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01.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-22

Study protocol: Feasibility and clinical implications of real-time cerebral autoregulation monitoring in major noncardiac surgery with the Medtronic Cotrending algorithm (AUTOREGULATE-NONCARDIAC-COTRENDING)

Background: Perioperative hypotension is associated with postoperative organ injury. However, trials of hypotension avoidance have not found meaningful improvements in postoperative cardiovascular, renal, neurological or functional outcomes. One possible explanation is that organ perfusion depends on patients individual autoregulatory ranges. Hence, technology enabling monitoring of the autoregulatory status of vital organs, e.g. the brain, could provide a physiologic basis for personalising of blood pressure targets. However, current established methodologies for monitoring cerebral autoregulation in noncardiac surgery, e.g. the cerebral oximetry index (COx), are limited by performance and usability. The Medtronic Cotrending algorithm has been developed to provide automated, near real-time assessment of cerebral autoregulation. While feasibility was demonstrated in cardiac surgery, its applicability in major noncardiac surgery remains unknown. This study aims to evaluate the technical feasibility and clinical implications of Cotrending-based cerebral autoregulation monitoring in major noncardiac surgery. Objectives: Primary objective: To evaluate the technical feasibility of using the Medtronic Cotrending algorithm to monitor intraoperative cerebral autoregulation in real-time during major noncardiac surgery, drawing comparisons to the COx algorithm. Secondary objectives: to investigate the potential clinical implications of Cotrending-based cerebral autoregulation monitoring. Design: Single-centre, prospective cohort study. Setting: Swiss tertiary care centre Patients: Patients enrolled in AUTOREGULATE-NONCARDIAC who were monitored intraoperatively with the Medtronic INVOS(TM) 5100 near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) system. Outcomes: Technical feasibility outcomes include success rate of determination of the lower limit of cerebral autoregulation, intraoperative uptime, time to first estimate of the lower limit of cerebral autoregulation, sensitivity to external factors and to data artefacts; agreement of Cotrending-derived lower limit of cerebral autoregulation with COx-derived lower limit of cerebral autoregulation. Conclusions: N/A Trial registration: Clinicaltrials.gov NCT07630129

02.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

PSCT-Net: Geometry-Aware Pediatric Skull CT Reconstruction via Differentiable Back-Projection and Attention-Guided Refinement

arXiv:2606.19867v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Computed Tomography (CT) is essential for diagnosing pediatric craniofacial abnormalities, yet poses radiation risks to developing anatomies. Reconstructing 3D CT from sparse bi-planar X-rays offers a low-dose alternative but is severely ill-posed. Existing methods employ geometry-agnostic feature lifting, naively projecting 2D features into 3D without explicit spatial modeling, causing depth ambiguity and degraded osseous boundaries. We present PSCT-Net, a geometry-aware framework with differentiable back-projection. Differentiable back-projection establishes a spatially faithful volumetric prior, alleviating depth ambiguity. An Attention-Guided Projection (AGP-3D) module then learns non-linear voxel-wise correspondences between 2D regions and 3D locations. A Bidirectional Mamba (BiM-3D) module captures long-range volumetric dependencies with linear complexity. We further curate a private institutional pediatric skull CT cohort, PedSkull-CT, comprising normal and pathological cases for internal evaluation, addressing the gap in adult-centric, trunk-focused datasets.

03.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-12

Net-Ev$^2$: A Generative Simulator for Network Event Evolution

arXiv:2606.12494v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Reducing real-world trial and error has long been a central goal of decision making, and generative simulators advance this goal by modeling the evolution of future states. An even more challenging yet meaningful task is simulating how disturbance events (e.g., accidents) propagate their impacts across real-world networks. The existing approaches fall short of modeling both structured attributes and unstructured semantics of events, and capturing topological structures in simulating network event evolution. Therefore, we are motivated to propose Net-Ev$^2$ ($\underline{Net}$work $\underline{Ev}$ent $\underline{Ev}$olution), a novel generative simulator that jointly leverages event cues while preserving network topology in simulations. Specifically, the framework consists of two stages, namely structure-guided masked pre-training and topology-aware diffusion process, which is achieved by U-Net-like graph downsampling and upsampling during denoising. At inference time, Net-Ev$^2$ can generate simulations using natural-language event input only, with greater flexibility for practical usage. Furthermore, we introduce Net-Ev$^2$-6.5M, a multimodal benchmark of aligned event and network traffic data across four large-scale road networks, as well as a new topology-aware metric, namely JL-MMD, to evaluate topological fidelity in generated network dynamics. Extensive experiments demonstrate the state-of-the-art performance and strong generalization ability of Net-Ev$^2$. Code is made available at https://github.com/Guangyu4/Net-Ev-2.

04.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

Reasoning for Mobile User Experience with Multimodal LLMs: Task, Benchmark, and Approach

arXiv:2606.13192v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: User experience (UX) centered on usability, perceived consistency, and functional clarity is fundamental to real-world user interfaces (UI). The application of multimodal large language models (MLLMs) in the field of user interfaces is evolving rapidly, such as visual element grounding, graphical user interface (GUI) agents, and design-to-code generation. However, research efforts on evaluating UX based on UI screenshots are still immature. To address this, we propose UXBench, a novel multimodal benchmark consisting of 2,000 VQA data samples designed to assess MLLMs' ability to perform UI-based reasoning. UXBench includes 8 tasks based on real-world UI screenshots that require fine-grained diagnosis of UX issues across layout relationships, visual hierarchy, and content consistency. Our extensive evaluation of mainstream MLLMs shows that they remain fundamentally limited in their capacity for UI-based reasoning. The results underscore the need for further advancements in this area. To bridge this gap, we propose UI-UX, an MLLM based on Qwen3-VL-4B-Thinking foundation model and enhanced via reinforcement learning with two key innovations: a reward routing mechanism that dynamically balances perceptual understanding and logical reasoning during inference, and an asymmetric transition reward that suppresses redundant or insufficient reasoning steps. Experiments demonstrate that UI-UX achieves state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance on UXBench, attaining an accuracy of 0.7963 – surpassing Claude-4.5-Sonnet's 0.6550 – while exhibiting strong generalization across diverse UI tasks and maintaining low inference latency.

05.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-15

HiLo-Token: Input-Adaptive High-Low Frequency Token Compression for Efficient Image Editing

Creative image editing tools, such as Photoshop's Remove or Generative Fill buttons, are central to everyday customer use and account for a major share of traffic in Photoshop and Lightroom. However, current generative AI models face significant latency challenges, which become even more pronounced when transitioning from convolution-based U-Nets to Diffusion Transformers (DiTs). In our evaluation on hundreds of representative image editing samples spanning a wide range of mask ratios, the DiT module alone accounts for an average of 73% of the total model latency, even after being distilled from 50 timesteps down to 8 timesteps. To tackle this challenge, we propose $HiLo-Token$, an input-adaptive token compression framework that allocates more token budget to high-frequency, rich-context regions while assigning fewer tokens to low-frequency areas. Specifically, for the editing region specified by the user mask, we retain all tokens within a dilated mask to preserve strong locality and contextual relevance. Outside the editing region, we introduce a simple yet effective high-frequency token selection strategy based on spatial frequency to capture important local details, while using tokens from a 16x downsampled image to represent low-frequency components and preserve the blurry but global structure. Extensive experiments on production-level evaluation data validate the effectiveness of the proposed method, achieving 3.13x, 2.59x, and 1.67x DiT speedups on A100-80GB for image editing tasks across small, medium, and large mask ratio categories with average ratios of 6.38%, 15.92%, and 35.36%, respectively, without any regression in generation quality.

06.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

FlowEdit: Associative Memory for Lifelong Pronunciation Adaptation in Flow-Matching TTS

arXiv:2606.20518v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Flow-matching text-to-speech systems achieve remarkable zero-shot quality but remain static after deployment: pronunciation errors on out-of-vocabulary proper nouns persist unless the model is retrained. We introduce FlowEdit, a life-long adaptation framework for frozen flow-matching TTS that learns pronunciation corrections as latent conditioning edits rather than weight updates. When corrective feedback is provided, FlowEdit optimizes a token-level perturbation in the text embedding space, then stores the correction in a Modern Hopfield Network serving as content-addressable episodic memory. At inference, corrections are retrieved via soft attention with a similarity gate, enabling fuzzy morphological matching. On our curated benchmark of 312 multilingual proper nouns across 18 language families, FlowEdit reduces target-word Phoneme Error Rate by 92.7% relative to the zero-shot baseline while maintaining identical general-speech quality. Corrections complete in approximately 15 seconds on a single GPU.

07.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19

The Hidden Environmental Cost of Poor Coding Practices in TensorFlow and Keras Applications: A Study on Resource Leaks and Carbon Emissions

arXiv:2606.19799v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Efficiency and sustainability are critical considerations in the development and deployment of machine learning (ML) applications. Among the factors influencing sustainability, resource leaks in ML code can introduce hidden inefficiencies that elevate energy consumption and CO2 emissions. Despite this, empirical evidence quantifying their environmental impact remains limited. This emerging results paper presents an initial empirical investigation of two common resource-leak smells, namely Improper Model Reuse (IMR) and Unreleased Tensor References (UTR), and their impact on energy consumption and CO2 emissions in TensorFlow and Keras workloads. Controlled experiments were conducted for each smell by executing identical training tasks while comparing against a smell-free baseline. Our preliminary results show that both smells consistently increase estimated electricity usage and carbon emissions. IMR and UTR increased electricity consumption by approximately 32% and 46%, respectively, with proportional increases in CO2 emissions. Paired statistical tests indicate that these differences are systematic and statistically significant, providing initial empirical evidence that resource-leak smells may degrade ML energy efficiency and environmental sustainability. These findings suggest that resource-leak smells pose measurable risks to both software quality and sustainability, emphasizing the importance of integrating resource-lifecycle management and energy-efficiency considerations into ML development.

08.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-18

Neural Phase Correlation

Authors:

Correspondence is fundamentally relational: it seeks the unknown transformation between two observations of a common scene, not the content of either. Yet the dominant learning-based methods do not represent the transformation as a first-class object in the architecture. They encode each image independently and let a learned similarity function or a deep decoder discover the mapping implicitly. Phase correlation is the canonical exception, measuring the inter-image relationship directly in the Fourier domain, but the rigidity of its fixed basis confines it to global translation. We introduce a learned generalization of phase correlation that lifts this restriction by learning the basis on which the transformation decomposes. The same algebraic primitive extends to dense non-rigid deformations and to unitary dynamics. On the ACDC cardiac-MRI benchmark the framework matches or exceeds prior published baselines on both registration directions. On CAMUS echocardiography it matches state-of-the-art without auxiliary scoring or adaptive-smoothness mechanisms. Applied to time-evolved wavefunction pairs of the 1-D quantum harmonic oscillator, the same framework recovers the Hermite-function eigenstates and the quantized energy levels of the unknown Hamiltonian from observation pairs alone.

09.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-15

X-OPD: Cross-Modal On-Policy Distillation for Capability Alignment in Speech LLMs

While the shift from cascaded dialogue systems to end-to-end (E2E) speech Large Language Models (LLMs) improves latency and paralinguistic modeling, E2E models often exhibit a significant performance degradation compared to their text-based counterparts. The standard Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) and Reinforcement Learning (RL) training methods fail to close this gap. To address this, we propose X-OPD, a novel Cross-Modal On-Policy Distillation framework designed to systematically align the capabilities of Speech LLMs to their text-based counterparts. X-OPD enables the Speech LLM to explore its own distribution via on-policy rollouts, where a text-based teacher model evaluates these trajectories and provides token-level feedback, effectively distilling teacher's capabilities into student's multi-modal representations. Extensive experiments across multiple benchmarks demonstrate that X-OPD significantly narrows the gap in complex tasks while preserving the model's inherent capabilities.

10.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-15

Robustness without Wrinkles: Parallel Simulation and Robust MPC for Certified Deformable Manipulation

arXiv:2606.14188v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We present CORD-SLS, a real-time control method for safe deformable object manipulation, with a focus on ropes and cloth. At its core is a GPU-parallel differentiable simulator with contact smoothing which enables efficient gradient-based planning through intermittent contact. To robustly satisfy constraints under model and sensing uncertainty, we develop a real-time, GPU-parallel output-feedback robust model predictive control (MPC) algorithm that plans with this simulator. We further show that the simulator accelerates model-based RL for training neural manipulation policies. To improve real-world robustness, we use conformal prediction to calibrate visual-feedback and perception-error bounds for MPC, producing reachable tubes that enable high-probability safe control. We evaluate CORD-SLS on high-dimensional, contact-rich rope and cloth manipulation tasks in simulation and hardware, including obstacle avoidance, routing, folding, and smoothing. Across settings, CORD-SLS achieves millisecond-speed planning, exceeding baselines in safety, speed, and task success.

11.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-15

Fast Autoregressive Video Diffusion and World Models with Temporal Cache Compression and Sparse Attention

Autoregressive video diffusion models enable streaming generation, opening the door to long-form synthesis, video world models, and interactive neural game engines. However, their core attention layers become a major bottleneck at inference time: as generation progresses, the KV cache grows, causing both increasing latency and escalating GPU memory, which in turn restricts usable temporal context and harms long-range consistency. In this work, we study redundancy in autoregressive video diffusion and identify three persistent sources: near-duplicate cached keys across frames, slowly evolving (largely semantic) queries/keys that make many attention computations redundant, and cross-attention over long prompts where only a small subset of tokens matters per frame. Building on these observations, we propose a unified, training-free attention framework (FAST-AR) for FAST-AutoRegressive diffusion, consisting of three components: TempCache compresses the KV cache via temporal correspondence to bound cache growth; AnnCA accelerates cross-attention by selecting frame-relevant prompt tokens using fast approximate nearest neighbor (ANN) matching; and AnnSA sparsifies self-attention by restricting each query to semantically matched keys, also using a lightweight ANN. Together, these modules reduce attention, compute, and memory and are compatible with existing autoregressive diffusion backbones and world models. Experiments demonstrate up to x5 - x10 end-to-end speedups while preserving near-identical visual quality and, crucially, maintaining stable throughput and nearly constant peak GPU memory usage over long rollouts, where prior methods progressively slow down and suffer from increasing memory usage.

12.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-15

Time Series Causal Discovery via Context-Conditioned and Causality-Augmented Pretraining

arXiv:2605.26759v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Causal discovery from time series is critical for many real-world applications, such as tracing the root causes of anomalies. Existing approaches typically rely on dataset-specific optimization, making it difficult to transfer their causal discovery capabilities to new time series governed by diverse causal mechanisms. In this paper, we propose PTCD, a novel Pretraining framework for Time-series Causal Discovery, which improves cross-task generalization through context-conditioned modeling and transferable causal augmentation. To model complex temporal causal dependencies, PTCD employs a dual-scale iterative attention mechanism to capture window-level causal relationships, and a Gaussian mixture with a context-level routing mechanism to handle heterogeneous exogenous distributions. To further address distribution shifts across causal graphs, PTCD adopts a pretraining paradigm on synthetic datasets that integrates intervention-based learning and a causal mixup strategy, promoting stable causal discovery and stronger generalization. Extensive experiments on multiple real-world out-of-distribution (OOD) datasets demonstrate that PTCD excels in both causal discovery and root cause identification.

13.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-17

Time-dependent averages of a critical long-range stochastic heat equation

arXiv:2411.09058v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We study the time-dependent spatial averages of a critical stochastic partial differential equation, namely the stochastic heat equation in dimension $d\geq 3$ with noise white in time and colored in space with covariance kernel $\|\cdot\|^{-2}$. The solution to this SPDE is a singular measure and was constructed by Mueller and Tribe in [MT04]. We show that the time-dependent spatial averages of this SPDE over a ball of radius $R$ at time $t$ have different limits under different space-time scales. In particular, when $t\ll R^2$, the central limit theorem holds; when $t=R^2$, the spatial average is a non-Gaussian random variable; when $t\gg R^2$, the spatial average becomes extinct.

14.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-16

Purely unrectifiable sets, fractal percolation and graphs of functions

arXiv:2606.15745v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: This paper contains a survey of some of the results of the author related to unrectifiablity and is an extended version of the author's talk given at the Second Winter School Geometric Measure Theory Rectifiability vs. Pure Unrectifiability in Hanghzou, China. These results include irregular/purely unrectifiable $1$-sets on the graphs of continuous functions like the Takagi, the Weierstrass-Cellerier and the typical (in the sense of Baire) continuous function. It is also discussed that there exists $ {\alpha}_{0}\alpha_0$. The background of the $1$-unrectifiability is discussed in more detail.

15.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

Emergent retokenization symmetry in large language models: phenomenology and applications

Tokenization introduces representational redundancy: under a fixed token vocabulary, every byte string admits many valid token encodings, or segmentations, that decode to the same surface string. However, given a prompt, most language model tokenizers break this representational symmetry by returning a canonical segmentation. Training only on canonical segmentations should influence inference behavior, and there is little reason to expect models to respect segmentation symmetry on downstream tasks. We find that this symmetry partially emerges during training. Here, we probe this emergent symmetry through experiments testing token compositional understanding, representation diversity, and task focused benchmark performance. We primarily use retokenization – replacing a prompt's canonical tokenization with an alternative segmentation while preserving its bytes exactly. Relative to other prompt perturbations, retokenization is unusually clean because it isolates segmentation effects without changing syntax, semantics or surface form. We use retokenization to study sensitivity and robustness to semantically identical input representations across pretraining and post-training. Moreover, this partial retokenization symmetry suggests a distinct inference-time sampling axis. While temperature sampling generates diverse outputs from the model using its next-token probability distribution, retokenization generates diversity from the model's internal computations through semantically equivalent input representations. We find that while this retokenization sampling strategy can hurt performance on easy problems, it can also recover solutions that conventional sampling does not find. Overall, our work presents retokenization as a simple yet powerful probe of large language models, shedding light on compositional understanding and prompt sensitivity, and offering a novel sampling strategy.

17.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-15

Trivariate Hypergeometric Series Formulas for Pure Partition Functions of Multiple $3$-SLE$_\kappa$

Authors:

arXiv:2606.14038v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Pure partition functions of multiple SLE are characterized by null-state partial differential equations, Möbius covariance, and boundary asymptotics. After quotienting by Möbius covariance, the case of three curves is the first genuinely multivariable one: the moduli space has three independent variables, naturally represented by the three unoriented cross-ratios of the three pairs of links. We solve this Möbius-normalized three-variable problem for the two basic link-pattern types of multiple \(3\)-SLE\(_\kappa\), namely the rainbow and neighbor patterns. Writing \(\beta=4/\kappa\), we construct explicit trivariate hypergeometric-series normal forms and identify them with the corresponding pure partition functions for all \(\beta>1/2\) in the rainbow case and all \(\beta\ge2/3\) in the neighbor case. Equivalently, these ranges are \(\kappa\in(0,8)\) and \(\kappa\in(0,6]\), respectively. The proof is analytic. The null-state PDEs and Möbius covariance yield recursion relations for the trivariate coefficient arrays. In the rainbow case, coefficient estimates give convergence and boundary regularity on the closed cube. In the neighbor case, Pfaff systems continue the local power series to a neighborhood of \([0,1)^3\), while side-face equations, regular normal estimates, and corner propagation give continuity on \([0,1]^3\) for \(\beta\ge2/3\). The endpoint \(\beta=2/3\), corresponding to \(\kappa=6\), requires a logarithmic normal term. The two-dimensional boundary degenerations are classical Appell \(F_1\) and Horn \(G_2\) functions. The probabilistic identification uses SLE martingale arguments and Itô calculus, together with positivity and boundary regularity. We also discuss boundary degenerations, including heuristic connections with boundary Green's functions.

18.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-11

On Aligning Hierarchical Standardized Embedding for Audio-visual Generalized Zero-shot Learning

Audio-visual Generalized Zero-shot Learning (AV-GZSL) is a challenging task that aims to classify both seen and unseen objects or scenes by integrating data from audio and visual modalities. Recent studies primarily focus on fusing or aligning audio and visual features to generate more informative audio-visual embeddings. Also, aligning the audio-visual and textual features of most existing methods relies solely on the optimization objectives. However, those methods neglect the inherent distributional and structural differences between audio-visual and textual modalities. To address this limitation, we propose a method termed Aligning Hierarchical Standardized Embedding (AHSE), which enables hierarchical alignment of standardized audio-visual and textual embeddings within a shared embedding space. Specifically, we first apply Z-score standardization to the fused audio-visual and textual embeddings to reduce distributional mismatches. We then introduce a hierarchical alignment strategy that minimizes discrepancies at the semantic, class, and batch levels, thereby constructing a more robust and well-structured embedding space. This strategy not only preserves semantic and inter-class relationships but also maintains spatial consistency within each batch. Extensive experiments on three benchmark datasets: VGGSound-GZSL, UCF-GZSL, and ActivityNet-GZSL, demonstrate that AHSE achieves competitive performance in zero-shot learning.

19.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-16

AI-assisted continuous-time modelling of metastatic breast cancer reveals subtype-specific spatiotemporal organ interactions

Metastatic breast cancer is one of the leading causes of premature mortality among women worldwide. A major barrier to optimal care is the marked heterogeneity in both the temporal dynamics of metastatic spread and the organ-specific spatial distribution of metastases. Existing analyses do not adequately capture this complexity, as they either neglect temporal dependencies or assume independence between metastasic sites. As a result, it remains unclear how established metastases influence subsequent organ-specific dissemination. We address this question using patient-level longitudinal trajectories from a large multicentre real-world metastatic breast cancer registry, combined with an AI-assisted disease-progression modelling framework based on continuous-time Markov chains that represent combinations of metastatic sites and the non-uniform and practice-driven timing of radiologic response assessments, as encountered in routine clinical care. We present a stochastic model determined by progression rates, which are parameterised to capture baseline organ-specific transition risks, patient-level covariates, and pairwise inter-organ interaction effects. High-dimensional treatment information is incorporated using an large language model based encoding. We find that metastatic spread follows non-independent, subtype-specific spatiotemporal patterns, with subtype-specific inter-organ interaction patterns that shape progression. Visceral metastases, particularly lung and liver metastasis, are associated with an increased hazard of subsequent brain metastasis, with effects varying across hormone receptor-positive, HER2-positive, and triple-negative subtypes. Together, these findings define a clinically relevant spatiotemporal architecture of metastatic progression in breast cancer. This framework enables refined mechanism-informed risk stratification and provides a data-driven rationale for targeted and risk-adapted – rather than symptom-triggered – surveillance strategies.

20.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-12

Structuring The Future: Diffusion LLM Speculative Decoding via Calibrated Draft Graphs

Diffusion LLMs (dLLMs) have recently emerged as a powerful alternative to autoregressive LLMs (AR-LLMs) with the potential to operate at significantly higher token-generation rates. To unlock this potential, we present Spiffy, a speculative decoding algorithm to accelerate dLLM inference while provably preserving the model's output distribution. This work addresses the unique challenges involved in applying ideas from speculative decoding of AR-LLMs to dLLMs. Spiffy performs auto-speculation to eliminate the overheads of an independent draft model, structuring draft states in the form of a novel directed draft graph to take advantage of the bidirectional, blockwise nature of dLLM generation. These draft graphs are calibrated offline to maximize acceptance rates and are dynamically pruned during inference for improved computational efficiency. We present a detailed formulation of Spiffy and demonstrate its ability to accelerate LLaDA, Dream, and SDAR models in combination with KV caching and threshold-based dynamic unmasking leading to up to $8.6\times$ reduction in model inferences and $6.3\times$ acceleration in token rate.

21.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-16

Sharp Transitions for Subsystem Complexity

arXiv:2510.18832v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: The circuit complexity of time-evolved pure quantum states grows linearly in time for an exponentially long time. This behavior has been proven in certain models, is conjectured to hold for generic quantum many-body systems, and is believed to be dual to the long-time growth of black hole interiors in AdS/CFT. Achieving a similar understanding for mixed states remains an important problem. In this work, we study the circuit complexity of time-evolved subsystems of pure quantum states. We find that for greater-than-half subsystem sizes, the complexity grows linearly in time for an exponentially long time, similarly to that of the full state. However, for less-than-half subsystem sizes, the complexity rises and then falls, returning to low complexity as the subsystem equilibrates. Notably, the transition between these two regimes occurs sharply at half system size. We use holographic duality to map out this picture of subsystem complexity dynamics and rigorously prove the existence of the sharp transition in random quantum circuits. Furthermore, we use holography to predict features of complexity growth at finite temperature that lie beyond the reach of techniques based on random quantum circuits. In particular, at finite temperature, we argue for an additional sharp transition at a critical less-than-half subsystem size. Below this critical value, the subsystem complexity saturates nearly instantaneously rather than exhibiting a rise and fall. This novel phenomenon, as well as an analogous transition above half system size, provides a target for future studies based on rigorous methods.

22.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-22

Reform of the intermediate level of the health system in the Democratic Republic of the Congo: Adaptations and limits in the stabilization of the personnel of the Provincial Health Division: A cohort study.

Background: Human resources are one of the pillars of health systems. Since the World Health Organization's report on human resources issues, several countries have integrated this component into the various reforms aimed at strengthening their health systems. This study aims to explore the effects of reforming the intermediate level of a health system operating in a fragile state context. Methodology Our study was conducted in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). It was a cohort study of the staff of the 14 Provincial Health Divisions (PHD) out of the 26 existing in the DRC. We established a database of the staff of these 14 PHD from 2016, just after the implementation of the intermediate level reform and the allocation of this staff by the Ministry of Health. We did a recall in 2021, in each of these PHD to survey this staff through a structured questionnaire and supplemented by the files of the agents available in each PHD. Sociodemographic, economic and academic variables were collected and analyzed. Data were entered into an Excel 2016 database and processed with SPSS software version 25. The chi-square test was used for comparison of proportions with a statistical significance level of p < 0.05. Risk ratios ratios (RR) and their 95% confidence intervals were calculated as measures of association. The error threshold was set at 5%. Results A total of 657 agents with an average age of 45.2 years had been identified in 2016 at the start of the survey and in 2021, 118 or 18% of them were no longer part of the PHD agents. Among the causes of absence noted: 48% of agents placed on leave, 16% promoted to other functions within the health system, 16% desertion and dismissal and 11% cases of death. 19.8% of absentees are executives, 19.5% men against 10.3% women; 22.3% of absentees in unstable provinces against 16.6% in stable ones. The factors associated with the absence of agents in the PHD remain the reaching of retirement age [RR (95% CI) = 5.5 (1.2-24.9) ]and male agents [RR (95% CI) = 3.2 (1.3-7.9)]. Among the agents who remained, 92% kept their initial position, 6% were subject to an internal permutation accompanied by a promotion. The factors associated with the stability of human resources at the level of the Provincial Health Division are: female gender, manager with experience or seniority > 5 years, Age > 35 years, Stable province, Presence of a partner bonus. Conclusion Even in a crisis and fragile context, health system reform is possible. It is possible to organize staff recruitment through a selection process independent of the political authorities of the Ministry of Health and supported by the technical services of the Ministry and partners . Experience and the presence of a financial bonus are motivating factors for staff stability. The involvement of Technical and Financial Support Partners in the recruitment process helped the Ministry of Health to minimize political influence in the recruitment of middle-level executives.

23.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

The Theory of Mind Utility: Formal Specification of a Mentalizing Mechanism

arXiv:2606.12721v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Inferring others' beliefs requires more than reading surface signals; it requires tracking who told them what, in what order, and how credibly. The Theory of Mind Utility (ToM-U) formalizes this epistemic state inference problem at the computational level of analysis, specifying what mentalizing computes and why without commitment to algorithmic or neural implementation. ToM-U achieves this by constructing Local Epistemic World Models (LEWMs) – directed typed graphs that represent agents, state nodes, and the epistemic relationships among them – and evaluating discrete candidate LEWMs against observed behavior until one achieves sufficient confidence. Five formal definitions specify the LEWM structure, agent node properties including ordered information access history, a bounded proliferation mechanism for recursive mentalizing, three inference procedures, and a residue function that captures the structured trace left by failed mentalizing attempts. ToM-U differs from Bayesian Theory of Mind and adjacent formal accounts, which presuppose rather than derive belief states, and from simulation theory and theory-theory, which lack a formal apparatus for epistemic state inference. The architecture generates directional, falsifiable predictions about mentalizing failure that follow from structural properties of the model rather than auxiliary assumptions, and positions ToM-U as a domain-agnostic mechanism upstream of goal inference and other downstream social cognitive processes.

24.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Reinforcement Learning for LLM-based Event Forecasting

arXiv:2606.15917v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We use Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO), a recently devised sample and memory efficient reinforcement learning method, to finetune pretrained LLMs in the range of 1.5B to 14B parameters equipped with the ability to get current information through the use of a Wikipedia revisions tool, or news summaries, to forecast real events beyond the knowledge cutoff of the LLM, as well as problems made to simulate different aspects of the dynamics of that training. We use the results of these experiments to comment on the scaling capability of LLMs for forecasting, as well as classify how judgmental forecasting fits into the verifiable/unverifiable domain taxonomy, considering the impact of the inherent aleatoric uncertainty when forecasting future events (e.g. the roll of a die). As a result of the GRPO training, we manage to bring a 1.5B parameter transformer (Qwen 2.5 1.5B) to forecasting performance superior to Claude Sonnet 3.5 over the same dataset as measured by cross entropy from the market agreed probabilities. We also discuss various dead ends on the path to this result.

25.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-17

Evaluating Uplift Modeling under Structural Biases: Insights into Metric Stability and Model Robustness

arXiv:2603.20775v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: In personalized marketing, uplift models estimate the incremental effect of an intervention by modeling how customer behavior would change under alternative treatments using counterfactual analysis. However, real-world marketing data often exhibit various biases, such as selection bias, spillover effects, measurement error, and unobserved confounding. These biases can adversely affect both the accuracy of uplift estimation and the validity of evaluation metrics. Despite the importance of bias-aware assessment, there remains a lack of systematic studies evaluating how different models and metrics perform under such biased conditions. To bridge this gap, we design a systematic benchmarking framework. Unlike standard predictive tasks, real-world uplift datasets inherently lack counterfactual ground truth. This limitation renders the direct validation of evaluation metrics infeasible and prevents the precise quantification of biases. Therefore, a semi-synthetic approach serves as a critical enabler for systematic benchmarking. This approach effectively bridges the gap by retaining real-world feature dependencies while providing the ground truth needed to isolate structural biases. Our investigations reveal that (i) uplift targeting and prediction can manifest as distinct objectives, where proficiency in one does not ensure efficacy in the other; (ii) while many models exhibit inconsistent performance under diverse biases, TARNet shows notable robustness, providing insights for subsequent model design; (iii) the stability of evaluation metrics is linked to their mathematical alignment with the ATE, suggesting that ATE-approximating metrics yield more consistent model rankings under structural data imperfections. These findings suggest the need for more robust uplift models and evaluation metrics under real-world data imperfections.