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Drivers, Receivers, and Dynamic Linkages: The Directed Structure of SDG Interdependence, 2000–2024

arXiv:2601.20875v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Governments with limited fiscal and administrative capacity need to know which Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) propagate progress through the goal system and how quickly. We map the directed interdependence structure of all seventeen goals using a balanced panel of 114 countries observed annually from 2000 to 2024. The goal series are persistent, trending, and cross-sectionally dependent, so we apply two estimators matched to this regime: a Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel Granger non-causality test, run on first-differenced series, to recover the directed interaction network, and panel local projections with Driscoll-Kraay standard errors to measure the dynamic magnitude of 31 theory-derived indicator linkages. Of 272 directed goal pairs, 84 linkages survive false-discovery control (40 synergies, 44 trade-offs; network density 0.31). Synergies and trade-offs occur at comparable strength, so no single goal behaves as a universal accelerator, and the goal-level hierarchy itself is fragile. Driver-receiver rankings correlate weakly across lag orders and centrality metrics, and under a country bootstrap only two roles are distinguishable from zero: peace and strong institutions as the clearest net receiver, and poverty reduction as the most probable effect-size-weighted driver. The supported linkages are dynamic, accruing over four to five years: sanitation and poverty improvements are the strongest predictors of lower child mortality, and the education-child-health association is corroborated in independent World Development Indicators data across 183 countries. These results caution against rankings-based accelerator policy and support adaptive portfolios built on supported, time-lagged linkages monitored through constituent indicators.

One Step Closer to Ground Truth: A Multi-Scale Residual-Aware Representation Learning Pipeline for Predicting Time Series Data

arXiv:2606.10678v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Transformer-based models have emerged as leading paradigms in time-series forecasting in recent years, employing self-attention mechanisms to capture long-range dependencies. Despite their success, these single-stage forecasting architectures exhibit persistent systematic residual biases arising from structural discrepancies, unmodeled stochastic components, or inadequate multi-scale temporal representations. This limitation persists when residuals are treated as irreducible noise, precluding adaptive correction of structured error patterns. To address this limitation, we introduce a two-stage, model-agnostic framework that explicitly decouples forecasting and residual learning into distinct stages of representation learning. A base transformer first generates the initial predictions. Subsequently, a dedicated meta-corrector dynamically models structured error patterns across multivariate channels, preserves cross-variable dependencies, and iteratively refines the residual bias of the base transformer. By formalizing this pipeline as a hypothesis space expansion, our framework addresses approximation limitations inherent in single-stage architectures, removes reliance on restrictive assumptions, and enables end-to-end learning of complex error dynamics. Evaluated on eight popular benchmark datasets using established protocols, our approach achieves state-of-the-art performance, with significant improvements in standard metrics (MSE, MAE). The results demonstrate the framework's ability to mitigate systematic biases and enhance robustness to complex temporal dynamics, advancing the practical applicability of transformer-based forecasting models.