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01.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-16

The Quantum Transition State

Authors:
Pouya Khazaei↗

arXiv:2606.10266v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: The transition state – the critical configuration separating reactants from products – is the central organizing concept of chemical reaction rate theory, yet for nearly a century it has been thought to have no exact quantum counterpart: the recrossing-free, one-way flux through a transition state appears to demand simultaneous knowledge of position and momentum, in conflict with the uncertainty principle. We show this obstruction is illusory and construct the quantum transition state directly from the exact quantum flow. Its stable and unstable invariant manifolds intersect in a unique bounded trajectory – the quantum transition-state trajectory – anchoring a moving dividing surface that each reactive characteristic crosses exactly once, yielding a one-way flux of the standard quantum probability current. The geometric framework underlying classical transition-state theory thus survives intact in exact quantum mechanics, in a fundamentally quantum form.

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02.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-17

Analysis of the asymmetric shelf shuffle

Authors:
Raghavendra Tripathi↗

arXiv:2606.18047v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In an asymmetric shelf shuffle, a deck of $n$ cards is dealt sequentially from the bottom and assigned one of the $m$ shelves uniformly at random. The card is placed at the top of the assigned shelf with probability $p$, and at the bottom of the assigned shelf with probability $(1-p)$. Analysis of the shelf shuffle has gained much attention recently, and the case $p=1/2$ was first treated by Diaconis–Fulman–Holmes [Ann. Appl. Prob. 23 (2013), no. 4, 1692–1720]. In this paper, we extend the analysis of the shelf shuffle to general $p\in (0, 1)$. In particular, we study the distribution of cycles, cycle lengths, number of descents, number of valleys, number of inversions, and the RSK shape of a permutation obtained from an asymmetric shelf shuffle. Our results extend the analysis of Diaconis–Fulman–Holmes to arbitrary $p$. Furthermore, our analysis of the distribution of descents and inversions is new even for $p=1/2$.

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03.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-17

Model Validation of Agentic AI Systems: A POMDP-Based Framework for Belief-State, Forecast, and Policy Validation

Authors:
Matthew Francis Dixon↗

arXiv:2606.17383v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Agentic artificial intelligence systems introduce a new class of model risk. Unlike traditional predictive models, autonomous agents continuously acquire information, form beliefs regarding latent states of the environment, generate forecasts, select actions, and adapt their behavior over time. Existing validation methodologies focus primarily on predictive accuracy and therefore provide limited insight into the quality of the underlying decision process. This paper proposes a model validation framework for agentic AI based on Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs). The framework decomposes autonomous decision making into information, beliefs, forecasts, actions, and utility, allowing each component to be validated independently. Large language models (LLMs) are formalized as approximate Bayesian filtering operators, and a model-risk taxonomy is developed encompassing state-space, filtering, forecast, policy, utility-specification, and parameter risks. The model risk validation methodology is demonstrated through a portfolio-management case study in which an agent infers latent market regimes from market and macroeconomic information, generates belief-conditioned forecasts, and constructs portfolios using a Black–Litterman framework. Empirical validation combines performance analysis, belief calibration diagnostics, coverage tests, ablation studies, and parameter-sensitivity analysis. The results indicate that latent-state inference contributes independently to decision quality and that the principal conclusions remain robust across a broad range of parameter values. The principal contribution of the paper is a practical framework for extending established model risk management concepts to autonomous AI systems and providing a rigorous foundation for their validation, governance, and monitoring.

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04.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-24

Uncertainty-Aware Longitudinal Forecasting of Alzheimer's Disease Progression Using Deep Learning

Authors:
Arya Hariharan↗Shreyank N Gowda↗Anala M R↗

arXiv:2606.24604v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Longitudinal modelling of Alzheimer's disease progression is clinically useful only if it can describe not just the most likely next diagnosis, but how a patient may evolve over time and how reliable that forecast is. Most deep learning approaches reduce this problem to single-step classification, treating cognitively normal, mild cognitive impairment, and dementia as flat categories while providing limited insight into how uncertainty accumulates across future visits. We propose a probabilistic framework that combines ordinal diagnosis prediction, multi-horizon trajectory generation, and decomposed uncertainty estimation. A Temporal Fusion Transformer encoder is adapted with a CORAL ordinal output layer, asymmetric loss weighting, and converter oversampling to respect disease-stage ordering and improve sensitivity to MCI-to-dementia transitions. Conditioned on the learned patient-context representation, an autoregressive Mixture Density Network generates five-year probabilistic trajectories for diagnosis state, CDR Sum of Boxes, MMSE orientation, and hippocampal volume. On ADNI, the model outperforms linear, recurrent, and transformer baselines for next-visit diagnosis prediction, with the strongest gains on MCI-versus-dementia discrimination. Generated trajectories achieve near-nominal 90% credible interval coverage, widening uncertainty across the forecast horizon, and biomarker dynamics consistent with expected Alzheimer's disease progression. We further separate aleatoric from epistemic uncertainty using analytic mixture variance and a five-member bootstrap ensemble, which provides the strongest encoder diversity and output-level epistemic signal. Epistemic uncertainty is higher for rare progression archetypes, MCI and dementia patients, and under external evaluation on OASIS-3, where it increases alongside prediction error.

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05.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-24

VistaRef: Boosting Visual Spatial Orientation Awareness for Pointing-to-Object Detection

Authors:
Ling Li↗Zhizhen Cai↗Xinkun Wu↗Ziyu Zhu↗Jiaqing Lyu↗Bowen Liu↗Zhidong Deng↗

Grounding deictic gestures in natural images is fundamental to AR and human-robot collaboration, providing a basis for seamless spatial interaction. While Transformer-based visual models have achieved significant progress in general object detection, their global attention mechanisms often neglect micro-geometric relationships, degrading orientation accuracy. In pointing tasks, this deficiency manifests as an inability to accurately capture the pointing ray implied by finger poses, which results in pointing drift and localization ambiguity when dealing with distant or densely packed objects. To address this, we propose VistaRef, a framework designed to explicitly enhance spatial orientation awareness. First, we develop the Local Hand Entity Modeling (LHEM) module, which incorporates hand-pose embeddings to strengthen the model's capability to capture subtle finger deviations. Second, drawing inspiration from multi-view geometry, we construct the Geometric Ray Modeling (GRM) module to transform implicit orientation information into explicit spatial geometric features, guiding feature aggregation and deep fusion via attention mechanisms. Furthermore, we introduce a novel Orientation-Consistent Alignment Loss (OCAL) to synergistically supervise hand presence and pointing consistency, ensuring that all architectural improvements collectively serve the core objective of spatial localization. Experimental results demonstrate that VistaRef significantly outperforms the baseline, achieving a 14-point absolute gain in grounding accuracy. Qualitative analysis further confirms that VistaRef effectively models the geometric correlation from hand to target, bridging the spatial perception gap inherent in traditional Transformers for complex scenarios. Code: https://github.com/lingli1724/VistaRef.

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06.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Surrogate-Assisted Framework for SI-Compliant Interconnect Design Optimization Using the Earth Mover's Distance

Authors:
Emre Ecik↗Werner John↗Julian With\"oft↗Ralf Br\"uning↗J\"urgen G\"otze↗

arXiv:2606.15234v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: This work presents a deterministic, machine-assisted framework for SI-compliant PCB design based on the Earth Mover's Distance (EMD). In contrast to conventional surrogate-based optimization methods that rely on iterative black-box search procedures, the proposed approach follows an interpretable, sequential evaluation strategy. Neural surrogate models are first used to efficiently predict waveform describing features from topology-dependent design parameters. A decision tree then acts as a physically motivated quality gate that identifies SI-compliant waveforms according to predefined SI criteria. Within the resulting valid solution space, the Earth Mover's Distance is employed as a similarity metric to rank candidate designs according to their proximity to an ideal reference signal. This enables not only the deterministic identification of admissible parameter regions but also a transparent prioritization of physically superior solutions without inverse modeling or stochastic search procedures. The methodology is demonstrated using a large-scale set of simulated DDR3 fly-by waveforms. By combining surrogate prediction, interpretable classification, and EMD-based waveform evaluation, the framework provides an explainable and computationally efficient alternative to conventional optimization strategies for supporting PCB development with AI-based methods.

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07.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-24

Reconstructing GRACE Terrestrial Water Storage with Spatio-Temporal Graph Neural Networks: An Application to South America

Authors:
Lukas Arzoumanidis↗Lara Johannsen↗Klara Middendorf↗Annette Eicker↗Youness Dehbi↗

arXiv:2606.23833v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Terrestrial water storage (TWS) integrates snow, soil moisture, surface water, and groundwater and is a key indicator of how climate variability and human activity reshape the global water cycle. The GRACE and GRACE-FO satellite missions provide the only direct, globally consistent observations of TWS change, but their record only begins in 2002 which is too short for many climate-scale analyses. We present a deep learning application that reconstructs monthly GRACE-like TWS anomalies (TWSA) back to 1940 by learning the relationship between daily ERA5 meteorological forcing (precipitation, evapotranspiration, runoff) and monthly GRACE observations. In contrast to prior reconstruction approaches based on grid-cell-wise regression, CNNs, or LSTMs, we adapt a multi-variate time series graph neural network (MTGNN) architecture, which was originally developed for mobility and traffic forecasting on urban sensor networks to this satellite-geodesy task. Spatial dependencies are encoded in a static, interpretable hybrid adjacency matrix that combines geodesic proximity with lagged correlations of climatic time series, capturing both local hydrological coupling and large-scale teleconnections. The reconstruction achieves a grid-cell Pearson correlation of 0.69, a basin-mean correlation of 0.94, and a near-zero bias, and it reproduces the spatial fingerprints of the 2015/16 El Niño and 2020/21 La Niña events. A systematic comparison with established reconstruction approaches (GTWS-MLrec, RM-REC, GRAiCE) shows that the graph-based model is statistically competitive at basin scale, reaching a correlation within 0.025 of the best baseline while using only roughly half to a tenth of the predictors the other models require and revealing characteristic weaknesses in arid regions in all models. The complete implementation is publicly available at github.com/hcu-cml/MTGNN-TWS-Reconstruction-GRACE

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08.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

From Tokens to Policy: Causal and Interpretable Heterogeneous Treatment Effects Identification

Authors:
Riccardo Cadei↗Frank Otchere↗Nyasha Tirivayi↗Gustavo Angeles Tagliaferro↗Falco J. Bargagli-Stoffi↗Francesco Locatello↗

arXiv:2606.17010v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Heterogeneous Treatment Effect (HTE) identification is crucial to explain the impact of an intervention and optimize our policies accordingly. Existing approaches trade expressivity for interpretability, but, if some active heterogeneity drivers are unmeasured, methods at both ends of this spectrum allow for spurious HTE characterization with no causal reading. In this work, we focus on controlled experiments and argue that an oracle HTE causal characterization via the latent interactors is now within reach, thanks to (i) more extensive pre-treatment measurements, i.e., multi-modal and multi-view, and (ii) scalable representations with minimal human supervision. We then re-frame HTE identification as a Markov-blanket discovery problem on a sufficient and aligned pre-treatment representation, and introduce Neural EXposure Interaction Search (NEXIS), an iterative procedure with provable and empirically validated consistent selection. We deploy NEXIS on two anti-poverty programs in Africa, augmenting each with satellite imagery capturing previously unmeasured environmental effect modifiers, leading to novel, interpretable and prescriptive guidelines to optimize the programs' next iterations.

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09.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-19

An alternative approach to well-posedness of McKean-Vlasov equations arising in Consensus-Based Optimization

Authors:
Alessandro Baldi↗

arXiv:2512.19446v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: In this work we study the mean-field description of Consensus-Based Optimization (CBO), a derivative-free particle optimization method. Such a description is provided by a non-local SDE of McKean-Vlasov type, whose fields lack of global Lipschitz continuity. We propose a novel approach to prove the well-posedness of the mean-field CBO equation based on a truncation argument. The latter is performed through the introduction of a cut-off function, defined on the space of probability measures, acting on the fields. This procedure allows us to study the well-posedness problem in the classical framework of Sznitman. Through this argument, we recover the established result on the existence of strong solutions, and we extend the class of solutions for which pathwise uniqueness holds.

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10.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-15

Trust but Verify: Mitigating Medical Hallucinations via Post-Hoc Adversarial Auditing and Multi-Agent Feedback Loops

Authors:
Muhammad Osama↗Maheera Amjad↗Zartasha Mustansar↗Arslan Shaukat↗Muhammad U. S. Khan↗

arXiv:2606.14149v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in healthcare settings, yet their tendency to hallucinate poses risks when clinical decisions are involved. This study examine whether LLMs recommend recently banned or withdrawn pharmaceuticals when answering clinical questions and tests an agent-based method for reducing such errors. We developed a five-agent "Trust but Verify" system using a single LLM backbone. To measure regulatory knowledge obsolescence, we created an adversarial dataset of 103 clinical MCQs where historically correct answers now refer to banned substances. This scale ensures statistical significance across various therapeutic classes. We evaluated three open-access model families (GPT-OSS, Llama-3, Falcon-3) under vanilla and agentic conditions. Performance was measured via pointwise score, label accuracy, Hallucination Error Rate (HER), and Component Fidelity (CF) score. We also observed clinical safety regression in proprietary models. In default configurations, all models showed high hallucination rates, consistently selecting banned drugs that matched training data patterns. Our proposed agentic architecture reduced HER by approximately 53% across models. Pointwise scores shifted from -0.25 (unsafe recommendation) toward 0.0 (appropriate refusal). The safety audit intercepted dangerous outputs even when models' parametric knowledge favored the banned substance. The proposed multi-agent framework offers a model-agnostic method for enforcing regulatory compliance that prioritizes patient safety over fluent text generation. Our work demonstrates a practical approach for deploying autonomous AI systems in safety-critical healthcare settings. It shows how real-time regulatory data can be integrated into LLM pipelines to support clinical decision-making.

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11.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-25

Uncertainty-aware reinforcement learning for chemical language models

Authors:
Borja Medina↗Jon Paul Janet↗

arXiv:2606.24990v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Reinforcement Learning (RL) has become a powerful paradigm for de novo molecular design, enabling Chemical Language Models (CLMs) to navigate and explore the chemical space while optimizing specific desired properties. However, the existing RL frameworks treat all scoring functions as deterministic oracles, neglecting the inherent uncertainty attached to the predictions of the different molecular properties. This can lead to the exploration of highly-uncertain regions of the chemical space, focusing on the generation of highly scored molecules which are poorly supported by the training data. This can destabilize the optimization process, yielding predictions that are far from their true values. We propose and compare two complementary ways of incorporating predictive uncertainty into RL. In the first one, uncertainty is treated as an additional optimization objective and incorporated along with the rest of the scoring functions, allowing the policy to trade off exploitation against reliability. Secondly, uncertainty is used to modulate policy updates, reducing the influence of molecules whose properties lie far outside the scoring function confidence domain. Both approaches were evaluated across three different settings: (i) a controlled model system, in which the prediction error is modeled as a Gaussian distribution, with a variance proportional to the distance to the training data; and two real-world tasks, making use of (ii) ChemProp models and (iii) a Conformal Prediction wrapper applied to a Random forest classifier. We show that uncertainty-aware RL enables CLMs to explore chemical space more robustly by favoring lower-uncertainty regions. This leads to more reliable hit discovery without compromising molecular score, increasing the true hit rate by 0.25 (from 0.5 to 0.75), and nearly doubling the total number of true hits.

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12.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-17

Million-scale multimodal pollen microscopy with expert-guided foundation models

Authors:
Andr\'as Biricz↗Bj\"orn Gedda↗Don\'at Magyar↗Antonio Spanu↗J\'anos Fillinger↗P\'eter Pollner↗Istv\'an Csabai↗

Automated pollen identification from microscopy remains a bottleneck in aerobiology, palaeoecology and biodiversity monitoring, because scalable systems must generalise across specimen preparation, scanner settings and geographic origins while retaining palynological interpretability. To address this gap, we present a million-scale multimodal pollen microscopy resource, Pollen AI Atlas, assembled from pure-species whole-slide bright-field images spanning four geographic origins, four scanner settings and 46 taxon labels across 31 botanical families. Seeded by one manually selected exemplar per source slide, token-level mining and filtering produced 1,511,390 released grain detections with 99.6\% proposal precision in expert-curated test regions. Each detection was paired with machine-generated grain-level morphological captions from five open-weight vision-language models, guided by expert-verified palynological anchors, yielding structured descriptions of aperture systems, wall ornamentation, shape and size. Among the evaluated models, Gemma4 provided the most controlled primary caption set, combining tight length control, no leakage and the strongest text-retrieval performance. Baseline benchmarks with frozen visual features reached 88.16\% top-1 accuracy, while cross-regional retrieval showed that caption-derived text embeddings remained robust when image similarity degraded (mAP@20 0.811 versus 0.262). Released data, annotations, captions, splits, code, and weights provide a benchmark for pollen recognition, cross-regional domain adaptation and domain-specific multimodal microscopy learning.

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13.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

Continuous Cross-Domain Traffic State Prediction via Memory-Augmented Graph Liquid Time-Constant Networks

Authors:
Jinrong Xiang↗Ming Xu↗

arXiv:2606.15807v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Traffic state prediction is a fundamental task in intelligent transportation systems. In practical applications, some regions suffer from limited traffic observations due to insufficient sensing infrastructure, making cross-domain knowledge transfer an important solution for data-scarce traffic prediction. However, existing cross-domain traffic prediction methods still face several limitations, including coarse-grained source-target adaptation, limited capability in handling unseen target-domain patterns, and insufficient modeling of continuous traffic dynamics under irregular or heterogeneous temporal conditions. To address these issues, this paper proposes a continuous cross-domain traffic prediction framework, termed Memory-Augmented Graph Liquid Time-Constant Network (MA-GLTC). Specifically, we first construct spatio-temporal units (STUs) to decompose traffic networks into transferable local units, enabling fine-grained knowledge alignment across domains. Then, a graph liquid time-constant network (GLTC) is developed to model graph-coupled traffic evolution in continuous time. Different from generic graph neural ODE-based models, GLTC introduces graph-coupled recurrent conductance into liquid time-constant dynamics, allowing node states to evolve with leakage, adaptive time constants, and neighborhood-aware feedback. Furthermore, a Memory-based Transfer Storage (MTS) mechanism is designed to preserve source-domain knowledge, retrieve matched traffic patterns, and update reliable target-domain patterns when unseen states emerge. Experiments on five public traffic datasets demonstrate that MA-GLTC consistently outperforms representative innerdomain and cross-domain baselines in both short-term and longterm prediction tasks. Compared with the second-best method, MA-GLTC reduces the average prediction errors by 3.02%, 0.33%, 8.92%, 10.09%, and 2.11%, respectively.

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14.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-11

Fermions are fundamentally more nonlocal than Bosons

Authors:
Fatemeh Moradi Kalarde↗Sadra Boreiri↗Xiangling Xu↗Lucas Tendick↗Salman Beigi↗Paolo Perinotti↗Tommaso Guaita↗Marc-Olivier Renou↗

arXiv:2606.12363v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Bell's theorem shows that entangled quantum particles can exhibit correlations that classical particles cannot reproduce without an additional nonlocal resource, such as communication. In this sense, quantum particles are fundamentally more nonlocal than classical ones, and entanglement becomes unavoidable in physics. Here we prove the analogous result within quantum theory itself: indistinguishable fermions transmitted through a quantum network can generate correlations that distinguishable particles or indistinguishable bosons cannot reproduce without additional communication. In the same sense, fermions are fundamentally more nonlocal than bosons or distinguishable particles, motivating fermionic anticommutation and indistinguishability as unavoidable operational resources. Our result further implies that fermions can strictly surpass all qubit-based protocols for certain distributed computing tasks, demonstrating that a complete understanding of information processing requires going beyond qubits to fermionic information carriers - febits.

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15.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-16

Non-Markovianity-based ultrasensitive parameter estimation

Authors:
Olli Siltanen↗

arXiv:2211.05142v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Accurate parameter estimation is a central task in quantum metrology and sensing, where quantum resources can provide precision beyond classical limits. In realistic settings, however, system-environment interactions lead to decoherence, reducing these strategies to their classical counterparts. Noise is typically classified as Markovian or non-Markovian, with the latter often preserving quantum coherence longer and thus supporting better metrological performance. Still, the absence of noise is generally considered ideal. In this work, we uncover a striking reversal: certain non-Markovian environments not only outperform Markovian ones - including their quantum Cramér-Rao bounds - but can also surpass the entirely noiseless case. We demonstrate these findings numerically for an all-optical setup, which is experimentally feasible and can be extended to other physical platforms. In general, our results open new avenues for noise-assisted quantum metrology beyond conventional limits.

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16.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

MAND: Modality-Aware Novelty Detection for Open-World Egocentric Activity Recognition

Authors:
Hyejeong Im↗Wonseon Lim↗Dae-Won Kim↗

Multimodal egocentric activity recognition integrates visual and inertial cues for robust first-person behavior understanding. However, deploying such systems in open-world environments requires detecting novel activities while continuously learning from non-stationary data streams. Existing methods rely on the main fused logits for novelty scoring, without fully exploiting the complementary evidence available from individual modalities. Because these logits are often dominated by RGB, cues from other modalities, particularly IMU, remain underutilized, and this imbalance worsens as catastrophic forgetting accumulates. To address this, we propose MAND, a modality-aware framework for multimodal egocentric open-world continual learning. At inference, Modality-aware Adaptive Scoring (MoAS) adaptively adjusts modality contributions using sample-wise reliability and refines novelty scoring with deviation and disagreement penalties. During training, Modality-aware Representation Stabilization Training (MoRST) preserves the discriminative capacity of each modality across tasks through modality-specific heads and modality-wise logit distillation. Experiments on a public multimodal egocentric benchmark show that MAND consistently improves novel activity detection and known-class accuracy while substantially reducing FPR95, indicating more reliable open-world recognition. The source code is available at \href{https://github.com/HyeJeongIm/MAND}{github.com/HyeJeongIm/MAND}.

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17.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-15

Towards Efficient Large Language Reasoning Models via Extreme-Ratio Chain-of-Thought Compression

Authors:
Yuntian Tang↗Bohan Jia↗Wenxuan Huang↗Lianyue Zhang↗Jiao Xie↗Wenxi Li↗Wei Li↗Jie Hu↗Xinghao Chen Rongrong Ji↗Shaohui Lin↗

arXiv:2602.08324v5 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning successfully enhances the reasoning capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs), yet it incurs substantial computational overhead for inference. Existing CoT compression methods often suffer from a critical loss of logical fidelity at high compression ratios, resulting in significant performance degradation. To achieve high-fidelity, fast reasoning, we propose a novel EXTreme-RAtio Chain-of-Thought Compression framework, termed Extra-CoT, which aggressively reduces the token budget while preserving answer accuracy. To generate reliable, high-fidelity supervision, we first train a dedicated semantically-preserved compressor on mathematical CoT data with fine-grained annotations. An LLM is then fine-tuned on these compressed pairs via a mixed-ratio supervised fine-tuning (SFT), teaching it to follow a spectrum of compression budgets and providing a stable initialization for reinforcement learning (RL). We further propose Constrained and Hierarchical Ratio Policy Optimization (CHRPO) to explicitly incentivize question-solving ability under lower budgets by a hierarchical reward. Experiments on three mathematical reasoning benchmarks show the superiority of Extra-CoT. For example, on MATH-500 using Qwen3-1.7B, Extra-CoT achieves over 73\% token reduction with an accuracy improvement of 0.6\%, significantly outperforming state-of-the-art (SOTA) methods. Our source codes have been released at https://github.com/Mwie1024/Extra-CoT.

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18.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-25

Inverse Reinforcement Learning for Interpretable Keystroke Biomarkers in Parkinson's Disease

Authors:
Navin Bondade↗

arXiv:2606.25270v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Keystroke dynamics have been explored extensively as a passive digital biomarker for Parkinson's disease (PD), typically by extracting summary statistics from typing timing and training a classifier to discriminate PD from healthy controls. We instead apply inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) to keystroke data, modeling each keystroke as a discrete choice over typing speed and recovering, per subject, an interpretable reward function that explains their observed timing behavior. To our knowledge this is the first application of IRL to keystroke dynamics. On the public neuroQWERTY MIT-CSXPD dataset (85 subjects, 42 with PD), an initial four-parameter reward decomposition (speed, effort, smoothness, hand-alternation cost) was found to suffer severe feature collinearity between two terms ($r=1.000$ in typical contexts); we diagnose and correct this, yielding an identifiable three-parameter model. The recovered speed-preference weight correlates with UPDRS-III severity at $r=-0.607$ ($p

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19.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-17

Diffuse Interface Energies with Microscopic Heterogeneities II: Rare Events

Authors:
Peter S. Morfe↗Christian Wagner↗

arXiv:2606.17968v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We analyze Allen-Cahn functionals with stationary ergodic coefficients in the regime where the length scale $\delta$ of the heterogeneities is much smaller (microscopic) than the interface width $\epsilon$ (mesoscopic). In a companion paper, we show that if the ratio $\epsilon^{-1} \delta$ vanishes fast enough as $\epsilon \to 0$, then the functionals converge to an effective surface energy where the energy density is determined by homogenization effects originating at microscopic scales. Here we prove that if the ratio $\epsilon^{-1} \delta $ vanishes too slowly, the limit of the functional may actually be smaller than this homogenized energy. We refer to this as the rare events regime. In the case of the random checkerboard in dimension one, we use large deviations techniques to give a complete description of the rare events regime, showing that the limiting energy depends in a nontrivial way on the limit of $\epsilon^{-1} \delta | \log \epsilon |$. We further construct, in any dimension, examples of random media in which rare events become relevant at algebraic scales $\delta \approx \epsilon^{1 + \alpha}$ for an arbitrary $\alpha > 0$, as well as almost periodic examples in which atypical configurations play the same role as rare events.

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20.
PLOS Computational Biology 2026-06-12

A new method for augmenting short time series, with application to pain events in sickle cell disease

Authors:
Kumar Utkarsh↗

by Kumar Utkarsh, Nirmish R. Shah, Tanvi Banerjee, Daniel M. Abrams Researchers across different fields, including but not limited to ecology, biology, and healthcare, often face the challenge of sparse data. Such sparsity can lead to uncertainties, estimation difficulties, and potential biases in modeling. Here we introduce a novel data augmentation method that combines multiple sparse time series datasets when they share similar statistical properties, thereby improving parameter estimation and model selection reliability. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach through validation studies comparing Hawkes and Poisson processes, followed by application to subjective pain dynamics in patients with sickle cell disease (SCD), a condition affecting millions worldwide, particularly those of African, Mediterranean, Middle Eastern, and Indian descent.

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21.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

Can Artificial Intelligence Accelerate Technological Progress? Researchers' Perspectives on AI in Manufacturing and Materials Science

Authors:
John P. Nelson↗Olajide Olugbade↗Philip Shapira↗Justin B. Biddle↗

arXiv:2511.14007v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Artificial intelligence (AI) raises expectations of substantial increases in rates of technological progress, but such anticipations are often not connected to detailed ground-level studies of AI use in innovation processes. Accordingly, it remains unclear how and to what extent AI can accelerate innovation. To help to fill this gap, we explore and assess results from 32 interviews with U.S.-based academic manufacturing and materials sciences researchers experienced with AI and machine learning (ML) techniques. We found that AI was primarily used for modeling of materials and manufacturing processes, facilitating cheaper and more rapid search of design spaces for materials and manufacturing processes alike. Benefits included cost, time, and computation savings in technology development. However, AI/ML tools were unreliable outside design spaces for which dense data were already available; they required skilled and judicious application in tandem with older research techniques; and concerns were raised about the potential to detrimentally circumvent opportunities for disruptive theoretical advancement. Based on these results, we suggest there is reason for optimism about acceleration in sustaining innovations through the use of AI/ML; but that support for conventional empirical, computational, and theoretical research is required to maintain the likelihood of further disruptive advances in manufacturing and materials.

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22.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-25

Certified Robust Invariant Polytope Training in Neural Controlled ODEs

Authors:
Akash Harapanahalli↗Samuel Coogan↗

arXiv:2408.01273v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We propose a framework for training neural network controllers with certified robust forward invariant polytopes. First, we parameterize a family of lifted control systems in a higher dimensional space, where the original neural controlled system evolves on an invariant subspace of each lifted system. We use interval analysis and neural network verifiers to further construct a family of lifted embedding systems, carefully capturing the knowledge of this invariant subspace. If the vector field of any lifted embedding system satisfies a sign constraint at a single point, then a certain convex polytope of the original system is robustly forward invariant. Treating the neural network controller and the lifted system parameters as variables, we propose an algorithm to train controllers with certified forward invariant polytopes in the closed-loop control system. Through two examples, we demonstrate how the simplicity of the sign constraint allows our approach to scale with system dimension to over $50$ states, and outperform state-of-the-art Lyapunov-based sampling approaches in runtime.

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23.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-11

Reinforcement Learning Disrupts Gradient-Based Adversarial Optimization

Authors:
Xinhai Zou↗Chang Zhao↗Alireza Aghabagherloo↗Dave Singel\'ee↗Robin Degraeve↗Bart Preneel↗

arXiv:2606.12251v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Gradient-based adversarial attacks remain a dominant threat to deep neural networks (DNNs), as they exploit gradient information to efficiently optimize adversarial perturbations. To address this, we investigate whether reinforcement learning (RL) training can disrupt the gradient structure used by attackers by training image classifiers with policy-gradient objectives and epsilon-greedy exploration. Through systematic experiments across CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, and ImageNet-100 with multiple architectures, we find that RL-trained classifiers significantly disrupt gradient-based adversarial optimization. To explain this, we conduct a comprehensive mechanism analysis using loss landscape visualization, static and dynamic gradient indicators, and predictive entropy. Our analysis reveals that RL acts as an implicit regularizer, producing models with highly unstable gradient directions and smaller gradient magnitudes. This combination makes each PGD step both unreliable in direction and limited in magnitude, causing gradient-based attacks to fail within practical iteration budgets. We further show that combining RL with adversarial training (RL-adv) provides a dual-layer defense operating at two complementary levels: RL degrades gradient information available to attackers (gradient-level defense), while adversarial training strengthens decision boundaries (boundary-level defense). RL-adv achieves the highest robustness across all major attack types evaluated, including gradient-based (PGD, AutoAttack), transfer-based, and query-based attacks, outperforming SL-adv by a significant margin. These findings identify RL-induced gradient disruption as a complementary robustness mechanism and motivate future research on hybrid SL-RL training schedules that combine SL's efficiency with RL's gradient-regularization properties.

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25.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-17

Clinician knowledge and self-efficacy in snakebite management: A cross-sectional assessment in Northern Uganda

Authors:
Kamugisha↗MUSOKE↗Ssewante↗Bongomin↗

Background: Snakebite envenomation (SBE) is a major public health crisis in rural Uganda, yet it remains a neglected tropical disease. Effective management is often compromised by systemic barriers and a lack of clinician training. This study assessed clinician self-efficacy and objective knowledge regarding SBE management in Northern Uganda. Methods: A descriptive, cross-sectional study was conducted between February and July 2025 among 379 healthcare workers in Gulu, Omoro, and Pader districts. A validated questionnaire was used to collect data on socio-demographics, self-reported efficacy (scale 1-10), and objective knowledge. Knowledge scores [&ge;]70% were categorized as adequate. Multivariable logistic regression identified independent predictors of adequate knowledge, and Spearmans correlation ({rho}) assessed the relationship between knowledge and self-efficacy. Results: The participants had a mean age of 35.6 years (SD {+/-}7.3), were predominantly female (56.5%, 214/379), and most (83.6%, 317/379) practiced at Health Centre III level facilities. While 53.8% (204/379) reported prior training, 48.3% (183/379) of these had not received an update in over 10 years. Adequate knowledge was demonstrated by 51.5% (195/379) of participants. In the multivariable analysis, practicing in Omoro (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 0.3, 95% CI: 0.1-0.6, p < 0.001) or Pader (aOR: 0.2, 95% CI: 0.1-0.4, p < 0.001) was associated with lower odds of adequate knowledge compared to Gulu district. Prior training significantly increased the odds of adequate knowledge (aOR: 2.3, 95% CI: 1.3-4.2, p = 0.006). A moderate positive correlation was observed between self-efficacy and objective knowledge (Spearmans {rho} = 0.33, p < 0.0001). Conclusion: Approximately half of the frontline healthcare workers in Northern Uganda lack adequate knowledge on SBE management, with significant geographic differences and outdated training. The gap between clinician self-efficacy and objective knowledge poses a risk to patient safety. Regular, mandatory refresher training and targeted educational outreach to remote districts are required to reduce SBE-related morbidity and mortality.

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