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01.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19

Advances in Scientific Machine Learning for Coupled Fluid Flow and Transport

arXiv:2606.19562v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: This chapter reviews recent advances in Scientific Machine Learning (SciML) for modeling coupled fluid flow and transport phenomena governed by the incompressible Navier-Stokes and scalar transport equations. Such systems, found in applications like turbidity currents and thermal convection, feature strong nonlinear coupling and multiscale behavior that make high-fidelity simulations computationally expensive. To address this, the chapter surveys state-of-the-art SciML methods for building efficient surrogate models, including linear reduced-order techniques based on Singular Value Decomposition (such as Dynamic Mode Decomposition) and nonlinear neural network approaches like Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) and $\beta$-Variational Autoencoders ($\beta$-VAEs). It first covers the authors' work combining these models with High Performance Computing strategies, including Adaptive Mesh Refinement/Coarsening (AMR/C) and scientific floating-point data compression. It then presents two new contributions: surrogate modeling of turbidity currents via PINNs, and the extraction of disentangled nonlinear modes from thermal flows using $\beta$-VAEs. Governing equations and representative benchmarks, including lock-exchange flows and Rayleigh-Bénard convection, illustrate these methodologies. The chapter is intentionally long, covering both the mathematical and physical foundations of coupled fluid flow and the computational aspects of state-of-the-art modeling. Overall, it demonstrates how SciML enables fast, accurate approximations of complex coupled systems within the specific data regimes and modeling assumptions considered, while substantially reducing computational cost relative to full-order simulations. Broader capabilities such as real-time prediction and uncertainty quantification remain active research directions whose feasibility depends strongly on the problem at hand.

02.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-24

Exact log-depth preparation of highly entangled matrix product states

arXiv:2606.24475v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Preparing matrix product states (MPS) on a quantum device is a key subroutine in many quantum algorithms. The most competitive methods, based on the renormalisation group, prepare translationally invariant MPS of size $L$ and bond dimension $\chi$, up to an error $\varepsilon$, in circuit depth $\tilde O(\chi^{4}\log(L/\varepsilon))$ or $\tilde O(\chi^{6}\log\log(L/\varepsilon))$. We improve multiple aspects of these methods. First, using block-encoded correction maps, whose post-selection succeeds with constant probability, we render the preparation exact without sacrificing the scaling in $L$. Second, through a generalisation of oblivious amplitude amplification to isometries, we reduce the bond-dimension dependence, improving the depth to $\tilde O(\chi^{2}\log L + \chi^{4})$ or $\tilde O(\chi^{2}\log\log L + \chi^{4})$, and even to $\tilde O(\chi^{3}\log L)$ for incoherent preparations. Finally, we extend the framework to non-translationally invariant MPS and prove logarithmic-depth exact preparation for independent and identically distributed random tensor sequences. Confirmed by numerical studies, these results constitute, to the best of our knowledge, the most efficient exact MPS preparation protocols in the relevant parameter regimes.

03.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-12

Attacking the First-Principle: A Black-Box, Query-Free Targeted Mimicry Attack on Binary Function Classifiers

arXiv:2605.18231v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Binary function classifiers play a crucial role in maintaining the security and integrity of software systems by detecting malicious code and unauthorized modifications. However, machine learning-based classifiers are vulnerable to adversarial attacks that can evade detection. In this study, we present Kelpie, a novel framework for executing mimicry attacks, a stronger type of targeted evasion attacks, on binary function classifiers in a black-box, zero-query setting. Unlike previous approaches that rely on querying the target classifier to refine untargeted evasion attacks, Kelpie leverages code transformations that preserve the functionality of malicious payloads while causing them to be misclassified as we want. Through extensive experimentation, we demonstrate that Kelpie can successfully execute mimicry attacks against six state-of-the-art binary function classifiers representing different model architectures without requiring direct interaction with them. We further validate our approach with a practical demonstration, involving a keylogger and a wiper concealed within benign-looking functions embedded in an application. This work, to our best knowledge, is the first to demonstrate such a mimicry attack in a black-box, zero-query context, raising important questions about the reliability and security of existing machine learning-based binary function classifiers.

04.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

Extending Item Response Theory for Efficient and Meaningful Multilingual Evaluation

Multilingual benchmarks are central to evaluating large language models (LLMs) across languages, but they suffer from three issues: exhaustive evaluation scales linearly with the number of languages, automatic translation introduces errors that are easily missed at scale, and some items conflate general and culture-specific knowledge. We address all three with a unified statistical framework, Multilingual-IRT, which extends Item Response Theory with per-language difficulty deviations, split discriminability separating content from language effects, and per-language ability residuals. Fitting Multilingual-IRT on 25 LLMs across 29 languages of MMLU-Pro-X, we show that its fitted parameters support three practical applications: predicting unobserved (item, LLM, language) instances with 11-16% lower binary cross-entropy than the strongest accuracy-based baseline, surfacing candidate translation errors distributed across all 28 non-English languages, whereas accuracy-based baselines concentrate detections in a few languages, and recovering culture-specific items that accuracy-based baselines miss.

05.
bioRxiv (Bioinfo) 2026-06-21

OracleScreen-LILRB4: Machine Learning-Guided Discovery of Myeloid Immune Checkpoint Binders Validated in Patient-Derived Cells

The identification of small molecule modulators of immune checkpoint proteins remains a significant challenge in drug discovery due to the flat, featureless nature of protein-protein interaction interfaces and the characteristically low hit rates observed in conventional high-throughput screening campaigns. Here we report OracleScreen-LILRB4, an ensemble machine learning framework trained on quantitative biophysical screening data from two structurally diverse compound libraries (19,800 compounds total) screened against the myeloid immune checkpoint leukocyte immunoglobulin-like receptor B4 (LILRB4/ILT3). By formulating binding prediction as a regression task targeting continuous {Delta}Fnorm values rather than binary hit classifications, OracleScreen-LILRB4 achieved a mean Spearman R of 0.61 and ROC-AUC of 0.86 under scaffold-aware cross-validation. Prospective virtual screening of a 45,760-member compound library and experimental validation of the top 200 predictions yielded a 28.5% hit rate, representing a 15.0-fold enrichment over baseline, with 16 compounds demonstrating nanomolar-affinity LILRB4 (ILT3) engagement. Lead compounds ORS-22 and ORS-14 restored anti-tumor immune activity across patient-derived colorectal cancer and acute myeloid leukemia co-culture systems, reversing SCG2-mediated immunosuppression and recovering cytotoxic T-cell function. These findings establish OracleScreen-LILRB4 as an effective computational framework for accelerating small molecule discovery against non-enzymatic immune checkpoint targets.

06.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-19

DeepForestVisionV2: Ecology-Driven Taxonomy Expansion for Camera-Trap Monitoring in African Tropical Forests

Camera-trap monitoring in African tropical forests increasingly extends beyond closed-canopy interiors to riverbanks, clearings, and park edges. Among available open tools for African forest camera-trap classification, DeepForestVision is the only one providing a matched offline workflow for both photographs and videos, and previous work showed that it outperformed other available baselines on a comparable benchmark. However, it was designed for closed-canopy, ground-level forest interiors and uses a 35-class prediction space that becomes too coarse when deployments encounter arboreal primates, birds, semi-aquatic taxa, or human-associated confounders such as livestock. We present DeepForestVisionV2, an ecology-driven expansion from 35 to 64 prediction classes (61 animal classes plus human, vehicle, and blank) designed to address three recurrent deployment gradients: vertical stratification, scene openness, and anthropogenic interfaces. DeepForestVisionV2 retains the same offline workflow and is trained on 1,535,010 photographs and 243,354 videos from multi-country African tropical-forest projects. Evaluation combines a cross-country cropped-photo validation set, used to assess robustness across sites and camera-trap settings, with three held-out Uganda video benchmarks spanning the targeted gradients. On the validation set, DeepForestVisionV2 reaches 0.86 accuracy, 0.82 macro-F1, and 0.81 balanced accuracy. On the deployment benchmarks, it preserves or improves baseline accuracy despite its harder classification task, while increasing the number of identified taxa from 22 to 29 in forest-interior videos and from 4 to 9 at riverbanks. In the park-edge use case, it raises accuracy from 0.62 to 0.86 and reduces false alarms from 11 to 0. These results show that DeepForestVisionV2 materially improves field utility while preserving robustness across sites, habitats, and camera-trap settings.

07.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-25

Agentic Knowledge Tracing: A Multi-Agent LLM Architecture for Stealth Assessment of Financial Literacy in Serious Games

arXiv:2606.25358v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Assessing financial literacy during gameplay without disrupting the learning experience remains a key challenge in serious games for education. We present the Agentic BKT pipeline, a multi-agent large language model architecture for stealth assessment of financial competencies from open-ended gameplay events. The pipeline processes events from a 2D platformer serious game aligned with the OECD/INFE financial literacy framework through four phases: (1) the game captures every player decision as a structured event log; (2) an LLM event classifier labels each action on a four-point rubric validated against three domain experts (Fleiss kappa = 0.624, substantial agreement); (3) four domain-specific agents specializing in risk mitigation, investing, spending, and credit management perform session-level reasoning over behavioral trajectories, feeding per-competency Bayesian Knowledge Tracing that estimates mastery within each domain; and (4) an expert judge agent synthesizes the domain-level estimates into an overall mastery score. Evaluated with 193 K-12 participants across 264 game sessions, the Agentic BKT pipeline yields mastery estimates significantly correlated with learning gain (r = 0.276, p = 0.0001) and post-test scores (r = 0.333, p < 0.0001) while showing no correlation with pre-test scores, providing both convergent and discriminant validity. The multi-agent approach approximately triples the predictive validity of a single-LLM baseline (r = 0.095, not significant) in this study, demonstrating that domain decomposition and session-level reasoning play a central role in capturing the multidimensional nature of financial literacy from gameplay

08.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-12

Dual-Domain Equivariant Generative Adversarial Network for Multimodal CT-PET Synthesis

We present a Dual-Domain Equivariant Generative Adversarial Network (DDE-GAN) for multimodal CT-PET image synthesis. Traditional GAN-based approaches often operate solely in the spatial domain and ignore geometric consistency, resulting in limited structural fidelity. DDE-GAN addresses these challenges by jointly learning from both spatial and frequency (Fourier) domains, capturing complementary anatomical and spectral information. Furthermore, rotational equivariance embedded in the physics of the CT and PET measurements are integrated into the loss of both the generator and discriminator to ensure consistent responses under rotations, improving anatomical accuracy. A hierarchical dual-domain training strategy enforces intra- and inter-domain consistency through multi-stage loss functions. Evaluated on the HECKTOR 2022 CT-PET dataset, DDE-GAN achieves superior synthesis quality over baseline models for CT-PET image synthesis. The results demonstrate that combining dual-domain learning with geometric equivariance substantially enhances multimodal image synthesis accuracy and robustness, enabling practical applications in PET completion and data augmentation.

09.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-12

Driven-dissipative entanglement of distant giant atoms

arXiv:2606.13375v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Quantum interconnects distribute entanglement via controlled light-matter interactions for quantum computing and sensing applications. Many entanglement generation schemes use coherent, reversible interactions that require precisely calibrated pulses to execute. In contrast, driven-dissipative protocols use a continuous-wave drive in the presence of correlated dissipation to stabilize entanglement in protected (dark) states. However, the same dissipation that generates the entanglement also limits its utility once the stabilization protocol ends. Here, we engineer a superconducting system of two giant artificial atoms coupled sequentially to a waveguide, with tunable individual and correlated dissipation enabled by interference between coupling points. Continuously driving the atoms through the waveguide exploits correlated dissipation to generate remote entanglement. We then tune the qubit frequencies in situ to suppress individual dissipation and thereby preserve the entanglement, achieving a Bell-state fidelity F = 0.89 +/- 0.02. This demonstration indicates that the driven dissipation of giant atoms is a viable approach for distributing entanglement across quantum networks.

10.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-11

A semi-definite programming formulation of the device-dependent guessing probability

arXiv:2606.12079v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In quantum mechanics, a measurement applied to a state in general produces some amount of intrinsic randomness. This is not only a fundamental feature of the theory, but is also at the basis of any quantum process to generate random numbers. The simplest of such processes consists of a single, fully charaterized, measurement acting on a single, fully characterized, state. Unfortunately, no general method to estimate the intrinsic randomness produced in such setups is known. In this work, we address this issue by presenting a semidefinite programming formulation of the maximum probability with which an adversary, Eve, can guess the outcomes of characterized but untrusted prepare-and-measure setups. We then present several applications of this construction. First, we apply our method to a variety of specific setups, allowing us both to benchmark the approach and, more importantly, to determine the exact amount of certifiable randomness in scenarios where only upper bounds were previously available. Then, we show that the presence of entanglement between the device preparing the state and the measurement strictly increases Eve's predictive power, already in the most elementary setup of a binary measurement acting on a qubit state.

11.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-17

Expanding SPHERE-JEPA: A Family of Statistical Regularizers for the Hypersphere

arXiv:2606.17603v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In Self-Supervised Learning (SSL), preventing representation collapse by explicitly enforcing a uniform distribution on the unit hypersphere has proven to be effective. However, current frameworks typically rely on sliced statistical regularizers such as SIGReg (used in LeJEPA) and SUSReg (used in SPHERE-JEPA), which approximate this continuous objective via Monte Carlo sampling along random 1D directions. This stochasticity injects projection variance into the training gradients, destabilizing optimization, and hindering convergence. In this work, we first show that analytically integrating out these random projections natively yields a deterministic Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD), bypassing the variance of sliced methods. Motivated by this equivalence, we formulate full-dimensional objectives for MMD, Kernel Stein Discrepancy (KSD), and Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence directly on the sphere to enforce a uniform distribution. To prevent spatial bias, we equip these tests with rotationally invariant kernels constructed via spectral theory, systematically evaluating two canonical families: smooth exponential decay (Heat) and strict frequency cutoff (Bandlimited) filters. Empirically, removing projection-induced noise results in more stable optimization, faster convergence, and consistent improvements over stochastic sliced regularizers on ImageNet and Galaxy10. Furthermore, we reveal that the choice of the statistical test shapes the geometry of the learned latent space: MMD and KSD favor locally clustered organization suitable for object-centric domains, whereas the continuous KDE-based KL divergence promotes fine-grained instance separation, yielding the strongest results on unclustered procedural texture retrieval.

12.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-17

Informative Missingness to Generate Irregular Clinical Time Series

arXiv:2606.17106v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Laboratory tests in electronic health records are collected irregularly, and the absence of a test order can be as informative as the measurement itself. Such missingness reflects clinicians' decisions and patient physiology, making it important to model it directly rather than treat it as a preprocessing artifact. Here we present a diffusion-based approach for generating clinical time series that jointly models laboratory values and their observation patterns using the public Data Analytics Challenge on Missing Data Imputation (DACMI) benchmark derived from MIMIC-III. To preserve realistic sampling, we align chart times into 4-hour intervals and segment admissions into 7-day windows, producing trajectories that pair each lab value with a corresponding observation indicator. Standard transformations and normalization are applied to stabilize training. Our method extends the TimeDiff framework to learn continuous lab values and discrete missingness patterns through complementary diffusion objectives. Experiments show that the generated data closely match real patient trajectories across individual lab distributions and joint value-missingness embeddings, demonstrating that diffusion models can capture clinically meaningful dependencies between patient physiology and clinicians' testing behavior under MNAR-like (missing-not-at-random) missingness. These preliminary results indicate that our model can serve as an initial component toward developing clinical foundation models. By producing synthetic priors that preserve key physiology-missingness relationships, this work motivates the subsequent training of Prior-Data Fitted Networks capable of leveraging informative missingness, which we will investigate in the extended work.

13.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-25

Sample complexity of unbalanced entropic OT

arXiv:2606.24987v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Optimal transport (OT) has become a central language for comparing probability measures, but exact balanced OT is often both too rigid for data with missing, created, or destroyed mass and subject to unfavorable high-dimensional sample complexity. Entropic regularization and unbalanced relaxations address these limitations in complementary ways. Entropy smooths the geometry, improves statistical behavior, and enables fast Sinkhorn-type algorithms, while unbalanced marginal penalties replace hard conservation constraints by divergence terms adapted to noisy empirical data. This paper studies the sample complexity of entropic unbalanced OT at the level of the optimal coupling, rather than only the scalar transport value. We develop a translation-invariant dual formulation, prove compactness and strong convexity properties for the intrinsic dual variables, and convert these geometric estimates into high-probability finite-sample bounds for empirical couplings. The results clarify why regularization is a practical necessity in machine learning applications: it softens the curse of dimensionality, reduces the number of samples needed for stable transport estimation, and keeps the resulting estimators compatible with scalable Sinkhorn-type solvers.

14.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-25

Multi-Agent Goal Recognition with Team- and Goal-Conditioned Reinforcement Learning and Factorized Branch-and-Bound

arXiv:2606.25978v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Multi-agent goal recognition asks an observer to jointly infer which agents act together and what each team is trying to achieve, so the hypothesis space grows combinatorially with the number of team partitions and goals per team. Real applications such as drone surveillance and collaborative robotics expose only the agents' trajectory, which forces the observer to rank team-goal hypotheses from behavior alone. Multi-Agent Goal Recognition with Branch-and-Bound (MAGR-BB) addresses this setting with a shared team- and goal-conditioned policy used as the scoring model inside a factorized branch-and-bound search. On a controlled multi-agent Blocksworld benchmark, MAGR-BB returns the same top-ranked hypothesis as exhaustive search throughout the trajectory while cutting hypothesis materialization by orders of magnitude and reducing cumulative recognition runtime substantially.

15.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-11

Triangular-Reference Schrödinger Bridges for Time Series Generation

arXiv:2605.27478v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Schrödinger bridges for time series (SBTS) generate synthetic paths by projecting, in relative entropy, a Brownian reference onto the path laws that match the joint distribution of the data on the observation grid. The Brownian reference, however, fixes the quadratic variation of the generated paths, which is restrictive when stochastic volatility, correlated noise, or rank-deficient covariance structures must be reproduced. We introduce "Triangular-Reference Schrödinger Bridges for Time Series" (TR-SBTS), which keeps the entropy-projection backbone of SBTS but replaces the Brownian reference by a triangular, volatility-informed, intervalwise frozen reference on a state augmented with latent covariance descriptors. The construction remains a single entropy projection on the augmented state: the minimiser is the \(h\)-transform of the reference, and on each frozen interval the optimal drift has the logarithmic-gradient form \(b^\star(t,x)=A\,\nabla\log H(t,x)\), intrinsic to the active covariance directions when the frozen covariance \(A\) is degenerate. We prove stability of the frozen approximation and consistency of the associated regularised kernel estimators, describe a reference-aware Nadaraya–Watson implementation of the conditional next-increment law, and evaluate the construction on numerical experiments.

16.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

Connecting Speech to Words through Images

How can we learn the mapping between written words and their spoken counterparts in the absence of explicit textual supervision? We present a visually grounded method for building a vocabulary of spoken words using only images and their spoken descriptions. First, image captioning systems are used to build a vocabulary of written words representing salient visual concepts in the images. For each word, we then find utterances whose image captions contain that word. Then we use an unsupervised word discovery technique to align these utterances to locate instances of the target word. The result is spoken word segments that are linked to written words – all accomplished without any text supervision. In spoken word retrieval and keyword spotting experiments, the proposed approach outperforms a strong neural baseline while being more interpretable. These results demonstrate the feasibility of the approach in English and motivate future work on low-resource languages without transcripts.

17.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-17

An Evaluation of Data Leakage Risks in Tool-Using LLM Agents in Realistic Scenarios

arXiv:2606.17114v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: AI agents are increasingly being adopted in enterprise and personal settings with access to emails, databases, documents, and other tools where they can read, update, and disseminate sensitive information. Much of prior research on data leakage risks in agents has focused on adversarial data exfiltration through prompt injections and jailbreaks. However, sensitive information may also be exposed during non-adversarial use, creating leakage risks even when users issue benign requests. We report a joint evaluation by the Singapore AI Safety Institute and the Korea AI Safety Institute examining agent data leakage in 12 realistic, non-adversarial tasks spanning customer support, DevOps, web automation, and enterprise and personal productivity. The evaluation covers five risk types: lack of data awareness, audience awareness, policy compliance, data minimization, and access-boundary awareness. Both institutes tested a common set of scenarios mirroring real-world deployments using independent testing environments and task-specific LLM-judge rubrics. Across the three tested agents, none achieved fully correct and fully safe execution across all scenarios. Successful task completion often coincided with data-handling failures such as accessing unnecessary information or disclosing information to inappropriate recipients, indicating that capability and data-handling safety should be evaluated separately. Qualitative review also revealed claim-action mismatches, simulation-aware behavior, user-simulator role reversal, and interpretation gaps in automated judging. Overall, the results indicate that operational data leakage is a first-order agent-safety concern distinct from adversarial exfiltration and provide a methodology for future evaluations of agent data-handling safety.

18.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-15

HARBOR: Heading Analysis and Reconstruction from Behavioral Observation and Radar

Maritime situational awareness often relies on Automatic Identification System (AIS) transmissions to track vessel movements. However, in operational or conflict scenarios, these data may be unavailable due to signal loss, deliberate deactivation, or intentional spoofing. In such conditions, synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery becomes a critical sensing alternative for wide-area maritime monitoring, despite providing only static scene snapshots. This work introduces HARBOR (Heading Analysis and Reconstruction from Behavioral Observation and Radar), a complete pipeline for transforming a single SAR image into predictive motion information without requiring any auxiliary data source at inference time. The method begins with SAR image preprocessing to enhance and segment vessel candidates, followed by automatic detection, size-based classification, and heading estimation using skeleton geometry and local intensity patterns. AIS data are used exclusively during an offline calibration phase to derive vessel-type-dependent motion parameters, which are then applied to generate probabilistic heatmaps of candidate future vessel positions. A case study using real COSMO-SkyMed SAR imagery demonstrates the pipeline on a maritime scene in southern Brazil, showing its ability to extract motion tendencies and generate probabilistic projections of vessel positions in data-denied environments.

19.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-12

Revisiting Vehicle Color Recognition in Long-Tailed Surveillance Scenarios

Vehicle color recognition is an important cue for vehicle identification in surveillance systems, especially when license plates are illegible due to low resolution, occlusion, motion blur, or poor illumination. However, real-world vehicle color distributions are highly imbalanced, making overall accuracy insufficient to assess performance on rare but operationally relevant colors. This paper presents a comprehensive study of vehicle color recognition under severe class imbalance using UFPR-VeSV, a challenging real-world surveillance dataset. We investigate synthetic minority-class augmentation through two off-the-shelf generative strategies: text-conditioned image generation with RunDiffusion/JuggernautXL and image-conditioned color editing with Gemini 2.0 Flash. The curated synthetic data are combined with modern visual representations, loss reweighting, learning-rate scheduling, color-safe augmentation, foreground-aware preprocessing, and ensemble fusion. The bestperforming approach achieves 94.6% micro accuracy and 79.7% macro accuracy, improving macro accuracy by 8.2 percentage points over recent literature. A manual error analysis further shows that many remaining failures are visually ambiguous even for human annotators, highlighting the practical limits of color-based vehicle identification in unconstrained surveillance imagery. The generated images and source code are publicly available at https://github.com/viniciusorru/vcr-synthetic

20.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19

Learning to Emulate Chaos: Adversarial Optimal Transport Regularization

arXiv:2604.21097v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Chaos arises in many complex dynamical systems, from weather to power grids, but is difficult to accurately model with data-driven methods such as machine learning emulators. While emulators are promising tools for accelerating simulations and solving inverse problems, they still struggle to learn chaotic dynamics, where sensitivity to initial conditions renders exact long-term forecasts infeasible, especially given noisy data. Recent work instead trains emulators to match the statistical properties of chaotic attractors, but these approaches often rely on handcrafted summary statistics or large, diverse multi-environment datasets. In this work, we propose a family of adversarial optimal transport objectives that can jointly learn high-quality summary statistics and a physically consistent emulator from a single noisy trajectory. We theoretically analyze and experimentally validate a Sinkhorn divergence formulation (2-Wasserstein) and a WGAN-style dual formulation (1-Wasserstein) of our approach. Numerical experiments across a variety of chaotic systems, including ones with high-dimensional spatiotemporal chaos, show that emulators trained using our proposed objectives have significantly improved long-term statistical fidelity.

21.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-18

INDEQS: Informed Neural controlled Differential EQuationS

arXiv:2606.19138v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Neural Controlled Differential Equations (NCDE) provide a powerful continuous-time framework for forecasting time series, but standard graph-based extensions typically learn spatial structure purely from data, even in settings where a directed graph structure is known a priori. We introduce Informed Neural controlled Differential EQuationS (INDEQS), a graph-based NCDE forecasting method that incorporates prior knowledge of a directed graph at distinct architectural positions. INDEQS separates inner mixing of hidden states across graph nodes from outer mixing between vector field and control, and offers both a lightweight graph-constrained variant and a more expressive variant, learning additional graph connections from data via adaptive graph convolutions. To systematically study when graph informedness is beneficial in forecasting, we devise a continuous advection simulation on directed graphs, yielding synthetic spatio-temporal datasets with known ground-truth flow structure. We then evaluate INDEQS on two real-world tasks: river discharge forecasting on a hydrological network and traffic flow prediction on PeMS08. Across these synthetic and real-world benchmarks, outer informedness consistently improves mean absolute error over an uninformed NCDE with comparable parameter count, particularly on larger graphs, while inner informedness offers a more parameter-efficient alternative when strict adherence to a known adjacency is desired. A comparison of discrete convolutional and continuous-time decoders further shows that continuous decoders yield better accuracy and greater temporal flexibility on real-world tasks. An implementation of INDEQS and the advection simulation is available at https://github.com/Mitchi1/indeqs.

22.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-15

Think Fast: Estimating No-CoT Task-Completion Time Horizons of Frontier AI Models

arXiv:2606.07157v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Many efforts to ensure frontier AI models are safe rely on monitoring their chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning. If models become able to perform sufficiently complex reasoning internally, without explicit thinking tokens, this would undermine such oversight. We measure how well frontier models reason without CoT across a suite of over 30,000 questions spanning 43 benchmarks in domains including math, coding, puzzles, causality, theory-of-mind, and strategic reasoning. To compare models against humans, we estimate the $50\%$-task-completion time horizon (TH): the human time required for tasks a model completes with $50\%$ success rate. We complement this with a $50\%$ reasoning token horizon: the minimum number of o3-mini reasoning tokens needed for tasks a model solves with $50\%$ success rate. We find that the no-CoT $50\%$ TH of frontier models has been doubling roughly every year over the past six years, with GPT-5.5's TH reaching over 3 minutes and reasoning token horizon exceeding 1,500 tokens. Our median estimates predict that frontier no-CoT THs could exceed 7 minutes by 2028, and 25 minutes by 2030, though these projections carry substantial uncertainty. We recommend frontier developers track this explicitly.

23.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

Attention, not scale, drives human-AI alignment in multimodal language prediction

Humans routinely draw on visual context to predict upcoming words. To what extent current vision-language models produce comparable behaviour is unclear. Here we placed five state-of-the-art pretrained systems side-by-side with 600 human participants in a web-based Visual-World Paradigm. On each of 100 six-second movie clips, models and participants received either text only or synchronised video and text and judged how likely a specified target word was to appear next; human eye movements were tracked throughout. Adding visual context increased model-human alignment in predictability ratings across all architectures (average Delta r = 0.18) with no impact of parameter size. When visual context was informative, transformer attention significantly increased alignment. Attention maps from two transformer models corresponded with human gaze, explaining up to 70% of the inter-participant variance when the scene contained informative cues. Notably, cross-modal attention reliably tracked anticipatory human fixations on semantic cues. These results suggest that current transformer-based vision-language models can approximate human behaviour exploiting visual context during language prediction - and that selective attention to informative cues, not sheer model scale, is the principal driver of this alignment.

24.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-17

Manifold GCN: Diffusion-based Convolutional Neural Network for Manifold-valued Graphs

arXiv:2401.14381v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We propose two graph neural network layers for graphs with features in a Riemannian manifold. First, based on a manifold-valued graph diffusion equation, we construct a diffusion layer that can be applied to an arbitrary number of nodes and graph connectivity patterns. Second, we model a tangent multilayer perceptron by transferring ideas from the vector neuron framework to our general setting. Both layers are equivariant under node permutations and the feature manifold's isometries. These properties have led to a beneficial inductive bias in many deep-learning tasks. Furthermore, they enable novel, more flexible feature designs. Numerical examples on synthetic data and an Alzheimer's classification application on triangle meshes of the right hippocampus demonstrate the usefulness of our new layers: While they apply to a much broader class of problems, they outperform task-specific state-of-the-art networks.

25.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-16

Quantum Nonlocal Games on Graph Ensembles

arXiv:2606.16784v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Quantum entanglement is one of the most striking discoveries in all of science. This effect allows, for instance, two spatially separated agents to coordinate their actions, without communication, to an extent that is both counter-intuitive, and provably impossible by any other physical means. A recently discovered example is that of mobile agents (players) performing spatial coordination tasks such as rendezvous, where the agents aim to meet on a network without communication. Until now, demonstrations of this advantage have relied on highly idealized conditions: agents are assumed to have complete knowledge of the topography, and experiments have been restricted to simulations using data generated by qubits within a single quantum processor. Here we address both limitations by developing a theory for graph ensembles that capture topographical uncertainty and by experimentally demonstrating the advantage in rendezvous scenarios between physically separated ion-trap systems with access to remote entanglement. Moreover, we simulate a broader set of problems on superconducting hardware. Surprisingly, when players are given the ability to gather more local information the quantum advantage increases – a feat impossible by classical means. Our findings establish a concrete route toward practical quantum advantages in motion coordination problems. More broadly, they point to a new way of using portable quantum devices to enhance collective decision-making in uncertain environments.