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01.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-19

Unveiling coherent dynamics in non-Markovian open quantum systems: exact expression and recursive perturbation expansion

arXiv:2506.04097v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We introduce a systematic framework to derive the effective Hamiltonian governing the coherent dynamics of non-Markovian open quantum systems. By applying the minimal dissipation principle, we uniquely isolate the coherent contribution to the time-local generator of the reduced dynamics. We derive a general expression for the effective Hamiltonian and develop a recursive perturbative expansion that expresses it in terms of system-bath interaction terms and bath correlation functions. This expansion provides a systematic tool for analyzing energy renormalization effects across different coupling regimes. Applying our framework to paradigmatic spin systems, we reveal how environmental correlations influence energy shifts and eigenbasis rotations, offering new insights into strong-coupling effects and non-Markovian quantum thermodynamics.

02.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-23

Respiratory support with Continuous Positive Airway Pressure in preterm neonates: an analysis of coverage and quality of care in 66 neonatal units in Kenya, Malawi, Nigeria and Tanzania implementing with the NEST360 Alliance

Background: Prematurity is the leading cause of child deaths worldwide, with the highest neonatal mortality in sub Saharan Africa. Respiratory distress syndrome (RDS) is the leading mortality pathway in preterm neonates, but continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) has high impact. This analysis reports CPAP coverage and quality of care for preterm neonates admitted to 66 neonatal units in Kenya, Malawi, Nigeria and Tanzania. Methods: Analyses used individually linked neonatal inpatient data and cross-sectional health systems data. All admitted neonates were eligible for inclusion (January 2021 through December 2024). Service readiness for CPAP delivery and mean CPAP coverage were described for CPAP eligible newborns (weighing 1500g). Quality of care cascades were constructed to illustrate key indicators. Survival among CPAP eligible neonates was analysed using regression models, stratified by clinical severity scores. Results: 375,255 newborn admissions were analysed in 66 neonatal units. Functional CPAP availability varied with median 16% of days (IQR: 4 to 47%) classified as high demand (>1.5 eligible newborns per CPAP). Of 64,761 CPAP eligible neonates, 22,006 (34%, 95% CI 33 to 34%) received CPAP. All countries showed improvement in CPAP coverage, with Tanzanian hospitals recording 63% increase in mean coverage (p-value=0.001) over time. Quality of care cascades showed treatment was initiated 1 day for 42% (95% CI 41 to 43%) of eligible neonates receiving CPAP. Only 10% of neonates

03.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-16

Risk or Replace: Efficient Asymptotics for Data-Driven Maintenance

arXiv:2606.14706v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Condition-based maintenance (CBM) is an approach that plans interventions for deteriorating systems according to their observed operational state. CBM reduces unplanned downtime and extends usable lifetime. We study a heterogeneous population of components that degrade over time according to a stochastic processes with non-negative and i.i.d. increments that are characterized by component-specific parameters that remain unobservable to the decision maker. We rely on degradation data to estimate these parameters and determine replacement actions at equidistant epochs. The goal is to minimize the long-run average cost, which incorporates fixed replacement costs, failure costs, and operating costs. This problem can be formulated as a high-dimensional partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP), which is generally intractable. We develop a tractable, data-driven CBM policy that estimates the optimal policy of a hypothetical Oracle that has full information of the underlying degradation parameters and call this policy the Estimated Oracle's Optimal Policy (EOP). We introduce a scaling regime where both the failure thresholds and cost parameters increase proportionally, reflecting practical settings in which component lifetimes and maintenance costs are large relative to the time between two consecutive CBM decision moments. We show that the regret of the EOP, defined as the difference between its long-run average cost and that of the Oracle, converges to zero in the scaling regime when the parameter estimator is consistent. Across extensive experiments using both real and simulated data, the EOP achieves very low regret and, whenever the optimal POMDP policy can be computed exactly, a negligible optimality gap.

04.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-17

On the Memorization Behavior of LLMs in Generative Recommendation: Observations, Implications, and Training Strategies

arXiv:2606.17276v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Generative recommendation (GR) has emerged as a promising direction for recommender systems. Recently, large language models (LLMs) have been increasingly adopted for GR, as their rich pretrained knowledge is expected to help them generalize beyond common user behavior patterns that traditional memorization-oriented baselines can capture. However, existing LLM-based GR works largely ignore LLMs' well-known tendency to memorize, which, if present in LLMs fine-tuned for GR, would restrict their utilization of pretrained knowledge. In this work, we investigate this concern by examining one-hop memorization, where a model recommends items that are direct successors of items in the training data. We show that LLMs do this more than non-LLM-based GR models-in fact, the vast majority of their gains over GR baselines are actually on users whose target items can be predicted through one-hop memorization. We intuit that improving performance on the remaining users requires LLMs to learn richer item-item relations beyond one-hop transitions. To achieve this, we propose IIRG, a novel training strategy that teaches LLMs to capture: (1) collaborative relations derived from item co-occurrences across multiple hops in user sequences, and (2) semantic relations among items with similar themes, both of which can serve as useful recommendation signals. We show that IIRG significantly improves over LLMs trained solely with standard next-item prediction, with especially large gains for users whose test items are not covered by train-time one-hop transitions.

05.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-22

Dengue and chikungunya virus transmission in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo

Dengue (DENV) and chikungunya (CHIKV) are understudied in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and across Africa despite evidence of transmission. We measured DENV and CHIKV IgG seroprevalences in Kinshasa Province, DRC, by antigen-capture ELISA, using dried blood spots from 2021. Force of infection (FOI) was estimated from age-stratified seroprevalences using Bayesian catalytic modeling. Among 1,250 participants, DENV IgG seroprevalence was 38.1% (95% CI: 34.5%-41.8%), increasing with age, and highest within peri-urban Kimpoko sites (54.9%). CHIKV IgG seroprevalence was 24.2% (95% CI: 21.1%-27.6%), increasing with age and comparable between peri-urban Kimpoko and rural Bu, with few seropositives in the city-center. DENV-CHIKV IgG co-occurrence was detected in 12.8% of participants. Time-varying FOI models provided best fit to age-stratified seroprevalences, with spatial variation detected. Sustained DENV and CHIKV circulation across Kinshasa highlights an under-appreciated transmission risk and underscores the need for strengthened arboviral surveillance in the DRC and surrounding region.

06.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-15

Dose-efficient Quantum Phase Estimation in Lossy Optical Interferometry

arXiv:2606.14254v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Optical interferometry is a cornerstone technique for precise phase measurements across various fields. In many applications, for example, biological imaging, it often necessitates stringent limits on light intensity to prevent adverse effects on light-sensitive samples, a condition known as dose-limited regimes. Maximizing the precision per dose is therefore crucial. In quantum metrology, quantum correlations enable high precision in phase estimation while adhering to dose constraints. Nevertheless, photon loss, including absorption by a sample, substantially diminishes the benefits of quantum enhancement in interferometry. In this work, we experimentally investigate a dose-efficient approach to quantum phase estimation using sequential strategies in the presence of loss. Performance of sequential strategies with and without control is evaluated through quantum Fisher information (QFI) per dose. Experimental results show that both sequential strategies exceed the classical limit and outperform the parallel strategy using unbalanced N00N states. Notably, the control-enhanced sequential strategy attains superior QFI per dose, approaching the quantum limit. These results highlight the promise of sequential strategy for imaging and sensing in resource-constrained scenarios, marking a significant step toward practical and efficient quantum metrology in lossy environments.

07.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-24

The Warrant Gap: Claim-Conditioned Re-scoring for Fact-Checking

Fact-checking systems built on LLMs achieve high verdict accuracy on standard benchmarks, yet routinely output Supports labels whose cited evidence does not license the claim. Structured decomposition is the natural way to inspect those warrants, but rigid extraction protocols strip the full-claim context that facets need. We introduce SIFT – claim-conditioned re-scoring of extracted evidence spans against the full claim – paired with WSP (Warranted Supports Proportion), an automatic NLI check that the cited warrant entails the claim. We evaluate on FEVER, SciFact, 5PILS, and DP across four open-source backbones. SIFT recovers accuracy on cells where naive decomposition costs up to 27.6 points, while raising WSP above direct prompting; WSP itself calibrates against human gold evidence at AUC 0.92 and precision 0.98.

08.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-15

Implicit Reasoning for Large Language Model-based Generative Recommendation

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly adopted as backbones for Generative Recommendation (GR), promising access to pretrained world knowledge. Yet reliably invoking this knowledge for GR remains poorly understood. A key obstacle is that LLM-based GR typically represents items with Semantic IDs (SIDs), disrupting LLMs' natural-language reasoning interface because these tokens are unseen by the LLM during pretraining. Existing approaches address this with expensive multi-stage pipelines that ground SIDs and elicit explicit rationales, but offer limited insight into when and why each stage is necessary. In this work, we systematically decompose explicit reasoning training pipelines for LLM-based GR, revealing three key limitations: weakened world-knowledge verbalization, misalignment between SID and natural-language token embedding spaces, and sensitivity to rationale quality, all of which hurt explicit reasoning performance. To circumvent these issues, we propose PauseRec, a lightweight implicit reasoning paradigm tailored for GR. PauseRec is exceptionally practical, avoiding costly reasoning trace acquisition and reasoning alignment training, leading to a multitude of benefits: (1) it outperforms standard explicit CoT methods by up to 6.22%, (2) it reduces training cost by up to 65% GPU hours, and (3) it speeds up inference by up to 71.3%. These results position PauseRec as a lightweight alternative to explicit rationale generation, enabling more effective and efficient LLM-based GR.

09.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-24

Open-source LLMs administer maximum electric shocks in a Milgram-like obedience experiment

arXiv:2605.21401v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed as autonomous agents that make sequences of decisions over extended interactions in high-stakes domains. However, the behaviour of LLMs under sustained authority pressure is still an open question with direct implications for the safety of agentic pipelines. We ran a variation of Milgram's obedience experiment on 11 open-source LLMs and found that most models reached or approached the final shock level before refusing, across 8 conditions with 30 trials per model per condition. Model behaviour varies considerably in multiple aspects both across models and across trials of the same model. We found four main takeaways: (1) LLMs are subject to pressure and they comply despite explicitly expressing distress, just like human subjects did in the original experiment; (2) LLMs are vulnerable to gradual boundary/value violations; (3) when LLMs refuse, they may ignore the response format requirements, so the response is discarded by the orchestrator, which causes a retry that can result in compliance with the underlying request even when refusal was intended initially; (4) we hypothesise that there is a runaway low-level token pattern continuation attractor that might be contributing to obedience, overriding higher level processing of the situation's meaning and values.

10.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-24

KLip-PPO: A per-sample KL perspective on PPO-Clip

arXiv:2606.23932v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) is the standard policy-gradient algorithm for on-policy reinforcement learning. The literature presents it in two forms, a clipped surrogate that bounds the importance ratio between successive policies and a Kullback-Leibler penalty between them. These forms are treated as separate algorithms with their own gradients, their own hyperparameters, and their own reference implementations, and a sizeable body of empirical work compares them. We show that the gradient of the clipped surrogate is reproduced exactly by a Kullback-Leibler surrogate whose coefficient varies per sample, with closed-form dependence on the importance ratio and the advantage. The identity holds at every minibatch step and across the entire inner loop, and on five MuJoCo continuous-control benchmarks the two losses produce indistinguishable training curves. The reformulation exposes a structural feature of the clipped surrogate that the min notation hides. PPO-Clip's implicit per-sample penalty is a step function at the boundary of the trust region, and the shape of this coefficient is the natural design axis for generalising the algorithm. We sketch the resulting follow-up directions in the discussion.

11.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-24

AI-Driven Predictive Maintenance with Environmental Context Integration for Connected Vehicles: Simulation, Benchmarking, and Field Validation

arXiv:2603.13343v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Predictive maintenance for connected vehicles offers the potential to reduce unexpected breakdowns and improve fleet reliability, but most existing systems rely exclusively on internal diagnostic signals and are validated on simulated or industrial benchmark data. This paper presents a contextual data fusion framework integrating vehicle-internal sensor streams with external environmental signals – road quality, weather, traffic density, and driver behaviour – acquired via V2X communication and third-party APIs, with inference at the vehicle edge. The framework is evaluated across four layers. A feature group ablation study on a physics-informed synthetic dataset shows contextual features contribute a 2.6-point F1 improvement; removing all context reduces macro F1 from 0.855 to 0.807. On the AI4I 2020 benchmark (10,000 samples), LightGBM achieves AUC-ROC 0.973 under 5-fold stratified cross-validation with SMOTE confined to training folds. A noise sensitivity analysis shows macro F1 remains above 0.88 at low noise and degrades to 0.74 at high noise. Most critically, the pipeline is validated on real-world telemetry from five vehicles across three countries (India, Germany, Brazil), comprising 992 trips and 11 evaluable service events identified from component wear resets in the trip logs. Across six wear-driven events spanning four vehicles, the model achieves 100% detection with mean MAE of 12.2 days. A fine-tuning ablation shows the base synthetic model already achieves 6/6 binary detection; per-vehicle adaptation reduces wear-driven MAE from 25.9 to 12.2 days. SHAP analysis confirms contextual and interaction features rank among the top 15 predictors. Edge-based inference reduces estimated latency from 3.5 seconds to under 1.0 second relative to cloud-only processing.

12.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-11

Towards Responsibly Non-Compliant Machines

arXiv:2606.12147v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We consider the problem of engineering autonomous intelligent agents that are capable to responsibly not comply with user requests. We argue that machine non-compliance comes in many different forms, and sketch the issues we should pursue on the road of accomplishing responsibly non-compliant intelligent machines. We anchor responsible non-compliance in justifications for task refusal, pathways to override the non-compliance, as well as careful tracking of security risks and liability transfers.

13.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Branching Flows: Discrete, Continuous, and Manifold Flow Matching with Splits and Deletions

arXiv:2511.09465v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Diffusion and flow matching approaches to generative modeling have shown promise in domains where the state space is continuous, such as image generation or protein folding & design, and discrete, exemplified by diffusion large language models. They offer a natural fit when the number of elements in a state is fixed in advance (e.g. images), but require ad hoc solutions when, for example, the length of a response from a large language model, or the number of amino acids in a protein chain is not known a priori. Here we propose Branching Flows, a generative modeling framework that, like diffusion and flow matching approaches, transports a simple distribution to the data distribution. But in Branching Flows, the elements in the state evolve over a forest of binary trees, branching and dying stochastically with rates that are learned by the model. This allows the model to control, during generation, the number of elements in the sequence. We also show that Branching Flows can compose with any flow matching base process on discrete sets, continuous Euclidean spaces, smooth manifolds, and `multimodal' product spaces that mix these components. We demonstrate this in three domains: small molecule generation (multimodal), antibody sequence generation (discrete), and protein backbone generation (multimodal), and show that Branching Flows is a capable distribution learner with a stable learning objective, and that it enables new capabilities.

14.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

Detecting Hate and Inflammatory Content in Bengali Memes: A New Multimodal Dataset and Co-Attention Framework

Internet memes have become a dominant form of expression on social media, including within the Bengali speaking community. While often humorous, memes can also be exploited to spread offensive, harmful, and inflammatory content targeting individuals and groups. Detecting this type of content is exceptionally challenging due to its satirical, subtle, and culturally specific nature. This problem is magnified for low-resource languages like Bengali, as existing research predominantly focuses on high-resource languages. To address this critical research gap, we introduce Bn-HIB (Bangla Hate Inflammatory Benign), a novel dataset containing 3,247 manually annotated Bengali memes categorized as Benign, Hate, or Inflammatory. Significantly, Bn- HIB is the first dataset to distinguish inflammatory content from direct hate speech in Bengali memes. Furthermore, we propose the MCFM (Multi-Modal Co-Attention Fusion Model), a simple yet effective architecture that mutually analyses both the visual and textual elements of a meme. MCFM employs a co-attention mechanism to identify and fuse the most critical features from each modality, leading to a more accurate classification. Our experiments show that MCFM significantly outperforms several state-of-the-art models on the Bn-HIB dataset, demonstrating its effectiveness in this nuanced task. To facilitate reproducibility and future research, the Bn-HIB dataset has been made publicly available through Mendeley Data. Warning: This work contains material that may be disturbing to some audience members. Viewer discretion is advised

15.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-24

What Does ODRL Mean? A Cross-Level Ontological Grounding of Permissions, Prohibitions, and Duties in UFO-L

arXiv:2606.24344v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: ODRL policy evaluators produce verdicts, but say nothing about the normative positions a policy brings into existence, the authority structures those positions presuppose, or who holds the power to declare a norm violated. We formulate the Cross-Level Design Principle: any normative language with violable, consequential norms requires both conduct-level positions (Permission, Duty, Right, No right) and competence-level positions (Power, Subjection, Immunity, Disability). Applying this to ODRL, we establish that prohibition is sanctioned (violation possible and consequential), that permission is underspecified across its behaviour parameter (open vs. closed world), and that the formal semantics covers achievement obligations only. We ground ODRL in UFO-L, mapping each activated rule to a simple legal relator and extending coverage from two to eight legal positions; violation-declaration authority, implicit in every existing evaluator, becomes an explicit Power-Subjection pair. All axioms are mechanically verified in Isabelle/HOL and across a 39-problem benchmark under Vampire, E, and Z3.

16.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19

Constrained hybrid modelling to predict microbial dynamics and organic matter turnover in soil systems

arXiv:2606.20329v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Soil microorganisms control organic matter cycling and largely determine how soil systems can cope with and mitigate climate change and environmental threats. Representing microbial dynamics in process-based soil models is therefore critical to predict carbon cycling in soils, albeit highly challenging to inform from data. One promising approach to improve their parametrisation is the integration of genomic data, yet modelling the complex and unknown relationship between genomes and the processes the microbes are driving is an unsolved problem. In this work, we present the first hybrid modeling framework for deriving biokinetic parameter values of a process-based soil organic matter turnover model from metagenome-inferred functional traits based on DNA sequencing data. Our model predicts biokinetic parameters of the process-based model from genomic trait data with a neural network and integrates constraints from ecological theory and literature to ensure realistic behavior, even of non-observed state variables. We evaluate our method on synthetic genomic trait datasets of varying complexity and on real data, showing that our approach improves performance over multiple baselines and learns the dynamics of unmeasurable components of the process-based model effectively, even for small training datasets.

17.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-23

Innate immunity associates with protection from pneumococcal colonisation, but colonisation does not confer capsule-independent protection

Nasopharyngeal colonisation with Streptococcus pneumoniae is a prerequisite for transmission and disease and represents an important immunising event. While colonisation induces serotype-specific immunity, the mechanisms underlying heterologous protection remain unclear. We developed a controlled human infection model using pneumococcal serotype 15B and investigated colonisation dynamics, immunogenicity, and cross-protection against subsequent heterologous challenge with serotype 6B. Fifty-four healthy adults were intranasally inoculated with 15B at escalating doses. Colonisation rates peaked at 31.4% with 8 x 10 CFU per naris, lower than those historically observed with 6B and 3 strains. Density was also lower than previously observed with other strains. In vitro assays demonstrated that 15B adhered more readily to epithelial cells than 6B, but was less efficiently internalised, potentially reducing attack rates and colonisation density. Colonisation with 15B induced capsular polysaccharide-specific serum IgG, but baseline humoral immune measures did not predict protection from acquisition. Prior colonisation with 15B did not reduce acquisition of 6B upon re-challenge. Analysis of nasal microbiopsy samples revealed distinct innate activation signatures. Resistance to colonisation was associated with elevated baseline MIP-1 and MIP-1{beta} responses upon in vitro stimulation, whereas carriage was associated with enhanced chemokine and IL-6 responses. Local innate immune activation, rather than circulating antibody responses alone, may therefore contribute to colonisation control. We demonstrate that experimental colonisation with 15B does not confer heterologous protection against 6B and highlight the importance of mucosal innate immune conditioning in serotype-independent defence. Strategies enhancing nasal innate immune recruitment and activation may be required for broader protection against pneumococcal colonisation.

18.
bioRxiv (Bioinfo) 2026-06-18

Accounting for allelic diversity and multicopy gene detection improves the accuracy of antibiotic resistance genotypic determination

Background Genomic prediction of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) relies on the accurate detection of resistance genes or allelic variants of core genes from raw or assembled genomes sequences. For several bacterial species and antibiotics, AMR genotype-phenotype discrepancies are common, indicating that important sources of error remain unresolved. For Enterococcus faecium, we focused on identifying the sources of discrepancies for tetracycline resistance, for which genotypic detection had shown particularly low accuracy. We investigated the effect of structural variation in antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs), including gene duplications, truncations, interruptions, and mixed configurations of complete and partial gene copies, as a source of genotype-phenotype discrepancies from short-read data. We conduct further extended investigations to other antibiotic families and into another bacterial species: Escherichia coli. Methods We analyzed collections of E. faecium and E. coli genomes, integrating high-quality complete assemblies, simulated Illumina short reads, and matched AMR phenotypic data. The integrity, copy number, and allelic diversity of ARGs were examined for multiple antibiotic classes, and their impact on ARG detection and accuracy of AMR determination was assessed using several commonly used bioinformatic tools (SRST2, ARIBA and AMRFinderPlus). Results For E. faecium, after ruling out the effect of specific tet allelic variants on tetracycline susceptibility, we found that the integrity and copy number of tet(M) had a major effect on detection accuracy. Duplicated and incomplete ARGs are also common in E. faecium genomes, particularly for macrolides (erm(B)) and aminoglycosides (ant(6)-Ia and aph(3')-IIIa). In E. coli, similar patterns were observed for tet(A), erm(B) and aminoglycoside-associated genes (aph(3')-IIIa and ant(6)-Ia). Across ARGs in both species, short-read mapping methods wrongly reported interrupted genes as complete in some instances, while assembly-based methods often failed to resolve complete copies of duplicated genes. Detection accuracy improved when tools were adapted to account for gene integrity and when extended AMR databases incorporating species-specific alleles were included. Conclusions Our findings reveal that bioinformatic limitations in dealing with ARG copy number and completeness, and in accounting for allelic variation, underly a substantial source of genotype-phenotype errors, highlighting the need for improved AMR databases and bioinformatic tools that consider these factors to achieve reliable genomic prediction of AMR.

19.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-24

Accuracy and Satisfaction in Multi-Turn LLM Dialogues for NFR Assessment

arXiv:2606.24834v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: LLM-based dialogue assistants have become mainstream tools for software developers, yet current evaluation benchmarks focus exclusively on functional correctness. This leaves a critical gap in assessing the quality and accuracy of these conversations when handling Non-Functional Requirements (NFRs), which are inherently vague, context-dependent, and involve many parts of a program. Evaluating how well these systems support collaborative reasoning about NFRs requires methods that go beyond single-turn accuracy to capture both the correctness of the system's outputs and the quality of the multi-turn interaction. In this paper, we investigate the accuracy and quality of multi-turn conversations between developers and an LLM-based agent in the domain of Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA) regulatory compliance. We hired 49 programmers to interact with GitHub Copilot to assess 148 HIPAA-derived NFRs against the iTrust codebase, a system designed to comply with HIPAA regulations, across three dimensions: requirement satisfaction level, reasoning, and code localization. We find that developers tend to agree with LLM assessments, but accuracy against expert ground truth is low. We model user satisfaction and find that longer system responses and more information-providing turns negatively affect user satisfaction, whereas proactive interactions positively affect it. Our findings provide insights for designing LLM-based dialogue systems that support NFR assessment.

20.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-24

Rare protein-coding variation and the genetic architecture of height in >1.4 million individuals

Highly heritable, polygenic, and easily measured, adult height has long been the model trait in human genetics. While the landscape of height-associated common genetic variation has been studied extensively, rare variation remains relatively unexplored. Using rare protein-altering variants in a discovery set of 826,066 exomes, we identify 207 height-associated genes - 98% of which replicate in an additional 624,567 individuals. The rarest and most deleterious class of variation, singleton (frequency

21.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-22

Effectiveness of Stress Management to Reduce Stress Eating for Women: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Intervention Studies

Objective: This systematic review and meta-analysis examined 1) the effects of stress management interventions on changes in stress eating for women, and 2) the longevity of these effects, by summarizing and assessing evidence from controlled and non-equivalent pretest-posttest intervention studies. Method: Five databases (PsycINFO, PubMed, Medline, Web of Science, CINAHL), existing sources, and grey literature were searched (February - June 2025). Studies that assessed stress eating or emotional eating, included a stress management intervention, and comprised at least 70% women were included. The primary outcome was reduction in stress eating. Data were pooled in meta-analyses using multi-level random-effects models and subset by follow-up period. Risk of bias was assessed via funnel plots and sensitivity analyses. Results: Sixty studies with 119 effect size estimates were included in the primary analysis. Pooled estimates indicated that stress management interventions significantly reduced stress eating (Hedges g = -0.4174, p < 0.001), with pre-post designs having larger effects than controlled trials. Subgroup analyses of follow-up periods found small effects in the short-term (before 3 months; Hedges g = -0.4202, p < 0.0001) and moderate effects for mid-term (3-6 months; Hedges g = -0.5886, p < 0.0001). Effects beyond 6 months were small and nonsignificant (Hedges g = -0.4370, p = 0.0660). Conclusion and Relevance: Stress management interventions appear to be effective for reducing stress eating for women, suggesting the potential to incorporate stress management in interventions targeting obesity. Effects may be only sustained 6 months post-intervention, suggesting the need for strategies to bolster long-term effectiveness.

22.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-18

Investigating Inductive Biases for Machine Learning Emulation of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings in Idealised Isca Simulations

arXiv:2606.18857v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Machine-learning emulators are increasingly used for weather prediction and have the potential to extend skill on subseasonal-to-seasonal timescales by learning dynamically important sources of predictability. A key challenge is whether the models can exploit predictability anchors, such as stratospheric variability, that influence tropospheric circulation beyond short lead times. We test how architectural inductive bias affects emulation of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) dynamics using paired idealised Isca simulations that differ only in an imposed wave-2 heating perturbation. Across convolutional, transformer, and graph-based architectures trained for one-step prediction, model differences are modest when the stratosphere is dynamically quiet but widen substantially when SSW-like variability is active. Our results identify explicit three-dimensional vertical coupling as a key inductive bias for machine-learning emulation of stratospheric dynamics. However, Eliassen-Palm flux diagnostics show that low forecast error does not guarantee physically faithful wave-mean-flow interaction, with coherent errors remaining in stratospheric wave-driving structure.

23.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-12

Reliability of Probabilistic Emulation of Physical Systems

arXiv:2606.12997v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Two dominant approaches have emerged for generating probabilistic forecasts of physical systems: generative models, such as diffusion or flow matching; and ensembles of deterministic models with stochasticity injected, trained using the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) loss. While both approaches have demonstrated strong predictive accuracy, the reliability of their uncertainties has not been systematically assessed. We address this gap by developing a framework to evaluate both approaches across diverse 2D spatiotemporal physical systems, under matched model size and computational budget. We assess the reliability of probabilistic emulation by inspecting the empirical coverage of predictive intervals, while also considering accuracy and computational efficiency metrics. CRPS-trained ensembles typically achieve more reliable uncertainties on both single-step prediction and autoregressive rollouts, demonstrating better coverage than the standard alternative of training generative models in a latent space. Moreover, the CRPS approach offers significantly faster inference. When generative models are trained in ambient rather than a compressed latent space, which is often infeasible for high-dimensional problems, they exhibit comparable coverage to CRPS-trained ensembles, though with substantially larger inference latency. In contrast, when CRPS-trained ensembles are trained in latent space they do not show a marked degradation in coverage with respect to ambient space. Both generative models and CRPS-trained ensembles demonstrate good predictive accuracy. To facilitate future research and application, we release AutoCast, a modular framework implementing both generative models and CRPS-trained ensembles, alongside AutoSim, a flexible dataset generation package for rapid prototyping.

24.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-17

Eigen-Spike Emergence and Quadratic Equivalents for Conjugate Kernels on Nonlinearly Separable Data

arXiv:2605.29669v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Recent work in random matrix theory (RMT) has developed the notion of deterministic equivalents: typically linear surrogate models that approximate the spectral behavior of large nonlinear random matrices, such as nonlinear feature maps in neural networks (NNs). Such equivalents make theoretical predictions tractable by reducing a complex model to a simpler one with properties that fall under the umbrella of classical RMT tools. However, this leaves open the question of whether this idealized linear equivalence remains meaningful for classification of high-dimensional nonlinearly separable data. Motivated by this, we consider the conjugate kernel (CK), which is the nonlinear feature map of a one-layer feedforward NN, under a canonical nonlinearly separable dataset for the XOR problem; and we use the study of informative outlier eigenvalues in the CK and whether their corresponding eigenvectors asymptotically align with XOR labels as a proxy for nonlinear learnability. We develop a robust quadratic equivalent of the CK matrix that enables a precise analysis of emergent informative spikes, as one modifies various knobs common in ML practice: sample complexity, signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), nonlinear activation choice, and pretrained features. We identify regimes in which these knobs move the CK beyond the linear equivalent and produce BBP-type transitions to label-aligned outlier eigenspaces. Our analysis helps bring deterministic-equivalence tools from RMT to bear on problems of practical relevance in ML.

25.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-17

Expanding SPHERE-JEPA: A Family of Statistical Regularizers for the Hypersphere

arXiv:2606.17603v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In Self-Supervised Learning (SSL), preventing representation collapse by explicitly enforcing a uniform distribution on the unit hypersphere has proven to be effective. However, current frameworks typically rely on sliced statistical regularizers such as SIGReg (used in LeJEPA) and SUSReg (used in SPHERE-JEPA), which approximate this continuous objective via Monte Carlo sampling along random 1D directions. This stochasticity injects projection variance into the training gradients, destabilizing optimization, and hindering convergence. In this work, we first show that analytically integrating out these random projections natively yields a deterministic Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD), bypassing the variance of sliced methods. Motivated by this equivalence, we formulate full-dimensional objectives for MMD, Kernel Stein Discrepancy (KSD), and Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence directly on the sphere to enforce a uniform distribution. To prevent spatial bias, we equip these tests with rotationally invariant kernels constructed via spectral theory, systematically evaluating two canonical families: smooth exponential decay (Heat) and strict frequency cutoff (Bandlimited) filters. Empirically, removing projection-induced noise results in more stable optimization, faster convergence, and consistent improvements over stochastic sliced regularizers on ImageNet and Galaxy10. Furthermore, we reveal that the choice of the statistical test shapes the geometry of the learned latent space: MMD and KSD favor locally clustered organization suitable for object-centric domains, whereas the continuous KDE-based KL divergence promotes fine-grained instance separation, yielding the strongest results on unclustered procedural texture retrieval.