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01.
PLOS Medicine 2026-05-13

On the evolution of the company we keep: Implications for infectious disease modeling

Authors:

by Joël Mossong Whom we meet shapes how infections spread. Where earlier focus of mathematical epidemiology was on incorporating age, more recent work has begun to reveal the importance of socioeconomic aspects for understanding and managing future epidemics. In this Perspective, Joël Mossong discusses the importance of understanding social contacts and how they have evolved for infectious disease modeling, and the need to factor in additional considerations such as ethic and socioeconomic backgrounds.

02.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-12

A Machine Learning Pipeline for Scalable Annotation of Patient-Ventilator Dyssynchrony from Bedside Ventilator Data

Objective: Patient-ventilator dyssynchrony (PVD) is a common and clinically consequential problem in critically ill patients receiving invasive mechanical ventilation. Yet automated identification of PVD subtypes at scale remains an unmet clinical need, owing to the lack of large annotated bedside waveform datasets. Methods: We developed and validated a semi-supervised algorithm for automated annotation of PVD. In two medical ICUs at a tertiary academic center, bedside devices continuously collected airway flow and pressure waveforms from the ventilators. We developed a software interface with an information retrieval system that grouped similar breaths for expert human review, yielding 1,542,296 labeled breaths across eight categories: 2 labels for breath delivery mode, 5 labels for PVD subtypes, and 1 label denoting a normal breath. Two pulmonary physicians with expertise in ventilator training and education provided the expert reference labels. We trained an initial classification model on a model-derivation set of 771,148 breaths (divided into training and validation) and evaluated it on a hold-out test set of 771,149 breaths A semi-supervised approach was utilized to extend labeling to an additional 12,965,000 unlabeled breaths. Results: The supervised model performed well across all labels, with Macro-F1 scores between 0.96 and 1.00. Semi-supervised learning across 12 rounds expanded the training set from 771,148 to 8,563,995 breaths without significant performance degradation. Conclusion: We developed a practical and scalable system for automated PVD annotation that performed well across all subtypes. This work provides a reproducible foundation for automated PVD labeling to support the development of machine-learning-based clinical decision support systems for identifying patient-level asynchrony.

03.
Nature (Science) 2026-06-24

Disparate privacy risks from medical AI

Medical artificial intelligence (AI) models hold the promise to improve global access to high-quality diagnostics1. However, the training data underlying these models often contain sensitive patient information that may be exposed through privacy attacks2–7. Previous research has primarily quantified the success of these attacks in aggregate, across all records in a dataset. Thus, the privacy risk faced by individual patients, who often contribute multiple similar records to a training dataset, is poorly understood. Here we present one of the first patient-level privacy audits of AI models for medical diagnostic applications. We focus on membership inference attacks2–4 (MIAs), which seek to determine whether the data of a given individual were used to train a model. Across a diverse range of medical datasets, we show that MIAs can achieve near-perfect success rates for individual patients, even when the aggregate performance does not substantially deviate from random guessing. We further find that the number of patients with high attack success increases substantially with model capacity, and that underrepresented groups—stratified by disease status, self-reported race, insurance, sex or imaging protocol—face disproportionately high attack success. Together, our findings show that aggregate privacy metrics can severely underestimate individual privacy risk. Whether the disparate risk profiles we observe extend to attacks beyond MIAs remains an open question, motivating the further development of risk assessment and mitigation techniques that cater to all data-contributing patients. AI models for medical diagnostics are vulnerable to membership inference attacks.

04.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

PolicyGuard: Towards Test-time and Step-level Adversary Defense for Reinforcement Learning Agent

arXiv:2606.12896v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: While real-world applications of reinforcement learning (RL) are becoming increasingly popular, the security of RL systems deserve more attention and exploration. In particular, recent work has revealed that RL agents are vulnerable to backdoor attacks, where a victim agent behaves normally under standard conditions but executes malicious actions when a specific trigger is activated. Existing backdoor defenses for RL either require access to the agent's internal parameters, operate only at the model or trajectory level, or are limited to specific attack types. To ensure the security of RL agents, we propose \texttt{PolicyGuard}, a test-time step-level backdoor defense which leverages Gaussian Process (GP) posterior variance and adapts pseudo trajectories to enable uncertainty computation for individual time step. Besides, we also provide theoretical foundations to explain the efficacy of GP posterior variance. Extensive experiments across seven RL games demonstrate that PolicyGuard achieves state-of-the-art detection performance in most cases, with average AUROC of 0.856 for perturbation-based attacks and 0.859 for adversary-agent attacks.

05.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-12

MAMVI: 3D Test-Time Adaptation via Masked Multi-View Point Clouds

3D point cloud models suffer significant performance degradation under distribution shifts caused by sensor noise, occlusions, and environmental changes. Test-time adaptation (TTA) has emerged as a practical paradigm for mitigating this issue during inference. Recently, leveraging multi-view augmentation has shown promise in improving 3D TTA performance. However, existing multi-view approaches are often constrained by sequential optimization that treats each view independently. This sequential optimization leads to substantial inference latency due to repetitive optimization steps, making real-time adaptation impractical. To address this, we propose Masked Multi-View Test-Time Adaptation (MAMVI), which replaces sequential optimization with a unified single-step adaptation. Specifically, MAMVI utilizes a hybrid masking strategy that combines fixed ratios for stability with Beta-distributed sampling for diversity. By aggregating losses across multiple views, MAMVI performs adaptation through a single backward pass based on multi-view consensus. Additionally, a confidence-based adaptive learning rate is used to dynamically adjust the adaptation intensity for each sample. Extensive experiments on ModelNet-40C, ShapeNet-C, and ScanObjectNN-C demonstrate that MAMVI achieves state-of-the-art accuracy on ShapeNet-C and ScanObjectNN-C. Moreover, it remains competitive on ModelNet-40C while delivering 4.9-8.9 times faster inference, making it highly suitable for real-time applications. Our code is available at https://github.com/Inseok-kong/MAMVI

06.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-24

Wigner's Phase Space Current for Variable Beam Splitters – Phase Space Rotations and Newtonian Trajectories

arXiv:2606.24334v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Beam splitters allow us to superpose two continuous single mode quantum systems. To study the behaviour of beam splitters' strongly mode mixing dynamics we consider variable beam splitters acting on Wigner's phase space distribution, W , the evolution of which is governed by the continuity-equation {\partial \tau} W = - {\nabla} J. We derive the form of the corresponding Wigner current, J. J's form allows us to use a classical trajectories-approach to analyze the influence of the two modes on each other. We show that the dynamics for variable beam splitters amounts to a rotation confined within the plane of the two positions together with the same simultaneous rotation confined within the plane of the two momenta. In this way explicit and very transparent expressions for the rotated Wigner distributions and Wigner currents can be given in terms of classical trajectories. This helps us to gain deeper insights and perform geometrical analyses of the mixing of modes at beam splitters.

07.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-11

When Roleplaying, Do Models Believe What They Say?

Language models can state that "the Earth orbits the Sun" and, when role-playing Aristotle, assert the opposite. Recent work argues that persona adoption is fundamental to how language models operate, with models constantly selecting the most appropriate persona for a given context. Does such role-playing merely change the model's outputs, or does it also affect what the model internally represents as truthful? We study this question with linear truth probes, applying them to LLMs role-playing historical personas whose likely beliefs differ from modern consensus. For each persona, we compare false claims the persona would likely have endorsed (*era-believed*) with topic-matched false claims they would not have endorsed (*era-false*). Across prompting, in-context learning, and supervised fine-tuning, persona induction suppresses era-believed statements less than equally false alternatives, yet they remain classified as false overall. Role-play therefore shifts what these models say more than what they internally represent as true. We contrast this with models trained on harmful advice that exhibit Emergent Misalignment (EM). Across three model families (Qwen 2.5 14B, Qwen 3 8B, and Llama 3.3 70B), their false claims move substantially toward the true region of probe space, are defended under challenge roughly half the time versus about a sixth for role-play, and are used in downstream reasoning. Role-play and Emergent Misalignment thus are points on a spectrum of belief internalization, where role-play changes what a model says with little representational change, while Emergent Misalignment shifts the internal representation of false claims without fully marking them as true.

08.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-15

Uniform-in-time error estimates for McKean-Vlasov SDEs with common noise and stochastic algorithms

arXiv:2606.14170v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In this work, by construct an asymptotic coupling by reflection, we first explore the uniform-in-time estimate on probability distance for two measure-valued processes induced by a McKean-Vlasov SDE with common noise and an interacting particle system, where the drift terms are dissipative merely in the long distance. As direct applications of this estimate, we establish the uniform-in-time error estimates for the numerical solutions derived via backward/tamed/adaptive Euler-Maruyama methods. Moreover, as another direct application, the uniform-in-time conditional propagation of chaos is quantified.

09.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-18

Skill-MAS: Evolving Meta-Skill for Automatic Multi-Agent Systems

arXiv:2606.18837v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large Language Model (LLM)-based automatic Multi-Agent Systems (MAS) generation has become a crucial frontier for tackling complex tasks. However, existing methods face a dilemma between model capability and experience retention. Inference-time MAS leverages frozen frontier LLMs but repeats identical searches without learning from past experience. Conversely, Training-time MAS internalizes experience via gradient updates but is constrained by the low capability ceiling of smaller models, and is hard to scale to large frontier LLMs. To bridge this gap, we propose Skill-MAS, a novel third path that decouples experience retention from parametric updates by conceptualizing the high-level orchestration capability as an evolvable Meta-Skill. Skill-MAS refines this architectural knowledge through a closed optimization loop: (1) Multi-Trajectory Rollout samples a behavioral distribution for each task under the current Meta-Skill; and (2) Selective Reflection adaptively selects priority tasks and applies hierarchical contrastive analysis to distill systemic experience into generalizable, strategy-level principles. Extensive experiments across four complex benchmarks and four distinct LLMs demonstrate that Skill-MAS not only achieves remarkable performance gains but also maintains a favorable cost-performance trade-off. Further analysis reveals that the evolved Meta-Skills are highly robust and exhibit strong transferability across unseen tasks and different LLMs.

10.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-11

Reinforcement Learning Disrupts Gradient-Based Adversarial Optimization

arXiv:2606.12251v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Gradient-based adversarial attacks remain a dominant threat to deep neural networks (DNNs), as they exploit gradient information to efficiently optimize adversarial perturbations. To address this, we investigate whether reinforcement learning (RL) training can disrupt the gradient structure used by attackers by training image classifiers with policy-gradient objectives and epsilon-greedy exploration. Through systematic experiments across CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, and ImageNet-100 with multiple architectures, we find that RL-trained classifiers significantly disrupt gradient-based adversarial optimization. To explain this, we conduct a comprehensive mechanism analysis using loss landscape visualization, static and dynamic gradient indicators, and predictive entropy. Our analysis reveals that RL acts as an implicit regularizer, producing models with highly unstable gradient directions and smaller gradient magnitudes. This combination makes each PGD step both unreliable in direction and limited in magnitude, causing gradient-based attacks to fail within practical iteration budgets. We further show that combining RL with adversarial training (RL-adv) provides a dual-layer defense operating at two complementary levels: RL degrades gradient information available to attackers (gradient-level defense), while adversarial training strengthens decision boundaries (boundary-level defense). RL-adv achieves the highest robustness across all major attack types evaluated, including gradient-based (PGD, AutoAttack), transfer-based, and query-based attacks, outperforming SL-adv by a significant margin. These findings identify RL-induced gradient disruption as a complementary robustness mechanism and motivate future research on hybrid SL-RL training schedules that combine SL's efficiency with RL's gradient-regularization properties.

11.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-24

FLAT: Feedforward Latent Triangle Splatting for Geometrically Accurate Scene Generation

Generating explorable 3D scenes from a single image requires strong generative priors and accurate geometric representations suitable for downstream use. Current video diffusion models offer high-quality generation and implicitly encode multi-view geometric structure in latent space. However, existing feedforward latent scene decoders typically output volumetric 3D Gaussians that lack a well-defined surface, limiting their use in simulation or standard graphics pipelines. This motivates decoding surface-aligned primitives that are not only renderable but also closer to explicit geometric assets. We ask whether compressed video diffusion latents can be mapped directly to explicit surface primitives in a single pass. To this end, we introduce FLAT and, for the first time, show that triangle splats can be decoded directly from video diffusion latents. Compared with decoding 3D Gaussians, predicting flat primitives is notoriously more challenging due to high sensitivity to primitive orientations, oftentimes leading to poor gradient flow. FLAT solves with two key ingredients: a ray-centered rotation parameterization for triangle regression and a novel product window function that improves gradient flow during differentiable triangle rendering. On standard benchmarks, FLAT achieves significantly better geometric accuracy while maintaining competitive visual quality compared to state-of-the-art feedforward baselines. We further show that a lightweight test-time refinement step converts the predicted triangle soup into a fully opaque, game-engine-ready representation that supports real-time rendering. By evaluating 3DGS, 2DGS, and triangle splatting variants under an identical training setup, we provide the first systematic analysis of representation tradeoffs in feedforward scene generation. The project page is available at https://flat-splat.github.io

12.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-24

OmniPath: A Multi-Modal Agentic Framework for Auditing Wheelchair Accessibility

arXiv:2606.24129v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: For a wheelchair user, a standard blue line on a map is often a broken promise. While platforms like OpenStreetMap (OSM) successfully capture where a path is, they frequently fail to convey how it physically feels to travel on it. This information barrier is problematic for wheelchair users. To solve this issue, we present OmniPath, a system that moves from passive mapping to proactive environmental auditing. Our framework fuses the network topology of OSM with the submeter precision of high-density aerial LiDAR (USGS 3DEP) to create a high-fidelity 3D model of the pedestrian environment. Rather than simply routing a user, our agent virtually traverses the network, analyzing the surface in 0.5 meter increments. It rigorously quantifies physical friction points specifically running slope, cross slope, and vertical discontinuities against ADA compliance standards, calculating a weighted severity score to categorize hazards from ``Mild'' to ``Critical.'' To ensure real world reliability, we validated the system against 200 physical ground truth field surveys across the National Mall using stratified random sampling. The framework demonstrated strong diagnostic reliability for high-severity hazards, achieving F1-scores of 0.60 for Severe and 0.58 for critical categories. By automating this micro-scale inspection, OmniPath identifies the ``invisible'' barriers that standard maps miss, effectively transforming a static dataset into accessibility data source that anticipates accessibility challenges before the user ever leaves home.

13.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-15

Knowledge Graph Enhanced Memory-Augmented Retrieval for Long Context Modeling

Long-context language modeling requires not only extending context windows but maintaining coherent understanding of entity states and relationships across thousands of tokens – a challenge that semantic similarity alone cannot address. KGERMAR addresses this by constructing dynamic, context-specific knowledge graphs from input text during inference, enabling domain-adaptive retrieval that leverages both semantic similarity and explicit entity relationships. The framework performs real-time entity and relation extraction to build contextual knowledge graphs, then integrates graph-structural embeddings with textual semantics through a multi-component memory architecture. Three memory banks – contextual, semantic, and structural – are maintained with retrieval signals fused via learned weights to capture both surface-level semantics and deeper relational patterns. Evaluated on SlimPajama (84.7K training examples), WikiText-103 (4,358 examples), PG-19 (100 examples), and Proof-pile (46.3K examples), KGERMAR achieves up to 8.5\% lower perplexity and 2–2.5x better memory efficiency than memory-augmented baselines across context lengths from 1K to 32K tokens, with superior in-context learning performance across five NLU tasks. The dynamic knowledge graph construction approach advances memory-augmented language modeling by enabling domain-specific knowledge representation that adapts to input contexts rather than relying on fixed knowledge bases.

14.
PLOS Computational Biology 2026-06-17

Machine learning-driven identification of virulence determinants in <i>Borrelia burgdorferi</i> associated with human dissemination

by Hoa Thanh Nguyen, Catherine A. Brissette Lyme disease, the most common tick-borne infectious disease in the United States, presents with highly variable clinical outcomes, ranging from localized erythema migrans to severe disseminated complications affecting the heart, joints, and nervous system. The bacterial determinants underlying this phenotypic variation remain largely unknown, limiting our ability to predict disease progression and optimize treatment strategies. Here, we applied machine learning (ML) approaches to identify specific amino acid residues within surface-exposed virulence factors that predict human dissemination phenotypes. Utilizing the published whole genome sequences from 299 clinical Borrelia burgdorferi isolates collected from the United States and Slovenia over a 30-year period (1992–2021), we extracted and characterized translated amino acid sequences (variants) of seven known virulence factors (BB_0406, BBK32, DbpA, OspA, OspC, P66, and RevA). Protein variants were classified based on their association with disseminated versus localized infections using clinical metadata. Cramér’s V analysis revealed possible strong associations between dissemination phenotypes and five adhesins: BBK32, DbpA, OspC, P66, and RevA. We developed ML models using five algorithms with multiple feature selection strategies, achieving robust predictive performance for DbpA, OspC, and RevA variants (all performance metrics > 0.7). Feature importance analysis identified 57, 29, and 42 key predictive residues for DbpA, OspC, and RevA, respectively. Notably, B-cell epitope prediction revealed significant enrichment of ML-identified residues within predicted epitope regions for OspC (11 overlapping residues, OR = 3.57, p = 0.006) and RevA (12 overlapping residues, OR = 2.37, p = 0.048), suggesting these residues may influence immune recognition and bacterial persistence. This study establishes the first computational framework linking Borrelia protein sequence variants to clinical dissemination phenotypes, providing molecular insights into Lyme disease pathogenesis that may inform the development of improved diagnostics and therapeutic targets.

15.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-15

Conformal calibration and look-elsewhere effect in anomaly detection for new-physics searches

arXiv:2606.13780v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Machine-learned anomaly detection is reshaping searches for new physics, but it has outrun the statistics used to interpret it. A raw anomaly score has no calibrated meaning, a model that scans many regions inflates the look-elsewhere effect, and the asymptotic significances the field relies on are blind to the background mismodelling that anomaly detectors are especially prone to. We propose a calibration layer, built on conformal prediction, that turns any anomaly score into a defensible significance with distribution-free, finite-sample guarantees. Conformal prediction converts scores into valid local p-values, weighted and Mondrian variants repair the sideband-to-signal-region exchangeability failures that resonant searches suffer, and a Gross-Vitells step carries the result through to a look-elsewhere-aware global significance. The layer does two things at once. It exposes miscalibration that the standard pipeline cannot see, and it corrects it without retraining the detector. On public LHC Olympics data, a classifier develops a substructure-mass correlation that makes sideband-calibrated background p-values anti-conservative. Taken at face value, this manufactures a $\sim 46\sigma$ excess from background sculpting alone, which the label-free weighted correction removes, restoring an honest null. When run as a blind wide-mass bump hunt, the standard asymptotic and unweighted procedures fabricate $\gtrsim10\sigma$ excesses and $\approx5\sigma$ excesses even in signal-free windows, while the conformal layer raises no false alarms and its global false-positive rate is verified on background-only pseudoexperiments. The result is an auditable, detector-agnostic path from an uncalibrated score to a trials-factor-aware significance, ready to be folded into experimental anomaly searches.

18.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-12

Dual-Constrained Diffusion Image Compression for Operational Rate-Distortion-Perception Optimization

The rate-distortion-perception (RDP) trade-off extends classical rate–distortion theory by imposing a distributional constraint on reconstructions, providing a unified framework for neural image compression that jointly governs fidelity and perceptual realism. While prior work achieves near-optimal rate–perception trade-offs, practical frameworks explicitly realizing the full RDP surface remain scarce, primarily due to the difficulty of introducing common randomness at the decoder. We propose DCIC (Dual-Constrained Diffusion Image Compression), which integrates a learned codec with a diffusion-based decoder governed by joint distortion and idempotence constraints. The distortion constraint bounds reconstruction fidelity relative to the base codec output; the idempotence constraint – requiring that re-encoding the restored image recovers the base codec reconstruction – serves as a tractable surrogate for the distributional perception requirement. Together, they steer the reverse denoising process via iterative optimization with consistent noise injection, realizing common randomness without additional rate overhead. At fixed rate, dual attenuation factors $(K_D, K_P)$ jointly navigate the Pareto frontier of the distortion-perception plane, enabling continuously adjustable fidelity-realism trade-offs from a single bitstream. DCIC$_{RD}$ ($K_P{=}0$) and DCIC$_{RP}$ ($K_D{=}0$) arise as boundary curves, with DCIC$_{RDP}$ ($K_D = K_P=1$) realizing the optimal interior operating point. Experiments on CelebA-HQ, CLIC2020, and ImageNet-1K across CNN, Transformer, and hybrid architectures confirm that DCIC$_{RDP}$ achieves superior BD-PSNR over all perceptual codecs, while DCIC$_{RP}$ matches dedicated perception-oriented methods in BD-FID, validating the practical value of full RDP surface navigation.

19.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-12

Navigating Gigapixel Pathology Images with Large Multimodal Models

Recent advances in large multimodal models have allowed for the development of interactive chat models that can converse and reason about pathology whole-slide images (WSIs). However, existing slide-level chat systems are often highly specialized, typically compressing WSIs into fixed slide-level embeddings or relying on multi-component pipelines, which can lose multi-scale detail and limit generalizability beyond the target task. We present GIANT (Gigapixel Image Agent for Navigating Tissue), a simple, training-free approach that lets general-purpose multimodal models navigate WSIs on their own, iteratively selecting multi-magnification crops and aggregating evidence over time. To evaluate generalizability in WSI question answering and to promote reproducibility, we introduce MultiPathQA, a benchmark suite spanning five clinical challenges and 934 questions over 868 unique WSIs. This includes a new set of 128 pathologist-authored multiple-choice questions designed to mirror real diagnostic search and multi-scale reasoning. Using GPT-5, GIANT outperforms models specialized for pathology question answering, achieving state-of-the-art performance on four out of five benchmarks.

20.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-19

From Construction to Injection: Edit-Based Fingerprints for Large Language Models

Reliable model fingerprints are essential for protecting large language models (LLMs) against unauthorized redistribution and commercial misuse. In black-box deployment, verification is hindered by defensive filtering of suspected fingerprint queries, as well as by downstream model modifications that may weaken embedded ownership evidence. These risks require fingerprints to be robust in both construction and injection. For construction, prior paradigms face an imperceptibility trade-off: natural-language fingerprints may be accidentally activated, whereas garbled fingerprints are statistically exposed and easier to filter. For injection, existing methods struggle to preserve persistent trigger–target behaviors under model modification. We propose an end-to-end injected fingerprinting framework to address these challenges. Code-mixing Fingerprints (CF) use lowest-perplexity code-mixing under a high-complexity constraint to mitigate this two-sided imperceptibility trade-off. Multi-Candidate Editing (MCEdit) constructs structurally redundant, margin-separated trigger–target mappings to enable graceful degradation under model modification. Extensive evaluations on imperceptibility, detectability, and harmlessness demonstrate robust ownership verification with negligible impact on utility.

21.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-11

Cross-Modal Benchmarking for Robotic Perception in Natural Environments

Natural environments present a complex challenge to robotics perception systems. Current models, particularly vision foundation models, are largely trained on structured, urban environments leading to weaknesses in their perception for field robotics tasks. We showcase the limitations of current models using our recently released WildCross benchmark, a new cross-modal benchmark for place recognition and metric depth estimation in large-scale natural environments. WildCross comprises over 476K sequential RGB frames with semi-dense depth and surface normal annotations, each aligned with accurate 6DoF pose and synchronized dense lidar submaps. In this work, we provide an expanded analysis of the benchmark results from the recent WildCross benchmark, with particular emphasis on expanded metric depth estimation experiments. Access to the code repository and dataset for this work can be found at https://csiro-robotics.github.io/WildCross.

22.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19

HGCN(O): A Self-Tuning GCN HyperModel Toolkit for Outcome Prediction in Event-Sequence Data

arXiv:2507.22524v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We propose HGCN(O), a self-tuning toolkit using Graph Convolutional Network (GCN) models for event sequence prediction. Featuring four GCN architectures (O-GCN, T-GCN, TP-GCN, TE-GCN) across the GCNConv and GraphConv layers, our toolkit integrates multiple graph representations of event sequences with different choices of node- and graph-level attributes and in temporal dependencies via edge weights, optimising prediction accuracy and stability for balanced and unbalanced datasets. Extensive experiments show that GCNConv models excel on unbalanced data, while all models perform consistently on balanced data. Experiments also confirm the superior performance of HGCN(O) over traditional approaches. Applications include Predictive Business Process Monitoring (PBPM), which predicts future events or states of a business process based on event logs.

23.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Filtered Conformal Ellipsoids for Graph-Native Time Series

arXiv:2606.17014v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Joint prediction sets for multivariate time series should control a single event while adapting to cross-coordinate dependence. We study filtered conformal ellipsoids: a frozen state-space filter emits a one-step predictive mean and covariance, and split-conformal calibration is applied to the resulting Mahalanobis scores. The filter is used to choose the ellipsoid shape; conformal calibration chooses the scalar radius, so the construction benefits from a learned predictive covariance without relying on Gaussian tail probabilities for coverage. The main difficulty is that filtered scores are dependent and learned recurrent filters need not contract in their raw hidden state; we therefore analyse contraction in an observable predictive-law quotient that identifies hidden states producing the same future sequence of emitted Gaussian laws. Under a stable Bayes Gaussian-projection filter, covariance bounds, and a finite-horizon observability Fisher condition, small excess Gaussian negative log-likelihood implies contraction of the learned emitted laws. Combined with a threshold-autocovariance envelope this yields a Chebyshev-type approximate coverage bound for filtered split-conformal prediction under dependence; a sharper Bernstein-type bound requires an additional geometric-mixing concentration assumption. Under Gaussian oracle realisability we also obtain a near-oracle log-volume comparison within the class of conditionally valid Gaussian ellipsoid rules. We instantiate the framework with a GCN-GRU filter with diagonal-plus-low-rank covariance. On moderate-size graph-native traffic benchmarks (METRLA-$20$ and PEMSBAY-$50$), the learned filter gives sharper at-target ellipsoids than static-covariance and non-filter baselines; at full-graph scale and on non-graph-native datasets, factor and copula baselines can be stronger.

24.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

DDTNet: Degradation Disentanglement and Transfer Network for Test-Time All-in-One De-weathering Adaptation

All-in-one adverse weather image restoration aims to remove multiple degradations, such as rain, haze, and snow, using a single unified model. Despite their broad applicability, existing methods typically compromise performance, delivering balanced but suboptimal results for individual degradation types. This issue becomes more pronounced when a domain gap exists between training and testing data. Motivated by the observation that modeling degradation patterns is more feasible than recovering clean content, we propose the Degradation Disentanglement and Transfer Network (DDTNet), which focuses specifically on degradation transfer. By disentangling degradation patterns from target-domain degraded images and transferring them to source domain clean images, DDTNet generates domain-adaptive paired training data. These pairs are then used to fine-tune restoration models, significantly enhancing their adaptability across diverse weather conditions and domains. The core of DDTNet is the Degradation Disentanglement Module (DDM), which comprises Degradation Coupled Attention (DCA) to capture both general and weather-specific features, thereby enabling effective disentanglement and transfer of degradation patterns. Experimental results demonstrate that DDTNet significantly and consistently improves existing all-in-one models across real-world deraining, desnowing, and dehazing datasets.

25.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-24

Computing Evolutionarily Stable Strategies in Imperfect-Information Games

Authors:

arXiv:2512.10279v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We present an algorithm for computing evolutionarily stable strategies (ESSs) in symmetric perfect-recall extensive-form games of imperfect information. Our main algorithm is for two-player games, and we describe how it can be extended to multiplayer games. The algorithm is sound and computes all ESSs in nondegenerate games and a subset of them in degenerate games which contain an infinite continuum of symmetric Nash equilibria. The algorithm is anytime and can be stopped early to find one or more ESSs. We experiment on an imperfect-information cancer signaling game as well as random games to demonstrate scalability.