the Euclidean baseline, while also capturing anisotropic geometric effects invisible to Euclidean measures. As an application, we prove a generalization bound for Fisher-Lipschitz hypothesis classes and propose computable estimators, which we evaluate empirically on MNIST across three model classes. Fisher width is to statistical manifolds what Gaussian width is to Euclidean convex bodies. This work lays the foundation for studying complexity and learning on curved statistical manifolds.

06.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-15

Generative AI for Managerial Decision-Making under Ambiguity and Sycophancy

arXiv:2603.03970v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) is increasingly being integrated into complex business workflows, fundamentally shifting the boundaries of managerial decision-making. However, the reliability of its strategic advice in ambiguous business contexts remains a critical knowledge gap. To address this gap, this study compares multiple GenAI models in their ability to detect ambiguity, examines whether a systematic ambiguity-resolution process improves response quality, and investigates their susceptibility to sycophantic behavior when confronted with flawed managerial directives. Using a novel four-dimensional business ambiguity taxonomy, we conducted a human-in-the-loop experiment across strategic, tactical, and operational scenarios. The resulting decisions were assessed through a human-validated automated evaluation framework based on agreement, actionability, justification quality, and constraint adherence. The results show that our approach not only distinguishes different types of ambiguity, but also reveals how ambiguity resolution systematically changes model behavior. In particular, resolving ambiguities improved decision quality across all managerial levels, with the strongest gains observed in constraint adherence. The analysis further showed that sycophantic behavior is not uniform across models: some models challenged flawed assumptions, whereas others tended to comply with them. This study contributes to the bounded rationality literature by positioning GenAI as a cognitive scaffold that can detect and resolve ambiguities managers might overlook, while demonstrating that its artificial limitations require human oversight to ensure its reliability as a strategic partner.

07.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

VOiLA: Vectorized Online Planning with Learned Diffusion Model for POMDP Agents

arXiv:2606.19729v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Planning under uncertainty is an essential capability for autonomous robots. The Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) provides a powerful framework for such a capability. Although POMDP-based planning has advanced significantly, its application to real-world problems is often limited by the difficulty of obtaining faithful POMDP models. We present Vectorized Online planning wIth Learned diffusion model for POMDP Agents (VOiLA), a framework that learns task-agnostic POMDP models for online planning under uncertainty. VOiLA learns transition and observation samplers using conditional diffusion models and learns observation-likelihood models for particle-based belief updates. To enable efficient online planning, the diffusion samplers are distilled into compact feedforward generators and integrated with Vectorized Online POMDP Planner (VOPP), an online POMDP planner designed to leverage GPU parallelization. Experimental results indicate the distillation strategy reduces sampling cost by up to nearly three orders of magnitude, making learned generative POMDP models practical for online planning. Evaluation of VOiLA on three benchmark problems indicate that VOiLA achieves equal or better performance than Recurrent Soft Actor Critic while using less than 10% training data, and generalizes much better to unseen environment configurations. Physical robot evaluation indicates VOiLA uses the models learned using only simulated data and generates a policy that successfully accomplish the task in 10 of 10 runs.

08.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

Towards End-to-End Automation of AI Research

arXiv:2606.15497v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The automation of science is a long-standing ambition in the field of AI. While the community has made significant progress in automating individual components of the scientific process, a system that autonomously navigates the entire research lifecycle – from conception to publication – has remained out of reach. Here, we present the strongest demonstration to date toward automating the entire process end-to-end. We present The AI Scientist, which creates research ideas, writes code, runs experiments, plots and analyzes data, writes the entire scientific manuscript and performs its own peer review. Its ideas, execution, and presentation are of sufficient quality to produce a manuscript generated by an AI system that passes the first round of peer review at a major machine learning conference workshop. The workshop has an acceptance rate of 70 percent. Our system leverages modern foundation models within a complex agentic system. We evaluate The AI Scientist in two settings: a focused mode using human-provided code templates as an initial scaffold to conduct research on a specific topic, and a template-free, open-ended mode that leverages agentic search for wider scientific exploration. Both settings produce diverse ideas and automatically test, report on, and evaluate them. This achievement demonstrates AI's growing capacity for scientific contribution and signifies a potential paradigm shift in how research is conducted. As with any impactful new technology, there could be significant risks, including taxing overwhelmed review systems and adding noise to scientific literature. However, if developed responsibly, such autonomous systems could greatly accelerate scientific discovery.

09.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

TS-ICL: A Flexible Time-Indexed Foundation Model for Time Series via In-Context Learning

arXiv:2606.05878v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Foundation models mark a profound paradigm shift in time series modeling, with task-specific models being superseded by general-purpose zero-shot models. Yet, current approaches primarily focus on forecasting, while real-world time series are often irregularly and partially observed, requiring models that can jointly forecast, impute missing values, and handle degraded sampling conditions. To address these challenges, we introduce TS-ICL, a novel probabilistic In-Context Learning encoder–regressor Transformer that unifies forecasting and imputation. TS-ICL formulates time series tasks as timestamp-aligned regression and naturally incorporates covariates by training on synthetic dependency structures generated from a novel causal data prior. Empirically, TS-ICL achieves a new state-of-the-art in imputation, while remaining competitive with leading forecasting foundation models across both univariate and covariate-aware benchmarks. It shows particularly strong performance in forecasting with partially observed look-back windows.

10.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

Improving Code-Switching ASR with Code-Mixing Guided Synthetic Speech

arXiv:2606.19381v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Code-switch (CS) Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) remains challenging due to limited availability of high quality CS text-speech pairs for training. Although synthetic data augmentation via Text-to-speech (TTS) has been explored, existing CS TTS approaches primarily optimise reconstruction fidelity and do not explicitly enforce language-boundary consistency, thereby limiting their effectiveness for CS ASR augmentation. This paper proposes a code-mixing guided preference-learning framework that steers synthetic speech generation toward improved code-switching fidelity using the Code Mixing Index (CMI). Experiments on the SEAME Mandarin-English conversational corpus demonstrate that the proposed method enhances the utility of synthetic data for ASR fine-tuning. Specifically, when fine-tuning Whisper Large, the proposed approach reduces Mixed Error Rate (MER) from 12.1%/17.8% to 8.9%/14.2% on the DevMAN and DevSGE sets, respectively.

11.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

Execution-bound advisory automation for agentic AI: a reproducible AIBOM-driven CSAF-VEX framework

arXiv:2606.19390v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: A protocol driven framework is presented that binds SBOM and AIBOM artefacts to deterministic environment capture and structured runtime telemetry. Exploitability is computed from declared artefacts, observed activation conditions, and enforced execution policies. CSAF VEX advisories are generated from combined static and runtime evidence, cryptographically signed, and validated through deterministic replay. Evaluation uses approximately 10000 component entries across synthetic Agentic AI workloads 50 to 5000 components, incorporating OSV, GitHub Advisory, KEV, and EPSS datasets.

12.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-24

Compressed Quantum Operators and Roots of Hermite Polynomials

arXiv:2606.24792v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The fundamental position and momentum operators of quantum mechanics are unbounded, but finite rank compressions of the operators can be considered to obtain partial information on the operators and their properties. Motivated by problems in photonic quantum computing, we bring together results from quantum theory and the theory of orthogonal polynomials to show that a natural finite rank compression of the position and momentum operator representation on Fock space Hilbert space has eigenvalues given by roots of the classical Hermite polynomials. We discuss the corresponding compressed displacement operators and potential applications in approximate quantum error correction.

13.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

AnonShield: Scalable On-Premise Pseudonymization for CSIRT Vulnerability Data

arXiv:2606.15650v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We present AnonShield, a high-throughput, on-premise pseudonymization system that combines GPU-accelerated NER, streaming processing, caching, and schema-aware configuration. Evaluated on datasets up to 550 MB (70,951 records), AnonShield reduces processing time from over 92 hours to under 10 minutes (up to 738x speedup) while achieving up to 94.2% F1-score and 96.7% recall. Our results show that scalable pseudonymization of vulnerability data is feasible without sacrificing analytical utility, enabling compliant data sharing in operational CSIRT environments.

14.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-22

Toward less intrusive pubertal assessment: longitudinal evaluation of tanner and non-tanner metrics in East African adolescents

Background: Accurate pubertal assessment is essential in pediatric endocrinology and adolescent health research. While Tanner staging remains the gold standard, its subjective nature and invasive genital examination limit feasibility and acceptability, especially in longitudinal studies and culturally sensitive settings. This study evaluated less intrusive pubertal assessment combinations that maintain discriminative accuracy. Methods: We conducted a longitudinal study among 200 uncircumcised, sexually naive males aged 15-17 years in Southwestern Uganda, with quarterly follow-up over three years. Clinicians assessed Tanner staging metrics (pubic hair, testicular volume, penile length, scrotal color), axillary hair, and serum testosterone. Markov transition models estimated Tanner stage progression. Ordinal logistic regression and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) analyses quantified discriminative performance of individual and combined metrics. Results: At baseline, participants were distributed across Tanner stages II (6.0%), III (13.5%), IV (55.0%), and V (25.5%). Among individual metrics, pubic hair distribution best predicted overall Tanner stage (AUC=0.867), while penile length was least predictive (AUC=0.833). The full four-metric Tanner model achieved high discrimination (AUC=0.993). However, a less intrusive combination of pubic hair and scrotal color achieved comparable discrimination (AUC=0.942), improving to AUC=0.953 with axillary hair and age. Markov modeling demonstrated frequent bidirectional transitions between Tanner stages IV and V, reflecting variability in longitudinal staging. Conclusions: A minimally intrusive assessment combining pubic hair, scrotal color, axillary hair, and age reliably predicts pubertal stage, offering an acceptable alternative to traditional Tanner staging for research and surveillance contexts where genital manipulation is impractical or unethical.

15.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-24

ErrorLLM: Modeling SQL Errors for Text-to-SQL Refinement

Despite the remarkable performance of large language models (LLMs) in text-to-SQL (SQL generation), correctly producing SQL queries remains challenging during initial generation. The SQL refinement task is subsequently introduced to correct syntactic and semantic errors in generated SQL queries. However, existing paradigms face two major limitations: (i) self-debugging becomes increasingly ineffective as modern LLMs rarely produce explicit execution errors that can trigger debugging signals; (ii) self-correction exhibits low detection precision due to the lack of explicit error modeling grounded in the question and schema, and suffers from severe hallucination that frequently corrupts correct SQLs. In this paper, we propose ErrorLLM, a framework that explicitly models text-to-SQL Errors within a dedicated LLM for text-to-SQL refinement. Specifically, we represent the user question and database schema as structural features, employ static detection to identify execution failures and surface mismatches, and extend ErrorLLM's semantic space with dedicated error tokens that capture categorized implicit semantic error types. Through a well-designed training strategy, we explicitly model these errors with structural representations, enabling the LLM to detect complex implicit errors by predicting dedicated error tokens. Guided by the detected errors, we perform error-guided refinement on the SQL structure by prompting LLMs. Extensive experiments demonstrate that ErrorLLM achieves the most significant improvements over backbone initial generation. Further analysis reveals that detection quality directly determines refinement effectiveness, and ErrorLLM addresses both sides by high detection F1 score while maintain refinement effectiveness.

16.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-24

On the stability of rarefaction for stochastic viscous conservation law

arXiv:2606.24167v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We study the asymptotic stability of rarefaction waves for one-dimensional stochastic viscous conservation laws driven by nonlinear conservative noise. In a critical scaling where stochastic energy injection and viscous dissipation compete at comparable magnitudes, standard kinetic and viscosity frameworks encounter obstructions due to regularity gaps and non-integrable profiles. To address this, we introduce a stochastic area inequality controlling accumulated energy fluctuations, a local $L^1$ contraction principle via stochastic Kru\v{z}kov doubling-of-variables that yields pathwise uniqueness without global integrability, and a modified Galerkin scheme preserving the $H^2$ energy structure. Assuming local $H^2$ regularity, we prove almost sure algebraic convergence to the rarefaction wave. For sufficiently small initial perturbations, we establish global well-posedness and sharp decay estimates in expectation. The smallness condition identifies a regime where viscous dissipation dominates stochastic injection, reflecting a structural stability threshold rather than a technical artifact. Our approach extends the analytical framework for conservative SPDEs with rough fluxes.

17.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-18

The Effectiveness of aromatherapy and its supportive Interventions on anxiety and pain among breast cancer patients: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Introduction: Breast cancer treatments are often associated with pain and anxiety, which can hinder physical functioning and overall quality of life, even after treatment. Complementary therapies, such as aromatherapy, can be used to alleviate pain and reduce anxiety in breast cancer patients. This project aimed to synthesize current global evidence on the effectiveness of aromatherapy. Method: This systematic review followed the PRISMA 2020 guidelines, with a comprehensive, systematic search conducted in PubMed, CINAHL, Cochrane Library, and SCOPUS for randomized controlled trials (RCTS) published from 2015 to 2025. Eligible studies included adult women breast cancer surgery patients who received aromatherapy during various periods of breast cancer. Where possible, data from the included studies were pooled using meta-analysis. GRADE approach was used to assess certainty of findings. Results: The search yielded 84 studies. Out of these, six were included in this review. On average, aromatherapy reduces pain and anxiety scores by 0.79 (standard mean difference (SMD)=-0.79, 95% CI -1.42, -0.16) and 0.53 (SMD=-0.53, 95 CI=-0.90, -0.16) units, respectively, compared to control condition [Low-quality of evidence]. The combination of aromatherapy with music reduces pain and anxiety by 1.26 (SMD= -1.26, 95 CI=-1.65, -0.87) and 1.08 (SMD = -1.08, 95 % CI: -1.45, -0.70) units respectively compared to standard care [Low-quality of evidence]. Conclusion: There is a potential role for the use of aromatherapy and music therapy, to alleviate anxiety and pain, especially for non-preoperative anxiety and pain. Further research is needed to inform the integration of aromatherapy into the management of anxiety and pain.

18.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-24

A Quantum Non-Gaussianity Criterion Based on Photon Correlations $g^{(2)}$ and $g^{(3)}$

arXiv:2511.08488v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Quantum non-Gaussian states, which cannot be written as mixtures of Gaussian states, are necessary to achieve a quantum advantage in continuous variable systems. They represent an important benchmark for the realization of an advanced quantum light source, as they cannot be made by simple means such as displacement and squeezing. We introduce an attenuation-resistant sufficient criterion for quantum non-Gaussian states based on the second- and third-order correlation functions, $g^{(2)}$ and $g^{(3)}$. The general non-linear bound for classical mixtures of Gaussian states is $\sqrt{g^{(3)}} + 3 \sqrt{g^{(2)}} \geq 2$. Any mixture of Gaussian states must fulfill this inequality, thus, the violation of it represents a direct confirmation of quantum non-Gaussianity. We experimentally show the non-Gaussianity of the state produced by a quantum dot single-photon source, where we obtain $\sqrt{g^{(3)}} + 3 \sqrt{g^{(2)}} = 0.174 (13)$, which represents a statistical significance of more than $100$ standard deviations.

19.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-15

Encoder Winners Do Not Reliably Transfer Across VLA Backbone Scale: A Frozen-Backbone Grafting Diagnostic

Vision-language-action (VLA) policies typically inherit their vision encoder from upstream VLM releases, but it is unclear whether an encoder choice validated on a small VLA transfers to a larger backbone. We introduce a frozen-backbone grafting diagnostic: the vision tower of a released VLA is replaced by a candidate encoder under a fixed protocol (adaptive average pooling, LayerNorm, and a single trainable linear projector), with the language model and action expert frozen. Across four encoders, two LIBERO suites, two backbones (SmolVLA-450M and $\pi_{0.5}$-3.3B), and two-to-three seeds per cell (40 main grafting runs plus native, LoRA, pooling, and zero-/shuffled-image controls, all scored by offline action MSE), the small-backbone winner does not reliably select the large-backbone top tier: SigLIP is best on SmolVLA across both suites, while on $\pi_{0.5}$ DINOv2-small leads the spatial suite and the object suite is a seed-sensitive near-tie band; three of the four backbone-suite comparisons (and 11 of 12 seed-level cells) support backbone-dependent rankings. The grafting wrapper is itself non-neutral with opposite sign across backbones (+45-56% MSE on the SmolVLA native tower, -50-52% on $\pi_{0.5}$), so all conclusions are conditional on the fixed grafting protocol. We position frozen grafting as a cheap target-backbone diagnostic to run before committing to an encoder at scale, not as a closed-loop deployment claim.

20.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

AgentRivet: an automated system for producing Rivet routines from journal publications

arXiv:2606.13535v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Particle physics collider experiments provide Rivet routines as part of the analysis preservation strategy for model-independent measurements. Rivet is a C++ toolkit that allow new theoretical models to be compared to the measurements, thus aiding the development and tuning of Monte Carlo event generators as well as searches for physics beyond the Standard Model. However, analysis coverage is known to be incomplete, with only 39% of measurements having documented and publicly available Rivet routines. In this article, we design and implement an automated workflow based on Large Language Models with the goal of providing the missing routines. This multi-step workflow, referred to as AgentRivet, extracts the physics analysis information from published papers and writes the missing Rivet routines, with intermediate code- and physics- reviews as part of an autonomous quality control. We report the results obtained using commercial Large Language Models, provided by OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google, for two recent measurements from the ATLAS and CMS experiments. We find that AgentRivet produces competent Rivet routines with few syntax errors. The physics fidelity of the routines is reasonable and follows the explanations given in the relevant publications. Nevertheless, physics-implementation issues do arise and are investigated using the artefacts produced by AgentRivet. The majority of physics implementation issues arise from subtle-but-ambiguous definitions in the given publication, although some models struggle to implement complex observables even when clear definitions are given.

21.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-18

Leveraging Energy Features for Surface Classification with Deep Learning: A Comparative Analysis Across Three Independent Datasets

arXiv:2606.18698v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: The energy-based method remains a comparatively underexamined approach for surface classification in mobile robotics, despite promising results in constrained environments. This study evaluated the viability of using energy-derived features as either a standalone classification modality or as supplementary input to inertial data. A comprehensive evaluation was conducted across three publicly available datasets, comparing the performance of modern deep learning architectures including recurrent neural networks, convolutional neural networks, encoder-only transformers, and Mamba state-space models, under automated hyperparameter tuning and input sequence length optimization. The models achieved higher accuracy than previously reported values on all evaluated datasets, with the convolutional neural network yielding the highest overall performance. When relying exclusively on energy-based features, the models attained classification accuracies in the range of 85-90%, approximately 5-10% lower than those achieved when combined with inertial features (96-99%). Augmenting inertial data with energy features resulted in a consistent mean accuracy improvement of 1-2%. These findings indicate that classifiers relying solely on energy features offer sufficient accuracy for standalone deployment, while also providing a consistent gain when used in combination with other sensing modalities.

22.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-17

Beyond Benchmarks: Continuous Edge Inference for Fine-Grained Roadside Perception

Continuous AI inference on resource-constrained edge hardware introduces deployment effects that are largely invisible to conventional benchmark evaluation, including temporal instability in streaming video, thermal throttling under sustained load, and workload-dependent performance variability. We present Edge-TSR, a deployment-oriented continuous edge inference system for sustained roadside perception on the NVIDIA Jetson Orin Nano. Edge-TSR integrates detection, tracking, fine-grained classification, and a lightweight track-aware temporal stabilization mechanism that improves streaming inference consistency with negligible computational overhead. Our central finding is that benchmark-centric evaluation systematically overstates deployed edge inference performance. Across three state-of-the-art baselines, we observe consistent 20-30% relative degradation when transitioning from static-image evaluation to real-world streaming deployment. Edge-TSR addresses this gap through temporal inference stabilization, recovering up to 10.16% classification accuracy over per-frame inference baselines while maintaining sustained real-time performance under continuous operation. We evaluate the complete system under diverse real-world deployment conditions, jointly characterizing inference quality, latency, throughput, and thermal behavior during long-duration operation. A 55-minute vehicular deployment over a 26 km route demonstrates sustained operation at 16.18 FPS within safe thermal limits on a single embedded device without cloud offload. Our findings show that deployment-aware evaluation and temporal inference stabilization are necessary components of continuously operating edge AI systems intended for real-world sensing deployments. We release a sample annotated streaming video evaluation dataset and full system implementation to support reproducible deployment-centric evaluation.

23.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Machine Learning and the Random Walk Puzzle: Forecasting the CAD/USD Exchange Rate with Expanding Window Evaluation and SHAP Interpretability

arXiv:2606.15058v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: This study examines whether machine learning (ML) models can outperform the naive random walk benchmark in forecasting the monthly USD/CAD exchange rate. Using daily data from the Bank of Canada spanning January 2017 to May 2026, resampled into 113 monthly observations, five ML models are evaluated: linear regression, random forest, gradient boosting, XGBoost, and AdaBoost. These models are benchmarked against the naive random walk model and exponential smoothing with Holt-Winters seasonality (ETS). All models are evaluated using an expanding-window framework to maintain strict out-of-sample integrity, and forecast-accuracy differences are assessed using the Diebold-Mariano (DM) test. Structural break detection identifies four significant breakpoints in the series, corresponding to the escalation of the US-China trade war in 2018, the COVID-19 economic recovery in 2020, the peak of the Bank of Canada rate-hiking cycle in 2022, and the start of the Bank of Canada rate-cutting cycle in 2024. SHAP, or Shapley Additive Explanations, analysis is applied to interpret the drivers of the best-performing ML model. The results show that the naive random walk model remains a formidable benchmark. Linear regression is the only model that statistically outperforms the naive random walk model, with a DM statistic of 3.0585 and a p value of 0.0071, whereas the ML ensemble models show only marginal differences. Random Forest with an expanding-window framework achieves the lowest MAPE of 1.17 percent among all models except the random walk. SHAP analysis confirms that short-term lags, particularly lag1 and lag2, and recent rolling means dominate predictions, consistent with the near-random-walk behavior of exchange rates.

24.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-17

Conformal Path Reasoning: Trustworthy Knowledge Graph Question Answering via Path-Level Calibration

Knowledge Graph Question Answering (KGQA) offers grounded, interpretable reasoning, but existing methods often fail to provide reliable coverage guarantees over retrieved answers. While Conformal Prediction (CP) offers a principled framework for producing prediction sets with statistical guarantees, prior conformal KGQA methods suffer from two critical pitfalls: violated coverage guarantees due to invalid calibration, and weak score discriminability that yields excessively large prediction sets. We propose Conformal Path Reasoning (CPR), a novel trustworthy KGQA framework built on two key innovations. First, query-level conformal calibration over path-level scores preserves exchangeability to ensure valid coverage guarantees. Second, we introduce the Residual Conformal Value Network (RCVNet), a lightweight module trained via PUCT-guided exploration to learn discriminative path-level nonconformity scores. Extensive experiments show that CPR significantly improves the Empirical Coverage Rate by 45% while reducing prediction set size by 52% on average over conformal baselines across benchmark datasets, highlighting its effectiveness for reliable conformal reasoning over knowledge graphs.

25.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

SPICE: Synergy and Partial Information Based Curriculum Evolution

arXiv:2606.16639v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Multimodal learning exploits complementary information across heterogeneous modalities. The informativeness of each modality can vary widely across samples and training stages. Existing multimodal curriculum learning strategies often assume that the relative complexity of samples remains unchanged throughout training and therefore cannot adapt to model evolution. We propose SPICE (Synergy and Partial Information based Curriculum Evolution), a novel progressive curriculum framework for multimodal interaction learning. Guided by Partial Information Decomposition (PID) theory, our approach decomposes multimodal interactions into redundant, unique, and synergistic information components, enabling an interpretable and dynamic characterization of sample complexity. Building on this decomposition, we design a progressive curriculum that evolves throughout training, allowing the model to transition from learning shared cross-modal cues to modality-specific patterns and, finally, to complex synergistic interactions. Adapting to model evolution, sample ordering is refined in real-time using PID information estimates derived from unimodal and multimodal predictions. Experiments across multiple multimodal benchmarks demonstrate consistent improvements over conventional training and state-of-the-art baselines, highlighting the effectiveness of PID information decomposition and adaptive sample ordering for multimodal curriculum learning.