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Grounded Inference: Principles for Deterministically Encapsulated Generative Models

arXiv:2606.19753v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The incorporation of generative models into traditional computational systems presents both enormous opportunity and tremendous peril. Although many early adopters have realized these perils at great expense, the field still requires foundational frameworks to de-risk incorporation of AI into traditional systems. This manuscript establishes this foundation through the definition of four specific primitives of AI blended architecture, designed to enable deterministic encapsulation of probabilistic models. It further establishes two overarching anti-patterns broadly represented across industry to serve as warnings for engineers in this field. This framework was designed to enable successful integration of AI into traditional systems while providing a foundation upon which generative model providers could build the next generation of generative model interfaces.

Towards Provably Fair Machine Learning: Bayesian Approaches For Consistent and Transparent Predictions

arXiv:2606.12615v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: ML classifiers deployed in high-stakes domains produce predictions whose quality varies systematically across subgroups. For granular subgroups defined by intersections of multiple features, predictions are often inconsistent with the observed data: the model's outputs contradict the evidence available for that subgroup. This problem is exacerbated by regularisation, which improves aggregate performance by collapsing small subgroups into larger groups, disproportionately affecting demographic minorities. We define two requirements for consistent prediction: determinism (identical individuals receive identical predictions) and statistical consistency (we cannot reject, at significance level alpha, the hypothesis that the predictions for a subgroup were drawn from the Bayesian optimal target distribution inferred for that subgroup). From these requirements we derive the Fair Bayesian classifier, which enforces both across every group and subgroup simultaneously and abstains whenever no consistent deterministic prediction is possible. On three benchmark datasets (Adult, COMPAS, and Bank Marketing), standard classifiers produce statistically inconsistent predictions for a substantial proportion of subgroups. Our classifier achieves zero consistency error by construction while exceeding baseline accuracy and multicalibration on every dataset tested. Statistical consistency provides a principled foundation for prediction quality with direct implications for algorithmic fairness. Minority demographics are disproportionately concentrated in small subgroups, precisely where frequentist inference is least reliable; addressing this inference problem is therefore a necessary step toward fair ML. By enforcing Bayesian consistency at the finest resolution the data supports, the our classifier demonstrates that exhaustive subgroup fairness with principled abstention is achievable in practice.

Differential COVID-19 Outcomes Across Lysosomal Disorders

Background Lysosomal disorders (LDs) are a heterogeneous group of rare inherited disorders characterized by multi-system involvement and high comorbidity burden, which raises concerns about severe COVID-19 outcomes. Conversely, because SARS-CoV-2 relies on endolysosomal pathways for cellular entry and replication, certain LDs may exert a protective effect against viral pathogenesis. Prior clinical evidence investigating LDs and severe SARS-CoV-2 infection has been limited by small sample sizes and inconsistent findings. Therefore, to resolve these conflicting biological hypotheses and estimate population-level outcomes, we conducted a large-scale retrospective cohort study using nationwide U.S. harmonized electronic health record data from the National Clinical Cohort Collaborative (N3C). This design utilized longitudinal records starting January 1, 2018, to evaluate COVID-19 infections captured between January 1, 2020, and July 11, 2024. Results The study included 16,380 individuals, comprising 5,460 patients with lysosomal disorders and 10,920 matched controls. Patients with LDs had significantly higher odds of COVID-19 hospitalization compared with controls (OR = 1.86, 95% CI: 1.70-2.04). Elevated odds were observed across the evaluated categories, but varied substantially. Notably, neurodegenerative LDs such as neuronal ceroid lipofuscinosis (OR = 9.32) and metachromatic leukodystrophy (OR = 2.33) remained associated with hospitalization after adjustment for comorbidities. Contrarily, the elevated odds for Fabry disease and Gaucher disease were no longer significant after adjustment. Mortality among hospitalized patients with LDs was comparable to that of matched controls (one-year survival: 82.1% vs 82.0%), suggesting that LD status does not independently worsen survival once hospitalization occurs. Conclusions Patients with LDs were at an increased odds of COVID-19 hospitalization, driven by a combination of elevated comorbidity burden and disorder-specific effects, which vary significantly across LD categories. This study clarifies that excess risk is concentrated in the transition to hospitalization. These patients may thus require personalized clinical care to mitigate the negative consequences of COVID-19.

Geometry-Preserving Encoder/Decoder in Latent Generative Models

arXiv:2501.09876v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Generative modeling aims to generate new data samples that resemble a given dataset. When using diffusion models for this task, one of the main challenges is solving the problem in the input space, which tends to be very high-dimensional. To address this, recent approaches solve diffusion models in the latent space through an encoder that maps from the data space to a lower-dimensional latent space, improving training efficiency and achieving state-of-the-art results. The variational autoencoder (VAE) is the most commonly used encoder/decoder framework in this domain, known for its ability to learn latent representations and generate data samples. In this paper, we introduce a novel encoder/decoder framework with theoretical properties distinct from those of the VAE, specifically designed to preserve the geometric structure of the data distribution. We demonstrate the significant advantages of this geometry-preserving encoder in the training process of both the encoder and decoder. Additionally, we provide theoretical results proving convergence of the training process, including convergence guarantees for encoder training, and results showing faster convergence of decoder training when using the geometry-preserving encoder.