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01.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

Equivariant Flow Matching for Symmetry-Breaking Bifurcation Problems

arXiv:2509.03340v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Bifurcation phenomena in nonlinear dynamical systems often lead to multiple coexisting stable solutions, particularly in the presence of symmetry breaking. Deterministic machine learning models are unable to capture this multiplicity, averaging over solutions and failing to represent lower-symmetry outcomes. In this work, we formalize the use of generative AI, specifically flow matching, as a principled way to model the full probability distribution over bifurcation outcomes. Our approach builds on existing techniques by combining flow matching with equivariant architectures and an optimal-transport-based coupling mechanism. We generalize equivariant flow matching to a symmetric coupling strategy that aligns predicted and target outputs under group actions, allowing accurate learning in equivariant settings. We validate our approach on a range of systems, from simple conceptual systems to physical problems such as buckling beams and the Allen–Cahn equation. The results demonstrate that the approach accurately captures multimodal distributions and symmetry-breaking bifurcations. Moreover, our results demonstrate that flow matching significantly outperforms non-probabilistic and variational methods. This offers a principled and scalable solution for modeling multistability in high-dimensional systems.

02.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-15

Fourier analysis of quantum neural network with non-linear data embedding

arXiv:2606.14206v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Fourier analysis has become a crucial tool for understanding the expressivity of Variational Quantum Circuit (VQC) models, as well as an important indicator of barren plateaus (BP). While existing literature has only studied angle-embedded VQCs in a noiseless environment, here we develop the Fourier analysis of VQCs with non-linear data embedding, with particular focus on amplitude embedding, which provides a naturally compact encoding scheme. We first investigate a subtle difference in the domain of input features within amplitude embedding that leads to a distinct expressivity of the zero-frequency Fourier coefficient. By assuming that the ensemble of unitaries generated from the parameter space forms at least a 2-design with respect to the unitary group, we derive, via Weingarten calculus, that the mean of the Fourier coefficients is concentrated at zero, and the variance scales at an exponentially decaying order with respect to the multi-dimensional frequency magnitude. When a noise channel with unitary Kraus operators and probabilities $\{p_k\}$ is taken into account, the variance is further suppressed by a factor $\left(\sum_k p_k^2\right)^{Q}

03.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-12

Allocating Human Oversight in AI-Enabled Analytics

arXiv:2604.12497v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Organizations increasingly deploy AI as a low-cost prediction layer in customer-facing decision processes, including demand sensing, service-quality monitoring, product testing, and market research, but AI-generated signals are unevenly reliable across tasks, products, and customer segments. Firms therefore still need scarce human validation (labels, audits, survey responses, or follow-up measurements) to anchor AI outputs to ground truth. Because human ground truth is itself noisy, varying across labelers and even across repeated judgments, the firm must collect and average several human labels per task, which makes human validation costly. We study how to allocate a limited human-validation budget across many AI-assisted tasks when reliability is heterogeneous and unknown before deployment. We cast this within tuned prediction-powered inference. Each human label both sharpens the AI-assisted estimate and reveals the task's rectification difficulty, the variance that remains after the AI prediction is optimally used as a control variate. If difficulties were known, the optimal allocation would follow a Neyman square-root rule; because they are unknown, we propose a policy based on upper confidence bounds that learns them online and steers validation toward tasks where AI is least reliable. We prove that the policy's terminal efficiency loss relative to the oracle allocation vanishes as the budget grows. In synthetic experiments and a real digital-twin survey with 68 tasks and over 2000 respondents, it closes most of the gap to the oracle when reliability is heterogeneous, outperforming uniform and epsilon-greedy allocation; on the survey data it also outperforms explore-then-commit pilot designs and cuts uniform's 10–12% gap to 2–6%. The value of AI depends not only on model accuracy but also on the operational policy that targets human oversight where AI errors matter most.

04.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-17

MedicalAgentsBench for Complex Medical Reasoning: Comparing Internalized Reasoning Models versus Externalized Agent-based Frameworks

Complex medical reasoning requires integrating heterogeneous clinical evidence across multiple inference steps. Large language models (LLMs) now approach this through two routes: internalized reasoning and externalized agent scaffolding (frameworks that decompose problems collaboratively amongst multiple LLMs). To determine whether these routes are exclusive or complementary, we introduce MedicalAgentsBench, a filtered benchmark of 862 complex clinical questions drawn from the union of eight medical datasets via difficulty-aware curation and contamination screening. Evaluating three internalized reasoning models (DeepSeek-R1, o1-mini, and o3-mini), seven base models, and nine externalized agent-based methods, we find that internalized and externalized approaches each independently improve performance, and that their benefits compound: the highest accuracy is achieved by layering agent workflows onto an internalized reasoning model (i.e., o3-mini + MDAgents with 35.1%). Pareto analysis shows this combination dominates the cost-performance frontier; moreover, lightweight optimization on inexpensive models offers an entry point for resource-constrained settings. Our benchmark is at https://github.com/gersteinlab/MedicalAgentsBench.

05.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-17

The Standard Model, The Exceptional Jordan Algebra, and Triality

Authors:

arXiv:2006.16265v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Jordan, Wigner and von Neumann classified the possible algebras of quantum mechanical observables, and found they fell into 4 "ordinary" families, plus one remarkable outlier: the exceptional Jordan algebra. We point out an intriguing relationship between the complexification of this algebra and the standard model of particle physics, its minimal left-right-symmetric $SU(3)\times SU(2)_{L}\times SU(2)_{R}\times U(1)$ extension, and $Spin(10)$ unification. This suggests a geometric interpretation, where a single generation of standard model fermions is described by the tangent space $(\mathbb{C}\otimes\mathbb{O})^{2}$ of the complex octonionic projective plane, and the existence of three generations is related to $SO(8)$ triality.

06.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-11

Re-evaluating Confidence Remasking in Masked Diffusion Language Models

arXiv:2606.12232v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Masked diffusion language models (dLLMs) have recently emerged as a competitive alternative to autoregressive language models, with the promise of faster inference via parallel token generation. A notable limitation of the masked formulation, however, is that once a token has been unmasked it can no longer be revised, leaving dLLMs vulnerable to early sampling mistakes. To address this, a growing body of work has sought to extend masked dLLMs with self-correcting (remasking) capabilities. One appealing subset of these methods does so in a training-free, post-hoc manner based on token confidences, with encouraging early reported results. In this work, we revisit the empirical evaluation of a representative post-hoc remasking method, WINO [Hong et al., 2026], and find that under standard decoding settings (shorter block lengths) it brings little-to-no benefit over confidence-based unmasking alone [Wu et al., 2025]. Extending the evaluation to non-greedy decoding, we find that while confidence-based remasking can mitigate errors introduced by increased stochasticity to some extent, it also exacerbates the diversity collapse previously reported for confidence-based unmasking. Overall, our results show that the benefits of post-hoc confidence-based remasking are highly setting-dependent, underscoring the need for a more comprehensive evaluation framework.

07.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

Improved Knowledge Distillation for Land-Use Image Classification

In the present article, an improved Knowledge Distillation (KD) framework has been proposed for efficient compression of deep convolutional neural networks for land-use image classification task. Motivated by the need to achieve competitive classification accuracy while reducing computational complexity, a teacher-student learning paradigm is adopted in which a VGG16 network transfers knowledge to a lightweight MobileNetV2 model. The proposed framework integrates hard supervision from ground truth labels with a soft supervision strategy that combines Kullback-Leibler divergence and Cosine Similarity losses. Experiments conducted on three land-use datasets show that the proposed KD-based method yields improved performance, and achieves an accuracy of 99.04%, outperforming both baseline student training and single-loss distillation approaches, while retaining substantial model compression.

08.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-12

Localizing Anchoring Pathways in Language Models

Irrelevant numbers in a prompt can shift language model judgments, producing anchoring effects in numerical reasoning. We study where this anchor-sensitive signal is carried inside language models using a controlled multiple-choice setup with shared answer options. We define a logit-difference metric comparing the correct answer option with the answer option corresponding to the anchor, and validate that it tracks behavioral anchoring. Using attribution-based circuit localization on 7B–8B Qwen and Llama base and instruction-tuned models, we find that edge-level methods recover this signal more faithfully than node-level methods. Low- and high-anchor circuits transfer strongly within a model, suggesting shared pathway structure across anchor direction. However, sparse transfer across base and instruction-tuned variants is less reliable, indicating that post-training changes which pathways matter most. Overall, our results provide a mechanistic account of how anchoring-related decision signals are carried inside language models.

09.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-11

Delta-Epsilon-Common Knowledge and Quantitative Agreement Theorems

arXiv:2606.11902v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Aumann defined common knowledge mathematically and established his now famous Agreement Theorem. We present a novel approach to quantifying how close individuals are to commonly knowing events, $(\delta,\epsilon)$-common knowledge, which is defined for any (and not just countable) probability spaces, and provide quantitative versions of the key results in this field. Specifically, we do this for Aumann's Agreement Theorem and Nielsen's extension thereof to random variables, as well as for the setting in which posteriors are communicated back and forth between individuals. Our results apply in particular to noisy communication settings.

10.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

Vision-Language Models as Zero-Annotation Oracles in Histopathology

Foreground segmentation is the critical first step of every computational pathology pipeline, yet existing methods rely on hand-tuned heuristics or supervised models that overfit to narrow stain and scanner distributions, failing silently on specialised stains such as Jones silver or Elastica van Gieson. We propose a coarse-to-fine approach that recasts foreground segmentation as a visual perception task and leverages general-purpose vision-language models (VLMs) as zero-annotation oracles. Our key insight is that tissue-versus-background discrimination is a natural-image recognition problem, not a histopathological one, so VLMs trained on internet-scale corpora generalise where domain-specific models cannot. We introduce Leica-75, a benchmark of 75 renal transplant whole-slide images spanning three stain families. On Leica-75, our method achieves the highest segmentation quality on out-of-distribution stains (Dice 0.858 +/- 0.027 on Jones, 0.853 +/- 0.041 on EVG) with 7x lower cross-stain variance than the best supervised baseline, while remaining competitive on in-distribution H&E. Few-shot prompting with automatically curated exemplars (Auto-context) rescues hard cases on Stress-32 (n=32), a curated stress-test subset (Dice 0.470 to 0.819 for the 2B model). VLM-based annotation review matches human expert consensus (kappa=0.989 for blur detection; mean precision/recall grading accuracy 0.708 vs. human 0.646 for segmentation mask review). The resulting pseudo-labels are used to distil lightweight student models that are as performant as the teacher model while running for a fraction of the cost. Our framework provides a principled, scalable solution to a persistent infrastructure bottleneck in digital pathology.

11.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-19

Operational Tube-Sector Theory of Quantum State Distinguishability Under Generalized Symmetries

Authors:

arXiv:2606.19678v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: A variational principle for quantum-state distinguishability is established in many-body systems with generalized symmetries, including noninvertible cases described by fusion categories. Standard fidelity and symmetry-resolved diagnostics emerge as coarse-grained limits of a more refined operational structure. When symmetry actions terminate at entanglement cuts, distinguishability is governed by boundary tube algebras within a symmetry-constrained measurement resource theory. The physically admissible instruments are characterized by complete positivity, entanglement-cut locality, boundary-module covariance, and sequential stability. The resulting optimal measurement structure is uniquely fixed by the center of the boundary tube algebra, $\mathcal{A}_{\mathrm{phys}} = Z\!\left(\mathrm{Tube}_{\mathcal{C}}(\mathcal{M}_A)\right)$, whose primitive idempotents define tube-sector probabilities that refine fidelity-based and symmetry-resolved descriptions. The associated tube positive-operator-valued measures (POVM) are extremal and yield optimal one-shot hypothesis-testing distinguishability under symmetry constraints. The construction is universal across fusion categories and independent of microscopic realization.

12.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

DynFS-MoE: Dynamic Functional-Structural Mixture-of-Experts for Post-Traumatic Epilepsy Diagnosis

Post-traumatic epilepsy (PTE) is a severe complication of traumatic brain injury (TBI), yet early identification remains challenging due to the complex structural and functional alterations it induces in the brain. To address this, we propose a dynamic multimodal Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) framework that integrates functional and structural MRI through time-aware functional-structural encoding and class-conditioned expert routing. Within this framework, modality-specific and cross-modal experts learn complementary representations, while a Modality-Class MoE (MCoE) module dynamically dispatches expert weights according to each classification objective. Experimental results across three binary classification tasks demonstrate that the framework consistently outperforms static fusion baselines, and high-interpretability analyses further reveal meaningful region-of-interest (ROI) interactions. This dynamic multimodal expert framework effectively captures class-dependent brain interaction patterns and provides an interpretable approach for PTE diagnosis and risk stratification.

13.
Nature (Science) 2026-06-17

Spatial distribution of the proteome in the human body and in cancers

Authors:

A detailed, spatially resolved quantitative map of the human proteome is essential for a deeper understanding of human biology and disease1–4. Here we present a comprehensive human proteomic landscape, generated by profiling more than 13,000 proteins across 2,856 samples using data-independent acquisition mass spectrometry. The dataset spans 58 major tissue types, 251 specific tissue subtypes and 25 distinct carcinomas. This resource enables the depiction of spatially resolved proteome trajectories across tissue types and physiological states, including fetal, tumour, adjacent non-tumour and healthy adult tissue, thereby providing insight into both developmental processes and oncogenic progression. Furthermore, quantitative proteomics comparisons across diverse tissue types and states facilitate the indication of organ-specific toxicity, the identification of repurposable anticancer drug candidates and the prioritization of therapeutic targets for cancers. This study establishes a quantitative resource for navigating the proteome in the human body and in common cancers. A spatially resolved map of the human proteome across a variety of healthy tissues and cancers provides wide-ranging insights in developmental biology and oncology, and could aid the identification of therapeutic targets and development of treatments for cancer.

14.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-15

SMART: Scalable Mesh-free Aerodynamic Simulations from Raw Geometries using a Transformer-based Surrogate Model

Machine learning-based surrogate models have emerged as more efficient alternatives to numerical solvers for physical simulations over complex geometries, such as car bodies. Many existing models incorporate the simulation mesh as an additional input, thereby reducing prediction errors. However, generating a simulation mesh for new geometries is computationally costly. In contrast, mesh-free methods, which do not rely on the simulation mesh, typically incur higher errors. Motivated by these considerations, we introduce SMART, a neural surrogate model that predicts physical quantities at arbitrary query locations using only a point-cloud representation of the geometry, without requiring access to the simulation mesh. The geometry and simulation parameters are encoded into a shared latent space that captures both structural and parametric characteristics of the physical field. A physics decoder then attends to the encoder's intermediate latent representations to map spatial queries to physical quantities. Through this cross-layer interaction, the model jointly updates latent geometric features and the evolving physical field. Extensive experiments show that SMART is competitive with and often outperforms existing methods that rely on the simulation mesh as input, demonstrating its capabilities for industry-level simulations.

15.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Near-Optimal Regret for Distributed Adversarial Bandits: A Black-Box Approach

arXiv:2602.06404v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We study distributed adversarial bandits, where $N$ agents cooperate to minimize the global average loss while observing only their own local losses. We show that the minimax regret for this problem is $\tilde{\Theta}(\sqrt{(\rho^{-1/2}+K/N)T})$, where $T$ is the horizon, $K$ is the number of actions, and $\rho$ is the spectral gap of the communication matrix. Our algorithm, based on a novel black-box reduction to bandits with delayed feedback, requires agents to communicate only through gossip. It achieves an upper bound that significantly improves over the previous best bound $\tilde{O}(\rho^{-1/3}(KT)^{2/3})$ of Yi and Vojnovic (2023). We complement this result with a matching lower bound, showing that the problem's difficulty decomposes into a communication cost $\rho^{-1/4}\sqrt{T}$ and a bandit cost $\sqrt{KT/N}$. We further demonstrate the versatility of our approach by deriving first-order and best-of-both-worlds bounds in the distributed adversarial setting. Finally, we extend our framework to distributed linear bandits in $R^d$, obtaining a regret bound of $\tilde{O}(\sqrt{(\rho^{-1/2}+1/N)dT})$, achieved with only $O(d)$ communication cost per agent and per round via a volumetric spanner.

16.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-17

BioArtlas: Computational Clustering of Multi-Dimensional Complexity in Bioart

Authors:

arXiv:2511.19162v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Bioart brings living material into artistic practice, where a single work can be at once an aesthetic object, a scientific instrument, and an ethical provocation. Traditional categories sort such works along one axis at a time, which flattens the very hybridity that defines the field and leaves curators no way to compare works across many dimensions together. I introduce BioArtlas, a computational atlas that represents each bioartwork along many curated dimensions at once and organizes the field by conceptual similarity rather than by medium or chronology. My method embeds the keywords of all 81 works on each of thirteen interpretive axes, groups related concepts into a shared codebook that tames inconsistent terminology, and then searches systematically for a clustering that is both statistically clean and interpretable. Among the methods that place every work on the map, agglomerative clustering separates the field far more cleanly than the usual k-means baseline (silhouette 0.664 versus 0.483), whereas density-based methods reach higher scores only by discarding most of the corpus as noise. By separating rigorous analysis from public storytelling, BioArtlas turns the tangled complexity of bioart into a navigable landscape, openly available as an interactive interface (https://www.bioartlas.com) and dataset (https://github.com/joonhyungbae/BioArtlas).

17.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-15

A Stationarity-and-Coupling Criterion for Training-Free Time-Lagged Spectral Embeddings of Multivariate Time Series

arXiv:2606.13823v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We study training-free fixed-length descriptors for multivariate time series and ask not merely whether such a descriptor performs well, but when it can be expected to work at all. Our object of study is $D(\tau)$, built from a time-lagged correlation matrix truncated at the Marchenko-Pastur edge so that only signal-bearing eigenvalues survive and classified by cosine similarity to class centroids with zero learned parameters. The central contribution is not the descriptor but a falsifiable applicability criterion for it. Working from a stationary Gaussian VAR(1) model, we argue that $D(\tau)$ separates two classes when the signals are approximately stationary and the class information lives in their cross-channel temporal coupling rather than in marginal per-channel power. We derive, semi-formally, three consequences: a distinguishability condition, why the static ($\tau=0$) covariance collapses to chance, and why a stationary but power-discriminated paradigm defeats the descriptor. The criterion is operational: a two-part pre-flight test – an augmented Dickey-Fuller stationarity check and a power-baseline saturation check – predicts applicability before any training. We validate both halves on a mixed assortment. On four paradigms that satisfy the criterion (Sleep-EDF, BCI-IV-2a, MIT-BIH, ESC-50) the descriptor is competitive with strong baselines at a fraction of their cost, reaching $88.5\pm4.5\%$ under 20-subject leave-one-subject-out on Sleep-EDF on a single CPU thread. On three that violate it – non-stationary ERPs, and financial-volatility and wearable-stress regimes that are power-discriminated – it fails exactly as the pre-flight predicts, and these negatives are the more informative half. We are explicit that $D(\tau)$ is not the most accurate representation; its value is a compact, training-free embedding whose domain of validity is known in advance.

18.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-17

OPD-Evolver: Cultivating Holistic Agent Evolver via On-Policy Distillation

Memory has become a standard substrate for self-evolving agents, yet retaining experience is not the same as learning how to evolve through it. Existing memory agents can store trajectories, retrieve reflections, or accumulate skills, but often lack the holistic competence to select useful experience, act on it, write reusable knowledge, and maintain a growing repository. We introduce OPD-Evolver, a slow-fast co-evolution framework that cultivates such an agent evolver through on-policy self-distillation. In the fast loop, OPD-Evolver interacts with a four-level memory hierarchy to read, use, write, and maintain experience for rapid test-time evolution. In the slow loop, outcome-calibrated memory attribution and privileged hindsight distill these four abilities into the deployable policy. Across multi-domain benchmarks, OPD-Evolver surpasses memory systems such as ReasoningBank by up to 11.5%, and training-based methods such as Skill0 by ~5.8%. Further analysis shows that OPD-Evolver internalizes high-value experience and memory management, enabling OPD-Evolver-9B to challenge giant counterparts such as Qwen3.5-397B-A17B and Step-3.5-Flash, pointing beyond memory-augmented agents toward genuinely qualified agent evolvers.

19.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-11

Stochastic Reaction Networks Within Interacting Compartments with Content-Dependent Fragmentation

arXiv:2511.10223v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Stochastic reaction networks with mass-action kinetics provide a useful framework for understanding processes – biochemical and otherwise – in homogeneous environments. However, cellular reactions are often compartmentalized, either at the cell level or within cells, and hence non-homogeneous. We investigate a model of compartmentalization in which the rate of fragmentation of a compartment depends on the abundance of some designated species inside that compartment. The particular model of study is part of a general framework for compartmentalized chemistry with dynamic compartments that was proposed in (Duso and Zechner, PNAS, 2020). This paper builds on (Anderson and Howells, Bull. Math. Biol., 2023) where the special case where the compartment dynamics do not depend on their contents was studied mathematically. In particular, we demonstrate that the explosivity characterization from (Anderson and Howells, Bull. Math. Biol., 2023) fails in this setting and provide new sufficient conditions for non-explosivity and positive recurrence, under the assumption that the underlying CRN admits a linear Lyapunov function. These results extend the theoretical foundation for modeling content-mediated compartment dynamics, with implications for systems such as cell division and intracellular transport.

20.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

Evoflux: Inference-Time Evolution of Executable Tool Workflows for Compact Agents

arXiv:2606.12674v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Compact language models (LMs) reduce cost, latency, and deployment risk for tool agents. Yet MCP-style tool use requires more than isolated function calling: an agent must discover tools from live catalogs, satisfy schemas, preserve dependencies across intermediate outputs, and ground final responses in executed evidence. Small planners often generate plausible workflow graphs that fail under tool resolution, parameter validation, dependency tracking, or execution. We argue that this failure mode is poorly handled by small-corpus distillation. A few hundred teacher traces can teach workflow format, but rarely cover the recovery behavior needed to repair failed plans over changing tool catalogs. We introduce Evoflux, an inference-time evolutionary search method that treats compact tool use as the repair of executable tool workflows. It evolves typed workflow graphs through structured edits, execution feedback, adaptive intensity, meta-guided redesign, and diversity pruning. On held-out MCP-Bench tasks spanning live MCP servers and 250 tools, Evoflux raises execution feasibility from roughly 3% to 17-24% across small planners. In contrast, SFT and SFT+DPO on the same search-mined data match, underperform, or collapse below zero-shot performance; ReAct reaches higher peaks, but with higher variance and token cost. These results show that execution-grounded search is more reliable under scarce teacher-trace budgets.

21.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-11

From 2D Grids to 1D Tokens: Reforming Shared Representations for Multimodal Image Fusion

Multimodal image fusion aims to integrate complementary information from different modalities into a fused image that preserves rich local details while maintaining globally consistent appearance. Existing approaches build shared representations on 2D feature grids, which excel at modeling local structures but offer limited leverage over image-level global appearance factors. To balance these objectives, we introduce a compact 1D token interface based on a frozen pretrained image tokenizer for modeling non-local appearance/base factors. Rather than using the tokenizer as a reconstruction backbone, our design uses the 1D token space as a global carrier while retaining the 2D spatial pathway for local structure restoration. Specifically, we introduce Selective Token Editing (STE), which sparsely updates/replaces a small set of critical tokens, providing a lightweight mechanism to steer global appearance coherence while keeping the fusion backbone unchanged and avoiding extra losses. Experiments on four commonly used benchmarks show that our method achieves the best overall performance, with consistent, multi-metric improvements in both global coherence and local fidelity. Project page: https://zju-xyc.github.io/1D-Fusion-Project-Page/

22.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-18

Not Just How Much, But Where: Decomposing Epistemic Uncertainty into Per-Class Contributions

arXiv:2602.21160v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: In safety-critical classification, the cost of failure is often asymmetric, yet Bayesian deep learning summarises epistemic uncertainty with a single scalar, mutual information (MI), that cannot distinguish whether a model's ignorance involves a benign or safety-critical class. We decompose MI into a per-class vector $C_k(x)=\sigma_k^{2}/(2\mu_k)$, with $\mu_k{=}\mathbb{E}[p_k]$ and $\sigma_k^2{=}\mathrm{Var}[p_k]$ across posterior samples. The decomposition follows from a second-order Taylor expansion of the entropy; the $1/\mu_k$ weighting corrects boundary suppression and makes $C_k$ comparable across rare and common classes. By construction $\sum_k C_k \approx \mathrm{MI}$, and a companion skewness diagnostic flags inputs where the approximation degrades. After characterising the axiomatic properties of $C_k$, we validate it on three tasks: (i) selective prediction for diabetic retinopathy, where critical-class $C_k$ reduces selective risk by 34.7\% over MI and 56.2\% over variance baselines; (ii) out-of-distribution detection on clinical and image benchmarks, where $\sum_k C_k$ achieves the highest AUROC and the per-class view exposes asymmetric shifts invisible to MI; and (iii) a controlled label-noise study in which $\sum_k C_k$ shows less sensitivity to injected aleatoric noise than MI under end-to-end Bayesian training, while both metrics degrade under transfer learning. Across all tasks, the quality of the posterior approximation shapes uncertainty at least as strongly as the choice of metric, suggesting that how uncertainty is propagated through the network matters as much as how it is measured.

24.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

Towards Verifiable Agentic Data Science: Solving Irregular TSQA Via Tool-Grounded Reasoning

arXiv:2606.15107v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Time series data in real-world deployments is overwhelmingly irregular. Observations are asynchronous, missing values are informative rather than random, and sampling frequencies vary across sensors and operational windows. However, existing Time Series Question Answering (TSQA) benchmarks mostly assume regularly sampled inputs, leaving a fundamental gap in understanding how large language models (LLMs) and AI agents perform under irregular conditions. To bridge this gap, we introduce IRTS-ToolBench, a benchmark of 1,700 questions spanning 10 task types across 13 domains. IRTS-ToolBench is designed to be used independently by any researcher working on LLM-based irregular time series analysis, providing standardized inputs and a reproducible evaluation protocol. Code can be found in https://github.com/SanhornC/IRTS-ToolBench.

25.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-12

LoHoSearch: Benchmarking Long-Horizon Search Agents Beyond the Human Difficulty Ceiling

Search agent benchmarks exemplified by BrowseComp have rapidly saturated over the past year, with the strongest models surpassing 90% accuracy. Since these benchmarks are predominantly human-authored, annotators lack a global perspective on entity statistics and cannot systematically maximize search space size and structural complexity. This creates a difficulty ceiling that is hard to break. To address this, we introduce LoHoSearch (Long-Horizon Search Agents), a challenging benchmark comprising 544 human-verified questions across 11 domains. LoHoSearch is constructed via an automated pipeline built upon a knowledge graph covering over 7 million Wikipedia entities, which selects relations with large search spaces and assembles them into structurally complex questions with KG-verified unique answers. Our evaluation demonstrates that even the strongest model achieves only 34.74% accuracy, and existing context management strategies (best +6.8%) yield far smaller gains than on prior benchmarks. LoHoSearch provides a more demanding standard for evaluating long-horizon reasoning and context management in search agents.